Chaim D. Kaufmann is Associate Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.
The author's thanks are owed to Robert Art, Pauline Baker, John Mearsheimer, Robert Pape, Edward Rhodes, Jack Snyder, Monica Toft, Stephen Van Evera, Barbara Walter, and the members of the University of Chicago Program on International Security and Policy for comments. Research for this article was supported by the United States Institute of Peace.
1. John J. Mearsheimer, "Shrink Bosnia to Save It," New York Times, March 31, 1993; Mearsheimer and Stephen W. Van Evera, "When Peace Means War," New Republic, December 18, 1995, pp. 16-21; Robert M. Hayden, "Schindler's Fate: Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, and Population Transfers," Slavic Review, Vol. 55, No. 4 (Winter 1996), pp. 740-742; Ivo H. Daalder, "Bosnia after SFOR: Options for Continued U.S. Engagement," Survival, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Winter 1997-98), pp. 5-18; Robert A. Pape, "Partition: An Exit Strategy for Bosnia," Survival, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Winter 1997-98), pp. 25-28; and Michael O'Hanlon, "Turning the Cease-fire into Peace," Brookings Review, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Winter 1998), pp. 41-44. In addition, some analysts who oppose the partition of Bosnia admit that reintegration of the separated populations would be very difficult. See Charles G. Boyd, "Making Bosnia Work," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No. 1 (January/February 1998), pp. 42-55; Susan L. Woodward, "Avoiding Another Cyprus or Israel," Brookings Review, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Winter 1998), pp. 45-48; and Jane M.O. Sharp, "Dayton Report Card," International Security, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Winter 1997/98), p. 133. Flora Lewis, "Reassembling Yugoslavia," Foreign Policy, No. 98 (Spring 1995), pp. 132-144, argues that Bosnia could be reintegrated.
2. Barry R. Posen, "The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict," in Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 103-124; Chaim Kaufmann, "Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars," International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring 1996), pp. 136-175; and Daniel L. Byman, "Divided They Stand: Lessons about Partition from Iraq and Lebanon," Security Studies, Vol. 7, No. 1 (Autumn 1997), pp. 1-29. See also Myron S. Weiner, "Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: An Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows," International Security, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Summer 1996), pp. 37-38; and Clive J. Christie, "Partition, Separatism, and National Identity," Political Quarterly, Vol. 63, No. 1 (January-March 1992), pp. 68-78. On why separation can resolve ethnic conflicts but not ideological civil wars, see Chaim Kaufmann, "Intervention in Ethnic and Ideological Civil Wars," Security Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Autumn 1996), pp. 62-103.
3. Radha Kumar, "The Troubled History of Partition," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 1 (January/February 1997), pp. 22-34.
4. Posen, "Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict," pp. 108-111.
5. The processes of war, especially reports of real or imagined enemy atrocities, also harden ethnic identities and solidify hostility and mistrust, creating additional hard-to-counter threat perceptions even in excess of real threats; this effect persists for a considerable time even after the end of large-scale fighting. Kaufmann, "Possible and Impossible Solutions," pp. 141-145, 150-151.
6. For additional types of proposed solutions to ethnic conflicts, see Donald L. Horowitz, "Making Moderation Pay," in Joseph V. Montville, ed., Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies (New York: Lexington Books, 1991), pp. 451-476; Arend J. Lijphart, "The Power-Sharing Approach," in ibid., pp. 491-510; Gidon Gottlieb, Nation against State (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1993); and I. William Zartman, "Putting Things Back Together," in Zartman, ed., Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1995), pp. 267-273. For an analysis that focuses on perceptual rather than structural aspects of intergroup security dilemmas, and recommends solutions based on institution and confidence building, see David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, "Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict," International Security, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Fall 1996), pp. 41-75.
7. Although, in principle, final political arrangements could be based on either regional autonomy or separate sovereignty, in practice, demographic separation is likely to be...