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Evaluate the effect of climate during the
outbreak period on the growth of the
boreal stands over the years
Extract the rate and the extent of impact
of the defoliating insect, and its
interaction with climate, on the boreal
stands
Help understand ecological shifts at a
spatiotemporal scale
The results of this project will help on
future climate to predict a general trend
in the range and severity of future
outbreaks
Understanding complex interactions in forest
ecosystems: climate and insect outbreaks
Anoj Subedi, Miguel Montoro Girona, Philippe Marchand, Hubert Morin, Marie-Josée Fortin
Anoj.Subedi@uqat.ca, @subedi_aj
Introduction
Natural disturbances are major drivers in
forest ecosystems, affecting the structure
and function.
Climate change affect the vulnerability of
host species to defoliation
Spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura
fumiferana),is the main defoliator in the
Eastern Canadian forest
Increase in the severity (% of affected
trees) of SBW during the last century
Expansion, to the north, and increase of
frequency and severity
Changing climate scenarios
Effect of budworm attack on black spruce
Photo by: Lavoie & Montoro Girona
Hypothesis Methods
Contributions
Effect
Climate change
Budworm
outbreak
Increase in
defoliation
Climate
SBW
Reduction
in Black
spruce
growth
+
Mortality
Dendrochronological time
series data integrating more
than 10 diferent projects
from the Ministry
Complementary field works
Climatic data
Climate datasets of
the last century
(WorldClim data)
Study area
Location of study sites in Quebec. The different colors
correspond to the various original datasets
References
Lavoie, J.; Montoro Girona, M.; Morin, H. Vulnerability of Conifer Regeneration to
Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest. Forests 2019, 10,
850.
Montoro Girona, M.; Navarro, L.;Morin, H. A Secret Hidden in the Sediments:
Lepidoptera Scales. Front. Ecol. Evol. 2018, 6, 1-5.
Navarro, L.; Morin, H.; Bergeron, Y.; Girona, M.M. Changes in spatiotemporal patterns
of 20th century spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern Canadian boreal forests. Plant Sci.
2018, 9, 1905–1920.
Identify the influence of different
climate scenarios on the dynamics
of spread and severity of epidemics
Evaluate the trend and the impact
of climate on SBW outbreaks
during the last century
Calibrate & redo the spatiotemporal
patterns
Objectives
Climate change affects the severity
of black spruce epidemics due to the
better synchronization of bud /
budworm emergence
Modeling
Climate normalized growth during
absence/presence of SBW (presence
recorded by MFFP through aerial surveys)
Evaluate the effect of budworm outbreak
of growth as a function of climate
parameters
“Compare the predicted climate effect on
the reduction of growth during an
epidemic”
Dendroecological data