Article

Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector of a Small Island Developing State: A case study for the Bahamas

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Abstract

This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of climate change to the tourism sector on the islands of New Providence and adjacent Paradise Island in the Bahamas. The assessment was carried out by conducting a geospatial analysis of tourism establishments at risk using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We combined the geospatial analysis with publicly available databases to assess the integrated climate-related impacts pertaining to a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) economy. Our study estimated that many tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties at risk increases with a future scenario of a 1 m rise in sea level. While sea level rise (SLR) by itself only threatens a small number of properties, when combined with weak (Category 1), moderate (Category 3) and strong (Category 5) storms the resulting coastal flooding impacts 34%, 69%, and 83% of the tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts), respectively. In addition to flooding, properties are also susceptible to coastal erosion with 28% of the total hotels and resorts on the two islands being situated within 0–50 m and 60% of the tourism infrastructure within 0–100 m of the coastline. Considering the economic importance of the sector, the potential impacts on the tourism infrastructure will cause significant losses in revenue and employment for the two islands. Furthermore, the majority of the tourism on these islands is beach-based and visitor expenditures will decline due to their vulnerability. These losses will have far-reaching social-economic consequences for the Bahamas. Our findings reveal a need for integrated coastal zone management that incorporates tourism management strategies with adaptation measures to deal with climate change.

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... Previous research findings suggest that 48 out of 133 coastal resort properties in the Bahamas will be inundated partially or completely by 1 m sea-level rise and 50% of properties will be at risk under the scenario of 100 m of beach erosion (Scott, Simpson, et al., 2012). Many properties in the two main touristic islands of NP and adjacent Paradise Island (NP-PI) are currently situated in a storm surge zone and their extent increases with a future sea level rise of 1 m (Pathak, van Beynen, Akiwumi, & Lindeman, 2020). Climate change also threatens the coral reefs vital for tourism. ...
... and coral bleaching to the economic resilience of the accommodations sector. While not discussed here, supporting work for this study conducted geospatial mapping and found that a large proportion of the total tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts) on the islands of NP-PI are currently situated in Cat 3 (69%) and Cat 5 (83%) storm surge zones (Pathak et al., 2020). With the literature suggesting a potential increase in the frequency of severe Category 4 and 5 storms like Matthew and Dorian in the 21st century (Bender et al., 2010;Walsh et al., 2016), it is important to put such events in the context of sea level rise which will enhance the damage potential of such events. ...
Article
Tourism in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is vulnerable to climate change. Using the Bahamas as a case study, this study presents findings from a survey administered with property managers from the coastal accommodations sector to identify their adaptation strategies to tackle climate change. We also evaluate their adaptive capacity by developing SIDS‐specific indicators based on a capitals approach. Findings indicate that efforts toward adaptation were limited to disaster preparedness for hurricanes, reflecting a short‐term focus in the face of climate change uncertainties. In addition to the lack of finances and knowledge for incorporating adaptation measures, their capacity to adapt is diminished due to a lack of access to climate change information, skilled staff, and specific climate change planning reflecting limited human and institutional capitals. Recommendations are provided for strategies synergistic with the resilience focus of our paper such as ecosystem‐based adaptation and green jobs. The study informs tourism resilience and adaptation planning in the Bahamas which may apply to other SIDS.
... Although adaptive strategies are specific to each area, relevant authorities must ultimately consider and study more resilient mitigation strategies against the overall challenge of global climate change. Ultimately, an adaptation strategy involves education, policy, and technology, among other aspects, and the promotion of these strategies must be appropriate for the considered risk, incorporated into project design, implemented, maintained and/or monitored, and arranged to work in the long term (Pathak et al., 2021; IPCC AR6, 2021) [22,23]. That is to say, adaptive man-agement would require a long-lasting process based on social capacities, including resilient institutions, the multilevel governance system, and ecosystem services; in particular, it must be sure to take the local stakeholders' perceptions into account in the implemen- [24][25][26][27]. ...
... Although adaptive strategies are specific to each area, relevant authorities must ultimately consider and study more resilient mitigation strategies against the overall challenge of global climate change. Ultimately, an adaptation strategy involves education, policy, and technology, among other aspects, and the promotion of these strategies must be appropriate for the considered risk, incorporated into project design, implemented, maintained and/or monitored, and arranged to work in the long term (Pathak et al., 2021; IPCC AR6, 2021) [22,23]. That is to say, adaptive man-agement would require a long-lasting process based on social capacities, including resilient institutions, the multilevel governance system, and ecosystem services; in particular, it must be sure to take the local stakeholders' perceptions into account in the implemen- [24][25][26][27]. ...
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A coastal erosion risk assessment was framed as the basis for the intervention of coastal adaptation strategies under time-variant scenarios. The framework was devised to assess the influence of coastal erosion on coastal defense, the coastal inundation induced by the erosion-induced malfunction of defense, and risks using a downscaling analysis and the mechanism of the compound hazard interaction, which are innovative and practical for the application of coastal management in Taiwan. In addition, the vulnerable socio-economy was also taken into consideration in risk assessment. The adaptive strategy is proposed in terms of the risk origins and time-variance of risk forecasts, and the risk origins were assessed based on the Fuzzy Delphi Method and the analytic hierarchy process instead of subjective consideration. Within the erosion-induced hazard and risk assessments, this study considered erosion rates, decreases in defense elevation due to land subsidence, and population development in time-variant scenario analyses to estimate risk forecasts. Furthermore, a case study of the Yunlin coastal area was undertaken to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The presented results are informative for coastal hazard reduction and the promotion of the sustainable development of coastal zones.
... Few comprehensive assessments focus on multiple climate change stressors, for instance, Moghal and O'Connell's (2018) Most of them use a case study approach by focusing on a single community or country. One of the major advantages of this type of studies is to discuss the combined effects of climate change impacts, for instance SLR and storm surge (Pathak et al., 2021b). Yet this gap in the literature acts as a brake to classify impacts, and all the responses undertaken, to eventually understand success stories, and plan informed climate change adaptation strategies in the tourism sector of other SIDS. ...
... Furthermore, the majority of studies tend to be limited to one or more islands within one single country. such as the case of climate change impacts on the tourism sector in the islands of New Providence and Paradise Island in Bahamas (Pathak et al., 2021b) and a comprehensive study on the plans, policy and preparedness of the tourism sector in Barbados (Cumberbatch et al., 2018). Research on adaptation strategies in AIS connected to tourism is usually within a more comprehensive research on the climate change impact at national level, which only in some instances also include an analysis of the tourism sector (Etongo, 2019;Khan & Amelie, 2015). ...
Article
Tourism resembles an indispensable source for financing national development and securing local livelihoods in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with their sun-sea-sand tourism. Related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions counteract sectoral development as climate impacts have begun to severely reduce the attractiveness of destinations. This is valid especially for disaster-prone SIDS where slow and rapid onsetting phenomena and severe, frequent weather events are already experienced, increasingly putting tourist assets, infrastructure, local livelihoods and unique biodiversity under pressure. Against this background, this review synthesizes the recent climate change and tourism literature relating to main SIDS regions, highlighting what is at risk. The authors provide latest evidence of the role tourism plays for these islands and elaborate the peculiar climate risks, impacts and consequences for tourism development. The current state of adaptation is explored and research priorities in SIDS regions are highlighted. Whereas SIDS show high mitigation ambition, the significance of CO2 emissions along the value chain and especially related to the transport to SIDS destinations remains a problem that developed nations must address in their national emission reduction plans. Further research at the interface of climate change and tourism is needed, contributing to the decarbonisation of tourism and successful adaptation in SIDS.
... Approximately 89% of The Bahamas' tourist arrivals are from the United States and Canada alone. The industry, as with the nation itself, is at risk from climate change [13][14][15]. Although several products have been proposed by the Ministry of Tourism to restart the industry, the Blue Economy can also be relied upon to initiate a sustainable and inclusive recovery. ...
Article
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Following the global shutdown of tourism at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, small island developing states such as The Bahamas had their economies immobilized due to their heavy dependence on the industry. Beyond economic recovery in a post COVID-19 paradigm, the blue economy, blue growth, and associated activities offer pathways for a more resilient economy and is well-suited for The Bahamas. This paper suggests conduits for economic development using a traditional strength, coastal and marine tourism, in conjunction with the emerging fields of ocean renewable energy, offshore aquaculture, marine biotechnology, and bioprospecting. The interlinkages between each activity are discussed. Knowledge gaps in offshore aquaculture, ocean renewable energy, marine biotechnology, and marine environment monitoring are identified. In each sector case, strategic and tactical decision-making can be achieved through the exploitation of ocean numerical modeling and observations, and consequently should be invested in and developed alongside the requisite computational resources. Blue growth is encouraged, but instances of blue injustice are also highlighted. Crucially, pursuing blue economy activities should be given top national priority for economic recovery and prosperity.
... For instance, risk assessment have shown likely losses in terms of real estate value as well as potential income, due to storm surges in connection with sea-level rise (Sealy et al., 2014, Sealy andStrobl, 2017). Losses will have far-reaching socialeconomic consequences for The Bahamas because flooding and erosion due to global change impact tourism with significant losses in revenue (Pathak et al., 2021). The Bahamas National Report (2012) addresses those concerns with respect to global climate change, and included in the integrated management plan, adaptation strategies that focus on indirect economic benefits such as overcoming disincentives to sea level rise. ...
Article
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The study focuses on the impact of global changes in The Bahamas. The marine environment surrounding The Bahamas is described with satellite derived sea surface temperature, salinity, precipitation and chlorophyll concentrations. The data set used in this study covers a time frame of more than ten years, except for the measurement of sea surface salinity. The observed changes for precipitation and temperature are an indication for larger environmental fluctuations. In particular, interannual sea surface temperature measurements show for all seasons a warming trend although they have a slight difference in slope. Comparing the temperatures from 2010 with those predicted for 2035, it is evident that over a time frame of 25 years, the temperature for all seasons may increase above one degree centigrade. The highest predicted increase is observed for the period September to November with 1.7 °C, while lowest predicted increase is 1.0 °C for June to August. It is evident that the marine environment of The Bahamas is already exposed to a critical scenario related to the global warming trend.
... The NCCP is of utmost importance in the tourism activity since it recognizes the climate change impacts on this activity, namely in the job reduction and the threats to natural and built infrastructures. Therefore, there is an absolute need to strengthen and establish partnerships towards the protection of the ecosphere (Pathak et al., 2021). ...
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Considering the massive growth of tourism on a global scale and the threats involved, the trails must be understood as a geoscience phenomenon of tourist attraction offering a unique experience. The trail allows contact with the geoecosystem to understand the natural dynamics around the wear and tear of use and anthropic action, developing awareness about how to support it. Thus, the objective of this work is to apply the concept of carrying capacity as a useful tool for the planning of the local trail, anchored in the principles of hiking, recreational and leisure activities, as a way to stimulate the commitment to the geoecosystem, following the current official safety standards. Part of a private farm, the Davi Trail is located in the central region of Mucajaí, in the state of Roraima, Brazil, and it is the object of this research. The methodology followed a literature review and field visits carried out from March 10 to 12, 2021, intending to describe the trail, its altimetric profile and carrying capacity. As a result, the trail and its potential for the activity of geotourism are presented. The trail is located 51 km away from the state capital, in Boa Vista, with a well-maintained natural structure. It is an alternative to complement the income of local citizens, as well as contributing to environmental educational practices. The municipality's public policies should integrate the voice of citizens who have deep knowledge of the reality in Mucajaí, boosting the social entrepreneurship of the region and safeguarding the natural geoecosystem.
... 5 The Bahamas is a highly developed, developing country with laudable advances in finance, health, and education. 6 However, according to a 2019 Latin American Economic Report, the Bahamas has the second highest economic and social inequality in the Caribbean. 7 The country gained its independence in 1973 from the United Kingdom and continues to operate under a parliamentary government inherited from the British. ...
Article
Trauma clusters are formed when 2 or more disasters occur simultaneously and/or consecutively. These disasters have the propensity to potentiate health disparities. The purpose of this article is to share thoughts about critical caring theory and how the theory can inform holistic nursing action when health disparity amplifies trauma clustering.
... Besides the impact on nature, abnormal climate change caused by human activities also affects human activities in turn. Some studies show that it has different degrees of impact on agriculture, tourism, and other industries in various countries (Vernon, 2006;Andric et al., 2019;Arsum et al., 2020). ...
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With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather in cities, economic, ecological and social activities have been greatly impacted. The adverse effects of global extreme climate and effective governance have attracted more and more attention of scholars. Considering the differences between developed and developing countries in climate response capacity, a key issue is how to encourage developed countries to provide adequate assistance to developing countries and enhance their enthusiasm to participate in addressing climate change challenges. Given this background, we evaluated the carbon emission reduction effects of developing countries before and after a “quasi-natural experiment” which involved obtaining the assistance of climate-related funding from developed countries. Specifically, we analyzed the assistance behavior for recipient countries and found that climate assistance can effectively reduce the carbon emissions level of recipient countries, and this result has a better impact on non-island types and countries with higher levels of economic development. Furthermore, the achievement of this carbon emissions reduction target stems from the fact that climate assistance has promoted the optimization of the energy structure of recipient countries and promoted the substitution of renewable energy for coal consumption. In addition, climate-related development finance plays a significant role in promoting the scientific and technological level of recipient countries, especially the development impact of the adaptive climate-related development finance. Therefore, this paper suggests that the direction of climate assistance should focus more on island countries and countries with low economic development level, and pay more attention to the “coal withdrawal” of recipient countries and climate adaptation field.
... Research on the response of tourism activities to climate change requires more accurate high-resolution statistical data on specific activities. Most studies have shown that when using macroscale tourism data that mix multiple types of activities, the impact of climate change on tourism is negative Pathak et al., 2021;Scott et al., 2019;Turton et al., 2010;Varnajot & Saarinen, 2021). Studies have revealed that droughts caused by climate change have led to a serious decline in the tourist volume to major attractions in the Western Cape province of South Africa, as well as in tourist expenditure and hotel occupancy rates . ...
Article
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The lack of high-resolution tourist volume data for specific types of tourism activities poses a substantial obstacle to quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change. Here, a new method of generating daily tourist volume for cherry blossom viewing tourism from user-generated content (UGC) was proposed, based on which the daily tourist volume for cherry blossom viewing in 220 cities across China from 2010 to 2019 was generated and verified. Then, generalized additive model (GAM) and segmented regression were introduced to reveal the non-linear and threshold relationships between daily tourist volume and temperature. Finally, the trends in the daily tourist volume from 2020 to 2050 were simulated under two future climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP). The proposed method can provide methodological support for analyzing other specific types of tourism activities by generating alternative data on tourist volume. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Research on the response of tourism activities to climate change requires more accurate high-resolution statistical data on specific activities. Most studies have shown that when using macroscale tourism data that mix multiple types of activities, the impact of climate change on tourism is negative Pathak et al., 2021;Scott et al., 2019;Turton et al., 2010;Varnajot & Saarinen, 2021). Studies have revealed that droughts caused by climate change have led to a serious decline in the tourist volume to major attractions in the Western Cape province of South Africa, as well as in tourist expenditure and hotel occupancy rates . ...
Article
The lack of high-resolution tourist volume data for specific types of tourism activities poses a substantial obstacle to quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change. Here, a new method of generating daily tourist volume for cherry blossom viewing tourism from user-generated content (UGC) was proposed, based on which the daily tourist volume for cherry blossom viewing in 220 cities across China from 2010 to 2019 was generated and verified. Then, generalized additive model (GAM) and segmented regression were introduced to reveal the non-linear and threshold relationships between daily tourist volume and temperature. Finally, the trends in the daily tourist volume from 2020 to 2050 were simulated under two future climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP). The proposed method can provide methodological support for analyzing other specific types of tourism activities by generating alternative data on tourist volume. ARTICLE HISTORY
... It may influence people's work-related and leisure-time physical activity through rising temperatures, extreme weather conditions, and resulting changes in human activities (e.g., urbanization, agricultural and industrial production) [3]. In addition, climate change can affect the human activities in occupational outdoor settings [4]- [6] and tourists attraction [7]. According to the surveys, the first or second element that tourists consider when choosing a tourism destination is the climate information [8], [9]. ...
Article
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Regarding climatic diversity in Iran and the dependence of many outdoor activities (occupational, recreational, tourism attraction, etc.) on climatic conditions, this study conducted aiming to evaluate thermal comfort fluctuations in Iran. Thermal comfort fluctuations in different climates of Iran were investigated between 1985 and 2014 using recorded meteorological data in 40 synoptic stations. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope were used to analyse the changing trends of the Humidex and to determine the actual slope of a trend over time, respectively. In overall, the southern areas of Iran have the longest period with unfavourable and extremely unfavourable climatic conditions in this study. Conversely, in the northern half of Iran, especially in North West areas, the appropriate summer season provides the best climatic conditions for outdoor activities.
... The vulnerability will increase further due to climate variability and anthropogenic pollution. Common natural phenomena related to climate change that affect groundwater (Kayanne et al., 2016;Leal Filho et al., 2020;Robinson, 2020) are rising mean sea levels, changes in temperature and rainfall intensity, and extreme weather conditions (Hubbard et al., 2014;Pala, 2014;Kayanne et al., 2016;Leal Filho et al., 2020;Pathak et al., 2020). Anthropogenic causes of groundwater contamination can be classified as follows: lack of wastewater treatment and solid waste management systems Rustam, 2019;Susilawaty et al., 2016;Zhai et al., 2015), excessive groundwater exploitation Mabrouk et al., 2018Mabrouk et al., , 2019Tiwari et al., 2019), water demand and supply imbalances (Shao et al., 2017), nonpoint source contamination (Kelly et al., 2019;Mullins et al., 2020), and many other contaminant sources (Adimalla et al., 2021). ...
Article
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Freshwater on small islands is generally limited and relies on rainwater and groundwater. This study aimed to assess changes in shallow groundwater quality on Pari Island, Indonesia. Pari Island is a small island with an area of 41.32 ha and belongs to a monsoon climate. Also, being a residential island, it attracts many tourists. The approach was to assess the shallow groundwater quality of ten wells during the dry and wet seasons. Changes in water quality were evaluated using traditional hydrochemical analysis methods (Schoeller, Piper, and Gibbs diagrams) and ion ratios. Shallow groundwater quality in the study area showed different responses depending on the season. Therefore, each well responded differently to changes represented by changes in water quality. The change is controlled by various factors: evaporation (or water balance), geology, aquifer characteristics, tides, wind direction, and wave height. These factors trigger the fluctuation of groundwater and seawater interface, affecting the amount of rainwater and seawater transported to the freshwater aquifer layer. This water volume transported affects the process of rock weathering, dissolution, and dilution of contaminants in shallow groundwater.
... From an academic point of view, this study can provide support to further reinforce the linkage between business actions and SDG indicators that has already been started by international institutions. For island destinations, the definition of indicators to measure sustainability is especially important because of the scarcity of studies on the complex impact of their tourism sectors [83]. The current study can be connected to the methodologies already developed by Nesticó and Maselli [84] for the economic aspect, Graci and Van Vliet [85] for the perspective of stakeholders, and the sustainable visitation index (SVI) developed by Northcote [86] for the sustainability aspect. ...
Article
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It is essential to find a balance between tourism development and sustainable consumption of water resources. To achieve this goal, a Sustainable Balanced Scorecard connected to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) is proposed for optimal water resource management in the hotel sector. The Scorecard is based on four perspectives: customer, internal processes, learning and improvement, and financial. The key variables were agreed on with stakeholders in the sector, and the Sustainable Balanced Scorecard was tested empirically on a sample of 70 hotels in island tourism destinations in the Macaronesia region. The results revealed that though more and more hotels have tried to implement strategies to save water, they were still a long way from reaching the international standard of 140 L per guest night. In addition, there were significant differences concerning water consumption according to hotel category. The Sustainable Balanced Scorecard in this paper adds to the existing works about materiality in sustainability. It can also support business decision making about the SDGs and help potential investors.
... This has been projected to increase under climate change [51]. In the Bahamas, a recent assessment of the vulnerability of the coastal tourism infrastructure to beach erosion/flooding has shown that, as 28% and 60% of the total hotels/resorts are situated within 50 m and 100 m from the current coastline respectively, there is a high risk of significant damages/losses under climate change; Although a RSLR of 1 m threatens a small number of properties by itself, when combined has been projected to impact 34%, 69%, and 83% of the touristic infrastructure/assets (hotels and resorts) respectively [52]. Similarly, changes in the hydro-meteorological forcing have been projected to induce greater beach erosion and flooding along previously (more) stable shorelines at many Pacific islands, where local communities conceive beach erosion as the critical coastal hazard [53,54]. ...
Article
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The objective of this short contribution is to discuss a most significant emerging challenge for the 3S tourism: The reduction of the beach carrying capacity for recreation due to the erosion brought by climate change. Projections on the potential carrying capacity reductions of two major touristic island 3S destinations in the Mediterranean (Santorini, Greece) and the Caribbean (Saint Lucia) are presented. The results show severe impacts on the carrying capacity of all beaches in these islands. By 2050 and under the moderate RCP 4.5 scenario, up to 50% of the Santorini beaches will permanently retreat by 50% of their current recorded maximum width due to the relative sea level rise, whereas under the 100-year extreme storm conditions at least 67% of all beaches will be completely (at least temporarily) inundated, exposing backshore assets to flooding. Under the same scenario and date, up to 34% of all St Lucian beaches may permanently retreat by more than 50% of their present maximum width, whereas under the extreme (1-100 year) storm event more than 50% of the beaches will suffer total erosion, at least temporarily. It appears that costly adaptation measures will be required to maintain the beach carrying capacity in 3S tourism destinations, particularly beach nourishment schemes. Management of the beach carrying capacity problem requires mainstreaming of the assessment of, and the response to beach erosion within the tourism development and management strategies and plans; both require considerable human, technological and financial resources which should be (at least) assessed as a matter of urgency.
... A recent study show that climate change vulnerability already has a statistically and economically significant negative effect on international tourism revenue in Caribbean countries (Cevik and Ghanzanchyan, 2021). Coastal areas are the most visited tourist destinations as well as the most vulnerable to climate change due to hurricane and inundation risks throughout the region (UNDP, 2010;Scott, Simpson, and Sim, 2012;Pathak and others, 2021). 4 In the long-term, the dual combination of rising sea levels and of coastal erosion is projected to reduce the quantity and quality of available beach space without significant adaptation measures and could therefore diminish the attractiveness of the region as high-end tourism destination. ...
Article
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Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people's health and living standards, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
... Sea level rise and the increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events caused by CC, such as storm surges or coastal flooding, to name a few [67,68], not only affect beaches but also damage infrastructure and facilities-e.g., waterfronts, recreational ports, etc. [69]-with implications for the destination's image [27]. Concerning EU islands, sea level rise may range between 56 and 74 cm, being more prominent on the Atlantic Islands [2,70,71]. ...
Article
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The degradation of terrestrial ecosystems may change the perceived value of destinations for tourists. This article analyses tourists’ travel decisions when the land ecosystems of the destinations they are planning to visit are threatened by climate change impacts. More specifically, it analyses tourists’ willingness to pay for their holidays at island destinations endangered by the increase in forest fires, terrestrial wildlife losses, water shortages, and damages to infrastructure and cultural heritage. With this aim in mind, a discrete choice model was designed and empirically tested with a representation of European travellers, using an alternative specific conditional logistic regression. The results show that the sharp increase in the occurrence of wildfires has had the greatest negative impact on tourists’ willingness to pay for their next holiday at the affected tourist destination, followed by severe losses in terrestrial wildlife and significant damage to cultural heritage. This study highlights the importance of having accurate information on future climate change conditions impacting land attributes at the local level, not only to be more effective in the early prevention of threats to prioritise but also to confront the potential damage to the tourism economy more efficiently.
... As a parallel-but-related focus, climate change has also taken a prominent position in the thinking of tourism researchers [24,90,91]. Regarding tourism sustainability, similarly, foci have generally been on the impact (or redressal) of climate change [92][93][94][95], vulnerability of natural destinations with the biotic environment in the foreground [18,22,23], and vulnerability of local communities in the face of rapid and accelerating environmental change [95][96][97]. ...
Article
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Geodiversity has recently emerged as a key idea for recognizing the value of abiotic nature. The concept has vital implications for informing tourism sustainability research; however, to date, tourism scholarship has not shown adequate engagement with this concept. The issue also assumes further significance in the Anthropocene, where our species has become a geological force. Here, through a review of key works related to geodiversity and Anthropocene, their interface is analyzed, and implications for tourism sustainability are presented. It is argued that, in the Anthropocene, it is no longer enough for tourism sustainability research to remain preoccupied with the human predicament in the Anthropocene or the decline of biotic nature at some prominent tourism destinations, and it is imperative that tourism scholars embrace the concern for abiotic diversity and dynamic earth processes that provide vital resources and services for tourism planetwide.
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Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people’s health and living standards in the coming decades, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
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Climate change and population growth are degrading coastal ecosystems and increasing risks to communities and infrastructure. Reliance on seawalls and other types of hardened shorelines is unsustainable in an era of rising seas, given the costs to build and maintain these structures and their unintended consequences on ecosystems. This is especially true for communities that depend on coastal and marine ecosystems for livelihoods and sustenance. Protecting and restoring coral reefs and coastal forests can be lower cost, sustainable alternatives for shoreline protection. However, decision-makers often lack basic information about where and under what conditions ecosystems reduce risk to coastal hazards and who would benefit. To better understand where to prioritize ecosystems for coastal protection, we assessed risk reduction provided by coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass along the entire coast of The Bahamas, under current and future climate scenarios. Modeled results show that the population most exposed to coastal hazards would more than double with future sea-level rise and more than triple if ecosystems were lost or degraded. We also found that ecosystem-based risk reduction differs across islands due to variation in a suite of ecological, physical, and social variables. On some populated islands, like Grand Bahama and Abaco, habitats provide protection to disproportionately large numbers of people compared to the rest of the country. Risk reduction provided by ecosystems is also evident for several sparsely populated, remote coastal communities, in some cases with large elderly populations. The results from our analyses were critical for engaging policy-makers in discussions about employing natural and nature-based features for coastal resilience. After hurricanes Joaquin and Matthew hit The Bahamas in 2016 and 2017, our assessment of coastal risk reduction and the multiple benefits provided by coastal ecosystems helped pave the way for an innovative loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of The Bahamas to invest in mangrove restoration for coastal resilience. This work serves as an example for other regions and investors aiming to use assessments of ecosystem services to inform financing of natural and nature-based approaches for coastal resilience and climate adaptation.
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Elevation data are critical for assessments of sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding exposure. Previous research has demonstrated that the quality of data used in elevation-based assessments must be well understood and applied to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty of the input elevation data substantially controls the minimum increments of SLR and the minimum planning horizons that can be effectively used in assessments. For regional, continental, or global assessments, several digital elevation models (DEMs) are available for the required topographic information to project potential impacts of increased coastal water levels, whether a simple inundation model is used or a more complex process-based or probabilistic model is employed. When properly characterized, the vertical accuracy of the DEM can be used to report assessment results with the uncertainty stated in terms of a specific confidence level or likelihood category. An accuracy evaluation has been conducted of global DEMs to quantify their inherent vertical uncertainty to demonstrate how accuracy information should be considered when planning and implementing a SLR or coastal flooding assessment. The evaluation approach includes comparison of the DEMs with high-accuracy geodetic control points as the independent reference data over a variety of coastal relief settings. The global DEMs evaluated include SRTM, ASTER GDEM, ALOS World 3D, TanDEM-X, NASADEM, and MERIT. High-resolution, high-accuracy DEM sources, such as airborne lidar and stereo imagery, are also included to give context to the results from the global DEMs. The accuracy characterization results show that current global DEMs are not adequate for high confidence mapping of exposure to fine increments (<1 m) of SLR or with shorter planning horizons (<100 years) and thus they should not be used for such mapping, but they are suitable for general delineation of low elevation coastal zones. In addition to the best practice of rigorous accounting for vertical uncertainty, other recommended procedures are presented for delineation of different types of impact areas (marine and groundwater inundation) and use of regional relative SLR scenarios. The requirement remains for a freely available, high-accuracy, high-resolution global elevation model that supports quantitative SLR and coastal inundation assessments at high confidence levels.
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Ritphring, S.; Somphong, C.; Udo, K., and Kazama, S., 2018. Projections of future beach loss due to sea level rise for sandy beaches along Thailand's coastlines. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 541–545. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Coastline recession caused by sea level rise due to climate change has become one of the most significant issues worldwide. Thailand's coastlines is also likely to face erosion, especially in the low-lying areas, and its future projection due to sea level rise is necessary. This study compiled a database of beach characteristics, including grain size diameter, beach slope and beach width, to assess the projections of future beach loss along Thailand's coastlines against sea level rise scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in 2081–2100, relative to a reference period 1986–2005 by using the Bruun rule. Future national beach loss rates were projected to be 45.8% for RCP2.6, 55.0% for RCP4.5, 56.9% for RCP6.0 and 71.8% for RCP8.5. In addition, the rate against the sea level scenarios projected by each CMIP5 model for RCP4.5 ranges from 49.1% for MPI-ESM-LR to 73.4% for MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Based on the current beach situation, sandy beaches in 8 and 23 out of 51 zones will disappear for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. These findings will help governors and stakeholders develop adaptation strategies against beach loss due to sea level rise.
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Coastal systems are predominantly delicate to three key drivers related to Climate Change (CC): Sea Level Rise (SLR); ocean temperature and; ocean acidity. This study focused on the impacts realized from SLR. These variables are anticipated to increase with significant threats to the populace and structures of social, cultural or economic importance along Coastal Zones (CZ). This study seeks to: characterize the trend of annual rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures from 1986-2016; estimate the land at-risk of being lost to inundation under a 1m SLR scenario and the estimation of the rate of annual land loss for each coastal cell in The Gambia. This study estimates the monetary value of land to be lost and the population at risk of CC impacts in the study area. The results of the study reveal mean annual rainfall increased at a rate of 0.237mm per annum over the CZ. The annual minimum temperature showed a decreasing trend of 0.026 o C while the maximum temperature showed an increasing trend of 0.028 o C annually. By the end of this century, under a 1m SLR scenario, the total land to be lost due to inundation is ~12.46 km 2 (1,246 ha) with a corresponding economic loss of ~US $788 Million (GMD37 Billion) over the CZ. This land loss is predicted to occur at an approximate rate of 6m annually along the CZ of The Gambia. Over 15,560 people per km 2 of land are estimated to be at risk of coastal flooding events in the study area.
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We conduct a risk assesment of losses to coastal properties due to tropical storms in The Bahamas. To this end we use the physical characteristics of a set of synthetically generated storms to estimate local wind and storm surge exposure and couple with these damage functions. Employing these to a unique set of properties on the island of Great Exuma we then calculate out likely losses, in terms of loss of real estate value as well as potential income, due to the storms. Our analysis suggests that while annual expected losses are small, this disguises low probability storms that could cause considerable damage. Moreover, we find that most of the losses are due to storm surge rather than strong winds. This may be particularly important for low-lying islands like The Bahamas facing future challenges of sea-level rise.
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A first assessment of the TanDEM-X DEMs over Brazilian territory is presented through a comparison with SRTM, ASTER GDEM and ALOS AW3D30 DEMs in seven study areas with distinct geomorphological contexts, vegetation coverage and land use. Visual analysis and elevation histograms point to a finer effective spatial resolution of TanDEM-X compared to SRTM and ASTER GDEM. In areas of open vegetation, TanDEM-X lower elevations indicate a better penetration of the radar signal. DEMs of differences (DoDs) allowed the identification of issues inherent to the production methods of the analyzed DEMs, such as mast oscillations in SRTM data and mismatch between adjacent scenes in ASTER GDEM and ALOS AW3D30. Due its simplicity, it is strongly recommended to produce a DoD with SRTM before using ASTER GDEM or ALOS AW3D30 in any analysis, to evaluate if the area of interest is affected by these problems. The DoDs also highlighted changes in land use in the time span between the acquisition of SRTM (2000) and TanDEM-X (2013) data, whether by natural causes or by human interference in the environment.
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The interaction between climate change and tourism has been one of the most critical and dynamic research areas in the field of sustainable tourism in recent years. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 976 academic publications between 1990 and 2015 related to climate change and tourism is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and visualizing the evolution of the collaboration network, the co-citation network, and emerging trends. The results show that the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary research subject. The most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in Australia, USA, Canada, New Zealand, and European countries. In this paper, we identify the most pressing topics of climate change and tourism research, as represented in the existing literature, which include the consequences of climate change for tourism, necessary adaptations, the vulnerability of the tourism industry, tourist behaviour and demand in response to climate change, and emission reductions in the tourism sector. The paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and tourism research to better understand global trends and directions in this field that have emerged over the past 25 years.
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The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes.
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Sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge have significant impacts on tourism properties and activities in the low-lying coastal region. Coastal tourism in Zhejiang Province, China, is physically and socioeconomically susceptible to the flood risk posed by accelerated SLR and intensified storm surge. In this paper, within a scenario design of SLR and storm surge, a GIS-based dataset of major coastal tourist attractions in coastal Zhejiang is created to assess their potential flood risk by using a simple inundation model and a risk matrix. It is estimated that only two resorts would be directly flooded by a SLR of 1–2 m, but extensive inundation of coastal tourism communities may occur during low-frequency surges, especially after adding predicted 1-m SLR. The risk assessment further shows that a majority of the exposed sites is subject to moderate and low risk at current state but would be at higher (moderate and high)-risk categories in the future. In the long term, a combination of adaption measures is presented for policy-makers and other stakeholders for sustainable flood risk management in coastal tourism destinations.
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The ALOS World 3D – 30 m (AW3D30), ASTER Global DEM Version 2 (GDEM2), and SRTM-30 m are Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that have been made available to the general public free of charge. An important feature of these DEMs is their unprecedented horizontal resolution of 30-m and almost global coverage. The very recent release of these DEMs, particularly AW3D30 and SRTM- 30 m, calls for opportunities for the conduct of localized assessment of the DEM’s quality and accuracy to verify their suitability for a wide range of applications in hydrology, geomorphology, archaelogy, and many others. In this study, we conducted a vertical accuracy assessment of these DEMs by comparing the elevation of 274 control points scattered over various sites in northeastern Mindanao, Philippines. The elevations of these control points (referred to the Mean Sea Level, MSL) were obtained through 3rd order differential levelling using a high precision digital level, and their horizontal positions measured using a global positioning system (GPS) receiver. These control points are representative of five (5) land-cover classes namely brushland (45 points), built-up (32), cultivated areas (97), dense vegetation (74), and grassland (26). Results showed that AW3D30 has the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.68 m, followed by SRTM-30 m (RMSE = 8.28 m), and ASTER GDEM2 (RMSE = 11.98 m). While all the three DEMs overestimated the true ground elevations, the mean and standard deviations of the differences in elevations were found to be lower in AW3D30 compared to SRTM-30 m and ASTER GDEM2. The superiority of AW3D30 over the other two DEMS was also found to be consistent even under different landcover types, with AW3D30's RMSEs ranging from 4.29 m (built-up) to 6.75 m (dense vegetation). For SRTM-30 m, the RMSE ranges from 5.91 m (built-up) to 10.42 m (brushland); for ASTER GDEM2, the RMSE ranges from 9.27 m (brushland) to 14.88 m (dense vegetation). The results of the vertical accuracy assessment suggest that the AW3D30 is more accurate than SRTM-30 m and ASTER GDEM2, at least for the areas considered in this study. On the other hand, the tendencies of the three DEMs to overestimate true ground elevation can be considered an important finding that users of the DEMs in the Philippines should be aware of, and must be considered into decisions regarding use of these data products in various applications.
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013�2014 was the most comprehensive analysis of anthropogenic climate change, its impacts, and potential responses. It concluded that climate change is “unequivocal” and human activities are the dominant cause. Avoidance of “dangerous” climate change will require sustained substantial reductions of emissions by mid-century and that net emissions decrease to zero before 2100. This paper describes, reviews and explains the place of tourism in AR5 and AR5’s relevance for tourism’s future, including impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilities, and mitigation. Tourism’s position in AR5 has strengthened, particularly with respect to the recognition of transboundary impacts, the sector’s contribution to climate change and its mitigation requirements. Major regional knowledge gaps persist. A lack of understanding of the integrated impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies potentially hinders the development of resilient tourism operations and destinations. Uncertainties regarding tourist response to climate change impacts and mitigation policy impede predictions of tourism demand. The implications of different decarbonization pathways for the future of international tourism represent a key knowledge gap. The limited response of key tourism organizations to AR5 contributes to the risks climate change poses to the sector.
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Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion.
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Reef corals are highly sensitive to heat, yet populations resistant to climate change have recently been identified. To determine the mechanisms of temperature tolerance, we reciprocally transplanted corals between reef sites experiencing distinct temperature regimes and tested subsequent physiological and gene expression profiles. Local acclimatization and fixed effects, such as adaptation, contributed about equally to heat tolerance and are reflected in patterns of gene expression. In less than 2 years, acclimatization achieves the same heat tolerance that we would expect from strong natural selection over many generations for these long-lived organisms. Our results show both short-term acclimatory and longer-term adaptive acquisition of climate resistance. Adding these adaptive abilities to ecosystem models is likely to slow predictions of demise for coral reef ecosystems.
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We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.
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The academic debate on tourism and climate change has expanded considerably in the last few years. This paper's narrative and systematic review of 459 English-language academic publications (1986 to 2012) synthesises the research on tourism and climate change, identifies key trends and social networks, and provides a critique for further discussion in this evolving knowledge domain. The analysis shows that the size of the field has grown, that research includes multiple dimensions (e.g., climate impacts, adaptation, mitigation, and policy), and that studies have become more integrative and critical. The co-authorship network is characterised by a core, which is disconnected from a more fragmented periphery, whereby the “centre of gravity” comprises a relatively small number of researchers who tend to co-author a large number of publications. The paper concludes that, overall, research on tourism and climate change has developed into a knowledge domain in its own right.
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Climate models proliferated to account for the changes in tropical cyclone characteristics. Two such models are presented. One is a limited-area climate model with a horizontal resolution of 30 km and could give a good simulation of the climatology of tropical cyclone formation using only the observed tropical cyclone threshold criterion, namely 10-m wind speeds greater than 17 m s-1. The other model which is undergoing development incorporates an improved climate model simulation of ENSO coupled to a "strecthed" variable-resolution grid. The model will be used to generate a tropical cyclone climatology with the hope of answering questions about the links between climate change, climate variability, and tropical cyclones.
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Sea level rise (SLR) is considered a growing, certain and prominent consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the high value of tourism properties and economic activity in the coastal zone, the tourism sector is largely absent from the SLR literature. This study created a geo-referenced database of 906 major coastal resort properties in 19 Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries to assess their potential risk to a scenario of one-metre SLR. An estimated 266 (29%) resort properties would be partially or fully inundated by one-metre SLR; between 440 (49%) and 546 (60%) of resort properties would be at risk of beach erosion damage associated with the same SLR scenario. In addition, many resorts would experience significant losses of beach area prior to resort property loss. The vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of individual coastal tourism properties and destination communities is argued to differ substantially. Losses of over 50% of coastal properties are likely in five countries, three of which are highly dependent on tourism. These differentials would transform the competitive position and sustainability of coastal tourism destinations in the region, with important implications for property values, potential tourism revenues, insurance costs, destination marketing, as well as local and national economies.
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SUMMARY Climate change may affect important environmental components of holiday destinations, which might have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. This study documents the importance of environmental attributes in determining the choice and holiday enjoyment of tourists visiting Bonaire and Barbados, twoCaribbeanislandswithmarkedlydifferenttourism marketsandinfrastructure.Threehundredandsixteen and 338 participants from Bonaire and Barbados, respectively, completed standardized questionnaires. Warm temperatures, clear waters and low health risks were the most important environmental features de- termining holiday destination choice. However, tour- ists in Bonaire thereafter prioritized marine wildlife attributes (i.e. coral and fish diversity and abundance) over other environmental features, whereas tourists in Barbados exhibited stronger preferences for terrestrial features, particularly beach characteristics. The willingness of tourists to revisit these islands was strongly linked to the state of the preferred environ- mental attributes. More than 80% of tourists in Bonaire and Barbados would be unwilling to return for the same holiday price in the event, respectively,
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Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones.
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Climatic variability and a substantial fraction of the most recent temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere can be accounted for by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The most pronounced anomalies have occurred since the winter of 1989, with significant implications on weather conditions in areas within the index's geographical scope. Because climate is one of the most important factors in explaining world movements by humans, in this paper, variability patterns between quarterly Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), compiled by the European Airline Association, and the NAO index are investigated as a function of different time lags and diverse economic indicators, with the aim of evaluating the impact of NAO variability and trends that can be associated with the change in RPK since the nineties. Using a traditional international air travel demand model, it has been found that the dissociation of the NAO index into positive and negative fluctuations can be related to changes in different geographical RPK time series, once seasonal effects are removed. The results are consistent with the view that meteorological and climate conditions can act as both a pull and push factor.
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Stormy Weather One of the most active questions about the effects of global warming is whether, and how, it might affect the frequency and the strength of hurricanes. Some studies have suggested that warming will bring fewer, and less energetic, hurricanes, while others have claimed that we can expect more intense storms. Bender et al. (p. 454 ; see the news story by Kerr ) explore the influence of global warming on hurricane dynamics over the Atlantic Ocean with a state-of-the-art hurricane prediction model. The model predicts that the annual total number of hurricanes in the 21st century will be less than now, but also that the number of the most intense storms per year will increase. The largest increase of the most intense hurricane frequency is predicted in the western Atlantic, which suggests that Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Southeast coast of the United States could be at greater risk.
Article
Rising sea levels are expected to cause widespread coastal recession over the course of the next century. In this work, new insight into the response of sandy beaches to sea level rise is obtained through a series of comprehensive experiments using monochromatic and random waves in medium scale laboratory wave flumes. Beach profile development from initially planar profiles, and a 2/3 power law profile, exposed to wave conditions that formed barred or bermed profiles and subsequent profile evolution following rises in water level and the same wave conditions are presented. Experiments assess profile response to a step-change in water level as well as the influence of sediment deposition above the still water level (e.g. overwash). A continuity based profile translation model (PTM) is applied to both idealised and measured shoreface profiles, and is used to predict overwash and deposition volumes above the shoreline. Quantitative agreement with the Bruun Rule (and variants of it) is found for measured shoreline recession for both barred and bermed beach profiles. There is some variability between the profiles at equilibrium at the two different water levels. Under these idealised conditions, deviations between the original Bruun Rule, the modification by Rosati et al. (2013) and the PTM model predictions are of the order of 15% and all these model predictions are within ±30% of the observed shoreline recession. Measurements of the recession of individual contour responses, such as the shoreline, may be subject to local profile variability; therefore, a measure of the mean recession of the profile is also obtained by averaging the recession of discrete contours throughout the active profile. The mean recession only requires conservation of volume, not conservation of profile shape, to be consistent with the Bruun Rule concept, and is found to be in better agreement with all three model predictions than the recession measured at the shoreline.
Article
In many small island developing states (SIDS), tourism is a principal driver of the economy and of infrastructure development. The SIDS’ tourism sector is, however, threatened by climate change impacts, which will likely incur high costs for climate change adaptation (CCA). Discussions are starting about who should pay for the costs of adapting to climate change, especially the balance amongst sectors such as between governments and the tourism industry. Through the perceptions of selected industry stakeholders, this study explores the potential of the tourism industry in SIDS in financing its own CCA. Fiscal and political mechanisms were examined, such as adaptation taxes and levies, adaptation funds, building regulations, and risk transference. The study’s exploratory method combines nine in-depth key stakeholder interviews from various SIDS and an extensive literature review to develop a schematic of suggested mechanisms. The results reveal a high overall potential for the tourism industry funding its CCA, but with significant challenges in realizing this potential. Consumer expectations and demands, governmental hesitation in creating perceived investment barriers, and assumptions about cost effectiveness could undermine steps moving forward. Varying incentive structures, the sector’s price sensitivity, and the differing abilities of tourism industry stakeholders to adapt are factors suggesting that government frameworks are needed to ensure effective and substantive action.
Article
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.
Chapter
Globally, the human population is fast approaching 10 billion people, with nearly a third located within 100 km of the sea. As the list of environmental ills facing the ocean and coasts grows longer, it becomes increasingly important to understand the cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors and the most promising interventions to bolster ecosystems. In this chapter we share our experience using transdisciplinary approaches and ecosystem services to inform two government-led spatial planning processes in the Caribbean: Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Belize and Sustainable Development Planning in The Bahamas. We describe the science–policy process in these two countries in light of three important components of transdisciplinarity: (1) solutions-oriented research, (2) coproduction of knowledge, and (3) multiple disciplines. By accounting for the ways in which communities depend on ecosystems, as well as affect them, we explore how the governments of Belize and The Bahamas aim to reach a broader set of actors and to direct investments, planning, and decision making to promote conservation and foster human well-being at the same time.
Article
The archipelago of the Bahamas contains the largest tropical shallow water area in the Western Atlantic. Located on the northern and eastern margins of two large submerged banks and a number of smaller more isolated banks, the Bahama Islands, of which there are over 700, are low-lying and composed of limestone. A sub-tropical climate and a geographic position between two major warm ocean currents affect the region with seasonal variability, which influences the biological communities inhabiting the ocean and coastal areas.
Article
It is established fact that sea level is rising slowly and irregularly; also, it seems to be true that erosion on most seashores built up of alluvial materials greatly exceeds accretion; relationship between rise of sea level and erosion.
Article
Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.
Article
In recent years, analysts have focussed on building a range of strategic responses to enhance the ability of communities and businesses to manage and recover from natural disasters. The experience from each new crisis adds further to the process of hazard management. The results in tourism research have expanded the community's collective capacity to respond to such circumstances, but little consideration has been given to how small firms, which are the mainstay of the industry, actually deal with the impacts of a regional catastrophe.The 2003 bushfires in northeast Victoria (Australia) devastated over 1.1 million hectares, destroying the livelihood of some operators and leaving more than one thousand small tourism firms without a revenue base. This paper examines how they prepared for, and recovered from, the event. Perhaps not surprisingly, it exposes their vulnerability and lack of preparedness for dealing with a hazard of this magnitude. On the other hand, it demonstrates the resilience of real-world operators and their reliance on accumulated experience to manage their own recovery. There are lessons here that may well apply in similar circumstances. For example, the paper notes the inadequacy of insurance as a risk management strategy, but emphasizes the value of collective approaches to marketing to rebuild the confidence of future visitors.
Article
In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the “Bruun Rule”. This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid.
Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services in Bahamian Marine Protected Areas. Prepared for BREEF by the Natural Capital Project
  • K Arkema
  • D Fisher
  • K Wyatt
Arkema, K., Fisher, D., Wyatt, K., 2017. Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services in Bahamian Marine Protected Areas. Prepared for BREEF by the Natural Capital Project. Stanford University.
Reefs at Risk Revisited. World Resources Institute. Caribbean Tourism Organization, 2019. Caribbean tourism performance 2019 preliminary arrivals data
  • L Burke
  • K Reytar
  • M Spalding
  • A Perry
Burke, L., Reytar, K., Spalding, M., Perry, A., 2011. Reefs at Risk Revisited. World Resources Institute. Caribbean Tourism Organization, 2019. Caribbean tourism performance 2019 preliminary arrivals data. Retrieved. http://www.caribbeanhotelandtourism.com/wpcontent/uploads/2019/04/Caribbean-Tourism-Performance-2018-Preliminary-Arrivals-Data-CTO.pdf. (Accessed 5 December 2019).
The world factbook: Bahamas, the
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 2018. The world factbook: Bahamas, the. Retrieved May 21, 2020, from. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/bf.html.
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2011. An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas
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