What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk Engineering and Management
... In our study, we adopted a method based on the approach by Wang and Roush [96], which emphasizes both the likelihood and consequences of extreme weather-related events to assess flood risk. Following Cooper's [97] recommendation, we asked respondents to rank the incidence and severity of floods using a Likert scale, where 1 indicated The analysis is based on a February and March 2023 survey involving 600 severely affected households-300 from each of the two districts-who participated in face-to-face structured interviews (see Figure 2). ...
... In our study, we adopted a method based on the approach by Wang and Roush [96], which emphasizes both the likelihood and consequences of extreme weather-related events to assess flood risk. Following Cooper's [97] recommendation, we asked respondents to rank the incidence and severity of floods using a Likert scale, where 1 indicated low likelihood/severity, and 5 indicated high. ...
This study maps the rural household vulnerability to flood-induced health risks in flood-affected Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan, focusing on the devastating 2022 flood. Using data from 600 households in the severely impacted districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (including Charsadda and Nowshera), this research examines the influence of demographic, socioeconomic, and infrastructural factors on household vulnerability. This study assesses household vulnerability to flooding and health issues using logistic regression. The current study findings revealed that female-headed households, those with younger heads, and families with lower educational levels are particularly vulnerable. Income disparities significantly shape coping capacity, with wealthier households more likely to adopt effective risk-mitigation strategies. Proximity to functioning healthcare facilities emerged as a crucial factor in reducing vulnerability, as these households faced fewer health hazards. Conversely, households in areas where health and water infrastructure were damaged experienced higher risks of disease outbreaks, including cholera and malaria, due to water contamination and inadequate sanitation. This study highlights the urgent need for resilient infrastructure, strengthened public health systems, improved health education, and enhanced water and sanitation services to mitigate flood-induced health risks. Policymakers are urged to sustainable development practices by adopting gender-sensitive disaster management strategies, prioritizing educational initiatives, and fostering community support networks to enhance resilience to future flood events in KPK.
... Not properly accounting for such variances has unfortunately led directly to NASA program failures over the years. When Morton-Thiokol made a few modifications to the heritage Titan III design, "critical functions of load carrying and sealing were combined in the shuttle joint design… (and) great care should have been taken to realize and control the risk created (Wang and Roush, 2000) [14] . " When rubberized O-rings used to seal each field joint (three in all) were routinely exposed to hot combustion gasses, the noted erosion was tragically deemed acceptable simply because no loss of mission or crew had occurred during the previous 26 missions. ...
... Not properly accounting for such variances has unfortunately led directly to NASA program failures over the years. When Morton-Thiokol made a few modifications to the heritage Titan III design, "critical functions of load carrying and sealing were combined in the shuttle joint design… (and) great care should have been taken to realize and control the risk created (Wang and Roush, 2000) [14] . " When rubberized O-rings used to seal each field joint (three in all) were routinely exposed to hot combustion gasses, the noted erosion was tragically deemed acceptable simply because no loss of mission or crew had occurred during the previous 26 missions. ...
This thought paper addresses how relationships between risk management (RM), knowledge management (KM), and decision-making processes interact to achieve successful outcomes in making residual risk decisions. RM and KM may be performed independently in support of programmatic, technical, or safety-related decisions or integrated to perform a “risk and knowledge-informed decision-making framework.” Two well-known National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle program failure scenarios (Challenger and Columbia) are utilized to examine the interaction of these processes, and how uncoupling one or more elements can lead to disjointed, fractured, and less than adequate residual risk decisions.
From these data, a set of heuristics will be formulated to improve and sustain a complex decision-making framework within an organization, with the hope that this paper is provided to organizations beyond NASA as they undertake high-risk projects.
... As risks become realities, extra costs and longer schedules are Chapter 2: Engineering Design -41 incurred and in the worst case projects can ultimately fail. Successfully managing risks them requires achieving a reduction in the levels of uncertainty associated, such that they are acceptable to the parties, and particularly investors, concerned (Wang and Roush, 2000). ...
... In some cases higher risk ventures may be deemed acceptable to an investor or company, as other perceived commercial benefits, such as competitive advantage, may be seen to exist. Projects are also fallible to technical risks, the result of which is the artefact not performing as it intended (Wang and Roush, 2000). It may sometimes be possible to correct this by the further investment of time and money however this is likely to increase the commercial risks. ...
... This study is valuable as a post-accident analysis of the causes; however, it does not propose any concrete measures to prevent such accidents from occurring in the future. Major risk-analysis techniques (including FMEA [13] and FTA [13] are discussed in [19], [20], and [21]. Most studies analyzing failure are based on FMEA or FTA. ...
... In order to understand how risk is perceived by farmers, it is important to measure the probability of a risky event occurring and its consequences. Evaluating risk gives an opinion about how likely something is to go wrong and what its consequences will be (Wang and Roush, 2000). A risk matrix method was used to determine farmers'perception related to environmental effects and its induced risks (Cooper et al., 2005). ...
This study aims to determine the factors that affect dairy farmers' risk attitudes and their perceptions towards environmental risks in Northwest Turkey. By the proportional sampling method, data were collected from 381 dairy farmers. The survey was performed from September 2020 to June 2021. The study data were evaluated by descriptive statistics, risk matrix method, equally likely certainty equivalent method and probit model. In this study, severe storm, excessive rainfall/flood, livestock diseases, high temperature and drought was posed an important risk for dairy farmers. The majority of them showed risk aversion behaviour. Age, education level, household size, dairy farming experience, the number of dairy cattle, the land ownership status, livestock insurance and access of agricultural credits had a significant effect on risk perceptions and attitudes of dairy farmers. As a result, these findings are expected to ensure contribution to rural development, province and region economy, insurance institutions, agricultural policy makers, and further emphasizing the importance of environmental risks in dairy farming activity
... ETA is an inductive risk analysis method that enables both qualitative and quantitative evaluations [34]. The analysis process of ETA starts with the occurrence of a specific initiating event (IE). ...
Ship engine room fire is one of the major dangers that threaten the safety of the ships. An effective firefighting in the engine room is critical to prevent possible destructive consequences on-board ship. Fire detection and firefighting systems, which are designed for an effective fire prevention on-board ship, need to work flawlessly. In order to achieve this, the deficiencies of the designed systems must be determined and necessary control actions must be taken. In this study, failure probabilities of fire detection and firefighting systems on-board ship is calculated by event tree analysis and fuzzy logic environment. The possible consequences that may be encountered in case the systems fail under various scenarios are determined. Solutions have been proposed in order to minimize the risk that may arise by reducing the failure probability of each system. The outcome of this paper will be utilised by safety engineers, shipping companies and safety inspectors to prevent potential engine room fires.
... Measuring risk provides an insight into how likely something may get wrong (likelihood) and the subsequent outcome [25]. In the present study, risks are categorized into four types: (i) Price risk, (ii) climate risk, (iii) biological risk, and (iv) financial risk. ...
Arable farming is an intrinsically risky enterprise. Therefore, managing risks and uncertainties in agriculture is very important as it affects all sectors of the economy of a developing country like Pakistan. To do so, a whole suite of options is available to the farming community to safeguard against any type of risk. However, farmers’ behavior of the concurrent adoption of multiple risk management tools is largely ignored in previous studies and has formed the rationale for this research. Thus, the current study is intended to investigate farmers’ decisions of adopting risk management strategies (contract farming, off-farm income diversification, and farm credit use) and to examine the impacts of a variety of factors on farmers’ risk management decisions. The present study is carried out in four districts of Punjab province, Pakistan with a focus on hybrid maize growers. A multivariate probit model is used to evaluate the impacts of independent variables on growers’ choices of adopting contract farming, off-farm income diversification, and farm credit use to manage farm risks keeping in view the potential for the concurrent adoption of these risk management strategies. Results show that 78% of farmers are risk-averse and hence ready to manage risks. The top risk faced by farmers is price risk followed by biological, climatic, and financial risks. Contract farming is the most popular strategy (61% farmers) followed by off-farm income diversification (49% farmers), and the use of farm credit (42% farmers). The findings also reveal that the decisions of adopting risk management strategies are interlinked while the adoption of one risk management tool complements farmers’ decision to adopt other risk management strategies. In addition, the risk management strategies’ adoption choices are affected by the number of factors including socioeconomic characteristics, farmers’ risk perceptions about risk sources, and their attitude towards risk. The study recommends the provision of timely information (climatic, extension) along with easy access to farm credit and the streamlining of contractual arrangements.
... Household productive assets selling such as car, 234 motorcycle, cycle and various home appliances for managing their farming risks after floods 235 formally known as management strategy as depilation of assets as explained in equation (6) 236 denoting 1 for selling assets otherwise 0. In managing farming risks after floods households need 237 money for maintaining farming activities so they search off-farm sources of income such as 238 sending their family member abroad for remittances or working daily labor in neighboring 239 locality. In management strategy these above mentioned measures known as diversification as 240 indicated in equation (7) if adopted diversification illustrated 1 otherwise 0. If farming 241 households reduces their non-food and food expenditures for managing farming risks known in 242 scenario of management strategy as reducing consumption if adopted indicated as 1 otherwise 0 243 as illustrated in equation (8) Risk perception as analyzing risks assessments (Wang and Roush, 2000), questions were asked 248 from the respondents for indicating the severity and incidence from risk sources and mentioning 249 the proper probability or subjective weights of Likert scale 5 points. For appropriate use of 250 respondent's response their risks were converted in low or high (Lansdowne, 1999;Cooper et al., 251 5. Low risk perception indicated in unshaded area while high risk with shaded area as illustrated 253 in figure 3. ...
Climate induced disasters more specifically the floods have caused severe damages to agriculture sector in Pakistan. These climatic risks have constrained farming community to adopt numerous risk management strategies to overcoming such risks. This research work attempted to examine the association of risk management tools with farmer’s perception of risk, risk averse attitude and various socioeconomic factors. The study employed the sample data of 398 farmers from flood prone two districts of Punjab, Pakistan. To investigate the association of dependent and independent variables this study used the multivariate probit model. Results of the study illustrated as heavy rains and floods consider not significant source of risk for large farmers in the study area while for small farmer these indicated as high risks as most of small farmers were more risk averse. Estimates of multivariate probit model interpreted as age of farmer, heavy rains risk perception and landholding size were positively relationship with risk management tool of depletion of assets. Farmers education, off-farm income, age and risk averse attitude of farmer were positive whereas experience of farming were negatively linked with reduction of consumption. Furthermore, experience of farming, risk averse attitude, heavy rains and floods risk perception were positively association with diversification adoption. Flood prone farming community of the study area is more vulnerable to these climatic risks and also relying traditional strategies for risk management. There is need of some specific agriculture base measure such as crop insurance, extending formal credit and flood base measure as pre-flood warning system, flood rescue management and post flood rehabilitation to overcome these climatic risks.
... A fault tree is a logical diagram, which reflects a relation between a specific undesirable Risk events falling under a specific category of risk and having an impact on the project objective and failures of the component of the system. An undesirable event is first defined and casual relationships of the failures leading to that event are then identified (Aven, 1992;Wang and Roush, 2000;Bedford andCooke, 2001, Thomas, 2002 It is to be mentioned that the module that have been developed are of representative in nature and thus may not be exact. However, efforts were made to put into as much possible factors as can be on basis of the scope and objectives of the research work. ...
During last two decades a large number of transport sector projects have been executed through the Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode in India. Since the period of execution and operations of these infrastructure projects are usually long enough, their intricacies are also much more. This is more so in a country like India where culture of PPP projects had just started in late 1990s. The vague nature of criticalities associated with these projects compound with inexperienced project management has compelled many researchers to go for finding better path of managing these projects by applying methods like AHP, Fuzzy logic and neural networks. In this paper five simple representative fuzzy logic modules have been framed for determining probabilities of some critical events, results from which have been further refined with the Delphi process. For convergence of crisp value in Delphi process ‘10% + Mode value’ has been considered as the criteria. Validation of the developed modules have been done with data collected through questionnaires survey as part of the research. Analysis of data from some surveyed case study projects through our developed modules shows that in India managing the “O & M risk” is most vulnerable as of now.
... Assessing farmer risk perception Wang and Roush (2000) indicated risk perception, an insight scenario in viewing the way of something going wrong and its upcoming cost. The product of likelihood and its upcoming outcomes formally ranking risk elaborated as a risk factor (Cooper et al. 2005). ...
Farming community confronted with sundry type of risks while production and environmental risks are more significant. Farms management decisions and operations are considerably influenced by farmers’ perceptions and attitude to risks. Risk management issues specific to cereals crops not properly focused in developing countries specifically to Pakistan, so this gap tried to address in this study. This research work was spotlighted to quantify farmers’ perception and attitude of diverse form of risks toward rice crop in Pakistan. The present study used cross-sectional data of 450 rice farmers categorized as low, medium, and high production base six rice districts of Punjab, Pakistan. In attempting to identify farmers attitude to risk, the study used Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent approach, as farmers’ perception were ranked in four catastrophic risk basis, rice diseases, high input prices, drought, and heavy rainfall and hail, by risk matrix. In estimating the factors influencing farmers’ attitude and perceptions to risk, the study used Probit model. Farmers believe heavy rainfall and hails, high input prices, drought, and rice disease major threats for rice crop while mostly farmer is risk-averse behavior as indicated in the results of the study. Estimates of the study signified as education, gender, size of farm, religious, age, credit, off-farm income, farmer livestock, and experience of farming significantly influences farmer risk perception and risk attitude. This research provided applied and suitable investigation for farming community, extension services, researchers, agricultural policymakers, and insurance institutions. Farmers confronting risk and their attitude need to understand by researcher and policymakers’ access them accurate information regarding sophisticated tools of risk management and risks to make sure the provision of advance extension services and agricultural finance. In formulating applied policy measures, it is prerequisite for researchers and policymakers to accurate understanding of local environmental conditions, crop-related threats, and farmers’ perceptions and attitude.
... They describe static links between the elementary failures and the system failure. This class of formalisms include Event Trees (ET) [105], Fault Trees (FT) [80], and Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD) [80]. The mostly-used in safety studies of industrial systems are FTs and RBDs. ...
A Data Center (DC) is a building whose purpose is to host IT devices to provide different internet services. To ensure constant operation of these devices, energy is provided by the electrical system, and to keep them at a constant temperature, a cooling system is necessary. Each of these needs must be ensured continuously, because the consequence of breakdown of one of them leads to an unavailability of the whole DC system, and this can be fatal for a company.In our Knowledge, there exists no safety and performance studies’, taking into account the whole DC system with the different interactions between its sub-systems. The existing analysis studies are partial and focus only on one sub-system, sometimes two. The main objective of this thesis is to contribute to the safety analysis of a DC system. To achieve this purpose, we study, first, each DC sub-system (electrical, thermal and network) separately, in order to define their characteristics. Each DC sub-system is a production system and consists of combinations of components that transform entrance supplies (energy for the electrical system, air flow for the thermal one, and packets for the network one) into exits, which can be internet services. Currently the existing safety analysis methods for these kinds of systems are inadequate, because the safety analysis must take into account not only the internal state of each component, but also the different production flows circulating between components. In this thesis, we consider a new modeling methodology called Production Trees (PT) which allows modeling the relationship between the components of a system with a particular attention to the flows circulating between these components.The PT modeling technique allows dealing with one kind of flow at once. Thus its application on the electrical sub-system is suitable, because there is only one kind of flows (the electric current). However, when there are dependencies between sub-systems, as in thermal and network sub-systems, different kinds of flows need to be taken into account, making the application of the PT modeling technique inadequate. Therefore, we extend this technique to deal with dependencies between the different kinds of flows in the DC. Accordingly it is easy to assess the different safety indicators of the global DC system, taking into account the interactions between its sub-systems. Moreover we make some performance statistics. We validate the results of our approach by comparing them to those obtained by a simulation tool that we have implemented based on Queuing Network theory.So far, Production Trees models are not tool supported. Therefore we propose a solution method based on the Probability Distribution of Capacity (PDC) of flows circulating in the DC system. We implement also the PT model using the AltaRica 3.0 modeling language, and use its dedicated stochastic simulator to estimate the reliability indices of the system. This is very important to compare and validate the obtained results with our assessment method. In parallel, we develop a tool which implements the PT solution algorithm with an interactive graphical interface, which allows creating, editing and analyzing PT models. The tool allows also displaying the results, and generates an AltaRica code, which can be subsequently analyzed using the stochastic simulator of AltaRica 3.0 tool.
... Performance-Based Contract · vii, x, xii, xiii, xv, 3,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,15,16,33,46,48,49,51,52,53,55,56,57,59,61,63,64,65,67,68,69,73,143,144,145,149,173,175,177,184,185,199,200,201,202,203,204,205,206,207,209 ...
This research derives a methodology for the prediction of effects of the performance guarantees that are set out for a Performance-Based Contract (PBC) considering existing or predicted aircraft system performance. Several problems are experienced amongst transitions from product-driven to performance-driven contracting which can be both experienced by the purchases and the supplier. Arguably the most important issue is through ensuring that the supplier has effective foresight of system requirements and performance correlated with the impact of guarantees defined within that contract.
This research proposes a novel model of decision-support for military aviation PBC evaluation. The model gives better insight in some counter-intuitive effects and provides a justification for more holistic simulation and optimisation. These findings enable governments and suppliers to better manage risk and costs associated with complex and high-value contracts.
... Early decisions can determine almost 80% of the product costs (determined costs), at a stage where knowledge about the product, customer and the processes involved is low or vague, and the actual development costs (incurred costs) are low [30]. For this reason it is important to improve the quality of early stage decisions building them on a shared knowledge base and on past experiences. ...
... Since only three factors were examined in this study, the fourth column in the OA was left empty. Orthogonality is not lost by maintaining one or more columns of an array empty [33]. Taguchi's OA are used to estimate main effects using only a few experimental runs. ...
Taguchi statistical design, an orthogonal array (OA) method, was used to study the impact of the COD/SO42− ratio, hydraulic retention time (HRT) and linoleic acid (LA) concentration on sulfate (SO42−) reduction in an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor using glucose as the electron donor. Based on the OA, optimum condition for maximum SO42− reduction was evaluated. Increasing the COD/SO42− ratio and HRT caused decreasing SO42− reduction while increased SO42− reduction was observed with increasing LA concentration (1 g L−1). In control (not fed LA) cultures, higher SO42− reduction (87% ± 3%) was observed at a low COD/SO42− ratio of 0.8. This indicates that increasing SO42− reduction was observed at increasing SO42− loading rates. In general, results from this study reveal that limiting the substrate concentration with high SO42− levels (low COD/SO42− ratio) favors high SO42− removal. Surface plots were used to evaluate the significant interactions between the experimental factors. Accuracy of the model was verified using an analysis of residuals. Optimum conditions for maximum SO42− reduction (97.61%) were observed at a COD/SO42− ratio of 0.8 (level 1), 12 h HRT (level 1) together with 1000 mg L−1 LA addition (level 3). In general, the Taguchi OA provided a useful approach for predicting the percent SO42− reduction in inhibited mixed anaerobic cultures within the factor levels investigated.
... The fsv is the failure severity value for the individual failure. A variety of failure severity values from sources such as NASA [24], FMEA [26], and Risk Engineering [27] were studied to determine the most suitable definitions to record into the repository. The selected failure severity value definitions are shown in Table 3. ...
This study focuses specifically on the relationship between function and risk in early design by presenting a mathematical mapping from product function to likelihood and consequence risk assessments that can be used in the conceptual design phase. An investigation of a spacecraft orientation subsystem is used to demonstrate the proposed mappings. The risk assessment presented in this paper is a tool that will aid designers by identifying risks as well as reducing the subjectivity of the likelihood and consequence value from a risk element, provide four key risk element properties (design parameter, failure mode, likelihood, and consequence) for numerous risk elements with a simple calculation, and provide a means for inexperienced designers to effectively address risk in the conceptual design phase. The investigation demonstrates that the method presented in this paper is a useful tool for preliminary identification and assessment of product risks. 1 INTRODUCTION As NASA is getting ready to retire the Space Shuttle, and starting the designs for spacecraft for the challenging new missions to explore the moon and Mars, the necessity for proper and efficient risk assessment and management methods and tools is surfacing to the top of the priority list. Investigations into the past two Space Shuttle accidents revealed that the knowledge of the potential for both accidents was there. Cataloguing and communication of this knowledge and the potential risks associated with them is critical to prevent further accidents. Furthermore, early identification of risk increases the safety of these systems while also reducing cost of risk mitigation efforts, therefore a risk assessment tool that allows for early identification of product risk is greatly needed.
In this chapter, a method is proposed for promoting ICT engineering safety learning from crisis management. In particular, ICT engineering arena human factors play a crucial role in promoting ICT system safety. The Tokyo stock exchange was crushed on the November 01, 2005, by an operation error, which had a severe impact on the global. The human factors (operator error, maintenance engineers’ error, etc.) cause severe impacts on not only ICT systems but also social systems (nuclear plant systems, transportation systems, etc.). In addition, the progress of ICT technologies (i.e., cloud, virtual, and network technology) inevitably shifts ICT systems into complexity interacting with tightly coupling domains. This trend places human factors above other elements to promote safety more than ever. The emergent property interaction between ICT and human conduct should be dealt with to promote system safety. Crisis management treats holistic property over partial components. The author introduces a human error framework to promote a holistic view to manage system failures. An application example of ICT human error exhibits the effectiveness of this methodology.
A method is presented for mitigating system failures. Current state-of-the-art methodologies and frameworks have strength as a common language to understand system failures holistically with various stakeholders. On the other hand, there is a shortcoming in quantitative aspects. This is the major obstacle to assessing the effectiveness of various measures to mitigate system risk. To overcome this shortcoming, this chapter expresses system risk numerically through coupling and interaction factors between system configuration elements as well as system failures frequency rate, these three numerical numbers (i.e., coupling, interaction, and frequency) create three-dimensional space, and measuring its trajectory through time visualize system risk trends which are the targets to create effective preventative measures to system failures. A root cause of a system failure is discovered by using a System Dynamics technique to a trajectory of a system risk location, then based upon the root cause, effective countermeasures are extracted. Lastly, this methodology is applied to the system failure cases with various ICT systems, and countermeasures are extracted. An application example of ICT system failures exhibits the effectiveness of this methodology.
This chapter investigates current methodologies for failure. A survey of current troubleshooting and risk analysis methodologies shows that the majority of approaches are element-reductive and have limited effectiveness in their application. In the field of social systems science, the author has examined the Normal Accident Theory (Perrow), Man-made Disaster (Turner and Pidgeon), Heinrich’s law, and the “normalized deviance effect” as the cause of space shuttle accidents. As a result, it was found that although they attempt to understand system failures from a broader perspective than troubleshooting and risk analysis methodologies, the models are abstract and difficult to apply to real-world system failures. The self-organization approach is another important contribution from the field of cybernetics, but it is difficult to apply to reality. Finally, the warnings from our predecessors pointed out the importance of the viewpoints from which we look at the world and the essentials of decision-making that were full of insights. In summary, the author pointed out the following three issues with the current methodology:
It does not address the worldviews of multiple stakeholders.
It does not address emergent failures.
It does not address the dynamic behavior of the system to avoid the normalized deviance effect.
The relationship between decision theory and the theory of natural selection in evolutionary biology offers a fertile ground for philosophical inquiry. A topic that has recently been addressed in the philosophical literature is the connection between decision-theoretic and biological discussions of risk. The paper adds to this literature by drawing attention to a distinction between two different notions of risk originating in the economic literature and by exploring their relationship in a biological context. More specifically, the paper shows that the two notions of risk can part ways in models of risk-sensitive foraging theory. The paper also draws attention to an important difference in contemporary explanations of the apparent lack of empirical success of rational choice theory and risk-sensitive foraging theory.
Market risk management has an important role in the development of agricultural businesses (farms and agribusiness enterprises). Researchers have a variety of methods available to assess and manage market risk events. Although many studies have been conducted on risk management, there is still a research gap, not only in specific sectors of agriculture, but also for specific categories of risk. This is due to the fact that the agricultural sector is diverse and in addition to the market risk, it is threatened by production risk, financing risk, legal risk and human resources risk. The purpose of the study is to highlight the aggressiveness of market risk events and their management. In this study, the qualitative and quantitative method was applied to assess the market risk in intensive poultry breeding and production farms, for the marketing of eggs and meat. The study was conducted in the Republic of Kosovo. The results of the study familiarize farmers with the levels and aggressiveness of market risk events. Finally, responses to market risk (market risk management strategies) are recommended.
This paper describes the development of a Dynamic Risk Advisor to improve safety of operations in fleet marine construction and production oil and gas vessels, well, and subsea equipment in process safety management, providing rig management onshore and offshore tools to assess health, safety, and environment (HSE) performance in real time. This tool uses the bowtie methodology, and provides a useful framework to present a risk ‘picture’ and to satisfy management of health and safety at work regulations. The focus of the methodology is the relationship between safeguards (control systems/equipment, process controls, and human factors) and an overview of the safety process monitoring in a simple and visual form. As facilities and equipment age, those safeguards may become less effective or degraded (different from the condition at the moment of risk assessment creation/revision), risks may increase and that is why they must be monitored using an effective, continuous, and temporal-aware method. Ocyan and Viasat/Intelie created a solution to identify and analyse the hazards dynamically (in real time) using the LIVE streaming data platform, providing an interface that allows the client to manage the current risk profile of their assets using a bowtie diagram. Additionally, this also provides a way for the user to assess the effect of degraded safeguards on complex operations in real time, by monitoring the actual residual risk. The study started in 2019 and was developed together with the Ocyan HSE team and was extended to all fleet due to the positive results. The tool can be accessed from mobile phones and tablets.
In developing countries, particularly in agrarian economies like Pakistan, agricultural production is severely affected by successive incidences of adverse catastrophic risks. Inadequate and limited risk management measures from farming community to overcome such severe financial, production, and marketing risks not enough so need of adoption farm-based feasible risk management strategies. In addressing this research gap, this study investigated the potential association and implementing synchronized agricultural credit and diversification adoption to catastrophic risk manage for wheat production in Punjab, Pakistan. The study used the data of 480 wheat farmers’ respondents and employed multinomial and bivariate probit regression models for empirical analysis. Empirical estimates illustrated the significant association in adoption of multiple risk management strategies as addressing the adoption single risk management strategy motivates farmers to adopt another strategy at same time. Furthermore, results also indicated as farmer schooling, age, family return, ownership of land, farm size, and farmer risk oppose character were highlighted the most influenced features for adopting various risk management strategies. Policy makers and state-based authorities can be assisted by these outcomes to evaluating plans of risk management and willingness of farmer in accept government supported regarding implementation of these catastrophic risk managing strategies.
Catastrophic risks caused severe affects on agricultural production particularly in developing countries due to consecutive occurrence of unfavorable climate events. Farmers adopt risk management strategies to minimize marketing, production and financial risks in agriculture. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential association and implementing synchronized agricultural credit and diversification adoption to catastrophic risk manage for wheat production in Punjab, Pakistan. This study used stratified random sampling technique for collecting data of 480 wheat farmers’ respondents from production based categorized six districts of Punjab Pakistan. Multinomial and bivariate probit regression models were used in the study to examine the effects of farm and social feathers, disastrous risks farmers view and their attitude to sources of risk moreover potential relationship in agricultural credit and diversification as risk management strategy. Estimates of the study indicated the association in risk management strategies adoption while adopting single risk management strategy motivates farmers to adopt another strategy at same time. Furthermore, findings also indicated as farmer schooling, age, family return, ownership of land, farm size and farmer risk oppose character were highlighted the most influenced features for adopting various risk management strategies. Policy makers and state based authorities can be assisted by the accumulated information of multinomial and bivariate probit regression models in evaluating plans of risk management and willingness of farmer in accept government supported risk managing strategies in incidence of traditional practices for managing farmhouse risk.
Climate induced disasters, more specifically floods, have caused severe damage to the agriculture sector in Pakistan. These climatic risks have constrained the farming community to adopt risk management strategies to overcome such climate change risks. This research work attempted to examine the association of risk management tools with farmers’ perception of risk, risk averse attitude, and various socioeconomic factors. The study has employed the sample data of 398 farmers from two high-risk flood-prone districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The multivariate probit model was used in this study to investigate the association of dependent and independent variables. The findings of the study indicated that small farmers consider heavy rains and floods severe risks to their agricultural production and are more risk averse than large farmers. Estimates of a multivariate probit model interpreted as age of farmer (0.036), heavy rains risk perception (0.597), and landholding size (0.114) were positively related with the risk management tool of depletion of assets. Farmers’ education (0.056), off-farm income (3.47), age (0.018), and risk averse attitude of farmer (0.687) were positive, whereas experience of farming (–0.037) was negatively linked with reduction of consumption. Furthermore, experience of farming (0.005), risk averse attitude (0.493), heavy rains (0.481), and flood risk perception (0.536) were positively related with diversification adoption. The flood-prone farming community is more vulnerable to these climatic risks and rely on traditional strategies for risk management. There is a need to adopt crop diversification based on developing research capacity for innovative crop varieties having resistance to floods and climate change affects. Some significant policy measures, such as a more resilient scenario of climate change and floods, need to stimulate activities of enterprise diversification, opportunities of diversifying employment, and strengthening activities of off-farm employment for the sound livelihood of flood-prone farmers and to minimize severe affects of climatic risks.
It is useful to examine the safety of a strategic facility based on a multi-hazard approach, considering the extreme events the facility in question could be subjected to during its lifetime. This paper introduces a probabilistic model, based on the algebra of events, for a multi-hazard risk associated with extreme events (e.g., natural, climatological, environmental, and biological, etc.). The probabilistic multi-hazard assessment (PMHA) of the risk is a key issue in structural and environmental safety. A basic characteristic of a probability-based multi-hazard model is that it does not generate a single point estimate, but it rather produces a hazard curve. In the present paper, the annual risk is calculated using a probability-based multi-hazard model totally constructed with the algebra of events and with the aggregation of the multi-hazard curves. The PMHA model is based on the total probability theorem. It grants a more reliable practice by allowing key stakeholders to make risk-informed choices rather than simply relying on traditional deterministic single hazard estimates of risk, with a brief description of uncertainty. Two illustrative applications were performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the PMHA approach: (1) a strategic structure subjected to three independent events: “flooding”, “earthquake”, and “blast”; (2) the earthquake risk of a nuclear site subjected to two dependent events: “long duration” and “high magnitude” earthquake loads. The hazards fragilities are computed for the two examples and implemented in the framework of a multi-hazard approach leading to the estimation of the annual risk of failure.
Collision accident remains a big threat to coastal water transportation operation. Occurrence of a collision event exposes vessel owners and operators as well as the public to risk. The nature of the threat can be worrisome; it may lead to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, and injuries. This makes hybrid analysis of accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios through stochastic tools very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of the environmental. The study involves a predictive model for collision risk and mitigation option for aversion of collision incident. Accident frequency and consequence are obtained using probability tools. Validity of the result is checked with reliability tools. Findings of the study were checked with subsystem and uncertainty risk-contributing factors in order to arrive at a sustainable decision support for collision aversion for inland water transportation. This chapter discusses the result and validation of implementation of the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways.
Mobile harbor cranes are largely used due to their flexibility and capacity to move heavy loads in ports, nonetheless they are potential causes of major acidentes, and deaths. With that in mind, this study has the aim to better comprehend the security involved in the operation of mobile harbor cranes in order to prevent accidents. For this purpose, a brief overview about the methods of risk analysis was conducted and, then, an Occupational Risk Management (ORM) was developed to identify, assess and control the risks involved in mobile harbor cranes, in a practical and direct manner. This study becomes relevant given the importance of minimizing the risks to avoid accidents, pauses and undesirable loses in the labor place, as well as to meet the new regulatory standards.
Safety and security are among the major basic needs for the public in daily life and transportation plays a crucial role in satisfying this need. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) data, estimates of 1.2 million people worldwide died as a result of road traffic injuries in 2013 and it is estimated that road traffic injuries will be the 6th leading cause of death by 2030. Among the various types of road traffic injuries, accidents between trains and road vehicles are the deadliest and are associated with high cost of accidents. As Railway transportation continues to be an important piece to the overall national transportation puzzle in Ethiopia and as congestion continues to increase on the nation's roadways, commuters continue to flock to public transit as an alternative transportation mode. In Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit, there are over 20 level crossings, this represent a significant safety hazard to both road and rail users. In this paper, we used safety demonstration by complete system analysis to carry out safety demonstration for level crossing at Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit, and Failure mode effect analysis was used for identifying the potential hazards associated with the system and their root causes. Hazards associated with Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit level crossing are identified and classified, and results showed that 41% of the hazards are caused by Human errors, technical problems has 32%, non-compliance with standard operating procedures takes 18% and 9% are caused by other factors. Our Failure mode effect analysis result shows that safe redesign of the level crossing, management and operation of level crossings can reduce risks, and frequent orientation of road vehicle users to always give attention to traffic signal in level crossing can reduce the number of fatal and serious incidents and collisions.
The likely near future creation of artificial superintelligence carries significant risks to humanity. These risks are difficult to conceptualise and quantify, but malicious use of existing artificial intelligence by criminals and state actors is already occurring and poses risks to digital security, physical security and integrity of political systems. These risks will increase as artificial intelligence moves closer to superintelligence. While there is little research on risk management tools used in artificial intelligence development, the current global standard for risk management, ISO 31000:2018, is likely used extensively by developers of artificial intelligence technologies. This paper argues that risk management has a common set of vulnerabilities when applied to artificial superintelligence which cannot be resolved within the existing framework and alternative approaches must be developed. Some vulnerabilities are similar to issues posed by malicious threat actors such as professional criminals and terrorists. Like these malicious actors, artificial superintelligence will be capable of rendering mitigation ineffective by working against countermeasures or attacking in ways not anticipated by the risk management process. Criminal threat management recognises this vulnerability and seeks to guide and block the intent of malicious threat actors as an alternative to risk management. An artificial intelligence treachery threat model that acknowledges the failings of risk management and leverages the concepts of criminal threat management and artificial stupidity is proposed. This model identifies emergent malicious behaviour and allows intervention against negative outcomes at the moment of artificial intelligence’s greatest vulnerability.
On a global scale, limited financing for the development and operation of infrastructure projects has pushed authorities to encourage private investors to enter public-private partnerships (PPPs). In this respect, procurement of infrastructure projects such as bridges, water plants, airports, and roads has been adopted through PPPs. This has also applied to the oil-rich country of Libya which experienced severe economic and political problems in the past decade. This paper presents a systematic framework for risk assessment and appraisal of PPPs infrastructure projects. This framework is capable of identifying probable adverse effects that represent key influential factors on the private sector in a socio-economic environment and related to key performance indicators (KPIs) in order to assess the operational efficiency in developing and financing infrastructure projects. This framework proposes a new integrated system that comprises of the following: fault tree, artificial neural networks, and analytical network process. The aim of this system is to ensure sustainable availability of finances that are considered essential for the development of PPPs infrastructure projects in Libya. considering different alternative funding models, it suggests a means of auditing PPPs structure to carry out improved performance for PPPs projects in Libya.
Agriculture involves multiple risks of which environmental and production threats are major ones. Farmers’ risk attitudes and risk perceptions have a significant role in dealing with their decisions, farm-relevant practices and management exposure to risk. Developing countries have carried out limited research work on the variety of risk management issues. This research work quantifies farmers’ attitudes and perceptions of different types of risks, such as which wheat crop is grown. The study relies on a survey of six wheat-producing districts containing household farms with 402 wheat-producing farmers in Punjab, Pakistan. To discover farmer’ attitudes toward risks, the Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent approach has been employed, with the ranking of farmers’ perceptions of four disastrous risk sources, storm rainfall and hail, drought, high input prices and wheat diseases, using a risk matrix. A probit model was employed to analyze the empirical estimation of factors affecting farmers’ attitudes and perceptions. The findings of the study indicate that the majority of the farmers have a risk-averse nature and consider storm rainfall and hail, drought, high input prices and wheat diseases as major threats to their wheat crops. Empirical findings of the study show that gender, religion, age, farming experience, education, credit, farming area, livestock numbers and off-farm income have significant (positive or negative) effects on farmers’ attitudes toward risk and risk perceptions. The study provides a convenient analysis for farmers, researchers, extension services, the agricultural insurance sector, and agriculture policy makers. Policy makers and researchers need to understand farmers’ risk attitudes and risks, providing them with precise knowledge regarding risks and refined risk management tools, and ensuring the provision of agricultural financing and contemporary agricultural extension services.
Product design undergoes various stages and each stage requires valid inputs to obtain the desired output(s). Many times, the inputs that are provided are inaccurate or uncertain. Further, the design of a new product normally starts with a limited knowledge and not properly defined targets to convert an idea or concept into a marketable product. The complex and dynamic nature of design leads to uncertainty, which makes taking the right decision critical. Thus, it is felt that there is a serious need to handle uncertainties during product design. This work analyses the sources of uncertainty that may creep in the product design process during different design stages. Besides, it also illustrates the taxonomy of uncertainty and the tools that might be used to mitigate the uncertainty during each design stage. The paper validates the approach with the help of a design example. It is felt that the designers may benefit from this work as they can identify what type of uncertainty may come upon during a particular stage of the design process, along with the tool that can be used to handle the uncertainty in an effective manner.
The Study investigated to acquire an overall idea about risk and its consequences in construction field
and the process required for its management. The effect of risk on assessment of a project is discussed along with the
tools and methods adopted to manage risk in construction industry. The objective of the research topic “Risk
Management in Construction Industry” is to explore the effective way for implementation of risk management in
construction industry, to consider the different types of risk management techniques applied to alleviate risk, to identify
the use of implementation of the risk management, to determine the factors that can influence the applications of risk
management in the project life cycle, wherein to categorize the principles adopted in Risk Management. I have
conducted a survey on the following aspects of it, a) Identify, characterize, and assess threats involved in the
construction industry b) Assess the vulnerability of critical assets to specific threats. c) Determine the risk (i.e. the
expected consequences of specific types of attacks on specific assets). d) identifies ways to reduce those risks. e)
Prioritize risk reduction measures based on a strategy
Tobacco crop is of high economic significance for Pakistan in terms of valuable
foreign exchange and being a high-value cash crop. However, changes in tobacco prices,
input costs, effects of new tobacco law on producers and varying in economic conditions of
the country have emerged as risk elements for tobacco production. This study was,
therefore, designed to identify different risks that farmers encounter during the tobacco
cultivation in Pakistan and to generate ideas for managing these risks. Various factors
affecting farmers’ decision for simultaneous adoption of contract farming and off-farm
diversification were analyzed in present research using bivariate and multinomial probit
model. The data were obtained from April to September 2015 in selected districts of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (that accounts for more than 94% of the total flue-cured
tobacco production). The results suggest that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of tobacco growers significantly affect the adoption of risk management tools.
Similarly, farmers risk perception of flood, heavy rains and hailstorms, heavy winds, pest
and diseases, fire in curing furnaces, drought and risk attitude of farmers are important
factors that affect the utilization of agricultural risk management tools. The findings of the
current study will help in better understanding farmers’ behavior under risk and as a
guideline for policy makers to anticipate different risk sources related to the tobacco crop.
Collision accident remains a big threat to coastal water transportation operation. Occurrence of a collision event exposes vessel owners and operators as well as the public to risk. The nature of the threat can be worrisome; it may lead to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, and injuries. This makes hybrid analysis of accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios through stochastic tools very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of the environmental. The study involves a predictive model for collision risk and mitigation option for aversion of collision incident. Accident frequency and consequence are obtained using probability tools. Validity of the result is checked with reliability tools. Findings of the study were checked with subsystem and uncertainty risk-contributing factors in order to arrive at a sustainable decision support for collision aversion for inland water transportation. This chapter discusses the result and validation of implementation of the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways.
In the design of new products and systems, the mitigation of potential failures is very important. The sooner potential mitigation strategies can be employed, the lower the cost of those changes will be. Still, there needs to be a means to generate and evaluate mitigation strategies to supplement the existing expertise of the designer. By combining a mitigation strategy taxonomy with various rating strategies, a means to quickly select strategies and demonstrate their effect on the risk of failure can be obtained. This paper explains the risk mitigation selection and evaluation methods, including the mapping calculations used to evaluate strategies and their use in a method to move from a functional model of a new product to a selection of mitigation strategies that can be compared, and select the best strategy for the product.
The analysis of the reliability and availability of power plants is frequently based on simple indexes that do not take into account the criticality of some failures used for availability analysis. This criticality should be evaluated based on concepts of reliability which consider the effect of a component failure on the performance of the entire plant. System reliability analysis tools provide a root-cause analysis leading to the improvement of the plant maintenance plan.
Taking in view that the power plant performance can be evaluated not only based on thermodynamic related indexes, such as heat-rate, Thermal Power Plant Performance Analysis focuses on the presentation of reliability-based tools used to define performance of complex systems and introduces the basic concepts of reliability, maintainability and risk analysis aiming at their application as tools for power plant performance improvement, including:
· selection of critical equipment and components,
· definition of maintenance plans, mainly for auxiliary systems, and
· execution of decision analysis based on risk concepts.
The comprehensive presentation of each analysis allows future application of the methodology making Thermal Power Plant Performance Analysis a key resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students in mechanical and nuclear engineering.
Simulation-based methods are emerging to address the challenges of complex systems risk assessment, and this paper identifies two problems related to the use of such methods. First, the methods cannot identify new hazards if the simulation model builders are expected to foresee the hazards and incorporate the abnormal behavior related to the hazard into the simulation model. Therefore, this paper uses the concept of deviation from design intent to systematically capture abnormal conditions that may lead to component failures, hazards, or both. Second, simulation-based risk assessment methods should explicitly consider what expertise is required from the experts that build and use the simulation models - the transfer of the methods to real engineering practice will be severely hindered if they must be performed by persons that are expert in domain safety as well as advanced computer simulation-based methods. This paper addresses both problems in the context of the functional failure identification and propagation (FFIP) method. One industrially established risk assessment method, hazard and operability study (HAZOP), is harnessed to systematically obtain the deviations from design intent in the application under study. An information system presents a user interface that is understandable to HAZOP professionals, so that their inputs are transparently entered to a data model that captures the deviations. From the data model, instructions for configuring FFIP simulation models are printed in a form that is understandable for FFIP experts. The method is demonstrated for discovering a hazard resulting from system-wide fault propagation in a boiling water reactor case.
A method is presented for quantifying the risk factors for system failure that enables the factors to be quantified, monitored and compared among systems. Its use will promote system safety and reliability. The method is introduced by using an interaction and coupling (IC) chart based on normal accident theory. The IC chart is used to classify object systems on the basis of interaction (linear or complex) and coupling (tight or loose), but its effectiveness is limited by the use of subjective classification. The proposed method quantitatively (that is, objectively) measures risk factors and thus compensates for the subjectivity of the IC chart. In conjunction with a system of system failure meta-methodology and a failure factor structuring methodology it can be used to manage information and communication technology (ICT) failures. Application examples in ICT engineering demonstrated that using the proposed method to quantitatively monitor risk factors helps to improve the safety and quality of various object systems.
A fault tree methodology has been used to analyze the combinations of basic factors involved in fungal degradation and corrosion. The purpose was to demonstrate the identification of mitigation actions for reducing the risk of fungal corrosion of coated aluminum in aircraft. The interaction between fungal-induced degradation processes and coatings is described, and the methodology of the fault tree analysis (FTA) is presented. The interconnection of the basic factors through conventional AND and OR logic gates in the fault tree structure reveals vulnerabilities and potential failure pathways in the system. Mitigation actions can be directed at these basic factors to reduce or eliminate failure pathways, thereby reducing the overall risk of fungal-induced corrosion. Potential applications of FTA for corrosion mitigation, design and materials selection, and failure analysis are presented.
Investing is indispensably connected with risks. Risks always accompany the implementation of any investment project. Therefore, it is vital to manage them effectively and, in particular, to be able to mitigate their impact and consequences. Appropriate methods, techniques and tools can be used to this end. Every project manager should be familiar with them as risk management has become an integral part of project management.
To achieve worldwide high productivity and quality assurance of global production, the authors considered the necessity of including the above with strategic application of the TPS, and clarified the Advanced TPS as the global production by manufacturing technology for the strategic administration of production facilities. Nowadays, we have established manufacturing technology by innovative maintenance of Toyota, a most advanced automotive manufacturing enterprise. Therefore, we propose the V-MICS (utilizing Visualization-Maintenance Innovated Computer System) consisting of five steps (AML-1 to AML-5). Concretely for transfer of the maintenance skill, in particular we will accomplish a procedure combining DB (database) and CG (computer graphics). With regard to the former we will construct a DB for easier accumulation of know-how for parts replacement and other jobs. As regards to the latter, we will provide the instructions to enable even a person not familiarized with machine-drawings to carry out dairy inspection. As a result, we will not only attain considerable reduction of the maintenance cost, but also realize a lot of benefits such as more improved availability when we start up the global production in the world.
The objective of this paper is to introduce the method to add mitigation strategy data to the generated risk event effect neutralization (GREEN) method knowledgebase to improve its ability to effectively mitigate risks. Risk mitigation is the creation and selection of mitigation strategies to reduce, measure, or control risks in a system. Currently, a vast majority of risk mitigation strategies are created based on the engineering expertise of the engineers on a project. The GREEN method provides a means for engineers to supplement their experience by generating risk mitigation strategies based on past successful risk mitigation strategies using the failure modes of the potential risks that the product faces. In order to better aid the engineer in selecting the best possible risk mitigation strategy for a particular risk, more information on mitigation strategies needs to be cataloged in the GREEN knowledgebase. This paper outlines and demonstrates the method for adding new data on mitigation strategies to the knowledgebase, and presents a case study of how this information is added and used to mitigate product risks.
By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the
Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of
occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific
future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be
extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this
study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather
events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and >30
MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the
probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the
frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of
the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher
magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger
than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the
future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based
on Dst < -850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ˜12%. We
also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In
particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of
long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique
cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful
for probabilistic forecasting.
The need for more effective ways to manage risk of technological systems and ensure safety continues to grow in industry. Risk management tends to be considered part of the process of planning technological systems, though, not as part of day-to-day operations. However, risk must also be considered with respect to emergent events that require taking action in ways which differ from planned operational procedures. This paper proposes a new methodology for learning from system failures to prevent further occurrences. The proposed methodology is unique and significant in how it can change industrial maintenance systems through a shift from reactive to proactive ways. The clarification of mechanisms that are prone to failure and corresponding preventative measures will be invaluable to society as a whole.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.