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We study delinquent and non‐performing loans in consumer credit markets and their implications for consumer behaviour. By introducing endogenously non‐payment of debt in the inter‐temporal optimization problem of a representative borrowing household, we derive analytically an augmented consumption Euler equation featuring a risk factor in terms of expected non‐performing debt and delinquent debt. We find that the presence of the risk factor differentiates the estimated values of the preference parameters and enhances the model's structure in comparison to the benchmark representative agent model with full debt repayment, which seems to be an incomplete description of consumer behaviour.

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The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts—from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively—is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in the inflation and inflation expectations series motivates the use of a local-to-unity specification of the inflation process that enables us to test whether the data are generated by locally non-stationary or stationary processes. Thus,we test, rather than assume, stationarity of near-unit-root processes. The paper combines the concept of localities in the underlying time series, such as those that may exist in the sample but not in the population, with cointegration
analysis which permits the distinction between short-run and long-run structures. Thus, we examine possible in-sample departures from rationality both in the short run and the long run. Our empirical results indicate that the rational expectations hypothesis holds in the long run, while forecasters adjust their expectations slowly in the short run. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that the persistence of inflation comes from the dynamics of expectations.

In this study we tried to detect the determinants of non-performing loans for a sample of 85 banks in three countries (Italy, Greece and Spain) for the period of 2004-2008. These countries have faced financial problems after the subprime crisis on 2008. The variables used are macroeconomic variables and specific variables to the bank. The macroeconomic variables are included the rate of growth of GDP, unemployment rate and real interest rate with respect to specific variables opted for the return on assets, the change in loans and the loan loss reserves to total loans ratio (LLR/TL). After the application of the method of panel data, we found the problem loans vary negatively with the growth rate of GDP, the profitability of banks’ assets and positively with the unemployment rate, the loan loss reserves to total loans and the real interest rate.

This paper evaluates the monetary and macroprudential policies that mitigate the procyclicality arising from the interlinkages between current account deficits and financial vulnerabilities. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneous households and collateralised debt. The model predicts that external shocks are important in driving current account deficits that are coupled with run-ups in house prices and household debt. In this context, optimal policy features an interest-rate response to credit and a LTV ratio that countercyclically responds to house price dynamics. By allowing an interest-rate response to changes in financial variables, the monetary policy authority improves social welfare, because of the large welfare gains accrued to the Savers. The additional use of a countercyclical LTV ratio that responds to house prices, increases the ability of borrowers to smooth consumption over the cycle and is Pareto improving. Domestic and foreign shocks account for a similar fraction of the welfare gains delivered by such a policy.

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

In this paper we exploit the specific structure of the Euler equation and develop two alternative GMM estimators that deal explicitly with measurement error. The first estimator assumes that the measurement error is lognormally distributed. The second estimator drops the distributional assumption and solves out for the unknown, but constant, conditional mean. Our Monte Carlo results suggest that both proposed estimators perform much better than conventional alternatives based on the exact Euler equation or its log-linear approximation, especially with short panels. The empirical application of the proposed estimators yields plausible estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion and discount rate.

We investigate the possibility that limited participation in asset markets, and the stock market in particular, might explain the lack of correspondence between the sample moments of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution and asset returns in U.K. data. We estimate ownership probabilities to separate "likely" shareholders from nonshareholders, enabling us to control for changing composition effects as well as selection into the group. We then construct estimates of the IMRS for each of these different groups and consider their time-series properties. We find that the consumption growth of shareholders is more volatile than that of nonshareholders and more highly correlated with excess returns to shares. In particular, one cannot reject the predictions of the consumption capital asset pricing model for the group of households predicted to own both assets. This is in contrast to the failure of the model when estimated on data for all households.

We discuss instrumental variables (IV) estimation in the broader context of the generalized method of moments (GMM), and describe an extended IV estimation routine that provides GMM estimates as well as additional diagnostic tests. Stand-alone test procedures for heteroskedasticity, overidentification, and endogeneity in the IV context are also described. Copyright 2003 by Stata Corporation.

Personal bankruptcies in the United States have increased dramatically, rising from 1.4 per thousand working age population in 1970 to 8.5 in 2002. We use a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with competitive financial intermediaries who can observe households' earnings, age and current asset holdings to evaluate several commonly offered explanations. We find that increased uncertainty (income shocks, expense uncertainty) cannot quantitatively account for the rise in bankruptcies. Instead, stories related to a change in the credit market environment are more plausible. In particular, we find that a combination of a decrease in the transactions cost of lending and a decline in the cost of bankruptcy does a good job in accounting for the rise in consumer bankruptcy. We also argue that the abolition of usury laws and other legal changes are unimportant.

Individuals' preferences underlying most economic behavior are likely to display substantial heterogeneity. This paper reports on direct measures of preference parameters relating to risk tolerance, time preference, and intertemporal substitution. These experimental measures are based on survey respondents' choices in hypothetical situations. The questions are constructed with as little departure from the theorist's concept of the underlying parameter as possible. The individual measures of preference parameters display substantial heterogeneity. The majority of respondents fall into the least risk-tolerant group, but a substantial minority display higher risk tolerance. The individual measures of intertemporal substitution and time preference also display substantial heterogeneity. The mean risk tolerance is 0.25; the mean elasticity of intertemporal substitution is 0.2. Estimated risk tolerance and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are essentially uncorrelated across individuals. Because the risk tolerance measure is obtained as part of the main questionnaire of a large survey, it can be related to a number of economic behaviors. Measured risk tolerance is positively related to a number of risky behaviors, including smoking, drinking, failing to have insurance, and holding stocks rather than Treasury bills. Although measured risk tolerance explains only a small fraction of the variation of the studied behaviors, these estimates provide evidence about the validity and usefulness of the measures of preference parameters.

Purpose – The authors examine the optimal consumption decisions of households in a micro-founded framework that introduces endogenous default. They study default in the context of a two-period process, assuming three non-overlapping steps of non-payment: delinquency, non-performing loans and bankruptcy (default).
Design/methodology/approach – In their model, the authors extend the analysis of loan default to two periods and include agent heterogeneity by considering also saving households. In the optimization problem, the authors obtain first-order conditions for borrowers who do not repay all of their loans (comparing them to those who fully repay them) and also for savers. In addition, by using nonlinear Generalized Method of
Moments (GMM), they obtain consistent estimates of the household preference parameters and present the impulse responses of borrowers’ consumption to demand shocks.
Findings – The authors derive an augmented consumption Euler equation for borrowers, which is a function inter alia of an expected default factor. They estimate this equation and find non-negligible differences in preference parameters relative to values reported in the literature. Further, an ordering by size of the household discount factors is provided empirically. Finally, the impulse responses of borrowers’ consumption to a demand
shock are found to last more for borrowers who do not fully repay their debts.
Originality/value – This work represents a promising line of research by introducing default in one of the basic components of DSGE models, making the latter more appropriate for analyzing monetary and macroprudential policies.

A life-cycle model with equilibrium default in which agents with and without temptation coexist is constructed to evaluate the 2005 bankruptcy law reform. The calibrated model indicates that the 2005 reform reduces bankruptcies, as seen in the data, and improves welfare, as lower default premia allows better consumption smoothing. A counterfactual reform of changing income garnishment rate is also investigated. Interesting contrasting welfare effects between two types of agents emerge. Agents with temptation prefer a lower garnishment rate as tighter borrowing constraint prevents them from over-borrowing, while those without prefer better consumption smoothing enabled by a higher garnishment rate.

The method of instrumental variables was first used in the 1920s to estimate supply and demand elasticities, and later used to correct for measurement error in single-equation models. Recently, instrumental variables have been widely used to reduce bias from omitted variables in estimates of causal relationships such as the effect of schooling on earnings. Intuitively, instrumental variables methods use only a portion of the variability in key variables to estimate the relationships of interest; if the instruments are valid, that portion is unrelated to the omitted variables. We discuss the mechanics of instrumental variables, and the qualities that make for a good instrument, devoting particular attention to instruments that are derived from 'natural experiments.' A key feature of the natural experiments approach is the transparency and refutability of identifying assumptions. We also discuss the use of instrumental variables in randomized experiments.

This survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default, and some ongoing challenges for the literature. Key topics include the sources of the rise in personal bankruptcies, the importance of asymmetric information and the effects of developments in information technologies on consumer credit markets, delinquency and informal bankruptcy, debt collection and restructuring of distressed debt, the cyclical behavior of consumer debt and default, and the insurance role of household debt. Implications for welfare analysis and policy design are discussed. Several theoretical contributions and approaches to modeling the consumer credit markets are also highlighted.

We characterize the time-series properties of group-level consumption, income, and interest rates using microdata. We relate the coefficients of moving average representations to structural parameters of theoretical models of consumption behavior. Using long time series of cross sections to construct synthetic panel data for the United Kingdom, we find that for high-educated individuals the Euler equation restrictions are not rejected, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is higher than one, and there is evidence of “excess smoothness” of consumption. Low-educated individuals, conversely, exhibit excess sensitivity of consumption to past income, and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not statistically different from zero.

The paper investigates the non-performing loans (NPLs) in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) in the period of 1998–2011. The paper finds that the level of NPLs can be attributed to both macroeconomic conditions and banks’ specific factors, though the latter set of factors was found to have a relatively low explanatory power. The examination of the feedback effects broadly confirms the strong macro-financial linkages in the region. While NPLs were found to respond to macroeconomic conditions, such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation, the analysis also indicates that there are strong feedback effects from the banking system to the real economy, thus suggesting that the high NPLs that many CESEE countries currently face adversely affect the pace economic recovery.

Limited commitment for the repayment of unsecured consumer debt originates from two places: (i) formal bankruptcy laws granting a partial or complete legal removal of unsecured debts under certain circumstances, and (ii) informal default followed by renegotiation, “delinquency.” In the US, both channels are used routinely. The usefulness of each form of debt relief depends on the costs and benefits available through the other. This paper introduces a model of unsecured consumer credit in the presence of both bankruptcy and delinquency. Our model suggests that, in practice, bankruptcy and delinquency serve different purposes, with each being used to insure a particular type of income shock. Our results also indicate that these two options likely interact in important ways. We show that stricter control of default via tougher treatment of delinquent debtors can be counterproductive by increasing the risk of bankruptcy by enough to lower credit use overall – something consistent with cross-state comparisons in the U.S – in a way that lowers welfare.

Frank Schorfheide is Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. He is interested in the estimation of DSGE models, Bayesian methods, vector autoregressions.

Progress on the question of whether policymakers should respond directly to financial variables requires a realistic economic model that captures the links between asset prices, credit expansion, and real economic activity. Standard DSGE models with fully-rational expectations have difficulty producing large swings in house prices and household debt thatresemble the patterns observed in many developed countries over the past decade. We introduce excess volatility into an otherwise standard DSGE model by allowing a fraction of households to depart from fully-rational expectations. Specifically, we show that theintroduction of simple moving-average forecast rules for a subset of households can significantly magnify the volatility and persistence of house prices and household debt relative to otherwise similar model with fully-rational expectations. We evaluate various policy actions that might be used to dampen the resulting excess volatility, including a direct response to house price growth or credit growth in the central bank's interest rate rule, the imposition of more restrictive loan-to-value ratios, and the use of a modified collateral constraint that takes into account the borrower's loan-to-income ratio. Of these, we find that a loan-to-income constraint is the most effective tool for dampening overall excess volatility in the model economy. We find that while an interest-rate response to house price growth or credit growth can stabilize some economic variables, it can significantly magnify the volatility of others, particularly inflation.

which the relationships are not exact, so that a set of ideal economic variables is assumed to be generated by a set of dynamic stochastic relationships, as in Koopmans [12], and the actual economic time series are assumed to differ from the ideal economic variables because of random disturbances or measurement errors. The asymptotic error variance matrix for the coefficients of one of the relationships is obtained in the case in which these relationships are estimated using instrumental variables. With this variance matrix we are able to discuss the problem of choice that arises when there are more instrumental variables available than the minimum number required to enable the method to be used. A method of estimation is derived which involves a characteristic equation already considered by Hotelling in defining the canonical correlation [10]. This method was previously suggested by Durbin [7]. The same estimates would be obtained by the maximum-likelihood limited

The three-equation New-Keynesian model advocated by Woodford (2003) as a self-contained system on which to base monetary policy analysis is shown to be inconsistent in the sense that its long-run static equilibrium solution implies that the interest rate is determined from two of the system’s equations, while the price level is left undetermined. The inconsistency is remedied by replacing the Taylor rule with a standard money demand equation. The modified system is seen to possess the key properties of monetarist theory for the long run, i.e. monetary neutrality with respect to real output and the real interest rate and proportionality between money and prices. Both the modified and the original New-Keynesian models are estimated on US data and their dynamic properties are examined by impulse response analysis. Our research suggests that the economic and monetary analysis of the European Central Bank could be unified into a single framework.

We study pricing and contract design in the subprime auto sales market. We develop a model of the demand for financed purchases that incorporates both adverse selection and moral hazard effects, and estimate the model using detailed transaction-level data. We use the model to quantify selection and repayment problems and show that different contracting terms, in particular car price and required down payment, resolve very different pricing trade-offs. We also evaluate the returns to credit scoring that allows sellers to customize financing terms to individual applicants. Our empirical approach shows how standard tools for analyzing demand and supply in traditional product markets extend to contract markets where agreement and performance are separated in time, so firms care about both the quantity and quality of demand.

Closed exchange and production-and-exchange economies may have multiple equilibria, a fact that is usually ignored in macroeconomic models. Our basic argument is that default and bankruptcy laws are required to prevent strategic default, and these laws can also serve to provide the conditions for uniqueness. In this paper, we report experimental evidence on the effectiveness of this approach to resolving multiplicity: a society can assign default penalties on fiat money so that the economy selects one of the equilibria. Our data show that the choice of default penalty takes the economy close to the chosen equilibrium. The theory and evidence together reinforce the idea that accounting, bankruptcy and possibly other aspects of social mechanisms play an important role in resolving the otherwise mathematically intractable challenges associated with multiplicity of equilibria in closed economies.

Closed exchange and production-and-exchange economies may have multiple equilibria, a fact that is usually ignored in macroeconomic models. Our basic argument is that default and bankruptcy laws are required to prevent strategic default, and these laws can also serve to provide the conditions for uniqueness. In this paper we report experimental evidence on the effectiveness of this approach to resolving multiplicity: society can assign default penalties on fiat money so the economy selects one of the equilibria. Our data show that the choice of default penalty takes the economy close to the chosen equilibrium. The theory and evidence together reinforce the idea that accounting, bankruptcy and possibly other aspects of social mechanisms play an important role in resolving the otherwise mathematically intractable challenges associated with multiplicity of equilibria in closed economies. Additionally we discuss the politico-economic meaning and experimental implications of default penalties that support an active bankruptcy-modified competitive equilibrium.

In monetary policy strategies geared towards maintaining price stability, conditional and unconditional forecasts of inflation and output play an important role. In this article we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian techniques, can become an additional useful tool in the forecasting kit of central banks. First, we show that the forecasting performance of such models compares well with a-theoretical vector autoregressions. Moreover, we illustrate how the posterior distribution of the model can be used to calculate the complete distribution of the forecast, as well as various inflation risk measures that have been proposed in the literature. Finally, the structural nature of the model allows computing forecasts conditional on a policy path. It also allows examination of the structural sources of the forecast errors and their implications for monetary policy. Using those tools, we analyse macroeconomic developments in the euro area since the start of EMU.

Misspecification tests play an important role in detecting unreliable and inadequate economic models. This book brings together many results from the growing literature in econometrics on misspecification testing. It provides theoretical analyses and convenient methods for application. The main emphasis is on the Lagrange multiplier principle, which provides considerable unification, although several other approaches are also considered. The author also examines general checks for model adequacy that do not involve formulation of an alternative hypothesis. General and specific tests are discussed in the context of multiple regression models, systems of simultaneous equations, and models with qualitative or limited dependent variables.

We present a novel structural estimation procedure for models of intertemporal allocation. This is based on modelling expectations
errors directly; we refer to it as synthetic residual estimation (SRE). The flexibility of SRE allows us to account for measurement
error in consumption and for heterogeneity in intertemporal allocation parameters. An investigation of the small sample properties
of the SRE estimator indicates that it dominates generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of both exact and approximate
Euler equations in the case when we have short panels and noisy consumption data. We apply SRE to two panels drawn from the
Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and estimate the joint distribution of the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal
substitution. We reject strongly homogeneity of the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. We find
that, on average, the more educated are more patient and less willing to substitute intertemporally than the less educated.
Within education strata, patience and willingness to substitute are positively correlated.

We study a competitive credit market equilibrium in which all agents are risk neutral and lenders a priori unaware of borrowers' default probabilities. Admissible credit contracts are characterized by the credit granting probability, the loan quantity, the loan interest rate and the collateral required. The principal result is that in equilibrium lower risk borrowers pay higher interest rates than higher risk borrowers; moreover, the lower risk borrowers get more credit in equilibrium than they would with full information. No credit is rationed and collateral requirements are higher for the lower risk borrowers.

New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output, especially after taking into account the small-sample bias in GMM.

In this paper we reconcile two opposing views about the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). Empirical studies using aggregate consumption data typically find the EIS to be close to zero, whereas calibrated models designed to match growth and fluctuations facts typically require it to be close to one. This contradiction is resolved when two kinds of heterogeneity are acknowledged: one, the majority of households do not participate in stock markets; and two, the EIS increases with wealth. We introduce these two features into a standard real business cycle model. First, limited participation creates substantial wealth inequality as in the U.S. data. Consequently, the properties of aggregates directly linked to wealth (e.g., investment and output) are mainly determined by the (high-EIS) stockholders. Since consumption is much more evenly distributed than is wealth, estimation from aggregate consumption uncovers the low EIS of the majority (i.e., the poor).

Prospect theory has been the focus of increasing attention in many fields of economics. However, it has scarcely been addressed in macroeconomic growth models—neither on theoretical nor on empirical grounds. In this paper we use prospect theory in a stochastic optimal growth model. Thereafter, the focus lies on linking the Euler equation obtained from a prospect theory growth model of this kind to real macroeconomic data. We will use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to test the implications of such a non-linear prospect utility Euler equation. Our results indicate that loss aversion can be traced in aggregate macroeconomic time series.

For testing that an underlying population is normally distributed the skewness and kurtosis statistics, Öb1 and b2, and the D'Agostino-Pearson K2 statistic that combines these two statistics have been shown to be powerful and informative tests. Their use, however, has not been as prevalent as their usefulness. We review these tests and show how readily available and popular statistical software can be used to implement them. Their relationship to deviations from linearity in normal probability plotting is presented.

In the recent subprime crisis, many individuals defaulted on their loans. Though the institutional sources of defaulting and delinquencies were much debated in the aftermath of the crisis, much less attention was given to individual differences in defaulting behavior. How do individuals decide whether to repay borrowed money? The decision to default can be viewed as an intertemporal choice, as defaulting provides monetary benefits in the near future and costs in the more distant future (Chatterjee, Corbae, Nakajima, & Rios-Rull, 2007; Fehr, 2002). Therefore, interpersonal differences in time discounting may influence defaulting. Psychological research shows substantial heterogeneity in time discounting and often large degrees of time discounting, especially if immediate rewards are available (e.g., Frederick, Loewenstein, & O’Donoghue, 2002; Kirby & Herrnstein, 1995). Measured time discounting is predictive of life outcomes such as scholastic achievement and health-related behavior (Chabris, Laibson, Morris, Schuldt, & Taubinsky, 2008; Chapman, 1996; Eigsti et al., 2006; Kirby, Petry, & Bickel, 1999; Mischel, Shoda, & Rodriguez, 1989). In this report, we document that the degree of time discounting predicts repayment as measured using the standard U.S. metric of creditworthiness, an individual’s Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) credit score. The component of time discounting previously found to be associated with deliberate decision making (Figner et al., 2010; McClure, Laibson, Loewenstein, & Cohen, 2004) is more predictive of creditworthiness than is the immediacy-bias component associated with affective or impulsive decision making. The findings indicate that time discounting predicts creditworthiness and that repayment decisions may be associated with deliberative, rather than affective, processes.

One of the important determinants of the response of saving and consumption to the real interest rate is the ela sticity of intertemporal substitution. That elasticity can be measure d by the response of the rate of change of consumption to changes in the expected real interest rate. A detailed study of data for the twe ntieth-century United States shows no strong evidence that the elasti city of intertemporal substitution is positive. Earlier findings of s ubstantially positive elasticities are reversed when appropriate esti mation methods are used. Copyright 1988 by University of Chicago Press.

This paper asks whether the continued accumulation, or mild dissaving, observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime. In the absence of annuities, after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints, under constant relative risk aversion, uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is "small." Illustrative computations, based on actual income and survival data, show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect. The reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly.

Optimization of the part of consumers is shown to imply that the marginal utility of consumption evolves according to a random walk with trend. To a reasonable approximation, consumption itself should evolve in the same way. In particular, no variable apart from current consumption should be of any value in predicting future consumption. This implication is tested with time-series data for the postwar United States. It is confirmed for real disposable income, which has no predictive power for consumption, but rejected for an index of stock prices. The paper concludes that the evidence supports a modified version of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis.

The paper presents empirical evidence based on the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey that accounting for limited asset market participation is important for estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Differences in estimates of the EIS between asset holders and nonasset holders are large and statistically significant. This is the case whether estimating the EIS on the basis of the Euler equation for stock index returns or the Euler equation for Treasury bills, in each case distinguishing between asset holders and nonasset holders as best as possible. Estimates of the EIS are around 0.30.4 for stockholders and around 0.81 for bondholders and are larger for households with larger asset holdings within these two groups.

We construct a life cycle model that delivers realistic behavior for both equity holdings and borrowing. The key model ingredient is a wedge between the cost of borrowing and the risk-free investment return. Borrowing can either raise or lower equity demand, depending on the cost of borrowing. A borrowing rate equal to the expected return on equity-which we show roughly matches the data-minimizes the demand for equity. Alternative models with no borrowing or limited borrowing at the risk-free rate cannot simultaneously fit empirical evidence on borrowing and equity holdings. Copyright Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

To evaluate loan applicants, banks increasingly use credit scoring models. The objective of such models typically is to minimize default rates or the number of incorrectly classified loans. Thereby they fail to take into account that loans are multiperiod contracts, for which reason it is important for banks not only to know if but also when a loan will default. In this paper a bivariate tobit model with a variable censoring threshold and sample selection effects is estimated for (1) the decision to provide a loan or not and (2) the survival time of granted loans. The model proves to be an effective tool to separate applicants with short and with long survival times. The bank's loan provision process is shown to be inefficient: loans are granted in a way that conflicts with both default risk minimization and survival time maximization. There is thus no trade-off between higher default risk and higher return in the lending policy. Copyright (c) 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

In this paper we consider conditions under which the estimation of a log-linearized Euler equation for consumption yields consistent estimates of the preference parameters. When utility is isoelastic and a sample covering a long time period is available, consistent estimates are obtained from the log-linearized Euler equation when the innovations to the conditional variance of consumption growth are uncorrelated with the instruments typically used in estimation. We perform a Montecarlo experiment, consisting in solving and simulating a simple life cycle model under uncertainty, and show that in most situations, the estimates obtained from the log-linearized equation are not systematically biased. This is true even when we introduce heteroscedasticity in the process generating income. The only exception is when discount rates are very high (e.g. 47% per year). This problem arises because consumers are nearly always close to the maximum borrowing limit: the estimation bias is unrelated to the linearization and estimates using nonlinear GMM are as bad. Across all our situations, estimation using a log-linearized Euler equation does better than nonlinear GMM. Finally, we plot life cycle profiles for the variance of consumption growth, which, except when the discount factor is very high, is remarkably flat. This implies that claims that demographic variables in log-linearized Euler equations capture changes in the variance of consumption growth are unwarranted. (Copyright: Elsevier)

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with interactions between an heterogeneous banking sector and other private agents. We introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks, and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbankmarket. Our aim is to understand the importance of supervisory and monetary authorities to restore financial stability. The model is calibrated against real data and used for simulations. We show that liquidity injections reduce financial instability but have ambiguous effects on output fluctuations. The model also confirms the partial equilibrium literature results on the procyclicality of Basel II.

This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates--a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.