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CO2 climate innocence in 500 words: paleoclimatological-astrophysical literature synthesis by an impartial geologist

  • Geoclastica Ltd


Has the IPCC made the most expensive ($$trillions) scientific blunder of all time by portraying life-giving CO2 as a 'pollutant'? Yes. This 500-word 5-minute abstract, for a 2021 conference, is the culmination of 5 years of independent literature research of the entire scientific literature relevant to climate change (not just 'climate science', which is fatally biased by its dependence (for funding) on public belief in a 'climate emergency' due to 'man-made' warming). I'm a professional geologist. My hope is that other scientists, upon reading this abstract, will quickly appreciate CO2's obvious innocence, and spread the truth to colleagues. friends and family. For the well-being of society and your children, grandchildren, etc., it's up to us, until now the 'silent majority', to deny the fake 'consensus' (among CLIMATE scientists only), and stop the BBC and other media organisations peddling their ignorance-based misinformation to the trusting public, e.g. … FOR MORE CO2 TRUTHS (including feedbacks) in 5 minutes each, see my … … … Please consider pressing the 'Recommend' button (blue arrow, on the right). The more scientists denouncing the preposterous 'man-made warming' fallacy (a mere belief, like any other religion), the more 'civilians' will take notice and start thinking for themselves at last; maybe even politicians and opinion-moulding journalists.
CO2 climate innocence in 500 words: paleoclimatological-astrophysical
literature synthesis by an impartial geologist
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, UK, 16 Dec 2020 (mod 26 Jan 2021), 2021 conference abstract
Nine published facts prove the coincidence of Modern Warming (since 1815; ref. 1) &
rising industrial carbon dioxide (CO2; since 1850; 2) was accidental, not causal.
1) 20th Century (C) atmospheric CO2 accelerated (2), yet warming was interrupted
by 1945-75 cooling and a 1998-2013 pause (1).
2) After the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum' peak temperature ~5000BC, global cooling
until the 1815 nadir of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1, 3) accompanied slightly rising CO2
("Holocene temperature conundrum"; 4).
3) Confirming solar control, on graphs for the last 2,000 years (y), global temperature
(temp.) & the Sun's magnetic output (SMO) both decreased (with decadal up-down
'sawteeth') for ~1,700y, then both surged into the 20th C (e.g. compare 5-fig7a vs 6-
fig11b). The correlation confirms Svensmark's theory that SMO controls ocean temp.
(hence global air temp.) via cosmic-ray-driven cloudiness (7). Temp. clearly lags by
80-150y (8-Slides 4 & 5), ascribable to ocean circulation (9) & thermal inertia (10).
4) IPCC ignored this time-lag (“solar variations cannot explain global mean surface
warming over the past 25 years, because solar irradiance has declined"; 11), yet in
the same report admitted "The ocean’s huge heat capacity and slow circulation lend
it significant thermal inertia” (12), which causes a lag of "many decades" (10).
5) Global temp. oscillations of longer periodicity (104-105y), such as Quaternary
glacials & interglacials, were driven by Earth's orbital cycles (Milankovitch; 13, 14).
Superimposed on these were briefer ~500 to 2,500y oscillations (15-fig4; e.g. entire
last 2,000y, Fact 3 above), often ascribed to unsteady solar output (16, 17, 18, 19, 20).
6) These Quaternary temp. oscillations preceded changes in CO2 "very closely" (14),
because warming ocean emits CO2 and vice versa (solubility fall/rise). The lag is
<400y (ice cores; 21, 22), in fact just 1y (23). During glacials, Milankovitch ocean
cooling reduced CO2 to plant-starvation level <200ppm (14); it is now 415ppm (2).
7) Similarly for much of the last 550 million years (Phanerozoic time), temp. & CO2
(reaching at least 3,000ppm) correlated well (resolution low; 24).
8) SMO's post-1700 surge (peaked in 1991; 25; 26-fig3) was the largest & highest for
>9,000y (27-fig3a or 28-figS13). SMO grew 130% in the 20th C alone (26-fig3). The
Sun's 1700-1991 surge can explain 100% of the (lagged) 1815-2021 Modern Warming,
because their surge-vs-sawtooth amplitude ratio is the same (8-Slide 4).
9) IPCC says total solar irradiance (TSI) is nearly irrelevant to climate (29; 30-
figSPM.5). TSI indeed varies very little, but SMO, which fluctuates in concert with
TSI, varies proportionally much more (31-fig1). IPCC did not mention SMO (30).
These 9 facts suggest CO2's greenhouse-warming potential, logarithmically falling
"well into the saturation regime" (32), is negated by two feedbacks that climate
models omit (thus run too hot, 33): (i) little known natural cloud feedback (34); & (ii)
increased BVOC aerosol (& effect on clouds) due to faster forest growth by warming
& CO2 fertilization (35, 36, 37). IPCC's influential fig.SPM.5 (30) lists only man-made
aerosol-cloud feedbacks. I predict another 50-70y of ocean-lagged warming by the
Sun's 20th-C surge, offset by CO2's net cooling (aerosol) effect, while CO2 climbs
nearer the optimum for plants (~1000ppm; 38). Then Sun-forced cooling will resume.
1. Berkeley 2021. Global temp. since 1750
2. UCSD 2021. CO2 since 1700 chart (click on '1700-Present')
3. Marcott et al. 2013. A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years
4. Liu et al. 2014. The Holocene temperature conundrum
5. PAGES2k 2017. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
6. Vieira et al. 2011. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene
7. Svensmark 2007. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges
8. Higgs 2021. CO2 greenhouse effect is negated by aerosol-cloud feedback (underestimated by IPCC)
9. Higgs 2017. If the Dark Ages solar peak c.525CE caused a c.5m sea-level rise 50-100y later ("ocean
memory"), the stronger 1958 solar "Grand maximum" presages a >5m rise by 2058:
10. Wigley 2005. The climate change commitment
11. Bindoff et al. 2013. Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional
12. Rhein et al. 2013. Observations: ocean
13. Hays et al. 1976. Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
14. Ellis & Palmer 2016. Modulation of ice ages via precession and dust-albedo feedbacks
15. Siddall et al. 2003. Sea-level fluctuations during the last glacial cycle
16. Dansgaard et al. 1984. North Atlantic climatic oscillations revealed by deep Greenland ice cores
17. van Geel et al. 1999. The role of solar forcing upon climate change
18. Bond et al. 2001. Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene
19. Magny 2004. Holocene climate variability as reflected by mid-European lake-level fluctuations
20. He et al. 2013. Solar influenced late Holocene temperature changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau
21. Pedro et al. 2012. Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during
the last deglaciation
22. Parrenin et al. 2013. Synchronous change of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during the last
deglacial warming
23. Humlum et al. 2013. The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
24. Vinós 2019. Phanerozoic temperature-CO2.pdf
25. Oulo neutron monitor 1965-2021 chart
26. Lockwood et al. 1999. A doubling of the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years
27. Solanki et al. 2004. Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000
28. Steinhilber et al. 2012. 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings
29. Wigley & Raper 1990. Climatic change due to solar irradiance changes
30. IPCC 2013. Summary for policymakers
31. Benevolenskaya & Kostuchenko 2013. The total solar irradiance, UV emission and magnetic flux
during the last solar cycle minimum
32. van Wijngaarden & Happer 2020. Dependence of Earth's thermal radiation on five most abundant
greenhouse gases
33. Monckton et al. 2015. Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model
34. Stephens 2005. Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review
35. Kulmala et al. 2004. A new feedback mechanism linking forests, aerosols, and climate
36. Kulmala et al. 2013. Climate feedbacks linking the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, BVOC
emissions, aerosols and clouds in forest ecosystems
37. Sporre et al. 2019. BVOCaerosolclimate feedbacks investigated using NorESM
38. Zheng et al. 2018. The optimal CO2 concentrations for the growth of three perennial grass species
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Both higher temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations are (separately) expected to increase the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). This has been proposed to initiate negative climate feedback mechanisms through increased formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). More SOA can make the clouds more reflective, which can provide a cooling. Furthermore, the increase in SOA formation has also been proposed to lead to increased aerosol scattering, resulting in an increase in diffuse radiation. This could boost gross primary production (GPP) and further increase BVOC emissions. In this study, we have used the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to investigate both these feedback mechanisms. Three sets of experiments were set up to quantify the feedback with respect to (1) doubling the CO2, (2) increasing temperatures corresponding to a doubling of CO2 and (3) the combined effect of both doubling CO2 and a warmer climate. For each of these experiments, we ran two simulations, with identical setups, except for the BVOC emissions. One simulation was run with interactive BVOC emissions, allowing the BVOC emissions to respond to changes in CO2 and/or climate. In the other simulation, the BVOC emissions were fixed at present-day conditions, essentially turning the feedback off. The comparison of these two simulations enables us to investigate each step along the feedback as well as estimate their overall relevance for the future climate. We find that the BVOC feedback can have a significant impact on the climate. The annual global BVOC emissions are up to 63 % higher when the feedback is turned on compared to when the feedback is turned off, with the largest response when both CO2 and climate are changed. The higher BVOC levels lead to the formation of more SOA mass (max 53 %) and result in more particles through increased new particle formation as well as larger particles through increased condensation. The corresponding changes in the cloud properties lead to a −0.43 W m⁻² stronger net cloud forcing. This effect becomes about 50 % stronger when the model is run with reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions, indicating that the feedback will become even more important as we decrease aerosol and precursor emissions. We do not find a boost in GPP due to increased aerosol scattering on a global scale. Instead, the fate of the GPP seems to be controlled by the BVOC effects on the clouds. However, the higher aerosol scattering associated with the higher BVOC emissions is found to also contribute with a potentially important enhanced negative direct forcing (−0.06 W m⁻²). The global total aerosol forcing associated with the feedback is −0.49 W m⁻², indicating that it has the potential to offset about 13 % of the forcing associated with a doubling of CO2.
Full-text available
An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expressed “substantial confidence” that near-term global warming would occur twice as fast as subsequent observation. Given rising CO2 concentration, few models predicted no warming since 2001. Between the pre-final and published drafts of the Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC cut its near-term warming projection substantially, substituting “expert assessment” for models’ near-term predictions. Yet its long-range predictions remain unaltered. The model indicates that IPCC’s reduction of the feedback sum from 1.9 to 1.5 W m−2 K−1 mandates a reduction from 3.2 to 2.2 K in its central climate-sensitivity estimate; that, since feedbacks are likely to be net-negative, a better estimate is 1.0 K; that there is no unrealized global warming in the pipeline; that global warming this century will be IPCC in its Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports that are highlighted in the present paper is vital. Once those discrepancies are taken into account, the impact of anthropogenic global warming over the next century, and even as far as equilibrium many millennia hence, may be no more than one-third to one-half of IPCC’s current projections.
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Considerable efforts have been made to extend temperature records beyond the instrumental period through proxy reconstructions, in order to further understand the mechanisms of past climate variability. Yet, the global coverage of existing temperature records is still limited, especially for some key regions like the Tibetan Plateau and for earlier times including the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Here we present decadally-resolved, alkenone-based, temperature records from two lakes on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Characterized by marked temperature variability, our records provide evidence that temperatures during the MWP were slightly higher than the modern period in this region. Further, our temperature reconstructions, within age uncertainty, can be well correlated with solar irradiance changes, suggesting a possible link between solar forcing and natural climate variability, at least on the northern Tibetan Plateau.
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Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets: 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.
Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) play a central role in atmospheric chemistry via their high reactivity in the gas phase and via their participation in atmospheric new particle formation and secondary organic aerosol formation. The emissions of BVOC to the atmosphere depend on several climate-related variables, making these compounds part of complex, yet potentially very important, climate feedback mechanisms. Here we illustrated the role of BVOCs in enhancing gross primary production (GPP) and cloud droplet number concentrations. The first of these phenomena forms a positive feedback loop for the terrestrial carbon sink (GPP feedback), whereas the second one forms a negative feedback loop for the ambient temperature increase (temperature feedback).
A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual tempera-ture shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198–1201]. This global cooling is puzzling be-cause it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warm-ing trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models. global temperature | Holocene temperature | model-data inconsistency
This is a composite total solar irradiance (TSI) time series for 9495BC to 2007AD constructed as described in Sect. 3.3 of the paper. Since the TSI is the main external heat input into the Earth's climate system, a consistent record covering as long period as possible is needed for climate models. This was our main motivation for constructing this composite TSI time series. In order to produce a representative time series, we divided the Holocene into four periods according to the available data for each period. Table 4 (see below) summarizes the periods considered and the models available for each period. After the end of the Maunder Minimum we compute daily values, while prior to the end of the Maunder Minimum we compute 10-year averages. For the period for which both solar disk magnetograms and continuum images are available (period 1) we employ the SATIRE-S reconstruction (Krivova et al. 2003A&A...399L...1K; Wenzler et al. 2006A&A...460..583W). SATIRE-T (Krivova et al. 2010JGRA..11512112K) reconstruction is used from the beginning of the Maunder Minimum (approximately 1640AD) to 1977AD. Prior to 1640AD reconstructions are based on cosmogenic isotopes (this paper). Different models of the Earth's geomagnetic field are available before and after approximately 5000BC. Therefore we treat periods 3 and 4 (before and after 5000BC) separately. Further details can be found in the paper. We emphasize that the reconstructions based on different proxies have different time resolutions. (1 data file).
The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field,. Magnetic reconnection-the merging of oppositely directed magnetic fields-between the interplanetary field and the Earth's magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the connections are still not well understood,. Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate. Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964: surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of 2.3. This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global environment.