Certain aspects of African countries food security provision

Abstract

Analysis of the African countries food security demonstrate significant aggravation of the situation in several countries to the south of the Sahara. Conflicts, social inequality, high level of poverty against the background of a rapid population growth, unfavorable climatic conditions as well as ineffective government policy in the field of providing the population with foodstuff were determined as the main causes of population undernourishment. In Africa, due to low incomes of the population, most of the food ration consists of cereals and a small part of meat, fish and dairy products. It was revealed that African countries are the net importers of foodstuff, with cereals accounting for the largest part of imports. It was noted that international experts forecast foodstuff and fodder demand increase in these countries. It was defined the African region can potentially become one of the promising sales markets for Russian producers of grain crops and agricultural products. The results of the study are aimed at overcoming the problem of starvation, economic backwardness and improving the living standards of the African continent population, as well as developing an economic toolkit for the interaction of the Russian Federation with African countries.

Full text

Certain aspects of African countries food
security provision
Lyudmila Kopteva1,*, Lyudmila Shabalina2 and Artur Budagov1
1Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation, 67, Bolshaya Morskaia str., 190000,
Saint Petersburg, Russia
2Donetsk National Technical University, 58, Artema str., 83000, Donetsk, Ukraine
Abstract. Analysis of the African countries food security demonstrate
significant aggravation of the situation in several countries to the south of
the Sahara. Conflicts, social inequality, high level of poverty against the
background of a rapid population growth, unfavorable climatic conditions
as well as ineffective government policy in the field of providing the
population with foodstuff were determined as the main causes of
population undernourishment. In Africa, due to low incomes of the
population, most of the food ration consists of cereals and a small part of
meat, fish and dairy products. It was revealed that African countries are the
net importers of foodstuff, with cereals accounting for the largest part of
imports. It was noted that international experts forecast foodstuff and
fodder demand increase in these countries. It was defined the African
region can potentially become one of the promising sales markets for
Russian producers of grain crops and agricultural products. The results of
the study are aimed at overcoming the problem of starvation, economic
backwardness and improving the living standards of the African continent
population, as well as developing an economic toolkit for the interaction of
the Russian Federation with African countries.
1 Introduction
The food problem in many countries of the world persists, and in some of them it has
seriously aggravated, which is associated with wars and conflicts, social inequality, as well
as ineffective government policy in the field of providing the population with foodstuff. At
the same time, it should be noted that the quantity of the world population suffering from
undernourishment is increasing. So, in 2018, the number of people suffering from
starvation made up 820 million people, which is 5.5% more than in 2015 [1]. The food
security situation has negatively intensified in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. At
the same time, population growth in Africa is projected up to 2.5 billion people by 2050,
which may lead to an increase of starvation [2]. According to FAO experts, in Africa as a
whole, insufficient work has been carried out to meet the hunger targets set by the world
community. This is especially evident in the sub-Saharan region, where the level of the
population undernourishment increased from 21.7% to 23.2% in 2018 compared with 2010
* Corresponding author: lusis63@mail.ru
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© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
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[2]. In this regard, it is an increasing demand to analyze the food security of African
countries, which will make it possible to determine promising directions for overcoming
starvation, economic backwardness and improve the living standards of the population in
this region.
2 Background
The issues of regulation and control of solving the world food security problems are
handled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),
International Food Policy Research Institute, International Fund for Agricultural
Development, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Trends and specifics
of starvation problem as well as issues of ensuring global food security were raised in the
works of E.D. Kopnov, L.A. Rodionov, O.I. Botkin, L.G. Kotov, O.N.Safonov, V.A.
Kovalenko, Niyazi A. and others. The analysis of the current state and prospects of foreign
trade relations development between the Russian Federation and Africa was carried out by
Zhurba M.V., Kemene S.M., Sapuntsev A.L., Korendyasov E.N., Avetisyan E.G. etc. Such
economists as D. Bloom, D. Canning, K. Chan, M.А. Bulanakova, E.N. Novoselova, A.V.
Lyadova have consecutively undertaken deep research on food security in Africa.
3 Results and discussion
The countries of the African continent are the least developed ones in the world, having one
of the lowest levels of GDP per capita. So, for example, in South Sudan it makes 303 US
dollars, which is the lowest rate among 186 countries in the world in 2018.The volume of
GDP in Africa is 7.1 times lower than in developing countries in Asia. It should be noted
the population density in Africa is 4 times higher, and the territory is 1.2 times less. The
largest regions of the continent are North and West Africa, which account for 31.8% and
27%, of the region's total real GDP respectively. The largest countries in the region are
Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt [3].
Among the eighty-six countries in the world that are identified as low-income and food-
insecure, forty-three are located in Africa. Despite the fact the African continent occupies
20.4% of the world total land area and has significant reserves of natural resources, about
256.1 million people in African countries were determined as suffering from
undernourishment in 2018 (Table 1). According to experts, the projected number of
starving and undernourished Africans will increase to 300 million in 2020 [3].
Table 1. The rate of undernourishment in the world and in Africa (Based on FAO data [2]).
Territory
Indicator value
% of population
mln people
2010
2015
2018
2010
2015
2018
World
11.8
10.6
10.9
822.3
785.4
820.8
Africa. including:
19.1
18.6
20.4
199.8
217.9
256.5
North Africa
5
8
8.5
8.5
15.5
20
Countries in sub-Saharan
Africa. including:
21
.7
21.1
23
.2
180.6
202
.4
236.5
Central Africa
27.8
24.1
26.1
118.6
119.3
42.7
East Africa
31.3
30.5
31.4
36.5
37.9
132.2
South Africa
7.2
7.9
8.4
4.2
5
5.4
West Africa
10.4
11.4
15.1
31.9
40.3
56.1
It should be noted that even resource-rich countries in Africa are characterized by the
high rates of undernourishment. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo is
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recognized as one of the poorest countries in the world, with a population of 77 million,
most of whom live on less than US $ 1.25 per day [4]. As a result, cereal crops are the
staple foodstuffs for citizens due to their low income level, though African countries
themselves are unable to provide sufficient quantities of mentioned crops as their
agricultural development is at low level.
One of the factors affecting the food security of the region is population increase, which
limits the growth of per capita incomes, causing poverty and starvation. In 2018 the
population of Africa increased in 5.4 times compared to 1950, amounting to 1.2 billion
people. It should be noted 11% decrease of the birth rate in African countries in 2018,
counting 11.6 people, which is 64% higher compared to Europe. At the same time, life
expectancy increased to 61.86 years, which, for example, is 25.44 years lower compared to
Japan. One of the factors affecting this indicator is the quality and structure of food. In
Japan, the diet is based on meat, fish, rice, soy, fruits and vegetables. The average annual
consumption of fish and meat per capita in this country is 68 kg and 30 kg respectively,
while in African countries the consumption of meat remains the lowest in the world,
namely 14.2 kg [4].
In Africa, 70% of the food intake is grain crops, with a small share of meat, fish, dairy
products, etc. (fig. 1). Despite the fact that the main products consumed are cereals, in the
economic structure of African countries the service sector occupies the largest share, and
agriculture accounts for 17.31%. In Africa, there are regional differences in food
consumption composition. Thus, the largest amount of meat products is consumed in South
Africa, which has grown by 7.5% over the past 7 years. The smallest number of calories
consumed by the population is in Central Africa, which is heavily influenced by Angola
and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, dependent on crude oil export. In South and
West Africa, calorie consumption is almost 40% higher than in Central and East Africa,
which is associated with the economic development of Botswana, Egypt, Morocco, South
Africa and others. According to FAO forecasts, food consumption will increase by 5% in
this region by 2025, and the bulk of the growth will come from the consumption of
vegetable oil and sugar [3].
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2013-15 2025 2013-15 2025 2013-15 2025 2013-15 2025
Central Africa East Africa South Africa West Africa
Others Dairy products Maize Rice Whe at Root crops Meat and Fish
Fig. 1. Calorie intake per person in Africa, by country group (Based on the Global Food Security
Index data [5]).
High level of undernourishment in Africa is caused by the combination of unfavorable
climatic conditions and conflicts, often occurring simultaneously and from which a number
of countries in the region are currently suffering. For example, 23 countries of the world
faced a food crisis due to climatic and weather conditions in 2017. Moreover, two thirds of
these countries are in Africa. Compared to 2012, the quantity of undernourished in
countries vulnerable to drought increased by 45.6% (Table 2).
Table 2. Spread of undernourishment in arid and conflict-ridden African countries, mln people
(Based on FAO data [2]).
Year
Quantity of
undernourished
African countries
involved in conflicts
Arid African countries
2010
199.8
95.6
74.4
2011
201.1
97.5
75.2
2012
203.2
99.6
76.9
2013
205.3
102.1
80.1
2014
210.2
105.4
85.6
2015
217.9
108.2
90.2
2016
234.6
116.8
99.8
2017
248.6
126.9
107.7
2018
256.1
131.6
112
In 2018, compared to 2015, the number of people undernourished increased by 34.5
million, 32.6 million of them live in sub-Saharan Africa and 1.9 million live in North
Africa [2]. It should be noted that the prevalence of undernutrition in these countries is
twice higher in comparison to that in conflict-affected countries (Table 2). For all countries
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in sub-Saharan Africa, securing food availability while tackling climate change and
environmental degradation are major challenges, as lack of foodstuff itself can trigger new
conflict.
Conflicts often become one of the problems that lead to undernutrition and starvation.
For instance, as a result of the inter-ethnic conflict in Darfur (Sudan) in 2003, the food
supply of the population was worsened significantly, that led to death from starvation and
diseases of more than 180 thousand people in 2004-2005 [3]. To resolute the crisis in the
region, under the auspices of the UNO in cooperation with the African Union a special
program was performed in 2007, thanks to which the country overcame humanitarian
catastrophe.
It should be noted that Africa is a net importer of food. In 2018, the amount of imported
goods in the region made up totally $ 573.4 billion, export accounted to $ 497.2 billion.
Thus, the maximum level of product import was fulfilled in North Africa and made up $
222.7 billion, and in West Africa import amounted to 114,1 $ billion, the minimum level
was registered at the Central Africa and made up $ 36.3 billion. At the same time, about
40% of all imported goods was initiated from three countries, they are South Africa, Egypt
and Morocco. In the regional context, the highest value of the export indicator was in North
and South Africa, and the lowest was in East Africa. The main exporting countries were
South Africa, Nigeria and Angola, which accounted for about 30% of all African export
(Table 3). Over the past five years import of the consumer goods to South Africa have
grown by 70% and now accounts for over 40% of the region's total import.
Table 3. The largest African importing / exporting countries, US $ billion (Based on the Roscongress
Foundation data [6]).
№
Country
Year
Country's share in
total African import
/ export in 2018
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Import
1
South Africa
98.9
84.3
85
93.3
93.4
16.3%
2
Egypt
70.5
57.2
50.1
80.8
81
14.1%
3
Morocco
46.2
32.7
33.2
51.2
51.3
8.9%
4
Algeria
58.6
50.7
44.6
48.6
48.8
8.5%
5
Nigeria
61.6
52.3
36.4
36.2
36.5
6.4%
6
Tunisia
23.4
19.1
17.8
20.9
20.9
3.6%
7
Kenya
17.6
15.6
16.3
17.4
17.4
3%
8
Angola
29.2
21.2
19.7
16.3
16.4
2.9%
9
Libya
20.4
11.2
9.6
12.4
12.8
2.2%
10
Ghana
14.6
13.5
13.7
12.0
11.9
2.1%
Export
1
South Africa
92.5
81.6
83.2
94.3
94.4
19%
2
Nigeria
82.6
45.9
33.3
52.6
52.9
10.6%
3
Angola
60
35.6
30
41.8
42
8.5%
4
Algeria
63.2
36
26.9
41.4
41.6
8.4%
5
Libya
16.5
10.9
10.7
30.1
30.7
6.2%
6
Egypt
26.2
19
14.7
29.3
29.4
5.9%
7
Morocco
23.7
18.5
18.7
29.2
29.3
5.9%
8
Ghana
13.2
10.4
10.3
16.9
17.1
3.4%
9
Tunisia
16.8
14.1
12.9
15.9
16
3.2%
10
Cote d'Ivoire
12.8
12
11.7
11.9
11.8
2.4%
According to the FAO experts forecast, in sub-Saharan Africa an increased demand for
import of cereals, namely wheat and rice, is expected by 2028. Demand for foodstuffs and
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feedstuffs is also forecasted to increase by an average 14 million tons of each. As cereals
consumption in developed countries will remain stable due to slower growth in feed
demand, African countries are expected to account for a significant share of additional
consumption (Figure 2).
0100200
Developed 2016-18
2028
Developing 2016-18
2028
Developed 2016-18
2028
Developing 2016-18
2028
Developed 2016-18
2028
Developing 2016-18
2028
WheatMaizeOther crops
Fig. 2. Consumption of cereals in developed and developing countries (Based on Global Food
Security Index data [5]).
The food market of African countries is becoming one of the most promising areas for
the Russian Federation. Recently, the Russian Federation has become one of the main trade
partners for this region. In 2015 - 2017 there was a significant increase in import, which is
associated with the expansion of the demand for food, but the increase in calorie
consumption per capita in the region, as shown by the analysis, remains insignificant. In
2018, the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and African countries reached
20.4 billion US dollars, while there was a decrease in the growth rates of import and export,
which amounted to 18.1% and 11.1%, respectively (Fig. 3), the reason for which is the
aggravation of military conflicts on the continent.
Fig. 3. Dynamics of export and import to African countries from the Russian Federation (Based on
Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation data [7]).
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The main commodity structure items of African countries' exports to the Russian
Federation are vegetables and fruits, nuts, cocoa, root crops, tobacco and inorganic
chemicals, as well as ores. These groups account for about 69% of all African countries'
export to the Russian Federation. In addition, the export of precious metals and stones, as
well as copper, increased by 35 and 8 times respectively in 2018 [6]. Currently about 75%
of all Russian exports to African countries fall on four commodity groups: grain, fuel,
ferrous metals and different types of floating vessels, most of which are supplied to Egypt
and Algeria [6]. Since the demand for these groups of goods is increasing due to the desire
of African countries to overcome the problem of undernutrition and starvation, the supply
of these goods is having good prospects for the Russian Federation.
4 Conclusion
Based on analysis of the food supply of African countries, it is determined the situation has
aggravated considerably in a number of countries in sub-Saharan region. It was revealed,
about 256 million people suffer from undernourishment in Africa, and the main causes of
undernutrition are conflicts, unfavorable climatic conditions, high level of poverty and
rapid population growth. Africa is proved to be the net importer of the foods, an increase in
demand for cereals and agricultural products in this region is expected to rise. The analysis
of foreign trade relations between Africa and the Russian Federation reveals African
countries to be promising sales market for the Russian producers of grain and agricultural
products.
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