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The Affect Heuristic
... This development coincided with the increasing interest that researchers devoted to memory processes in decision making (Weber, Goldstein & Busemeyer, 1991). Accordingly, a number of different models emerged assuming that automatic processes of recognition, affect generation and activation of prior knowledge play a central role in behavioral choice (Damasio, 1994;Dougherty et al., 1999;Haidt, 2001;Hogarth, 2001;Klein, 1993Klein, , 1999Lieberman, 2000;Slovic et al., 2002). For example, decisions by experienced actors may often be based on recognition of a situation and identification of learned behavioral rules (Klein, 1999). ...
... These processes are primarily performed by the automatic system and involve quick and simultaneous consideration of multiple pieces of information. Memory processes are also involved in affect-based decision making (e.g., Slovic et al., 2002). Via feedback learning, behavioral options and their consequences can be associated in memory with affective responses. ...
... The hunting horns are blowing more loudly than ever (Gigerenzer, 2004), and more and more strategies are being crammed into the toolbox the decision maker is assumed to carry in his mind. Some of these new entries rely on potential correlates of value, such as affective reactions (Damasio, 1994;Slovic et al., 2002), majority behavior (Bohner et al., 1995), the expertise of communicators (Petty & Cacioppo, 1986), familiarity (Tyszka, 1986) or recognition (Klein, 1993;Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002). Others, such as the Peak-and-End Heuristic (Kahneman et al., 1993) and the Priority Heuristic (Brandstätter et al., 2006), describe operations of the selective processing of values or reasons. ...
We claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and a deliberate system. Second, we show the potential that connectionism offers for modeling processes of decision making and discuss some empirical evidence. Specifically, we posit that the integration of information and the application of a selection rule are governed by the automatic system. The deliberate system is assumed to be responsible for information search, inferences and the modification of the network that the automatic processes act on. Third, we critically evaluate the multiple-strategy approach to decision making. We introduce the basic assumption of an integrative approach stating that individuals apply an all-purpose rule for decisions but use different strategies for information search. Fourth, we develop a connectionist framework that explains the interaction between automatic and deliberate processes and is able to account for choices both at the option and at the strategy level.
... Specifically, due to the more cognitive nature of the decision making for utilitarian products, it follows that consumers likely perceive the different product or brand attributes separately, such that each attribute contributes incrementally to the overall value and product choice (Sheth, Newman and Gross 1991). In contrast, the affect heuristic prompted by hedonic products leads consumers to rely primarily on affect to make choices (Slovic et al. 2002), because it is the more efficient way to make a judgment, in that either positive or negative markers (e.g., product attributes, brand) become a foundation for the outcome or overall evaluation. When people use an affect heuristic, they refer to their affect pool (to various degrees) to make a judgment that is independent of their cognitive judgment (Slovic et al. 2002). ...
... In contrast, the affect heuristic prompted by hedonic products leads consumers to rely primarily on affect to make choices (Slovic et al. 2002), because it is the more efficient way to make a judgment, in that either positive or negative markers (e.g., product attributes, brand) become a foundation for the outcome or overall evaluation. When people use an affect heuristic, they refer to their affect pool (to various degrees) to make a judgment that is independent of their cognitive judgment (Slovic et al. 2002). Thus, when relying on the affect heuristic, consumers do not evaluate different product attributes separately or trade them off against one another to achieve an overall value; they rather form an overall judgment through the heuristic. ...
Service providers and retailers reselling branded have the discretion to set and adapt prices according to customers’ willingness to pay (WTP). Research often notes markup effects, such that WTP increases in response to corporate social responsibility (CSR) and markdown effects, lowering their WTP for corporate social irresponsibility (CSI). Theory suggests attitude changes to (negative) CSI are stronger than to (positive) CSR, but the extent and whether this difference holds for WTP and across various product types are unknown. Using experimental data, an incentive-compatible measure, and an actual purchase, this article reports on three studies that show that consumers mark up WTP for CSR and mark down WTP for CSI. The differential effects arise across brands; compared with WTP for a competitor brand, the acceptable price of a focal CSR/CSI brand is marked down more than it is marked up. Comparing the WTP for a focal brand relative to the average CSR performance of that brand does not produce any within-brand differential effects The evidence also indicates a product type effect: Consumer WTP adaptation for CSR or CSI is stronger for utilitarian than for hedonic products. These findings have implications for service providers, retailers and manufacturing firms, as well as for further research.
... According to Cassotti et al. (2012), positive emotional involvement can significantly mitigate the framing effect. Slovic et al. (2002) and Peters et al. (2006) suggest that emotionally charged decision context can be particularly effective at reducing framing biases. The interplay between framing and emotion may, however, determine very complex effects of decision-making, as underlined in Gosling et al. (2020). ...
This paper takes its cue from the relevance of the framing effect related to behavioral biases associated with economic decision-making. Most attempts to measure financial literacy rely on surveys that include standardized multiple-choice questions. We aim to detect the distortive effect, if any, of the standard questionnaire on the measurement of the level of financial literacy that results from the way questions are expressed. A survey conducted in October 2021 involving 2,500 individuals representative of the Italian population—the worst performer in financial literacy among the G7 countries—made it possible to evaluate whether questions with alternative wording created higher respondent engagement, determined other answers, and improved performance. The descriptive and regression analysis showed that the wording effect mattered in three out of four questions. More engaging words mitigated the gender effect by reducing the probability of women choosing the “I do not know” option. However, while there was evidence of an increase in the percentage of correct answers to individual questions, the overall financial literacy level showed no improvement. The regression analysis found that the likelihood of being financially literate, independently of the type of question, significantly depended on sociodemographic variables (gender, age, geographical area, and level of education) and self-evaluation of digital and economic skills. In addition, knowledge of basic math played a key role. Those who know how to calculate a percentage correctly had a notably higher probability of being financially literate. This evidence has clear policy implications since it highlights the necessity of investing in digital and math education to fill gender and intergenerational literacy gaps.
... Affect heuristics (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) is an intuitive decision-making process (O'Donnell & Evers, 2019). Therefore, the underpinnings of the affect heuristic framework (Slovic et al., 2002) can be useful in understanding the association between lifestyle, proselytism and their affective commitment. Affect heuristic (Epstein, 1994) describes the process by which feeling states help decision makers to attribute the quality of goodness or badness to different options. ...
A foodie’s review about a restaurant will be persuasive as it is an extension of the self-internal consistency emanating from his lifestyle. Narcissism plays a psychological driver and moderates the effect of lifestyle. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the mediating role of proselytization and the moderating role of dietary plan and narcissism on the relationship between lifestyle and affective commitment. Snowball sampling technique from an informal sampling frame was used for data collection. The effect on proselytization is strong for low narcissism in the vegetarian dietary plan, and high narcissism in the non-vegetarian dietary plan condition. The marketing implication is that restaurants and eateries in the hospitality sector should offer foodie reviewers consumption opportunities at debut of new dishes.
... 176. En particulier, l'heuristique affective, qui conduità répondreà une question en fonction de la valence affective de la réponse (Slovic et al., 2002), ou la procédure que Kahneman (2002) appelle choosing by liking, dans laquelle onévalue la valeur des réponses possibles indépendemment l'une de l'autre, sans les comparer directement. 177. ...
Ces notes constituent le dossier d'une enquête menée à l'occasion de la lecture du livre d'Eustace Poulton (1989) "Bias in quantifying judgments". L'objectif était de clarifier la notion de biais en psychophysique, ce qui m'a fait remonter
le temps jusqu'à la notion de "stimulus bias" et aux théories de la mesure en psychophysique, avec Thurstone (1927b) et Stevens (1946, 1957). J'ai ensuite élargi l'enquête aux travaux sur les biais cognitifs des prix Nobel Herbert Simon (1955) et
Daniel Kahneman (2002). Dans le domaine de l'éclairage, ce débat est aujourd'hui alimenté par Steve Fotios. Ma contribution, publiée dans le journal "Light & Engineering", a pour titre : Stimulus range effect in discomfort glare studies (Brémond, 2022).
... Future work should extend the current research to investigate other context-contingent heuristics, beyond goal instrumentality, as possible moderators for the link between processing fluency, language, and online behavior. For example, linguistic fluency effects may also moderated by emotion (e.g., the affect heuristic; Slovic et al., 2002), the perceived expertise or credibility of the writer (e.g., the credibility heuristic; Sundar, 2008), and the perception that time is running out for change (e.g., the scarcity heuristic; Cialdini, 2006). Heuristics are common and powerful cognitive shortcuts that impact information processing, and this work demonstrates the importance of evaluating moderators of fluency effects for predicting behavior in the field. ...
Research on processing fluency and instrumental goal activation suggests people often perceive complex information positively when effort in a task is valued. The current article evaluates this idea in five online petition samples (total N = 1,047,655 petitions and over 200 million words), assessing how the linguistic fluency of a petition associates with support. Consistent with prior work, petitions with lower rates of lexical fluency (fewer common words) associated with more signatures and an increased probability of petitions making a concrete change than those with higher rates of lexical fluency (more common words). Exploratory results suggest other forms of linguistic complexity also associated with petition support: petitions with more analytic writing (e.g., more formal and complex writing patterns) and with less structural fluency (less readable writing) received more signatures than those with less analytic writing and more structural fluency. Controlling for the political leaning of the petition writers as inferred by their language patterns revealed consistent effects. Crucially, the lexical fluency results were maintained across eight languages as well. Various types of linguistic complexity are therefore instrumental to get people to support online causes. Contributions to fluency theory and the psychology of giving are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
Background
How health workers frame their communication about vaccines’ probability of adverse side effects could play an important role in people’s intentions to be vaccinated (e.g., positive frame: side effects are unlikely v. negative frame: there is a chance of side effects). Based on the pragmatic account of framing as implicit advice, we expected that participants would report greater vaccination intentions when a trustworthy physician framed the risks positively (v. negatively), but we expected this effect would be reduced or reversed when the physician was untrustworthy.
Design
In 4 online experiments ( n = 191, snowball sampling and n = 453, 451, and 464 UK residents via Prolific; M age ≈ 34 y, 70% women, 84% White British), we manipulated the trustworthiness of a physician and how they framed the risk of adverse side effects in a scenario (i.e., a chance v. unlikely adverse side effects). Participants reported their vaccination intention, their level of distrust in health care systems, and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs.
Results
Physicians who were trustworthy (v. untrustworthy) consistently led to an increase in vaccination intention, but the way they described adverse side effects mattered too. A positive framing of the risks given by a trustworthy physician consistently led to increased vaccination intention relative to a negative framing, but framing had no effect or the opposite effect when given by an untrustworthy physician. The exception to this trend occurred in unvaccinated individuals in experiment 3, following serious concerns about one of the COVID vaccines. In that study, unvaccinated participants responded more favorably to the negative framing of the trustworthy physician.
Conclusions
Trusted sources should use positive framing to foster vaccination acceptance. However, in a situation of heightened fears, a negative framing—attracting more attention to the risks—might be more effective.
Highlights
How health workers frame their communication about a vaccine’s probability of adverse side effects plays an important role in people’s intentions to be vaccinated. In 4 experiments, we manipulated the trustworthiness of a physician and how the physician framed the risk of adverse side effects of a COVID vaccine. Positive framing given by a trustworthy physician promoted vaccination intention but had null effect or did backfire when given by an untrustworthy physician. The effect occurred over and above participants’ attitude toward the health care system, risk perceptions, and beliefs in COVID misinformation.
Negative interactions between humans and animals are becoming increasingly frequent, as wild habitats shrink and human presence and activities expand throughout the world. Conflicts between people over conservation are one of the outcomes of this increased interaction, with severe consequences for both wildlife and people. Globally, conflicts can arise across diverse ecosystems, species and circumstances. Even if most attention in wildlife‐related conflicts has been on mammals, birds are also often at the centre of such conflicts, but conflict research is still not explicitly present in ornithological literature. Examples of such conflicts include those related to birds and agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and public health interests. Conflicts are often more complex than initial assessments might suggest, involving ecological, economic, cultural, social and political elements. Reflecting the complexity of these issues and their increasing relevance to bird conservation, a British Ornithologists' Union conference was organized in November 2021 that aimed to highlight examples of conflicts that exist between people over birds and their conservation. Building on this conference, we provide here a review of key themes relating to the understanding of conflicts, including the importance of conflict perceptions, the collaboration between multiple disciplines and the different types of knowledge needed to better understand conflicts. We then consider the management of bird conservation conflicts, including the key issues of dealing with uncertainty, the role of technical solutions and the importance of collaboration and building trust, illustrating each theme with real‐world examples. Finally, we outline potential future conflicts around bird conservation and how best to address them proactively.
Interprofessional communication about inflammatory and non-inflammatory musculoskeletal conditions is an important component of assessment and management in paediatric rheumatology. Chronic pain is a feature of some of these conditions which likely influences the extent and type of communication about pain. Research investigating interprofessional communication about paediatric pain is limited but has found that communication is inclusive of the biopsychosocial context of children/adolescents as well as their families. The aim of this ethnographic study was to explore interprofessional communication about children and adolescents with chronic musculoskeletal pain in paediatric rheumatology. We observed forty-five healthcare professionals recruited from three UK paediatric rheumatology teams during thirty multi-disciplinary team meetings. Contemporaneous field notes created during observations were analysed using grounded theory procedures. Core processes identified in interprofessional communication involved describing, making sense of, and managing children/adolescents with pain and their families. Topic areas discussed within these core processes included healthcare professional perceptions about children's and parents' personality characteristics, as well as healthcare professionals' familiarity with families. Underlying diagnoses and possible attributions of pain aetiology were also discussed. Interprofessional narratives included consideration of the potential anxieties and uncertainties about pain within families. Healthcare professionals communicated about strategies for managing expectations about pain. These findings characterise the nuances in interprofessional communication about pain and can be used to inform future work aimed at understanding and optimising the impact of interprofessional communication on clinical decisions and pain outcomes. PERSPECTIVE: This study characterises the processes [series of actions], the function [purpose] and the content [topic areas] of interprofessional communication about paediatric pain in rheumatology settings. These findings should be used to inform interventions targeting both the appropriateness and effectiveness of this communication.
The objective of this research is to help reconcile the mixed findings on the effect of vape advertising campaigns on consumers’ vaping tendency. In a meta-analysis of 43 papers (140 studies, with 77,452 observations; 25,483 (33%) women; M age = 30.5), this research shows that in situations where perceived risk is less salient (e.g., social media vs. traditional advertising, ads using picture-dominant vs. text-dominant cues, adolescents vs. adults, nonsmokers vs. smokers), the positive effect of vape advertising campaigns on consumers’ vaping tendency is stronger. Also, it provides evidence that vape advertising campaigns reduce, rather than increase, smokers’ tendency to quit smoking, which is contradictory to the claims made by vape product manufacturers. We discuss the theoretical contributions of those findings, and provide specific tools that policy makers can use to combat the influence of vape advertising campaigns. Potential limitations and future research directions are also discussed in this paper.
Zusammenfassung
Risiken sind in unserem Leben omnipräsent. Unsere subjektive Einschätzung von Risiken weicht aber erheblich und in systematischer Weise von den objektiv gegebenen Gefahrenlagen ab. Dies führt einerseits zu übertriebenen Ängsten und Sorgen, andererseits aber auch zu unterbliebener Absicherung und Risikovorsorge. In diesem Kapitel werden auf theoretischer und empirischer Basis typische Abweichungen dargestellt und erklärt − sei es im Verkehr, rund um das Eigentum, bei Elementarrisiken oder auch in Bezug auf Kriminalität, Krankheit oder Altern. Auf dieser Basis werden Empfehlungen für einen rationaleren Umgang − ob im privaten oder im beruflichen Kontext − mit dem Thema Risiko, Vorsorge und Versichern abgeleitet.
Drawing upon theories of risk and decision making, we present a theoretical framework for how the emotional attributes of social media content influence risk behaviors. We apply our framework to understanding how COVID-19 vaccination Twitter posts influence acceptance of the vaccine in Peru, the country with the highest relative number of COVID-19 excess deaths. By employing computational methods, topic modeling, and vector autoregressive time series analysis, we show that the prominence of expressed emotions about COVID-19 vaccination in social media content is associated with the daily percentage of Peruvian social media survey respondents who are vaccine-accepting over 231 days. Our findings show that net (positive) sentiment and trust emotions expressed in tweets about COVID-19 are positively associated with vaccine acceptance among survey respondents one day after the post occurs. This study demonstrates that the emotional attributes of social media content, besides veracity or informational attributes, may influence vaccine acceptance for better or worse based on its valence.
Introduction: Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become ubiquitous in medicine, business, manufacturing and transportation, and is entering our personal lives. Public perceptions of AI are often shaped either by admiration for its benefits and possibilities, or by uncertainties, potential threats and fears about this opaque and perceived as mysterious technology. Understanding the public perception of AI, as well as its requirements and attributions, is essential for responsible research and innovation and enables aligning the development and governance of future AI systems with individual and societal needs.
Methods: To contribute to this understanding, we asked 122 participants in Germany how they perceived 38 statements about artificial intelligence in different contexts (personal, economic, industrial, social, cultural, health). We assessed their personal evaluation and the perceived likelihood of these aspects becoming reality.
Results: We visualized the responses in a criticality map that allows the identification of issues that require particular attention from research and policy-making. The results show that the perceived evaluation and the perceived expectations differ considerably between the domains. The aspect perceived as most critical is the fear of cybersecurity threats, which is seen as highly likely and least liked.
Discussion: The diversity of users influenced the evaluation: People with lower trust rated the impact of AI as more positive but less likely. Compared to people with higher trust, they consider certain features and consequences of AI to be more desirable, but they think the impact of AI will be smaller. We conclude that AI is still a “black box” for many. Neither the opportunities nor the risks can yet be adequately assessed, which can lead to biased and irrational control beliefs in the public perception of AI. The article concludes with guidelines for promoting AI literacy to facilitate informed decision-making.
Significance judgements lie at the heart of EIA and provide the basis and justification for overall decision-making. Although the subjective nature of significance judgements is widely recognized, there has been limited research aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of its implications. This paper builds on the growing tradition of exploring learning from psychology in dealing with challenges in EIA practice, in this case, significance judgements. The aim of this research is therefore, to gain a deeper understanding of the psychology underpinning significance judgements. This is achieved by applying 10 concepts from psychology to the four steps in the ‘significance spectrum model’, namely: decide thresholds, make predictions, judge acceptability and consider mitigation. The results suggest that significance judgements should (with underpinning concepts from psychology provided in parentheses) aim for a limited number of key thresholds (paradox of choice); design thresholds with future gains in mind (loss aversion), reconsider probability scoring (possibility and certainty effect); avoid judgements based on limited information (What You See Is All There Is, WHYSIATI); utilise statistical prediction over expert opinion (expert fallacy); communicate carefully (priming, framing and cognitive ease); and consider personal attitudes and biases (affect heuristic).
Regulatory decisions on environmental issues often entail comparing a proposed regulation’s benefits to its costs, usually presuming that the rule should be adopted only if benefits justify costs. Conventional benefits estimation usually defines benefits of a human-mortality-reducing regulation as the product of the number of lives expected to be prolonged and the “value of a statistical life,” usually estimated by averaging citizens’ responses when asked their willingness to pay for a specified small reduction in the probability of their own death. A novel approach to estimating life-prolonging benefits elicits stated preference tradeoffs between national benefits and national costs, a method more compatible with actual regulatory decisions (Finkel and Johnson Environ Law 48:453–476, 2018). All national-tradeoff studies to date presented subjects with only one magnitude, thus not testing within-person scope sensitivity. A U.S. experiment (n = 600) presented ascending or descending sequences of national regulatory benefits (a hypothetical regulation prolongs 10, 100, or 1000 lives) or national regulatory costs ($100 million, $1 billion, or $10 billion). The former yielded decreasing, the latter increasing, values per life when magnitudes increased, without within-frame order effects. Willingness to trade off benefits and costs generally rose or fell less than tenfold overall with a tenfold benefit/cost change, although strict proportionality and super-proportionality also occurred in various sub-groups. Averaged across frames, the implicit value per life prolonged increased with regulatory initiative size, contradicting the premise of invariant life value. Trimmed results mostly matched values of a statistical life used by U.S. federal regulatory agencies. This novel method could expand regulators’ benefit-valuing repertoire.
The aim of this study is to propose a new approach to decision making based on information variety endowment and configuration. The research adopts an exploratory methodology and a qualitative approach, deepening and analyzing both academic and non-academic studies. The study found the existence of general characteristics in the dynamics of human behavior and in that of social phenomena, characters that lead to specific paths of decision and action based on information variety endowment of decision makers. The developed conceptualization needs verification through appropriate tools and tested in empirical settings. The study can support the decision-making process of individuals, organizations, and whole societies - understood as viable systems - in the current dynamic and unpredictable context. This is the first work to propose an absential approach for the framing of managerial problems, recognizing that current methodologies are not capable of effectively responding to uncertainty and unpredictability of the melted result of economic, political, and social environments interaction. Eventually, this is the first work to engage in a mathematical demonstration of decision-making essentiality.
This chapter provides an overall perspective on human decision making to human factors practitioners, developers of decision tools, product designers, and others who are interested in how people make decisions and how decision making might be improved. It presents a broad set of prescriptive and descriptive approaches. The chapter introduces principles of rational choice suggested by classical decision theory, followed by a discussion of research on human decision making which has led to the new perspectives of behavioral decision theory and behavioral economics, and naturalistic decision models. It addresses the topic of decision support and problem solving. The main idea of adaptive decision behavior, or contingent decision behavior, is that an individual decision maker uses different strategies in different situations. The chapter also addresses methods of supporting or improving group decision making. Expert systems are developed to capture knowledge for a very specific and limited domain of human expertise.
We investigated the relations between numeracy and superior judgment and decision making in two large community outreach studies in Holland ( n =5408). In these very highly educated samples (e.g., 30–50% held graduate degrees), the Berlin Numeracy Test was a robust predictor of financial, medical, and metacognitive task performance (i.e., lotteries, intertemporal choice, denominator neglect, and confidence judgments), independent of education, gender, age, and another numeracy assessment. Metacognitive processes partially mediated the link between numeracy and superior performance. More numerate participants performed better because they deliberated more during decision making and more accurately evaluated their judgments (e.g., less overconfidence). Results suggest that well-designed numeracy tests tend to be robust predictors of superior judgment and decision making because they simultaneously assess (1) mathematical competency and (2) metacognitive and self-regulated learning skills.
This paper proposes a revised version of the original Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale developed by Weber, Blais, and Betz (2002) that is shorter and applicable to a {broader range of ages, cultures, and educational levels}. It also provides a French translation of the revised scale. Using multilevel modeling, we investigated the risk-return relationship between apparent risk taking and risk perception in 5 risk domains. The results replicate previously noted differences in reported degree of risk taking and risk perception at the mean level of analysis. The multilevel modeling shows, more interestingly, that within-participants variation in risk taking across the 5 content domains of the scale was about 7 times as large as between-participants variation. We discuss the implications of our findings in terms of the person-situation debate related to risk attitude as a stable trait.
Plain English Summary
In the war for talent, entrepreneurs interacting with job seekers should display passion but not excessively, especially when their venture’s products/services are highly innovative. To help new ventures overcome the severe recruiting challenges they typically face, we study how entrepreneurs can use verbal and nonverbal communication to persuasively communicate their ventures’ unique features to job seekers to enlarge their applicant pools. We asked a sample of individuals on the job market to watch videos of entrepreneurs presenting their ventures’ products/services and evaluate these ventures’ attractiveness as employers. These evaluations indicate that new ventures are considered more attractive employers when entrepreneurs communicate the innovativeness of ventures’ products/services and display moderate passion. Thus, the main implication of this study is that entrepreneurs looking for applicants should convey information about the novelty of their ventures’ products/services and display passion when interacting with job seekers while avoiding excessive outwardly manifestations of passion.
An influential body of recent work on moral psychology has stressed the interconnections among ethics, narrative, and empathy. Yet as Patrick Colm Hogan argues, this work is so vague in its use of the term 'narrative' as to be almost substanceless, and this vagueness is in large part due to the neglect of literary study. Extending his previous work on universal story structures, Hogan argues that we can transform ill-defined intuitions about narrative and ethics into explicit and systematic accounts of the deep connections between moral attitudes and narratives. These connections are, in turn, inseparable from empathy, a concept that Hogan proceeds to clarify and defend against a number of widely read critiques. In the course of the book, Hogan develops and illustrates his arguments through analyses of global narratives, constructing illuminating ethical interpretations of literary works ranging from Shakespeare to Chinese drama and the Bhagavad Gita.
This book presents a comprehensive review of both theories and research on the dynamic nature of human judgment and decision making (JDM). Leading researchers in the fields of JDM, cognitive development, human learning and neuroscience discuss short-term and long-term changes in JDM skills. The authors consider how such skills increase and decline on a developmental scale in children, adolescents and the elderly; how they may be learned; and how JDM skills can be improved and aided. In addition, beyond these behavioral approaches to understanding JDM as a skill, the book provides fascinating new insights from recent evolutionary and neuropsychological approaches. The authors identify opportunities for future research on the acquisition and changing nature of JDM. In a concluding chapter, eminent past presidents of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making provide personal reflections and perspectives on the notion of JDM as a dynamic skill.
This book presents a comprehensive review of both theories and research on the dynamic nature of human judgment and decision making (JDM). Leading researchers in the fields of JDM, cognitive development, human learning and neuroscience discuss short-term and long-term changes in JDM skills. The authors consider how such skills increase and decline on a developmental scale in children, adolescents and the elderly; how they may be learned; and how JDM skills can be improved and aided. In addition, beyond these behavioral approaches to understanding JDM as a skill, the book provides fascinating new insights from recent evolutionary and neuropsychological approaches. The authors identify opportunities for future research on the acquisition and changing nature of JDM. In a concluding chapter, eminent past presidents of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making provide personal reflections and perspectives on the notion of JDM as a dynamic skill.
This book presents a comprehensive review of both theories and research on the dynamic nature of human judgment and decision making (JDM). Leading researchers in the fields of JDM, cognitive development, human learning and neuroscience discuss short-term and long-term changes in JDM skills. The authors consider how such skills increase and decline on a developmental scale in children, adolescents and the elderly; how they may be learned; and how JDM skills can be improved and aided. In addition, beyond these behavioral approaches to understanding JDM as a skill, the book provides fascinating new insights from recent evolutionary and neuropsychological approaches. The authors identify opportunities for future research on the acquisition and changing nature of JDM. In a concluding chapter, eminent past presidents of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making provide personal reflections and perspectives on the notion of JDM as a dynamic skill.
This book presents a comprehensive review of both theories and research on the dynamic nature of human judgment and decision making (JDM). Leading researchers in the fields of JDM, cognitive development, human learning and neuroscience discuss short-term and long-term changes in JDM skills. The authors consider how such skills increase and decline on a developmental scale in children, adolescents and the elderly; how they may be learned; and how JDM skills can be improved and aided. In addition, beyond these behavioral approaches to understanding JDM as a skill, the book provides fascinating new insights from recent evolutionary and neuropsychological approaches. The authors identify opportunities for future research on the acquisition and changing nature of JDM. In a concluding chapter, eminent past presidents of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making provide personal reflections and perspectives on the notion of JDM as a dynamic skill.
In conclusion, rather than present a summary of the preceding chapters, we invited nine eminent past presidents of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM) to provide personal perspectives on the concept of JDM as a dynamic skill. These scholars were not asked to comment on the chapters in this book, but rather to highlight their personal points of contact with the notion of JDM as a dynamic skill. The following perspectives offer historical accounts, and also point to future lines of research.
Shanteau describes how over the years he has highlighted the importance of training and skill acquisition in JDM, but feels “blue” that this view has not been more popular. Wallsten remembers the benefits of learning for JDM performance found in a study that he conducted 30 years ago, and confesses that he has only recently begun to revisit this important finding. Fischhoff points out that a sound understanding of the normative implications of tasks has laid a better foundation for the study of dynamically changing skills, especially in development. Levin and colleagues provide useful examples of their research on the developmental and neurological bases of JDM skills. Reyna highlights how her fuzzy trace theory taps into JDM processes that develop over time and experience, has neurological correlates, and may be evolutionarily adaptive. Baron reveals how he now finds himself in search of the developmental origins of the types of moral heuristics and biases that he has studied during his career. Hogarth shares three steps he has developed during decades of teaching decision making that can help people make better decisions. Klayman reveals that despite decades of studying learning and development of JDM, he still seeks a greater understanding of how decision makers “get that way.” Finally, Birnbaum points to the methodological factors that have limited our understanding of JDM as a skill, and presents a challenge for future researchers: to explain how and why JDM skills change. Overall, the following perspectives provide a rare glimpse of the personalized views of those who have made significant contributions to the field of human JDM.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Every day thousands of individuals need to make critical decisions about their health based on numerical information, yet recent surveys have found that over half the population of the United States is unable to complete basic math problems. How does this lack of numerical ability (also referred to as low numeracy, quantitative illiteracy or statistical illiteracy) impact healthcare? What can be done to help people with low numeracy skills? Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and Decision Making about Health addresses these questions by examining and explaining the impact of quantitative illiteracy on healthcare and in specific healthcare contexts, and discussing what can be done to reduce these healthcare disparities. This book will be a useful resource for professionals in many health fields including academics, policy makers, physicians and other healthcare providers.
Understanding the seismic risk perceptions of emergency managers and first responders is fundamental to entrusting pre-disaster policy-making and emergency communication practices. Therefore, an online survey in Greece was conducted to assess the impact of knowledge, worry, experience, and other variables on seismic risk perceptions and to reveal emergency managers’ and first responders’ opinions on the overall emergency mechanism. The results reveal that, while seismic risk perception is high, important knowledge gaps are detected among members of the emergency and crisis management mechanisms. Poor coordination issues, ambiguity in responsibilities, the content of emergency seismic information (beyond uncertainty), and the need to improve prompt warning methods and modernised communication practices are indicated.
Self-disclosures on online social networks have received increased attention in the last two decades. Researchers from different disciplines investigated manifold influencing variables, and studies applied different theories to explain why many users share very sensitive and personal information despite potential risks and negative consequences, whereas others do not. Oftentimes, it is argued that self-disclosure decisions result from a kind of rational “calculus” of risks and benefits. However, such an assumption of rationality can and has been criticized. Nevertheless, fundamental cognitive and affective mechanisms that underlie self-disclosure decision making on social networks are still under-explored. By building upon previous self-disclosure theories and models, dual-and tripartite-system perspectives of decision making, and former empirical findings, we propose a Tripartite Self-Disclosure Decision (TSDD) model that conceptualizes inner processes of online self-disclosure decision making. Central to this model is the proposed interaction of three neural and cognitive/affective systems: a reflective, an impulsive, and an interoceptive system. We further highlight individual and environmental features, which can impact individuals’ online self-disclosure decisions by (interactively) influencing the proposed inner decision-making processes targeting the aforementioned three systems. Possible short- and long-term consequences are also discussed, which in turn can affect certain model components in subsequent self-disclosure decision situations. By taking such a neurocognitive perspective, we expand current research and models, which helps to better understand potentially risky information sharing on online social networks and can support attempts to prevent users from incautious self-disclosures.
Adolescent decisions, especially in novel contexts, are often guided by affective evaluations (i.e., feelings associated with a stimulus) rather than knowledge of the risks and probabilities of different outcomes. In this study, we used the affect-driven exploration (ADE) model to illustrate how affective evaluations can play a critical role in driving early use of cigarettes, as well as the adaptive function of the resulting experiential learning in informing future affect and cigarette use. We analyzed five waves of data collected from a large, diverse community sample of adolescents who were followed from early to late adolescence (N = 386; 50.9% female; Baseline age = 11.41 ± 0.88 years) during years 2004–2010 to model trajectories of positive affect and risk perceptions (associated with cigarette use) and examined the associations of these trajectories with their self-reported cigarette use and dependence symptoms. Consistent with the ADE model, early initiators reported higher levels of positive affect at baseline, which we argue may have led them to try cigarettes. Notably, most early initiators reported a decline in positive affect over time, suggesting an experience-based shift in affective evaluations associated with cigarette use. Risk perceptions associated with cigarette use did not emerge as a significant predictor of cigarette use or subsequent dependence. Therefore, for deterring adolescent cigarette use, efforts to influence affect (through graphic warning labels and other media) may be more effective than directly influencing risk perceptions. Despite the affective basis for initiating cigarette use, few adolescents engaged in early use (N = 20) or developed symptoms of dependence (N = 25). Majority of those who engaged in early cigarette use showed a decline in positive affect, with corresponding increase in risk perceptions over time. Some early users may indeed continue to engage in cigarette use, but this is likely driven by the addictive properties of the drug. Overall these findings challenge the popular stereotype of impulsive and emotionally reactive behaviors during adolescence, and suggest a more nuanced interpretation of adolescent risk behavior.
This paper critically reviews practical difficulties inherent in some of the existing multi-criteria decision-making methods. The paper also emphasizes why a benchmark decision situation is essential in assessing the capabilities of any multi-criteria decision-making method. The capability is in terms of accuracy in modeling the human decision-making process. Most multi-criteria decision-making methods consist of two important steps. The first step involves elicitation of preferences from the decision-maker on various criteria and alternatives of the problem. In the second step, the preferences defined by the decision-maker are aggregated. The overall score generated after aggregation is used in rank order calculation and final selection. However, if the prescriptions of multi-criteria decision-making method do not resemble actual or real decision of the very same decision-maker, then multi-criteria decision-making method failed in either capturing the true preferences of the decision-maker or in aggregating these preferences as per the expectations of the decision-maker. This paper discusses some of the latest theories of decision-making and provides three important directions to improve the descriptive aspects of multi-criteria decision analysis.
Scholars warn that affective polarization undermines democratic norms and accountability. They speculate that if citizens were less affectively polarized, they would be less likely to endorse norm violations, overlook copartisan politicians’ shortcomings, oppose compromise, adopt their party's views, or misperceive economic conditions. We advance reasons to doubt that affective polarization influences political choices. We support this argument with five experiments that manipulate citizens’ affective polarization with multiple approaches. We then trace the downstream consequences of manipulating citizens’ affective polarization, such as their reactions to information about their actual representatives in Congress. In our experiments (total N = 12,341), we “rewind” the equivalent of three decades of change in affective polarization but find no evidence that these changes influence many political outcomes, only general questions about interpersonal attitudes. Our results suggest caution when assuming that reducing affective polarization would meaningfully bolster democratic norms or accountability.
The project of naturalizing ethics has multiple contributions, from cognitive and moral psychology to primatology, neuroscience or evolutionary theory. One of the strategies for naturalizing ethics has been to argue that moral norms and values can be explained away if we focus on their causal history, if it is possible to offer both an ultimate and proximate causal explanation for them. In this article, I will focus on the contribution of cognitive and moral psychology as a way of offering a proximate causal explanation for moral judgments. I am mostly interested in understanding to what extent these cognitive and psychological questions have some bearing in the fields of ethics and meta-ethics. Does this research programme put at stake the contention that ethics is a manifestation of human rationality? Is it true that finding the cognitive underpinnings of some of our moral judgments vindicates some meta-ethical position, namely some kind of reductionist naturalism? In the end, I will argue that even if scientific disciplines such as cognitive psychology give us a naturalized picture of the moral agent, there seem to be no reasons to think that from a naturalized perspective of the agent capable of perceiving value it must follow the naturalization of value itself.
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