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Analysis of Changes in the Natural and Climatic Conditions of the Functioning of the Construction Industry (Operation of Buildings and Structures) in the Region

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Materials Science Forum
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Abstract

The manifestations of climatic changes on the territory of the south of the European part of Russia are considered. The estimates for the changes in the seasonal and annual average, maximum and minimum air temperatures, in the seasonal and annual sum of precipitation, daily maximum precipitation as well as the dynamics of the number of their extreme values in different climatic zones of southern Russia and in different seasons are obtained. Possible effects of climate change on the functioning of the construction industry in different climatic zones of the region are considered.
Analysis of Changes in the Natural and Climatic Conditions
of the Functioning of the Construction Industry
(Operation of Buildings and Structures) in the Region
B.A. Ashabokov1,2,a, A.V. Shapovalov2,b and A.A. Tashilova2,c*
1Institute of Informatics and problems of regional management of KBSC of RAS,
37A In. Armand str., Nalchik, 360051, Russia
2High-Mountain geophysical institute, 2 Lenin Ave., Nalchik, 360030, Russia
aashabokov.boris@mail.ru, batajuk@mail.ru, ctashilovaa@mail.ru
Keywords: climate change, the south of the European territory of Russia, climatic zones, time
series, air temperature, precipitation, extremes, construction, buildings.
Abstract. The manifestations of climatic changes on the territory of the south of the European part
of Russia are considered. The estimates for the changes in the seasonal and annual average,
maximum and minimum air temperatures, in the seasonal and annual sum of precipitation, daily
maximum precipitation as well as the dynamics of the number of their extreme values in different
climatic zones of southern Russia and in different seasons are obtained. Possible effects of climate
change on the functioning of the construction industry in different climatic zones of the region are
considered.
Introduction
Climate warming becomes a factor that can have a significant impact on the environment, on the
functioning of economic sectors and other areas of activity. In recent years, the world has witnessed
the largest natural disasters in recent history (floods, droughts, abnormally high temperatures, high
winds, forest fires and others). These phenomena are not the result of an accidental confluence of
circumstances. The growth of destructive force of dangerous natural phenomena observed in recent
years is natural and in the future such catastrophes will be more frequent [3, 6, 10, 11]. The reason
for this trend in the dynamics of these phenomena is climate warming, which, as studies show, is
accelerating [4, 5, 7]. In this regard, the urgency of addressing such problems as the analysis and
forecast of climate change and its consequences, the search for ways to adapt various spheres of
human activity to these changes and reduce the risks associated with dangerous natural phenomena
is increasing and addressing these problems is currently being given great attention [8, 12, 13]. This
applies to the construction industry and, it should be noted, in the context of modern climate change
and rapid socioeconomic changes, the problems of the buildings and structures exploitation have
become extremely topical. The 5-th IPCC Report (2014) notes that "... the fact of climate warming
is unquestionable, and many of the changes observed since the 1950s had no precedents over tens to
thousands of years" [16]. The Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation states that climate change
is one of the most important international problems of the 21st century, which goes beyond the
scientific problem [9].
Results and Discussion
The study of the regional climate is an important component of understanding modern global
climate change. Climatic features of the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) are caused
by a number of factors, the main ones of which are the Caucasian mountains. According to the
nature of the relief, the territory of the North Caucasus is usually divided into three zones: the plain
(<500 m above the sea level (asl)), the foothills (500-1000 m asl), the mountain (> 1000 m asl) and
high-mountainous (> 2000 m asl). Series of air temperature and precipitation (50-years) at 20
meteorological stations in the south of Russia were used to estimate the changes in precipitation and
Materials Science Forum Submitted: 2018-05-13
ISSN: 1662-9752, Vol. 931, pp 1031-1036 Accepted: 2018-05-28
doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/MSF.931.1031 Online: 2018-09-20
© 2018 Trans Tech Publications Ltd, Switzerland
All rights reserved. No part of contents of this paper may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the written permission of Trans
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... The tendency of growth in the number of DPh (avalanches, mudflows, breaks of glacial lakes, etc.) is noted also in the North Caucasus, in particular, in the vicinity of the Mt. Elbrus (KBR) [2], which is explained, and there are also changes in temperature condition of the region [3][4]. ...
... Observations of snow cover begin during the autumn period from the moment of appearance of the first (temporary) snow cover and continue before its total disappearance during the spring period. According to works [3,4] for the last 50-60 years, in the south of the European territory of Russia (except for a mountain part), increase in average decade height of snow cover by 0.35 cm/10 years with the maximum growth rate of height of snow cover in a foothill zone was observed. Since 1976 there was a considerable shift of the beginning of appearance of snow cover towards later dates (+3 days/10 years) and the small shift of the end of a descent of snow cover to late dates for 0.7 days/years. ...
... According to [2,4], the sharp retreat of glaciers since the late 90s of the 20th century was due to a significant increase in summer temperatures by 0.43 °C/10 years [3,4]. An ...
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... -пшеница: хлеб (x 11 ), хлебобулочные изделия (x 12 ), мука (x 13 ), крупа (x 14 Можно заметить, что перерабатывающая отрасль производит 45 видов продуктов. ...
Chapter
The purpose of the work is to analyze the problem of adaptation of various fields of activity to climate change, to formulate the tasks of adapting the agro-industrial complex (AIC) and to analyze the features of information support and methods for solving the tasks of its adaptation plan, to develop a method for solving one of the tasks of this plan the formation and coordination of target indicators of the development of the agro-industrial complex. To solve the above problems, the results of the analysis of climate change in the territory of the North Caucasus, the model for optimizing the functioning of the “crop industry—processing industry” system, developed to form and agree on target indicators for the development of the regional agro-industrial complex, were used. It is noted that at the regional level it is not advisable to limit adaptation to climate change only to agriculture, this problem at this level should be considered for the “agriculture—processing industry” system, taking into account the relationship between its elements, the goals of adapting this system to climate change are formulated. The formulations of the tasks of the adaptation plan for the regional agro-industrial complex are given, the approach to solving the problem of forming and coordinating the target indicators of the agro-industrial complex is outlined, some calculation results are given. The main results of the work are: the formulation of the tasks of adapting the agro-industrial complex to climate change, the model for optimizing the functioning of the “crop industry—processing industry” system, developed to solve the problem of forming and coordinating target indicators for the development of the regional agro-industrial complex.KeywordsClimate changeAgro-industrial complexObjectives of the adaptation planFormation and coordination of target indicators
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