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Research on climate change and migration where are we and where are we going?
Abstract
Today the issue of climate change-induced mobility—whether displacement, migration, or relocation—is receiving increased interest from policy-makers, academics, and the general public. Many are turning to the academic community for answers to basic questions (how many people are expected to move? when? where?) and for directions for future policies (what measures can support people to remain in their communities? If people have to move, how can the disruption be minimized—for those moving and for the affected communities?). While there is a growing body of literature on the issue, the academic community writ large is presently unable to provide consistent comprehensive evidence or guidance on these issues. Most obviously, there is no consensus about what terminology to use—climate change refugee? Environmental migrant? [e.g. Dun and Gemenne 2008. ‘Defining Environmental Migration’, Forced Migration Review, 31: 10–11]. Nor is there consensus on how many people are expected to move; different research projects use different time frames (2030, 2050, 2100, etc.), are based on different assumptions, and (not surprisingly) come up with different estimates, ranging from 50 million to 1 billion migrants associated with the effects of climate change during this century [e.g. Stern, N. (2006) ‘Stern review on the economics of climate change. Executive Summary’. London: HM Treasury. Baird 2007. Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis: A Christian Aid Report. London: Christian Aid; UN Development Programme (UNDP) (2007/2008). Human Development Report: Fighting Climate Change, Human Solidarity in a Divided World; Kolmannskog 2009, Climate Change, Disaster, Displacement and Migration: Initial Evidence from Africa. New Issues in Refuge Research (Research Paper No. 180). Geneva: UNHCR; Warner 2009. Global Environmental Change and Migration: Governance Challenges. Global Environmental Change].
... A critical aspect of climate change that requires our attention and focus is its impact on migration patterns in local communities. As climate change intensifies, it becomes increasingly clear that rural communities are on the front lines of negative impacts ( Ferris, 2020;Islam, 2022). Rising sea levels, extreme weather conditions, water scarcity, and desertification are just a few examples of the environmental changes forcing people to migrate from unfavourable climatic regions in pursuit of more favourable areas for refuge (McKinley et al., 2021). ...
... A review of the literature revealed that global solutions can be integrated with local solutions by considering the specific needs, contexts, and cultures of local communities (Birk & Rasmussen, 2014). Scholars of this view argue that a bottom-up approach engages local stakeholders and ensures their active participation in decision-making processes ( Ferris, 2020). An additional supporting argument is that several global-based strategies have often failed in promoting sustainable and resilient livelihood options in certain regions due to a lack of understanding and recognition of local realities (Brzoska & Fröhlich, 2015;Baldwin & Fornalé, 2017). ...
... The results are often mixed in the literature on promoting sustainable and resilient livelihood options in rural communities (Ferris, 2020). On the one hand, studies have highlighted successful cases where interventions such as capacity building, access to resources, and income diversification have led to improved livelihoods and resilience in rural communities (Kothari, 2014). ...
The Global Compact on Migration recognised climate change as a critical factor in migration and displacement and called on the global community to address the issue. However, recent reports suggest that global efforts to address the impacts of climate change on migration have not been able to address climate change-induced migration substantially. Global actions have often resulted in suboptimal outcomes. This study, therefore, sought to explore how local challenges can be leveraged in addressing global issues. A systematic literature review was conducted to analyse the potential of local solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change on migration. Information was obtained from full-text peer-reviewed journals published between 2010 to 2023 from the Scopus database. Atlas ti.23 was used to create codes and themes and then construct flowcharts that effectively demonstrate the importance of addressing issues at the local level when dealing with global challenges. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge on how local approaches can mitigate the impact of climate on migration.
... At the same time environmental shocks can also prevent people from escaping, affecting populations in LLMICs in particular (Rikani et al., 2023). Many academic debates remain in regard to terminologies, the scale of the issue, response mechanisms and how CC and ED might cause or prohibit population movement (Ferris, 2020;Heslin et al., 2019). ...
... Immobility, on the other hand, refers to populations that are unable to move and change location in the context of sudden or gradual climate-related events. Reasons for immobility can be found in a wide range of intersecting factors linked to environmental, social, political, economic or health related issues (Ferris, 2020). Some may also choose not to move or do not manage to escape in time and instead, end up (in-)voluntarily immobile or 'trapped' (Ayeb-Karlsson, 2021). ...
... The influences of climate-and ED-related mobility on children are increasingly recognized in the literature (Ferris, 2020;Richards & Bradshaw, 2017;UNICEF, 2017a). There is widespread acknowledgment in publications from practitioners, policy actors and scholars that children face multiple heightened risks in the context of displacement and migration, such as family separation, exposure to exploitation, violence and abuse, loss of education, increased vulnerability to psychological trauma and physical harm, and their right to an identity (UNICEF, 2017a. ...
This scoping review of the literature explores the interlinkages between two pressing crises: violence against children (VAC) and climate change (CC) together with environmental degradation (ED). Only recently have research and policy begun to shine a light on the magnifying effect of CC on children’s exposure to violence, exploitation, and abuse, with the role of ED remaining under-explored. To spur academic and political movement in this area, our research aims to help establish the magnitude, direction, and pathways of the relationship between CC, ED, and VAC. We showcase the complexity of that relationship and illustrate, in the form of case studies, why context-specific approaches and more research are needed. Doing so, we cover five thematic areas: 1) Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction, 2) Gender, 3) Im/mobility, 4) Child Labour and 5) Health. Taking all five thematic areas together, structural violence against children emerged as a cross-cutting theme, creating and reinforcing the conditions for multiple forms of VAC in the context of CC and ED.
... It is still unclear to what extent migration occurs as an adaptive strategy for people dealing with adverse environmental conditions (Mcleman & Smit, 2006;Müller-Mahn & Gebreyes, 2019;Warner, 2010). In the context of SSA, little is known to fully support one of these arguments (Ferris, 2020). Previous studies and meta-analyses have investigated different cases of environmental migration in SSA providing a wealth of information on socio-environmental conditions underlying relatively recent migrations in Africa (Borderon et al., 2019;Hoffmann et al., 2020;Kaczan & Orgill-Meyer, 2019;Laczko & Aghazarm, 2009;Lilleør & Van den Broeck, 2011;Marchiori et al., 2012;Naudé, 2010;Neumann & Hilderink, 2015;Rigaud et al., 2018). ...
... The term "Environmental Migration" is not internationally agreed upon (Table 1). Therefore, researchers in this field used a variety of other terms to describe persons displaced as a result of extreme or slow -onset environmental conditions, including climate change refugees or migrants and environmental refugees or migrants (Ferris, 2020;Hinnawi & UNEP, 1985;IOM, 2007IOM, , 2014McAdam, 2009;McNamara et al., 2017), while the phenomenon has been referred to as environmental migration, climate migration (Chazalnoël & Ionesco, 2016), and disaster displacement ( Table 1). The use of "climate refugees" status to represent migration in the context of climate change fails to recognize human mobility from environmental degradation and more generally environmental change as well as voluntary migration from slow-onset processes (Chazalnoël & Ionesco, 2016). ...
... In agreement with the definitions given by (Brown, 2014;Brown et al., 2007) here we use the terms 'environmental migration' and 'environmental displacement' as the most comprehensive terminology for this research. It should be noted that the term includes people who migrate in response to environmental drivers that are not related to climate change (Table 1), such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, and also extreme hydrometeorological events that are not necessarily induced by climate change (Ferris, 2020). ...
Non-technical summary
Environmental threats to shelter, livelihoods, and food security are often considered push factors for intra-African human migration. Research in this field is often fragmented into a myriad of case studies on specific subregions or events, thus preventing a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. This paper examines environmental drivers reported in the literature as push factors for human displacement across 32 sub-Saharan African countries between 1990 and 2021. Extensive consultation of past studies and reports with analytical methods shows that environmental migration is complex and influenced by multiple direct and indirect factors. Non-environmental drivers compound the effects of environmental change.
Technical summary
Intra-African environmental migration is a bleak reality. Warming trends, aridification, and the intensification of extreme climate events, combined with underlying non-environmental drivers, may set millions of people on the move. Despite previous studies and meta-analyses on environmental migration within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), conclusive empirical evidence of the relationship between environmental change and migration is still missing. Here we draw on 87 case studies published in the scholarly literature (from fields ranging from the environmental sciences to development economics and migration research) or documented by research databases, reports, and international disaster datasets to develop a meta-analysis investigating the relationship between environmental changes and migration across SSA. A combination of quantitative, Qualitative Comparative Analyses (QCA), and statistical correlation methods are used to analyze the metadata and investigate the complex web of environmental drivers of environmental migration in SSA while highlighting subregional differences in the predominant environmental forcing. We develop a new conceptual framework for investigating the cascading flow of interdependences among environmental change drivers of human displacement while reconstructing the main migration patterns across SSA. We also present new insights into the way non-environmental factors are exposing communities in SSA to high vulnerability and reduced resilience to environmental change.
Social media summary
Human displacement in sub-Saharan Africa is often associated with the effects of climate change and environmental degradation.
... The repercussions of climate change mean that changes in migratory patterns are materializing on a more rapid scale, as climate risks threaten more of the planet, impacting land and resources that human populations depend upon (IPCC, 2021). Climate-related migration has erupted as a distinct discourse, with copious developmental, humanitarian, research, and policy fields aiming to grasp its complexity (Ferris, 2020). ...
... The climate change and migration 'nexus' has been captured by an extensive display of research (Ionesco et al., 2017, Ferris, 2020, Hoffmann et al., 2021, Wright et al., 2021, Chazalnoël and Randall, 2021, Cundill et al., 2021, Obokata et al., 2014, McLeman et al., 2016, Oakes et al., 2020, Boas et al., 2019, Piguet, 2022, Warner and Afifi, 2014. Additionally, the roles of social protection in responding to environmental related shocks and climatic impacts has also been comprehensively recognized (Davies et al., 2008, Davies et al., 2009, Kuriakose et al., 2012, Béné et al., 2012, Béné et al., 2014, Tenzing, 2019, Rigolini, 2021, Longhurst and Sabates-Wheeler, 2019, Devereux and Sabates-Wheeler, 2004. ...
... In 2021, of the 38 million internal displacements globally, 23.7 were caused by disasters (IDMC, 2022). Climate change is often viewed as a "threat multiplier" that increases the likelihood of conflict and instability, exacerbating the risk of internal displacement (Ferris, 2020, Pacillo et. al., 2021. 1 Numerous studies have captured the reality of forced immobility in relation to climate change (Castells-Quintana et al., 2018;Choksi et al., 2021;Cundill et al., 2021;Deshingkar et al., 2015;É des and Gemenne, 2015;Johnson and Krishnamurthy, 2010;Schwan and Yu, 2018;Choquette-Levy et al., 2020). ...
Social protection, as a vulnerability response tool, is well-placed to equip climate-vulnerable populations with resources that de-risk livelihoods and smooth consumption. This systematic literature review of 28 studies identifies evidence for how social protection has influenced beneficiaries’ migration decisions, experiences, and outcomes in the context of a changing climate, through cash transfers, public work programs, insurance, and health care. The review reveal three key interlinkages between social protection policies and climate-migration, where social protection is recognized as a policy tool that can (i) ease the financial barriers to migration as a means of de-risking climate change impacts, (ii) address adverse drivers and structural factors that may compel people to engage in maladaptive, distress migration and (iii) support those ‘left at home’ in maintaining their livelihoods when they do not wish to leave. Understanding how social protection can be leveraged to stimulate positive climate-migration outcomes can aid policymakers, development practitioners, local governments, and social protection beneficiaries capitalize the necessary support in circumstances of migration or immobility in the context of adverse climate conditions. Knowledge gaps remain regarding the optimal methods in which social protection can support vulnerable groups and encourage positive outcomes of climate-migration. We expand the knowledge base by making a case for the inclusion of social protection in climate change and human migration debates; highlighting research and policy gaps and missed opportunities; and advocating for further empirical research on interlinkages and documentation of approaches where social protection can support voluntary, planned migration decisions where long-term adaptation is no longer viable.
... As such, most of them are dependent on following an approximately fixed seasonal pattern of movements to sustain their agricultural activities, transporting some form of mobile dwelling. It is estimated that there are currently a least 30-40 million rural nomads, primarily found across Sub-Saharan Africa, South-Asia, and Central America [3]. On the other hand, areas where sedentary agriculture can be sustainably practiced are rapidly decreasing, leading to climate-change induced mobility worldwide [4]. ...
... Recent advancements in distributed control algorithms have enabled the consideration of mobile and decentralized energy system solutions in the context with a migratory lifestyle [16,17]. In most regions currently practicing nomadism, in fact, family clusters tend to be relatively close to each other, following similar seasonal migration patterns [3]. This creates the possibility for temporary interconnection among them to form a mobile herder household energy supply system (i.e. ...
... The images on the left of Figure 1 demonstrate the changing microgrid configurations and respective estimated time resolutions for a typical operational scenario encountered. Starting from normal conditions (1), one of the DGs is disconnected in (2) as a family decides to migrate, and it eventually reconnects to the microgrid in (3). The right sub-plots (a)-(d) in Figure 1 demonstrate that PP operation is able to maintain appropriate values for frequency ( ), active power ratio , active power ( ), and voltage ( ), respectively, across scenarios (1)-(3). ...
Ongoing risks from climate change have impacted the livelihood of global nomadic communities, and are likely to lead to increased migratory movements in coming years. As a result, mobility considerations are becoming increasingly important in energy systems planning, particularly to achieve energy access in developing countries. Advanced Plug and Play control strategies have been recently developed with such a decentralized framework in mind, more easily allowing for the interconnection of nomadic communities, both to each other and to the main grid. In light of the above, the design and planning strategy of a mobile multi-energy supply system for a nomadic community is investigated in this work. Motivated by the scale and dimensionality of the associated uncertainties, impacting all major design and decision variables over the 30-year planning horizon, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is implemented for the design and planning problem tackled. DRL based solutions are benchmarked against several rigid baseline design options to compare expected performance under uncertainty. The results on a case study for ger communities in Mongolia suggest that mobile nomadic energy systems can be both technically and economically feasible, particularly when considering flexibility, although the degree of spatial dispersion among households is an important limiting factor. Key economic, sustainability and resilience indicators such as Cost, Equivalent Emissions and Total Unmet Load are measured, suggesting potential improvements compared to available baselines of up to 25%, 67% and 76%, respectively. Finally, the decomposition of values of flexibility and plug and play operation is presented using a variation of real options theory, with important implications for both nomadic communities and policymakers focused on enabling their energy access.
... What is cause for painstaking concern is that the global community continues to experience energy (Sun et al. 2022). Similarly, climate-related migration has emerged as a unique discourse, and a plethora of policy, academic, development, and social areas are working to understand its complexity (Ferris 2020). ...
Generally, over 35% of global energy use and 40% of carbon emissions are attributed to the built environment while future forecasts indicate that these values may rise much further. In South Africa (SA), building stocks account for 40% of the country’s final energy demand which strains the country's coal-dependent energy grid and oftentimes results in power outages. Optimizing energy efficiency and thermal comfort while attaining the lofty goal of carbon neutrality is essential for all concerned stakeholders in the building sector globally. Meanwhile, green building (GB), being a recognized revolutionary theory and practice in the building industry, is suggested as a solution to SA’s environmental challenges. On this wise, this research aimed to develop energy-efficient models for optimizing green buildings into the design and operation of buildings to allay their environmental impacts. The goal was to enhance energy efficiency, decrease energy consumption, and mitigate carbon emissions across diverse climates, thus benefiting South Africa's built environment. To achieve the study's goals, three primary research objectives were identified and pursued namely: (i) To provide an overview on status-quo of green building development in South Africa with a view to explore the status quo and provide roadmap for improvement; (ii)To examine the energy-saving potential of incorporating building-integrated greenery systems towards climate resilience in the subtropical climate zone of South Africa; and (iii) To investigate the energy-performance of green building renewable energy utilization systems within South Africa’s hot and arid climate zones. Initially, the study's first objective entailed a comprehensive literature overview integrating climate, sustainability, and building energy modeling within the South African context. This was carried out through a scoping review approach via the PRISMA guideline of reporting Subsequent objectives involved selecting reference buildings and creating hypothesized models as case studies based on six climate zones from the South African National Standard. For the second objective, a thorough and integrative approach that linked building energy modelling and varying climatic change was devised. The numerical parametric simulation and analysis, being a quantitative research approach was adopted as a data collection method. Similarly, the third objective employed numerical parametric simulation as a data gathering method in this research, which is based on a quantitative analysis to explore various design options iteratively. In the second and third objectives, Global climate databases, Meteonorm, Climate Consultant, and energy simulation software such as DesignBuilder, EnergyPlus, and Polysun were used for weather data analysis, climate modeling, and building energy simulation. The findings highlighted that while South Africa boasts notable green construction projects, scientific research progress has not matched international levels. The focus was on promoting green building adoption through standards, certifications, and incentives. However, gaps were observed in optimized energy performance and post-occupancy evaluation of existing buildings. Despite high awareness, the utilization of green building technologies among South African professionals did not meet anticipated levels. For the second objective, the study's findings indicated an increase in extreme heat waves with higher peak temperatures in the future. Building energy use in the study area is projected to rise by 8-24% from 2030 to 2080. Notably, heat gains primarily result from envelope thermal transfer rather than solar radiation. Greenery systems were found to effectively support green building goals and urban sustainability across anticipated seasons. Nature-based solutions proved successful in adapting to climate change compared to non-retrofitted conventional buildings. For the last objective, the study revealed regions with substantial solar irradiance, indicating potential for renewable energy adoption. It emphasized the need for durable BIPV systems in high-temperature conditions. BIPV modules generated more energy in Upington than Nelspruit due to varying solar radiation. Opportunities were identified for BIPV systems to achieve optimal power generation. The study provides a foundation for informed decision-making, policy formulation, and targeted research in sustainable building practices. The study presents practical principles to guide urban planners and policymakers in integrating eco-friendly technology into both new and existing building designs. This promotes sustainable urban development and reduces cities' carbon emissions. Going forward, to showcase the effectiveness of these energy-efficient and climate-responsive systems to the public and industry stakeholders, it is recommended to establish and enhance large scale demonstration projects in South Africa's subtropical, hot and arid regions.
... In this sense, the authors establish a counterpoint to the discussion presented in this section. Ferris (2020) shows that from the 1980s to the late 2010s, the field of studies on the connections between the environment and climate and migration was in formation, but with several gaps, including the difficulty in building a consensus on which terminology or concept to use. Terms such as "environmental refugees", "climate refugees", "environmental migrants", "climate migrants", "climate-induced migrants" or "climate-induced mobility" illustrate the difficulty in establishing who these people are, although there is agreement that natural disasters and climate change can have a direct or indirect correlation with mobility, whether forced or voluntary. ...
This article discusses natural disasters as the main factor that have led to forced migration processes in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to the United States between 2018 and 2023. These three countries have similarities in that their contexts of poverty and violence that force people to flee from them. They are also considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to be some of the most vulnerable places in Latin America to climate change. We analyzed data on internal displacement and asylum-seekers from these countries; statistics on the apprehension of migrants at the Southwest land border of the United States; data on natural disasters. This article aims to show that disasters can influence internal and international forced migration. By identifying potential environmental refugees in Central American migrations, we hope to draw attention to the need for legal protection for these people in situations of vulnerability.
... Early research and debates on this relationship have emphasised-often in an alarmist and apocalyptic narrative-survival migration and involuntary displacement as a result of adaptation failure and the breakdown of livelihoods, and have considered mobility only as a last resort (El -Hinnawi E, 1985;Myers 2002). Since the COP16 in Cancun, Mexico, and the publication of the UK Government's influential 2011 Foresight report on Migration and Global Environmental Change (Foresight 2011), more attention has been placed on migration as a mean of adaptation to climate change, as well as on planned relocation and managed retreat (Gemenne and Blocher 2017;Hino et al. 2017;Ferris 2020;Vinke et al. 2020). Research on the relationship between environmental and climate change and human mobility has grown rapidly in recent decades, providing an increasingly robust evidence base (Borderon et al. 2019;Cattaneo et al. 2019;Hoffmann et al. 2021). ...
Recent research on the environmental migration nexus emphasises the need to consider immobile populations alongside those who migrate. A subset of these immobile groups is particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors and lacks the capacity to either adapt or move, a condition often referred to as involuntary immobility or “trapped populations”. Despite growing recognition of this phenomenon, limited knowledge exists on how such immobile households with low adaptive capacities navigate multiple crises, particularly those driven by climate change. To address this gap, we provide a nuanced analysis of immobility in a remote, drought-prone region of Eastern Ethiopia. Using a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design, we (i) identify populations at risk of involuntary immobility through quantitative analysis of data from the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System and (ii) investigate the aspirations and im/mobility dynamics of these populations through qualitative survey data collected in September 2022. Our findings reveal distinct im/mobility patterns, especially among elderly residents, farmers and young mothers, shedding light on the adaptive and survival strategies employed. These strategies often manifest as short-term, short-distance movements, which have become increasingly prevalent in response to everyday challenges. Further research should explore how these micro-mobilities may signal a form of precarisation of individuals.
... Forecasts of the impact of climate change on future migratory flows vary widely, with estimates ranging from 50 million to one billion "climate migrants" by the end of the century (Ferris, 2020). The World Bank's Groundswell report suggests that in the absence of significant, coordinated action to mitigate climate change, there is a potential for 143 million internal "climate migrants" by 2050 (Rigaud et al., 2018). ...
Climate change exacerbates existing risks and vulnerabilities for people globally, and migration is a longstanding adaptation response to climate risk. The mechanisms through which climate change shapes human mobility are complex, however, and gaps in data and knowledge persist. In response to these gaps, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Predictive Analytics, Human Mobility, and Urbanization Project employed a hybrid approach that combined predictive analytics with participatory foresight to explore climate change-related mobility in Pakistan and Viet Nam from 2020 to 2050. Focusing on Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City, the project estimated temporal and spatial mobility patterns under different climate change scenarios and evaluated the impact of such in-migration across key social, political, economic, and environmental domains. Findings indicate that net migration into these cities could significantly increase under extreme climate scenarios, highlighting both the complex spatial patterns of population change and the potential for anticipatory policies to mitigate these impacts. While extensive research exists on foresight methods and theory, process reflections are underrepresented. The innovative approach employed within this project offers valuable insights on foresight exercise design choices and their implications for effective stakeholder engagement, as well as the applicability and transferability of insights in support of policymaking. Beyond substantive findings, this paper offers a critical reflection on the methodological alignment of data-driven and participatory foresight with the aim of anticipatory policy ideation, seeking to contribute to the enhanced effectiveness of foresight practices.
... Human migration history illuminates a common strategy for managing the risks of environmental and climatic changes, as evidence points to prehistoric migration, with more-recent migration patterns emerging in response to climatic shifts (Blake et al., 2021). Climate-related migration has erupted as a distinct discourse, with copious developmental, humanitarian, research, and policy fields aiming to grasp its complexity (Ferris, 2020). ...
This paper is an argue for considering climate change as a security threat, with all the advantages, disadvantages and implications involved in. Our work provides a condensed scientific explanation of how global warming leads to climate change and extreme weather events, and then frame climate change through both a narrow and broad understanding of security. The main research questions addressed in the study are: In what sense might climate change be viewed as a security threat? What are the advantages and disadvantages of viewing climate change as a security threat? What are the funding policy implications in the context of existing climate justice models? With appropriate literature references we argue that climate change can be viewed as a security threat because of its consequences for migration, civil war and interstate conflict, and for human security. Therefore we address the main advantages for considering climate change a security threat (namely the chance for states to prepare for worst-case scenarios) and the main disadvantages (namely the securitisation of climate change). An outline of the components of ‘loss and damage’ policies was made, explaining exactly what sort of measures are required by developing countries and climate-vulnerable countries to respond to climate disasters. Next, four different models for prescribing responsibility onto developed countries for funding climate justice were assessed and critically evaluated. Lastly, concluding remarks covered the overall need for caution when discussing climate change in a security context and the need to ensure a balance is struck between militaristic and humanitarian approaches to climate change.
... A series of estimates placing the number of future international migrants driven by sudden-or slow-onset climate-related hazards in the order of hundreds of millions to a billion (Barnett, 2001;Biermann and Boas, 2017;Christian, 2007;Myers, 2002) have been met with criticism, characterising them as inflated, alarmist, and lacking scientific rigour (Black, 2001;Castles, 2002;Gemenne, 2011;Kolmannskog, 2008). Biased estimates of the role of climate change in displacements triggered by disasters pose a serious issue as they can compromise effective decision making by national and international stakeholders, including humanitarian, legal, development, and security agencies (Ferris, 2020;Stott and Walton, 2013). In addition, over-estimation of climate change impacts in the political discourse entails the risk of diverting attention from important socio-economic issues underlying the local vulnerability to displacements, and hindering disaster risk reduction and preparedness measures (Hulme, 2011;Lahsen and Ribot, 2022;Raju et al., 2022;Ribot, 2014). ...
With an estimated 357.7 million internal displacements caused since 2008, weather-related disasters are a major driver of human mobility worldwide. As climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world, it is important to better understand how trends in weather patterns related to global warming have affected the intensity of disasters that have caused displacements. Here we combined observational and counterfactual climate data with global internal displacement records to estimate how climate change has affected precipitation and wind speeds at the time and location of floods and storms that led to internal displacements. We estimate that, on average, climate change increased precipitation and decreased wind speeds during such events by +3.7% and − 1.4%, respectively. However, the variability across events is considerable (±28.6 and ± 6.6%, respectively), highlighting the large signal of natural variability of the weather system as compared to the global warming signal. Our results caution against overstating the role of climate change in displacement-inducing disasters in the past, especially compared to socio-economic and development factors of vulnerability and adaptive capacity that determine whether weather-related hazards turn into disasters.’
... Extending beyond weather events and environmental disasters, the climate crisis impacts industries, job markets, and the cost of living (Chomsky & Pollin, 2020;Macintosh, 2022). Additionally, it contributes to worsened air quality, the spread of diseases (Williams et al., 2021), decreased mental health (Hrabok et al., 2020), changes in migration patterns (Ferris, 2020), and inter-generational conflicts (Han & Ahn, 2020). Consequently, climate activism plays a crucial role in bringing about a more sustainable future; it represents futureoriented action to strive away from multifaceted risks posed by a negative yet globally shared future. ...
In response to the urgent global climate crisis, climate activism has risen as a potent force. Decision-making regarding climate collective action includes individuals' perceptions of the anticipated future existential risks of the climate crisis (risk of inaction) and present-day political risks of climate activism (risk of action). Our research, spanning four studies (two correlational surveys and two pre-registered experiments), focused on climate activism in Germany (N = 1027). We consistently showed that heightened politicized activist identification was associated with both confrontational and non-confrontational climate collective action across four studies. Furthermore, the anticipated existential climate risk was associated with non-confrontational climate action and present-day political risk with confrontational action. Politicized climate identity remained a robust predictor across different action tactics, while the content and temporality of risk (future existential vs. present-day political) in one's environment determined the transition between engagement in confrontational and non-confrontational climate action dynamically. Nevertheless, we did not find causal links between risk perceptions and collective action. We discuss our findings in line with ESIM (Elaborated Social Identity Model), and potential explanations for the lack of causal relationship and future directions for alternative methodologies and comprehensive conceptualization of risk perceptions are suggested.
... Broadly climate change and an increase in EWEs have both made an important contribution to migration during the past 30 years (Rikani et al., 2023), and have restricted populations movements including preventing people rom escaping EWEs, aecting populations in LLMICs the most (ibid.) Many academic debates remain regarding terminologies, the scale o the issue, response mechanisms and how EWEs might cause or prohibit population movement (Ferris, 2020;Heslin et al., 2018). ...
Background: Only recently have research and policy begun to shine a light on the magnifying effects of EWEs (Extreme Weather Events) on children’s exposure to violence. However, the links between EWEs and VAC (Violence against Children) remain under-theorised, poorly understood and often unacknowledged in policy and practice.
Objective: Identify, synthesize and analyse available evidence on the central characteristics and factors influencing the relationship between VAC and EWEs.
Methods: We conducted an extensive scoping review of the literature (academic and grey) to identify existing research and gaps in knowledge. Using flexible and iteratively developed search terms enabled us to identify direct violence – physical, sexual and emotional – and structural violence, rooted in inequitable and unjust systems and institutions.
Results: The relationship between VAC and EWEs is linked to gender; climate-induced mobility or immobility; child labour; and health. We found that VAC can intensify during EWEs, but the nature of this relationship is contextually specific. The relationship between VAC and EWEs is rooted in historical injustices, global systems and structures, and therefore disproportionately affects those living in poverty.
Conclusion: Studies have uncovered how increasing social, economic and emotional pressures following EWEs increase children’s violence risk exposure. This may occur in their homes or in relief shelters. The violence may involve peers, or forms of hazardous labour that young people are compelled into because of the sudden need for families to rebuild or help make ends meet. More knowledge is needed to inform integrated, context-specific and culturally sensitive plans to better protect children from the consequences of EWEs.
... Given that automobiles contribute to 80% of greenhouse gas emissions, there is an imperative for systemic shifts towards sustainable transportation alternatives. 3 UK's Office for Science (2013) underscores the need for long-term planning and evidence-based policymaking, projecting the paths of urban development and sustainability until 2065 and advocating for a unified approach to the effects of climate change on mobility (Ferris, 2020). ...
The 20th century, known as the "metropolitan century," saw urban populations exceed half the global populace. By 2035, emerging metropolises, particularly in Asia and Africa, highlight the urgent need for research on urban growth, demographics, and mobility's role in sustainable development. This study explores the multifaceted aspects of mobility essential for sustaining metropolitan regions, examining stakeholders' perspectives through a detailed analysis of interview data. Responses are aligned with convergent subcategories derived from classical urban theories and contemporary metropolitan studies, encompassing territorial aspects, scale, place, urbanization, economy, culture, identity, innovation, networks, climate change, and foresight. The findings highlight the intricate interplay of governance, infrastructure, and socio-spatial dynamics in Greater London, underscoring the imperative for sustainable mobility and inclusive planning that integrates environmental concerns into metropolitan life. This research, through a convergent analysis of interviewees' responses, has identified thirty-one fundamental attributes to enhance our understanding of mobility within metropolitan areas, with a particular focus on the case study of Greater London. Future research directions include extending this framework to other metropolises and a deeper exploration of the attributes identified in London, employing both qualitative and quantitative methods to enrich our understanding of urban sustainability and mobility.
... [24], stress is placed on the need for long-term, evidence-based planning, projecting urban development and sustainability trajectories through 2065, and calls for a unified approach are made to addressing climate change's effects on mobility [49]. ...
The 21st century, known as the “metropolitan century”, saw urban populations exceed half the global populace. By 2035, emerging metropolises, particularly in Asia and Africa, highlight the urgent need for research on urban growth, demographics, and mobility’s role in sustainable development. The objective of this study is to explore the key aspects of mobility essential for sustaining metropolitan regions, with a focus on the case of Greater London. The research aims to understand, through interview analysis and urban theories, how mobility contributes to socio-spatial equity, connectivity, and integrated governance, highlighting the importance of sustainability—such as decarbonization and the promotion of non-motorized transport—in the context of global sustainable development commitments. This research, through a convergent analysis of interviewees’ responses, has identified thirty-one fundamental attributes to enhance our understanding of sustainable mobility. The results indicate that mobility is a key driver for socio-spatial equity, connectivity, and integrated governance within metropolitan regions; it also shows that successful infrastructure work necessarily calls for collaboration between different administrative levels. Finally, the imperative for sustainability in mobility—as exemplified by decarbonization and the encouragement of non-motorized transport—arises as an urgent element in ordering development at the urban scale vis-à-vis global sustainability commitments, such as SDG 11.
... Sin embargo, todavía hay grandes lagunas en el conocimiento de este fenómeno. Una de las grandes carencias actuales que limitan el desarrollo de políticas y el reconocimiento jurídico de la movilidad humana asociada al cambio climático y desastres es la falta de datos (Ponserre y Ginnetti, 2019;Ferris, 2020;Melde y Flavell, 2020;Vinke y Hoffmann, 2020). Por ello, ampliar la disponibilidad de información y análisis sobre estos movimientos puede ayudar a evaluar la escala del problema y los recursos y acciones necesarias para abordarlo. ...
Este estudio contribuye al análisis de los nexos entre la movilidad humana y el impacto del cambio climático y los desastres en la región, en línea con las prioridades que la Oficina del ACNUR ha establecido en el Marco Estratégico para la Acción Climática (UNHCR Strategic Framework for Climate Action) en relación a la recopilación de datos sobre el fenómeno y su interacción con otros factores de la movilidad. Es el producto de la colaboración entre la Oficina Regional para las Américas del ACNUR y el Observatorio Latinoamericano sobre Movilidad Humana, Cambio Climático y Desastres (MOVE-LAM), una iniciativa de la Universidad para la Paz (UPAZ, con sede en Costa Rica) y de la Red Sudamericana para las Migraciones Ambientales (RESAMA). Esta colaboración persigue impulsar la investigación empírica sobre el impacto del cambio climático y de los desastres en la movilidad humana en el Norte de Centroamérica, focalizando en los casos de El Salvador y Honduras. Pretende generar aportes para superar la escasez de datos sobre el fenómeno, que aún es poco visible en la región a pesar del creciente reconocimiento de la influencia de los factores ambientales en los flujos de población, que exacerban vulnerabilidades e impactan otros factores recurrentes de migración y desplazamiento en la región.
... Over the last two decades, empirical research on environmental migration has focused on understanding the extent to which sudden and/or slow-onset environmental change-including climate change-acts as a driver of human mobility (Morrissey 2009;Piguet, Kaenzig, and Gu� elat 2018;Ferris 2020;_ Ic¸duygu and G€ oren 2023). Studying the nexus between environmental change and mobility, a growing number of scholars and policymakers have framed migration as an adaptation strategy. ...
This qualitative study takes a translocal perspective by considering migrants’ views on environmental change, migration decisions and translocal practices in favour of environmental adaptation. This article addresses the following question: To what extent do migrants’ perceptions of environmental change in their region of origin influence their translocal practices in favour of adaptation to socio-environmental change? Our data show that while environmental change may not be the primary reason that people migrate, nor do they perceive it as such, their translocal practices may have very concrete impacts in environmentally fragile areas, especially with respect to non-migrants in the place of origin. Most practices (e.g. family economic remittances) are spontaneous and unintentionally adaptive to environmental change. In contrast, collective projects initiated through hometown associations, especially in Senegal and Morocco, often have a more intentional and proactive character, resulting in translocal adaptive socio-environmental dynamics.
... These keywords include limits to adaptation, adaptation limits, adaptation constraints, physical limits, social limits, beyond adaptation, residual loss and damage, residual impacts, migration, saline intrusion, agriculture, non-economic losses, climate-related stressors, community-based values, livelihoods, resilience, vulnerable, poor and marginalized, developing countries, and micro insurance. The phrase 'limits to adaptation' is often used in conjunction with the term 'migration', which is not surprising given that migration is seen in literature as an adaptation [17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. Wiederkehr et al. conducted a meta-analysis on adaptation in Sub-Saharan African dryland, analyzing 63 research including over 6700 rural families. ...
This study aims to examine the loss and damage experienced by coastal regions from the perspective of adaptation. It also seeks to evaluate the adaptation techniques employed when migration is utilized as a significant approach to mitigate the effects of loss and damage on coastal communities. This study evaluates the extent of loss and damage caused by constraints on adaptation. Two districts, Khulna and Satkhira, in the Khulna division of Bangladesh, were chosen for the study. In these districts, a total of twenty-four detailed interviews and one focus group discussion (FGD) were conducted with individuals living in rural areas whom climate-related effects and disasters have impacted. Additionally, seven interviews were conducted with climate migrants residing in informal settlements within the words of Khulna City Corporation. The process of identifying appropriate interview candidates involves utilizing a combination of specific criteria and snowball sampling techniques. The study employed NVivo 14 software to conduct theme analysis on textual data obtained from interviews. In the coding procedure, we sequentially employed semantic coding, latent coding, categorization, pattern exploration, and theme creation, all of which were in line with the research aim. The study indicates that most affected persons utilize seasonal and temporary movement as an adaptive strategy to deal with the slow effects of climate change, such as increasing temperatures and salinity in rural regions, and when they encounter limitations in their ability to adapt. Conversely, they opted for permanent migration in response to stringent constraints imposed by severe climate events like cyclones and river erosion, leaving them with no alternative but to move to urban regions. Social networks are crucial in influencing migration choices, as several families depend on information provided by urban relatives and rural neighbors to inform their relocation decisions. Nevertheless, not all individuals impacted by the situation express a desire to relocate; others opt to remain in rural areas due to their sentimental attachment to their birthplaces and a sense of dedication to their ancestral territory. Due to the exorbitant cost of urban life, they believe that opting not to migrate is a more practical option for addressing the repercussions of climate-induced loss and damage. The study’s findings aid policymakers in determining migration strategies and policies to address the adverse effects of coastal population displacement in Bangladesh. Additionally, it aids in determining strategies to address the challenges faced by climate migrants in both urban and rural environments.
... However, for the millions of persons now being displaced by climate change from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Baltic Region, Africa, Central America, and Cuba, the prospects are not so bright (Cattaneo et al. 2019;Chowdhury et al. 2020Chowdhury et al. , 2022Ferris 2020;Nguyen et al. 2023;Smirnov et al. 2023). In order to survive, they will have to leave their home countries and travel to regions of the world where their native language is not spoken, their social and religious customs are deemed unusual, and their occupations may not be appropriate (Helbling 2020;McAdam 2020;Nabong et al. 2023;Vinke et al. 2020). ...
A model for constructing sustainable Climate Change Haven communities in appropriate areas of the United States and globally is presented. The model proposes the construction of walkable communities of 20,000 to 30,000 residents with electricity provided by hydropower generators and biofuel combustion. The remediation of surface-mined areas using switchgrass and flood control dams to redirect excess rainfall will be required in some areas. This model also addresses the multiple social and cultural considerations required to resettle groups of migrants in Climate Change Haven communities, together with the preparation and preservation of nearby farmland for feeding the community.
... The issue of environmental migration is the subject of extensive scientific debate, although the conceptualisation of this phenomenon faces several challenges. This refers to the lack of consensus among scholars on the terminology that should be used in the study of this issue (Ferris, 2020). Several experts use the term "environmental migration", which is usually understood as a form of forced migration (Hugo, 1996). ...
The research relevance is determined by both the growing threats of climate change to Ukraine and russian military aggression against Ukraine, which increase the number of people changing their place of residence due to the deteriorating environmental situation. The experience of countries that have already faced environmental migration predetermined the study’s relevance. The research aims to study and summarise the findings of Western researchers on the consequences of climate change for Oceania, which is seen as a threat to stability, security, and peace in the region and as a factor contributing to the spread of violence and conflict in the region, as well as internal and international population movements. The main methods used to study this issue are analysis, induction, deduction, and synthesis, which allow for describing and highlighting the most important aspects of the problem of environmental migration. The study demonstrates the relationship between climate change and environmental migration and considers its types. The study analyses the role of various actors, regional and national initiatives in improving the efficiency of this process, as well as the case of Tuvalu, which is threatened by flooding and the resettlement of all residents and the government to other countries. The author considers the idea of virtualisation of this state – the creation of its twin in the metaverse in the event of this scenario. Ways to improve climate mobility planning and a set of measures that can contribute to better integration of environmental migrants into host societies are proposed. Potential problems that could lead to conflict situations in the case of environmental displacement are identified. It is concluded that the negative effects of climate change make it important to develop changes in international legislation and to study this aspect in depth by scientists and various international, regional, and local organisations. The author outlines the ways of further research on the problem of environmental migration. The results of the study are of theoretical and practical value for ecologists, historians, sociologists, politicians, and those involved in migration issues
... For example, by authorizing border police to seize valuables up to US$1,450 from incoming refugees, reducing integration benefits, and extending the period needed before applying for family members to be reunited from 1 to 3 years.6 The exact number of projected refugees due to climate change is hotly debated, in part due to the difficulties of defining exactly what counts as climate refugees (see for exampleFerris, 2020). However, it is certain that an increasingly unstable ecological world will produce a significant displacement of many human, as well as nonhuman, populations. ...
Through an encounter with a plantation forest in western Denmark called Klosterheden, this article explores the possibilities for what Anna Tsing calls multispecies resurgence – the ability of ecologies to survive and recover through interspecies cooperation. Highlighting endangered conditions for ongoing survival in a world of Anthropocene proliferations, the article tells three entangled stories of how the forest landscapes in Klosterheden have changed in the past century: First, the story of the forest as a landscape of war. Then, the story of the forest as a landscape of multispecies companionship. And finally, the story of the forest as a landscape in between resurgence and disrepair. The overarching argument is that in an Anthropocene world altered by human activities, ongoing survival requires renewed care and attention towards the complexities of multispecies resurgence. This entails, among other things, making space for the resurgent dynamics of natural ecologies and recognizing the limits of human existence vis-à-vis other forms of earthly life.
... The last two decades have seen growing interest in how climate variability affects human mobility and its consequences (Felgentreff and Pott 2016) but with inconsistent conclusions. Key questions include whether migration constitutes a viable adaptation strategy or a maladaptive coping strategy and how many people may relocate as a direct consequence of ongoing human-induced climate changes (Ferris 2020;Hunter et al. 2015). Climate change has sometimes been depicted as a singular driver of (forced) migration, but social scientists, and especially migration scholars, argue that migration is seldom monocausal but results from the interplay of economic, social, political, cultural and environmental dimensions (Piguet et al. 2011). ...
The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is among the most climate-vulnerable regions worldwide. Climate change, commonly referred to as a “threat multiplier” of pre-existing socioeconomic issues, already undermines rural livelihoods by reducing agricultural yields and income opportunities. This paper provides a review of climate-related migration in the CADC region while identifying the specific pathways by which climate change manifests itself as a threat multiplier to migration. Different forms of human mobility (seasonal/temporal/permanent and internal/international migration) are increasingly attempted as adaptation strategies by affected households to diversify incomes and offset climate impacts. Preferred intra-regional migrant destinations tend to be less climate-vulnerable and also less violent. Notably, climate change is not isolated from socioeconomic and political migration drivers. Erosion of rural livelihoods reduces the costs of engaging in illicit coping strategies (e.g., illegal crop production) and simultaneously favours rapid urbanisation, which is linked to (forced) gang recruitment, primarily affecting the youth. These processes contribute to extraordinarily high violence levels, which are a major push factor for migration on their own, ultimately challenging state authority. Moreover, as outmigration from the region is projected to increase, the observed securitisation of borders, particularly along the USA-Mexico border and the Mexico-Guatemala border, while unfit to limit migration attempts, make migration more desperate and dangerous, allowing organised crime to step in and exploit migration as an economic undertaking. Thus, for the CADC, the depoliticised and simplistic narrative of migration serving as adaptation must be questioned. Policy coherence and state capacity for addressing climate-security-migration nexus challenges are critical needs.
... Ferris (2020) kokoaa yhteen tietoa ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvästä muuttoliikkeestä. Arviot muuttoliikkeen määrästä vuoteen 2100 vaihtelevat 50 miljoonasta 1 miljardiin, mikä kertoo paitsi suuresti vaihtelevista lähtöoletuksista, niin myös vaikeudesta tuottaa käyttökelpoisia ennusteita nykytietämyksellä. ...
This project provided an overall picture of the effects of climate change and mitigation on the sustainability and risks of public finances. With the help of literature and macroeconomic general equilibrium models, the project examined global effects as well as direct and spillover effects on Finland. Challenges related to modeling and the best methods of modeling were also evaluated.
The literature shows that there are still rather few studies on the effects of climate change, preparedness, and adaptation on the public economy, and that the information about the subject is uncertain. Research requires a perspicuous view of the effects of climate change as well as mitigation and adaptation policies on the national economy and public finances. The chain of influence is long and uncertain. The best starting point for modeling is the combining of details from different sources at the level of the national economy.
Based on the analysis, the physical consequences of climate change are likely to affect the national economy and public finances of Finland less than in most other countries, especially if the adaptation policy is successful. Country-specific differences emphasize the importance of being prepared for international spillover effects, and on the other hand the fact that Finland’s competitiveness may improve. The spillover effects reduce exports, but increase investments, and their combined effect on production remains small.
Industry-specific and regional differences are also large in Finland. The accelerating growth of negative effects as temperatures rise will increase the already high uncertainty associated with impact calculations.
For the next decade, the green transition will be more important for the Finnish economy than climate change. It is driven not only by Finnish and EU policy measures, but also by global technology and behavioral changes. An active and successful policy promoting the green transition is central to determining the kind of economic effects the public finances will experience during the transition phase.
... Unpredictable and irregular human migration More people than ever before were displaced by conflict, violence, and natural disasters in 2020-2022 [39]. Climate-induced disasters may displace up to 1 billion by 2050, with the poorest disproportionately vulnerable [40]. Mobility can physically create space for conservation or reinvigorate talent pools by diversifying perspectives and experiences, potentially Glossary Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC): term used to acknowledge solidarity among, but also differences in, the injustices faced by various marginalized groups. ...
Community-based conservation can support livelihoods and biodiversity, while reinforcing local and Indigenous values, cultures, and institutions. Its delivery can help address cross-cutting global challenges, such as climate change, conservation, poverty, and food security. Therefore, understanding trends in community-based conservation is pertinent to setting and implementing global goals. We undertook a horizon scan to prioritize 15 emerging threats and opportunities expected to impact the future effectiveness of community-based conservation. Topics relate to global biodiversity policy; human rights; shifting human geography; inclusion, diversity, equity, and access; conservation finance and income; and economic reforms. Our findings offer guidance on strengthening community-based conservation to achieve global environmental and development goals.
... In the debate on the relationship between climate change and migration (Barnett & Adger, 2018;Brzoska & Fröhlich, 2016;Cattaneo et al., 2019;Ferris, 2020;Piguet, 2011), the idea of migration-as-adaptation has developed as a concept to counter the alarmist and apocalyptic narrative of environmental refugees (Black, et al., 2011;Foresight, 2011). Rather than seeing migrants as passive victims of climate change, the notion of migration-as-adaptation emphasizes human agency and highlights the potential positive contribution to adaptive capacity (e.g. through financial and social remittances) and its transformational potential (Barnett & Webber, 2010;Black et al., 2011;Kniveton, et al., 2012;Tacoli, 2009). ...
Migration can strengthen adaptation to climate change. The potential of migration-as-adaptation builds on a world of intensifying global mobility and global connectedness and the increasing possibility of geographically spreading risks. But what if mobility is impeded and connectivity disrupted? And what happens if geographically distant places face risks simultaneously due to the global and systemic character or multiplicity of crises? This paper points to fundamental gaps in research on migration-as-adaptation, which largely neglects the questions of adaptation limits. It argues that an understanding of the limits of migration-as-adaptation needs to address (1) migration as an inherent feature of social systems under stress, (2) the unequal and contested nature of adaptation goals, and (3) immobility, disconnectedness and simultaneous exposure as the core mechanisms that limit the adaptive potential of migration. The paper proposes a novel translocal-mobilities perspective to address the multi-scalar, multi-local, relational and intersectional dynamics of the limits of migration-as-adaptation. It formulates core questions for research on the limits of migration as adaptation. A comprehensive understanding will help the scientific community to build more realistic scenarios on climate change and migration and provide entry points for policies to avoid reaching adaptation limits and to mitigate negative consequences.
... Subsequently, however, they can adopt any stanceif they don't drop the subject altogether. Some oscillate from one to the other or cycle through them, depending on the place and moment.These findings situate the thesis clearly alongside academics and practitioners who have argued that the search for a single, consensual definition of CM is neither necessary nor desirableas Morrissey (2021) has againstFerris (2020). Furthermore, it suggests that careful definitions and complex CM typologies (as produced for example byMcLeman et al., 2021) may provide important, much-needed clarifications in some narrow academic and policy ...
Climate change and migration are two prominent subjects of intense concern occupying public and political debate today. Since the mid-1980s, a growing academic and policy literature has sought to characterise the relationship between them. From the outset, this literature grappled with major conceptual, practical, and political questions. What is the causal relationship linking climate change to migration? Where is climate migration occurring? What responses does it call for, and what principles should guide interventions? These questions remain largely unresolved today. A clear definition of climate migration remains elusive, as do projects to address rather than simply study the phenomenon. In this thesis, I argue that understanding the unresolved ambiguities and uncertainties that characterise climate migration debates requires paying close attention to how knowledge about climate migration is produced and circulated. To this end, I develop an ‘epistemic mobilities’ approach to climate migration, drawing on prior work on ‘travelling ideas’ by historians and sociologists of knowledge (and on cognate concepts in related disciplines). Focusing on the French context, I ask who participates in climate migration debates, how they define and represent it, and the reasoning behind the responses they propose. Methodologically, I use interviews with development practitioners (at the Agence Française de Développement and in non-governmental organisations), knowledge producers (academics and journalists) and politicians. I analyse the documents produced and cited by these stakeholders and conduct a corpus-driven analysis of news media coverage about climate migration. In the analysis, I triangulate these three sources of information and bring them in conversation with the academic literature. I describe an unstable and fragmented stakeholder network marked by persistent tensions. On the one hand, climate migration is seen as a self-evidently real phenomenon requiring a response. On the other, and in a political context marked by widespread hostility towards migrants, stakeholders continue to disagree on the usefulness of causal claims linking climate change to migration. Further, I show that dominant practices used to represent climate migration only serve to reinforce these tensions. French stakeholders never successfully locate climate migration in a “here and now” amenable to intervention. Finally, I also highlight simultaneous and contradictory attempts to politicise and depoliticise responses to climate migration, as evidenced by debates about responsibility and justice. Having underscored the contingent nature of climate migration debates, I conclude the thesis by comparing my French case study with other countries, suggesting that many of the issues faced by French stakeholders are likely to apply in other contexts.
... This approach to climate adaptation was influentially championed in the Foresight Report (Government Office for Science, 2011) and amplified in a high-profile article, "Migration as Adaptation" (Black et al., 2011). Though sounding notes of caution on the risks inherent in climate-related migration, these works positioned migration as a promising climate adaptation strategy, a premise now broadly accepted (Bose, 2015, Ionesco, 2015, Rigaud et al., 2018, Ferris, 2020. ...
This research paper evaluates the role of human (im)mobility in climate adaptation in Bangladesh, a nation experiencing some of the worst effects of climate change. Drawing on over five years of peer-reviewed field research articles in the CliMig bibliographic database, this meta-study considers a plurality of climate-related human (im)mobilities, both forced and voluntary, occurring across a variety of ecological and geographic contexts. In the academic literature, much has been made about the context-specificity of climate change impacts on humans and the multicausal nature of climate-related (im)mobility. While this study’s findings support both positions, they also highlight commonalities that cut across ecological contexts, geographic locations, (im)mobility pathways, and phases of (im)mobility. Socioeconomic factors that predate and often contribute to environmental displacement, migration, and involuntary immobility are found to remain operative throughout the (im)mobility lifecycle in the sample. Vulnerabilities are rarely resolved through (im)mobility. Indeed, because most of the (im)mobilities in the dataset are involuntary and autonomous, with climate-related displaced people receiving little or no external support, (im)mobility often becomes erosive and maladaptive.
This study’s findings raise important questions relevant to the ‘migration as adaptation’ debate. They also highlight the pressing need for development actors, governments, funding agencies, and researchers, including those involved in Bangladesh, to become much more proactive in mainstreaming human (im)mobility into climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies and strategies.
Working Paper #34, published in Researching internal Displacement. Full text @ https://researchinginternaldisplacement.org/working-papers/climate-adaptation-maladaptation-and-immobility-dynamics-and-outcomes-in-bangladesh/
... The impact of disaster and climate change on human displacement or migration has been a matter of concern for the public, policymakers as well as researchers (Ferris, 2020;Maretti et al., 2019). While environmental migration is being studied, there are issues regarding the decision criteria of the migrants, their coping strategies, and the conditions in which they relocate (Wiegel et al., 2019). ...
Frequent floods and river erosions, exacerbated by global climate change, are causing miseries to millions of people worldwide. Thousands of citizens in Bangladesh become homeless every year due to recurrent floods and river erosions. This study reveals an unusual fact that the inhabitants of the Jamuna river floodplain are choosing immobility over migration to safe locations in such situations. The victims of forced migration usually stay within the same zone of calamity. To understand the dynamics, this study focused on determining the factors influencing immobility of the victims in Dewanganj sub-district of Jamalpur district in north-central Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from three distinct locations through oral histories, Focus Group Discussions, Key Informant Interviews, and household questionnaire surveys. Migration has a negative correlation (− 0.29) with flood experiences and a positive correlation (0.63) with erosion experiences of the victims. Thus, the flood-victims tend to be immobile more than the erosion-victims. The tipping-depth for flood is the highest among women in the island char, and the tipping-distance for erosion is the lowest in the attached char. The low living cost, working opportunities for women, and non-government/ government supports are the most important facilitators of immobility, and poverty and uncertainty in adapting to a new place are the major obstructive indicators of mobility. Suggestions are provided as to how immobility can be encouraged in hazard-prone vulnerable settings.
This study addresses the economic, social, and environmental impacts of climate change-induced migration from a multidimensional perspective. It is emphasized that climate-induced migration is increasing due to natural disasters, agricultural yield losses and resource depletion, which has profound social and economic impacts on migrating individuals and communities. The economic impacts of migration include imbalances in employment, infrastructure deficiencies, and contribution to local economies. The study argues that policies should be developed at national and international level to manage climate change-induced migration in a sustainable manner. Proposed solutions include policies such as education programs, infrastructure investments, and increased climate finance. In this context, understanding the relationship between climate change and migration is considered a critical step for the formulation of global strategies.
Denmark’s migration and integration policies have become increasingly restrictive, reaching their peak in 2019 with a “paradigm shift” that moved the focus away from integration toward deterrence and repatriation. This volume explores the consequences of these new paradigms, particularly since 2015 and 2019: What impact has the shift had on asylum seekers and affected residents? Has the restrictive approach led to a reduction in asylum applications and an increase in repatriations? And has it weakened the radical right? A close examination suggests that the new paradigms have led to many negative outcomes, but hardly any measurable success.
Extreme events-induced migration is a growing concern for low- and middle-income countries due to the increased variability in the weather and the rise in the number of disasters associated with climate change. The objective of this article is to examine the interlinkages between weather, disasters, and migration, in India. To examine the bi-directional flow of migrants across Indian states, we estimate gravity models with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method following previous studies’ methodology. We find that agriculture-dependent states and states with low levels of human development are more likely to face out-migration driven by weather variations and disasters. Internal migration is seasonal, temporary and often short distance in nature. We provide statistical evidence that repeated exposure of the vulnerable population to extreme weather and disasters may ultimately lead to more permanent migration. This raises urgent questions concerning the efficacy of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies at the sub-national level.
The significant rise in the number of forcibly displaced people crossing international borders, i.e., refugees, necessitates a thorough examination of the policies implemented by receiving states to manage the arrival of these vulnerable populations. This article reviews the literature on the factors that influence refugee policies, focusing on two dimensions of host state responses: admission and integration. We argue that there may be an inherent tension between refugee admissions and refugee integration policies, as countries attempt to restrict benefits when admission numbers increase. Further, we highlight how refugee policies are influenced by international and domestic constraints and priorities that can at times be conflicting or complementary. The article ultimately advocates for a systematic analysis of the endogenous relationship between refugee policies, public perception of refugees, and migration patterns.
In the frame of the so-called climate-migration-conflict nexus (CMCN), the potential correlation between these three dimensions has been widely explored. Furthermore, the literature calls for efforts to focus on responding to the impacts on society of this nexus through the development of forms of adaptation, mitigation and resilience. In particular, in the context of CMCN, the concept of community resilience has not received sufficient attention. More generally, this concept has not been the subject of homogeneous definitions such that it can be adequately operationalised in the analysis of CMCN. Bearing in mind the findings from CMCN research and referring to the existing literature on community resilience, we intend to make a theoretical contribution to the debate on this latter concept. The results will take the shape of an operational definition of community resilience that can also be applied in the context of CMCN. Consequently, this reflection may also contribute to overcoming the linear cause-effect approach that has been the subject of the majority of studies on CMCN, by taking into consideration a wider broader spectrum of geographical, political, social, cultural, demographic and economic variables.
This article draws attention to the growing importance of climate migration as a subject of national security. The United States of America (USA) was cited as a global leader upon which the international community places its hopes in combating climate change. With this in mind, an analysis was conducted on the institutional and normative actions of the American administration during the presidency of Joe Biden, which were a direct response to the effects of the climate crisis. These actions show the increased involvement of the USA administration in trying to define climate migration as a serious national security problem. In the article, we argue that with the change in the presidency in 2021, there was an increased commitment to climate migrants accompanied by a growing awareness of climate change. In the analysis of the cognitive problem, research methods characteristic of the following sciences were used: political (decision-making method), legal (dogmatic method), and historical sciences. The article is descriptive and explanatory.
The production of knowledge is a mobile process. Efforts to conceptualise the mobilities of knowledge draw on a wide range of metaphors to conceptualise the ways in which knowledge moves and changes as it moves. In this paper, I present the theoretical origins and methodological implications – often tied to specific disciplines – of concepts in use. I distinguish between sedentarist metaphors (construction, transfer) and mobile metaphors (focusing on translation, contagion, friction, and circulation). I show that, although all these metaphors share a common attention to knowledge as mobile, they are neither synonymous nor interchangeable. They each structure how we think about and research epistemic mobilities in their own way. I find that mobile metaphors in particular are most compatible with, and can contribute to, the development of the mobile ontology that characterises the mobilities turn. I illustrate this using a case study of the epistemic mobilities of the idea of climate migration in the French context. From this example, I draw key lessons for studies of epistemic mobilities. I argue for a diverse, nuanced conceptual vocabulary of epistemic mobilities, leading to a nuanced, relational understanding of space, scale, and how to trace the mobilities of knowledge in practice.
This article draws attention to the growing importance of climate migration as a subject of national security. The United States of America (USA) was cited as a global leader upon which the international community places its hopes in combating climate change. With this in mind, an analysis was conducted on the institutional and normative actions of the American administration during the presidency of Joe Biden, which were a direct response to the effects of the climate crisis. These actions show the increased involvement of the USA administration in trying to define climate migration as a serious national security problem. In the article, we argue that with the change in the presidency in 2021, there was an increased commitment to climate migrants accompanied by a growing awareness of climate change. In the analysis of the cognitive problem, research methods characteristic of the following sciences were used: political (decision-making method), legal (dogmatic method), and historical sciences. The article is descriptive and explanatory.
Census data continues to be the primary source of migration data used by policymakers, researchers, and aid organizations to understand the risk of climate-induced mobility, such as sudden displacement due to extreme weather, and long-term rural–urban migration due to persistent drought and flooding. This chapter describes the temporal, spatial, and socio-economic limitations affecting the collection of census data and census-based analysis of climate-induced mobility, using Zambia as a case study to illustrate these challenges. Our findings underline the need for a renewed effort toward international cooperation in standardizing censuses, the allocation of resources to collect and analyze census data, and the adoption of a procedural justice approach to migration and displacement.This chapter will (i) describe the temporal, spatial, and socio-economic limitations affecting the collection of census data and census-based analysis of climate-induced mobility; (ii) examine Zambia as a case study to illustrate these challenges; and (iii) demonstrate the need for a renewed effort toward international cooperation in standardizing censuses, greater allocation of resources to enable more nuanced migration data, and adoption of procedural justice as an approach to improve data collection on migration and displacement. The urgency for better migration data will intensify as climate change displaces and forces migrations in the coming decades, particularly the movement of people to urban areas who lack protection and assistance, and such data will be a necessary prerequisite for the realization of procedural justice in informed and equitable decision-making on climate-induced mobility.KeywordsCensusClimate displacementClimate migrationMethodologyProcedural justiceZambia
This paper examines the impact of disasters and climate change on migration and displacement. It looks at the direct and indirect effects of such events and how they can force people to move away from their homes. It also discusses the growing trend of environmental migration and how this has been exacerbated with managing such population movements. Finally, it outlines the potential solutions to this growing problem and proposes ways to address the humanitarian issues involved. This paper examines the impact of disasters and climate change on migration and displacement. It looks at the various ways in which disasters and climate change can cause displacement, such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, and land degradation. It also looks at the consequences of displacement on both individuals and communities, such as loss of livelihoods, increased vulnerability to exploitation, and displacement to unfamiliar places. Finally, the paper looks at the potential policy responses to mitigate the effects of disasters and climate change on migration and displacement. Keyword :Climate Change, Disaster, Displacement, Migration, Impacts.
This article traces how aspirations management interventions – specifically those that accompanied the United States-Mexico Southern Border Program of 2014 and the Italy-Libya Memorandum of Understanding of 2017 – influence young people’s aspirations and decisions to migrate. The article details three typologies of aspiration management specific to migrant children and youth: child protection interventions, awareness and education campaigns, and development initiatives. Drawing from ethnographic research with unaccompanied migrant youth in Guatemala and Italy, this paper examines how young people understand and consider these programmes when deciding whether and under what conditions to migrate transnationally. Analysing aspiration management programmes alongside young people reveals that these interventions do not deter young people’s migratory decisions, yet do shape who, how and under what conditions they move. A cross-regional case study analysis extends the scholarship on border externalisation as a physical and administrative deterrent to examine how aspiration management has become a critical mode of migration governance of young people.
A large literature is proliferating on capitalism's role in driving climate breakdown. In this literature, capitalism is seen as the endless pursuit of growth, under which nature and its finite resources are exploited for profit. The climate crisis is the result of these processes. However, capitalism alone cannot explain the racial inequities produced by climate disruption, nor can it account for the disproportionately large contributions of Global North countries toward this crisis. In this article, I develop a Du Boisian approach to the climate crisis, showing how his conception of racial and colonial capitalism can develop our understanding of the causes, dimensions, and effects of the climate crisis. I explain how a Du Boisian approach furthers our understanding of racial and global inequalities in the development and impacts of global warming and in the production of fossil fuels, as well as how racism can shape climate inaction. Finally, I name some limitations of Du Bois' theory and elaborate on how a contemporary, decolonizing approach to the climate crisis might address these.
Climate change and environmental hazards affect the entire world, but their interactions with—and consequences on—human migration are unevenly distributed geographically. Research on climate and migration have their own geographies which do not necessarily coincide. This paper critically confronts these two geographies by presenting the first detailed mapping of research in the field of environmentally induced migration. After a brief review of the geography of research on climate change, the paper presents an overview of nearly 50 years of case studies on the basis of CliMig, a bibliographic database of 1193 scientific papers and books on climate/environmental change and migration, among them 463 empirical case studies. We analyze the locations of these case studies, the academic affiliations of their researchers, and the origin of their funding. Mapping the locations of case studies worldwide points toward blind spots in the research and identifies “overstudied” areas. We describe the methodologies used in the studies and present a typology of environmental hazards. Our results show that research on environmental migration is mainly done in countries of the Global South, whereas climate science research in general is focused on countries of the Global North. We contend that the peculiar geography of environmental migration cannot be explained solely by the uneven vulnerability of southern populations to the environment. It must also be understood through the lens of post-colonial and securitization studies as the result of a framing of “environmental refugees” (and refugees in general) as an intrinsically “southern problem” and as a security risk for the North. This paper is an original contribution to the literature on the North-South divide in scientific research and will help to outline future directions of investigation.
Research into environmental migration or, as the authors phrase it, “people movement in the context of environmental change” has focused on understanding the phenomenon itself. However, it is timely to take a less-travelled route and instead study the experts focusing on environmental migration. This brief reports on an online questionnaire of 262 such experts, situating their perceptions of environmental migration within the policy development they help to drive, directly or indirectly. Such a study is important because policy does not develop solely on the basis of objective assessments of the world “out there”. Policy is also influenced by the knowledges, values, beliefs, assumptions, cultural contexts and activities of people involved in its development. At a milestone moment when, after a long period of research and debate, environmental migration is being formalized on policy agendas, one can ask: What are the characteristics of experts? How do they define environmental migration, and what policies do they support? Knowing the answers to these questions can aid policy formation and, importantly, evaluation of policies and programmes addressing environmental migration, as well as self-evaluation and critical reflection among those involved.
This article explores alternative ways that legal and normative frameworks can be used to uphold the rights of those who are displaced internally or across borders in the context of anthropogenic climate change. In particular, we argue that more efforts should be focused on developing soft law rather than trying to fit those displaced because of the effects of climate change into existing legal frame works. The present hard law system governing the movement of people is not equipped to handle the complexities of population movements resulting from the effect so fclimate change, and an adequa te transformation of these of tenstaticlegal regimesis improbable. Bycontrast,softlaw off ersa number of advantages particularlywellsuitedtothe characteristics of those who move because of the effects of climate change and who currently fall into the gaps between protection frameworks. On the downside, soft law norms are not binding and the multiplicityof such initiatives may contribute to a fragmentation of protection systems, resources and attention. Therefore, the present article concludes by arguing for a two-track approach in which both soft and hard law contributes to the protection of those displaced in the context of climate change. On the one hand, in order to address some of the current protection gaps, existing, emergent and new soft law needs to be use dand implemented more thoroughly. Atthe same time, ways forward also include encouraging the more effective and dynamic implementation of hard law, especially through regionalization, complementary protection and the deployment of some features of emerging climate change regimes.
This report is the final publication of the European Union–funded Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP) project. The comparative report builds on desk reviews, household surveys and qualitative interviews conducted in the six project countries (Dominican Republic, Haiti, Kenya, Republic of Mauritius, Papua New Guinea and Viet Nam) to assess the extent to which migration, including displacement and planned relocation, can benefit or undermine adaptation to environmental and climate change. Despite the different social and environmental contexts of the six studied countries, migration serves as an adaptation strategy as it often helps migrant households to diversify income and increase their preparedness for future hazards. Conversely, displacement due to natural hazards tends to pose challenges to adaptation as it increases the vulnerability of those displaced. Finally, planned relocation can both represent a successful adaptation strategy and expose the affected population to new vulnerabilities.
In this regard, the report highlights the importance of sharing examples of good practices for locally driven and rights-based planned relocations. Other important policy implications include the need for the following:
(a) Investing in disaster risk reduction and resilience to address environmental displacement;
(b) Integrating migration into urban planning to reduce challenges for migrants and communities of destination; and
(c) Stressing the importance of paying particular attention to gender issues and the needs of vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and trapped population.
In general, the report demonstrates how data and evidence are fundamental in formulating comprehensive policy responses and facilitating the potential positive effects of environmental migration.
Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.
The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.
The article is available in open access at:
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-016-0077-6
This article looks at how population movements are addressed by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), and highlights some of the potential implications of the SFDRR on disaster risk reduction (DRR) and mobility management work. The article looks at the operational implications of the SFDRR text and covers issues of including migrants in DRR work; informing urban development about current and future mobility trends; managing relocations, evacuations, and displacement to prevent future risks and reduce existing ones; and preparing for and managing disaster-induced population movements to reduce the direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards. Overall, the references to human mobility within the SFDRR show an evolution in the way the issue is considered within global policy dialogues. Both the potential of population movements to produce risk and their role in strengthening the resilience of people and communities are now clearly recognized. This is an evolution of previously prevailing views of mobility as the consequence of disasters or as a driver of risk. While some implications of the DRR-mobility nexus might still be missing from DRR policy, population movements are now recognized as a key global risk dynamic.
This article provides an account of attempts at the international level to develop a normative framework relating to climate change and migration from late 2010 to mid-2013 It traces the "catalytic effect" of paragraph 14(f) of the Cancún Adaptation Framework (adopted in December 2010), through to the concerted, but ultimately unsuccessful effort of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in 2011 to get states to agree to the formulation of a "global guiding framework" on displacement relating to climate change and natural disasters Finally, the article discusses the creation of the state-led Nansen Initiative in late 2012-a tentative "first step" towards international policy-making in this field- and the outcomes of its first sub-regional consultation in the Pacific in May 2013.
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Significance
There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system or unit is likely to expierence harm due to exposure to perturbations or stress. The vulnerability concept emerged from the recognition that a focus on perturbations alone was insufficient for understanding responses of and impacts on the peoples, ecosystems, and places exposed to such perturbations. With vulnerability, it became clear that the ability of a system to attenuate stresses or cope with consequences constituted an important determinant of system response, and ultimately, of system impact. While vulnerability can expand our ability to understand how harm to people and ecosystems emerges and how it can be reduced, to date vulnerability itself has been conceptually hampered. It tends to address single stresses or perturbations on a system, pays inadequate attention to the full range of conditions that may render the system sensitive to perturbations or permit it to cope, accords short shrift to how exposed systems themselves may act to amplify, attenuate, or even create stresses, and does not emphasize the importance of human-environment interactions when defining the system exposed to stresses. An extended framework for vulnerability designed to meet these needs is emerging from a joint research team at Clark University, the Stockholm Environment Institute, Harvard University, and Stanford University, of which several authors on this paper are part. This paper is a first attempt to explore the utility of this extended vulnerability framework, by conducting a preliminary application of it to three global coastal cities with regard to their vulnerabilities to climate hazards. While this new framework needs further refinement and testing, and some methodological obstacles remain, our research suggests there is benefit from using the extended framework to guide assessments of vulnerability. The framework illuminated further system characteristics that, in unique combinations, create place-based vulnerabilities to climate hazards. The framework's complexity, however, required us to conduct outside the framework several analyses comparing bundles of stresses to which the systems were exposed, and system characteristics that give rise to vulnerabilities, to uncover some of the most insightful results.
We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15–40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.
Retreat, or relocating people and unbuilding land in places vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise, remains on the fringes of conversations about climate change adaptation. Yet already people throughout the world are moving away from the water en masse. Many more want to move but lack the resources to do so. Residents working to organize their own retreat are engaged in a struggle for recognition and support from, paradoxically, the very governments and institutions responsible for planning, implementing, and managing retreat once it becomes necessary. In this article, I contrast dominant official representations of retreat as marginal, unpopular, and infeasible with existing cases of collective movement away from rising waters that demonstrate just the opposite. I argue that the word retreat is a valuable and necessary addition to the language of climate change adaptation, serving to distinguish community-organized relocation from forced relocation and climate-induced displacement. Understanding community-organized relocation efforts as forms of retreat unifies this emerging practice with other social movements and political projects that seek more sustainable ways of settling on earth.
International law is a collection of agreements that represent the will and consent of nation-states with respect to the rules that govern their relationships. Treaties are the increasingly predominant form of international law. International law also can be found in international custom. As a system of governance, international law lacks the capacity to grow. The Copenhagen Accord, which is regarded by some as an unmitigated disaster, while some argue that, although the Accord fails to establish the binding carbon emissions targets that were hoped for, it at least creates a new multi-polar order that engages the developed nations whose participation is vital to future progress. Politics and international law seems to have failed to live up to expectations. There are significant commonalities among the chthonic legal traditions that typify the world's many tribal societies. People are global citizens and tribal souls. Therefore, the onus is on the citizens to make up for the failed policies and programs.
Displacement caused by climate change is an area of growing concern. With current rises in sea levels and changes to the global climate, it is an issue of fundamental importance to the future of many parts of the world. This book critically examines whether States have obligations to protect people displaced by climate change under international refugee law, international human rights law, and the international law on statelessness. Drawing on field work undertaken in Bangladesh, India, and the Pacific island States of Kiribati and Tuvalu, the book evaluates whether the phenomenon of 'climate change-induced displacement' is an empirically sound category for academic inquiry. It does so by examining the reasons why people move (or choose not to move); the extent to which climate change, as opposed to underlying socio-economic factors, provides a trigger for such movement; and whether traditional international responses, such as the conclusion of new treaties and the creation of new institutions, are appropriate solutions in this context. In this way, the book queries whether flight from habitat destruction should be viewed as another facet of traditional international protection or as a new challenge requiring more creative legal and policy responses.
Inter-governmental organizations (IGOs) engage with other regimes, particularly in climate change, where an increasing number of IGOs participate in the annual negotiations. None of the three dominant explanations for this behavior—statist, substantive issue linkage, and resource-dependency theory— adequately accounts for variation in the nature of IGO engagement. This article proposes that variation is best captured by organizational type. Normative organizations have a legal mandate to supervise a body of international law, are strongly wedded to their core mandate, and are less likely to engage with new issues. Functional organizations are project-oriented, seek to maximize resources, and are more likely to engage with new issues. A comparative case study of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) illustrates how organization type explains variation in their rhetoric, structure, and policy. UNHCR, a normative organization, was more reluctant than IOM, a functional organization, to engage with climate change displacement and migration debates. This article calls for international relations scholars to investigate how differences in IGO design lead to differences in organizational behavior.
Throughout the world, vast areas of land are becoming unfit for human habitation - unsustainable land-use practices have reduced carrying capacities throughout the Third World and high-risk technologies have sometimes resulted in accidents such as at Chernobyl, leaving whole regions uninhabitable. The growing numbers of people fleeing from environmental decline adds a new dimension to an already controversial global refugee problem, and the author examines this under the following sub-headings: in search of fertile soils; unnatural disasters; home is where the toxics are; and the threat of inundation. -after Author
In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.
This paper addresses the rights of environmentally displaced persons. The motivation is the compelling humanitarian imperative to ensure that those displaced have a minimum of rights, and the focus is on interpretations of existing law that the author considers in line with de Sousa Santos' subaltern cosmopolitanism. The paper draws on both scholarly debates and policy and practitioner discourses. To protect and strengthen the rights of environmentally displaced persons, we should fully exploit existing law by applying a dynamic and context-oriented interpretation of internally displaced person law, refugee law and human rights law. It would be useful to develop a soft law instrument that could provide authoritative guidance in this respect, drawing on the possibilities as well as remedying the limitations of existing law. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Environmental migration, in its different forms, is an aspiration toward stability domains amidst dynamic system change. This paper assesses critical system relationships that couple human and natural systems and change in due course of a regime shift affecting Garífuna villages in Northern Honduras. The specified resilience of these relationships influences the course that migration takes after a flooding event. In impacted villages, migration is a mechanism for demographic fragmentation, ‘downgrades’ livelihood chains, and reinforces a class divide. Villages systems that experience a shift to uninhabitable and unproductive state spaces become shallow stability domains and consequently, perpetual exporters of migrants over an extended period of time. In the end, migration itself is a cascading aspect of a regime shift that is both ecological and social, forced and chosen.
Estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes have been highly instrumental in the ever-increasing attention given to environmental migration in the media. Yet no consensual estimate exists, let alone a commonly agreed methodology. As a result, predictions and estimates have become one of the most contentious issues in the debates on environmental migration. This article seeks to review the key estimates and predictions existing in the literature, as well as the methodologies they are built on, and the problems and caveats they are fraught with. The first part reviews the figures related to current estimates of people displaced by environmental changes, while a second part examines the predictions for future displacements. The next section synthesises the key methodological difficulties and a final section suggests some possible avenues for improvement.
After a short summary of the main current drivers of internal migration in the UK, the paper discusses likely future migration patterns and processes under different social scenarios. It then anticipates the effects of environmental change on these migration flows. The main conclusion is that the impacts will probably be relatively minor; the UK is considered to be extremely well placed to adjust to climate change without a major redistribution of its population. A minor exception to this is that greater river and coastal flooding is likely to render some areas hazardous to settlement and/or very costly to protect. And crucial to successful adaptation is good governance, specifically a strong state that can plan and execute major environmental infrastructures, and can respond quickly and decisively to environmental challenges.
Since the 1980’s there has been an increasing debate throughout the world, that argues whether environmental degradation is a major cause of migration. Scientists claimed there were millions of “environmental refugees” in the late 1980s. The discussion of the links between environmental change and migration have since then been widely debated, especially because of the lack of empirical data on the linkages of the environment and migration. Within the last years the Nobel price winning International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) raised awareness about future impacts of climate change and stated that extreme weather events will occur more frequently and the number of people affected will be highest in the low-lying deltas of Asia and Africa.
Heavy rain in south eastern Africa in early 2008 flooded the low-lying river areas along the Zambezi River in Central Mozambique and displaced up to 80,000 people -- the second such occurrence within two years. This number adds to tens of thousands of people already displaced from floods and cyclones during 2000, 2001 and 2007. Flooding in Mozambique provides a picture of the vulnerability many developing countries experience vis-à-vis extreme climate events. Resettlement has become a policy of last resort for a government trying to ensure safety in a populated area. Mozambique has in recent years become a prominent example of environmentally induced displacement/migration caused by flooding, and the efforts of a government to balance the safety of threatened people with the need to earn livelihoods on floodplains. Hence, this paper aims to understand the impacts of current extreme weather events, especially for a region of the world where the population is surviving via subsistence economy. This paper intends to decrease the lack of data on the linkages between the environment, displacement and migration and identify the major issues in dealing with these impacts.
This paper explores the demographic impacts of the implementation of the Grand Development in West China policies and environmental rehabilitation projects in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It analyses the interaction between the environmental reconstruction and environment-related migration in this region. The intertwined nature of environmental, ethnic, and poverty problems not only bears negatively upon the alleviation of poverty conducing to the accruement of wealth of the poverty-stricken population, but also hinders the rehabilitation of the environment. It brings forth some opinions regarding improving the capacity of regional sustainable development through environmental migration.
There are fast-growing numbers of people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems. In their desperation, these environmental refugees—as they are increasingly coming to be known and as they are termed in this paper—feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have fled their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, having little hope of a foreseeable return.
Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research – on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace.
Claims have been made that global environmental change could drive anywhere from 50 to almost 700 million people to migrate by 2050. These claims belie the complexity of the multi-causal relationship between coupled social–ecological systems and human mobility, yet they have fueled the debate about “environmentally induced migration”. Empirical evidence, notably from a 23 case study scoping study supported by the European Commission, confirms that currently environmental factors are one of many variables driving migration. Fieldwork reveals a multifaceted landscape of patterns and contexts for migration linked to rapid- and slow-onset environmental change today. Migration and displacement are part of a spectrum of possible responses to environmental change. Some forms of environmentally induced migration may be adaptive, while other forms of forced migration and displacement may indicate a failure of the social–ecological system to adapt. This diversity of migration potentials linked to environmental change presents challenges to institutions and policies not designed to cope with the impacts of complex causality, surprises and uncertainty about social–ecological thresholds, and the possibility of environmental and migration patterns recombining into a new patterns. The paper highlights fieldwork on rapid- and slow-onset environmentally induced migration in Mozambique, Vietnam, and Egypt. Current governance frameworks for human mobility are partially equipped to manage new forms of human mobility, but that new complementary modes of governance will be necessary. The paper concludes with challenges for governance of environmentally induced migration under increasing complexity, as well as opportunities to enhance resilience of both migrants and those who remain behind.
Today's enormous development challenges are complicated by the reality of climate change—the two are inextricably linked and together demand immediate attention. Climate change threatens all countries, but particularly developing ones. Understanding what climate change means for development policy is the central aim of the World Development Report 2010. It explores how public policy can change to better help people cope with new or worsened risks, how land and water management must adapt to better protect a threatened natural environment while feeding an expanding and more prosperous population, and how energy systems will need to be transformed. The report is an urgent call for action, both for developing countries who are striving to ensure policies are adapted to the realities and dangers of a hotter planet, and for high-income countries who need to undertake ambitious mitigation while supporting developing countries efforts. A climate-smart world is within reach if we act now to tackle the substantial inertia in the climate, in infrastructure, and in behaviors and institutions; if we act together to reconcile needed growth with prudent and affordable development choices; and if we act differently by investing in the needed energy revolution and taking the steps required to adapt to a rapidly changing planet. In the crowded field of climate change reports, WDR 2010 uniquely: • emphasizes development • takes an integrated look at adaptation and mitigation • highlights opportunities in the changing competitive landscape and how to seize them • proposes policy solutions grounded in analytic work and in the context of the political economy of reform
There is a new phenomenon in the global arena: environmental refugees. These are people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with the associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty. In their desperation, these people feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have fled their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, with little hope of a foreseeable return. In 1995, environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and ethnic troubles). The total number of environmental refugees could well double by the year 2010, and increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on overloaded environments. When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by sea-level rise and coastal flooding, by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, and by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration.
"Using data from a longitudinal panel study conducted in 1982 and 1989 in...Mali, this article demonstrates that the level of migration did not rise during the drought of 1983-1985. However, there was a dramatic increase in the migration of women and children during the severe 1983-1985 drought. Along with this increase in migration by women and children, there was a shift to short-cycle circulation, with 64 percent of the migrants adopting circular patterns. The study describes the characteristics of these migrants and recommends changes to development and migration policies that will facilitate such migrations in subsequent droughts."
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