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Original Article
Projection of Life Expectancy at Birth of Malaysian Population:
A Modelling Approach
Md. Rafiqul Islam,1,2 Mahendran Shitan,2,3 Md. Nazrul Islam Mondal*1
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to project life expectancies (LEs) by sexes and ethnic groups for
Malaysia. The secondary data of LE by sex and ethnic groups for Malaysia were extracted
from the Department of Statistics, Government of Malaysia. The exponential growth model
was employed to fulfill the objective. Projections of LEs for male and female of Malaysia by
ethnicity were estimated by using exponential growth model for the years 2014-2050. The
study investigated that the LEs for male and female of Malaysia by ethnicity are showing
increasing trend. Results revealed that LEs for the female is greater than that of the male
for each ethnic group. The projected LEs for male and female of Malaysia in 2050 would be
79.13 and 84.05 years, respectively. The population of Malaysia will tend to live long. The
Government should have clear information about the number of elderly population
ensuring their healthy environment.
Key words: Life expectancy, ethnic groups in Malaysia, exponential growth model,
Malaysia
(Journal of The Indian Academy of Geriatrics, 2017; 13:68-72)
INTRODUCTION
Life expectancy (LE) is defined as the mean
number of additional years that a person of a
specific age will live when the age-specific mortality
rates remain constant over the course of the
individual's lifetime and it is an alternative
measure of mortality in the human population.1 LE
is the principal health indicator of a nation. On the
contrary, education and health are the leading
sectors for social development in the developing
country like Malaysia. In Malaysia LE is more or
less similar in international comparison with the
median of LE for male and female being 72 and 77
years respectively in 2015.2 LE is not the measure
of the elderly population, but it represents the
present situation of the socioecon-omic development
of a country. In Malaysia, LE is increasing over
time similar to developed countries. Like many
other countries, women live longer than men in
Malaysia, and this gender gap in LE has been
increasing over time. The longer LE for female does
not necessarily mean that they are healthier than
that of men.
A number of studies using self-reported health
status measure indicate higher prevalence of
functional limitations and poor health among
women population suggesting that the additional
years may not necessarily be lived in healthy
1Department of Population Science and Human
Resource Development, Rajshahi University, Rajshahi,
Bangladesh; 2Laboratory of Computational Stati-stics
and Operations Research, Institute for Mathem-atical
Research, University Putra Malaysia, Serdang,
Selangor, Malaysia; 3Department of Mathematics,
Faculty of Science, University Putra Malaysia,
Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
*Corresponding author: Dr Md. Nazrul Islam
Mondal, Professor, Department of Population Science
and Human Resource Development, Rajshahi
University, Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh, E-mail:
nazrulupm@gmail.com
Projection of Life Expectancy at Birth 69
conditions.3-6 Projections using exponential growth
model had been employed in recent studies.7-11 LE is
increasing every year which may imply that the
aged population is growing not only in Malaysia but
also all over the world. For this reason, correct
information regarding increased LE in future is
needed to take several steps for development of
education, health, environment and others sectors
in Malaysia as well as in the world as a whole.
Therefore, the study has attempted to apply
exponential growth model to examine the projection
of LEs for male and female separately and the
different ethnic groups in Malaysia for the years
2014-2050.
DATA AND METHODS
The secondary data on LE for male and female
of Malaysia by ethnic groups were taken from the
Department of Statistics, Government of Malaysia.
There are different types of methods of carrying out
population projections but primarily two methods
namely the Cohort-Component Method and the
mathematical approach are used. In developed
nations, the Cohort-Component Method is one of
the widely used method of population projections
because of the availability of sufficient data. In
developing countries having insufficient data,
perhaps a mathematical approach might be more
appropriate to make projections. For this,
exponential growth model is considered for the
projection of LEs of Malaysia.
For the projection of LEs for male and female
of Malaysia by ethnic groups, exponential growth
model is considered and the mathematical
formulation of this model is addressed by
12 tt PP =
{
}
)(exp 12 ttr − , ........................... (1)
where, 1
t
Pthe initial LE at time t1 (2001); 2
t
P,
the terminal LE at time t2 (2013);
r
, the annual
growth rate during the interval.12
The estimation of
r
is computed from
equation 1 as follows.
r
=
()
⎟
⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛
−1
2
12
ln
1
t
t
P
P
tt . ............................... (2)
Years 2001 and 2013 are considered as the
initial and the terminal points respectively in
estimating the growth rates of LEs by using
equation 2. This process is carried out successively
37 times for each case.
Moreover, the LE at birth for both sexes in
2013 and 2050 have been estimated using the
following formula
s
ese
e
m
f
+
+
=1
0
0
0
0 ;
Where, m
e0 is the LE at birth for male, f
e0 is
the LE at birth for female and s is the sex ratio at
birth at the same year. It is noted that sex ratio is
chosen as 1.029 in both cases.
RESULTS
In Malaysia, the LEs for the years 2001-2013
are presented by sexes and by ethnicity in Table 1.
In the case of total population, the LEs were 72.60
years for males and 77.20 years for females in 2013.
In this study, three ethnic groups, viz. Bumiputera,
Chinese, and Indian were considered. In the case of
ethnic groups, the LEs were 73.67 years (male,
71.30; female, 76.10) for Bumiputera; 77.32 years
(male, 75.00; female, 79.70) for Chinese; and 71.99
years (male, 67.90; female, 76.20) for Indian in 2013
(Table 1). The projected LEs up to the years 2050 by
sexes and by ethnicity are presented in Table 2. The
results revealed that the LEs in 2050 would be
81.56 years (male, 79.13; female, 84.05) for total
population; 80.53 years (male, 77.15; female, 84.00)
for Bumiputera; 83.84 years (male, 82.21; female,
85.52) for Chinese; and 78.51 years (male, 72.74;
females, 84.45) for Indian ethnic groups (Table 2).
The LEs for females would be higher compared to
males, and the LE (83.87 years) for ethnic Chinese
population would be the highest compared to other
ethnic populations.
DISCUSSION
The main objective of this study was to project
the LEs of Malaysian populations by ethnicity and
by sex. The exponential growth model was used as
the mathematical tool to project the LEs. The
projections were made up to the year 2050. The
results revealed that the LEs of Malaysian
population is increasing with time. Women tend to
live longer than men, and it is reflected in
differences in LEs. In this study, the LE was
considered the average number of years a person
can expect to live given existing mortality patterns.
The LE is considered the most commonly used
indicator of a population's general health status.
Nevertheless, LE should be recognised a measure of
the length of life rather than the quality of life, as it
does not account for the full burden of illness and
disability.
70 Journal of The Indian Academy of Geriatrics, Vol. 13, No. 2, June, 2017
Table 1. Life expectancy by ethnic groups and sex in Malaysia during 2001-2013
Total Bumiputera Chinese Indian Year
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
2001 70.6 75.1 69.5 73.7 72.8 77.9 66.4 73.7
2002 70.8 75.3 69.6 73.9 73.0 78.1 66.8 74.1
2003 70.9 75.6 69.7 74.2 73.1 78.3 66.8 74.5
2004 71.1 75.9 69.9 74.4 73.3 78.5 67.2 75.1
2005 71.4 76.2 70.1 74.7 73.6 78.9 67.6 75.4
2006 71.5 76.3 70.2 74.7 73.8 79.0 67.9 75.5
2007 71.5 76.3 70.2 74.8 73.9 79.2 67.9 75.7
2008 71.6 76.4 70.2 74.8 73.9 79.3 67.9 75.7
2009 71.6 76.5 70.2 74.8 74.0 79.5 68.0 75.8
2010 71.9 76.6 70.7 75.4 74.4 79.1 67.6 75.7
2011 72.1 76.8 70.9 75.7 74.6 79.5 67.8 75.8
2012 72.4 77.0 71.1 75.9 74.9 79.7 67.9 76.2
2013 72.6 77.2 71.3 76.1 75.0 79.7 67.9 76.2
Source: The website of Department of Statistics, Govt. of Malaysia.
Table 2. Projection of life expectancy by ethnic groups and sex in Malaysia during 2014-2050
Total Bumiputera Chinese Indian Year
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
2014 72.77 77.38 71.45 76.30 75.19 79.85 68.03 76.41
2015 72.94 77.56 71.60 76.51 75.37 80.00 68.15 76.62
2016 73.11 77.73 71.76 76.71 75.56 80.16 68.28 76.84
2017 73.28 77.91 71.91 76.92 75.75 80.31 68.41 77.05
2018 73.45 78.09 72.06 77.12 75.94 80.46 68.53 77.27
2019 73.62 78.27 72.22 77.33 76.12 80.62 68.66 77.48
2020 73.79 78.45 72.37 77.54 76.31 80.77 68.79 77.70
2021 73.96 78.63 72.53 77.74 76.50 80.92 68.92 77.91
2022 74.14 78.81 72.68 77.95 76.69 81.08 69.05 78.13
2023 74.31 78.99 72.84 78.16 76.88 81.23 69.18 78.35
2024 74.48 79.18 72.99 78.37 77.08 81.39 69.30 78.57
2025 74.66 79.36 73.15 78.58 77.27 81.54 69.43 78.78
2026 74.83 79.54 73.30 78.79 77.46 81.70 69.56 79.00
2027 75.01 79.72 73.46 79.00 77.65 81.85 69.69 79.22
2028 75.18 79.91 73.62 79.21 77.84 82.01 69.82 79.44
2029 75.36 80.09 73.77 79.42 78.04 82.16 69.95 79.67
2030 75.53 80.28 73.93 79.63 78.23 82.32 70.08 79.89
2031 75.71 80.46 74.09 79.85 78.43 82.48 70.21 80.11
2032 75.88 80.65 74.25 80.06 78.62 82.64 70.34 80.33
2033 76.06 80.83 74.40 80.27 78.82 82.79 70.48 80.56
2034 76.24 81.02 74.56 80.49 79.01 82.95 70.61 80.78
2035 76.41 81.20 74.72 80.70 79.21 83.11 70.74 81.01
2036 76.59 81.39 74.88 80.92 79.40 83.27 70.87 81.23
2037 76.77 81.58 75.04 81.14 79.60 83.43 71.00 81.46
2038 76.95 81.77 75.20 81.35 79.80 83.58 71.13 81.68
2039 77.13 81.95 75.36 81.57 80.00 83.74 71.27 81.91
2040 77.31 82.14 75.52 81.79 80.20 83.90 71.40 82.14
2041 77.49 82.33 75.68 82.01 80.40 84.06 71.53 82.37
Projection of Life Expectancy at Birth 71
Total Bumiputera Chinese Indian Year
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
2042 77.67 82.52 75.84 82.23 80.60 84.22 71.67 82.60
2043 77.85 82.71 76.01 82.45 80.80 84.38 71.80 82.83
2044 78.03 82.90 76.17 82.67 81.00 84.54 71.93 83.06
2045 78.21 83.09 76.33 82.89 81.20 84.71 72.07 83.29
2046 78.40 83.28 76.49 83.11 81.40 84.87 72.20 83.52
2047 78.58 83.47 76.66 83.33 81.60 85.03 72.34 83.75
2048 78.76 83.67 76.82 83.56 81.80 85.19 72.47 83.99
2049 78.95 83.86 76.98 83.78 82.01 85.35 72.61 84.22
2050 79.13 84.05 77.15 84.00 82.21 85.52 72.74 84.45
In 1980, the LE in Malaysia was 65.0 years,
but by 2015, it had increased 74.50 (male, 72;
female, 77) years.2 The longevity can be attributed
to many factors, including rising living standards,
improved lifestyle and better education, as well as
greater access to quality health services which are
significantly increased in Malaysia. Thus, the
demographic changes, socioeconomic inequalities,
and availability of health factors influence LE.13-16
In Malaysia, the population expansion and
demographic transition since the 1980s were
accompanied by major socioeconomic develop-
ment.17 After the long years of socioeconomic
expansion, Malaysia transformed into a developed
nation. Consequently, the economic development
deter-mines the improvements in social conditions
and increases LE. Increases in LEs have also been
attributed to improvements in sanitation and
access to clean water.18 In Malaysia, access to
improved sanitation reached 96% which is
significantly high among the developing countries
of Asia. An increase in LE was driven mainly by an
improvement in sanitation during the nineteenth
and early twentieth centuries.19
Gender differences in mortality and LE vary
by countries. In most countries, men live shorter
lives than women, sometimes by a margin of as
much as ten years. This study identified that the
LEs for females irrespective of ethnicity would be
higher compared to males in Malaysia. The death
rates for women were found lower than those for
men at all ages. More boys than girls die in infancy
and during each subsequent year of life; mortality
rates for males exceed those for females. As a
result, the gender gap would be widened in this
century. Factors that influence gender differences
in mortality include biological factors such as
hormonal influences on physiology and behaviour
and environmental factors such as cultural
influences on gender differences in health
behaviours. The importance of specific factors may
reflect the environmental context.
The Malaysian Chinese consists of people of
full or partial Chinese- particularly Han Chinese
ancestry who were born in or immigrated to
Malaysia. Most are descendants who arrived
between the early and the mid-20th century.
Malaysia is home to the second largest community
of overseas Chinese in the world after Thailand.
Within Malaysia, they are usually simply referred
to as Chinese and represent the second largest
ethnic group in Malaysia after the ethnic Malay
majority. The ethnic Chinese populations are the
socioeconomically well established middle class
ethnic group and traditionally dominate the
business and commerce sectors of the Malaysian
economy. This study identified that the ethnic
Chinese population especially women live longer
than that of other ethnic groups. Malaysian
Chinese women are more health conscious, and
they are relatively more aware of healthy dietary
habits and give priority to a healthy lifestyle. They
are very particular about their health, and are
active from young to old age, they go for regular
medical check-ups and are physically active, more
hardworking, especially the older generation.
Remarkably, the older people are found more
conscious about their health compared to others
and tend to exercise, eat healthy food and pursue
healthy lifestyles.
CONCLUSIONS
The LEs for male and female population of
Malaysia by ethnic groups were estimated using
exponential growth model up to year 2050. It was
found that the LEs for male and female populations
of Malaysia by ethnic groups showed gradually
increasing trend over time. It was also observed
that population of Malaysia is tending to have a
longer LE. These might be used as predicted LEs
for the male and female population of Malaysia by
ethnic groups for further higher study. The LEs for
male and female population of Malaysia in 2050
72 Journal of The Indian Academy of Geriatrics, Vol. 13, No. 2, June, 2017
will be 79.13 and 84.05 years respectively. Hence it
may be concluded that LEs for female population is
longer than male population in Malaysia. As a
consequence, the population of Malaysia will tend
to experience serious ageing related problems in the
future. Therefore, especially government and policy
makers should have a clear understanding of the
number of aged population to ensure their healthy
environment. More research works are needed in
this area.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are very grateful to the
Laboratory of Computational Statistics and
Operations Research, Institute for Mathematical
Research (INSPEM) and to the University Putra
Malaysia (UPM) for granting a Visiting Scientist
Fellowship to complete this study.
Conflicts of interest: None declared.
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