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Goodbye from MH370 Defines 8th Arc :
First of 4 Iterative Reports
Vincent Lyne (BEng Hons, MEngSc, PhD)
Retired Scientist
Private Citizen
Hobart. Tasmania. Australia.
12th January 2021
Enquiries: Melissa Lyne (BSc)
Email: melissa.lyne@gmail.com
Preface to the Report Series (3rd December 2021)
Since the publication of this report on the 12th January 2021, additional information was
incorporated into 3 subsequent iterative reports, along with a manuscript on the eastward descent
of MH370 after the 6th arc. Interpretation of the Perth Canyon hydroacoustic signal reported here
was corrected to accommodate the sounds heard at Cape Leeuwin and Diego Garcia (this is reported
in the fourth and final iterative report). In addition, new evidence on satellite anomalies is reported
in the final report. All valid evidence plausibly intersects at the location reported here in
accordance with the thesis they all must at the one true location of MH370. These additional
reports are:
Second Report:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348677217_Scenario-free_Evidence-
based_Location_Range_of_MH370_and_Feedback_Assessment_of_Scenarios_Second_of_4_Iterativ
e_Reports
Third Report:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348742993_Resurrecting_Abandoned_Hydroacoustic_Ev
idence_of_MH370_From_Haystacks_to_Haystack_to_Needle_to_the_Remaining_Pinpoint_Third_of
_4_Iterative_Reports
Fourth Report:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349029540_Unravelled_Cryptic_Pathways_of_MH370-
Goodbye_and_Travel-
Path_Secrecy_Reveals_Landing_Details_and_Precise_Location_Final_of_4_Iterative_Reports
Eastward Descent Manuscript:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355162945_MH370_Eastward_Descent_After_the_6th_
Arc
Short Summary
The final hydroacoustic message from MH370 provides a vital 8th arc from the Perth Canyon that
signals a narrow landing range along the Broken Ridge near where the 33oS latitude is intersected
by the longitude of Penang at an ultra-deep hole approximately 6000 m deep.
Acknowledgements: What I’m proposing is a simple modification of the exhaustive set of
existing analyses by many. I wish to particularly acknowledge the work of Dr David Griffin
and his team for the drift modelling analyses and maps. The compelling discovery they made
is highly relevant to this new theory. Likewise, the critical evidence of sound recorded at the
Perth Canyon hydroacoustic station and analysed by Dr Alec Duncan and the team at Curtin
University. The extensive unsuccessful searches eliminated vast areas of the ocean from
speculation and helped refine the proposed location. I thank Dr Peter Last and many other
citizen scientists on blogs and internet websites who have contributed their thoughts and
ideas that helped with this reassessment. Any failures in relation to the new theory are
entirely mine and in no way related to any of the work conducted previously.
Disclaimer: The information in this document represents a personal thought exercise and
semi-quantitative reassessment of the circumstances surrounding the disappearance of the
Malaysian Airlines MH370 aircraft on the 8th March 2014. It does not represent the views,
nor does it have the explicit support, of any other individual or organisation. I make no
guarantees of the accuracy, relevance, or completeness of any information in the document,
which is provided in good faith in the hope that it will facilitate any future search effort.
However, any consequences of the use of any information contained or implied in this
document is at your sole risk and liability. I apologise in advance if anything I say on this
sensitive subject causes offence as it is not my intention to do so.
Personal Message: What I present is just theory only at this stage so don’t get your hopes
up, but at same time those who carry burdens of the past should never give up hope. The
human consequences embodied in the analyses have taken an emotional toll at times on me,
and I can begin to appreciate the utter despair of all those affected by this event, including
the many involved in the dedicated searches. Take heart that you are not alone. To those
affected by nay-sayers and cowards, be brave and resilient.
Map
Figure 1 shows the proposed approximate location of the MH370 landing site according to the
“Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge” (PB) theory at the intersection of the longitude of Penang and
the Broken Ridge system which spans west-east at a latitude slightly lower than that of Perth, and
about 1500 km west of Perth. The location is north of the previous searches and just outside of the
wide-area search envelope.
Figure 1. Approximate location of the proposed planned-MH370 landing site according to the Penang-longitude at Broken
Ridge (PB) theory, at the intersection of the longitude of Penang (red vertical line at about 100o16’ East longitude) and the
Broken Ridge system. Approximate deep water PB location is marked with the concentric red circles. The 8th arc from the
hydroacoustic signal is shown in red with an approximate centre at the Perth Canyon. As an aside, the latitude of Perth
(subject of some conjecture online) is approximately 60 NM (nautical miles) to the north from the PB location and about
half that distance from the main axis of the ridge, and about 1500 km distance between. The assumed flight paths are
shown in yellow comprising a southerly path shown aligned with the 96oE longitude, which turns easterly at about 33oS at
the southern edge of the Broken Ridge system. The two underwater and wide search areas are as indicated. Source and
Credit: Map modified from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau to indicate proposed landing site.
Public Release Summary
Despite an extensive search of the Indian and Southern Ocean, the location of Malaysia Airlines
Flight 370 (MH370), missing since March 2014, remains a mystery1. Careful analysis of seven
“handshake” communications between the aircraft and the Inmarsat satellite network identified
global geographic arcs along which the aircraft was located at different times. An anomalous 7th
handshake was the subject of much debate and speculation as it critically determines what may
have happened to the aircraft. Later discoveries of debris helped to materially narrow the search
area along the 7th arc. Anomalous sounds heard at the Perth Canyon were also thought to be due to
the aircraft, possibly imploding at depth, or otherwise crashing at the surface.
Two theories have been circulating, at times acrimoniously and disrespectfully, to explain the
mysterious disappearance:
The Fuel-Starvation Theory (FS): This theory was based the anomalous final handshake (along the
7th arc) which was assessed by experts as being due to the aircraft running out of fuel, the engines
flaming out, a Ram Air Turbine (RAT) being deployed from the fuselage to power batteries which
then initiated the anomalous “handshake” with the satellite as they were switched into action (after
some delay in complete power loss, requiring a logon request). The nature of the handshake and
observations of aircraft descent led investigators to conclude that the entire aircraft including pilots
were disabled, the aircraft was on autopilot, ran out of fuel and crashed violently at or near the 7th
arc.
1. The First Search using this theory and accounting for the aircraft veering off the 7th arc was
unsuccessful in the Southern Ocean.
2. The compelling drift experiments and simulations by Dr David Griffin and his team was
convincing enough to initiate the Second Search within a more localised highly probable area
near 35oS (which we label the “Griffin Location”), which unfortunately was also unsuccessful.
3. An anomalous hydroacoustic sound monitored at the Perth Canyon by Dr Alec Duncan and
his team from Curtin University could not match the sound source along the 7th arc, instead
the timing of the 7th arc (when the sound was supposed to have happened along the 7th arc)
pointed to a location near the Maldives nearly 3000 NM (nautical miles), and more than one
hour, away from the Perth Canyon. This was deemed impossible as it was well off the 7th arc.
But a long-time delay until implosion, which we have subsequently calculated to be 44
minutes if the sound came from our suggested location, could identify a location on the 7th
arc (which would be different to our location). However, those locations (to the north of our
location) are inconsistent with the drift model simulations.
4. The disappointments with the search now require a far more compelling case using this
theory for a new search, especially since the hydroacoustic signal seems to have been
dismissed as being plausible.
Disrespectful words have been used to describe the second theory—hence we use a more neutral
phrase to describe this theory.
The “Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge” Theory (PB): This theory posits that the aircraft path and
ultimate destination were meticulously planned and implemented so that there would be minimal
debris (which requires a very careful belly landing leaving as little debris as possible, and much of the
aircraft structure intact—as seen possible from the Hudson River landing in 2009) and minimal or no
1 A summary of the circumstances surrounding the disappearance of MH370 is available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370
communications to disclose the location of the plane, requiring manual switching on and off of
switches. The chosen destination was precise and meaningful—hence the Penang longitude,
because of its significance as the aircraft dipped its wings past Penang, and it had home-town
significance to one pilot. The destination also is in ultra-deep water, making any sonar search
difficult if not impossible as the deep areas will be filled with many hundreds of meters of sediment
and surrounded by sonar-confounding irregular deep structures. The designated location, where the
Penang longitude intersects the Broken Ridge system (we term this the PB location) also “breaks” at
this point from the Diamantina Fracture Zone to the south east. This fractured area is an area of high
turbulence meaning any debris would be scattered quickly, but at same time any debris west of this
site would all accumulate at this critical point before being drifted around to the north and north
west towards Africa. From several points of view this location was of great significance as a landing
site.
The PB theory predicts:
1. The First Search would be unsuccessful as it was far south of the PB location.
2. The Second Search was close, but the PB location was not far, and out of the search range.
The simulated FS debris drift paths are highly compatible with the PB location because the
best debris simulations from the 7th arc are constrained by the topography of Broken Ridge
to join up and pass by this funnel-choke-point location at the end of the Broken Ridge
system.
3. The hydroacoustic sound heard at the Perth Canyon could indeed have come from this
location, identified as an 8th arc, for a range of plausible aircraft average speeds along the
descent path and a plausible range of time delays till the sound was generated up to at most
15 minutes from landing – as shown in Figure 2. This theory rejects the notion that the
sound could have come from the time of the 7th arc as sound waves travel more than 6 times
faster than the aircraft and the sound source would be located well away in a location like
the Maldives. The comparison of the two theories using the acoustic signal is the most
compelling new information that rejects the FS theory in favour of a highly probable PB
theory.
4. A future search near this location would be more localised and contained than past searches
but it will be in an ultra-deep area of deep sediment layers, fractured seafloor topography,
turbulent deep-water current, but in an area of global deep-water biodiversity and fisheries
significance. Even without the possible Penang link, this would be the choice for a well-
planned undiscoverable site.
5. The 7th arc handshake with this theory is presumed to be due to manual switching, possibly
of the RAT (Ram Air Turbine) system to ensure battery power was available up to, and after,
landing; or manual switching like the first handshake logon (which was not due to engine
flameouts). The observed descent from the handshake analysis is also consistent with the
aircraft veering to the left and commencing its descent along the Broken Ridge direction.
6. The very careful landing may have left airtight structures intact leading to an implosion (but
the theory is agnostic as to whether an implosion did or did not occur) at depth which we
are guessing would occur soon after landing and no more than 5 minutes after landing. We
make no distinction whether the sound was due to landing (which requires a slower average
aircraft descent path speed) or implosion (requiring a faster average aircraft speed). The
critical element was that a sound was heard, and we can now with confidence say that it
was from the aircraft location.
The FS theory failed in guiding the first search, the second search and the hydroacoustic analysis.
The PB theory is consistent will all evidence, and importantly with a reinterpretation of the
hydroacoustic signal which identifies that the source is not at the Maldives but indeed at or near the
PB location. The PB theory rejects the interpretation of the 7th arc handshake as being due to fuel
starvation, and that the aircraft crashed along or near the 7th arc. Instead, a belly landing and
implosion are all possible and within the limited ambit of plausible aircraft speeds and time delays to
the sound, if not due to the landing. The PB theory is far more robust in being able to account for the
human and aircraft elements of the mystery.
Uncertainty of the PB location
Uncertainties in the PB location are areas around that location that plausibly satisfy the two main
evidence: 1) the compelling drift simulations; and 2) the-now plausible hydroacoustic signal must be
observed precisely at 1:30 UTC at the Perth Canyon station (give or take the estimated at-source
spread of the signal). In addition, the landing must be a glide, not a crash.
The aircraft uncertainties in relation to the evidence are:
1. Where the aircraft lands
2. How fast was it travelling until it landed?
3. How long did it take from landing before the sound was generated?
If we look at the 8th arc in Figure 1, first the northern half of the displayed arc is more possible as any
extension into the southern half leads to a longer aircraft path. This can only be satisfied by
increasing the aircraft speed and/or reducing the time to sound generation. We have less than 15
minutes up our sleeve for this to happen, and probably much less if we consider that time is
necessary to facilitate a smooth landing and a gradual descent and slowing down from the cruising
speed. At the northern half, the opposite is true and there is not enough distance to afford a glide
landing, so a crash landing is the only possibility for the upper half of this curve (as it is within the
envelop for the fuel-starvation crash scenario). So, this evidence only allows a narrow extension
north and south of the PB location.
With respect to the drift evidence, all positions along Broken Ridge up to the 7th arc are possible with
the drift evidence and the sound, but only the latter half, towards PB location, is consistent with a
glide landing scenario of 100+ NM glide is required for this to be possible.
So, in summary the uncertainty in the PB theory extends from the middle of the Broken Ridge up to
a widening but restricted spread at the PB location. No other region is consistent for the sound
source with the drift analyses and the requirements for a glide landing.
Special Clues: There were two vital clues that facilitated this analysis: 1) the unanticipated final
goodbye sound from MH370, defining an 8th arc, and 2) the unique oceanography of the region and
the restricted west-east flow at Broken Ridge controlled by a law more powerful than the Black
Knight that stops currents crossing the Broken Ridge: Geostrophy2. You can disable the Black Knight
but Geostrophy will not let you pass3. Hence, all drifters had to flow along the Broken Ridge and pass
by the PB location – the key unexplainable clue that the PB location and the Griffin location were
intimately linked. The PB-Griffin remarkable marriage allowed the locations joint custody of the
2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostrophic_current
3 Don’t be deterred though, you can overcome Geostrophy, but there are other monumental consequences of
stopping the Earth spinning which you will also have to overcome. It’s best for you and us, to just let it pass
and not invent the Geostrophy Annihilation Device.
drifter results despite their physical separation. Likewise, rejection of the fuel-starvation theory
finally allowed us to turn and hear MH370 sound off its final goodbye to tell us where it was located.
I am unable to explain how the thoughts of Penang, leading to a reanalysis of the sound, entered my
head; I can hear it now but can’t explain how. Along with many others, I closely followed
developments in the search for MH370. My own thoughts culminated in a talk I gave in March 2019
on incorporating human elements into solving complex system science problems4, where I intuitively
identified the complex deep region at the eastern end of the Broken Ridge as the most likely hiding
location for MH370. Those thoughts incubated in my mind, and on the day of Capitol Hill riots (6th
January 2021) I woke with a mental image of a longitude line drawn from Penang to the region I
marked out in March 2019—which led to this report. We now enter the justification stage described
by Bowers, Regeher et al. (1990): “The largely unconscious processes involved in generating hunches
is quite different from the conscious processes required to test them—thereby vindicating the
classical distinction between the context of discovery and the context of justification.”
May all innocent rest in peace.
4 http://english.igsnrr.cas.cn/ue/hs/201904/t20190422_208703.html
Introduction to the Review
The comprehensive, extensive and thorough analyses of limited available evidence surrounding the
disappearance of Malaysian Airlines 370 (MH370) on the 8th March 2014 failed to find the aircraft.
The difficulties with the search have been compared by many to searching for just one needle within
a field of haystacks. Much has been written and discussed about MH370 so I will get to the point and
not unnecessarily repeat the existing material. I will instead draw upon the relevant evidence and
analyses together to test them against the “Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge” (PB) theory which is
as described in the Public Release Summary.
The plan is to show the postulated landing site in relation to the previous searches; and then discuss
evidence and analyses in relation to the theory.
The “Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge” (PB) Theory Landing Site
Background on the site
Figure 1 shows the proposed approximate location of the MH370 landing site according to the PB
theory at the intersection of the longitude of Penang and the Broken Ridge system which spans
west-east at a latitude slightly lower than that of Perth, and about 1500 km west. The location is
north of the previous searches and just outside of the wide area search envelope. The 7th arc
intersects the Broken Ridge structure at approximately 32o30’S and the distance from this
intersection to the PB location is about 420 km.
Background to the oceanography of the region
As background, here’s a brief overview of the oceanography of the region:
Areas to the south of Broken Ridge are over 4000 m deep; the crest of the ridge in the north rises
above 2000 m; areas to the north are in general shallower than those to the south as seen by the
color in Figure 1. At the PB site, the fracturing is more extensive as this is the boundary between the
Broken Ridge system and the Diamantina Fracture Zone to the south west. Depths at the PB location
reach down to about 6000 m. Oceanographically, due to the earth’s rotation, the broad depth
disparities between north and south cause interior ocean currents (as opposed to surface wind drift)
to track the ridge system rather than flowing across it, although at depth waves and turbulent flows
may be more intense and frequent in general. The increased turbulence may lead to greater
accumulation of sediments in depressions, many hundreds of meters thick, and at the base of the
ridge system. Of some consolation is that due to its high productivity, ridges, seamounts and ultra
depths, this is a unique global area of special deepwater biodiversity containing a conservation site
to the east5. But it also subject to fishing and debris from activities, because of its high and unique
productivity. The Calcite Compensation Depth6 in the region is at about 4300 m, meaning that
calcium carbonate structures below this level will dissolve.
At the eastern end of the Broken Ridge system where it ends, the broad depth disjunction changes
so that the northern areas are deeper, but the disparity is not as large as that across the ridge. The
sudden change in topography around the PB location would cause turbulence, and the “break” in
the ridge system now allows the easterly currents to change direction, curl around and eventually
sweep north-westerly towards Africa.
Further oceanographic details of the Indian Ocean can be found in (Hayes, Lyne et al. 2005) and
(Lyne and Hayes 2005).
5 http://www.apsoi.org/sites/default/files/documents/meetings/SC-03-06.3.2%2801%29%20Proposal-EAST-
BROKEN-RIDGE.pdf
6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonate_compensation_depth
Analysis of the hydroacoustic sound
The original analysis of the hydroacoustic sound heard at the Perth Canyon was analysed assuming it
came at the time (as opposed to the location along, since the location could not be matched) of the
7th arc handshake. This baseline timing, and the time difference when it was heard, led the analysis
team to conclude that the most likely location for the signal was near the Maldives, and not on the
7th arc, thereby requiring a new mystery theory for explanation if correct.
We reanalysed this sound by assuming that it was generated only after the aircraft landed at the PB
location creating the sound, or after airtight vessels descended leading to implosion(s). Our theory is
agnostic as to whether it was a surface sound or implosion – which should be resolved from an
analysis of the signature of the sound.
This scenario most likely requires a smooth landing of the aircraft with the fuselage largely intact as
per the Hudson River landing in 20097, where the aircraft was intact despite losing an engine (and
with the RAT deployed) – which in turn suggests that the engines bear large hydraulic pressure
forces in such situations without the need for additional braking from flaperons - which would be
best retracted (as it was when found) to facilitate hydroplaning, although I’m unsure how that is to
happen with the aircraft landing? There will be way more than enough braking from the engines
now being turned into hydro-ram intakes considering that the density of water is some 800 times
that of air. The resolution of this conundrum is best left for expert reassessment to reconcile the
retracted aerofoil debris with an expected extended one on landing, but then again this was no
ordinary landing and there was no need for any brakes or deliberate slowing to not run out of
runway. A sudden drop of power would rapidly bring the plane to a halt at a precise location.
Pressure in the ocean increases roughly by one atmosphere per 10 m of descent. By about 250 m the
outside pressure is roughly equivalent to that inside a medical oxygen tank, and by 1500 m the
pressure is about that within a welding oxygen tank. Implosion requires any loss of air to be more
than balanced by the rate of pressure accumulation during descent, so implosion is far more likely
during a rapid descent phase. Large light structure air vessels would not need to go down very far to
implode. A walking pace descent would require no more than a few minutes for a large vessel, and
as a rough estimate 5 minutes should be long enough. Note that the imploded Argentine submarine
vessel was located at 900m: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46248970; so
pressures are extreme.
With those assumptions, here are rough estimates for the reanalysis (and I would encourage others
to correct, modify/refine and update this analysis as necessary). NM is nautical miles, 1 NM is
equivalent to 1.85 km.
Variable
Value
Comment
Distance from Perth Canyon to
Maldives sound site (2.3oS,
73.7
o
E)
2923 NM
Straight “Line” distance from Google Earth Pro
Distance from Perth Canyon to
the PB location
780 NM
Straight “Line” distance from Google Earth Pro
7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549. The ram air turbine (RAT), which pops out from the
underbelly when both engines fail, was deployed in this instance (and would have triggered a handshake as
power was shunted to the batteries) to provide power to the batteries.
Distance from 7th arc to PB
location
225 NM
Straight “Line” distance from Google Earth Pro.
Eye-balled intersection of 7th arc and Broken
Ridge
Speed of Sound in Seawater
2916 NM/hour
Rough estimate. Just over one hour from 7th-
arc handshake to sound reception (7th
handshake at 0:19 UTC and reception at 1:30
UTC)8. Note this speed is about 6 times the
cruise speed of MH370.
The calculation is straight forward:
1. Compute the time difference for sound travel between the two scenarios: Maldives to Perth
Canyon; PB location to Perth Canyon.
2. Assume this time difference (about 44 minutes) is due the sum of time for the aircraft to
travel to its location (Ttravel) and time delay for implosion (Tbang): Ttravel + Tbang ~ 44 mins
3. The average speed of the aircraft to travel from the 7th arc to the PB location affects how the
total time is partitioned between these two times, which can now be converted to
unknowns in the average speed and Tbang.
The relationship between the average aircraft speed and the time delay to implosion is shown in
Figure 2.
8 https://www.nature.com/news/sound-clue-in-hunt-for-mh370-1.15390
Figure 2 Relationship between average aircraft speed to travel from the 7th arc to the PB location, and the time delay
(points at every minute) to implosion, shown with the green dots. For completeness with the fuel starvation theory, we
include a scenario, shown by the red dots, for the aircraft landing halfway along at about 115 NM from the 7th arc due to
controlled gliding without engine power. Remember that a landing at the time of the 7th arc takes us back to the Maldives,
unless the delay to implosion (meaning intact vessels from a controlled landing, not a crash, and then a delay to an
implosion) is very long (up to about 44 minutes in the middle of a very deep ocean, very unlike the Hudson River).
The main implications are:
1. An implosion/sound time delay of up to 5 minutes requires an average speed between 315
and 350 NM/hour.
2. Faster speeds lead to a faster than linear increase in the implosion time up to about 20
minutes at the cruising speed.
3. The extreme scenario of the aircraft landing at the 7th arc and generating the sound heard at
the Perth Canyon requires an implosion time delay of about 44 minutes. Under this scenario,
the sound cannot be generated on landing at the time of the 7th arc (otherwise we are back
to the sound being generated off the Maldives and yet another mystery theory!). Instead,
the aircraft floats and then in total takes 44 minutes before it implodes at depth. This is a far
more unlikely scenario but one that must be considered for completeness with a low
probability in any comprehensive spatial probability assessment of the likely locations. We
do not want to repeat the risk of relying upon the most likely scenario, but media reports,
if correct, of an extended search by Ocean Infinity in this vicinity would lead us to discount
this possibility9 - to be confirmed. If confirmed this shifts the focus to our preferred
locations.
9 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/02/mh370-us-team-extends-mission-after-failing-to-find-
plane-in-initial-search-zone
Comparison with the drift modelling results
Figure 3 shows the PB location relative to the best drift simulations by Dr David Griffin and his team,
that match the debris found off eastern Africa and its islands.
Figure 3 Drift trajectories from the work of Dr David Griffin and his team10 showing the trajectories of particles drifting
from the 8 March 2014 until 16 June 2016 starting from within the green polygon near 35°S (upper) and 40°S (lower) on
the 7th arc. The intersection of the red lines shows the PB location. Note the west to east drift of particles along Broken
Ridge just past the 100oE location before particles curve around to all head towards the north west or west, but they do
not reach the coast of Australia.
Salient points to note in the comparison are:
1. Drift at the Broken Ridge location is constrained west to east from the release point after an
initial westward flow before being entrained in the easterly Broken Ridge current.
2. Recall the earlier oceanography background which discussed why the currents in this region
are forced to follow the Broken Ridge discontinuity and why the currents curve around once
they are past Broken Ridge at its eastern end near the PB boundary. This forces the drift to
flow past the PB location (albeit later).
3. This is a relatively persistent feature forced upon the interior currents by the topography,
and we can thus conclude that all conclusions reached from the drift analysis also applies to
the PB location in relation to the drift of the debris.
4. We conclude that the drift simulations are not inconsistent with the PB location as the
source of the debris.
10 https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5772119/mh370_ocean_driftv29.pdf
5. Dispersal of any debris once past the PB location is rapid and extensive as evident from the
drift tracks. In other words, the likelihood of locating debris rapidly diminishes with time.
Was this known or unknown in selecting the site? We suspect it was unknown at the time.
Features such as the “Break” in Broken Ridge are well known sites of turbulence in the ocean
and sites of higher productivity used by many oceanic species, and by fishing fleets. So, there
is also a higher likelihood of confounding debris, in addition to rapid spread.
6. One final point to note is that the nature of circulatory flow in the north western part of the
region prevents mid-ocean debris accumulation (mid-ocean garbage patch), so all debris are
likely to be scattered towards Africa before making another round if not beached11.
Final Handshake
Reconciliation of the PB and fuel-starvation theories are only possible for a very long glide towards
PB as discussed previously. However, it will be useful to consider other scenarios for the handshake.
There are two features of the handshake and aircraft behaviour that must be accounted:
1. An electrical switching event that triggered a logon handshake.
2. A rapid descent phase of the aircraft.
Electrical Switching
Here’s an excerpt from the (ATSB 2015) report:
The earlier SDU log on request at 18:25 UTC was also considered likely to have been due to a power
interruption. As this power interruption was not due to engine-flame outs, it is possible that it was
due to manual switching of the electrical system. Therefore it is possible that the aircraft’s electrical
configuration was not in the normal state (i.e. the left IDG powering the left AC bus and the right IDG
powering the right AC bus) at the time that the first engine flamed out. (footnote 19, page 33).
The explanation allows the possibility that the handshake may not have been due to flame outs. In
the fuel starvation scenario, both engines flame out which forces the RAT (Rapid Air Turbine) to pop
out from the fuselage and then power the aircraft’s vital controls by switching to battery power. This
switching initiates the handshake. Suppose and this is a question for the experts to answer, the RAT
is manually activated, would this trigger the handshake?
The other question is “Why would this be done?” One answer is that it will be too late to do so once
the aircraft lands on water and all engine power is lost, and the battery switching on takes time. If
the RAT was manually deployed, in anticipation of engines shutting down, battery power and hence
control of flaps and other controls, plus cockpit power and instruments is ensured well before the
event12. The other scenario is a glide landing along the ridge, or just south of it, if fuel starvation
happened.
11 https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-indian-oceans-great-disappearing-garbage-patch/
12 Although landing with electrical power on in salt water does raise other questions.
We conclude that fuel starvation may not be the only viable explanation for the final handshake and
this needs to be reassessed as an event by itself and separate from the rapid descent context. The
excerpt quoted above says that other explanations are possible.
Rapid Descent Phase
The PB theory requires the aircraft to commence turning precisely where the 7th arc intersects the
Broken Ridge system, in preparation for a smooth controlled glide landing. It is reasonable for the
plane to then shift from a southerly cruise mode to begin the landing phase. With a turn thrown in, it
is not unreasonable for the aircraft to begin the descent.
Summary
1. Despite an extensive search of the Indian and Southern Ocean, the location of Malaysia
Airlines Flight 370 (MH370), missing since March 2014, remains a mystery13. Careful analysis
of seven “handshake” communications between the aircraft and the Inmarsat satellite
network identified global geographic arcs along which the aircraft was located at different
times. Investigators concluded that the anomalous final handshake (along the 7th arc) was
due to the aircraft running out of fuel and subsequently landing somewhere along that arc in
the Southern Ocean.
2. Early airborne searches, days after the disappearance, for floating debris focussed
unsuccessfully in an area around the middle and north-west of the Broken Ridge system14.
3. The first search in the Southern Ocean, predicated on the fuel starvation hypothesis, failed
to find the aircraft.
4. Later comprehensive investigations based on the fuel starvation hypothesis and drift
analyses of MH370 debris findings, including a flaperon found in July 2015, led Dr David
Griffin and his team to conclude that a compelling highly probable localised landing site
existed, north of the first search in the southern Indian Ocean, near 35oS along the 7th arc.
This site was consistent with the debris finds, and just as important, with the lack of debris
off the west and southern coasts of Australia. But the deep-water search around that
location was also unsuccessful.
5. I challenge the fuel-starvation (FS) theory used in the previous analyses with an alternative
“Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge” (PB) posit that the landing site is along the deep-water
axis of the Broken Ridge fracture at the longitude of Penang. That location is more
meaningful and consistent with the findings of the comprehensive detailed and painstaking
investigations of the FS theory up to the final handshake moment.
6. The FS and PB theories depart from then on in that the FS theory has the aircraft continuing
south to crash, presumably violently, from an unspecified latitude location (later refined
through drift analyses) when it runs out of fuel. Whereas the PB theory leads to an abrupt
eastward turn at a specific latitude along, or near, the Broken Ridge west-east axis or at
33oS. The available evidence is not inconsistent with, and indeed supports, the notion that
the PB landing was planned to be: 1) as smooth as possible to minimise debris; 2) along an
west-east turn from the 7th arc in preparation for its final descent path, which also may
have involved manual switching leading to the final handshake; 3) in deep waters of the
Broken Ridge system surrounded by irregular bathymetric structures that may confound
sonar searches; 4) along the Broken Ridge channel that contains some of the deepest waters
of the region; and speculation that the intention was to land , 5) at the longitude location of
Penang.
7. Perhaps (5) is far-fetched, but speculatively consistent with the aircraft dipping its wing
during a Penang flyby and its personal home-town significance15. Furthermore, this location
at the longitude of Penang (~ 100o16’) is also where the regional Broken Ridge “breaks” and
joins with the Diamantina Fracture Zone, in water depths nearing 6000 m, and exceeding
7000 m nearby, and near the 33oS latitude which would facilitate simple navigation.
13 A summary of the circumstances surrounding the disappearance of MH370 is available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370
14 See for example: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-23/aaron-halstead-describes-mh370-search-
area/5339468?nw=0
15 https://www.newser.com/story/259236/theory-on-mh370s-dipped-wing-gets-new-attention.html
8. But, the location is about 200 NM (nautical miles) from the 7th arc turn and not within reach
by a fuel-starved active gliding aircraft as the glide range is limited to about 100 NM - ATSB
(2015), pages 32-33. Our theory can only be invoked if the final handshake is not due to
fuel starvation. The location is: not inconsistent with the compelling drift analyses, and not
far from their identified site along the 7th arc; in fractured and deep water that may be
difficult for sonar searches; and may have symbolic significance in relation to the “Broken
Ridge” name and feature, and the Penang-longitude link.
9. The intended landing location is consistent with and may provide a plausible explanation for
the persistent southerly and offshore location of the FS flight path determined from the
handshakes; in that sufficient west to east distance was required to undertake the final very
smooth descent flight track after the turn from the southerly to easterly track.
10. A reassessment with the new theory of the sound heard at the hydroacoustic site at the
Perth Canyon shifts the sound location from the Maldives to near the PB location - if the
sound was generated not long after landing. This matchup would largely eliminate the
autopilot-aircraft fuel-starvation hypothesis, and in its absence a deliberate landing
scenario becomes viable.
11. In summary, the PB theory provides a triad of geographic links (latitude, longitude, depth),
suggests active decisions on the landing site (Broken Ridge and Penang links), refocuses
attention on the hydroacoustic sound, the planned path to the site, and is more consistent
with other available evidence, analyses, and reanalyses. It binds every bit of valid evidence
together except the original hypothesis.
12. We conclude that the PB theory implications provides a more consistent plausible
explanation for the technical and human-decision aspects in the location and path to a
unique planned landing site – not far from, but outside, the previous search envelope.
The comparison between the two theories and their implications are summarised in Table 1.
Table 1 Comparison of the implications of the Fuel Starvation Theory (FS) and the “Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge”
Theory (PB) for the various flight path stages of MH370 indicated in the left-hand column. An assessment of the
implications is provided for each cell and an overall conclusion is provided.
Path
FS Interpretation
PB Interpretation
North to South till 7th
Handshake
Autopilot Control
Eventual Fuel Starvation
Violent Crash
Unsuccessful First Search
Planned Direct Path to Broken Ridge
Controlled Flight
Not Lifeless Aircraft
Accords with Unsuccessful First Search
7th Handshake
Fuel Starvation
Rapid Violent Crash
Controlled Southerly to Easterly Turn
Manual Electrical Switching
(Possible Manual RAT deployment to
Switch to Battery Power Control)
Handshake not due to Fuel Starvation
Debris Finds off Africa
7th Arc Crash near 35oS
Unsuccessful Second
Search
Glided Landing at Penang-longitude at
Broken Ridge
Second Search not close enough to PB
location
Detected Sound at
Perth Canyon
Hydroacoustic Station
Crash off Maldives
Not Plausible
Implosion/sound after glided landing at
Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge
possibly leaving some airtight vessels
intact
Highly Plausible
CONCLUSION Fuel Starvation Unlikely PB Scenario Highly Plausible
Conclusions
Major Conclusions:
Two Major Conclusions are possible:
1. Available evidence, including sound from a possible final implosion, and assuming fuel
starvation, identifies a potential MH370 location along the Broken Ridge, between the 7th
arc and east to a highly probable location where the longitude of Penang intersects the
ridge. Resolution of the uncertainty requires resolution of whether the 7th handshake was
due to fuel starvation, and the time of the sound (presumably, and unlikely, from the
surface crash) since landing.
2. If fuel starvation is not a factor, as suggested by searches conducted at greater possible
aircraft range, the location is the “Penang-longitude at Broken Ridge” at about 33oS,
110o16’E and 6000 m water depth. This location is consistent with all evidence, including
plausible-verification that the sound heard at the Perth Canyon – the hydroacoustic 8th arc
- was from the aircraft; possibly imploding rather than crashing after an active glide
landing. Areas north along the 8th arc are possible but discounted as they are within/near
to the wide search area. However, it would be highly advisable to reassess this as an
alternative less-probable scenario before commencing any search. The PB location would
provide closure to the human question of “why there?”. It does however eliminate fuel
starvation as the cause of the final handshake; this seems probable as the handshake
character resembled the first handshake when the aircraft wasn’t fuel starved (see: ATSB
(2015) footnote 19 on page 33), or with the RAT (Ram Air Turbine) being manually
deployed to switch to battery power as the engines will be taken out immediately on
landing with no time for the RAT to deploy (this suggestion should be reviewed by relevant
experts).
If one final assessment is to be selected, the fuel starvation hypothesis is discounted as the aircraft
was within its flight range, and most importantly the PB theory can explain that the sound heard
at the Perth Canyon was from the vicinity of that location, and not the Maldives. Conclusion (2) is
therefore preferred and indicated in Figure 1.
Other Scenario Possibilities:
1. The analysis of the implosion sound is conditional upon the average speed of the aircraft to
the PB location, and the time delay from landing before the sound is generated. If the
average speed of the aircraft was at its normal cruising speed (480 NM/hour), the sound is
generated 15 minutes after landing. An immediate sound after landing requires an average
aircraft speed of just over 300 NM/hour. This range of speeds and time delay is within the
realms of possibility and confirms that the sound could have been generated by the aircraft
at the PB location rather than from a far-off location at the Maldives (according to the time
of the fuel-starvation theory).
2. Provided the fuel-starvation (FS) hypothesis is correct, ancillary evidence from drift analyses
of a small number of debris, early sightings of surface debris, speculation on motives
including the goodbye dip of the aircraft’s wing past Penang, and the possible fuel starvation
event at the 7th arc, suggest that while the intention was possibly to land at the PB location,
this may have been thwarted by fuel starvation leading to a pre-mature glide landing at a
location near PB that requires a glide of some 100+ NM. We contend that this scenario of an
elementary error in assessing fuel load is unlikely but present it here for completeness.
3. Finally, if our reassessment is right, the major lesson learnt here is that the autopilot-
aircraft-crashing-along-the-7th-arc theory possibly unintentionally misled the initial search,
the second search, and the hydroacoustic analyses. There is no guarantee that our
predictions are correct, but even so, field investigations must be guided by considering all
viable scenarios rather than focussing on one that may be flawed. To some of us, the Broken
Ridge scenario was highly plausible, and one that should have been included early on. In that
context, the final handshake fuel starvation hypothesis should be critically reinvestigated
given failures in past searches and analyses based on this hypothesis.
Final Remarks
My intention with this assessment is to spur renewed respectful debate, discussion and reanalysis of
existing hypotheses, and reanalyses of existing information and studies with modified hypotheses
and ideas of what might have happened. I have no intention and I hope I have not in any way been
disrespectful to those who have devoted a great deal of effort, careful thought, and devotion to
resolving this mystery; and suffering inconsolable disappointments.
Best of luck to all in resolving this mystery. Take care.
References
ATSB (2015). MH370 - Definition of Underwater Search Areas. A. T. S. Bureau. Canberra. Australian
Capital Territory. Australia.: 64pp.
Bowers, K. S., G. Regeher, C. Balthazard and K. Parker (1990). "Intuition in the Context of Discovery."
Cognitive Psychology 22: 72-110.
Hayes, D., V. Lyne, S. A. Condie and G. Hallegraeff (2005). Collation and analysis of oceanographic
datasets for national marine bioregionalisation. A. A report to the National Oceans Office.
Department of Environment and Heritage and CSIRO Marine Research. Hobart. Tasmania: 236.
Lyne, V. and D. Hayes (2005). Pelagic regionalisation: National marine bioregionalisation integration
project. A report to the National Oceans Office. Department of Environment and Heritage and CSIRO
Marine Research, Australia.: 169.
KML File used was from: https://pastebin.com/uyEWAs44
