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Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü’nde orman yangını riskinin cbs tabanlı çok kriterli analizi ve haritalandırılması

Authors:

Abstract

Orman yangın riskinin CBS temelli ve çok kriterli analizi; orman yangını riskini etkileyen en önemli kriterlerin tanımlanması, değer aralıklarının ve risk sınıflarının belirlenmesi, kriterlerin karşılaştırılması ve sonuç olarak risk endeksi ve risk haritasının üretilmesi aşamalarından oluşmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü’nde (OBM) orman yangını riskinin hesaplanabilmesi için son 10 yılda (2010-2019) meydana gelen orman yangınları CBS ile analiz edilmiş, bu analizler arazi çalışmaları ile desteklenmiş ve özgün bir risk kriterleri tablosu düzenlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak Muğla OBM için risk endeksi hesaplanarak bir orman yangını risk haritası oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmanın esas hedefi, Muğla OBM baz alınarak, Türkiye’de orman yangını riskinin analizinde daha doğru sonuçlar alınmasını sağlamak amacıyla ve arazi ölçümlerinin de yardımıyla mümkün olduğu kadar objektif kriter değerlendirmeleri yapılması konusunda bir model oluşturmaktır.
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Ormancılık Araştırma Dergisi
Turkish Journal of Forestr y Research
2021, 8:1, 1-11
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17568/ogmoad.708385
Koruma/Conservation
Araştırma makalesi/Research article
Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü’nde orman yangını riskinin çok kriterli
analizi ve haritalandırılması


1
2
Öz
              
   
             
             
      

       

            
   

            
   
        

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Abstract
        
 











Keywords  

   
                          
   
Atıf  : 
   
 
     


Geliş tarihi (

Kabul tarihi (

Sorumlu yazar (


1
2
Sorumlu editör (


2
1. Giriş

    
     
       
      
    
       



     

  
      


     
 

  
 
       




   
     

    
  



    
       

       




     

  

    
       
   
     


   

   

    
   

 



2. Çalışma Alanı
   
       
      
    

       
   





         
    
    
           


      
    
   
 
   
 
       
 


 


3. Materyal ve Yöntem
3.1. Materyal
 



    

 

   
 
   
      
















3.2. Yöntem
    
     
       
      
    
 

     
 
     


   


    


     
    
     
     

        

  

  



           


     
    
                                  


4. Bulgular
4.1. Kriterlerin değerlendirilmesi
4.1.1. Bitki örtüsü



  
       
 
   




4.1.1.1. Ana ağaç tü

  
 
         

   
 



   
      





  
  
  
   
   
 2
  2
  2 1
4.1.1.2. Kapalılık
        

     

      

       
     
    
     



   

    

     


(a) (b)





  







  
  
  22
  21
  2
4.1.1.3. Çağ sınıarı
     
     
      

   
   
   





    
      







  
 
  
  
   2
  1
4.1.2. Topoğrafik kriterler
4.1.2.1. Eğim
     
      
      



(a)
(a)
(b)
(b)

     
   
   


    


      
     
      







   
 
  
  
   2
  2
   1
   1
 1
2 1
 11
4.1.2.2. Bakı
     
      





      
     
         







  
G  
  
  
 
 
   2
  2
  1
(a)
(a)
(b)
(b)
4.1.2.3. Rakım

        

        



      
     
      







   
  
  
  2
  1
4.1.3. İnsan faaliyetlerine mesafe kriterleri
4.1.3.1. Tarım alanlarına mesafe
 



    


       
      

   




 
 
 
 2
 1
4.1.3.2. Yerleşim yerlerine mesafe
    
     
     
    
      
  

 

(a)
(a)
(b)
(b)
4.1.3.3. Yollara mesafe

  
 
  
     

    


    
   
         

         






 
 
 2


 
 
 
 2
4.1.3.4. Enerji nakil hatlarına mesafe
       
   
      
 

 
   



      
    



 
 
 
(a)
(a)
(a)
(b)
(b)
(b)
 




4.2. Kriter değerlendirme tablosunun
oluşturulması ve risk indeksinin hesaplanması






 
  
 


  
  
  
  
2
 2
 1

  
  
  
 2

  
  
  
 2
 1


 
  
2
 1

G 
  
  
 
 
 2
 2
1

  
  
 2
 1





  
  
 2
 1


  
  
 2

  
  
 2


  
  

     

 


  

     

       



     




     


         

    
      
      

5. Sonuç ve Öneriler
 
     

 
    
       

  
   
      



    
    

          
     

    

 
     



 


     

     
      

         
     
      

         
      


11
        
    
    

          

       



Kaynaklar



        
   
     -

      
         



     




   

     

  



    
        


 

       







 
 
    
-

         



        
 


     
     



  
 

 
-



     


 


  
      



  
     


 
 
    

   


 


           
   

... Muğla ilinde orman alanlarını tehdit edebilecek dört etken belirtilmiştir: 1) tarımsal faaliyetlerin yoğunluğu, 2) tarım alanlarının orman alanlarına çok yakın olması, 3) artan madencilik faaliyetleri, 4) potansiyel orman yangın riskinin çok yüksek olması (Baltacı & Yıldırım, 2021). Bu çalışmada, arazi örtüsündeki değişim incelendiğinde orman alanlarının çoğunlukla tarım alanına ve diğer bitki örtüsüne dönüşmesi dikkat çekmiştir. ...
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Orman alanlarındaki parçalanmanın izlenmesi, arazi kullanım planlaması ve sürdürülebilir çevre yönetiminde geri dönüşü olmayan olumsuz sonuçların engellenmesi bakımından değerlidir. Muğla ili sınırındaki orman alanları, son otuz yılda antropojenik faaliyetlerin etkisiyle (tarım alanlarının kontrolsüz genişlemesi, ormansızlaşma, plansız kentleşme ve sanayileşme, orman yangınları vb.) habitat parçalanmasına maruz kalmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Muğla’da yaşanan orman parçalanmasının genel eğilimlerini; orman alan yoğunluğu (Forest Area Density [FAD]) indeksi, normalleştirilmiş hipsometrik eğri (Normalized Hypsometric Curve) ve morfolojik değişim analizleri ile incelemektir. Bu çalışmanın hipotezi, ormanların mekânsal yapısı ve dağılımının 1990’ların başından beri değişmesi ve bu değişikliğin orman alanlarının parçalanmasına, daralmasına ve yıpranmasına yol açmasıdır. Çalışma kapsamında, orman alanlarının zaman içerisinde hangi alanlara dönüştüğünü gözlemlemek amacıyla Arazi Örtüsü/Alan Kullanım (AÖ/AK) haritaları kullanılmıştır. Bu kapsamda, AÖ/AK değişimleri Sankey diyagramı ile görselleştirilmiş ve parçalanma seviyesi ilçe düzeyinde incelenmiştir. İlçe düzeyinde yapılan incelemenin amacı, parçalanmadaki sıcak noktaların tanımlanması ve ormanların parçalanma seviyesi hakkında detaylı düzeyde karşılaştırmalı bilgi sağlamaktır.
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Forest fire is one of the high-risk natural disasters in the north-western Anatolia section of Turkey. This paper suggests a new approach based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the development of forest fire-risk model. The proposed approach includes human factors as well as environmental factors. In this context, the 12 variables defined under anthropogenic and physical factors in the proposed model are the slope, elevation, aspect, vegetation type, crown closure, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance to road, settlement, and agricultural areas, population density, previous fires, and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). For each variable, a layer was created in the GIS database environment. GIS-layers were classified, considering the risk of potentially generating forest-fire of the relevant variables. In addition, to generate risk maps, the weights used in these GIS-layers were obtained by applying the AHP technique. One of the major results of the study shows that the rates of “extreme”, “very high”, “high”, and “moderate” risk areas are 3.87%, 63.46%, 32.13% and 0.53%, respectively. Another important result is that there are not observed the so called “no risk" and "low risk" classes in the region. The results let us to make a conclusion that the natural and human factors having significant contributions the region to be fire-prone. Yet, these results also indicate that rather than emphasizing forest-fire preparedness and mitigation, policy-makers manage forest-fires through reactive, crisis-oriented approaches. In contrast to crisis-based management plans, this study suggests that risk-based preventive plans should be developed and implemented.
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Effective forest-fire management is based on sound knowledge of the potential for ignition, behavior, difficulty of control, and impact of fire in a given situation. Forest-fire danger-rating systems provide a framework for organizing and integrating scientific knowledge and operational experience, and they are a cornerstone of modern fire management. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is one of the most well developed and widely applied schemes. This paper suggests how experience with the CFFDRS can inform the development of danger-rating systems in other forest or wildland environments. There are four key elements to developing and realizing a national forest-fire danger-rating system: • A sustained program of scientific research to develop a system based on relationships between fire weather/fuels/topography and fire occurrence/behaviour/impact that are appropriate to the fire environment. • Development of the technical infrastructure to gather and process fire weather data and to disseminate fire weather forecasts, information about fire-danger, and predictions of fire behavior within operational agencies. • Technology transfer, and training in the use of fire-danger information in fire operations, which are appropriate to the needs and capabilities of operational agencies. • Development of institutional mechanisms to foster cooperation and communication between fire-management and research agencies; to share resources; and to set common standards for information, resources and training. Most important, a common vision and a sense of common cause are needed. Where the CFFDRS has been implemented in other countries, technological aspects are often over-emphasized, while the importance of human and institutional factors is overlooked
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