ArticlePublisher preview available

Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years

December 2020
Water Resources Management 34(15)

DOI:10.1007/s11269-020-02688-0

Authors:

Panagiotis D. Oikonomou

University of Vermont

Christos A. Karavitis

Agricultural University of Athens

Demetrios E Tsesmelis

Hellenic Open University

Elpida Kolokytha

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Show all 5 authorsHide

The questions of scale, limit, and areal extent are central points for any drought assessment effort. Drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), are assisting to demarcate drought characteristics and spatial extent. The current approach utilizes the E-OBS gridded dataset's hydro-climatic parameters (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) for applying SPI and SPEI on a Pan-European scale for a detail drought assessment during the 1969-2018 period. The two indices are estimated for the 6 and 12-month scales. In this effort, drought is defined as an event that has index value less than minus 1.5 for at least three consecutive months. Based on this, drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) are derived. The results are displayed in 5-year windows and they are also assessed against independently recorded droughts as occurred. Overall, it may be reported that there has been little change in drought characteristics over the past 50 years in Europe. Furthermore, given the variety of climatic locales on a continental level, the 6 and 12-month time scales for both indices may offer an improvement on drought critical areas identification, threshold definitions, and comparability.

a Spatial domain of E-OBS dataset and the number of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature missing monthly values for 1969–2018 and (b) schematic representation of the process and the data sets utilized at every grid cell for the calculation of SPI and SPEI

…

Quinquennia drought frequency in Europe between 1969 and 2018

…

Quinquennia drought duration in Europe between 1969 and 2018

…

Quinquennia drought severity in Europe between 1969 and 2018

…

Drought frequency in Europe for the period 1969–2018

…

Figures - available from: Water Resources Management

This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.

A preview of this full-text is provided by Springer Nature.
Learn more

Preview content only

Content available from Water Resources Management

This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.

Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe

over the Past 50 Years

Panagiotis D. Oikonomou

1,2

&Christos A. Karavitis

&Demetrios E. Tsesmelis

Elpida Kolokytha

&Rodrigo Maia

Received: 9 March 2020 / Accepted: 30 September 2020 /

Published online: 6 October 2020

#Springer Nature B.V. 2020

Abstract

The questions of scale, limit, and areal extent are central points for any drought assess-

ment effort. Drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), are assisting to demarcate

drought characteristics and spatial extent. The current approach utilizes the E-OBS

gridded dataset's hydro-climatic parameters (precipitation, minimum and maximum tem-

perature) for applying SPI and SPEI on a Pan-European scale for a detail drought

assessment during the 1969–2018 period. The two indices are estimated for the 6 and

12-month scales. In this effort, drought is defined as an event that has index value less

than minus 1.5 for at least three consecutive months. Based on this, drought character-

istics (frequency, duration, and severity) are derived. The results are displayed in 5-year

windows and they are also assessed against independently recorded droughts as occurred.

Overall, it may be reported that there has been little change in drought characteristics over

the past 50 years in Europe. Furthermore, given the variety of climatic locales on a

continental level, the 6 and 12-month time scales for both indices may offer an improve-

ment on drought critical areas identification, threshold definitions, and comparability.

Keywords Drought .Drought characteristics .Drought index .Standardized precipitation index .

SPI .SPEI

Water Resources Management (2020) 34:4757–4772

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02688-0

*Panagiotis D. Oikonomou

panagiotis.oikonomou@uvm.edu

Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA

Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA

Natural Resources and Agricultural Engineering Department, Agricultural University of Athens,

Athens, Greece

Civil Engineering Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Eastern Mediterranean

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2023

The ever-increasing need for water, the alteration in the climate, and its observed changes over recent years have triggered a lot of research studies associated with the phenomenon of drought. Within the wider geographical region of the Mediterranean, the relevant scientific subject seems to be of great interest, since it is undoubtedly related to a number of severe socio-economic consequences. This present effort focuses on the evolution of this particular phenomenon over time, within the borders of nine different countries in the Eastern Mediterranean (Athens, Greece—Europe; Constantinople, Turkey—Asia; Nicosia, Cyprus—Europe; Jerusalem, Israel—Asia; Amman, Jordan—Asia; Damascus, Syria—Asia; Beirut, Lebanon—Asia; Cairo, Egypt—Africa; and Tripoli Libya—Africa). By applying the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), examining precipitation data at the month level (January 1901 to December 2020), and utilizing the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method, the spatio–temporal variability of drought events in the Eastern Mediterranean area was studied. In Jerusalem, long-term droughts presented a higher than usual volume, in accordance with applying the 12- and 24-month SPI, starting from the mid-20th century. Similarly, the region of Damascus presented a similar pattern to those in Beirut, Amman, and Jerusalem. An upward trend in the frequency of extreme drought events was observed for the last thirty years. The same trend seems to be true in terms of the duration of dry periods. Drought events have also been observed in the central, southern, and eastern regions of Turkey. A downward trend was observed in Cairo based on a trend analysis of its monthly precipitation.

Assessment of Continuity Changes in Spatial and Temporal Trend of Rainfall and Drought

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2023
PURE APPL GEOPHYS

Identifying the changes and effects of drought (as a natural creeping phenomenon) as accurately as possible is very effective and essential in managing how to deal with this phenomenon. To study drought in more detail, the main objective of this research is to consider the stability and changes of drought in different moving periods (MPs). These investigations were performed for various seasonal and annual time scales using rainfall values and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). The results showed sinusoidal changes in trend correlation coefficients (TCCs) for the 10-year MP, in which the wave amplitude became shorter and wavelength became longer as the MP lengthened. In recent MPs, the coefficient values of the trend were increasing. The RDI analysis showed that, in addition to the mentioned changes, the trend of autumn time scale changes in the 15- and 20-year MPs, especially after MP7, was the opposite of the change trend in other time scales, especially the winter time scale. According to the results, the values of P(N/N) were greater than the values of P(N/P), which showed the stability of the decreasing trend of rainfall and RDI changes in different MPs, especially at 10 years.

Impact of Agricultural Drought on Barley and Wheat Yield: A Comparative Case Study of Spain and Germany

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2023

Given the growing interest in drought impacts on crops, this work studied the impact of agricultural drought on wheat and barley during the period 2001–2020. The study was carried out in the Spanish regions of Castilla y León and Castilla–La Mancha, with approximate areas of 94,000 km2 and 79,000 km2, respectively, and in the German regions of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Niedersachsen and Bayern, with approximate areas of 34,000 km2, 48,000 km2 and 71,000 km2, respectively. These are the main cereal-growing regions of Spain and Germany. Soil moisture (SM) in the root zone was extracted from the LISFLOOD model database, and SM anomalies were used as the agricultural drought index. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) variables were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the month in which SM is most influential on these crop state variables was identified. Crop yields in Spain and Germany were obtained from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and the German Federal Statistical Office, respectively. Agricultural drought years and their impact on cereal yields were determined on a regional scale using three approaches based on the critical month with different time periods. These approaches were the use of the critical month and the two (before or after) and the three months (before and after) around the critical month. Two different analyses were used to identify the critical month, depending on the different environmental conditions in each country. These two approaches consisted of a monthly correlation analysis between SM anomalies and cereal yield in Spain and a monthly trend analysis of SM anomalies in Germany. The results showed a dependence of crop variables on SM in spring months in both countries and in summer months in Germany. Differences were found depending on the environmental conditions. A considerable reduction in cereal yields was obtained in Spain which exceeded 30%. Similarly, a worrying sign was observed in Germany, with a positive agricultural drought trend and a yield reduction of almost 5% in cereal crops. In view of future forecasts of the negative impact of climate change on global food production, this study provides valuable information for water and agricultural management under climate change scenarios. Both in regions that are already threatened and in those that until recently were not affected, it is necessary to study adaptation measures to avoid aggravating the impact of agricultural drought on crops, which could improve water productivity and future food security.

Environmental suitability and potential range expansion of the Eurasian beaver in Italy

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2023
ANIM CONSERV

Reintroduction and rewilding initiatives are key strategies to reverse human impacts on ecosystems and re-establish natural processes. However, rewilding may involve complex management scenarios, because many expanding species can have economic impacts and cause human-wildlife conflicts. Conflicts can be particularly challenging when carnivores, large herbivores and ecosystem engineers are involved. The Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) is a key ecosystem engineer that was once present in a large part of the Palearctic, but in Medieval times underwent a severe decline due to the joint effects of habitat loss and hunting. Subsequent legal protection and reintroductions triggered the recovery of the species through most of its original range. Eurasian beavers recently started the recolonization of Italy, because of the joint effects of natural dispersal (from Austria to northern Italy) and illegal reintroductions (central Italy). The lack of data on the most likely coloniza-tion routes hampers appropriate management of this species. Here, we identified the areas where beaver populations are most likely to arrive in the near future within Europe, with a specific focus on Italy. First, we developed spatially cross-validated species distribution models to identify the areas with the highest suitabil-ity for the Eurasian beaver in Europe. Second, we used connectivity modelling to assess the possible expansion routes of this species in Italy. Large areas of Europe are suitable for the beaver and may soon be colonized. The connectivity model showed a high potential for expansion from central Italy to surrounding areas, while the high isolation of northern Italy populations suggests a slower expansion. Our results can help environmental managers to understand where to focus both the future monitoring of beaver populations and actions aimed at preventing and mitigating possible human-wildlife conflicts that could arise from the expansion of an environmental engineer such as the beaver.

Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index Approach for Drought Assessment in Slovakia—Statistical Evaluation of Different Calculations

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2023

In the conditions of rising air temperature and changing precipitation regimes in Central Europe and Slovakia over the last two decades, it is necessary to analyse drought, develop high-quality tools for drought detection, and understand its reactions to the emerging drought situation. One of the frequently used meteorological drought indices is the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Several parameters can be modified in different steps of the calculation process of SPEI. In the article, we analyse the influence of selected adjustable parameters on the index results. Our research has shown that the choice of a statistical distribution (Log-logistic, Pearson III, or Generalized Extreme Value) for fitting water balance can affect the feasibility of calculating distribution parameters (and thus the index) from the provided input data, as well as lead to either underestimation or overestimation of the index. The normality test of SPEI can be used as a tool for the detection and elimination of highly skewed indices and cases when the indices were not well determined by the distribution function. This study demonstrated improved results when using the GEV distribution, despite the common use of the Log-logistic distribution. With the Pearson III distribution, unusually high or low SPEI values (|SPEI| > 6) were detected.

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations of drought over Serbia by investigating the applicability of precipitation-based drought indices

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023
THEOR APPL CLIMATOL

The precipitation-based indices such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized anomaly index (SAI), the rainfall anomaly index (RAI), the percent of normal precipitation (PNP), the China Z index (CZI), and the modified China Z index (MCZI) were compared using monthly precipitation data from 28 synoptic stations in Serbia for the period 1946–2019. The MCZI and CZI showed the lowest similarity to the SPI index that was selected as a reference drought index. According to the findings of the present study, the RAI index was proposed as an index that has the most similar performance to the SPI index. Based on the spatial distribution of the RAI values for the year 2000, the whole region except the western part of Serbia can be classified as extremely dry.

Determining Factors Affecting the Soil Water Content and Yield of Selected Crops in a Field Experiment with a Rainout Shelter and a Control Plot in the Czech Republic

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2023

To investigate the different responses of crops to drought stress under field conditions of Central European Climate for selected crop rotations, a field experiment was conducted at a test site in the Czech Republic from 2014 to 2021. Depending on the crop, rainout shelters were placed in late spring and early summer to study the effects of drought in the final stages of crop development. Due to these rainout shelters and the associated lower water availability for the crops during the summer, a reduction in leaf area index, biomass and yield was observed. For example, a yield decrease of more than 30% was observed for spring barley, winter rape and winter wheat compared to conditions without rainout shelters. The reduction was 25% and 18% for winter rye and silage maize, respectively, under rainout shelters. Soil moisture played a significant role in yield, where a predictive model based on monthly soil moisture explained up to 79% (winter rape) of the yield variance.

Impact of drought conditions on air pollution over Turkey

Article

Mar 2023

As a natural disaster, drought affects many sectors such as agriculture and hydrology, as well as having an effect on air quality. In terms of air pollution, drought can reduce wet scavenging of pollutants and change their chemical production/loss and lifetime. This study investigates the relationship between drought events and air pollutants in Turkey. As a drought indicator, the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)‐1 monthly values for dry (SPEI < −0.99), normal (−0.99 < SPEI < 0.99) and wet (SPEI < 0.99) conditions were used to investigate the changes in PM 10 , PM 2.5 , O 3 concentration levels. Monthly mean PM 10 values of 80 stations for the period 2010–2018, PM 2.5 and O 3 values of 10 and 12 stations, respectively, were used for the analysis throughout the 2014–2018 period. According to the results, while frequency occurrence of normal conditions decreased in the last period (2010–2018) when compared to the first (1901–2009), drought conditions have significantly increased in each region of Turkey in the last decade. Highest increase in drought events occurred in the inner/southern parts of Turkey. In dry events, while PM 10 levels of the stations show above‐normal values, highest regional increase in PM 10 was found in the Central Anatolia (CAR), Mediterranean (MeR), Aegean (AR) and Marmara (MR) regions of the country. In fall, high daily temperatures and cloudless days in CAR and MeR regions are seen under deep surface low over continental Europe and surface high over Caspian Sea, which result in severe dryness events and associated high PM 10 values in the air quality stations. On the other hand, as a consequence of the expanding Asiatic monsoon low to the eastern part of Turkey, significant amount of moisture is transferred from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea surface to the CAR and MeR regions by southerly flows (wetness SPEI conditions in fall) and cause to appear below‐normal PM 10 values in the southern stations.

Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2022
NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS

Droughts are among the most relevant natural disasters related to climate change. We evaluated different regional climate model outputs and their ability to reproduce observed drought indices in Germany and its near surroundings between 1980–2009. Both outputs of an ensemble of six EURO-CORDEX models of 12.5 km grid resolution and outputs from a high-resolution (5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) run were employed. The latter model was especially tailored for the study region regarding the physics configuration. We investigated drought-related variables and derived the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-3) to account for meteorological droughts. Based on that, we analyzed correlations, the 2003 event, trends and drought characteristics (frequency, duration and severity) and compared the results to E-OBS. Methods used include Taylor diagrams, the Mann–Kendall trend test and the spatial efficiency (SPAEF) metric to account for spatial agreement of patterns. Averaged over the domain, meteorological droughts were found to occur approximately 16 times in the study period with an average duration of 3.1 months and average severity of 1.47 SPEI units. WRF's resolution and setup were shown to be less important for the reproduction of the single drought event and overall drought characteristics. Depending on the specific goals of drought analyses, computation resources could therefore be saved, since a coarser resolution can provide similar results. Benefits of WRF were found in the correlation analysis. The greatest benefits were identified in the trend analysis: only WRF was able to reproduce the observed negative SPEI trends to a fairly high spatial accuracy, while the other regional climate models (RCMs) completely failed in this regard. This was mainly due to the WRF model settings, highlighting the importance of appropriate model configuration tailored to the target region. Our findings are especially relevant in the context of climate change studies, where the appropriate reproduction of trends is of high importance.

Long-Term Variability in Hydrological Droughts and Floods In Sub-Saharan Africa: New Perspectives From A 65-Year Daily Streamflow Dataset

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022
J HYDROL

Understanding hydrological variability is of crucial importance for water resource management in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While existing studies typically focus on individual river basins, and suffer from incomplete records, this study provides a new perspective of trends and variability in hydrological flood and drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and intensity) across the entire SSA. This is achieved by: i) creating a 65-year long, complete daily streamflow dataset consisting of over 600 gauging stations; ii) quantifying changes in flood and drought characteristics between 1950 and 2014; iii) evaluating how decadal variability influences historical trends. Results of daily streamflow reconstructions using random forests provide satisfactory performance over most of SSA, except for parts of southern Africa. Using change-point and trend analyses, we identify three periods that characterise historical variations affecting hydrological extremes in western and central Africa, and some parts of southern Africa: i) the 1950s–60s and after the 1980s–90s, when floods (droughts) tend to be more (less) intense, more (less) frequent and more (less) persistent; and ii) the 1970s–80s, when floods (droughts) are less (more) intense, less (more) frequent and less (more) persistent. Finally, we reveal significant decadal variations in all flood and drought characteristics, which explain aperiodic increasing and decreasing trends. This stresses the importance of considering multiple time-periods when analysing recent trends, as previous assessments may have been unrepresentative of long-term changes.

STEAD: a high-resolution daily gridded temperature dataset for Spain

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2019

Using 5520 observatories covering the whole territory of Spain (about 1 station per 90 km2 considering the whole period), a daily gridded maximum and minimum temperature was built covering a period from 1901 to 2014 in peninsular Spain and 1971 to 2014 in the Balearic and Canary Islands. A comprehensive quality control was applied to the original data, and the gaps were filled on each day and location independently. Using the filled data series, a grid of 5 km × 5 km spatial resolution was created by estimating daily temperatures and their corresponding uncertainties at each grid point. Four daily temperature indices were calculated to describe the spatial distribution of absolute maximum and minimum temperature, number of frost days and number of summer days in Spain. The southern plateau showed the maximum values of maximum absolute temperature and summer days, while the minimum absolute temperature and frost days reached their maximums at the northern plateau. The use of all the available information, the complete quality control and the high spatial resolution of the grid allowed for an accurate estimate of temperature that represents a precise spatial and temporal distribution of daily temperatures in Spain. The STEAD dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/8622 and can be cited as Serrano-Notivoli et al. (2019).

Assessing structural uncertainty caused by different weighting methods on the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI)

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2019
STOCH ENV RES RISK A

Indices are used for representing complex phenomena; however, concerns usually arise regarding their objectivity and reliability, particularly dealing with their uncertainties during the development process. The current overarching objective is to reveal the significance of employing different weighting techniques in the application of the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) and demarcate any pertinent implications that may emerge in drought decision making. Greece, as it is very often facing the catastrophic effects of droughts, presents an almost ideal case for the SDVI testing. SDVI outcomes were tested utilizing five weighting techniques deriving from four weighting methods. The analyses indicated that the use of complex weighting models may not be necessary in all cases and that the simple equal weighting method seems more effective to estimate drought vulnerability. It also seems more important to address the search for valid, reliable and relevant individual indicators forming the complex index as well as appropriate index development processes that would measure performance of water bodies, systems and schemes, monitor the process of equitable sharing, and provide mechanisms for monitoring the state and changes in interdependent water systems.

Assessment of the Vulnerability to Drought and Desertification Characteristics Using the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) and the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI)

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2019

The degradation of natural resources at an intense rate creates serious problems in the environmental systems particularly with the compounding effects of climatic vagaries and changes. On the one hand, desertification is a crucial universal, mostly an anthropogenic environmental issue affecting soils all over the world. On the other hand, drought is a natural phenomenon in direct association with reduced rainfall in various spatial and temporal frames. Vulnerabilities to drought and desertification are complex processes caused by environmental, ecological, social, economic and anthropogenic factors. Particularly for the Mediterranean semi-arid conditions, where the physical and structural systems are more vulnerable, the abuse and overuse of the natural resources lead to their degradation and ultimately, if the current trends continue, to their marginalization. The scope of the current effort is trying to find any common drivers for the pressures of both processes. Thus, the vulnerabilities to drought and desertification are comparing by using the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) and the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI). The indices are calculated from October 1983 to September 1996 in Greece. Greece is prone to desertification and it is often experiencing intense droughts, thus it presents an almost ideal case study area. The results may indicate that the most important factor for such procedures is the deficits in water resources, either due to lower than usually expected rainfall or to higher societal water demand.

Assessing Drought Vulnerability in Northeast Colorado

Poster

Full-text available

Dec 2018

Documentary data and the study of past droughts: A global state of the art

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2018
CLIM PAST

The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including general annals, chronicles, memoirs and diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather; records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records; legal-administrative evidence; religious sources; letters; songs; newspapers and journals; pictographic evidence; chronograms; epigraphic evidence; early instrumental observations; society commentaries; and compilations and books. These are available from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also considered from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

Multi-Index Drought Assessment in Europe

Conference Paper

Full-text available

Nov 2018

Any attempt for the application of integrated drought management, requires identifying and characterizing the event per se. The questions of scale, boundary, and of geographic areal extend are of central concern for any efforts of drought assessment, impacts identification, and thus of drought mitigation implementation mechanisms. The use of drought indices, such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), has often lead to pragmatic realization of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extend. The current effort presents the implementation of SPI and SPEI on a Pan-European scale and it is evaluated using existing precipitation and temperature data. The E-OBS gridded dataset for precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature used covered the period 1969 – 2018. The two indices estimated for time steps of 6, and 12 months. The results for the application period of recurrent droughts indicate the potential that both indices offer for an improvement on drought critical areas identification, threshold definitions and comparability, towards contingency planning leading to better mitigation efforts.

An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2018

We describe the construction of a new version of the Europe‐wide E‐OBS temperature (daily minimum, mean and maximum values) and precipitation dataset. This version provides an improved estimation of interpolation uncertainty through the calculation of a 100‐member ensemble of realizations of each daily field. The dataset covers the period back to 1950, and provides gridded fields at a spacing of 0.25° x 0.25° in regular latitude/longitude coordinates. As with the original E‐OBS dataset, the ensemble version is based on the station series collated as part of the ECA&D initiative. Station density varies significantly over the domain, and over time, and a reliable estimation of interpolation uncertainty in the gridded fields is therefore important for users of the dataset. The uncertainty quantified by the ensemble dataset is more realistic than the uncertainty estimates in the original version, although uncertainty is still underestimated in data‐sparse regions. The new dataset is compared against the earlier version of E‐OBS and against regional gridded datasets produced by a selection of National Meteorological Services (NMSs). In terms of both climatological averages and extreme values, the new version of E‐OBS is broadly comparable to the earlier version. Nonetheless, users will notice differences between the two E‐OBS versions, especially for precipitation, which arises from the different gridding method used.

Revisiting the recent European droughts from a long-term perspective

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2018

Early 21st-century droughts in Europe have been broadly regarded as exceptionally severe, substantially affecting a wide range of socio-economic sectors. These extreme events were linked mainly to increases in temperature and record-breaking heatwaves that have been influencing Europe since 2000, in combination with a lack of precipitation during the summer months. Drought propagated through all respective compartments of the hydrological cycle, involving low runoff and prolonged soil moisture deficits. What if these recent droughts are not as extreme as previously thought? Using reconstructed droughts over the last 250 years, we show that although the 2003 and 2015 droughts may be regarded as the most extreme droughts driven by precipitation deficits during the vegetation period, their spatial extent and severity at a long-term European scale are less uncommon. This conclusion is evident in our concurrent investigation of three major drought types – meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (grid-scale runoff) droughts. Additionally, unprecedented drying trends for soil moisture and corresponding increases in the frequency of agricultural droughts are also observed, reflecting the recurring periods of high temperatures. Since intense and extended meteorological droughts may reemerge in the future, our study highlights concerns regarding the impacts of such extreme events when combined with persistent decrease in European soil moisture.

Climate Dependence and Food Problems in Russia, 1900-1990, The Interaction of Climate and Agricultural Policy and Their Effect on Food Problems

Article

Jun 2006

Enhancing the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index by Integrating Spatiotemporal Information from Satellite and In Situ Data

Article

Feb 2019
J HYDROL

Drought is a complex natural hazard with its adverse multifaceted impacts cascading in every physical and human system. The vulnerability magnitude of various areas to drought mostly depends on their exposure to water deficiency, the existing water management policy framework and its implementation. The Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) is an integrated attempt towards characterizing drought vulnerability based on a comparative classification system, incorporating precipitation patterns, the supply and demand trends, and the socioeconomic background as the most crucial contributors to drought vulnerability. This work attempts to evolve the SDVI by presenting a more rigorous method of index parameters estimation and argues that the combination of in-situ and satellite data improve the index results in an effort to further minimize the paucity of drought related information. At the same time, it helps to surpass previous limitations in temporal and spatial propagation of the vulnerability concept. The new framework is applied in the South Platte Basin, within Colorado, on the 2012 summer drought (July-September). The proposed index modification may convey drought information in a more holistic manner to decision makers. SDVI could aid in advancing the understanding of each component contribution through in situ and remote sensing data integration and in avoiding existing practices of broken linkages and fragmentation of the reported impacts. Thus, it is believed that the SDVI could serve as an additional tool to guide decisions and target mitigation and adaptation actions, allowing for a more integrated management approach.