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Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Professional Tennis
... However, the Wimbledon is five out of three. Therefore, innovations need to be taken to make the model satisfy the actual match situation better [27]. The introduction of the concept "variation of difference in momentum" (∆ṁ) provides a novel perspective on analyzing player performance dynamics. ...
This study examines the impact of momentum dynamics on tennis match outcomes, addressing the limitations of traditional performance prediction methods. Using data from the 2023 Wimbledon men’s singles matches, a data-driven framework was developed to analyze factors influencing player performance. Factor analysis identified key independent variables, while a decision-tree model optimized through random-forest and genetic algorithm techniques was employed to predict match outcomes. Momentum was quantified using the Kendall consistency test, which revealed a significant correlation between momentum shifts and match results. The analysis highlighted that variations in momentum difference between players are crucial predictors, achieving a success rate of 78%. Visualizations further demonstrated that momentum fluctuations closely align with critical match events, offering a detailed understanding of performance dynamics. At the same time, the model has also been applied to the prediction of other tennis games and even table tennis games. It can adaptively adjust the K value and has a good fitting effect.Compared to conventional statistical methods, which often overlook the role of momentum, this model provides deeper insights into the interplay between momentum and match outcomes. While the framework shows strong applicability to tennis, its extension to other sports, such as table tennis, requires further exploration. These findings underscore the importance of momentum in competitive sports, offering new perspectives for match analysis, player training, and strategic planning and paving the way for future research into momentum dynamics across various sports disciplines.
... Namely, the methodology strives to establish whether initial success breeds further success in sports competitions. Depken, Craig A. et al. [10] separate PM from SM and establish a fully rational model of best-of-three contests. And results show that both SM and PM contribute to the outcomes of best-of-three tennis contests. ...
The quantitative analysis of momentum is of great guiding significance to the adjustment of competition strategy and state of coaches and athletes in the field of sports. However, the existing momentum research is mainly explained from the perspective of economics, psychology and other theories, without quantitative analysis. Or after quantitative analysis, the model can only predict the results of the whole game, and cannot accurately predict the changes during the game. Therefore, using data from the 2023 Wimbledon men's singles final as a data set, we propose a momentum evaluation model, a state prediction model and an integrated machine learning model composed of XGBoost, LightGBM, GBDT, to resume the match flow, identify which player perform better at a specific time, and predict state fluctuation. Finally, the 2023 Wimbledon men's singles final match is perfectly visualized and the state fluctuation at each time in this match is accurately predicted. The results suggest that models we established have high prediction accuracy and high stability.
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