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Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future?

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Abstract

Based on a broad sample of 66 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) covering 1992–2016, this study constructs the pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade networks using complex network theory to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the natural gas trade network for countries and regions along the BRI. Also, this study forecasts the future performances of the BRI area's natural gas trade pattern from a panoramic perspective up to the year 2030. Overall, the results indicate that LNG trade along the BRI develops rapidly, while the development of PNG trade is relatively stable. Moreover, both PNG and LNG trade networks along the BRI tend to be more compact, implying that the trade link between countries and regions along the BRI is deepening. In addition, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, such as China and India, is accelerating to become the high-speed development area for natural gas trade along the BRI, especially since the BRI proposed in 2013. Finally, several policy implications for helping the later construction of BRI and promoting growth in this area's natural gas trade are provided.

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... Since the first maritime transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 1958 from Lake Charles in the USA to the UK, the natural gas trade has seen significant growth [1]. Global consumption increased rapidly during the period 2000-2016, from 2404.6 to 3670.4 bcm per year, with an average annual growth rate of 2.50% [2]. Compared to conventional liquid fuels, natural gas is advantageous both in terms of its environmental footprint and its production costs [3]. ...
... Focusing more on natural gas, ref. [12] constructed the global gas network using BP reporting data for the period 2000-2011. Ref. [2] based their analysis on a sample of 66 countries in the Belt and Road Initiative trade area, seeking to conduct a comparative analysis of LNG and pipeline (PNG) trade networks, while [8] expanded the analysis of LNG trade to 215 countries for the period 2000-2021, thus examining the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the port level, ref. [11] exploited massive ship trajectory data and mapped the most well-connected ports in the network from 2013 to 2017 to identify the hub ports for global trade. ...
... To investigate the spatial structure of these networks, many different indicators from complex network theory were employed [39], as follows: (a) Network density has been exploited in studies several times, with [2,8] finding a steady increase in the density of both the LNG and PNG trade; (b) Two studies [8,11] concluded that the network clustering factor, and thus the tightness of trade links, showed a steady increase, while [2,12] added that this increase is more rapid in the case of LNG versus PNG; (c) The average shortest path length of a route was shown to have a long-term decrease, and hence that trading partners are more directly linked to each other, showing strong fluctuations [8,11]; (d) Other studies [2,12] found a significant increase in the centrality of connection degrees in LNG trade networks, while monopolistic features were shown to be more pronounced in the exporter market, as exemplified by Qatar, which owned 10.25% of the global market share in 2000 and 31.01% of the global market share in 2011; and (e) Studies [11,12] have mapped the distribution of the degree of connectivity to examine whether a network is a scale-free network, showing that a narrow core of nodes is becoming increasingly important for the network. ...
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The shift of European countries to more environmentally friendly sources of energy is leading to an increase in the share of natural gas in the energy mix. At the same time, the flexibility and cost-effectiveness of maritime transport are making liquefied natural gas (LNG) more competitive compared to traditional forms of natural gas, despite recent geopolitical, health and economic events threatening its supply chain. The aim of this study is to analyze the European LNG import network using network theory indicators to identify trading communities in the network and to investigate the security of supply through network failure simulation. The network model was developed using a programming code in MATLAB R2022B software. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: (a) a shift in the center of gravity of LNG trade from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic shores was identified; (b) a gradual consolidation of Europe’s import network was noted; (c) an increasing dependence of Europe on a limited number of countries was observed; and (d) the most critical nodes for network resilience were identified through modeling. Based on these findings, recommendations are proposed to strengthen Europe’s energy security and independence.
... Infrastructure (hard and soft infrastructure, e.g., transport infrastructure, communication infrastructure, financial infrastructure, and border-transport efficiency) plays a vital role in the development of international trade through firms [5,6]. Various types of infrastructure are services that are provided by the government or private institutions to link production and consumption. ...
... Empirical evidence shows that a 1 % increase in distance reduces trade by 60.63 % on average in the short run. In the long run, on average, a 40.7 % reduction in trade occurs due to a 1 % increase in distance [6,58]. also supported our findings, that is, an increase in distance in terms of kilometers (from origin to destination) reduces trade because it charges higher transport costs due to several reasons (i.e., fuel and time). ...
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Infrastructure and geography are the most important components of international trade. They provide trade-oriented amenities for the trade volume among trading partners. Thus, this study assesses the simultaneous impact of infrastructure and geographic factors on trade in Asian economies from 2004 to 2020. This work contributes to the existing literature by exploring the significance of infrastructure and geography in international trade. Furthermore, this research seeks to determine whether these factors have complementary or simultaneous effects. To examine these aspects, the augmented gravity model and cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags are used in the current model. Then, the multilateral resistance terms are corrected. Results reveal that infrastructure has a significant and positive impact on trade. More precisely, transport infrastructure, communication infrastructure, financial infrastructure, and border-transport efficiency are productive influencers for trade over a certain period. Notably, the simultaneous impacts of infrastructure and geographic factors can lead to the deterioration of trade volume. The policy implications and future research direction of this study suggest that economies should improve infrastructure and geographic factors through gross domestic product.
... The concept of green growth was first proposed in the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) in 2005. Green growth emphasizes that, when reducing poverty and improving human well-being through economic growth, countries should focus on transforming economic growth and consumption patterns, improving the ecological efficiency of economic growth, and coordinating environmental and economic development [6], so as to achieve sustainable development goals. The concept of green growth takes green economy, low-carbon economy, and circular economy it will inhibit green growth; when it exceeds a certain threshold, it will promote green growth. ...
... On the other hand, high-level human capital with good environmental awareness [50] will increase the consumption proportion of environmentally friendly, green, and low-pollution consumer goods that are conducive to green growth. In addition, consumption structure upgrade will also force the production sector to improve and iterate products [6,49,51], which is conducive to producing more environmentally friendly products [52]. Therefore, human capital at this stage will positively promote green economy development. ...
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To tackle the increasingly severe environmental challenges, including climate change, we should pay more attention to green growth (GG), a path to realize sustainability. Human capital (HC) has been considered a crucial driving factor for developing countries to move towards GG, but the impact and mechanisms for emerging economies to achieve GG need to be further discussed. To bridge this gap, this paper investigates the relation between HC and GG in theory and demonstration perspective. It constructs a systematic theoretical framework for their relationship. Then, it uses a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model based on the non-radial direction distance function (NDDF) to measure the GG performance of China’s 281 prefecture level cities from 2011 to 2019. Ultimately, it empirically tests the hypothesis by using econometric model and LightGBM machine learning (ML) algorithm. The empirical results indicate that: (1) There is a U-shaped relationship between China’s HC and GG. Green innovation and industrial upgrading are transmission channels in the process of HC affecting GG. (2) Given other factors affecting GG, HC and economic growth contribute equally to GG (17%), second only to city size (21%). (3) China’s HC’s impact on GG is regionally imbalanced and has city size heterogeneity.
... The shipping network usually uses ports as the nodes of the network, which are the primary components of maritime transportation, and the evaluation of the port importance is essential for improving the efficiency of maritime transportation [15]. Identifying important nodes in the network is a vital issue in network analysis [16]. In the research of port importance, node characteristics such as degree, weighted degree [17], betweenness centrality [18], and eigenvector centrality [19] are common metrics. ...
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The Russia–Ukraine conflict has influenced global LNG shipping patterns; nevertheless, current research about its effects on the nodes and local regions of the LNG shipping network remains insufficient. This study employs a series of network metrics and a robustness evaluation model to examine the evolution in the structure and functionality of the LNG shipping network amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict, integrating LNG vessel origin–destination data from 2021 to 2023 to analyze the network’s structure and robustness. The research indicated that: (1) The alteration in trade relations instigated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict modified global LNG flows, resulting in a fragmented overall network structure and diminished transportation efficiency. The Russia–Ukraine conflict catalyzed the enhancement of European ports, leading to a substantial rise in the significance of premier European ports within the LNG transport network. Significant export ports, such as Ras Laffan, hold substantial importance within the network. (2) Among various assault techniques, degree-based intentional attacks inflict the greatest harm on the LNG shipping network. The robustness of the LNG shipping network declined following the Russia–Ukraine conflict, rendering it particularly susceptible in 2023. The findings indicate that the Russia–Ukraine conflict altered the structure of the LNG transportation network and diminished its robustness. The work holds substantial theoretical importance for examining the influence of geopolitical events on LNG transportation and for improving the maritime industry’s ability to navigate complicated circumstances.
... The "Belt and Road" is a concept and initiative for cooperative development, an open platform for regional economic cooperation with no precise spatial scope. For convenience of study, the scope was divided into seven regions (Table 1; Figure 1a), a total of 65 countries, drawing on the results of the related research (Du et al., 2022;Li et al., 2021;Zhang et al., 2019). The study area spans Asia, Europe, and Africa. ...
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Introduction The grain supply-demand balance is a long-standing concern for many countries and is essential to guaranteeing social stability, maintaining economic development and ensuring national grain security. Methods Based on the data of 65 countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) from 1993 to 2021, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution, the matching relationship, regional grain security situation and driving factors of grain supply-demand by measuring and classifying the grain self-sufficiency rate using methods such as geostatistical analysis and the GTWR model. Results The results indicated the following: (1) The B&R region was still at the primary stage of “food-based and feed-supplemented”. Grain supply and demand in the B&R region showed a steady upward trend, with grain yield contributing more to grain supply than sown area. (2) Overall, the B&R region has been largely self-sufficient since 2007, with grain supply meeting demand, but the level of grain self-sufficiency varied considerably between countries. (3) More than 58% of the countries were in grain insecurity, concentrated in West Asia-Middle East and South-East Asia. The gravity center of both grain supply and demand was near East Asia. (4) In terms of matching supply-demand, most countries fell into the category of high supply-high demand and low supply-low demand, with basically the same level of grain supply and demand. (5) Grain yield had the largest positive impact on grain supply-demand, GDP had the largest negative impact, and temperature change and precipitation change had a relatively small effect. The effects of fertilizer use, grain yield, and GDP on grain supply-demand fluctuated greatly over time. Discussion These findings can provide a scientific basis for the country to formulate policies for a sustainable grain supply-demand system.
... Given the projected growth of China's natural gas industry and the proposed carbon neutrality target, an increasing number of scholars are directing their attention towards natural gas efficiency (Rioux et al. 2019;Li et al. 2021). For instance, Zhang et al. (2019) and Wang et al. (2022) conducted analyses on the current state and future prospects of China's natural gas industry, providing policy recommendations. ...
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As countries worldwide strive for a sustainable energy transition, the role of natural gas in achieving carbon neutrality targets has gained increasing attention. This study evaluates the energy efficiency of natural gas (EENG) in China from 2008 to 2021, using the Slacks-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis model to examine temporal dynamics and regional disparities. The spatial Durbin model is employed to investigate the factors influencing EENG, considering spatial spillover effects. The results reveal an overall improvement in China’s EENG over time, with significant temporal and regional variations. Urbanization, environmental regulation, natural gas infrastructure, industrial structure, and technological innovation are found to have significant positive impacts on EENG, with notable spatial spillover effects and regional heterogeneity. These findings contribute to the literature on sustainable energy transitions and provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop targeted strategies for enhancing natural gas efficiency and achieving carbon neutrality in China.
... Similarly, it has been proved that LNG occupies more natural gas market share [20]. Li et al. investigated the evolution characteristics of the natural gas trade network along the "Belt and Road" (BRI) by using the network indicators and showed that there is an increasingly significant polarization effect in the BRI LNG trade network, and that the level of market monopoly is increasing [21]. Subsequently, scholars are no longer limited to a single portrayal of the overall LNG trade network, and network analysis methods such as community detection [22,23], core-periphery division [24,25], and link prediction [26] have also been used to explore the topological structure [27], the market competition pattern [28], and the prediction of the potential trade relations [29] of the LNG trade network, to deeply explore the pattern evolution of the trade network. ...
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Natural gas is considered a transitional energy source in the transition to clean energy owing to its clean, efficient, and ecologically beneficial properties. The trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG) serves as the backbone of the global natural gas trade and significantly influences the dynamics of the global energy trade system. This paper constructs long-term global LNG trade networks, and explores the spatiotemporal evolution and topological structures of the international LNG trade by utilizing multilevel network analysis methods, to provide insights for comprehensively understanding the market dynamics of the global LNG trade system. The findings indicate the following: (1) The global LNG trade volume shows an overall upward trend, and the global LNG trade network exhibits uneven spatial distribution, clear hierarchical differentiation, and an increasingly complicated structure. Global LNG trade is gradually changing from regionalization to globalization, and the international LNG market is undergoing structural reshaping. (2) The global LNG trade network continues to expand in size and density, and the rapidly growing LNG supply and trade relations are driving the formation of the global natural gas market. (3) Global LNG trade is still in a phase of rapid change, with the global efficiency of the network increasing and then decreasing. The trade network has traditionally been centered on ten countries, including Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Qatar. (4) The global LNG trade network exhibits clear core-periphery structures with considerable polarization effects, and the trade network structure is continuously evolving and is growing unbalanced. Finally, we put forward relevant policy suggestions to promote global LNG trade interconnectivity and enhance environmental protection and respond to global climate change.
... When analyzing natural gas trade for countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in the studies [10] and [11], the authors investigate through the construction of networks that incorporate pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Complex network theory is employed to analyze the evolutionary patterns of the natural gas trade network. ...
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Natural gas is a critical commodity in the global economy, and its trade dynamics and price movements are of significant interest, particularly during times of major economic disruptions. In this research, we investigate the natural gas trade from 2017-2022 using UN Comtrade data. Our goal is to identify patterns in countries’ reliance on specific gas exporters and their strategies for reducing the risk of supply disruptions. To achieve this, we analyze trade flows between countries using graph theory methods and construct networks that illustrate these flows. Our findings indicate that the gas trade network has become more interconnected over time, suggesting increasing globalization. In addition, we create year-over- year (YoY) networks that capture changes in natural gas prices for each year. Our analysis shows that, while natural gas prices have generally increased over time, there was a decrease in the price of gas exports from the Russian Federation to Serbia and Armenia in 2022 compared to 2021. Our research provides insights into the evolution of the natural gas trade and its price fluctuations, and the proposed methodology can be extended to other globally important commodities.
... In addition, Chen et al. found that cooperation between China and Russia in crude oil trade is steadily increasing. India and Russia have strong complementarities in crude oil trade, but the drivers are not stable: Russia has always had a stable and superior supply capacity in natural gas trade among the BRICS countries [19]; Zhang et al. constructed an oil trade network for countries along the "One Belt, One Road Initiative" and the depth of trade revealed a strong relationship with regional politics, transportation facilities, and cultural exchanges [20]; Li et al. constructed a natural gas trade network for the countries along the "One Belt, One Road Initiative" and found that the countries have become more interdependent over time, indicating that trade ties between countries and regions along the "One Belt, One Road Initiative" are becoming stronger [21]. ...
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As an integral part of economic trade, energy trade is crucial to international dynamics and national interests. In this study, an international energy trade network is constructed by abstracting countries as nodes and representing energy trade relations as edges. A variety of indicators are designed in terms of networks, nodes, bilaterals, and communities to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the global energy trade network from 2001 to 2020. The results indicate that network density and strength have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the 21st century. It is observed that the position of the United States as the core of the international energy market is being impacted by emerging developing countries, thus affecting the existing trade balance based on topological analysis. The weighted analysis of bilateral relations demonstrates that emerging countries such as China, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia are pursuing closer cooperation. The community analysis reveals that an increasing number of countries possess strong energy trade capabilities, resulting in a corresponding increase in energy trade volumes.
... Carbon emissions are widely recognized as major greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change, which is the most serious problem confronting human beings today (Can et al., 2021;Li et al., 2021;Liu et al., 2018). China ' s energy structure is dominated by coal, with carbon emissions growing rapidly in recent decades (Dong et al., 2017;Dong et al., 2018;Li et al., 2022a). ...
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... Energy security and energy cooperation are vital factors affecting global economic stability and development. In the face of natural disasters, local wars, and climate changes, how to ensure energy security and stable energy cooperation is an issue that needs to be addressed [1,2,3,4]. The distribution of petroleum resources is markedly imbalanced. ...
Preprint
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... As one of the major carbon emissions countries, China has proposed the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060, which increases the urgency of transforming the energy structure. Compared to coal and oil, natural gas generates fewer carbon emissions and is more energy-efficient [1,5,6,7]. Natural gas can be a supplement to renewable energy [8,9]. A low-carbon and efficient modern energy system can be constructed more rapidly by accelerating the development of the natural gas industry and increasing the proportion of natural gas in the primary energy consumption structure for China [10]. ...
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... The transition to a world less dependent on fossil fuels places natural gas (NG) as a key element to maintain energy security and complement the intermittence of renewable generation (Economides and Wood, 2009)- (Li et al., 2021). As the demand for NG increases, its supply chain also needs to develop once the infrastructure availability is a relevant constraint to the growth of NG markets (Zhang et al., 2019). ...
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... Meza (2021) predicted the competition and trade challenges among LNG-trading countries using the agent-based predictive model and held that Qatar would still be the most competitive LNG supplier in 2030, and that United States would be its emerging competitor [11]. Li (2021) considered that the natural gas trade in Southeast Asian countries such as China and India developed at a high speed on the basis of analyzing the evolutionary characteristics of PNG (pipeline natural gas) and LNG network in countries along the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) [12]. Peng (2020) combined the related indices of complex networks with vessel trajectory data, quantitatively analyzed the global LNG network from the perspective of port scale, and considered that Singapore, Ras Laffan, and Khawr Fakkan played an important role in the LNG network [13]. ...
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Chapter
Natural gas is a critical commodity in the global economy, and its trade dynamics and price movements are of significant interest, particularly during times of major economic disruptions. In this research, we investigate the natural gas trade from 2017–2022 using UN Comtrade data. Our goal is to identify patterns in countries’ reliance on specific gas exporters and their strategies for reducing the risk of supply disruptions. To achieve this, we analyze trade flows between countries using graph theory methods and construct networks that illustrate these flows. Our findings indicate that the gas trade network has become more interconnected over time, suggesting increasing globalization. In addition, we create year-over-year (YoY) networks that capture changes in natural gas prices for each year. Our analysis shows that, while natural gas prices have generally increased over time, there was a decrease in the price of gas exports from the Russian Federation to Serbia and Armenia in 2022 compared to 2021. Our research provides insights into the evolution of the natural gas trade and its price fluctuations, and the proposed methodology can be extended to other globally important commodities.
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Extraction of the Arctic natural resources is the basis for the development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), economic stability and energy security of Russia in the long term. The importance for the implementation of large-scale resource projects in the Far North is associated with logistics, which is provided by the Northern Sea Route. This article discusses the importance of the Arctic coal resources extraction for the integrated development of the Arctic region. At the moment, a number of large Arctic coal mining projects are being implementing. We analyzed their positive and negative aspects in the general context of the Arctic advancement, using general research methods of working with open data and publications. In addition, we have developed a step-by-step SWOT analysis of the Arctic coal extraction which includes five main points considering both the implementation of the Arctic coal mining projects and the overall socio-economic advancement of the Russian Arctic. As a result, we assessed the positive and negative aspects of the Arctic coal projects as well as the main opportunities that such projects open up and the threats that may affect the implementation. The study novelty lies in the application of the author's SWOT analysis methodology to the study of strategic prospects for development of the Arctic coal resources. It can be detailed by the research of the prospects of specific coal mineral resource centers.The author's methodology can also be applied to other types of Arctic mineral resources analysis.
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Ensuring balanced spatial development of Russia is not possible without the implementation of measures for accelerated development of rural areas. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the need to adjust the priorities of rural development in the North of Russia based on the analysis of the regional state program “Integrated development of rural areas of the Vologda region”. The methodological basis is the developments of regional and spatial economics and economy of rural territories. The information base was the data of Federal State Statistics Service, reports of the Vologda Region state authorities, the results of surveys of the Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We used methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison and correlation as well as regression analysis. The elements of scientific novelty are consideration of rural areas as an integral part of the region's space as well as integrated use of monographic, statistical and econometric methods in justifying the need to change the priorities of rural development. The expediency of adjusting the priorities of rural development in the direction of active advancement of their economy is revealed. It seems relevant to adjust priorities by including measures for the development of the rural economy, enshrined in the Strategy for Sustainable Development of Rural Areas of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030, and measures to form a single rural-urban space. The prospect for research is justification of social and economic efficiency from the implementation of measures to improve the rural economy.
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The outbreak of a new coronavirus infection and the need to combat it everywhere contributed to the more active implementation by companies of their policies in the field of corporate social responsibility, the growth of social investments in healthcare and education, and the development of corporate volunteering. Such an increase in activity was also observed earlier — during periods of other crises and disasters, when companies significantly expanded their social orientation, moved to a new level of interaction with employees, consumers and communities to solve acute problems of a critical period, retaining these new elements in the future already in its current activities. The aim of the work was to study the practice of implementing corporate social responsibility during periods of various crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic. In the process of work, scientific methods of content analysis, logical and comparative analysis were used. The study contributes to the scientific discourse on the problem of the relationship between the theory and practice of corporate social responsibility, its implementation during periods of various crises. The practical significance lies in the possibility of applying the results obtained in the practice of initiating and implementing by business structures, including Russian Arctic companies, their policies in this area (including now, during the Ukrainian crisis, in conditions of geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainty). It is obvious that the still existing uncertainty in the manifestation of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the emergence of new unprecedented changes in geopolitical and geo-economic conditions caused by the Ukrainian crisis, suggests continuation of the study of these issues and requires additional research on corporate social responsibility, as well as its practical implementation by companies, carrying out their economic activities in the Russian Arctic.
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The targets set in the field of efficient use of available resources have become prerequisites for the development of a circular economy. Because of the efficient use of resources, it became necessary to set international targets in order to ensure the sustainable development of the global consumption of world resources. The article provides a comparative analysis of linear and circular models of economies. An assessment is made of the formation and disposal of production and consumption waste both in general and by types of economic activity in Russia for 2005–2021. Challenges of transition to a new resource-efficient agricultural model are considered. The proposed approach assumes that the goods produced today can become resources of tomorrow, while saving resources, reducing waste, creating new jobs and providing new economic opportunities. The article emphasizes the importance of transforming traditional farming in the real economic system. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that for the Komi Republic, a circular economy model of agriculture and agro-food system was for the first time proposed, taking into account the peculiarities of its functioning. The study revealed weak points in the circulation of the food and food chain in the region. To develop a viable model, a series of expert interviews was conducted with experts and representatives of the Republic of Komi executive authorities as well as a series of interviews with peasant farm owners and directors of preschool and educational organizations and hospitals of the republic municipalities. The practical significance of the model introduction in the regional circular economy of the republic as follows: food losses reduction, food waste generation decrease, as well as food security level and agricultural sector resources rational use rising. It was determined that a coordinated and holistic interdepartmental approach in the development of appropriate policies and concepts for the transition to a closed production cycle in the northern region, is essential in agricultural circular economy advancement. The further research will deal with development of circular economy specific model applied to a leading farm of the republic.
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The purpose of this article is to consider the geopolitical significance of the Arctic region, as well as the role of consulting in the implementation of strategic investment projects in the development of Arctic territories. The novelty of the work consists in updating data on the specifics of activities in the Arctic region, analyzing current associated risks and assessing the feasibility of attracting external experts to provide consulting services within the framework of project implementation. The implementation of strategic investment projects in the Arctic region has several specific aspects that lead to the emergence of various risks. For example, only Russian oil companies transport liquefied gas and oil in ice, which is an extremely complex process. Therefore, for timely identification, as well as elimination / minimization of associated risks, it is necessary to involve appropriate experts. In particular, when implementing projects in the Arctic zone, it is advisable to involve specialized consultants. The practical significance of the work is to analyze the activities of leading consulting companies and identify current trends in the development of the consulting services market in the Arctic region. During the study, the authors concluded that it is impossible to attract foreign consulting companies to implement strategic projects in the Arctic region due to the presence of political and economic risks. The article notes the need to create domestic consulting companies that have broad competencies in solving problems related to the implementation of strategic projects in the Arctic region. These prerequisites can be used to conduct further research on the topic under consideration. Thus, it is necessary to create a separate training area in Russian universities, which will be aimed at training experts with knowledge of the specifics of working in the Arctic region. For the successful implementation of long-term projects in the Arctic region, it is necessary to train highly qualified experts with a wide range of knowledge about the geopolitical, economic and natural conditions of the Arctic region, who are able to participate as external consultants in the implementation of the national strategy for the development of the Arctic and projects of various levels of complexity.
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. The article on the basis of marketing approach analyzes the main factors, that determine the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the context of increasing intensity of shipping and freight transport growth. The purpose of the research is on the basis of the three-dimensional matrix (consumers — needs function — technology to meet needs) to consider the expectations and needs of key actors of the Arctic marine highway use, assess the process of demand formation, identify and summarize the most important factors of functioning of the NSR taking into account regional specific features to meet the needs and preferences of the NSR user groups, analyze bottlenecks of cargo transportation in the conditions of strict competition in the market of maritime transport services. The expediency of the three-dimensional matrix is substantiated by systematizing the significant features of the NSR use, based on the characteristics of the product that are important for consumers (the NSR transport and logistics services). This toolkit made it possible to determine measures to increase the NSR operation attractiveness. It is noted that the needs of the NSR user groups demand the following: advanced organizational management structure, implementation of measures to ensure navigation safety, creation and development of coastal infrastructure, modernization and construction of multifunctional ports, modern ice-breaking fleet availability and operation of monitoring systems. The relevance of the use marketing tools to solve the problems of the integrated development of the NSR in order to attract consumers and increase its competitiveness was offered. The novelty of the work lies in the author’s view on the prospects of the NSR development manifested in the offered algorithm (three-dimensional matrix of diagnostics) of marketing analysis of maritime transport along the NSR with the consistent identification of factors influencing the shippers' choice of transport services. The results obtained show the practical significance of the research, and help more comprehensively and systemically study the priority areas of the NSR development and its transport and logistics potential.
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Energy trade has been a hot topic in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while cooperation and competition are two elementary modes of international trade. This study examines the cooperation relations in terms of renewable energy trade among BRI countries by constructing a two-layer network model for 1996–2018. We examined 65 BRI countries and indicated that the interplay between intrinsic and network dynamics features either cooperation or competition. First, the evolutionary patterns between cooperation network and competition network are different but with a declining gap. Besides, the BRI policy promotes cooperation more effectively than competition. Second, competitiveness and cooperativeness are heterogeneously distributed across countries and influential cooperators are not necessarily top competitors. Notably, BRI has reinforced China's competitive position. Third, the intralayer and interlayer network dissimilarity are integrated to provide insights that numerous countries play dual roles of competitor and collaborator, while cooperation-oriented competition is more conducive. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed so that sustainable renewable energy supply can be attained.
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Given the increasing complexity of multilateral relations in the natural gas trade along the Belt and Road (B&R), it is necessary to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on natural gas trade from the perspective of structure dependence. First, the multilateral trade of natural gas along B&R is abstracted as the liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas trade networks (BR-LNGTN and BR-PNGTN, respectively). Second, we analyze the evolution of the network structure and the status change of countries before and after the implementation of the BRI. Finally, based on the temporal exponential random graph models (TERGMs), the evolutionary mechanism of the natural gas trade network and impact of the BRI on the evolutionary mechanism are comprehensively studied. The results show that the implementation of the BRI promotes the network size, but the advantages of trade cooperation have not been fully realized. China and India are the authoritative trading countries, while Russia and Qatar are the primary intermediary countries. Structure dependence, time dependence and trade facilitation significantly impact the generation of the network, but the explanatory power of the exogenous attributes decrease, which indicates that the trade conditions along B&R have been significantly improved.
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How green trade affects regional environmental conditions is one of the core issues of sustainable economic growth in China. Based on the distinction of product quality, this study first assesses the level of provincial green trade by utilizing firm-level trade data on 142 green products. Then, based on panel data for the period 2007–2016 in China, this study empirically explores the comprehensive impact of green trade on pollution emissions by employing the SYS-GMM method. Furthermore, this paper explores the heterogeneous analysis, asymmetric analysis, and mediating mechanism analysis of the green trade - pollution emissions nexus. Following are the main conclusions: (1) Green trade can effectively reduce pollution emissions; (2) improved environmental quality can be achieved by increased trade in green medium- and high-technology products; (3) across various provinces, this impact is heterogeneous and asymmetric; and (4) the scale and technique effects are significant mediators in this nexus based on the mediation mechanism, while the composition effect is insignificant. The findings have several policy implications for improving green trade and reducing environmental degradation.
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This study provides a comprehensive, updated, and refined analysis of the challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports based on recent statistical data, academic publications, and media sources. The paper addresses the lack of continuity in studies within the topic since the recent changes are not reflected well enough in the current peer-reviewed literature. In order to understand the perspectives regarding Russian natural gas export in global natural gas markets, we consequently examine the current layout of the global natural gas markets, and challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports. The analysis shows that the U.S. natural gas market is closed for Russian exports. In the European market, Russia is experiencing difficulties in increasing its export shares, or even maintaining current levels, owing to various macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Asian markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are the most promising destinations for future Russian natural gas exports. Despite strong geopolitical challenges and high competition globally, Russia should seek maintaining current export levels in the European market, while implementing a win-win export strategy, and secure its future export shares on the Asian markets. The results of the study can be used for scenario and planning purposes, and be useful for policy makers and industry practitioners.
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Asia's share of global demand for natural gas has increased from 12 to 21 per cent since the turn of the century, and the overall consumption has more than doubled. At the same time, there is a widening gap between regional natural gas demand and supply, with increasing reliance on imports. In 2017, Asian importers absorbed 72 per cent of globally traded liquefied natural gas (LNG). Their LNG import dependence is forecast to grow significantly over the coming decades. This paper explores major Asian importers' approaches to LNG import diversification between 2001 and 2017 and explains why patterns of LNG imports differ across countries and over time. The focus of the paper is on five largest LNG importers in the region: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The paper utilises the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index (HHI) of market concentration to evaluate LNG import diversification across the five countries. The analysis contributes to a growing body of literature that evaluates various aspects of energy import diversification in the context of broader energy security strategies. Findings suggest that all countries have improved their LNG import portfolios, although there is significant temporal variation across countries. Reflecting on the relationship between energy security and growth, the paper concludes by outlining policy implications for regional energy policymakers.
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The peaks of natural gas production are of great significance to the planning of national energy strategy, the coordinated development of natural gas industry chain and the investment decision-making for oil and gas companies. Therefore, based on natural gas geological and development characteristics, the production peaks of conventional gas (including tight gas), CBM and shale gas in China have been systematically analyzed and forecasted using multiple methods. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the cumulative gas production in China will reach 280–330 bcm by 2035 and 330–410 bcm by 2050; second, the conventional gas production peaks will be easily predicable during the forecast period, while the peaks of CBM and shale gas production need to be further forecasted and tracked continuously; third, with the possible breakthrough of gas hydrate exploration and development being considered, gas production in China has a great potential and bright future. In order to achieve a strategic goal of energy transformation and conservation and to guarantee a safe and stable gas supply, a timely profound analysis and study will be necessary on the international political, economic and energy development situation for a global gas strategic layout. In view of this, based on the analysis of domestic natural gas supply and demand situation, the following proposals are put forward: to speed up the domestic tapping and commercial production of those deep-strata, deep-water and unconventional gas resources to consolidate the dominant position of domestic natural gas supply; to attach great importance to a strategic layout of overseas gas resources utilization and to adopt various ways to ensure the security of domestic gas market; to accelerate the evaluation of gas hydrate development in order to enlarge and consolidate the gas resource basis; and to strengthen a dynamic forecast on the peaks of gas production in order to continuously enhance the soft power in international competition.
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This study is the first attempt to investigate the nexus among per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, gross domestic product (GDP), and natural gas and renewable energy consumption within the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), in a 1985-2016 sample of BRICS countries (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). For this purpose, panel unit root, cointegration, and causality tests allowing for cross-sectional dependence are conducted. Employing the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator, the results provide strong evidence in favor of the EKC hypothesis for the BRICS countries by proposing that the EKC holds in all five BRICS countries; the turning points (TPs) lie between 4,282.90(India)and4,282.90 (India) and 16,553.77 (China), while the turning years (TYs) are estimated to be between 2018 (Russia) and 2035 (India). Furthermore, increasing natural gas and renewable energy consumption lowers CO2 emissions, which indicates that, 1% increase in natural gas and renewable energy consumption for the BRICS countries will decrease CO2 emissions by 0.1641% and 0.2601%, respectively. The causality analysis underscores feedback hypothetical links among CO2 emissions, natural gas consumption, and renewable energy consumption in the long run. Some policy implications are highlighted for BRICS countries’ policymakers not only for tackling CO2 emissions, but also for promoting growth in the natural gas and renewable energy industries.
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This paper examines the impact of a change in East Asia's pricing benchmark and contract flexibility on the regional and global gas markets. To our knowledge, this study will be the first in the literature and have real policy relevance. The results show that both price benchmark change and contract flexibility improvements will create an overall benefit for the world and East Asia importers, but the impacts are different among exporters and importers. However, there is no evidence of competition among different benchmark hubs and no evidence that destination restrictions cause the “Asia Premium”. It implies that removal of destination clauses has higher priority than the change to hub indexation for Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei, but both should be treated equally in China. For reference, please access the journal for final version
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This paper presents and implements a Benders Decomposition type of algorithm for large-scale, stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems. The algorithm is applied to various multi-stage natural gas market models accounting for market power exertion by traders. Due to the non-optimization nature of the natural gas market problem, a straightforward implementation of the traditional Benders Decomposition is not possible. The master and subproblems can be derived from the underlying optimization problems and transformed into complementarity problems. However, to complete the master problems optimality cuts are added using the variational inequality-based method developed in Gabriel and Fuller (2010). In this manner, an alternative derivation of Benders Decomposition for Stochastic MCP is presented, thereby making this approach more applicable to a broader audience. The algorithm can successfully solve problems with up to 256 scenarios and more than 600 thousand variables, and problems with over 117 thousand variables with more than two thousand first-stage capacity expansion variables. The algorithm is efficient for solving two-stage problems. The computational time reduction for other stochastic problems is considerable and would be even larger if a parallel implementation of the algorithm were used. The paper concludes with a discussion of infrastructure expansion results, illustrating the impact of hedging on investment timing and optimal capacity sizes.
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As the demand for sustainable energy sources is increasing globally, the popularization and application of clean energy has become an inevitable trend. Natural gas is playing an increasingly vital role in global energy consumption. The vast majority of natural gas is transported between ports in vessels in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to the geographical separation between the supply and demand countries. Analyzing its transportation pattern is of great significance for optimizing trade strategies between countries and ensuring their energy import and export security. However, existing knowledge on detailed trade patterns at the port level is limited. In this study, we adopted a set of network indices and a classic community detection method to investigate global LNG transportation networks using mass vessel trajectory data collected from 2013 to 2017. The results show that 1) the LNG transportation network is characterized by closer connections; 2) Singapore, Ras Laffan, and Khawr Fakkan have the most important roles in the LNG transportation network; 3) the global LNG trade network has developed several closely connected trading communities since 2013, and ports within individual communities have gradually become more geographically concentrated; and 4) the global LNG trade network has evolved into three closely linked trading zones, i.e., a zone encompassing some of the ports in the Middle East, Australia, Singapore, East Asia, and Southeast Asia; a zone encompassing the remaining ports of the Middle East, East Africa, the Mediterranean, and Europe; and the ports in the Americas, which is a relatively independent trade zone.
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China's seaborne foreign oil supply through the Malacca Strait is facing security challenges due to territorial disputes, pirate attacks, and geopolitics. To overcome these challenges, China plans to import oil through one of the corridors of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This study estimated and compared ship emissions and their externalities associated with seaborne oil supply from the top five oil suppliers to China through the existing shipping route via the Malacca Strait and proposed route via CEPC. Ship activity-based methodology is applied to estimate the emissions of air pollutants (CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10, and CO) during cruising, maneuvering, and hoteling periods. The results show that the total ship emissions of China's seaborne oil supply can be significantly reduced from 6.2 million tons to 2.1 million tons via the CPEC route. While external cost can be reduced up to 65.9% via the CPEC route.
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As the global natural gas consumption cores shifts eastward, the natural gas import market competition in the Asia Pacific is increasingly intensified. This paper presents a composite index for assessing the natural gas supply security to identify the challenges and provide a benchmark for policy analysis in Asia Pacific countries. The index is based on a comprehensive set of eight indicators including resource risk, structural risk, dependence risk, geopolitical risk, market risk, liquidity risk, infrastructure risk and transportation risk. To aggregate individual indicator into one composite index, the linear and data-driven Benefit-of-the-Doubt model is adopted to estimate the importance of various sub-indicators with compromise weights. Results reveal that the gas supply security in Asia Pacific natural gas importing countries presents a general decline-up-down trends. Furthermore, the gas supply security in China, India and Malaysia have fluctuated widely, the Japan and Korea are very close and stable, while the gas supply security of each country has gradually converged during the observation period. The appraisal method and corresponding findings could provide strategic options for gas importers with different characteristics and have important implications for exploring regional joint emergency mechanism and improve regional competitiveness.
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Carbon emission peak has become a focus of political and academic concern in global community since the launch of Kyoto Protocol. China, as the largest carbon emitter, has committed to reaching the carbon peak by 2030 in Paris Agreement. This ambitious national goal requires the endeavors of individual sectors, particularly those carbon-intensive ones. Predicting the sectoral peaks under current endeavors and understanding driving forces for the carbon emission changes in the past years are substantial for guiding the allocation of the country's future efforts. In the past studies contextualized in China, the prediction of its carbon peaks seldom appeared at the sectoral level, which is considered as a research gap. Therefore, this study predicts the peaks at four carbon pillar sectors (i.e. industrial, building, transport and agricultural sectors) and identifies the driving forces for the carbon emission changes of them. This study hypothesized Carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) as the theoretical model for predicting the peaks and used Logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) as the method to identify the driving forces. The results show that the carbon emission in the country will peak in 2036, six years later than the agreed year. The lateness of the national peak can be attributed to the significant lateness of three pillar sectors' peaks, occurring in 2031 for the industrial sector, 2035 for the building sector, 2043 for the transport sector, peak for the agricultural sector occurs four years earlier in 2026 though. Furthermore, the results show that carbon emission is significantly driven by the booming economic output and inhibited by decreasing energy intensity, but the slight fluctuation of energy structure plays a minor role in the four sectors. Policy adjustments are proposed for effectively and efficiently urging the on-time occurrence of the national peak.
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A stable and secure oil supply is essential to achieve sustainable development in China. The country mostly imports oil and gas from countries along the ‘Belt and Road’, which are major destination countries for the export of Chinese-manufactured products. Strengthening trade with these countries is essential to not only secure China's oil and gas supply but also promote development in the area. Based on the global commodity chain and value chain concepts, this paper analyses the status and prospects of the oil and gas trade between countries, considering all trade relations, which avoids the one-sidedness of oil and gas trade analysis based on the demand–supply relationship. We find that the general trade relationship between China and the countries along the Belt and Road is closely related to their oil and gas trade. Oil and gas resources are the main commodities exported to China by countries and regions having close trade relationships with it. Chinese policies should thus focus on developing the oil and gas trade with central Asia and Mongolia and improving the country's competitive advantage in traditional manufacturing exports, which, in turn, can enhance its position in international oil and gas trade.
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We show that, in models of endogenous sovereign default with symmetric polarization and political turnover, disagreement in the distribution of consumption among distinct political groups or random political turnovers lead to elevated default risk only when preferences feature decreasing concavity in consumption. Consequently, if preferences are in the commonly assumed CRRA form in this class of models, the risk aversion parameter needs to be taken as smaller than one. Our result builds on early insights of the literature, which underscore precautionary insurance and strategic borrowing motives as two competing forces under polarization and political uncertainty. When uninsured income shocks and limited commitment to debt repayment are introduced, high consumption states overlap with increased borrowing. Under declining concavity in preferences, political instability and polarization cause the incumbent sovereign to perceive the consumption of the two constituencies as closer substitutes, which reinforces its borrowing bias and elevates default risk. Our findings fix the calibration of a canonical default model with symmetric polarization and exogenous turnovers by Cuadra and Sapriza (2008) and are robust to alternative numerical approximation methods as well as sovereign debt maturities.
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China's growing dependence on foreign natural gas has garnered increased attention to import risks and exposure. The purpose of this study is to serve as a vital guide in formulating an energy policy framework that aims at assessing and mitigating the impacts of natural gas import risks (NGIR). First, the paper constructs a NGIR evaluation framework with full consideration of resource risk, political risk, transport risk, price volatility risk, purchasing power risk and dependence risk. The relative weight of various risk factors is also identified for importing gas from different sources. Building on this, we use a linear programming model to optimize China's gas import sources based on the minimization of import risks. The results show that China's NGIR exhibited increasing trends in 2010–2014, with variation in the largest risk factors by national gas supplier. For Turkmenistan and Indonesia, the greatest risk is dependence; for Qatar, price volatility risk; for Yemen, Australia and Uzbekistan, resource risk; and for Malaysia, purchasing power risk. Along with other policy recommendations, our optimization results indicate that increasing the proportion of Chinese gas imports from potential suppliers, such as Russia and the United States, is an effective approach to reduce NGIR.
Article
Commensurate with unprecedented increases in energy demand, a well-constructed forecasting model is vital to managing energy policies effectively by providing energy diversity and energy requirements that adapt to the dynamic structure of the country. In this study, we employ three alternative popular machine learning tools for rigorous projection of natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul, Turkey's largest natural gas-consuming mega-city. These tools include multiple linear regression (MLR), an artificial neural network approach (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR). The results indicate that the SVR is much superior to ANN technique, providing more reliable and accurate results in terms of lower prediction errors for time series forecasting of natural gas consumption. This study could well serve a useful benchmarking study for many emerging countries due to the data structure, consumption frequency, and consumption behavior of consumers in various time-periods.
Article
Sustainable development is one common goal for the whole world, and regional cooperation is imperative to achieve that. Among the 17 sustainable development goals put forward by United Nations, the energy issue is one important part. It is necessary to better understand current energy consumption and trade pattern for energy consumption structure upgrade in the future. Hence, a study on petroleum trade along the “The Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) can provide practical guidance for regional cooperation and sustainable development. This research uses social network analysis to investigate structural characteristics and evolution pattern with petroleum trade data of countries along BRI. We find that the primary structure of trade network keeps unchanged. Cohesion and core-periphery analysis results indicate that China has constructed a tight relationship with other countries and more trade links are sustained by fewer nations respectively, trade is still correlated to geopolitics. Regional trade network has resilience. Quadratic Assignment Procedure results show that the economic scale has a significant positive impact on trade in this region, neighboring countries tend to establish close trade relations, and the degree of policy communication and facility connectivity between countries needs to be further strengthened. Cultural interoperability also shows significant features, and related follow-up cooperation needs to be further deepened.
Article
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) forms the core of China's foreign policy and future foreign cooperation, and energy cooperation is an important component of the BRI. Energy security is closely related to the interdependent relations between countries. The present paper investigates energy interdependent relations between China and the countries along the Belt and Road using data collected in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, between 2000 and 2015. The main results are as follows: (1) Abundant proven reserves of energy resources exist in these countries, which were equivalent to 758.73 billion tons of standard coal in 2015, accounting for 52.27% of the world. The distribution of these resources presents a pattern with two centers-one in Russia, and one in West Asia and the Middle East. (2) Established interdependence relations exist between China and the countries along the Belt and Road in terms of energy cooperation. China has imported 437.21 million tons of standard coal from these countries and their guarantee degree to China's energy security is 58.42%, of which 13.56% refers to coal, 73.37% to oil, and 13.06% to gas. Meanwhile, their dependence degree in energy exports to China was 13.56%, or 11.15% for coal, 14.92% for oil, and 10.55% for gas. An interdependence relation thus exists between China and these countries, and the degree of mutual dependence between them was 0.23 (0.22 for coal, 0.13 for oil, and 0.38 for gas), locating China in a relatively passive position with respect to the countries along the Belt and Road as a whole, but a relatively active position in relation to individual countries (with the exception of Russia). Our findings are useful to the tasks of identifying the spatial distribution pattern of energy in countries along the Belt and Road, assisting in the promotion of energy cooperation between China and these countries, and the future construction of the BRI.
Article
The global environmental concerns associated with the increased energy demand have promoted the use of natural gas as a low-carbon fuel. This caused an increase in LNG supply and demand coupled with the need for useful tools to devise secure LNG trade schemes. While most studies focused either on assessing the security of past/current LNG trade, or on extrapolating LNG trade trends in the future, this study introduces a new simplified coarse-grained model that devises optimized LNG import/export schemes ensuring secure trade for suppliers and markets. The model is based only on four variables: LNG demand, LNG liquefaction capacity, utilization of liquefaction capacity, and transport distance. First, the model was used to generate LNG trade portfolios for Asia Pacific and Europe between 2003 and 2016. The HHI index then showed that the model always devised a more diversified, secure LNG trade. The different import strategies of the two markets and their evolution with time was highlighted, revealing more secure import regulations by AP. Finally, the model was used to forecast LNG import portfolios for AP and EU in 2030, which emphasized a significant change in the market share of conventional exporters with the introduction of new US and Australian LNG.
Article
Driven by the impact of economic growth, urbanization, and national strategies for low-carbon development, the TNGC of urban households in China is growing rapidly. In this paper, the feasible generalized least square method is used to investigate the consumption of natural gas and the per capita natural gas consumption of urban residents in 30 provinces in China (not including central heating and the natural gas consumption of natural gas vehicles). We study the factors influencing natural gas consumption by urban residents in China and conduct scenario forecasting. The empirical results show that the impact coefficients of PNGs and household income on average natural gas consumption are − 0.895 and 0.222, respectively, while the impact coefficients of the NGP are − 0.603 and 0.346, respectively. The scenario forecast results show that the consumption of natural gas in Chinese households reached 75.469 billion cubic meters in 2025. China's natural gas season peak pressure will continue to increase. In response to this, the following three suggestions are proposed. (1) According to the price elasticity of natural gas, the Chinese government should adjust and improve the mechanism for the formation of PNGs for residents and promote the marketization of natural gas. (2) Accelerate the construction of natural gas reserves and allocate the natural gas supply according to regional differences in natural gas consumption to enhance China's natural gas peak shaving capacity. (3) Improve and optimize natural gas development plans to achieve coordinated development of natural gas supply and demand.
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This paper documents a dramatic change in the nature of connectedness in global commodity prices following the 2008 global financial crisis. We show that co-dependence in price-changes among seven major commodity classes goes from a pre-crisis average of 14.82% to a strikingly larger average of 47.87% in the period following the crisis, and which has endured until now. Dynamic swings in price co-movements of such a scale present a clear concern for financial investors and are of immediate interest to a wider policy-maker audience. Of particular interest is the empirical behavior of the food commodity price index, whose contribution to the system dynamics rises from less than 20% in the period up to 2008, to more than 80% after. To dispel any concern that these finding may be method-specific, we demonstrate their invariance to modeling procedure by providing analogous-results using a pairwise Granger causality analysis, as well as different sub-sampling choices.
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Based on the data of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, this paper constructs the consumption and import–export of natural gas identities. It discusses the drivers of changes in global natural gas consumption and trade flows from 2008 to 2015 using the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index. The results show that differences in the natural gas supply and demand across countries or regions, as well as the distribution of energy between the domestic and international markets, can be better explained when natural gas trade movements are considered. By comparing the supply and consumption increment of natural gas, this study finds that only the energy intensity, economic growth, and demographic effects are consistent with each other. The changes in the impact of other effects mainly depend on storage variations and statistical errors. In addition, the primary drivers of the incremental changes in natural gas consumption vary in different countries. They include production scale, import scale, export scale, consumption structure proportion, energy intensity, economic growth, and population and balance effects. Finally, the consumption competitiveness of the liquefied natural gas significantly improved over the examined period.
Article
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade has contributed to de-regionalizing and integrating the total natural gas market with its advantage of flexibility in delivery. While because of this feature, the international trade of LNG is more changeable. Finding potential links in changeable international LNG trade can help the government quickly find a new partner when facing a sudden breakdown of trade relation or an urgent situation to diversify the trade partners. Moreover, the government could adjust its energy strategy in advance by estimating the potential trade relations of present partners. In this study, we find potential trade relations in international LNG trade by combining the trade motivation underlying in the network structure with rules explored from the LNG international trade. The findings are as follows: In the next five years, there is a very high possibility that India, Spain, Netherlands and Singapore will import LNG from USA, and there is a high possibility that Italy will import LNG from the USA. UK may export LNG to Japan and France is likely to export LNG to Rep of Korea. Suggestions about LNG trade according to the findings are offered to governments.
Article
The aim of our research is to explore whether the countries’ local trade pattern can reflect their preferences of selecting trade partners in different commodity’s markets. Considering of the energy and their alternative ones of daily use and power generation, we choose four energy commodities to make comparisons: crude oil, coal, natural gas and photovoltaic (PV). We use complex network and link prediction to explore local trade pattern, make projections based on 2014 data and approve them by 2015 data. We find that the international PV trade involves much denser cooperation among countries than other three commodities. Certain links, such as that between Canada and France-owned islands, are key paths for other countries to establish further trade cooperation. In addition, interestingly, high number of common trade partners promote two countries to establish fossil energy trade cooperation. However, for the global PV trade market, each country’s production capacity becomes a preferential element for further cooperation. Projections about potential trade links and core patterns are estimated. Governments can develop traditional energy with more triangle-shaped cooperation, while they can promote renewable energy cooperation by increasing the number of trade channels. Future cooperation can be estimated based on trade preferences in different markets.
Article
Using a supply chain perspective, this paper determines optimal portfolio strategies for liquefied natural gas (LNG) importation based on multi-objective optimisation models. Unlike previous studies, this paper first constructs a quantitative maritime transportation risk indicator by considering maritime transportation distances and the risk of pirate attacks. Next, it comprehensively considers the economic risks of importation, the exporting countries' political risks and the maritime transportation risks associated with developing optimal LNG importation strategies. Finally, from an emergency management perspective, different emergency scenarios are proposed to analyse how LNG importation strategies can be adjusted for extreme events occurring in LNG-exporting countries or along maritime transportation routes. A case study of China's LNG importation decisions is analysed using the proposed novel analytical framework. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) is employed to obtain the Pareto solution sets of the multi-objective optimisation models. The empirical results show that if extreme events occur in Indonesia or if ships transporting LNG to China suddenly encounter pirate attacks along the North Africa–China maritime transportation route, China should adjust its LNG importation strategies in a timely manner to ensure the security of LNG importation. By considering various significant risks, the new analytical framework proposed in this study offers an effective tool for making decisions about the optimal portfolio for LNG importation.
Article
Following China's pledge to mitigate GHG emissions, natural gas has become an important choice for promoting low-carbon development in the country. China has introduced natural gas-friendly policies to increase the penetration of natural gas into its total energy consumption, causing an increase in the demand for foreign natural gas in China. This study attempts to devise a foreign natural gas import scheme for China by constructing a mathematical programming model. Various aspects of energy security, such as diversification, lower dependency, supplier export capacity, minimizing the import cost, transport distance and political instability associated with each of the foreign natural gas suppliers, were incorporated in the decision-making model for a foreign natural gas import scheme for the years 2015–2020. The proposed model optimizes China's strategy by utilizing the existing capacity of the piped natural gas (PNG) infrastructure and gradually increasing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from the top six suppliers in the world, i.e. Qatar, Malaysia, Australia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Trinidad & Tobago and Algeria. Furthermore, the analysis of the existing and planned LNG and PNG import infrastructure suggests that China will have more than enough import capacity to fulfil the demand for foreign natural gas in the country until 2020.
Article
As the US natural gas surplus grows, so does the prospect of establishing new trade partnerships with buyers abroad, a process that has major consequences for global ship movement and ballast water delivery. Since US annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) peaked in 2004–2007, the country is rapidly transitioning from net importer to net exporter of LNG. Combining multiple datasets, we estimated changes in the associated flux of ships' ballast water to the US during 2015–2040, using existing scenarios for projected exports of domestic LNG by ships. Our analysis of the current market (2015) scenario predicts an approximate 90-fold annual increase in LNG-related ballast water discharge to the US by 2040 (42 million m3), with the potential to be even greater under high oil prices. We also described changes in geographic connectivity related to trade direction. These findings highlight how 21st century global energy markets could dramatically alter opportunities for seaborne introductions and invasions by nonnative species.
Article
Online social networks (OSNs) have become a vital part of everyday living. OSNs provide researchers and scientists with unique prospects to comprehend individuals on a scale and to analyze human behavioral patterns. Influential spreaders identification is an important subject in understanding the dynamics of information diffusion in OSNs. Targeting these influential spreaders is significant in planning the techniques for accelerating the propagation of information that is useful for various applications, such as viral marketing applications or blocking the diffusion of annoying information (spreading of viruses, rumors, online negative behaviors, and cyberbullying). Existing K-core decomposition methods consider links equally when calculating the influential spreaders for unweighted networks. Alternatively, the proposed link weights are based only on the degree of nodes. Thus, if a node is linked to high-degree nodes, then this node will receive high weight and is treated as an important node. Conversely, the degree of nodes in OSN context does not always provide accurate influence of users. In the present study, we improve the K-core method for OSNs by proposing a novel link-weighting method based on the interaction among users. The proposed method is based on the observation that the interaction of users is a significant factor in quantifying the spreading capability of user in OSNs. The tracking of diffusion links in the real spreading dynamics of information verifies the effectiveness of our proposed method for identifying influential spreaders in OSNs as compared with degree centrality, PageRank, and original K-core.
Article
Natural gas contributes a growing share of the world's energy mix. In this paper we use national-level data for a sample of 44 countries to estimate the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand. We present both single-equation results and results instrumenting natural gas prices with proved natural gas reserves. Our instrument includes both domestic reserves and distance-weighted reserves in other countries. We obtain estimates of the average long-run price elasticity of natural gas demand of around − 1.25 and of the average long-run income elasticity of natural gas demand of + 1 and higher. We also present separate estimates for final natural gas demand by industry and households.
Article
Liquefied natural gas(LNG) has been categorized as a global commodity because of the continuous globalization of the LNG trade, and there is very close competition between LNG exporters worldwide. However, the overall competition structure and degree of the global LNG trade system were not well portrayed or quantified in the existing literature. This paper examined the trade competition pattern of the global LNG trade by building LNG trade competition networks (LTCN) from 2005 to 2014. Overall, the competitive relationship growth and competitive globalization features of the LNG trade were analyzed, and the main LNG exporter group and its evolution were studied. Moreover, the market competitiveness of LNG exporters was measured, and accordingly, these exporters were divided into three categories to depict their different development prospects, which would form a more complicated competition pattern of LNG trade in the future.
Article
Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions.
Article
Network decomposition methods, such as the much used -core analysis, are able to identify globally central regions of networks. The decomposition approaches are hierarchical and identify nested sets of nodes with increasing centrality properties. While most studies have been concerned with unweighted networks, i.e. -core analysis, recent works have introduced network decomposition methods that apply to weighted networks. Here, we investigate the relationship between -core decomposition for unweighted networks and -core decomposition for weighted networks by systematically employing a link-weight scheme that gradually discretizes the link weights. We applied this approach to the Erdős–Rényi model and the scale-free configuration model for five different weight distributions, and two empirical networks, the US air traffic network and a Facebook network. We find that (1) both uniformly random and positively correlated link-weight distributions give rise to highly stable -core decompositions with respect to discretization levels. (2) For negatively correlated link-weight distributions, the resulting -core decomposition has no similarity to the -cores. Since several combinations of network topology and link-weight distributions give rise to a core-structure that is highly similar to the full -core for a large range of link-discretization levels, it is possible to significantly speed up the numerical -core analysis for these situations.
Article
This study examines both the short and long-term dynamics of natural gas consumption in Pakistan through an econometric model, sector-specific income, price and cross price elasticities of natural gas demand are estimated over the period 1978-2011. The estimated income elasticities indicate that real GDP per capita exerts a larger impact on gas consumption as compared to its price. The price and cross price elasticities are relatively low, indicating consumers׳ indifference in Pakistan towards price escalation. They neither decrease gas consumption nor try to explore less expensive substitutes for natural gas. A validation of the estimated demand equations is performed, showing high degree of accuracy through tracking the historical data. In order to determine the future outlook of natural gas demand, sectoral equations are simulated as baseline. Both moderate and extreme demand scenarios are projected for the period 2012-2020. Ex-post simulation, resulting through baseline scenario, suggests that the power sector is more likely to occupy top position in terms of natural gas consumption. It is expected that the natural gas consumption would reach 734,062 MMCFT by 2020, followed by the transport sector (238,943 MMCFT); industrial sector (541,869 MMCFT); residential sector (304,821 MMCFT) and the commercial sector (72,784 MMCFT). Furthermore, simulation results based on moderate and extreme scenarios reveal that a deliberate increase in natural gas prices reduces per capita natural gas consumption significantly over the forecast time horizon (2012-2020). The findings of this study have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. Particularly, price and income elasticities have practical relevance for appropriate pricing and income policies. Additionally, forecast results can provide useful support for designing an appropriate infrastructure and investment plan with reference to gas market in future.
Article
As the Asia Pacific region continues to experience rapid economic growth, natural gas may have an important role in satisfying regional demand and transitioning to a low carbon economy. In this study, a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model matches the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2010 as well as the historical hydrogen to carbon (H/C) ratio. The GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and H/C ratio to the year 2030. The scenarios vary according to policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage gas use. Estimates of conventional and unconventional gas quantities and costs are also presented, partly with a Variable Shape Distribution Model (VSD) and supply curves. The Asia Pacific is found to have vast natural gas resources, though suitable policies are needed to develop the potential. For instance, incentives will be necessary for investment in gas and LNG technology, as increased market share will not occur if investment does not take place in a timely fashion. In addition, it is important that government intervention not create disincentives for development of the regional gas and LNG industries.
Article
Natural gas is the primary source for electricity production in Turkey. However, Turkey does not have indigenous resources and imports more than 98.0% of the natural gas it consumes. In 2011, more than 20.0% of Turkey's annual trade deficit was due to imported natural gas, estimated at US$ 20.0 billion. Turkish government has very ambitious targets for the country's energy sector in the next decade according to the Vision 2023 agenda. Previously, we have estimated that Turkey's annual electricity demand would be 530,000 GWh at the year 2023. Considering current energy market dynamics it is almost evident that a substantial amount of this demand would be supplied from natural gas. However, meticulous analysis of the Vision 2023 goals clearly showed that the information about the natural gas sector is scarce. Most importantly there is no demand forecast for natural gas in the Vision 2023 agenda. Therefore, in this study the aim was to generate accurate forecasts for Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030. For this purpose, two semi-empirical models based on econometrics, gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita, and demographics, population change, were developed. The logistic equation, which can be used for long term natural gas demand forecasting, and the linear equation, which can be used for medium term demand forecasting, fitted to the timeline series almost seamlessly. In addition, these two models provided reasonable fits according to the mean absolute percentage error, MAPE %, criteria. Turkey's natural gas demand at the year 2030 was calculated as 76.8 billion m(3) using the linear model and 83.8 billion m(3) based on the logistic model. Consequently, found to be in better agreement with the official Turkish petroleum pipeline corporation (BOTAS) forecast, 76.4 billion m(3), than results published in the literature.
Article
In this study, we review mathematical models of trends in the production of non-renewable resources. We propose new models that allow specifying curve asymmetry and use genetic algorithms as curve-fitting methods. We estimate the quality of fit of our proposed models and use them to predict oil production in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, the EU, the U.S., Norway, Syria, the UK, and some fields in Russia; gas production in the EU, the UK and Italy; shale gas production in the U.S.; coal production in the U.S. and Germany; as well as global gold production. The models fit the data accurately in all these cases.
Article
Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.
Article
Worldwide shale oil resources in the U.S., China, Russia, Poland and France could mean that potential world oil production could double or triple in the next few decades. However, not all of these new reserves may be as large or as productive as North Dakota's Bakken shale oil. In addition reserves of shale oil look to be a lot less in relative terms than the reserves of shale gas as evidenced by the price of natural gas in the U.S. compared to the price of oil. This suggests that the U.S. and world supplies of shale oil may be limited. In this article, we will look to attempt a different type of forecast for oil using a modified Hubbert curve oil production forecast. We look at possible world oil production trends rather than just U.S. oil production trends. Two interesting comparisons of the world oil production trend to other regional trends are the former Soviet Union's oil production trend and the U.S. oil production trend. If we compare the current world oil production trend to those previous trends using indexation, then we can get an idea of what may happen to world oil production in the future.
Article
Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world largest natural gas reserves and it is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia’s exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20-40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11-12 Tcf in 2030 and 13-14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30 percent by 2030 and almost 50 percent in 2050. Europe’s reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia.
Article
Asia's share of global demand for natural gas has increased from 13 to 18 per cent over the past decade, and the overall consumption has nearly doubled. At the same time, there is a growing gap between regional natural gas demand and supply, with increasing reliance on imports. Regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are forecast to increase by 60 per cent by 2030, and natural gas has been described as Asia's “fuel of the future”. Asian LNG importers seek to diversify their supplier mix as much as possible to lower the prices and to reduce economic vulnerability to future disruptions or the failure of any one producer to provide adequate supplies. This paper explores major regional importers' approaches to LNG import diversification between 2002 and 2012 and explains why patterns of LNG imports differ between states and over time. The focus of the paper is on five largest LNG importers in the region: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Article
The evolution of global and regional LNG trade over the past twenty years has been a story of rapid growth, diversification and increased flexibility in LNG cargo movements. Asia continues to dominate global LNG trade, but the European LNG market has evolved significantly in the past decade and seems destined for sustained growth and diversification over the next decade or so. Despite the LNG import market in North America being overwhelmed by unconventional gas developments in the past few years, future sustained growth of LNG demand in Asia and Europe are underpinned by firm new project commitments. A number of North American LNG export projects are progressing with a view to supplying this growing market demand in Europe and Asia. New gas discoveries in deepwater offshore East Africa and Eastern Mediterranean are also likely to compete for LNG market share in growing European and Asian gas markets Country and regional statistics presented illustrate how significantly the global LNG industry has changed in the past decade. These statistics reveal the complexity of commercial, political and technical drivers at play, particularly in the case of Europe, and how these drivers are conspiring to boost future demand for LNG.