The Rational Climate e-Book (2nd Edition)
Abstract
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PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND BEWARE
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Beware that my former website patricepoyet.org is no longer mine and has been hacked by people who purchased the domain name. My book was edited to remove links to this website where 17k downloads were made.
Some spelling mistakes were removed in version 2.30 on Dec. 1, 2024. Strangely, Figure 47 that was lost generating 2.30 was added again in v 2.31 on Jan. 6, 2025.
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You can also get my complete book from here:
https://www.academia.edu/44710422/The_Rational_Climate_e_Book_2nd_Edition
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Poyet, P., 2022. The Rational Climate e-Book: Cooler is Riskier. The Extended 2nd Edition, October 7th, 174 Figures, 261 Equations, 2432 references, 655 pp., e-ISBN 978-99957-1-929-6
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This book addresses all aspects of climate and paleo-climates, from atmospheric physics, to astronomical influences and geological and geochemical drivers. It covers the computer models claiming to simulate the climate and the policies that are projected from them.
You can get the pdf for free here.
If you like, recommend and make it known to others.
Share as much as you can.
Best.
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I have been interested in Planetology for 50 years and observed all the planets as a child with a small telescope. I was fascinated by these distant worlds about which not so much was known in the early seventies. Having access later to the great refractor of the Nice observatory (76 cm) gave me a better perspective on these magnificent celestial bodies and as any astronomer knows, clear sky nights are much colder than those that are overcast. So, it has long seemed logical to me to invoke greenhouse gases to explain that the temperature was enhanced by them. Of course, the warmer nights are of little consolation to the astronomer if they are cloudy, but as soon as the sky clears the temperature drops, you'd better have an appropriate equipment as telescopes are located on top of mountains to have dry air and no light pollution. So, I was not particularly skeptic about the global warming narrative, as warming since the end of the Little Ice Age was obvious, but becoming later a geochemist and a computer scientist I knew two things : the Earth-system is huge and extraordinarily complex and software can deliver whatever results one has programmed them for. Then, later being interested ever more into what drives the climate on planets, I became more suspicious about the way some conjectures were awkwardly imposed as supposedly evidences. The more we knew, the more the discrepancies between the packaged discourse and the scientific observations grew.The greenhouse effect on Venus did not match the observations for a number of reasons, Mars was desperately cold despite its 96.5% of CO2 in its atmosphere and the more one was observing how IPCC was being operated, the more suspicious any experienced scientist had to become. When François Hollande (a former French President) stated at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, on September 28, 2015 that tsunamis and earthquakes will be the result of uncontrolled anthropogenic global warming, that was simply too delirious to hear for a geologist. Learning from a politician that plate tectonics were now going to be driven by the action of a trace gas, because a 100 ppm increase of it had been recorded, was such a flabbergasting statement that I was not suspicious any longer but resentful of the way science was tortured to match a political agenda. I had been accumulating and reading thousands of papers on that subject over the years, but Covid time was the trigger, it was long overdue to put back science in the first place, to remind in Chapter 1 what science teaches us, from Physics to Planetology, Geology etc, to evaluate in Chapter 2 the computer models that are presented as the only evidence of a human fingerprint on the current modern warming and to address in Chapter 3 the net-zero dystopian world that is going to be implemented if the public does not raise itself against the green tyranny. Chapter 4 summarizes and explains why a warmer world is better anyway and addresses the question of whether the current climate optimum has anything special. You won't be disappointed, everything is revisited from scratch.
Supplementary resource (1)
... The established approach is reflected in the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), among which here we refer to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [31] and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) [32]. Comprehensive critiques on the established approach, accompanied by alternative approaches and quantifications, have been provided by Salby [36], Humlum et al. [37], Harde [38,39], Berry [30], Poyet [40], and Stallinga [41]. ...
... More recently, several studies have corroborated Starr's [69] results by independent analyses. These have been produced by Berry [30,70,71]; Harde, either alone [39] or in collaboration with Salby [72][73][74]; Poyet [40], and Stallinga [41]. On the other hand, Andrews [75] disputed these studies, claiming that they are mistaken and that his analysis "confirms the prediction of a conventional model of the carbon cycle," but without providing any calculation to show that. ...
Reservoir routing has been a routine procedure in hydrology, hydraulics and water management. It is typically based on the mass balance (continuity equation) and a conceptual equation relating storage and outflow. If the latter is linear, then there exists an analytical solution of the resulting differential equation, which can directly be utilized to find the outflow from known inflow and to obtain macroscopic characteristics of the process, such as response and residence times, and their distribution functions. Here we refine the reservoir routing framework and extend it to find approximate solutions for nonlinear cases. The proposed framework can also be useful for climatic tasks, such as describing the mass balance of atmospheric carbon dioxide and determining characteristic residence times, which have been an issue of controversy. Application of the theoretical framework results in excellent agreement with real-world data. In this manner, we easily quantify the atmospheric carbon exchanges and obtain reliable and intuitive results, without the need to resort to complex climate models. The mean residence time of atmospheric carbon dioxide turns out to be about four years, and the response time is smaller than that, thus opposing the much longer mainstream estimates.
... The established ap-433 proach is reflected in the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 434 Change (IPCC), among which here we refer to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [26] and 435 the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) [27]. Comprehensive critiques on the established ap-436 proach, accompanied with alternative approaches and quantifications, have been pro-437 vided by Salby [31], Humlum et al. [32], Harde [33,34], Berry [25], Poyet [35] and Stallinga 438 [36]. 439 The approach presented here, with its simplicity and transparency, can shed light on 440 the unclear issues and highlight the problems in the established approach. ...
... the parameters for ≥ 1, we match at = 0, (a) the true values of ( ) = 272 ( ( )) 1−1⁄ and A ( ), (b) their derivatives, found by approximating ( ) from Equation 273(11), and (c) at = ∞, the true values of ( ) and A ( ).If < 1, instead of the value at = ∞ we use that at = 1/(1 − ), which is the upper 275 bound of the variable, as in this case it is bounded from above. The last of Equations(35) ...
Reservoir routing has been a routine procedure in hydrology, hydraulics and water management. It is typically based on the mass balance (continuity equation) and a conceptual equation relating storage and outflow. If the latter is linear, then there exists an analytical solution of the resulting differential equation, which can directly be utilized to find the outflow from known inflow, and to obtain macroscopic characteristics of the process, such as response and residence times, and their distribution functions. Here we streamline the reservoir routing framework and extend it to find approximate solutions for nonlinear cases. The proposed framework can also be useful for climatic tasks, such as describing the mass balance of atmospheric carbon dioxide and determining characteristic residence times, which have been an issue of controversy. Application of the theoretical framework results in excellent agreement with real-world data. In this manner, we easily quantify the atmospheric carbon exchanges, and obtain reliable and intuitive results, without the need to resort to complex climate models. The mean residence time of atmospheric carbon dioxide turns out to be no more than four years and the response time is smaller than that, thus opposing the much longer mainstream estimates.
... Several publications suggesting that most of the sources of the atmospheric CO2 are unrelated to human activity, Harde (2019) [62]; Berry (2021) [63]. Recent estimate of the man-made contribution to the observed ~35 % changes is only about 6 %, Poyet (2022) [24]. From our point of view this problem is irrelevant, and in fact we try to focus on the real problem of establishing the theoretical relationships between the atmospheric GHG content and the surface radiative temperature. ...
Greenhouse effect and climate change
... Several publications suggesting that most of the sources of the atmospheric CO2 are unrelated to human activity, Harde (2019) [62]; Berry (2021) [63]. Recent estimate of the man-made contribution to the observed ~35 % changes is only about 6 %, Poyet (2022) [24]. From our point of view this problem is irrelevant, and in fact we try to focus on the real problem of establishing the theoretical relationships between the atmospheric GHG content and the surface radiative temperature. ...
In the last decade fundamental theoretical equations were developed for describing and understanding the global average radiative equilibrium state of the Earth-atmosphere system. It is shown that using the well-established laws of radiation physics the key climate parameters of the planet can be deduced theoretically, from purely astrophysical considerations and some plausible assumptions on the material composition of the planetary surface and the structure of the atmosphere. It is also shown, that the Earth-atmosphere system is in radiative equilibrium with a theoretical solar constant, and all global mean flux density components satisfy the theoretical expectations. The greenhouse effect predicted by the Arrhenius greenhouse theory is inconsistent with the existence of this radiative equilibrium. Hence, the CO2 greenhouse effect as used in the current global warming hypothesis is impossible. The greenhouse effect itself and the CO2 greenhouse effect based global warming hypothesis is a politically motivated dangerous artifact without any theoretical or empirical footing. Planet Earth obeys the most fundamental laws of radiation physics .
Bu çalışma kentlerin sürdürülebilirlik sorunlarını ele alırken, yapay zekâ ve yeşil ulaşım sistemlerinin entegrasyonunun bu sorunlara nasıl çözüm sunduğunu araştırmaktadır. Ulaşımın enerji tüketimi ve karbon emisyonlarına olan etkisi göz önüne alındığında, yeşil ulaşım kavramı, düşük karbonlu ve sürdürülebilir bir ulaşımı hedeflemektedir. Yapay zekâ, trafik yönetimi ve enerji verimliliği gibi alanlarda önemli katkılar sunarak, şehir içi trafiği optimize edebilmekte ve karbon emisyonlarını azaltabilmektedir. Çalışmada yapay zekâ destekli ulaşım sistemlerinin trafik sıkışıklığını azaltma, enerji tüketimini optimize etme ve çevresel etkileri minimize etme potansiyelini vurgulanmaktadır. Aynı zamanda, yapay zekâ ve yeşil ulaşımın kent yaşamını nasıl dönüştürebileceği ve sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine nasıl katkı sağlayabileceği dünya ve Türkiye’den örnekler üzerinden incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, yeşil ulaşımın tarihçesi, teknolojik gelişmeler ve toplumsal bilinçlenmenin gelecekteki önemine de değinilmiştir. Makalenin bulguları, yapay zekâ ve yeşil ulaşımın entegre edilmesiyle daha sürdürülebilir, verimli ve çevre dostu şehirler oluşturmanın mümkün olduğunu göstermektedir.
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