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Towards integrated assessment of global change
... After the Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987) and the 1992 Rio World Conference on Environment and Development, a second ''wave'' of global scenarios was launched in the context of the sustainability challenge. Some were model-based, and focusing on one issue such as climate change (Rotmans, 1990, Rotmans et al., 1994, but also broader efforts were undertaken, such as the updated work of Meadows et al. (1992) and new integrated studies on such themes as climate change, water scarcity, public health, and landuse (Rotmans and de Vries, 1997). The IPCC series of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios studies became successively more sophisticated (IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 1990; Leggett et al, 1992;Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). ...
... After the Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987) and the 1992 Rio World Conference on Environment and Development, a second ''wave'' of global scenarios was launched in the context of the sustainability challenge. Some were model-based, and focusing on one issue such as climate change (Rotmans, 1990, Rotmans et al., 1994, but also broader efforts were undertaken, such as the updated work of Meadows et al. (1992) and new integrated studies on such themes as climate change, water scarcity, public health, and landuse (Rotmans and de Vries, 1997). The IPCC series of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios studies became successively more sophisticated (IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 1990; Leggett et al, 1992;Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). ...
Unsustainable tendencies in the co-evolution of human and natural systems have stimulated a search for new approaches to understanding complex problems of environment and development. Recently, attention has been drawn to the emergence of a new “sustainability science,” and core questions and research strategies have been proposed. A key challenge of sustainability is to examine the range of plausible future pathways of combined social and environmental systems under conditions of uncertainty, surprise, human choice, and complexity. This requires charting new scientific territory and expanding the current global change research agenda. Scenario analysis—including new participatory and problem-oriented approaches—provides a powerful tool for integrating knowledge, scanning the future in an organized way, and internalizing human choice into sustainability science.
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