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QUANTIFYING THE TRADE-OFF BETWEEN INCOME STABILITY AND THE NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN A POOLED ANNUITY FUND

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Abstract

The number of people who receive a stable income for life from a closed pooled annuity fund is studied. Income stability is defined as keeping the income within a specified tolerance of the initial income in a fixed proportion of future scenarios. The focus is on quantifying the effect of the number of members, which drives the level of idiosyncratic longevity risk in the fund, on the income stability. To do this, investment returns are held constant, and systematic longevity risk is omitted. An analytical expression that closely approximates the number of fund members who receive a stable income is derived and is seen to be independent of the mortality model. An application of the result is to calculate the length of time for which the pooled annuity fund can provide the desired level of income stability.

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... It is nevertheless possible to generate lifelong incomes by investing in survivor funds over successive time intervals. This offers an alternative to group self-annuitization schemes of Piggott et al. (2005) as well as to modern tontines or pooled annuity funds developed for example by Bernhardt and Donnelly (2021), Chen et al. (2021), and Hieber and Lucas (2022). ...
... Survivor funds offer a single terminal payout to participants. This is in contrast to modern tontines or pooled annuity funds considered for instance by Bernhardt and Donnelly (2021) in the homogeneous case, by Bernhardt and Qu (2021) with heterogeneous contributions and by Chen et al. (2021) with multiple cohorts. Since survivor funds correspond to pure endowment insurance contracts without the life table guarantee and since life annuities can be obtained as a sequence of pure endowment contracts with increasing maturities, lifelong incomes can be generated by investing in survivor funds with different time horizons. ...
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Survivor funds are financial arrangements where participants agree to share the proceeds of a collective investment pool in a predescribed way depending on their survival. This offers investors a way to benefit from mortality credits, boosting financial returns. Following Denuit (2019, ASTIN Bulletin , 49 , 591–617), participants are assumed to adopt the conditional mean risk sharing rule introduced in Denuit and Dhaene (2012, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics , 51 , 265–270) to assess their respective shares in mortality credits. This paper looks at pools of individuals that are heterogeneous in terms of their survival probability and their contributions. Imposing mild conditions, we show that individual risk can be fully diversified if the size of the group tends to infinity. For large groups, we derive simple, hierarchical approximations of the conditional mean risk sharing rule.
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