No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.
Ground Validation of the Persian Leopard MaxEnt Potential Distribution Models: An Evaluation to Three Threshold Rules
Abstract
Species potential habitats predicted via various techniques, e.g. MaxEnt modelling in case of the current research, provide helpful information in terms of conservation and management programs, prioritization of limited resources and relative decision makings. Previous chapter was concerned with the modelling of the distribution of the Persian leopard potential habitats across the entire country in a regional context. Aside from the evaluation techniques to assess the modelling procedures which were done in the last chapter, validating the modelling outcomes according to the field data is essential. Thus, this chapter is dedicated to the ground validation of the predictive maps in selected study areas to ensure the accuracy for further conservation and management activities. For this purpose, three provinces in northeast (region 1), northwest (region 4) and south (region 3) of Iran with different environmental characteristics are selected to conduct camera trapping, field visits and indirect sign surveys, obtaining expert and local people knowledge via questionnaire surveys, group discussions and interviews. Three threshold methods including equal training sensitivity and specificity (A), maximum training sensitivity plus specificity (B) and minimum training presence (C) were selected for the purpose of binary classification of the predictive maps developed earlier using the MaxEnt software. The results indicated more accuracy of the sensitivity and specificity based threshold rules rather than the minimum training presence. Yet, intersection of the validated binary maps leads to the final conclusion of the habitat suitability rate of 0.3 on the predictive maps as a value to safely identify the actual potential habitats where importance for leopard conservation planning is confirmed.
... Lorestan Province contains important habitats for the leopard in the central Zagros Mountains in the west of Iran. This province has the highest density of suitable areas for the Persian leopard among the 31 provinces of Iran (Sanei et al. 2020a), while these areas hold above 0.3 probability of leopard presence (Sanei et al. 2020d). A notable rate of leopard mortalities was reported in this province during 2007-2011 because of shooting and species poisoning (Sanei et al. 2012). ...
This study was conducted in the Lorestan Province in the west of Iran with two objectives of identifying major environmental variables in spatial risk modeling and identifying spatial risk patches of livestock predation by the Persian leopard. An ensemble approach of three models of maximum entropy (MaxEnt), generalized boosting model (GBM), and random forest (RF) were applied for spatial risk modeling. Our results revealed that livestock density, distance to villages, forest density, and human population density were the most important variables in spatial risk modeling of livestock predation by the leopard. The center of the study area had the highest probability of livestock predation by the leopard. Ten spatial risk patches of livestock predation by the leopard were identified in the study area. In order to mitigate the revenge killing of the leopards, the findings of this study highlight the imperative of implementing strategies by the Department of Environment (DoE) to effectively accompany the herds entering the wildlife habitats with shepherds and a manageable number of guarding dogs. Accordingly, the identified risk patches in this study deserve considerable attention, especially three primary patches found in the center and southeast of Lorestan Province.
Fisheries monitoring, management, funding, and public interest have traditionally focused on game fishes, leading to insufficient data for many non-game freshwater fishes—including lampreys. Conserving lampreys is particularly challenging given their unique life history and propensity for avoiding conventional sampling methods. However, species distribution modeling is an innovative tool that can use historical presence data and spatial data to refine biodiversity monitoring. Here, we created four species distribution models using landscape-scale variables and species occurrence records to predict suitable and unsuitable habitats for extant, native Illinois lampreys. We developed three single-species models and one combined species model that utilized occurrence records from all five extant lamprey species in Illinois. Patterns of suitable and unsuitable habitats for native lampreys indicated similar preferences in habitat. Specifically, maximum temperature values were less than 25 °C and mean soil erodibility was between 0 and 0.5. Urban land cover was in all four models, but the patterns in habitat suitability were not the same across the lamprey species. These models can help natural resource managers prioritize survey sites and determine the contemporary distribution of this imperiled group of fishes.
Even though wildlife trafficking is considered as a serious wildlife threat worldwide, no concrete studies have been done so far on the severity of the illegal trade of the Iranian large carnivores. However, for the purpose of law enforcement aimed at prohibiting illegal trade of the specimens, readily recognizable part or derivate thereof, determination of conservation values of the target species is required. As such, an article in the first phase of the Persian Leopard National Conservation and Management Action Plan is dedicated to the relative valuation practices. Relatively, this study is to estimate Willingness to Pay (WTP) for leopard conservation in Iran and assessing the relative parameters according to a specialist conservation target group consisted of experts and staff of the Department of Environment across the leopard range in Iran. Subsequently, a study was conducted from May 2016 to February 2017 using contingent valuation method by applying dichotomous choice and two-dimensional questionnaires. In this regard, a total of 339 questionnaires were distributed among the target group across all provinces of Iran. The results demonstrated that WTP parameter was positive in 73% of the respondents. Yet, following by 1% increase in BID (maximum accepted proposed value), the probability of payment for leopard conservation is reduced up to 0.285%. According to the Logit model and maximum likelihood method and considering the sampling population (i.e., staff of the Department of Environment), the average WTP for annual leopard conservation is 136,263.5 IRR/per person equivalent to the annual total value of 887,893,454.9 IRR for the entire sampling population. The most important effective variables in this study include income and willingness to be a volunteer in non-governmental organizations. Conducting this research, the authors believe that conservation value of the Persian leopard is best evaluated only if a wide range of parameters and various sampling groups are involved in the assessment processes. Yet, the findings in this study suggest that the current penalty for illegal hunting of the leopards in Iran is less than the assessed value of WTP for leopard conservation as much as 87,893,454 IRR. Thus, results of this research could be used for the purpose of establishing appropriate penalties for illegal hunting and poisoning of the specimens as well as relative law enforcements concerning the cases of illegal trade.
This chapter is dedicated to assessing the Persian leopard potential distribution in Iran on a regional basis that aims to address four objectives and a null hypothesis. Objectives are concerning (1) estimation of the leopard potential distribution, (2) possibility of a major fragmentation in the Persian leopard range in Iran as first mentioned by Sanei et al. (2016), (3) prediction of landscape corridors which can improve the distribution pattern connectivity and (4) the main environmental variables that contribute to assessing the predictive maps. The null hypothesis addresses the variability of permutation importance of the environmental factors in accordance with the regional variability of environmental characteristics. Due to the variability of the environmental characteristics across the country and the leopard putative range which includes almost 30 provinces out of 31, the area has been innovatively divided into five significantly dissimilar regions as discussed in the previous chapter. Subsequently, MaxEnt modelling is conducted in a regional context using a total of 17 variables including 12 natural and 5 human factors together with more than 550 well distributed leopard occurrence data in all regions. Environmental variables have been tested for possible correlation prior to the modelling procedures. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to test the model fit to the data set. Jackknife test was performed to assess the contribution of environmental variables to the MaxEnt models. Fifteen replications with test percentage of 20% were used for validation. Additional evaluation of the predictive models was conducted by assessing the potential habitat distribution maps via the expert/local knowledge of 150 individuals from all five regions. Findings support that the Persian leopard range in Iran is in the process of a major fragmentation to the northern and the southern parts. Accordingly, two landscape corridors providing vital linkages to connect leopard potential habitats in a metapopulation scale are identified. Developed predictive maps in this chapter are a basis for the researches presented in Chaps. 5, 6 and 7. Authors believe that MaxEnt modeling on a regional basis has considerably improved the accuracy of the predictive maps that eventually formed the countrywide potential distribution of the Persian leopard potential habitats in Iran.
East Azarbaijan Province in northwest of Iran contains considerable areas of trans-boundary habitats that connect the Persian leopard areas in this region to those in South Caucasian countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia Republics. This connection supports leopard presence in South Caucasus via trans-boundary movements of the Persian leopard individuals. Accordingly, the current short communication followed by the studies presented earlier in Chaps. 4 and 5 provides an understanding to the clusters of potential habitats with the relative suitability rates. A total of 37 distinct habitats with suitability of more than 23% for the leopard presence are identified. This study suggests that while the most suitable areas for the leopards are distributed in the northern parts of the province, potential leopard areas in southern and southwestern parts of the province are much scattered and isolated. We also propose several linear corridors that connect these habitat clusters. Poaching of prey species, excess of livestock, alternation of pasture to cultivation lands, development of road network and habitat destructions are among the factors threatening the leopard in this zone. Trans-boundary conservation practices among neighboring countries as well as improvement in protection status of several identified key areas are recommended in this chapter.
Even though the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor is an endangered subspecies with the main population inhabiting in Iran (Khorozyan and Abramov, Zool Middle East 41:11–24, 2007; Kiabi et al., Zool Middle East 26(1):41–47, 2002), earlier studies (Sanei et al., Assessment of the Persian leopard mortality rate in Iran. In: Proceedings from UMT 11th International Annual Symposium on Sustainability Science and Management (pp. 1458–1462, 2012). Terengganu, Malaysia: Universiti Malaysia Terengganu) demonstrated that the majority of leopard mortalities are recorded to be as a result of intentional hunting, revenge killing, and poisoning of the specimens. To mitigate livestock–carnivore conflicts and reduce the subsequent revenge killings, an innovative model including a medium and a long-term insurance schemes together with awareness raising, trust building, and participatory conservation strategies is designed. Accordingly, the medium term insurance scheme addresses three main subjects of (1) improving conservation practices in the areas of leopard mortality hot spots, (2) medical payments and wergild for possible human injuries/maim/death because of human–leopard conflicts and (3) recompensing livestock depredation. Also, since the wolf Canis lupus distribution is comparable with the leopard range in the country, because of conservation concerns, damages caused by wolf depredation are also planned to be recompensed partially in the first type (i.e. medium term) insurance scheme and fully recompensed in the long term (i.e. second type) insurance program. Introducing sessions about the relative regulations and instructions were conducted for provincial wildlife wardens and DoE staff who are well familiar with wildlife sign surveys and have a quick access to the habitats in each region. Subsequently, they took the responsibility for identification of wildlife species in livestock–carnivore conflicts. Improvements in husbandry practices, linking the payments to the acceptable husbandry enhancements and participation in reducing risk of damages by local people are some of the instructions considered in the model to improve the efficacy and outcomes. So far, Department of Environment of Iran together with a private insurance company has partially launched the short term insurance scheme since 2016 and launching other sections of this model is in progress.
Cumulative effect of various land use and land cover variables that eventually affect suitability level of set/sets of habitats is a main concern in wildlife habitat conservation efforts. Even though, there have been various methodologies to identify the factors that influence probability of species persistence, survival, or occurrence in a particular habitat, no research has been conducted to assess the cumulative effects of LU/LC variations on the Persian leopard regional persistence (e.g., in several provinces, regions). Innovative formulation of the species and area specific regional indices, sub-indices, and threshold levels was carried out concerning the Persian leopard persistence in various regions of Iran (see chapter 3 for classification of regions). Regional and provincial values were assessed for the density of several variables including protected area, national park, wildlife reserve, forest, range lands, dry farming and irrigated farming, city, main and sub roads, village and human population. Principle Component Analysis and regression curve estimation techniques are the main analysis methods used in this study. Developing two types of empirically fitted models allows for adjusting the density of land use and land cover variables in a way to ensure that leopard persistence is not affected by the cumulative effect of the variables. Accordingly, current status of all provinces of Iran in relation to the cumulative effects of land use and land cover variables comparing to the corresponding threshold values together with relative conservation strategy is demonstrated in this chapter. Also, the findings support that the Persian leopard range in Iran is in the process of a major fragmentation into the northern and southern parts. Furthermore, this approach provides an insight to the managers and decision makers in order to identify wildlife friendly solutions in LU/LC and development planning. Since the leopard is an umbrella species, this model could be used to improve conservation status of the other co-existed species in leopard habitats (e.g., gray wolf, brown bear, wild goat, wild sheep, red deer, roe deer, etc.). Due to the fact that this innovative approach is on the basis of the data assessed about the Persian leopard in a regional context in Iran, the models are considered to be species and region specific. However, the same technical procedures can be modified using the area specific data for the leopard or other species in other countries and regions.
Similar to the other big cats of Iran (i.e., the Asiatic lion Panthera leo persica and the Caspian tiger Panthera tigris virgata that are extinct in the region), the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor has a unique importance in the Iranian art, history, and literature. Symbolization of these species over centuries to emphasize on strength, intelligence, and bravery of the kings and national heroes indicates the significance of the big cats including the leopard, for the Iranian society. The Persian leopard has been also the center of attention for several local and nationwide researches in Iran since 2002. Seeing this introductory chapter of the book mainly consisted of an overview to the prior knowledge about the subspecies, the cultural importance, results of an assessment to determine the leopard conservation requirements in various regions of Iran as well as problem trees addressing habitat-related issues (e.g., habitat destruction and degradation) and high leopard mortality rate.
Drought as a complex natural hazard is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters and its assessment is important for planning and managing water resources. So understanding the history of drought in an area is essential like investigating the effects of drought. In this study at first climate parameters affecting the drought have downscaled by LARS-WG stochastic weather generator over Gilan province in Iran. After choosing a suitable model, the outputs were used for assessing the drought situation in the period of 2011-2030. Assessing the drought was done by TOPSIS method during 2 periods (present and future). After validation of the method, zoning the drought was performed by IDW method in GIS. Results showed that the expanse of situations with lower drought index will increase. Also we will expect more droughts in these regions for the future.
This software note announces a new open-source release of the Maxent software for modeling species distributions from occurrence records and environmental data, and describes a new R package for fitting such models. The new release (Version 3.4.0) will be hosted online by the American Museum of Natural History, along with future versions. It contains small functional changes, most notably use of a complementary log-log (cloglog) transform to produce an estimate of occurrence probability. The cloglog transform derives from the recently-published interpretation of Maxent as an inhomogeneous Poisson process (IPP), giving it a stronger theoretical justification than the logistic transform which it replaces by default. In addition, the new R package, maxnet, fits Maxent models using the glmnet package for regularized generalized linear models. We discuss the implications of the IPP formulation in terms of model inputs and outputs, treating occurrence records as points rather than grid cells and interpreting the exponential Maxent model (raw output) as as an estimate of relative abundance. With these two open-source developments, we invite others to freely use and contribute to the software. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Species distribution modeling has seen widespread use in ecology and conservation over the past two decades, and as a result many questions regarding the predictive capabilities of new techniques have been raised. One modeling approach that has gained popularity is Maxent, which uses presence-only data to model species distributions. Although Maxent is ordinarily used to model a species' fundamental niche at large scales (e.g., continental-scale), this technique was used to develop a predictive model for the realized niche and local breeding distribution of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) in coastal New Jersey, USA. The transferability of the predictive model to locations outside training areas was examined in an effort to locate new breeding populations in previously unsurveyed areas. Initial model validation indicated that Maxent performed well, exhibiting good discrimination ability based on analyses of both training data (AUC = 0.95) and test data (AUC = 0.91). Ground surveys based on the final model located 185 previously unknown territorial pairs of American Oystercatchers, showing that Maxent was useful to locate new populations in alternative breeding habitats. However, when validated with an independent dataset, the Maxent model did not perform much better than random (AUC = 0.54), reporting high omission (0.76-0.93) and commission (0.40-0.83) error rates. The poor validation was attributed to source-sink dynamics rather than to errors in the modeling technique. Future researchers attempting to validate species distribution models with ground surveys should take into consideration metapopulation and source-sink theory in the design of surveys and interpretation of results.
A metapopulation is a spatially structured population that persists over time as a set of local populations with limited dispersal between them. At equilibrium, the frequencies of local extinctions and colonisations are in balance. Starting in 1969, and accelerating in the early 1990s, mathematical models of metapopulations have shown the importance of landscape connectivity and dispersal for persistence of a species in fragmented landscapes. Metapopulation ecology is a key concept in conservation ecology. Although pure metapopulations may be rare, there are many empirical studies in which metapopulation processes, primarily local colonisation and extinction, have been useful in explaining dynamics of natural, managed and experimental systems. Metapopulation structure also affects population genetics, the rate of evolution, and the evolution of traits related to habitat use. Finally, just as a population can be structured as a metapopulation, communities inhabiting a heterogeneous landscape can form a metacommunity.
Key Concepts
A metapopulation is made up of semi‐independent local populations, with interplay between local and regional population dynamics.
While few species may live as metapopulations in the strict sense, many species depend on metapopulation processes. That is, a species regional persistence depends on asynchronous local dynamics and dispersal.
Models of the persistence of species in fragmented landscapes become more realistic if the metapopulation dynamics of the species is taken into account.
Closely interacting species, such as a predator and its prey or strong competitors, may persist on a landscape scale owing to metapopulation dynamics of the species involved.
Metapopulation structure imposes genetic structure on a population, influencing its genetic viability, rate of evolution and what traits evolve.
Communities of species that are distributed in a landscape form a metacommunity. This concept shares important characteristics with metapopulations.
A rapid review of academic and grey literature revealed that the links between poverty, poaching and trafficking are under-researched and poorly understood. Yet, the assumption that poaching occurs because of poverty is omnipresent, with little ‘hard evidence’ to support the claim. Despite this, the authors are confident that the links are there, based on the evidence gathered. However, their understandings are hampered by a series of factors: trafficking and poaching are overwhelmingly framed as an issue of conservation/biodiversity loss rather than of poverty and development; it is difficult to collect clear and detailed data on poaching precisely because of its illicit nature; and many of the cases examined are also linked in with conflict zones, making research even more challenging.
It is more than a half-century since Iran lost its Asiatic lion. Lions were widespread in south Iran, specifically on the slopes of the Zagros and forest regions around Shiraz. They were slightly smaller than their African ancestor, with an obvious running belly fold, shorter mane, and thus visible ears. Current climate and other physical conditions in Iran seem to be in favour of the lions return. However, prey population and potential anthropogenic conflicts are major obstacles in re-introduction plans.
One of the most criticism in Real Estate appraisal processes based on sales comparison approach is the reliability of data about market prices of comparable properties. In this context, the use of evaluation methods based on hypothetical markets, most widely used in the field of the evaluation of environmental goods or cultural heritage, could solve that problem. It has been found that estimating the willing to pay (WTP) for a sample of goods with different features brings to reliable outcomes with negligible gaps by comparison with the values obtained by the more traditional real estate appraisal methods. According to these general assumptions, the paper suggests the use of Contingent Valuation Method with the aim of replace in the appraisal models the market prices of a sample of properties with the WTP for the same goods.
Combating the surge of illegal wildlife trade (IWT) devastating wildlife populations is an urgent global priority for conservation. There are increasing policy commitments to take action at the local community level as part of effective responses. However, there is scarce evidence that in practice such interventions are being pursued and there is scant understanding regarding how they can help. Here we set out a conceptual framework to guide efforts to effectively combat IWT through actions at community level. This framework is based on articulating the net costs and benefits involved in supporting conservation vs supporting IWT, and how these incentives are shaped by anti-IWT interventions. Using this framework highlights the limitations of an exclusive focus on "top-down", enforcement-led responses to IWT. These responses can distract from a range of other approaches that shift incentives for local people toward supporting conservation rather than IWT, as well as in some cases actually decrease the net incentives in favour of wildlife conservation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
The ecosystem services (ES) framework was developed to articulate and measure the benefits humans receive from ecosystems. Cultural ecosystem services (CES), usually defined as the intangible and nonmaterial benefits ecosystems provide, have been relatively neglected by researchers and policy-makers compared to provisioning, supporting, and regulating services. Although valuing CES poses several conceptual and methodological difficulties, it is of huge interest and importance because of the linkages between cultural values, valuation methods, and the individual and collective decision-making that influence ecosystems and human wellbeing. This review is not a how-to guide, but rather examines key conceptual issues and maps critical areas of debate. There is a range of potential approaches to assessing CES; however, choices regarding valuation methods and their role in decision-making are shaped by cultural and political dynamics. CES are at a crossroads. They can potentially act as a fruitful conceptual container for a broad range of interdisciplinary research into human-environment relations and transform how decisions regarding the environment are made, but they can also be used to legitimize and entrench modes of decision-making that marginalize and undermine the very values they are intended to protect. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources Volume 41 is October 17, 2016. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/catalog/pubdates.aspx for revised estimates.
In this study, we used bootstrap simulation of a real data set to investigate the impact of sample size (N = 20, 30, 40 and 50) on the eigenvalues and eigenvectors resulting from principal component analysis (PCA). For each sample size, 100 bootstrap samples were drawn from environmental data matrix pertaining to water quality variables (p = 22) of a small data set comprising of 55 samples (stations from where water samples were collected). Because in ecology and environmental sciences the data sets are invariably small owing to high cost of collection and analysis of samples, we restricted our study to relatively small sample sizes. We focused attention on comparison of first 6 eigenvectors and first 10 eigenvalues. Data sets were compared using agglomerative cluster analysis using Ward’s method that does not require any stringent distributional assumptions.
The aim of this study is the spatial analysis of rainfall in wet and dry months of the year in south-west Iran especially Lorestan. Since the variety of climates and natural dangers is largely affected by the climate changes, therefore, the climatic models must show the climate features daily and yearly
In the search for sustainable architecture, there is growing interest in the relationship between nature and design. In this vital new book, the term bioclimatic, relating to the dynamic between climate and living organisms, is applied by the authors in focusing on countries where housing requires cooling for a significant part of the year. In this context, Bioclimatic Housing covers creative, vernacular architecture to present both the theory and practice of innovative, low-energy architecture. The book interweaves the themes of social progress, technological fixes and industry transformation within a discussion of global and country trends, climate types, solutions and technologies. Prepared under the auspices of a 5-year International Energy Agency (IEA) project, and with case studies from Iran, Malaysia, Australia, Japan, Sri Lanka and Italy, this is a truly international and authoritative work, providing an essential primer for building designers, builders, developers and advanced students in architecture and engineering.
In exploratory factor analysis (EFA), most popular methods for dimensionality assessment such as the screeplot, the Kaiser criterion, or-the current gold standard-parallel analysis, are based on eigenvalues of the correlation matrix. To further understanding and development of factor retention methods, results on population and sample eigenvalue distributions are introduced based on random matrix theory and Monte Carlo simulations. These results are used to develop a new factor retention method, the Empirical Kaiser Criterion. The performance of the Empirical Kaiser Criterion and parallel analysis is examined in typical research settings, with multiple scales that are desired to be relatively short, but still reliable. Theoretical and simulation results illustrate that the new Empirical Kaiser Criterion performs as well as parallel analysis in typical research settings with uncorrelated scales, but much better when scales are both correlated and short. We conclude that the Empirical Kaiser Criterion is a powerful and promising factor retention method, because it is based on distribution theory of eigenvalues, shows good performance, is easily visualized and computed, and is useful for power analysis and sample size planning for EFA. (PsycINFO Database Record
Persistence of widespread degradation in arid and semi-arid region of Iran necessitates using of monitoring and evaluation systems with appropriate accuracy to determine the degradation process and adoption of early warning systems; because after transition from some thresholds, effective reversible function of ecosystems will not be very easy. This paper tries to monitor the degradation and desertification trends in three land uses including range, forest and desert lands affected by climate change in Tehran province for 2000s and 2030s. For assessing climate changes of Mehrabad synoptic stations the data of two emission scenarios including A2 and B2 were used using statistical downscaling techniques and data generated by SDSM model. The index of net primary production resulting from MODIS satellite images was employed as an indicator of destruction from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that temperature is the most effective driver force which alters the net primary production in rangeland, forest and desert ecosystems of Tehran province. On the basis of monitoring findings under real conditions, in the 2000s, over 60 % of rangelands and 80 % of the forests have been below the average production in the province. On the other hand, the long-term average changes of NPP in rangeland and forests indicated the presence of relatively large areas of these land uses with production rate lower than the desert. The results also showed that, assuming the existence of circumstances of each emission scenarios, the desertification status will not improve significantly in the rangelands and forests of Tehran province.
Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province located in northeastern Iran and southern Turkmenistan is one of the important centers of plant endemism in Irano-Turanian region. In order to evaluate the plant endemism, distribution and conservation, we generated an updated and annotated checklist of 356 endemic vascular plant taxa belonging to 112 genera and 36 families of angiosperms. The genera Astragalus and Cousinia have the highest number of endemics and the hemicryptophytes are the dominant life form. On the basis of the available distributional data, mainly from herbarium records and reliable references, we analyzed the distribution patterns and diversity of the endemic taxa. The central part of KK has the highest endemic richness, and the least number of endemics occur in the southern part. Mapping the occurrence data of the endemics revealed 16 main distribution patterns. There are only 24 widespread endemics, and more than half of the endemic taxa are restricted to only one of five geographical zones of the area. Analysis of endemic diversity based on 15ʹ grid cell maps showed that the Central part of Kopet Dagh range, Aladagh and Salook ranges and Golestan National Park are located in the areas with the highest endemic richness. Mapping the beta diversity of the grid cells revealed the vast areas of the Central part, following some areas of the Eastern, Western and Northwestern parts, are highly differentiated by composition of endemic plants. All of the KK endemic taxa were evaluated against the IUCN Red List categories and criteria and a total of 200 endemic taxa were globally classified as threatened including 24 Critically Endangered, 72 Endangered and 104 Vulnerable taxa. Areas with the highest threatened endemics richness are located in Central Kopet Dagh range along Iran-Turkmenistan border, Golestan National Park and adjacent Ghorkhod Protected area, Aladagh and Salook ranges, and the eastern part of Binalood range. Implications of the results in conservation prioritization of the endemic taxa and also of the geographical areas are discussed. As far as possible the taxonomic status of known endemics are critically checked, type specimens of some doubtful taxa are consulted, and representative vouchers of reported species are given. The new species Heliotropium khayyamii Akhani sp. nov. is described and seven taxa are placed as new synonyms: Astragalus salehabadensis Ranjbar & Zarin (= A. basineri Trautv.), A. torbathaydariyehensis Ranjbar & Zarin (= A. basineri), Astragalus ghouchanensis Souzani, Zarre & Maassoumi (= A. sumbari Popov), Cousinia golestanica Attar (= C. stahliana Bornm. & Gauba), Centaurea bojnordensis Ranjbar, Negaresh & Joharchi (= C. sintenisiana Gand.), Cyanus persicus Ranjbar & Negaresh (= C. depressus (M. Bieb.) Soják) and Klasea nana Ranjbar & Negaresh (= K. latifolia (Boiss.) L.Martins). Twenty-five taxa with poor taxonomic evidence are listed separately as doubtful. Distribution maps of almost all known endemics are provided.
Climatic geomorphology developed as an alternative to Davisian theory for landscape evolution. Climatic geomorphology or morphoclimatic geomorphology investigates the influence of climate upon the relief. The interference of climate whether in the basis of weathering or the mechanical influence of morphogenesis processes is highly variable. Features of the relief is analyzed through various factors of morphogenesis system which is influenced by internal and exogenous dynamism. to succeed at this purpose ISOCluster analysis method was used.
Allometric relationships for estimating the biomass of the crown of Lebanon oak (Quercus libani Oliv.) have been developed through using biometric parameters such as the diameter at breast height, tree height, crown length, and crown width. The study was conducted in Armardeh forests in Iran’s northern Zagros mountains; for a long time the local people have been pollarding the crown of oak trees in these forests for their traditional uses. After the local people entirely cut the crowns of 48 sample trees, the weight of the crowns and their constituting components (leaves and branches) were measured. The results showed that the amount of the crown biomass of Lebanon oak at the stand level is about 4.98±0.81 tons ha (95% confidence interval), 79% of which are branches and the rest are leaves.
All the equations, representing the relationships between biometric parameters and the biomass of the crown or its components, were highly significant (p
Background
Around 2000 plant species occur naturally in Lorestan Province of which 250 species are medicinal and myrtle is one of them. Myrtle is a shrub whose leaves and fruits have medicinal value and thus, if managed and harvested properly, could produce sustained economic benefits. In recent years, however, over half of the myrtle site areas was destroyed, due to inappropriate management and excessive harvesting practices. Thus, coming up with a practical harvesting approach along with identifying those factors damaging the sites, seems to be very crucial.
Methods
In our investigation, we calculated the conservation value per hectare of myrtle in the Dooreh forest area in Lorestan Province. Using the Contingent Valuation (CV) and Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice (DBDC) methods, we determined the willingness to pay (WTP) for myrtle conservation. The WTP was estimated with a logit model for which indices were obtained based on a maximum precision criterion.
Results
The results showed that 86.67 per cent of people were willing to pay for the conservation of these myrtle sites. Average monthly WTP per family was calculated as 102,525. Among the variables of the model presented, education had a positive impact, while the amount proposed for payment and family size had a negative impact on the WTP.
Conclusions
Our estimate of the value of myrtle conservation should provide justification for policy makers and decision making bodies of natural resources to implement policies in order to conserve the natural sites of this species more effectively.
Keywords: Conservation value; Myrtle; Contingent valuation method; Double Bounded Dichotomous method; Logit model
Over the last three decades the average life expectancy of a corporation in North America has dipped well below 20 years. In fact, by 1983 a full third of the 1970 Fortune 500 companies had been acquired, merged, or broken apart. In this landmark book, one of the business world's foremost pioneers, Russell L. Ackoff, delivers this indispensable guide for those hoping to beat these odds--and to better navigate the corporate challenges of the next millennium. While most business and management schools continue to teach the functions of a corporation separately--production, marketing, finance, personnel--the reality is that for a corporation to endure each division must work with the others to create an effective system. Re-Creating the Corporation is Ackoff's masterful blueprint for understanding and creating these model corporate systems. In four comprehensive sections--Background, Process, Designs, and Change--Ackoff lays out in clear concise prose the five organizational goals of successful corporate systems: plan effectively, learn and adapt rapidly, democratize, introduce internal market economies, and employ a flexible structure that will minimize the need for future restructuring. And through a deft mix of practical and theoretical examples drawn from a wide range of applications in a wide range of firms, this book ultimately guides executives to the system best suited to meet their organizational goals. Re-Creating the Corporation, which is the culmination of a lifetime of innovative and insightful business thought from one of the business world's premier thinkers, is essential reading for those attempting to navigate the rapidly changing economic environment of the next millennium.
To study the Persian leopard potential habitats, to assess conservation needs and priorities, and also to conduct relative conservation and management programs, considering extensive variability of natural and socioeconomic characteristics across the leopard range in Iran is essential. Iran is a vast country with wide range of the Persian leopard across almost all provinces. Failing to closely concentrate on the notable variability of aforementioned characteristics in each part of the leopard range across the country may negatively affect the species distribution modelling practices as well as many other research, conservation, and management programs. Accordingly, this chapter is dedicated to a novel classification addressing the leopard putative range in Iran for further relative programs. Subsequently, a total of nine natural and human variables including climate, topography, dry condition, vegetation, and elevation, also protected areas, human population, land use, and human poverty index were used to classify the area into the groups with the most similarities. This is conducted by the means of extracting inherent clusters in the dataset of aforementioned variables in all provinces without prior tagging of the cases. Afterwards, topography and climatology in each region are briefly discussed. Conducting the large scale research, conservation, and management programs on a regional basis as introduced in this chapter is recommended not only for the leopard, but also for other wide ranging species in Iran when the program is affected by the variability of natural and socioeconomic characteristics.
To ensure persistence of a viable population of the Persian leopard in its wide range across Iran wherein also supports trans-boundary movements of the leopards to adjacent areas, the Iranian Department of Environment together with the Asian Leopard Specialist Society embarked on preparation of a species specific conservation and management action plan. Therefore, relative need assessments, stakeholder analysis, and required studies were conducted since 2012. To address the actual status of the Persian leopard in Iran an appropriate participatory planning model has been developed and subsequently, planning activities were conducted during several workshops and sessions by involvement of a wide range of participants from all over the country. A total of 45 internal and external main categories of stakeholders were recognized which also include various governmental and non-governmental organizations. Relatively, questionnaire surveys have been sent out to 60 universities and 220 NGOs with relative field of activities to identify the potential capabilities for implementation of the operations. These five annual action plans cover main topics of awareness raising, training and empowerment; habitat, media, veterinary and disease, rehabilitation centers, trans-boundary habitats and international co-operation, genetic conservation, compensation and insurance program, Persian leopard national network; research, evaluation and monitoring, protection units and wildlife wardens together with relative laws and regulations. This chapter briefly introduces this national document which was officially endorsed in early 2016 for implementation.
This chapter is dedicated to assessing the Persian leopard potential distribution in Iran on a regional basis that aims to address four objectives and a null hypothesis. Objectives are concerning (1) estimation of the leopard potential distribution, (2) possibility of a major fragmentation in the Persian leopard range in Iran as first mentioned by Sanei et al. (2016), (3) prediction of landscape corridors which can improve the distribution pattern connectivity and (4) the main environmental variables that contribute to assessing the predictive maps. The null hypothesis addresses the variability of permutation importance of the environmental factors in accordance with the regional variability of environmental characteristics. Due to the variability of the environmental characteristics across the country and the leopard putative range which includes almost 30 provinces out of 31, the area has been innovatively divided into five significantly dissimilar regions as discussed in the previous chapter. Subsequently, MaxEnt modelling is conducted in a regional context using a total of 17 variables including 12 natural and 5 human factors together with more than 550 well distributed leopard occurrence data in all regions. Environmental variables have been tested for possible correlation prior to the modelling procedures. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to test the model fit to the data set. Jackknife test was performed to assess the contribution of environmental variables to the MaxEnt models. Fifteen replications with test percentage of 20% were used for validation. Additional evaluation of the predictive models was conducted by assessing the potential habitat distribution maps via the expert/local knowledge of 150 individuals from all five regions. Findings support that the Persian leopard range in Iran is in the process of a major fragmentation to the northern and the southern parts. Accordingly, two landscape corridors providing vital linkages to connect leopard potential habitats in a metapopulation scale are identified. Developed predictive maps in this chapter are a basis for the researches presented in Chaps. 5, 6 and 7. Authors believe that MaxEnt modeling on a regional basis has considerably improved the accuracy of the predictive maps that eventually formed the countrywide potential distribution of the Persian leopard potential habitats in Iran.
East Azarbaijan Province in northwest of Iran contains considerable areas of trans-boundary habitats that connect the Persian leopard areas in this region to those in South Caucasian countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia Republics. This connection supports leopard presence in South Caucasus via trans-boundary movements of the Persian leopard individuals. Accordingly, the current short communication followed by the studies presented earlier in Chaps. 4 and 5 provides an understanding to the clusters of potential habitats with the relative suitability rates. A total of 37 distinct habitats with suitability of more than 23% for the leopard presence are identified. This study suggests that while the most suitable areas for the leopards are distributed in the northern parts of the province, potential leopard areas in southern and southwestern parts of the province are much scattered and isolated. We also propose several linear corridors that connect these habitat clusters. Poaching of prey species, excess of livestock, alternation of pasture to cultivation lands, development of road network and habitat destructions are among the factors threatening the leopard in this zone. Trans-boundary conservation practices among neighboring countries as well as improvement in protection status of several identified key areas are recommended in this chapter.
Cumulative effect of various land use and land cover variables that eventually affect suitability level of set/sets of habitats is a main concern in wildlife habitat conservation efforts. Even though, there have been various methodologies to identify the factors that influence probability of species persistence, survival, or occurrence in a particular habitat, no research has been conducted to assess the cumulative effects of LU/LC variations on the Persian leopard regional persistence (e.g., in several provinces, regions). Innovative formulation of the species and area specific regional indices, sub-indices, and threshold levels was carried out concerning the Persian leopard persistence in various regions of Iran (see chapter 3 for classification of regions). Regional and provincial values were assessed for the density of several variables including protected area, national park, wildlife reserve, forest, range lands, dry farming and irrigated farming, city, main and sub roads, village and human population. Principle Component Analysis and regression curve estimation techniques are the main analysis methods used in this study. Developing two types of empirically fitted models allows for adjusting the density of land use and land cover variables in a way to ensure that leopard persistence is not affected by the cumulative effect of the variables. Accordingly, current status of all provinces of Iran in relation to the cumulative effects of land use and land cover variables comparing to the corresponding threshold values together with relative conservation strategy is demonstrated in this chapter. Also, the findings support that the Persian leopard range in Iran is in the process of a major fragmentation into the northern and southern parts. Furthermore, this approach provides an insight to the managers and decision makers in order to identify wildlife friendly solutions in LU/LC and development planning. Since the leopard is an umbrella species, this model could be used to improve conservation status of the other co-existed species in leopard habitats (e.g., gray wolf, brown bear, wild goat, wild sheep, red deer, roe deer, etc.). Due to the fact that this innovative approach is on the basis of the data assessed about the Persian leopard in a regional context in Iran, the models are considered to be species and region specific. However, the same technical procedures can be modified using the area specific data for the leopard or other species in other countries and regions.
Similar to the other big cats of Iran (i.e., the Asiatic lion Panthera leo persica and the Caspian tiger Panthera tigris virgata that are extinct in the region), the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor has a unique importance in the Iranian art, history, and literature. Symbolization of these species over centuries to emphasize on strength, intelligence, and bravery of the kings and national heroes indicates the significance of the big cats including the leopard, for the Iranian society. The Persian leopard has been also the center of attention for several local and nationwide researches in Iran since 2002. Seeing this introductory chapter of the book mainly consisted of an overview to the prior knowledge about the subspecies, the cultural importance, results of an assessment to determine the leopard conservation requirements in various regions of Iran as well as problem trees addressing habitat-related issues (e.g., habitat destruction and degradation) and high leopard mortality rate.
This book is different from most textbooks on statistical techniques. One difference is the wide range of techniques and subjects covered. The subjects in this book vary from classic techniques like analysis of variance and multiple regression to reliability and agreement analysis, matrix algebra, factor analysis, loglinear modelling and logistic regression. Another difference is that we refrained from focussing in detail on mathematical aspects. We tried to emphasize how statistical techniques are related to the kind of conceptual problems a language researcher has to face in empirical research. © 1993 by Walter de Gruyter & Co., D-1000 Berlin 30. All rights reserved.
How do companies design a suitable market research plan? We explore how you can plan, start, and identify the research question that will best guide your market research. Identifying the “right” question is difficult, but we provide several strategies and suggestions to help you quickly identify and formulate a market research process. In addition, we provide a practical overview of the different types of research, including exploratory, descriptive, and causal research; the different research goals and the needs they fulfil, and discuss their different uses and potential research outcomes. We offer guidelines that will help you determine the optimal match between the research question and the type of research design.
Because rare and cryptic species can be difficult to locate, distribution maps for such species are often inaccurate or incomplete. Bog Turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) are emblematic of this challenge. Conducting surveys of known, historical, and potential Bog Turtle habitat is a specific need stated in the Bog Turtle Northern Population Recovery Plan and in most Comprehensive Wildlife Conservation Strategies of states in the southern population. To address this need, we constructed a species distribution model for the southern population of Bog Turtles and ground-validated the model to assess its ability to locate suitable Bog Turtle habitat. Our final model identified 998,325 ha of potentially suitable habitat. On-the-ground evaluation of habitat identified as potentially suitable was carried out at 113 wetlands in Georgia and 83 in South Carolina. Of these, only nine wetlands met criteria for suitable Bog Turtle habitat in Georgia and 13 in South Carolina. Trapping efforts at the nine Georgia sites and eight of the South Carolina sites showed Bog Turtles to be present at two of the Georgia sites. This ground-validation effort demonstrates that the species distribution model greatly over-predicts the amount of suitable habitat for Bog Turtles. Nonetheless, this manner of searching for rare and cryptic species does avoid the typical biases of haphazard searches and helps identify habitat on private property. Given these findings, the model is most useful when the area of interest is small, such as a county within the range of a species that currently has no known occurrence records.
Environmental economics, which used to be on the periphery of the economics discipline, is fast becoming mainstream as concern for the environment grows. Practitioners in other disciplines (e.g. engineering, science, natural resource management, social sciences) are increasingly faced with environmental problems that have an economic component. This invaluable book fills an important gap in the literature by teaching both economists and non-economists how to use economic tools to address environmental problems. The book is divided into three parts. Part I introduces theoretical concepts, including chapters on ecological economics and basic microeconomics for the non-specialist. Part II introduces tools for environmental policy analysis, while Part III discusses global environmental issues. The material is presented in an engaging manner with extensive use of graphs and diagrams to explain the key concepts. Exercises and an extensive bibliography are provided at the end of each chapter. © 2005 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved.
Three Persian leopards ( Panthera pardus saxicolor) that died from car accidents in Golestan National Park, Iran, were examined for Toxoplasma gondii and rabies virus infection. Acute T. gondii infection was diagnosed in two Persian leopards but no rabies virus was detected. Acute toxoplasmosis may be one of the factors leading to Persian leopard road kills.
Wolves (Canis lupus) were once common throughout North America but were deliberately exterminated in the lower 48 United States, except in northeastern Minnesota, primarily because of depredations on livestock. Wolves remained abundant in areas with few livestock such as most of Canada and Alaska. Sixty years after being nearly exterminated, the gray wolf was listed under the United States Endangered Species Act (Act) in 1974. The combination of natural recovery in NW Montana, and reintroduction in central Idaho and the Greater Yellowstone area (NW Wyoming, eastern Idaho, and SW Montana) has resulted in an expanding wolf population (Bangs et al. 1998). In this paper we discuss our attempts to minimize conflicts between wolves and livestock and to build human tolerance for restoring wolf populations.
Groundwater can be used directly or indirectly and any decline in its quality or quantity may negatively impact the environment. Through groundwater valuation, people are made aware of the fact that groundwater is not free of charge and therefore the significance of groundwater preservation is established. In this study, groundwater quality preservation value has been estimated for the city of Yazd based on the contingent valuation method (CVM). The methodology used consisted of field study and library research. After determining the sample size using Cochran's formula, the distributed questionnaires were filled by the inhabitants of the city of Yazd. Thereafter, the results were analysed using Excel and EViews. Finally, people's willingness to pay for the preservation of Yazd groundwater quality was estimated to be US$18.5 annually per capita, which is a remarkable value. Hence, it was determined that groundwater quality preservation was of great value to the inhabitants of Yazd.
The objective of this study was to estimate the population size of common leopard (Panthera pardus) in Ayer Hitam Forest Reserve in Selangor, Malaysia. Long term survival of leopard population in this area is threatened due to small size of the forest, isolation and presence of various disturbances in the habitat. However, no estimates are available on the number of leopard in the study area. We used unsupervised classification of pugmarks that allows clustering of the data sets based on their inherent similarities. Study was conducted during February to November 2008. Linear measurements of front and hind tracks and strides (n = 124) were classified using hierarchical cluster and discriminant analysis which indicated that at least four individuals of leopard were present in the study area of 1,411 ha. Despite the small size of the forest, the area is still rich in both fauna and flora. The leopard being the predator, has an important role in maintaining the health of the ecosystem. Therefore, the population size of the leopard could be used as indicator of sustainable conservation and management of the species in the area.
In this chapter, we present a literature review about geosimulation characteristics and its difference with the traditional methods. It is not our intention to restate the basic foundations of each particular methodology; nevertheless it is essential to provide a comprehensive explanation of the basics of the Cellular Automata model, the Markov Chain Model, the Cellular Automata Markov approach and the Logistic Regression Model. This is helpful to deal with their strengths and weaknesses. Thus, this chapter will first introduce the ABM system in contrast with the aforementioned traditional methodologies. Then we present an overview about the current and existing toolkits to design an agent-based model and their capability to create a geosimulation environment.
Estimating the economic benefits of reduced health damages due to improvements in environmental quality continues to challenge economists. We review welfare measures associated with reduced wildfire smoke exposure, and a unique dataset from California's Station Fire of 2009 allows for a comparison of cost of illness (COI) estimates with willingness to pay (WTP) measures. The WTP for one less symptom day is estimated to be 95, using the defensive behavior and contingent valuation methods, respectively. These WTP estimates are not statistically different but do differ from a 17 comprehensive daily COI estimate. © 2013 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.