ArticlePublisher preview available

A Demographic Lifeline? Immigration and Hispanic Population Growth in Rural America

Authors:
Daniel T. Lichter
Daniel T. Lichter
Daniel T. Lichter
  • This person is not on ResearchGate, or hasn't claimed this research yet.
Kenneth M. Johnson
Kenneth M. Johnson
Kenneth M. Johnson
  • This person is not on ResearchGate, or hasn't claimed this research yet.
Read publisher preview
Download citation
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract and Figures

Can immigration save rural and small town America? Our goal is to highlight the new racial dynamics of population change in nonmetropolitan areas, where slowing population growth rates since 1990 eventuated in widespread depopulation during the post-2010 period. We use 3141 counties as the unit of analysis, tracking population change data over the 1990 to 2017 period. Our results, based on decennial census counts and population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, show that Hispanic population growth has been spatially ubiquitous, occurring in both declining and growing nonmetropolitan counties. Hispanic growth has slowed but not reversed chronic declines in rural population. Significantly, the growth of Latinos benefited a majority of historically depopulating or declining nonmetropolitan counties as well as nonmetropolitan counties that have continued to grow. Our analyses also reveal substantial heterogeneity in patterns of population change in nonmetropolitan America. Latino population growth often makes the difference between overall county population growth and decline. Nearly 200 nonmetropolitan counties grew during the 2010–2017 period, but only because Hispanic population increases offset non-Hispanic population declines. For these counties, which account for about 10 percent of all nonmetropolitan counties, Latinos clearly provided a demographic lifeline. Hispanics population gains were usually insufficient to reverse population declines in historically depopulating counties but nevertheless slowed the pace of decline. Hispanic growth was greatest in counties where the population was growing, resulting in a demographic multiplier effect.
Figures - available from: Population Research and Policy Review
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
A preview of this full-text is provided by Springer Nature.
Learn more
Content available from Population Research and Policy Review
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
Vol.:(0123456789)
Population Research and Policy Review (2020) 39:785–803
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09605-8
1 3
ORIGINAL PAPER
A Demographic Lifeline? Immigration andHispanic
Population Growth inRural America
DanielT.Lichter1 · KennethM.Johnson2
Received: 21 December 2019 / Accepted: 23 August 2020 / Published online: 31 August 2020
© Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Can immigration save rural and small town America? Our goal is to highlight the
new racial dynamics of population change in nonmetropolitan areas, where slowing
population growth rates since 1990 eventuated in widespread depopulation during
the post-2010 period. We use 3141 counties as the unit of analysis, tracking popula-
tion change data over the 1990 to 2017 period. Our results, based on decennial cen-
sus counts and population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, show that His-
panic population growth has been spatially ubiquitous, occurring in both declining
and growing nonmetropolitan counties. Hispanic growth has slowed but not reversed
chronic declines in rural population. Significantly, the growth of Latinos benefited
a majority of historically depopulating or declining nonmetropolitan counties as
well as nonmetropolitan counties that have continued to grow. Our analyses also
reveal substantial heterogeneity in patterns of population change in nonmetropoli-
tan America. Latino population growth often makes the difference between overall
county population growth and decline. Nearly 200 nonmetropolitan counties grew
during the 2010–2017 period, but only because Hispanic population increases off-
set non-Hispanic population declines. For these counties, which account for about
10 percent of all nonmetropolitan counties, Latinos clearly provided a demographic
lifeline. Hispanics population gains were usually insufficient to reverse population
declines in historically depopulating counties but nevertheless slowed the pace of
decline. Hispanic growth was greatest in counties where the population was grow-
ing, resulting in a demographic multiplier effect.
Keywords Population growth· Immigration· Nonmetropolitan· Migration·
Depopulation· Rural· census
Earlier drafts of this paper were presented at the conference of the European Society for Rural
Sociology, Trondheim, Norway, June 25-28, 2019, and at the annual meetings of the Rural
Sociological Society, Richmond, VA, August 7-10, 2019. The authors acknowledge the helpful
comments of the co-editors and the external reviewers.
* Daniel T. Lichter
Dtl28@cornell.edu
Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
... Educational attainment has been a challenge among Hispanics in the US. Research indicates that despite making significant strides in workforce and education in the last decade, Hispanics are academically disadvantaged as they are one of the least educated ethnic groups living in the US (Lichter & Johnson, 2020). They further explain that the majority of the Hispanic students start learning with limited social and economic resources as well as ill-equipped schools leading to educational disparities. ...
... Despite a steady increase in population as earlier discussed, Hispanic ethnic groups continue to face educational attainment challenges which make them the least educated population in the US . Such alarming low educational attainment despite their high population should be a cause for concern in the US (Lichter & Johnson, 2020;. The disparity in educational achievement has been a consistent problem among the Hispanic population that should be addressed to meet the educational needs of its growing population in the US. ...
Understanding Assimilation within Higher Education
Article
Full-text available
  • Nov 2024
Latino immigrants who often experience discrimination lack assimilation. The purpose of this exploration was to better understand the historical lack of assimilation and the relationship, in particular the access to higher education. In this study, assimilation was measured according to English mastery by Spanish speakers. The research question was focused on what extent the level of education relates to assimilation for Latinos in the US. A correlational design with multiple regression analysis was used in this study to analyze the Latino National Survey of 2006 secondary data (N =8634). Results indicated that education was significant. Further, current trends show an increased opportunity for education in the Latino group. There is also an increased need for higher education beyond 2030 in the US. The implications for social change include research-based information to develop programs for Latinos to adapt into the US population. Lastly, the author’s positionality will be discussed.
View
... In recent decades, Hispanic populations have increased substantially in nontraditional rural and suburban destinations often characterized by less economically complex industrial structures (e.g., agriculture, food processing, lower-skilled manufacturing), slowing aggregate declines in rural populations. Coinciding "white flight" from these new destinations has resulted in greater instances of racial and ethnic segregation in these communities (Lichter et al., 2010;Crowder et al., 2011;Lichter 2012;Lichter & Johnson, 2020). Meanwhile, trends of net in-migration of Black Americans to the southeastern US may be characterized by a set of contradictory economic and non-economic push and pull factors resulting in a higher influx of African Americans born in the southeast to more economically prosperous communities in the southeast and a higher influx of African Americans born outside the southeast to less economically prosperous communities in the southeast (Ambinakudige et al., 2012;Brown & Cromartie, 2006;Hunt et al., 2008). ...
Economic Complexity and Divergent Population Growth by Race and Rurality
Article
Full-text available
  • Feb 2025
Economic complexity (EC) measures the diversification and domestic comparative advantage of industry in an economy. Originally applied to studies of global economic development, dominant frameworks suggest the extent of a place’s economic capabilities underlies its economic and population growth potential, and ascribe to the universalistic notion that economic growth generates population growth. Limited research has extended the observed linkages between EC and economic and population growth in a subnational context, focusing solely on metropolitan/micropolitan contexts and neglecting potential spatialized forces that might promote variation in the relationship, especially in rural areas. After computing EC estimates for Commuting Zones (CZs), a typology inclusive of metropolitan, micropolitan, and non-metropolitan areas, we use spatial modeling techniques to investigate whether economic complexity relates to population growth and net in-migration uniformly by rurality and for ethnoracial groups. In contrast to universalistic assumptions and our expectations that complexity would be less predictive of growth in non-metro contexts, we find that higher EC more strongly associates with population growth and net in-migration in non-metro contexts. Our findings also suggest that there is a racial dimension to EC, with higher EC CZs experiencing net-inflows of White populations and net-outflows of Asian, Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous populations. Study results suggest spatially and racially disparate implications of regional economic growth and development, challenging conventional assumptions of the widely distributed benefits of economic development on less resourced ethnoracial groups, especially in non-metro contexts.
View
... Indeed, people with ancestry from Latin America are now the most rapidly growing rural population in America (Crowley et al., 2015). In other words, rural migrant populations are not just vital to rural agricultural economy (Ramos, 2016), there is some suggestion that "the attraction of immigrant groups might well be a viable rural development strategy" (Slack & Jensen, 2020, p. 779; see also Lichter & Johnson, 2020). Thus, services that support and help maintain rural migrant communities and their members' well-being may be essential to the overall vitality of relevant non-metro areas and should be researched accordingly. ...
Nurse Ambassadors as a Trauma-Informed Strategy to Encourage Rural Migrant Populations’ Use of Sexual Assault Victim Service
Article
Full-text available
  • Dec 2024
Rural migrants are vital to rural areas in terms of their engagement in the agricultural economy and as the fastest growing population in rural areas in the United States. Yet, rural migrants do not have access to all the education, services, and resources they need, including sexual assault education and care. In this paper we consider a novel approach, a Nurse Ambassador model that integrates trauma-informed care, as a strategy to increase knowledge about and access to sexual assault services for members of a large rural migrant community. A nurse practitioner specialized in sexual assault, in the Nurse Ambassador role, can offer expertise from direct clinical care to targeted educational support. Nurse Ambassador programs have been used effectively within patient support programs to provide clinical and/or educational support to clients perceived to be at risk for treatment abandonment or medication non-adherence and to decrease overall health care costs for patients with chronic diseases. Yet there is no research on their utilization to address sexual assault. Using a case study approach grounded in a community assessment of a rural area in a southern state, we share a first-person narrative from a Nurse Ambassador working within a rape crisis center to describe how such a position might facilitate community-based knowledge-building and enhanced trauma-informed service delivery, specifically for rural migrant survivors. Our study details the responsibilities, strategies, engagements, challenges and opportunities for a Nurse Ambassador model working to educate about and provide services to address sexual assault in a rural domain.
View
Older Rural Stayers and Movers: Why (Not) to Age in Place in the Countryside?
Article
  • Dec 2024
  • POPUL SPACE PLACE
This article aims to explore (im)mobility patterns of older adults living in small rural Iowa towns. The research questions addressed were focused on the older adults’ paths to their current place of residence, their plans regarding possible relocation in the future, as well as how these are intertwined, given the life course perspective. The data are drawn from in‐depth interviews conducted with 25 residents aged 65 years and over in four rural Iowa communities. Insights are also gained from 29 interviews with local stakeholders from these towns. The analysis shows that the great majority of older adults plan on staying put due to a mixture of mostly social, functional and biographical aspects of place attachment. However, these are more or less significant depending on older interviewees’ past mobility experiences. Only a few do not exclude relocation in the future. These outcomes provide a new perspective regarding classical models of older adults’ mobility over the life course.
View
View
View
Racial Economic Segregation across U.S. Public Schools, 1991–2022
Article
  • Oct 2024
Despite its substantive importance as the strongest predictor of racial achievement gaps, racial economic segregation has been understudied in the previous literature on segregation. This paper describes trends in racial economic segregation over the last three decades and decomposes these trends into different geographic scales (e.g., between-state, between-district, and within-district segregation). Racial economic segregation has decreased since the late 1990s, yet Black students are still considerably isolated in schools with higher poverty rates. Between-district segregation has been the largest component of racial economic segregation, whereas within-district segregation has grown steadily during the last three decades. Findings from this study suggest the imperativeness of interdistrict policy remedies while also highlighting intradistrict policy needs for promoting student diversity across schools in the district.
View
Uneven Growth and Unexpected Drivers of Ethnoracial Diversity across Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan America
Article
  • Sep 2024
  • RURAL SOCIOL
High levels of ethnoracial diversity are a defining demographic characteristic of U.S. metropolitan areas, but the role of diversity in nonmetropolitan areas is often underappreciated. Here, we use Decennial Census data from 2000 to 2020 to evaluate growing ethnoracial diversity in nonmetropolitan counties and to highlight the uneven geographic distribution of diversity, and changes therein, across nonmetropolitan America. We measure levels of diversity using Simpson's Diversity Index and describe underlying changes in ethnoracial composition. We then produce counterfactual estimates to measure how population change among seven ethnoracial groups has contributed to changes in diversity and compare exposure to diversity across geography and ethnoracial groups. We find that ethnoracial diversity in nonmetropolitan counties has grown by nearly thirty percent in the past twenty years but has remained firmly below that of metropolitan counties. Importantly, nonmetropolitan diversity is increasing due to both growing multiracial and Hispanic populations and the decreasing absolute size of White populations. County‐level exposure to diversity among White populations and populations from minoritized ethnoracial groups has also converged substantially. Overall, growing nonmetropolitan diversity is driven by multiple complex sources and is spatially heterogeneous. Understanding these patterns is important given the centrality of ethnoracial change to the nation's demographic future.
View
Home Price Change and Ethno-racial Residential Segregation: Temporal Relationships at the Metro Level
Article
  • Jul 2024
Although rates of residential racial segregation and home prices are undoubtedly related, the temporal nature of the relationship has rarely been studied. Using fixed effects models in a cross-lagged framework, we examine how prior changes in segregation and home prices at the metro level predict changes in the other. Our findings suggest that increases in home prices predict increasing racial segregation years later, but increases in segregation fail to predict subsequent change in home values. Metros that experience a 1 standard deviation increase in home prices experience an associated 0.25 standard deviation increase in Black-White segregation 10 years later and a 0.18 standard deviation increase 20 years later. No relationship is observed for Hispanic-White segregation. We discuss implications for understanding the economic underpinnings of segregation. Findings also offer insight into future segregation trends and illuminate how changes in the housing market may drive demographic trends more broadly.
View
View
Subnational Non‐Hispanic White Natural Decrease in the United States
Article
  • Mar 2020
This research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non‐Hispanic Whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over‐65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.
View
Hope turned sour: second-generation incorporation and mobility in U.S. new immigrant destinations
Article
  • Jan 2020
The number and size of “new immigrant destinations” (NIDs) in the United States grew quickly over the 1990s and 2000s, but Latino newcomers residing in them witnessed a profound negative turn in institutional and political reception after 2005. The present article takes stock of the causes and consequences of this shift, showing how intensifying enforcement and exclusionary policy-making at the federal and state levels after 2005 stoked anti-immigrant sentiment and institutional closure in many NIDs, especially in the South. Though the Latino “second generation” is just now beginning to come of age and to enter the workforce in NIDs, offering new opportunities for data collection and analysis going forward, the extant literature suggests that this shift has significantly weakened its prospects for structural incorporation and upward economic mobility, which are now strongly stratified by citizenship and legal status.
View
Small‐City Dualism in the Metro Hinterland: The Racialized “Brooklynization” of New York's Hudson Valley
Article
  • Aug 2019
How does the metropolis influence population change and amenity development in small cities of the adjacent hinterland? We examine one scenario in five cities of New York state's Hudson Valley, a region north of metropolitan New York City that reveals dual trajectories of urban change. In some cities, immigrant revitalization brings population growth, revitalizes main street economies, and extends cities' majority‐minority legacies. In other cities, amenity development attracts metropolitan newcomers, triggers residential and retail gentrification, sustains majority‐white demographics, and fails to offset out‐migration associated with rustbelt decline. These dual trajectories are connected through a metropolitan process of “Brooklynization”: sociospatial changes in hinterland regions set in motion by racialized amenity pursuits. Culturally, metropolitan outsiders encounter small cities through ‘rural’ frameworks that emphasize outdoor/agricultural amenities, small‐town ‘authenticity,’ and the implicit whiteness of the hinterland landscape. Economically, immigrant revitalization and amenity development are connected via linked migration that channels an immigrant proletariat to some cities and the amenity migrants they labor for to other cities and towns.
View
View
Community Resiliency in Declining Small Towns: Impact of Population Loss on Quality of Life over 20 Years
Article
  • Dec 2019
  • RURAL SOCIOL
This analysis seeks to understand why some small towns have improved quality of life (QoL) over the past 20 years despite sizable population losses. Using a longitudinal data set of small towns in Iowa collected every 10 years since 1994, I measure the resiliency or vulnerability of declining towns based on change in subjective QoL, and then model the socioeconomic correlates along a resilient‐decline index. Community resiliency is enhanced by the process of creating bridging social capital, not the quantity available for use. By contrast, the quantity of both internal and external linking social capital promotes resiliency by linking residents to local and outside power structures, but the growth of these linkages has no impact. Bonding social capital indirectly helps resiliency by increasing internal linkages that foster local participation, but hinders it by decreasing external ones that limit access to outside resources. Jobs in goods‐producing industries like manufacturing directly promote resiliency by providing more secure employment, plus indirectly promote it by increasing bridging ties and external linkages. Growing poverty and income disparities make declining places more vulnerable by reducing QoL and external linkages. I discuss local strategies promoting resiliency and QoL.
View
Strangers in their hometown: Demographic change, revitalization and community engagement in new Latino destinations
Article
  • Dec 2018
Rapid economic, demographic and social change in America's new Latino destinations has generated concerns about changing quality of life in rural communities. Findings from prior research suggest that the arrival of socioeconomically vulnerable newcomers may undermine demographic foundations of community engagement, and that heterogeneity, segregation, race/ethnic tension, and rising income inequality may reduce aggregate engagement in local affairs. Research on new Latino destinations, however, points to unique attributes of newcomers that may offset these challenges or even enhance community life. In this study, we investigate changes in demographic foundations for participation, community revitalization and shifts in economic, civic and political activity in new nonmetropolitan Latino destinations over the 1990s and 2000s. Using data from the Census of Population, American Community Survey, County Business Patterns, Census of Religion, and voting records, and controlling for relevant county attributes, we compare trajectories of counties that received large numbers of Latinos after 1990 to similar counties that did not experience rapid Latino growth. Difference-in-difference regression analyses reveal that despite erosion of foundations for participation, most notably education, economic well-being and English-language proficiency, Latino influxes have helped to revitalize new destination communities and promoted economic activity conducive to community engagement. Contrary to claims that individuals in more diverse environments withdraw from community life and “hunker down” at home (Putnam 2007), we find no evidence that diversification has reduced community participation; instead, residents of new communities have become more civically and politically engaged.
View
Trends in Fertility and Mother's Age at First Birth Among Rural and Metropolitan Counties: United States, 2007-2017
Article
  • Oct 2018
Since the most recent peak in the total fertility rate (the estimated number of lifetime births expected per 1,000 women) in 2007, the United States has experienced a decreasing total fertility rate and an increasing mean, or average, age of mothers at first birth (1-4). Previous research shows rural areas have persistently higher fertility and worse birth outcomes compared with metropolitan (metro) areas (2,5-8). This report describes trends and differences in total fertility rates and mean maternal age at first birth overall, and by race and Hispanic origin, between rural and small or medium metro, and rural and large metro counties, from 2007 through 2017.
View
Using entrepreneurial social infrastructure to understand smart shrinkage in small towns
Article
  • Nov 2018
  • J RURAL STUD
Population loss in North America is often viewed as a problem best addressed through economic development efforts promoting growth. In Europe, an alternative view sees depopulation as a process needing to be managed properly, by scaling down community services and infrastructure while maintaining social equity. Called smart shrinkage, this approach argues places can lose population yet still possess a high quality of life. We first clarify the concept by distinguishing the outputs of smartness from its inputs using the entrepreneurial social infrastructure framework. Second, we apply the smart shrinkage concept to n = 98 small towns in the Midwestern state of Iowa using longitudinal data collected in 1994 and 2014. Shrinkage is measured by faster than average population loss; and smart outcomes by faster than average quality of life gains. We then examine correlates of smart shrinkage using demographic, economic, social capital, and civic engagement indicators. Demographic and geographic factors have little impact on smart shrinkage. Smart towns have stronger local labor markets, lower poverty and inequality, and job opportunities in goods-producing sectors. Lastly, smart shrinking towns exhibit higher social infrastructure by possessing more bridging social capital across diverse groups, greater quantities of linking social capital such as memberships in local organizations, and frequent civic engagement by participation in local projects. These activities are supported by a community culture of openness, tolerance, and support.
View
View
Spatial dispersion of U.S. national origin groups: Characteristics of dispersed immigrants and settlement places
Article
  • Feb 2018
This article examines the individual and economic context correlates of foreign‐born dispersion in the 2007–2011 period using confidential American Community Surveys and census data. For 40 national origin groups and other foreigners from 7 world regions, group‐specific settlement indicators for 741 geographic areas were used to estimate dispersion relationships to human capital, acculturation, settlement region, and economic context. A fixed‐effect model estimated with individual indicators, net of national origin, indicated that human capital and acculturation had relationships to dispersion that conformed to human capital and spatial assimilation theories but found that those relationships were attenuated or no longer significant after controlling for economic context. Individual and economic context correlates of dispersion also differed for Mexicans and non‐Mexicans. For both groups, the economic context measures that had the strongest relationships to dispersion were labour force shares in education/research/technology fields, and native‐born employment change between 1990 and 2000. Employment in agriculture and the military were significant for both Mexicans and non‐Mexicans but shares employed in manufacturing and construction were only significant for non‐Mexicans. Ordinary least squares (OLS) models for 40 origin countries indicated that internal migration status, residence in a household with a native‐born head, never married status, and English language fluency were significant correlates of dispersion for most groups. Having an advanced degree was also significantly related to dispersion for over half of the groups. Future studies should focus on the linkages between immigration histories and immigrants' human capital and how they shape the dispersion pathways that national origin groups take to different economic contexts.
View