CO2 climate innocence in 500 words: paleoclimatological-astrophysical
literature synthesis by an impartial geologist
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, UK, 16 Dec 2020 (mod 26 Jan 2021), 2021 conference abstract
Nine published facts prove the coincidence of Modern Warming (since 1815; ref. 1) &
rising industrial carbon dioxide (CO2; since 1850; 2) was accidental, not causal.
1) 20th Century (C) atmospheric CO2 accelerated (2), yet warming was interrupted
by 1945-75 cooling and a 1998-2013 pause (1).
2) After the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum' peak temperature ~5000BC, global cooling
until the 1815 nadir of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1, 3) accompanied slightly rising CO2
("Holocene temperature conundrum"; 4).
3) Confirming solar control, on graphs for the last 2,000 years (y), global temperature
(temp.) & the Sun's magnetic output (SMO) both decreased (with decadal up-down
'sawteeth') for ~1,700y, then both surged into the 20th C (e.g. compare 5-fig7a vs 6-
fig11b). The correlation confirms Svensmark's theory that SMO controls ocean temp.
(hence global air temp.) via cosmic-ray-driven cloudiness (7). Temp. clearly lags by
80-150y (8-Slides 4 & 5), ascribable to ocean circulation (9) & thermal inertia (10).
4) IPCC ignored this time-lag (“solar variations cannot explain global mean surface
warming over the past 25 years, because solar irradiance has declined"; 11), yet in
the same report admitted "The ocean’s huge heat capacity and slow circulation lend
it significant thermal inertia” (12), which causes a lag of "many decades" (10).
5) Global temp. oscillations of longer periodicity (104-105y), such as Quaternary
glacials & interglacials, were driven by Earth's orbital cycles (Milankovitch; 13, 14).
Superimposed on these were briefer ~500 to 2,500y oscillations (15-fig4; e.g. entire
last 2,000y, Fact 3 above), often ascribed to unsteady solar output (16, 17, 18, 19, 20).
6) These Quaternary temp. oscillations preceded changes in CO2 "very closely" (14),
because warming ocean emits CO2 and vice versa (solubility fall/rise). The lag is
<400y (ice cores; 21, 22), in fact just 1y (23). During glacials, Milankovitch ocean
cooling reduced CO2 to plant-starvation level <200ppm (14); it is now 415ppm (2).
7) Similarly for much of the last 550 million years (Phanerozoic time), temp. & CO2
(reaching at least 3,000ppm) correlated well (resolution low; 24).
8) SMO's post-1700 surge (peaked in 1991; 25; 26-fig3) was the largest & highest for
>9,000y (27-fig3a or 28-figS13). SMO grew 130% in the 20th C alone (26-fig3). The
Sun's 1700-1991 surge can explain 100% of the (lagged) 1815-2021 Modern Warming,
because their surge-vs-sawtooth amplitude ratio is the same (8-Slide 4).
9) IPCC says total solar irradiance (TSI) is nearly irrelevant to climate (29; 30-
figSPM.5). TSI indeed varies very little, but SMO, which fluctuates in concert with
TSI, varies proportionally much more (31-fig1). IPCC did not mention SMO (30).
These 9 facts suggest CO2's greenhouse-warming potential, logarithmically falling
"well into the saturation regime" (32), is negated by two feedbacks that climate
models omit (thus run too hot, 33): (i) little known natural cloud feedback (34); & (ii)
increased BVOC aerosol (& effect on clouds) due to faster forest growth by warming
& CO2 fertilization (35, 36, 37). IPCC's influential fig.SPM.5 (30) lists only man-made
aerosol-cloud feedbacks. I predict another 50-70y of ocean-lagged warming by the
Sun's 20th-C surge, offset by CO2's net cooling (aerosol) effect, while CO2 climbs
nearer the optimum for plants (~1000ppm; 38). Then Sun-forced cooling will resume.
1. Berkeley 2021. Global temp. since 1750
2. UCSD 2021. CO2 since 1700 chart (click on '1700-Present')
3. Marcott et al. 2013. A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years
4. Liu et al. 2014. The Holocene temperature conundrum
5. PAGES2k 2017. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
6. Vieira et al. 2011. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene
7. Svensmark 2007. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges
8. Higgs 2021. CO2 greenhouse effect is negated by aerosol-cloud feedback (underestimated by IPCC)
9. Higgs 2017. If the Dark Ages solar peak c.525CE caused a c.5m sea-level rise 50-100y later ("ocean
memory"), the stronger 1958 solar "Grand maximum" presages a >5m rise by 2058:
10. Wigley 2005. The climate change commitment
11. Bindoff et al. 2013. Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional
12. Rhein et al. 2013. Observations: ocean
13. Hays et al. 1976. Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
14. Ellis & Palmer 2016. Modulation of ice ages via precession and dust-albedo feedbacks
15. Siddall et al. 2003. Sea-level fluctuations during the last glacial cycle
16. Dansgaard et al. 1984. North Atlantic climatic oscillations revealed by deep Greenland ice cores
17. van Geel et al. 1999. The role of solar forcing upon climate change
18. Bond et al. 2001. Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene
19. Magny 2004. Holocene climate variability as reflected by mid-European lake-level fluctuations
20. He et al. 2013. Solar influenced late Holocene temperature changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau
21. Pedro et al. 2012. Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during
the last deglaciation https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/8/1213/2012/
22. Parrenin et al. 2013. Synchronous change of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during the last
deglacial warming https://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6123/1060.abstract
23. Humlum et al. 2013. The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
24. Vinós 2019. Phanerozoic temperature-CO2.pdf
25. Oulo neutron monitor 1965-2021 chart
26. Lockwood et al. 1999. A doubling of the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years
27. Solanki et al. 2004. Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000
28. Steinhilber et al. 2012. 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings
29. Wigley & Raper 1990. Climatic change due to solar irradiance changes
30. IPCC 2013. Summary for policymakers
31. Benevolenskaya & Kostuchenko 2013. The total solar irradiance, UV emission and magnetic flux
during the last solar cycle minimum https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jas/2013/368380/
32. van Wijngaarden & Happer 2020. Dependence of Earth's thermal radiation on five most abundant
greenhouse gases https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098
33. Monckton et al. 2015. Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model
34. Stephens 2005. Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review
35. Kulmala et al. 2004. A new feedback mechanism linking forests, aerosols, and climate
36. Kulmala et al. 2013. Climate feedbacks linking the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, BVOC
emissions, aerosols and clouds in forest ecosystems
37. Sporre et al. 2019. BVOC–aerosol–climate feedbacks investigated using NorESM
38. Zheng et al. 2018. The optimal CO2 concentrations for the growth of three perennial grass species