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A Propensity-Event Theory of Crime
... The second group of researchers who pursue the study of adolescent sexual behavior are those who argue that sexual behavior during adolescence is one of many possible manifestations of an underlying propensity to engage in risk behavior. 2 For instance, Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) refer to this propensity as low self-control and argue that it leads adolescents to engage in risky behaviors such as drinking, drug use, delinquency, and risky sexual behaviors (see also Busseri et al., 2007;Paternoster & Brame, 1998). ...
... Specifically, adolescents engaged in more sexual behaviors made their peer's sexual activity more comparable to their own in order to justify their sexual behavior. This taps into the argument against the validity of peer influence on behavior in social science research, as outlined Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990), which suggest that estimates of peer effects using perceptions of peer attitudes and behaviors are inaccurate. If this assertion of Whitley (1998) is true, then previous inferences about peer influence on sexual behavior are problematic as well as detrimental to the validity of learning theories, in general. ...
... The most promising course of action to rule out spuriousness associated with peer effects (Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990) would be to separate perceptions from projections/justifications, but at this time there is no known method to do so. Due to the lack of research examining whether actual peer attitudes and a respondent's own attitudes toward sexual behaviors agree, Moore and Rosenthal (1991) have called for future research to determine whether or not actual peer attitudes and peer behaviors are sources of peer influence on sexual behavior or if it is merely perceptions of peer attitudes and behaviors that predict sexual activity. ...
... Opportunity theorists would argue that changes in LLCs would promote changes in offending specialization/versatility largely because of a specialization/diversity. Propensity theorists, on the other hand, would argue that certain enduring individual differences (e.g., self-control) would lead offenders to "self-select" into certain LLCs (see Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). If so, any relationship between LLCs and specialization/ versatility would be spurious because both are assumed to be the consequence of some underlying time-stable trait. ...
... In contrast, a propensity or trait perspective assumes that individuals' motivation for criminal behavior exists along a continuum within any given population and is relatively stable within individuals over time. Such motivation-what criminologists often label as self-control or some variant thereof (Pratt and Cullen 2000)-is assumed to be responsible for all dimensions of criminal behavior, including onset, persistence, variety, frequency, and desistance (see Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990;Rowe, Osgood, and Nicewander 1990). Accordingly, propensity theorists such as Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) generally dismiss the importance of opportunity structures when thinking about crime and instead argue that situations conducive to criminal acts by those with low self-control are abundant (see also Gottfredson and Hirschi 2003;Paternoster and Brame 1998). ...
... Such motivation-what criminologists often label as self-control or some variant thereof (Pratt and Cullen 2000)-is assumed to be responsible for all dimensions of criminal behavior, including onset, persistence, variety, frequency, and desistance (see Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990;Rowe, Osgood, and Nicewander 1990). Accordingly, propensity theorists such as Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) generally dismiss the importance of opportunity structures when thinking about crime and instead argue that situations conducive to criminal acts by those with low self-control are abundant (see also Gottfredson and Hirschi 2003;Paternoster and Brame 1998). Although Gottfredson and Hirschi (2003:10) were willing to concede that "opportunities for particular crimes may vary immensely over time and place," propensity theorists would, nonetheless, argue that criminal opportunities are endogenous to motivation (e.g., low self-control) for two reasons. ...
Research has consistently indicated that most offenders demonstrate diversity over the life course. Even so, recent work suggests that offenders tend to illustrate specialization in the short-term, though this specialization diminishes as the “time window” for examining an offending career increases. To examine why this pattern emerges, the authors investigate the extent to which opportunity structures, as defined by local life circumstances, predict offense specialization/diversity relative to individuals' enduring propensities to offend. The results suggest that both individual-level propensity, as well as changes in local life circumstances (e.g., employment, marriage, drug and alcohol use), impact patterns of offense specialization/ versatility in the short term. The implications of these results for life-course theories of crime, with a particular focus on integrating opportunity and propensity models of criminal behavior, are discussed.
... Whether the pursuit of self-interest leads to criminal or to legal and nondeviant acts (i.e., self-interest pursued without fraud or force) is determined by levels of self-control, opportunities to experience pleasure or avoid pain, and situational constraints, for example, "the sense of immunity experienced by the offender , such things as darkness, anonymity, and vulnerability of the victim" (Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1989:63). More specifically, everything else being equal, those individuals with low levels of self-control are more likely to commit self-interested acts of force or fraud than individuals possessing high levels of selfcontrol . ...
... In general, the theory's ability to survive the rigors of empirical testing (see also Keane, Maxim, and Teevan, 1993; or Benson and Moore, 1992) has been limited. Inconclusive results from empirical tests and the inevitable ripostes (e.g., Gottfredson and Hirschi,1989; Hirschi, 1989), leave the general status of the theory in doubt. 22. Concerning this aspect of the self-control theory, others have noted that the notion of crime declining with age simply because it does leaves something to be desired as theory (see Tittle, 1991). ...
The general theory of crime proposed by Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) claims to be valid across time and space. That claim is assessed through an analysis of three categories of Nigerian crime — normal, political-economic, and riotous. Logical, empirical, and theoretical shortcomings in the theory are identified and discussed. Factually, many individuals who act imprudently (and criminally) in Nigeria do not seem to fit the low self-control characterization required under the theory. Logically and theoretically, unacknowledged value assumptions built into the theory undermine its claim to universality.
... Kiindulópontom az volt, hogy gyermekük szocializációja során a szülők viselkedésében megjelennek a társadalmi kontrollmechanizmusok (fegyelmezés, büntetés, jutalmazás). A szocializáció azonban magában foglalja a normalizációt (így a követendő és elutasítandó értékek és normák kijelölését), azaz a szocializáció eredménye a normalizált, valamint az önkontrollal rendelkező fiatal, aki konform magatartást tanúsít a társadalmi és/vagy családi normákhoz (Foucault 1990, Gottfredson -Hirschi 1989, 1990. Ennek értelmében a későbbiekben kifejtett Travis Hirschi (1969) és F. Ivan Nye (1973) kriminológiai kontrollelméleti modelljeik segítségével, részleges újra értelmezésével négy tipológia került megalkotásra. ...
... La principal medida utilizada por los investigadores (Gottfredson y Hirschi, 1990 Hirschi, , 2003) es el grado de autocontrol del individuo. Aclarése sin embargo que no se trata de afirmar que la existencia de rasgos de personalidad predispone de manera absoluta a la criminalidad (Gottfredson y Hirschi 1989 Hirschi , 1993). Las oportunidades son consideradas en el marco de esta teoría, como factores endógenos de motivación y esto por dos razones: la primera siendo un sesgo de selección, la segunda un sesgo de percepción. ...
... Conversely, inadequate child-rearing practices in the first decade of life will fail to produce a child with self-control. Self-control, however, does not in itself lead inevitably to criminality, but " in the absence of socialization the child will tend to be high on crime potential " (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1989, p. 61, italics in original). Individuals with low self-control are in high likelihood to pursue for immediate and easy gratification (Hechter & Kanazawa, 1997; Hirschi & Gottfredson, 1993, 1994 Nofziger, 2008 ), which may impede their educational and occupational success, destroy constructive interpersonal relationship , and undermine health and well-being (Gibson, Wright, & Tibbetts, 2000). ...
Despite previous gender-based studies of Gottfredson and Hirschi’s self-control theory, limited empirical attempts have been made outside of the Western hemisphere. This study is set to examine the cross-cultural and/or national boundaries generalizability of the self-control concepts in predicting gender differences on theft and violent delinquency in a rarely examined Hong Kong adolescent population. In addition, this study is among the first to investigate the age-effect gender differences on delinquency in the East. Using a cross-sectional design, 1,377 randomly selected native-Chinese secondary school–aged male and female adolescents of nine stratified randomly selected schools were surveyed. Multivariate analyses were used to examine gender differences, with and without controlling for the adolescent age, aside from the general offending propensity among Hong Kong adolescents with respect to their self-control level. Overall findings suggest that the relationship between low self-control indicators and types of delinquency differs across gender. Hence, findings of previous gender-based self-control studies conducted in the West are generally supported in this study. Implications, limitations, and future research directions are outlined.
... The stability of this relationship, they argued, is based on offenders' lack of self-control, which leads directly to criminality, and this lack of self-control increases through adolescence and then diminishes with age. They maintained that "differences in the propensity to engage in criminal acts are established before the high-crime-rate years, persist during those years, and indeed maintain themselves throughout life" (Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1989). They considered this formulation of a stable criminality equivalent to a natural law, making it superfluous to consider models of offender behavior that incorporate four different variables (i.e., participation, frequency, seriousness, and length) into a model. ...
In the 1830s Siméon-Denis Poisson developed the distribution that bears his name, basing it on the binomial distribution.
He used it to show how the inherent variance in jury decisions affected the inferences that could be made about the probability
of conviction in French courts. In recent years there have been a number of examples where researchers have either ignored
or forgotten this inherent variance, and how operations research, in particular mathematical modeling, can be used to incorporate
this variance in analyses. These are described in this paper, as well as other contributions made by operations research to
the study of crime and criminal justice.
This is a chapter form my book "Analytical Criminology" (2020):
ABSTRACT. The first part of this chapter is a detailed exposition of rational choice theory. We discuss its different versions and advocate a wide version that includes all kinds of motivations and beliefs, and subjective utility maximization (people do what they think is best in their situation). We discuss important implications (such as the possibilities to model interdependence), extensions (such as including emotions), applications in criminology and the most important objections against the theory. For example, it is shown that the theory is neither tautological nor circular, that there is no convincing alternative to utility maximization (such as reason-based action), and that allowing all kinds of incentives (i.e. preferences and beliefs) does not make the theory ad hoc or untestable because a basic requirement is that the incentives must be measured with the methods of empirical research if the theory is applied. The conclusion is that the theory is a fruitful foundation for providing micro-macro explanations (chapter 6) and for a critical comparison with selected criminological theories (chapter 7).
Self-report delinquency research has a few major landmarks. During the Second World War, two surveys of self-report delinquency were conducted, one with college students (Porterfield, 1946) and one with the subjects of the Cambridge-Sommerville experiment (Murphy, 1946). In 1955, the first standardized instrument was applied to a representative sample of adolescents and a cumulative scale of delinquency was constructed (Nye & Short, 1958). And, in the late 1970s, the most comprehensive study of the metric properties of self-report delinquency was realized with a complex research design which provided controls for different methods of administration (Hindelang, Hirschi & Weis, 1981). There is, however, another landmark which is often forgotten. At the Syracuse University Conference of 1965 (Hardt & Bodine, 1965), many of the methodological questions concerning self-report delinquency instruments and measures were thoroughly reviewed and recommendations were formulated to improve the measurement of delinquency. One of these recommendations has been forgotten by many authors in the published literature — to provide a detailed description of the data collection procedure.
Sociological theories of crime and delinquency have been criticized for failing to take into account biological and personality factors that may predispose people to antisocial behavior (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1989; Wilson & Herrnstein, 1985). According to these critics, dispositional differences produced by heredity, environmental conditions (e.g., nutrition and lead exposure), and parental behavior emerge and are identifiable in early childhood. It is charged that criminologists who fail to take these dispositional characteristics into account may exaggerate the importance of later social experiences in their explanations of delinquency and crime. Differential association and bonding theories, in particular, have been criticized in this regard.
This study examines juvenile arrest histories of the 1970 birth cohort in Japan, with special reference to the relationship between age and crime. The data consist of official records of juvenile arrests of 7,442 males and 2,584 females, collected at a prefectural police headquarters near Tokyo. Findings include: (1) Age-and-crime relationships vary considerably by offense type and by dimension of criminal career, (2) There are substantial differences that can hardly be attributed to different criminal justice practices in age-and-crime relationships between the United States and Japan, (3) Criminal behavior of school-aged youths in Japan is related with time since school entry in a more consistent fashion than with biological age.
Gottfredson and Hirschi claimed, as part of their general theory of crime, that a child’s criminal propensity, what they called level of self-control, is fairly fixed by age 10. Low self-control children, they further claimed, exhibit greater proclivities for delinquency and analogous behaviors than children with high levels of self-control. They see self-control levels for children at both ends of the spectrum—and their propensities for crime and analogous behaviors—as immutable over the life course. The authors explore the self-control levels, self-reported illegal behavior, and supporting attitudes exhibited by a panel of youths from in six cities at five points in time. Some of our findings substantiated Gottfredson and Hirschi’s claims (e.g., claims linking self-control, sex, and race or ethnicity); however, other findings are at odds with their theory (e.g., the unchanging nature of self-control). The authors review the implications of these findings for self-control theory.
This article examined empirically whether Gottfredson and Hirschi’s (1990) “general theory” explained criminal and imprudent behaviors among a community sample of adults across the age distribution. The findings indicated that low self-control was significantly related with both forms of self-reported offending activity through age fifty. Gottfredson and Hirschi’s claim that their theory explained offending across age, therefore, was generally supported. It is suggested that future empirical tests employ the “general theory” as a causal explanation of adult criminality.
Gottfredson and Hirschi claimed, as part of their general theory of crime, that a child’s criminal propensity, what they called level of self-control, is fairly fixed by age 10. Low self-control children, they further claimed, exhibit greater proclivities for delinquency and analogous behaviors than children with high levels of self-control. They see self-control levels for children at both ends of the spectrum—and their propensities for crime and analogous behaviors—as immutable over the life course. The authors explore the self-control levels, self-reported illegal behavior, and supporting attitudes exhibited by a panel of youths from in six cities at five points in time. Some of our findings substantiated Gottfredson and Hirschi’s claims (e.g., claims linking self-control, sex, and race or ethnicity); however, other findings are at odds with their theory (e.g., the unchanging nature of self-control). The authors review the implications of these findings for self-control theory.
this paper is supported by Criminology Research Council Grant 14/92.
Presents an interactive theory of personality which assumes that there are inborn tendencies that underlie individual differences in personality. 4 such dispositions (temperaments) are identified, and their measurement, similarities in different populations (e.g., twins), and their stability during childhood are discussed. Innate sex differences in personality are also examined and implications for clinical problems (e.g., hyperkinesis and psychopathy) are discussed. (11 p ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)