ArticleLiterature Review

Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition away from Coal in China

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Abstract

As the world's largest coal producer and consumer, China's transition from coal to cleaner energy sources is critical for achieving global decarbonization. Increasing regulations on air pollution and carbon emissions and decreasing costs of renewables drive China's transition away from coal; however, this transition also has implications for employment and social justice. Here, we assess China's current coal-transition policies, their barriers, and the potential for an accelerated transition, as well as the associated environmental, human health, and employment and social justice issues that may arise from the transition. We estimate that the most aggressive coal-transition pathway could reduce annual premature death related to coal combustion by 224,000 and reduce annual water consumption by 4.3 billion m3 in 2050 compared with business-as-usual. We highlight knowledge gaps and conclude with policy recommendations for an integrated approach to facilitate a rapid and just transition away from coal in China.

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... Modeling studies and technical reviews illustrate techno-economically feasible pathways to phase out coal and increase renewable energy while growing employment Zhang et al., 2020. On the other hand, obstacles to effective policy adoption have been documented in terms of incumbent actors and institutions (He et al., 2020;Heerma van Voss & Rafaty, 2022), employment disruption and social impacts, and stranded assets and lost fiscal revenues (Clark & Zhang, 2022;He et al., 2020;Heerma van Voss & Rafaty, 2022). Many of these elements are shared in international coal transition studies, which highlight the outsized salience of labor and community impacts in political decision-making, reflecting the concentration of transition costs (Diluiso et al., 2021;Muttitt et al., 2023). ...
... Modeling studies and technical reviews illustrate techno-economically feasible pathways to phase out coal and increase renewable energy while growing employment Zhang et al., 2020. On the other hand, obstacles to effective policy adoption have been documented in terms of incumbent actors and institutions (He et al., 2020;Heerma van Voss & Rafaty, 2022), employment disruption and social impacts, and stranded assets and lost fiscal revenues (Clark & Zhang, 2022;He et al., 2020;Heerma van Voss & Rafaty, 2022). Many of these elements are shared in international coal transition studies, which highlight the outsized salience of labor and community impacts in political decision-making, reflecting the concentration of transition costs (Diluiso et al., 2021;Muttitt et al., 2023). ...
... Many of these elements are shared in international coal transition studies, which highlight the outsized salience of labor and community impacts in political decision-making, reflecting the concentration of transition costs (Diluiso et al., 2021;Muttitt et al., 2023). The one exception appears to be the emerging topic of "just transitions," where industrialized and democratic examples have mostly informed this discussion, and the China context is only beginning to be defined (Gong & Lewis, 2024;He et al., 2020;Jakob et al., 2020;Olson et al., 2021;Wang & Lo, 2021). ...
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Pressures to address climate change are eroding the privileged role coal has held in China throughout its modernization. Phasing down coal requires a suite of supply‐ and demand‐side tools to both reduce production (and therefore, maintain sufficiently high prices) and shift to coal alternatives across diverse consumption sectors. This review outlines contours of the coming coal transition by documenting coal's rise in modern China, its status in key debates of today's energy system, and the range of modeling scenarios of coal's future to mid‐century. In addition, through an analysis of current efforts and impacts in four transition policy areas—supply‐side, demand‐side, employment and social impacts, and stranded assets and fiscal revenues—it identifies gaps and future recommendations. Emerging scholarship on enhancing political feasibility and fostering a “just transition” needs to move beyond global cases and address highly localized and temporally bound impacts. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Future of Global Energy Policy and Governance > National Climate Change Policy
... Prior research has underscored the significant social justice issues that arise from coal phaseout [3][4][5] . These issues encompass complex challenges, including the livelihoods of workers in the industry 6,7 , the management of stranded assets 8,9 , and the transformation of economic structures 10 . These challenges are particularly pronounced in coal-dependent developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. ...
... Similar constraints and adverse impacts on water resources are observed in other coal-producing countries, including the United States, where states like Wyoming face water scarcity issues. Although the closure of coal mines has been acknowledged for its impacts on various aspects, including the reduction of air pollution 19,20 , biodiversity 21 , local employment 6 , and livelihoods 7 , the consideration of water resources has often been overlooked. This paper examines the effect of coal mine closure in China on water availability, which is a crucial aspect of the environmental and ecological systems on Earth. ...
... The total increase in water availability resulting from these mine closures after 6 years amounts to 24.3 billion m3. This number is considerably higher than the predicted water consumption reduction from China's coal transition in 2050 for two reasons 6 . Firstly, the impact of coal mine closure on terrestrial water storage extends beyond reducing water consumption, encompassing multiple channels. ...
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The transition away from coal involves the widespread closure of coal mines. While the potential adverse consequences of these closures on industry and the local economy have received considerable attention, empirical evidence on the benefits of water resources remains limited. Here, we quantify the effect of coal mine closure on terrestrial water storage (TWS) in China using satellite data and a staggered difference-in-differences approach. Our findings indicate a rapid restoration in TWS following closure, with coal mine closures increasing TWS by an average of 18.8 ± 8.9 mm per year. This increase in TWS is primarily attributable to augmented groundwater storage and reduced industrial water usage. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that these TWS gains exceed the indirect impacts of climate change mitigation efforts on water resources, potentially complementing such strategies in water-stressed regions. Overall, our study underscores the positive environmental impact of coal mine closures on water availability in China, potentially facilitating the transition away from coal production and enhancing the sustainability of the energy transition.
... For example, the expenses of decreasing GHG emissions could be offset by the global health synergies benefits, with the health benefits in India and China approximated to be three to nine times greater than the expenditure of emissions cuts [21]. Hence, accounting for reduced carbon emissions, diminished air pollution, and health cobenefits during the coal phase out process was crucial, as it relates directly to the exit costs and the confidence in its execution [22,23]. ...
... It is well known that most countries face resistance to phasing out coal [39,40], and our research shows that phasing out coal has significant carbon reduction benefits, particularly in the coal mining phase. Further and stronger coal phase out policies could be a key contributor to China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality [14,23,41]. ...
... More crucially, the costs associated with this policy are fully offset by the accompanying environmental and health co-benefits. However, during the coal phase out, the employment concerns of workers previously engaged in the coal industry should be taken into account to ensure a just and swift energy transition [23]. For this reason, the near-term sacrifices made by coal workers and impacted communities in the transition, warrant consideration beyond conventional welfare systems or social assistance. ...
Article
China is the world's largest carbon emitter and coal de-capacity is a policy with immediate and substantial CO2 reduction effects. However, the carbon emission reduction and health co-benefits arising from the coal de-capacity are often ignored. Here, we assessed the carbon emission reductions and quantified the health co-benefits from coal de-capacity based on an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the mine closures and phase out during 2016-2022. Our findings show that China had closed/phased out a total of 4027 mines with a total de-capacity of 8.75 × 10 8 t, spatially concentrated in Southwest and North China from 2016 to 2022. The coal life cycle emitted 1859 million t of carbon during the coal de-capacity. Importantly, 11,775 premature deaths were avoided during 2016-2022 due to reduced PM2.5 exposure as a result of coal mining. This study highlights the significant effects of coal de-capacity on carbon reduction and health co-benefits in China and provides scientific evidence and data to support the achievement of the sustainable development goals and the 'dual carbon goals'.
... To address global climate change, phasing out coal in the global energy system is a crucial strategy (Cui et al., 2021). Despite China's rapid growth in renewable energy, coal remains widely used for electricity generation (He et al., 2020), making China's transition to cleaner energy sources critical for achieving global decarbonization. As the world's largest coal producer and consumer, China has set a carbon neutrality target before 2060, but faces significant challenges in phasing out coal to achieve net-zero emissions (Peng et al., 2018). ...
... While some provinces heavily rely on coal for their economic growth but consume very little of it, others have minimal production but high coal consumption (Huang et al., 2023;Kaijie and Jin, 2023;Su et al., 2023;Wang et al., 2023). In some provinces, coal serves as the primary export commodity, while others depend on imported coal to meet their developmental needs (He et al., 2020) (Fig. 1). Thus, it is crucial to consider these regional differences and the socio-economic impacts of coal reliance when designing strategies for a just energy transition in China. ...
... Province-level scenarios for 2030 have been designed to represent various electricity demand and low-carbon infrastructure development pathways, with CO2 emissions decline largely associated with changes in industrial structure and declining coal usage for energy (Liu et al., 2016). He et al. (2020) assesses China's current coal-transition policies, barriers, and potential for an accelerated transition, including associated environmental, human health, employment, and social justice issues. An integrated approach has been proposed to accelerate China's transition towards a lower-carbon energy system, with China's success having an outsized influence on global climate change mitigation and sustainable energy (Cui et al., 2019). ...
Article
This paper examines the coal reliance of all 31 provinces in China and assesses the potential for a just energy transition towards cleaner energy sources. The authors calculate a coal reliance index (CRI) for each province based on China statistical data. The CRI takes into account factors such as coal production, consumption, and import/export, as well as GDP, population, and gender differences in mining employment. The authors highlight the importance of considering the varying degrees of coal reliance among provinces in developing effective policies for a just energy transition. The findings suggest the provincial CRI has generally been decreasing across most provinces over the past 16 years. When looking at regional CRI rankings, the northwest region has the highest average CRI compared to other regions, while the northeast region has the lowest CRI, followed by the north, east, south central, and southwest regions. The gender CRI indicates that women in China are not benefiting as much as men from economic growth and development. The paper provides insights for policy-makers seeking to achieve a more sustainable and just energy system in China.
... 1 In its China Climate and Development report, the World Bank (2022a) expressed support for a "just transition" in China through policy, financial support packages and placebased implementation. However, questions have been raised about the practicability of a just transition in China given China's hierarchical and highly devolved, state-led political and economic system that is heavily reliant on coal (He et al. 2020;Hu 2020;Huang and Liu 2021;Wang and Lo 2022). While China's regional and local governments have targets for coal phase-out, until recently, they were incentivized to develop the coal sector, creating a deep dependency throughout the country. ...
... This is particularly important for China where sensitivity to just and fair social and cultural outcomes of transitions are being over-shadowed by a near-exclusive focus on jobs: the loss of jobs in coal regions and the promise of "green jobs" from the rapidly growing renewable energy sector. Studies that consider wider social impacts on standards of living, patterns of inequity, access to affordable and clean energy, environmental restoration, and the role of small to medium enterprises in enabling diversified economies are sparse (He et al. 2020;PRI 2022). ...
... Co-benefits can occur when energy transition policy goals align with national priorities (He et al. 2020;Jennings et al. 2020; Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations 2021; International Climate Initiative 2019). The German Coal Commission is a case in point. ...
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China produces nearly half of the world’s coal and more than half of the global coal-fired electricity. Its CO2 emissions are higher than the combined volumes of the next three world regions—the US, Europe, and India. China has announced a net-zero commitment by 2060. This timeline creates enormous pressure to maintain energy security while phasing down coal use. Despite the localized nature of China’s coal production with nearly 80% of its thermal coal industry concentrated in four provinces, the dependencies are complex and extensive. Large-scale changes to energy systems will result in a range of social, cultural, and economic disruptions across China’s urban, rural, and remote regions. This paper examines experiences with coal transitions in other jurisdictions and considers implications for China. We examine the drivers, successes, and failures of coal phase-down in Germany, Poland, Australia, the UK, and the US. Despite significant differences in scale and complexity, these experiences offer important insights for China as it works to meet its climate commitments.
... Thus far, they have been unable to decide on an issue to focus on, mostly due to conflicting interests. Curbing emissions to counter pollution and climate change, for instance, would impose financial as well as social costs on China that could significantly hinder economic growth and even cause social unrest, such as the predicted loss of around five million jobs in the Chinese coal sector by 2050 (He et al. 2020). As some scholars argue, maintaining high levels of employment and a successful and stable economy is at the core of the social contract between China's regime and its people. ...
... Employment losses across the value chain could reach upwards of 2.5 million in the baseline scenario between 2021 and 2060 (Clark and Zhang 2022). Another scenario puts the number of jobs lost at five million (He et al. 2020). More ambitious phase-out pathways would only hasten the reduction of coal employment, tax income and related economic growth, but the authors highlight that the preconditions for the sector's demise seem to be quite visible already. ...
... More ambitious phase-out pathways would only hasten the reduction of coal employment, tax income and related economic growth, but the authors highlight that the preconditions for the sector's demise seem to be quite visible already. What is more, some studies suggest that a transition toward RE-based power generation is likely to have a net-positive effect in terms of GDP growth and employment (see He et al. 2020). New research by Wang et al. (2022) shows that wind and solar installed capacity potential in China is nine times the capacity required under the carbon neutral by 2060 scenario. ...
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Juxtaposing China's current situation and policies toward coal and renew-ables at home and abroad, we argue that China remains in a paradoxical state of carbon lock-in. We analyze the techno-economic, institutional and political factors that contribute to China's coal-related policies following a novel approach that blends different theories and frameworks to establish an interdisciplinary dialogue between various strands of research that were hitherto unconnected. This is accomplished by applying a political economy framework through the lens of techno-institutional carbon lock-in theory in three case studies encompassing China itself, as well as China's climate and energy policy abroad in Pakistan and Mozambique. The article draws four major conclusions about China's energy paradox: 1) An imperative for economic growth lies at the heart of the Chinese governance system's incentive structure, which has resulted in a coal-based energy and industrial policy. 2) China's government should use the experimental, decentralized nature of its regionally-decentralized regime and energy sector to their advantage by promoting disruption rather than incumbency. 3) To address the structural and institutional deficiencies that maintain or even strengthen carbon lock-in, energy governance should be shaped around the primary challenge of strengthening renewable energy advocates throughout all levels of government. 4) The discussion of coal financing abroad must now go beyond the discontinuation of new projects; the building of alternative cleaner projects should be considered and the ones in progress should be halted.
... Gt CO2 of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022 [2] . China's strong dependence on coal presents a significant challenge to global decarbonization efforts, highlighting the importance of China's coal transition in global endeavors to address climate change [3] . In order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal by 2060, China must reduce coal demand to almost negligible levels (i.e., 0) by 2050 [4] , which, in turn, necessitates a proactive and well-planned approach to the coal closure [5,6] . ...
... Given the vast size and regional diversity of China, each province faces a different situation during coal closure. The impacts of coal phase-out can vary greatly, from coal-rich provinces (e.g., Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang) that have built revenue systems on coal resources [3] , to coal-reliant provinces (e.g., Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong) that have developed energy-intensive consuming industries (e.g., steel, cement, chemicals, and textiles) [21] , and coal-importing provinces (e.g., Chongqing) that face a shortage of renewable energy. Therefore, it is necessary to make context-based policy adjustments in these regions to mitigate transitional risks and potential socio-economic impacts. ...
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p>China’s efforts and decisions to phase out coal will shape global endeavors in addressing climate change in the upcoming decades. This study investigates the action logic and interactions among different stakeholders, including the central government, local government, coal enterprises, and mine workers, in the case of Chongqing to gain valuable insights into existing institutional and policy challenges. Our results demonstrate that: First, the provincial government is the key to managing and implementing the local coal transitions, its motivation for coal transition, however, may not always align with the nation’s overall priorities. This highlights the need for a top-down coal transition policy to address the mismatched incentives among various participants. Second, Chongqing’s successful experience in maintaining economic development and whole employment demonstrates the possibility of adopting a rapid coal closure in places with similar resource endowments and industrial structures. Chongqing’s collaborative approach to transferring social responsibilities to local governments also serves as a valuable model that may apply to others’ contexts. Lastly, it is crucial to make context-based policy adjustments and establish an integrated and independent governance system when pursuing a rapid, efficient, and safe coal phase-out.</p
... Some scholars conducted more precise research with accurate data support, such as exploring the relationship between coal employment and community economic development at the county level [15] and the possible impact of the closure of a coal power station [16]. In China, most research on coal power phase-down focuses on the analysis of barriers, pathways, and related policy analysis [17][18][19][20]. Studies on the economic and social impacts of coal power phase-down are based on the transition process of other countries and provide an overview of how China may be affected in the future. ...
... Studies on the economic and social impacts of coal power phase-down are based on the transition process of other countries and provide an overview of how China may be affected in the future. He et al. (2020) reviewed the current energy policies and existing obstacles in China and pointed out the possible impacts on environmental health and social employment in the transition process [20]. summarized the employment impact of climate change and countermeasures and analyzed the conceptual connotations and development trend of just transition [21]. ...
Article
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With the rollout of the carbon peak and neutrality targets, conventional coal-fired power plants will gradually be phased down in China’s power system in an orderly manner. The economic and social impact of the energy transition is a vital topic that requires scientific measurements and evaluation. In this paper, we establish a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of provincial coal power phase-down with 11 indicators covering dimensions of economy, society, and industry. An entropy-based Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach is adopted to calculate entropy weight, relative closeness, and other evaluation benchmark data. Then, the influence degree in 30 provinces is ranked based on the assessment. The results show that there is a significant regional imbalance in the process of coal power phase-down, among which Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other coal base provinces are the most vulnerable regions bound by their huge raw coal production and coal industry employment. Although the coal power industry is less affected than the coal industry, it will face pressure from the optimization of coal power units, followed by the dual impact of taxation and employment issues. Finally, the potential impacts of coal power phase-down and policy implications are proposed.
... Furthermore, the skills required for the new energy industry differ from those previously needed in the coal industry. Accordingly, the short time frame for this transition is unlikely to provide these coal workers sufficient time to plan for, re-train for, and transition to new, similarly remunerative careers (He et al., 2020). ...
... The transition of fossil energy enterprises generates many laidoff workers. In the coal industry, for example, the number of people directly employed by Chinese coal enterprises was 5.3 million in 2013, a number that sharply decreased to 2.6 million in 2020 due to the energy transition (He et al., 2020). Therefore, enterprises and the government need to ensure reemployment of these laid-off workers to achieve a JET. ...
Article
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China has declared that it will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, and energy transition will play a primary role in this process. This transition will encourage leapfrog development in efforts to achieve carbon neutrality. However, energy transition is often accompanied by social risks and injustices, which can be effectively addressed only by incorporating a just energy transition (JET) into the policy process. In this paper, three policy dimensions (material compensation, livelihood maintenance, and social development) associated with 13 policies designed to promote a JET in China are categorized. In addition, the satisfaction of vulnerable groups with these policy approaches is evaluated according to the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and via second-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment (FCA). The results of a satisfaction evaluation of 1,329 vulnerable people who have been laid off, forced to immigrate, fallen into energy poverty, had their rights and interests violated, etc., indicate that the overall satisfaction rate with a JET is 0.404 (the total values of “very satisfied” and “satisfied”), i.e., less than half. Accordingly, China still faces clear JET challenges and should rely on the collaborative promotion of four multi-responsible actors: the government, enterprises and trade unions, social organizations, and individuals. Only through this process can social resources be widely absorbed and mobilized to foster cross-boundary discussions and ensure that no vulnerable populations are left behind. This study thus enriches policy research on energy transition, providing an opportunity to expand the academic horizon of JET as a research field. Furthermore, this study may also inspire policymakers to pay more attention to JET, offering references for subsequent policy improvement.
... In analysing the processes of coal de-capacity, most studies have focused on discussing the reasons for overcapacity (Yang et al., 2018(Yang et al., , 2019, policy impact on the economy (Yao et al., 2022;Zhang et al., 2018Zhang et al., , 2021, coal market changes (Wang et al., 2020;Shi et al., 2018), capacity allocation (Wang et al., 2018(Wang et al., , 2019, employment (Michieka et al., 2022;He et al., 2020;Spencer et al., 2018) and social welfare impacts (Yao et al., 2022;Wang et al., 2022b;Zhang et al., 2021). The development of coal industry has led to problems such as resource depletion and environmental deterioration (Luo et al., 2023). ...
... Therefore, controlling methane emissions from coal mining is of great significance in the realization of China's carbon neutrality, and global greenhouse mitigation goals. However, the overall progress of coal phase out has been slow (Wang et al., 2021), and there are still significant barriers in China's industrial sector (He et al., 2020). In the short term, coal will remain a necessity in China, and coal mining activities will in turn lead to significant methane emissions, which will negatively impact the achievement of the 1.5 • C global warming control target. ...
Article
Coal de-capacity policies are often used to promote the integration of coal resources and optimize the production structure in China. This study used a bottom-up approach to evaluate the unintended effect of China's coal de-capacity policies on methane emissions mitigation from 2011 to 2019. Under the effect of such policies, the closed coal capacity was 46% of the total coal capacity in 2011. A total of 9567 coal mines with 1610 Mt of capacity were closed. The capacity of low CH 4-content coal mines accounted for 77% in 2019, and the capacity of high and outburst CH 4-content coal mines decreased by 9% compared to 2011. The adjustment in coal production structure in turn affects coal mine methane emission intensity, hence the national average coal mine emission factor decreased from 9 m 3 /t in 2011 to 8 m 3 /t in 2019. The coal de-capacity policies generated a cumulative 10.70 Tg of methane emissions mitigation from 2011 to 2019, even with rebounded coal production. As the number of coal mine closures continues to increase, the priority phase-out of high and outburst CH 4-content mines will further lead to greater methane mitigation. In the future, more attention should be paid to methane emissions from abandoned mines.
... Fang, et al. [88] found that the national carbon emission rights allocation mechanism, based on regional population size, ecologically productive land, GDP, and fossil energy resources, is unfair to the coal-supplying provinces (e.g., Shanxi and Inner Mongolia), leaving behind degraded environment yet receiving few carbon emission quotas. Furthermore, as some scholars observed, the rapid low-carbon transition in China has imposed unfair burdens on extractive regions [89,90]. Lo [90] highlighted that low-carbon transition in extractive areas intensified the pre-existing regional disparity. ...
... Most of China's coal-rich provinces are located in inland regions, which have faced longstanding regional disparity due to the difficulty of attracting investment. As such, these areas are facing severe economic and social challenges, such as widespread unemployment and increasing local revenue reduction [89]. ...
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Energy and environmental justice (EEJ) is an interdisciplinary field of study that examines the social, economic, and political dimensions of energy and environmental transitions. Studying EEJ in China is crucial as the country accelerates its transition towards environmental sustainability and carbon neutrality, highlighting the need for the development of more equitable energy and environmental policies. This paper offers a comprehensive review of academic research on EEJ in the Chinese context. Our review indicates that Chinese EEJ scholarship has identified instances of injustice in China's energy and ecological transitions and highlighted specific characteristics, including regional disparities, urban-rural inequality, and the disproportionate impact on migrant populations. However, the tendency to apply Western justice principles (e.g., distributive, recognition, and procedural justice) undermines the appreciation of the diverse and contextual interpretations of justice-related research in China. Furthermore, there is a lack of critical justice research that explores the root causes of injustice in China. The review suggests that future research can advance theoretical development by conducting cross-cultural studies, while also adopting a more critical approach that foregrounds the role of power in reproducing injustice. This review is useful for those interested in researching the social justice dimensions of energy and ecological transitions in China.
... However, the dependence of renewables on technological advances to replace fossil energy makes the energy transition costly and long lasting. The energy sector needs to promote carbon emission reduction using three methods urgently: (1) energy conservation and emissions reduction, (2) energy substitution and emissions reduction (replacing traditional fossil energy fuels with renewable energy) [6] and (3) de-energy emissions reduction (closures and transfers and other means of de-productivity) [4,7,8]. Among these methods, energy conservation and emissions reduction refer to all technically feasible, economically reasonable, environmentally and socially acceptable measures to improve energy efficiency. ...
... Still, based on the actual situation of Yan'an City, we measured the various emergy intensities from 2019 to 2021 based on the study of [55], which will improve the reliability of the research results to some extent. Table 2 shows the total emergy, emergy per unit money, emergy per unit labor and the bio-resources emergy per unit area of Yan'an City as calculated in Equations (6)- (8) and Equation (17). The total emergy of Yan'an City in 2019, 2020 and 2021 was 1.34 × 10 25 sej, 1.40 × 10 25 sej and 1.52 × 10 25 sej, respectively. ...
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China's energy and chemical enterprises in the resource-based urban cities face challenges of climate change targets. Coal, Oil and Gas Resources Comprehensive Utilization (COGRCU) project can address the carbon and hydrogen imbalance between conventional methanol from coal and natural gas. Moreover, it can improve energy conversion rates and carbon resource recovery. Therefore, it is a better way for energy and chemical enterprises to transition to sustainable development and advocated by enterprises in resource-based cities. In practice, the actual benefits of the COGRCU project are often different from those expected from prior assessments, and the main factors contributing to the differences need to be identified. Therefore, it is necessary to propose a post-evaluation methodology for the COGRCU project to assist energy and chemical enterprises in identifying these constraints and optimize project management. This study considers energy and monetary flows, combines emergy-based energy return on investment (EmEROI) and cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes a post-evaluation methodology of the COGRCU project based on the case study of YC Group's Fuxian COGRCU project in Fuxian County. In addition, the emergy per unit money, emergy per unit labor, and bio-resources emergy per unit area of Yan'an City are measured. Results showed that indirect energy and labor input emergy are the primary contributors to improving the projects' energy efficiency. Operating costs reduction are the key factors for improving economic benefits. The indirect energy has the highest impact on the project's EmEROI, followed by labor, direct energy, and environmental governance. Several policy recommendations are raised, including strengthening policy support, such as advancing the formulation and revision of fiscal and tax policies, improving project assets and human resource management, and increasing environmental governance efforts.
... This position is supported by a 2010 study by the ILO of displaced Australian power plant workers. It found that, on average, 62 workers would lose their jobs for each 10 MW in capacity closure at that time, and only 10% of those would be reemployed in new capacities, with the remaining 90% requiring employment assistance (He et al. 2020). To address the issue of a just energy transition, the Canadian government funded Eco Canada to produce a "Green Jobs Roadmap" to highlight ways in which coal workers could participate in the "green economy" (Harrahill and Douglas 2019). ...
... Ciplet and Harrison (2020) highlight how energy transition subsidies and incentives are often provided to those who have the financial resources, an approach that lacks a social justice lens. An example of the approach is the disproportional impact that the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and increasing retail energy prices have on poorer consumers that rely on those previously cheap fuels for heating, energy and cooking (Green and Gambhir 2020;He et al. 2020). Newell and Mulvaney (2013) extend the scope of an energy justice focused JT to address those communities and people currently in energy poverty, not just those at risk. ...
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As the world grapples with the issue of climate change, and efforts to decarbonize economies result in a shift from extractive “brown” industries to sustainable “green” ones, there is an increasing recognition of the need for this transition to be a just and equitable one. This systematic review of the Just Transitions literature examines the centrality of justice theory as well as the implications of the relative ambiguity with which governance models and theory have been conceptualized. Situating justice and governance theory in the Just Transitions concept, they are used to describe the “why” (justice) and the “how” (governance of transitions) of Just Transitions, and how these relate to the “what” (worker retraining, early retirement, regional development programmes, and so forth). The relatively poor articulation of the governance component within the Just Transitions concept is an opportunity for future academic examination.
... Governments and policy analysts worldwide are exploring policy tools to support a coal-to-green job pipeline across large greenhouse gas emitters, including China, 5,6 the United States, 7,8 and the European Union. 9,10 The transition of coal-related workers to green jobs is a growing topic beyond academic and policy discourse. ...
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Phasing out coal is essential for climate mitigation but can result in job losses. Although growing literature has reported green job opportunities (e.g., solar technicians) as a potential solution to the displacement of coal sector workers, the extent to which green jobs are easily accessible, regarding co-location and skill requirements, remains unclear. Here, we explore this issue in the context of China’s coal phaseout toward the 2060 carbon neutrality target. Using a coal power plant retirement model of 3,765 coal power units, we find that coal power plant workers must travel long distances (178–242 km) to reach a green job site. When further considering job skill qualifications, in total, fewer than 15% of these workers can easily access green jobs. Postponing the coal phaseout might further exacerbate the job transition challenge. Upstream industries of the renewable energy sector (e.g., electrical machinery), which can be located closer to coal power plants and have better job skill matching, can help alleviate the challenging prospect.
... Generally, CO 2 and non-CO 2 reductions are intricately linked to energy sector activities [23,24]. Changes in activity levels (i.e., fuel switching and demand reduction) driven by CO 2 mitigation policies will curb corresponding non-CO 2 emissions, mainly CH 4 [25]. For mitigation cost analysis, marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are a widely used tool [26][27][28][29]. ...
... Often, the distribution of these effects is not equitable across regions and communities. A low-carbon transition will no doubt lead to overall health benefits driven by reduced air pollution from fossil fuel power 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 4 plants, but the distribution of these benefits will depend on where and when these power plants reduce their generation or completely retire. The distribution of employment effects is less clear as provinces will experience job losses in fossil fuel mining and power generation while gaining employment through clean energy investments, the scale of which will depend on the renewable energy potential and associated manufacturing industries across provinces. ...
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Understanding the costs and the spatial distribution of health and employment outcomes of low-carbon electricity pathways is critical to enable an equitable transition. We integrate an electricity system planning model (GridPath), a health impact model (InMAP), and a multiregional input–output model to quantify China’s provincial-level impacts of electricity system decarbonization on costs, health outcomes, employment, and labor compensation. We find that even without specific CO2 constraints, declining renewable energy and storage costs enable a 26% decline in CO2 emissions in 2040 compared to 2020 under the Reference scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, pursuing 2 °C and 1.5 °C compatible carbon emission targets (85% and 99% decrease in 2040 CO2 emissions relative to 2020 levels, respectively) reduces air pollution-related premature deaths from electricity generation over 2020–2040 by 51% and 63%, but substantially increases annual average costs per unit of electricity demand in 2040 (21% and 39%, respectively). While the 2 °C pathway leads to a 3% increase in electricity sector-related net labor compensation, the 1.5 °C pathway results in a 19% increase in labor compensation driven by greater renewable energy deployment. Although disparities in health impacts across provinces narrow as fossil fuels phase out, disparities in labor compensation widen with wealthier East Coast provinces gaining the most in labor compensation because of materials and equipment manufacturing, and offshore wind deployment.
... Coal predominates as the principal power generation source, yet coal reserves are progressively diminishing year by year [3]. Hence, integrating new green energy sources and seamlessly connecting their power generation networks to the larger grid could efectively address the high-power consumption dilemma in remote residential areas [4]. ...
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Optimal scheduling of microgrids (MGs) is a crucial component of smart grid optimization, playing a vital role in minimizing energy consumption and environmental degradation. However, existing methods tend to consider only a single optimization and do not consider the multiobjective optimization problem of MGs in a comprehensive and integrated way. This study proposes a comprehensive multiobjective optimal scheduling methodology for renewable energy MGs, incorporating demand-side management (DSM) considerations. Initially, a DSM multiobjective optimization model is formulated, focusing on the load shifting of controllable devices within the MG to refine the electricity consumption structure. This model contemplates the renewable energy consumption of the MG, customer electricity purchase costs, and load smoothness. Subsequently, a multiobjective optimization model for grid-connected MGs, encompassing wind and photovoltaic power generation, is constructed with the dual objectives of economic and environmental optimization for the MG. Ultimately, a multimodal multiobjective optimization algorithm, amalgamating a local convergence index and an environment selection strategy, is proposed to solve the model. The experimental results show that compared with other methods, the proposed method in this paper can reduce the integrated cost by 32.6% and 38.9% in summer and 19.4% and 40.2% in winter. This stands out as a unique contribution in the field of MG optimization, as it integrates DSM considerations into a multiobjective optimization model. This methodology achieves a balance between minimizing energy consumption and environmental degradation while also enhancing economic efficiency.
... The water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus) is a framework that recognizes the interdependencies and trade-offs between water, energy, and food systems [1]. These systems are inextricably linked, with water being used to produce food and energy, energy being required to transport and treat water, and food being a source of energy and a user of water [2,3]. The WEF nexus approach aims to understand the complex interactions between these three systems and to identify strategies that can optimize their use while minimizing negative impacts on the environment and society [4]. ...
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The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus has emerged as a crucial framework for addressing the interdependencies and trade-offs between these vital resources. In the context of a just energy transition, where the pursuit of sustainable and equitable energy systems is paramount, understanding the WEF nexus becomes even more critical. We explore the evolving concept of the WEF nexus and its relevance to achieving a sustainable energy transition that considers social equity, environmental sustainability, and economic development. This paper highlights key challenges and opportunities in implementing a just energy transition within the context of the WEF nexus, with a focus on promoting social inclusion, ensuring water and food security, and optimizing energy production and consumption. Additionally, we discuss the importance of integrated policymaking, cross-sectoral collaboration, and innovative technologies in addressing the complex interactions between water, energy, and food systems.
... However, the power transition may alleviate one problem while simultaneously exacerbating others. For instance, the closure of coal-fired power plants will reduce cooling water withdrawal (advancing the achievement of SDG 6: clean water and sanitation) 11,12 but cause massive job losses in the coal power industry and its various ancillary, upstream, and downstream industries (hindering the achievement of SDG 8: decent work and economic growth) 13,14 . The expansion of low-carbon power such as wind power and solar energy as substitutes for fossil fuels can improve countries' ability to address climate change (advancing the achievement of SDG 13: climate action) 15 while increasing demand for critical materials (hindering the achievement of SDG 12: responsible consumption and production) 16,17 . ...
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... China is constantly exploring the transformation of the coal economy, and making the industry sustainable and combining new technologies to promote industrial development is an important goal at present. And now some admirable results have been made (He et al. 2020).The problem of hard roof suspension in deep mines may lead to extensive deformation of the roadway and even endanger the safety of personnel. It is important to find an effective and safe way to reduce the resulting high stresses (Sun et al. 2020). ...
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The COP28 agreement signals “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, calling on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. While a quantitative assessment of country's vulnerability in energy transition is a prerequisite for national and international policy makers to ensure a just and inclusive transition, it is notably absent in the existing research. Here, we develop a conceptual framework based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) method to assess differences in energy transition vulnerability across countries, with a specific focus on the challenges associated with transitioning away from fossil fuels. The resulting energy transition vulnerability index (ETVI) scores reveal that countries in the Global South generally exhibit higher vulnerability in their energy transition compared to those in the Global North, and this gap has widened over the past decade. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the decade-long trend of continuous decline in global energy transition vulnerability. This study also provides two important applications of ETVI scores, aligning them with major global sustainable development agenda. Firstly, we identify substantial differences in the dynamics of transition vulnerability across seven major party groups in the international climate change negotiations and distinguish four energy transition statuses in relation to achieving global climate goals: Stressful, Leapfrog, Potential Challenges, and Less Painful. Secondly, we demonstrate crucial synergies between energy transition resilience and the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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An appropriate decarbonisation pathway is crucial to achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060. This paper studies decarbonisation pathways for China's energy system between 2020 and 2060 using an open, provincial, and hourly resolved, networked model within the context of multi‐period planning with myopic investment foresight. Two representative decarbonisation pathways are compared, with particular attention to the synergies of coupling the electricity and heating sectors. An early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost‐effective than following a late and rapid path. Early decarbonisation in the electricity sector avoids stranded investments in fossil infrastructure and preserves the carbon budget for later emissions in the difficult‐to‐decarbonise heating sector. Retrofitting the existing coal power plants by adding carbon capture facilities is cost‐effective in both decarbonisation pathways. The hourly and non‐interrupted resolution for a full weather year reveals the balancing strategies of highly renewable, sector‐coupled systems. The significant seasonal variation of heat demand dominates long‐term storage behaviours.
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Against the backdrop of addressing the dual challenges of tightening energy constraints and carbon emission reduction, this paper, building upon the construction of an urban-level Energy Trilemma Index, employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to assess the impact of carbon emission right trading policy (CERTP) on the energy trilemma (ET). Key findings include: Firstly, compared to non-pilot areas, the ET in CERTP pilot areas decreased by 1.86%; the policy’s impact persists and is even greater in the long term, reaching 2.84%. Secondly, CERTP stimulates green technological innovation, improves energy consumption structures, and alleviates ET levels. Furthermore, the study shows that CERTP, as a market-driven energy-environmental strategy, is further enhanced by the regulatory effects of marketization and government intervention. Lastly, the policy’s impact is more pronounced in eastern China, resource-based cities, regions with stringent environmental regulations, and areas with high carbon prices. Based on these findings, the paper proposes a series of policy insights, not only aiding in understanding the causal relationship between CERTP and ET but also providing valuable references for designing carbon trading mechanisms to address ET. Importantly, the conclusions offer beneficial guidance for China’s energy structure optimization, ensuring energy security, and sustainable development goals.
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The deformation of surrounding rock in the withdrawal roadways of fully mechanized working faces is a critical factor affecting the safe and efficient withdrawal of mining equipment. In order to address this issue, an experimental study was conducted on an innovative method for pre-split blasting to protect withdrawal roadways, using a working face in Shaanxi Province, China, as the engineering background. Firstly, research was conducted using physical model experiments to study the protection of the withdrawal roadway through pre-split blasting. The results indicate that at a certain distance ahead of the working face, the use of pre-split blasting technology on the roof of the withdrawal roadway leads to a significant reduction in both surrounding rock deformation and stress in the blasted side Withdrawal Roadway (I) compared to the unblasted side Withdrawal Roadway (II). The effective blocking of the stress transmission path caused by mining-induced stress leads to substantial relief of stress concentration in the withdrawal roadway's surrounding rock. This demonstrates that pre-split blasting technology can effectively reduce the advance mining stress on the withdrawal roadway, achieving the goal of protecting the withdrawal roadway. Subsequently, numerical simulation experiments were conducted to further investigate the patterns of surrounding rock stress and displacement in the withdrawal roadway under the influence of advance mining stress during the excavation of the working face. Furthermore, the numerical simulation results closely match the data from the model experiments, confirming the accuracy of the model experiments. Finally, this technology was applied to an engineering site. Monitoring results show that when pre-split blasting technology is employed at the advance working face, the deformation of the surrounding rock in the withdrawal roadway is effectively controlled. The research findings provide valuable insights for the protection of similar withdrawal roadways.
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In acoustic temperature measurement, precise determination of sound propagation characteristics is critical for calculating sound propagation velocity. This study investigated the sound wave propagation path in loose coal by assessing the impact of average porosity and temperature on coal particles. Utilizing principles from acoustic temperature measurement and wave equation theory, we propose an equivalent path model for sound wave propagation in quasi-porous media of loose coal. We designed an experimental system and conducted acoustic propagation path tests on loose coal samples with three particle sizes: 0.6–1.5 cm, 1–3 cm and 3–5 cm. Through rigorous analysis, we identified key factors that influence the acoustic propagation path, such as particle size, temperature, and burial depth, which affect the average porosity of the quasi-porous medium. The measured sound velocities for coal samples of 0.6–1.5 cm, 1–3 cm, and 3–5 cm loose coal samples were 238.16 m/s, 252.11 m/s, and 277.36 m/s, respectively. We introduced the equivalent path conversion factor λ for sound wave propagation in loose coal, demonstrating its decrease with larger coal particle sizes. The research validated the accuracy of our equivalent path model, showing a minimal difference between measured and calibrated sound velocities (±4.47 m/s; 4.68% error rate). Our results have theoretical significance for acoustic temperature measurement in the field of loose coal body temperature assessment, offering valuable insights and methods for the advancement of acoustic coal temperature detection technology.
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The green energy revolution may displace 1.7 million fossil fuel workers in the US but a Just Transition to emerging green industry jobs offers possibilities for re-employing these workers. Here, using 14 years of power plant data from the US Energy Information Administration, job transition data from the Census Bureau, as well as employment and skills data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we assess whether people employed in fossil fuel resource extraction today are co-located and have the transferable skills to switch to expected green jobs. We find that these workers could leverage their mobility to other industries and have similar skills to green occupations. However, today’s fossil fuel extraction workers are not co-located with current sources of green energy production. Further, after accounting for federal employment projections, fossil fuel extraction workers are mostly not located in the regions where green employment will grow despite attaining the appropriate skillsets. These results suggest a large barrier to a Just Transition since fossil fuel extraction workers have not historically exhibited geospatial mobility. While stakeholders focus on re-skilling fossil fuel extraction workers, this analysis shows that co-location with emerging green employment will be the larger barrier to a Just Transition.
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Coal spontaneous combustion can cause a series of problems in terms of wasted resources, casualties, and environmental pollution. Accurate detection of the fire source in loose coal is the key to preventing coal spontaneous combustion. Acoustic temperature measurement has significant advantages of strong stability, high accuracy, and wide measurement range, which can make up for the shortcomings of traditional fire source detection methods. Detecting the optimum source signal for loose coal temperature measurement is the basis and prerequisite for the realization of acoustic temperature measurement. Therefore, the anti-interference characteristics of three typical sound source signals were tested and analyzed through a self-designed sound wave propagation characteristic test system. The cross-correlations among maximum length sequence signal, pulse signal, and linear sweep signal were compared and analyzed. Compared to the other two signals, the main peak of the cross-correlation coefficient of the linear sweep signal was more prominent and its pseudo-peaks interfered less with its main peak. This signal had strong anti-interference ability, and it can be used as a basic acoustic source signal for temperature measurement of loose coal. To further screen out the optimal frequency band and length of the linear sweep signal, four bituminous coals were selected as the propagation medium. The main peak value and the difference between the main peak and the maximum pseudo-peak of the cross-correlation coefficient were proposed as the evaluation indicators. The optimum signal frequency bands of long-flame coal, non-caking coal, coking coal, and lean coal were 400–900, 400–900, 500–1200, and 400–900 Hz, and the optimum signal length of four coals was 0.1 s. The study results can provide theoretical support for the selection of acoustic temperature measurement signals for loose coal.
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As countries pursue power system decarbonization, there are ongoing technical and policy efforts to enhance the integration of renewable energy sources. One well-intentioned strategy being pursued in jurisdictions like China is the institution of strict integration targets, often in the form of curtailment caps. The effects of these curtailment caps on power system decarbonization have not been systematically studied. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of the effects of these caps on the decarbonization of a power system. We consider their economic costs, effects on CO2 emissions, and effects on system reliability. We take Qinghai province in China as our case study, due to its aggressive renewable energy targets and rich renewable resources. Results reveal that curtailment caps yield deleterious effects on the transition to a decarbonized power system. Capping curtailment significantly increases flexible storage capacity (+43% with a 5% curtailment cap) and reduces installed renewable capacity (-17%). It also suppresses power generation from hydropower and reduces energy storage utilization, while increasing fossil fuel utilization. Capping curtailment increases economic costs (+6% with a 5% curtailment cap) and CO2 emissions (+7%). Even with the increase in flexible storage capacity, the policy still jeopardizes power system reliability by increasing occurrences of over or under generation. These effects do not align with the stated goals of these policies, so policymakers must think carefully about the consequences of their promulgation.
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Supercritical water gasification (SCWG) of coal provides a new solution for the green transformation and upgrading of traditional coal industry. Considering the good coal adaptability of SCWG and the excellent catalytic performance of K2CO3, a new kinetic model was developed in this work for predicting the catalytic gasification characteristics of coal of different ranks in supercritical water (SCW). In this model, various ranks of coal are characterized by the combination of three types of primary coal in different proportions, and the proportions can be obtained based on elemental analysis data and matrix computation. The SCWG of various ranks of coal can be considered as a combination of reactions of three types of primary coal in SCW. The model contains a total of 18 reactions, and various intermediates are represented by phenol and a high-carbon hydrocarbon. K2CO3-catalyzed SCWG experimental data of three different coal samples obtained in an improved quartz tube reactor system were used for the determination of model kinetic parameters. Then the experimental results of catalytic SCWG of other coal samples were used for the model validation, and it was found that the model can effectively predict the variations of gaseous products within an acceptable error. Afterward, the model was used to predict carbon gasification efficiency and gas compositions for coal of different ranks and to analyze carbon distribution and reaction rates for specific coal. The proposed kinetic model fits well with the good coal adaptability of SCWG technology, and it has great significance for the promotion of SCWG technology.
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Reducing CO2 emissions from coal-fired electricity generation in China is critical to limit global warming. Long-term projections of China’s electricity supply tend to assume that coal generation will be a mainstay of China’s electricity system through 2050, due to limitations in the scalability of hydropower, nuclear, and natural gas generation and the commercial availability of carbon capture and storage. This paper examines the resource, economic, and institutional implications of reducing and replacing coal generation in China with mostly renewable energy and energy storage by 2040. We find that the scale of solar, wind, and storage resources needed to do so is on the order of 100-150 GW/year of solar and wind capacity and 15 GW/year of energy storage from 2020 to 2025, growing to 250 GW/year and 90 GW/year, respectively, from 2025 to 2040. We then also evaluate the sensitivities if coal plants are retired by 2050.
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Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades. COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns have altered global energy demands. Using government confinement policies and activity data, daily CO2 emissions have decreased by ~17% to early April 2020 against 2019 levels; annual emissions could be down by 7% (4%) if normality returns by year end (mid-June).
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The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have dropped markedly since 2010, however, many recent studies and reports around the world have not adequately captured such dramatic decrease. Those costs are projected to decline further in the near future, bringing new prospects for the widespread penetration of renewables and extensive power-sector decarbonization that previous policy discussions did not fully consider. Here we show if cost trends for renewables continue, 62% of China’s electricity could come from non-fossil sources by 2030 at a cost that is 11% lower than achieved through a business-as-usual approach. Further, China’s power sector could cut half of its 2015 carbon emissions at a cost about 6% lower compared to business-as-usual conditions.
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German hard coal production ended in 2018, following the termination of subsidies. This paper looks at 60 years of continuous decline of an industry that employed more than 600,000 people, through a case study comparing Germany’s two largest hard coal mining areas (Ruhr area and Saarland). Although predominantly economic drivers underlay the transitions, both provide valuable lessons for upcoming coal phase-outs induced by stricter climate policies, including beyond Germany. The analysis identifies the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the two regions. It then discusses policy instruments implemented to guide the transition, including measures for the conservation of coal production, regional economic reorientation, and the easing of the transition’s social impacts. The success of these policies is evaluated using economic, social, and geographical indicators that were developed within three interdisciplinary research projects running from 2016 to 2019. A key lesson from the examined case studies is the importance of combining not only policies addressing unemployment and the attraction of new energy corporations and investments, but also measures improving infrastructure, education, research facilities and soft location factors. Protecting a declining industry for decades caused increased transition costs compared to an earlier phase-out. Economic reorientation and changing regional identities have proven most difficult in the past. However, the German example illustrates that the complexity of the challenges of a transition can be mastered if city, regional, and national governments and institutions cooperate in a polycentric approach. Key policy insights • A faster and more pro-active hard coal mining phase-out in Germany would have been much less expensive and paved the way for new industries • A just and in-time transition needs to: • be jointly managed in a polycentric approach by city, regional, national, and international governments and institutions. • combine climate, energy, social, and structural policies, whilst recognizing both local specifics and global connections. • consider long-term effects, external independent advice apart from the incumbent regime and beyond-border thinking, while aiming to diversify the economy and enabling broad stakeholder participation. • address unemployment, the economy, and the energy system, as well as measures to improve infrastructure, universities, research facilities, and soft location factors.
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A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built. The plant-by-plant retirement needs are not well-understood yet to achieve the rapid transition away from coal use. Here the authors found that operational lifetimes of existing units must be reduced to approximately 35 years to keep warming well below 2 °C or 20 years for 1.5 °C, even if no new capacity comes online.
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In 2014, China introduced an ultra-low emissions (ULE) standards policy for renovating coal-fired power-generating units to limit SO2, NOx and particulate matter (PM) emissions to 35, 50 and 10 mg m⁻³, respectively. The ULE standard policy had ambitious levels (surpassing those of all other countries) and implementation timeline. We estimate emission reductions associated with the ULE policy by constructing a nationwide, unit-level, hourly-frequency emissions dataset using data from a continuous emissions monitoring systems network covering 96–98% of Chinese thermal power capacity during 2014–2017. We find that between 2014 and 2017 China’s annual power emissions of SO2, NOx and PM dropped by 65%, 60% and 72%, respectively. Our estimated emissions using actual monitoring data are 18–92% below other recent estimates. We detail the technologies used to meet the ULE standards and the determinants of compliance, underscoring the importance of ex post evaluation and providing insights for other countries wishing to reduce their power emissions.
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Significance More intense extreme events are projected under future climate change. However, the impacts of climate extremes on future air quality and associated health implications are not well recognized and are rarely quantified in China, with an enormous health burden from air pollution. Here, we estimate the climate-driven air pollution mortality in China and find that future climate change is likely to exacerbate air pollution mortality, largely influenced by the more intense extreme events such as stagnation events and heat waves. Our analysis provides quantitative assessments and insights regarding the links between climate extremes, future air quality, and public health, suggesting that extreme weather events may be an important mechanism by which climate change will affect air quality, and especially fine particulate matter.
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Significance Impacts of a newly launched rural residential solid fuel substitution campaign in China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area on energy, emission, air quality, and exposure reveal that abating solid fuels will significantly reduce ambient and indoor air pollution, resulting in major health benefits. The campaign will help accelerate China’s energy transition and reduce PM 2.5 emission and exposure. The expected exposure reduction is largely due to improved indoor air quality, resulting in greater benefits to women.
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Net anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must approach zero by mid-century (2050) to stabilize global mean temperature at the levels targeted by international efforts1–5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel energy infrastructure implies already ‘committed’ future CO2 emissions6–13. Here we use detailed datasets of current fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of ‘committed’ CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will emit about 658 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 (ranging from 226 to 1,479 Gt CO2 depending on assumed lifetimes and utilization rates). More than half of these emissions are projected to come from the electricity sector, and infrastructure in China, the USA and the EU28 countries represent approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit approximately an additional 188 (range 37–427) Gt CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 Gt CO2) thus represent more than the entire remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 °C with a probability of 50–66 per cent (420–580 Gt CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to below 2 °C (1,170–1,500 Gt CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, depending on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our emission estimates suggest that little or no additional CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that infrastructure retirements that are earlier than historical ones (or retrofits with carbon capture and storage technology) may be necessary, in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. On the basis of the asset value per ton of committed emissions, we estimate that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternative technologies are available and affordable4,18.
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To keep global warming within 1.5 °C of pre-industrial levels, there needs to be a substantial decline in the use of coal power by 20301,2 and in most scenarios, complete cessation by 20501,3. The members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), launched in 2017 at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, are committed to “phasing out existing unabated coal power generation and a moratorium on new coal power generation without operational carbon capture and storage”⁴. The alliance has been hailed as a ‘political watershed’⁵ and a new ‘anti-fossil fuel norm’⁶. Here we estimate that the premature retirement of power plants pledged by PPCA members would cut emissions by 1.6 GtCO2, which is 150 times less than globally committed emissions from existing coal power plants. We also investigated the prospect of major coal consumers joining the PPCA by systematically comparing members to non-members. PPCA members extract and use less coal and have older power plants, but this alone does not fully explain their pledges to phase out coal power. The members of the alliance are also wealthier and have more transparent and independent governments. Thus, what sets them aside from major coal consumers, such as China and India, are both lower costs of coal phase-out and a higher capacity to bear these costs.
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Background: Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level. Methods: We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (-3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4). Interpretation: China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system. Funding: China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030, with best efforts to peak early, and also to achieve 20% non-fossil energy as a proportion of primary energy supply by 2030. These commitments were included in China’s nationally-determined contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed-method methodology for analyzing the likelihood of current Chinese policies reducing greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with China’s Paris commitments. We find that China is likely to peak its emissions well in advance of 2030 and achieve its non-fossil target conditional on full and effective implementation of all current policies, successful conclusion of power-sector reform, and full implementation of a national emissions-trading system (ETS) for the power and additional major industrial sectors after 2020. Several policy gaps are identified and discussed.
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As energy and water are fundamentally intertwined, understanding the spatial and temporal evolution of thermoelectric water use and water stress is important for both sustainable energy development and water resource management. Here we compile high-resolution time-series (2000–2015) of water withdrawal and consumption inventories for China’s thermoelectric power sector to identify the driving forces behind changing water use patterns, and reveal the spatial distribution of thermoelectric water stress. We show that freshwater withdrawal has been decoupled from thermoelectric power generation growth at the national level due to the increased adoption of air-cooling and seawater-cooling technologies and advanced large generating units as well as water use efficiency improvements in this period. Nevertheless, the construction of large coal-fired power generation hubs has increased water stress in many arid and water-scarce catchments in northwestern regions of China. The westward development of the power industry necessitates water-withdrawal caps and the integration of water risk analysis into energy planning. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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In 2017, the UK and Canada launched the ‘Powering Past Coal Alliance’ (PPCA), a coalition of governments, organisations and businesses seeking to establish a phase-out of coal for electricity generation by 2050 at the latest. Yet, most of the countries that have signed the charter do not burn coal in large quantities. Some do not even burn coal at all. This raises an important question: Why do countries join such an Alliance? We advance four hypotheses that revolve around material costs, political economy, feedback effects, and identity. We conduct a study of 38 country cases. Through a crisp set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA) we test which combination of variables explains our outcome of interest (state membership in the PPCA). The results indicate that countries that have no coal in their electricity mix and that have adopted a phase-out plan are most likely to join the PPCA. There are two combinations of conditions almost always lead to the outcome: Countries join the PPCA if they have a phase-out plan and are a climate leader, or they have a phase-out plan and do not have a strong coal industry. Conversely, the solution for non-membership shows that countries do not join the PPCA if they are not a climate leader and do not have a phase out plan, or have a strong coal industry. The results further suggest that the PPCA should focus on different outreach methods, beyond merely expanding its membership, including technical diplomacy and maintaining political momentum at high-level political events.
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In 2017, the UK and Canada launched the ‘Powering Past Coal Alliance’ (PPCA), a coalition of governments, organisations and businesses seeking to establish a phase-out of coal for electricity generation by 2050 at the latest. Yet, most of the countries that have signed the charter do not burn coal in large quantities. Some do not even burn coal at all. This raises an important question: Why do countries join such an Alliance? We advance four hypotheses that revolve around material costs, political economy, feedback effects, and identity. We conduct a study of 38 country cases. Through a crisp set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA) we test which combination of variables explains our outcome of interest (state membership in the PPCA). The results indicate that countries that have no coal in their electricity mix and that have adopted a phase-out plan are most likely to join the PPCA. There are two combinations of conditions almost always lead to the outcome: Countries join the PPCA if they have a phase-out plan and are a climate leader, or they have a phase-out plan and do not have a strong coal industry. Conversely, the solution for non-membership shows that countries do not join the PPCA if they are not a climate leader and do not have a phase out plan, or have a strong coal industry. The results further suggest that the PPCA should focus on different outreach methods, beyond merely expanding its membership, including technical diplomacy and maintaining political momentum at high-level political events.
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While the decarbonization of the global economy will bring immense benefits in the aggregate and to many individuals, it will also be disruptive and costly for some, at least in the short term. As these disruptions and costs have become increasingly salient in recent years, there has been an explosion of interest in the climate policy community about how low-carbon transitions can be implemented justly, equitably, and politically smoothly. A key part of what is needed in responding to this growing interest is a better understanding of the suite of ‘transitional assistance policies’ and strategies that can be deployed, alongside or as part of climate change mitigation policies and processes. Responding to this need, we survey a wide, multi-disciplinary literature to answer the ‘who’, ‘what’ and ‘how’ of transitional assistance policy: who is likely to be adversely affected by the low-carbon transition, and in what ways? What substantive strategies and policy instruments are available to governments to mitigate the burdens of low-carbon transitions? And how can governments implement such strategies and policies successfully? In the course of answering the first two of these questions, we develop a novel typology of transitional assistance policies, in which multiple policies are parsimoniously classified according to one of four coherent policy strategies, and one of five kinds of beneficiaries. In answering the third question, we emphasize the importance of certain ‘state capacities’ for shaping transition processes and managing vested interests. Key policy insights • Without transitional assistance policies, consumers, workers, businesses, specially-affected communities, and states that are highly dependent on emissions-intensive assets stand to lose from decarbonization. • Transitional assistance policies can be narrow (addressing financial losses only) or broad (addressing a wider range of losses), and conservative (backward-looking) or adaptive (forward-looking). • Combining these elements yields four coherent transitional assistance strategies: compensation; exemption; structural adjustment assistance; and comprehensive adaptive support. • Comprehensive adaptive support strategies have greatest potential for just, equitable and smooth transition outcomes, but are costlier and more complex to implement. • State capacities to steer complex, long-term transitions are therefore a crucial variable in transition success.
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Book
This book is primarily based on data from the third analysis of domestic energy consumption, and it combines the conclusive summarizes from the previous two investigations. The book sets out to extend the spatial dimension of the research to a global one and discusses future development of domestic energy consumption from a global perspective. Additionally, the book seeks to discover general rules and diversity features via comparison, domestic vs. global. Future predictions via observations and summaries of history are provided for the reader in this volume as well. The studies in this volume not only provide a basic and supportive index for academic research, but also provide readers with a concrete sketch for people to understand energy use in their day-to-day lives, and it provides policy makers with fundamental, need-to-know data.
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Financing electricity for all programs has been a main barrier to achieve universal energy access. In this paper, we investigate the financing mechanisms of China’s electricity for all programs with a focus on the last mile problem, and we find that central investment, cost sharing, and public-private partnerships are essential for China’s success in such programs. We also discuss the challenges to disseminate those financial mechanisms to enable successful electricity for all programs.
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As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China.
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Carbon dioxide emissions trading systems (ETS) are an important market-based mitigation strategy and have been applied in many regions. This study evaluates the potential for a national ETS in China. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed representations of economic activity, emissions, and income distribution, we examine alternative mitigation policies from now until 2050. Based on statistical and survey data, we disaggregate the labor and household sectors and simulate the impacts of ETS policies on the incomes of different household groups. We find that ETS has the potential to reconcile China's goals for sustained, inclusive, and low-carbon economic growth. Results show some key findings. First, the number of unemployed people in energy-intensive industries such as coal and construction will continue to increase; by 2050, employment in the coal industry will decline by 75%. Second, if the scope of the carbon market extends to all industries in China, carbon market revenues will continue to increase, reaching a maximum of 2278 billion yuan ($336 billion) in 2042 to become the world's largest carbon market. Third, the distribution of benefits from the national ETS can help achieve greater social equity. By comparing different distribution policies, we find that the combination of targeted subsidies for unemployed coal workers and direct household subsidies based on proportional per capita will reduce the social income gap to the greatest extent compared with other scenarios. By 2050, this distribution policy will reduce the Gini coefficient in China by 10% compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario.
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China’s leaders are increasingly committed to low-carbon economic development. Although China’s economy has dramatically transformed since the initiation of economic reforms in 1978, it is still structurally different from post-industrial, high-income countries, and economic reform is ongoing. At the same time, China is taking major steps towards regulating its carbon dioxide emissions. China is currently preparing to implement a national carbon dioxide emissions trading system (ETS), which will be the largest ETS in the world. Our analysis demonstrates how these major economic and emissions policies are linked in China’s economy. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China’s economy to simulate the interaction between a structural transition policy and a national ETS. We demonstrate an important policy instrument – the household savings rate – for stimulating economic transition. We show that by increasing consumption in lower emissions-intensity sectors, China can sustain growth in its economy while reducing emissions and transitioning to a more OECD-like economic structure. In addition, emissions reductions from an ETS regulation can be achieved at a lower cost for regulated firms when taking into account the changing structure of the economy.
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Emissions from power plants in China and India contain a myriad of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, PM ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter) precursors, posing significant health risks among large, densely settled populations. Studies isolating the contributions of various source classes and geographic regions are limited in China and India, but such information could be helpful for policy makers attempting to identify efficient mitigation strategies. We quantified the impact of power generation emissions on annual mean PM2.5 concentrations using the state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) in China and India. Evaluations using nationwide surface measurements show the model performs reasonably well. We calculated province-specific annual changes in mortality and life expectancy due to power generation emissions generated PM2.5 using the Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model, recently updated IER parameters from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015, population data, and the World Health Organization (WHO) life tables for China and India. We estimate that 15 million (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 10 to 21 million) years of life lost can be avoided in China each year and 11 million (95% CI: 7 to 15 million) in India by eliminating power generation emissions. Priorities in upgrading existing power generating technologies should be given to Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan provinces in China, and Uttar Pradesh state in India due to their dominant contributions to the current health risks.
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This paper investigates how collusion between regulators and firms affects workplace safety using the case of China's coal mine deaths. We argue that decentralization makes collusion more likely and that its effect is strengthened if the transaction costs of collusion are lower. These hypotheses are tested by investigating the impact of decentralization contingent on regulators' characteristics. Exploring both decentralization and centralization reforms in the coal mine industry, we find that decentralization is correlated with an increase in coal mine death rates. Moreover, this increase in mortality is larger for the regulators with lower transaction costs (proxied by the locality of origin). © 2017 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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In this paper, we reviewed four key themes in the study of clean power transition in China, the resources potential, the technology advancement, the air pollution control, and the policy and reform of the power sector. In each theme, we summarized the ongoing research development and highlighted some key areas for further study. Given that China’s power sector transition is a huge task, we hope this review will add some discussions into the ongoing conversation.
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Slowing GDP growth, a structural shift away from heavy industry, and more proactive policies on air pollution and clean energy have caused China's coal use to peak. It seems that economic growth has decoupled from growth in coal consumption.
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In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO2 emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO2 emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO2 emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved.
Global Warming of 1.5 C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018). Global Warming of 1.5 C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Enhanced Actions on Climate Change: China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions