Article

Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

July 2020
Journal of Climate 33(18):1-43

DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0976.1

Authors:

Tom Rippeth

Bangor University

Ilker Fer

University of Bergen

Matthew Buckley Alkire

University of Washington

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A 15-year duration record of mooring observations from the eastern (>70°E) Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean is used to show and quantify the recently increased oceanic heat flux from intermediate-depth (∼150-900 m) warm Atlantic Water (AW) to the surface mixed layer (SML) and sea ice. The upward release of AW heat is regulated by the stability of the overlying halocline, which we show has weakened substantially in recent years. Shoaling of the AW has also contributed, with observations in winter 2017-2018 showing AW at only 80 m depth, just below the wintertime surface mixed layer (SML), the shallowest in our mooring records. The weakening of the halocline for several months at this time implies that AW heat was linked to winter convection associated with brine rejection during sea ice formation. This resulted in a substantial increase of upward oceanic heat flux during the winter season, from an average of 3-4 W/m2 in 2007-2008 to >10 W/m2 in 2016-2018. This seasonal AW heat loss in the eastern EB is equivalent to a more than a two-fold reduction of winter ice growth. These changes imply a positive feedback as reduced sea ice cover permits increased mixing, augmenting the summer-dominated ice-albedo feedback.

Phytoplankton of the High-Latitude Arctic: Intensive Growth Large Diatoms Porosira glacialis in the Nansen Basin

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

In August 2020, during a dramatical summer retreat of sea ice in the Nansen Basin, a study of phytoplankton was conducted on the transect from two northern stations in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) (north of 83° N m and east of 38° E) through the open water to the southern station located in the Franz Victoria Trench. The presence of melted polar surface waters (mPSW), polar surface waters (PS,W), and Atlantic waters (AW) were characteristic of the MIZ. There are only two water masses in open water, namely PSW and AW, at the southernmost station; the contribution of AW was minimal. In the MIZ, first-year and multiyear ice species and Atlantic species were noted; Atlantic species and first-year ice species were in open water, and only ice flora was at the southernmost station. The maximum phytoplankton biomass (30 g m−3) was recorded at the northernmost station of the MIZ, and 99% of the phytoplankton consisted of a large diatom Porosira glacialis. Intensive growth of this species occurred on the subsurface halocline separating mPSW from PSW. A thermocline was formed in open water south of the MIZ towards the Franz Victoria Trench. A strong stratification decreases vertical nutrient fluxes, so phytoplankton biomass decreases significantly. Phytoplankton formed the maximum biomass in the thermocline. When moving south, biomass decreased and its minimum values were observed at the southernmost station where the influence of AW is minimal or completely absent. A transition from the silicon-limited state of phytoplankton (MIZ area) to nitrogen-limited (open water) was noted.

Copernicus Marine Sea Surface Temperature and chlorophyll-a indicators for two Pacific Islands: a co-construction monitoring framework for an integrated, transdisciplinary, multi-scale approach

Article

Jan 2022

Decadal Changes in the Pathways of the Atlantic Water Core in the Arctic Ocean Inferred From Transient Tracers

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2024

The Atlantic Water plays a major and increasing role in the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean (Atlantification). The pathways of Atlantic Water within the Arctic Ocean, and in particular their sensitivities to large‐scale atmospheric patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation, remain unclear. In this study, we used the trace gases CFC‐12 and SF6

{\text{SF}}_{6}

to investigate the Atlantic Water pathways during different phases of the Arctic Oscillation. We calculated tracer ages for the temperature maximum of the Atlantic Water, focusing on repeated transects (1994, 2005, 2015) in the Amerasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. During a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in 1994, tracer ages were low along the Chukchi shelf due to a strong coherent boundary current. In contrast, the ages were up to 10 years higher in 2015 without this coherent current during a mixed phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further, we identified a discontinuity in the inflow between the Makarov Basin and the Canada Basin during this phase. Tracer ages were 10 years higher in the Canada Basin, suggesting a closed circulation without direct inflow in this region. Our tracer ages generally align with previously proposed circulation schemes and water ages, with major exceptions in 2015. We have shown that the tracer ages are applicable to identify decadal changes in the Atlantic Water core pathways in the central Arctic Ocean.

Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2024

Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015–2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack. While wind speeds increase most during fall (+2.2% per decade), surface stress rises most in winter (+5.1% per decade) being amplified by reduced internal ice stress. This is because, as sea ice concentration decreases in a warming climate, less energy is dissipated by the weaker ice pack, resulting in more momentum transfer to the ocean. The increased momentum transfer accelerates Arctic Ocean surface velocity (+31–47% by 2100), leading to elevated ocean kinetic energy and enhanced vertical mixing. The enhanced surface stress also increases the Beaufort Gyre Ekman convergence and freshwater content, impacting Arctic marine ecosystems and the downstream ocean circulation. The impacts of projected changes are profound, but different and simplified model formulations of atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer introduce considerable uncertainty, highlighting the need for improved coupling in climate models.

The Eurasian Arctic Ocean along the MOSAiC drift in 2019–2020: An interdisciplinary perspective on physical properties and processes

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2024

The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC, 2019–2020), a year-long drift with the Arctic sea ice, has provided the scientific community with an unprecedented, multidisciplinary dataset from the Eurasian Arctic Ocean, covering high atmosphere to deep ocean across all seasons. However, the heterogeneity of data and the superposition of spatial and temporal variability, intrinsic to a drift campaign, complicate the interpretation of observations. In this study, we have compiled a quality-controlled physical hydrographic dataset with best spatio-temporal coverage and derived core parameters, including the mixed layer depth, heat fluxes over key layers, and friction velocity. We provide a comprehensive and accessible overview of the ocean conditions encountered along the MOSAiC drift, discuss their interdisciplinary implications, and compare common ocean climatologies to these new data. Our results indicate that, for the most part, ocean variability was dominated by regional rather than seasonal signals, carrying potentially strong implications for ocean biogeochemistry, ecology, sea ice, and even atmospheric conditions. Near-surface ocean properties were strongly influenced by the relative position of sampling, within or outside the river-water influenced Transpolar Drift, and seasonal warming and meltwater input. Ventilation down to the Atlantic Water layer in the Nansen Basin allowed for a stronger connectivity between subsurface heat and the sea ice and surface ocean via elevated upward heat fluxes. The Yermak Plateau and Fram Strait regions were characterized by heterogeneous water mass distributions, energetic ocean currents, and stronger lateral gradients in surface water properties in frontal regions. Together with the presented results and core parameters, we offer context for interdisciplinary research, fostering an improved understanding of the complex, coupled Arctic System.

Arctic Ocean simulations in the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

Article

Full-text available

May 2023
GMD

Arctic Ocean simulations in 19 global ocean–sea-ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated in this paper. Our findings show no significant improvements in Arctic Ocean simulations from the previous Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II) to the current OMIP. Large model biases and inter-model spread exist in the simulated mean state of the halocline and Atlantic Water layer in the OMIP models. Most of the OMIP models suffer from a too thick and deep Atlantic Water layer, a too deep halocline base, and large fresh biases in the halocline. The OMIP models qualitatively agree on the variability and change of the Arctic Ocean freshwater content; sea surface height; stratification; and volume, heat, and freshwater transports through the Arctic Ocean gateways. They can reproduce the changes in the gateway transports observed in the early 21st century, with the exception of the Bering Strait. We also found that the OMIP models employing the NEMO ocean model simulate relatively larger volume and heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening. Overall, the performance of the Arctic Ocean simulations is similar between the CORE2-forced OMIP-1 and JRA55-do-forced OMIP-2 experiments.

Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023
NATURE

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties1. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing2. Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Enhances the Oceanic Contribution to Climate Change

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

Vladimir Ivanov

Since the mid-1990s, there has been a marked decrease in the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean. After reaching an absolute minimum in September 2012, the seasonal variations in the SIE have settled at a new level, which is almost one-quarter lower than the average climatic norm of 1979–2022. Increased melting and accelerated ice export from marginal seas ensure an increase in the open water area, which affects the lower atmosphere and the surface layer of the ocean. Scientists are cautiously predicting a transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean as early as the middle of this century, which is about 50 years earlier than was predicted just a few years ago. Such predictions are based on the fact that the decrease in sea ice extent and ice thinning that occurred at the beginning of this century, initially caused by an increase in air temperature, triggered an increase in the thermal and dynamic contribution of the ocean to the further reduction in the ice cover. This paper reviews published evidence of such changes and discusses possible mechanisms behind the observed regional anomalies of the Arctic Sea ice cover parameters in the last decade.

Winter Vertical Diffusion Rates in the Arctic Ocean, Estimated From Be Measurements and Dissipation Rate Profiles

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

Ocean turbulent mixing is a key process affecting the uptake and redistribution of heat, carbon, nutrients, oxygen and other dissolved gasses. Vertical turbulent diffusivity sets the rates of water mass transformations and ocean mixing, and is intrinsically an average quantity over process time scales. Estimates based on microstructure profiling, however, are typically obtained as averages over individual profiles. How representative such averaged diffusivities are, remains unexplored in the quiescent Arctic Ocean. Here, we compare upper ocean vertical diffusivities in winter, derived from the ⁷Be tracer‐based approach to those estimated from direct turbulence measurements during the year‐long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, 2019–2020. We found that diffusivity estimates from both methods agree within their respective measurement uncertainties. Diffusivity estimates obtained from dissipation rate profiles are sensitive to the averaging method applied, and the processing and analysis of similar data sets must take this sensitivity into account. Our findings indicate low characteristic diffusivities around 10⁻⁶ m² s⁻¹ and correspondingly low vertical heat fluxes.

Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2022

The volume, extent and age of Arctic sea ice is in decline, yet winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Previous work suggests that further warming will at some point lead to a decline in ice production, however a consistent explanation of both rise and fall is hitherto missing. Here, we investigate these driving factors through a simple linear model for ice production. We focus on the Kara and Laptev seas-sometimes referred to as Arctic “ice factories” for their outsized role in ice production, and train the model on internal variability across the Community Earth System Model’s Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). The linear model is highly skilful at explaining internal variability and can also explain the forced rise-then-fall of ice production, providing insight into the competing drivers of change. We apply our linear model to the same climate variables from observation-based data; the resulting estimate of ice production over recent decades suggests that, just as in CESM-LE, we are currently passing the peak of ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas.

Influence of suspended particulate matter on the optical properties of seawater in the western Eurasian Arctic shelf

Conference Paper

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Dec 2022

Recent emergence of Arctic atlantification dominated by climate warming

Article

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Nov 2024

The Arctic Ocean's Eurasian Basin underwent notable atlantification during the 2010s, characterized by warming of the Atlantic Water layer and increased upper ocean salinity. Despite profound implications for the Arctic climate system and marine ecosystems, the primary drivers of this process remain debated. One hypothesis suggested that alternating phases of the atmospheric Arctic Dipole may have mitigated recent atlantification. Here, we use high-resolution model simulations to disentangle the main contributors to atlantification in the Arctic basin. We show that the decline in Arctic sea ice was the dominant driver, while wind variability associated with the Arctic Dipole played a minor role, contributing slightly rather than mitigating the process. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation also made a relatively small contribution. Although recent changes in atmospheric circulation over the Greenland Sea tended to reduce warm water inflow through the Fram Strait, this cooling effect on the Arctic Atlantic Water layer was outweighed by the warming induced by sea ice decline.

Borealization impacts shelf ecosystems across the Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2024

Climate change is rapidly modifying biodiversity across the Arctic, driving a shift from Arctic to more boreal ecosystem characteristics. This phenomenon, known as borealization, is mainly described for certain functional groups along sub-Arctic inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas). In this review, we evaluate the spatial extent of such alterations across the Arctic, as well as their effects on ecosystem-level processes and risks. Along the inflow shelves, borealization is driven by long-term strengthened inflow of increasingly warm waters from the south and punctuated by advection and low sea ice extreme events. A growing body of literature also points to an emerging borealization of the other Arctic shelf ecosystems, through a “spillover” effect, as local changes in environmental conditions enable movement or transport of new species from inflow shelves. These modifications are leading to changes across functional groups, although many uncertainties remain regarding under-sampled groups, such as microbes, and technical challenges of consistent, regular monitoring across regions. There is also clear consensus that borealization is affecting phenology, species composition, community traits, population structure and essential habitats, species interactions, and ecosystem resilience. Non-dynamic environmental factors, such as depth and photoperiod, are thought to limit the complete borealization of the system, and may lead to intermediate, “hybrid” ecosystems in the future. We expect current borders of Arctic and boreal ecosystems to progress further northward and ultimately reach an equilibrium state with seasonal borealization. Risks to the system are difficult to estimate, as adaptive capacities of species are poorly understood. However, ice-associated species are clearly most at risk, although some might find temporary refuge in areas with a slower rate of change. We discuss the likely character of future Arctic ecosystems and highlight the uncertainties. Those changes have implications for local communities and the potential to support Blue Growth in the Arctic. Addressing these issues is necessary to assess the full scale of Arctic climate impacts and support human mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The Influence of the Atlantic Water Boundary Current on the Phytoplankton Composition and Biomass in the Northern Barents Sea and the Adjacent Nansen Basin

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2024

The modern Arctic is characterized by a decreased ice cover and significant interannual variability. However, the reaction of the High Arctic ecosystem to such changes is still being determined. This study tested the hypothesis that the key drivers of changes in phytoplankton are the position and intensity of Atlantic water (AW) flow. The research was conducted in August 2017 in the northern part of the Barents Sea and in August 2020 in the Nansen Basin. In 2017, the Nansen Basin was ice covered; in 2020, the Nansen Basin had open water up to 83° N. A comparative analysis of phytoplankton composition, dominant species, abundance, and biomass at the boundary of the ice and open water in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) as well as in the open water was carried out. The total biomass of the phytoplankton in the photic layer of MIZ is one and a half orders of magnitude greater than in open water. In 2017, the maximum abundance and biomass of phytoplankton in the MIZ were formed by cold-water diatoms Thalassiosira spp. (T. gravida, T. rotula, T. hyalina, T. nordenskioeldii), associated with first-year ice. They were confined to the northern shelf of the Barents Sea. The large diatom Porosira glacialis grew intensively in the MIZ of the Nansen Basin under the influence of Atlantic waters. A seasonal thermocline, above which the concentrations of silicon and nitrogen were close to zero, and deep maxima of phytoplankton abundance and biomass were recorded in the open water. Atlantic species—haptophyte Phaeocystis pouchettii and large diatom Eucampia groenlandica—formed these maxima. P. pouchettii were observed in the Nansen Basin in the Atlantic water (AW) flow (2020); E. groenlandica demonstrated a high biomass (4848 mg m−3, 179.5 mg C m−3) in the Franz Victoria trench (2017). Such high biomass of this species in the northern Barents Sea shelf has not been observed before. The variability of the phytoplankton composition and biomass in the Franz Victoria trench and in the Nansen Basin is related to the intensity of the AW, which comes from the Frame Strait as the Atlantic Water Boundary Current.

Responses of the Arctic sea ice drift to general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2024
CLIM DYNAM

Sea ice drift in the Arctic Ocean impacts ice mass balance, ocean currents, ice deformation, and freshwater output into lower latitudes. Satellite observation reveals that the Arctic sea ice drift has accelerated under global warming. Meanwhile, previous studies also found that local atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation modulates the Arctic sea ice drift. However, the mechanisms linking the Arctic sea ice drift change to the general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere are not clearly addressed. Based on a sea ice‒ocean coupled model, this study finds that: (1) The atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation leads to a higher climatological sea ice drift speed despite it produces thicker ice in the Arctic marginal seas, since the elevating effect of increased wind speed yields the suppressing effect of increased ice thickness on sea ice drift speed. (2) The warming of local atmosphere results in substantial elevation of the Arctic sea ice drift speed through generating basin-scale reduction of sea ice thickness. Developing a more sophisticated sea ice dynamical equation may be an essential way to reduce the wide-existing positive bias in sea ice drift modeling.

The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales

Article

Full-text available

May 2024
TC

In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has undergone changes associated with enhanced poleward inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters and increased heat flux exchange with the atmosphere in seasonally ice-free regions. The associated changes in upper-ocean heat content can alter the exchange of energy at the ocean–ice interface. Yet, the role of ocean heat content in modulating Arctic sea ice variability at sub-seasonal timescales is still poorly documented. We analyze ocean heat transports and surface heat fluxes between 1980–2021 using two eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses, C-GLORSv5 and ORAS5, to assess the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean and its regional seas. We then assess the role of upper-ocean heat content, computed in the surface mixed layer (Qml) and in the 0–300 m layer (Q300), as a sub-seasonal precursor of sea ice variability by means of lag correlations. Our results reveal that in the Pacific Arctic regions, sea ice variability in autumn is linked with Qml anomalies leading by 1 to 3 months, and this relationship has strengthened in the Laptev and East Siberian seas during 2001–2021 relative to 1980–2000, primarily due to reduced surface heat loss since the mid-2000s. Q300 anomalies act as a precursor for wintertime sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara seas, with considerable strengthening and expansion of this link from 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 in both reanalyses. Our results highlight the role played by upper-ocean heat content in modulating the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales. Heat stored in the ocean has important implications for the predictability of sea ice, calling for improvements in forecast initialization and a focus upon regional predictions in the Arctic region.

Turbulent Diffusivity Profiles on the Shelf and Slope at the Southern Edge of the Canada Basin

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2024

Vertical profiles of temperature microstructure at 95 stations were obtained over the Beaufort shelf and shelfbreak in the southern Canada Basin during a November 2018 research cruise. Two methods for estimating the dissipation rates of temperature variance and turbulent kinetic energy were compared using this data set. Both methods require fitting a theoretical spectrum to observed temperature gradient spectra, but differ in their assumptions. The two methods agree for calculations of the dissipation rate of temperature variance, but not for that of turbulent kinetic energy. After applying a rigorous data rejection framework, estimates of turbulent diffusivity and heat flux are made across different depth ranges. The turbulent diffusivity of temperature is typically enhanced by about one order of magnitude in profiles on the shelf compared to near the shelfbreak, and similarly near the shelfbreak compared to profiles with bottom depth >1,000 m. Depth bin means are shown to vary depending on the averaging method (geometric means tend to be smaller than arithmetic means and maximum likelihood estimates). The statistical distributions of heat flux within the surface, cold halocline, and Atlantic water layer change with depth. Heat fluxes are typically <1 Wm⁻², but are greater than 50 Wm⁻² in ∼8% of the overall data. These largest fluxes are located almost exclusively within the surface layer, where temperature gradients can be large.

Drivers of Marine Heatwaves in the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2024

Among the documented consequences of anthropogenic global warming are the increased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves in the global ocean. The literature dedicated to Arctic marine heatwaves corroborates those results, but fails to identify the heat sources and sinks. Because of the numerous feedbacks impacting polar regions, understanding the processes triggering and dissipating those extreme events is particularly important to predict their occurrence in a fast changing ocean. A three‐dimensional regional ice‐ocean numerical model is used to calculate a surface mixed layer heat budget and to investigate mechanisms generating and dissipating marine heatwaves. The majority of the marine heatwaves are onset by surface heat fluxes and decayed by bottom and surface heat fluxes. The dominant processes are spatially and seasonally heterogeneous: lateral heat flux can become the primary process when advecting heat anomalies at the main Arctic gateways or by triggering temperature extremes in winter. Using a Reynolds decomposition, it can be determined that the shoaling of the surface mixed layer induced by ice melt can significantly lengthen and intensify Arctic marine heatwaves. In winter, the analysis of marine heatwaves poses unique challenges, with the long term freshening of the Arctic inducing a positive trend of 0.1°C per decade for the freezing point. Arctic marine heatwaves are expected to keep increasing in duration and intensity due to the increased trend of the primary process, the surface heat flux, and their dissipation by bottom heat flux provides a pathway for heat from the atmosphere to the Arctic subsurface water masses.

Turbulent diffusivity profiles on the shelf and slope at the southern edge of the Canada Basin

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2024

Interactions Between Internal Solitary Waves and Sea Ice

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2024

Internal Solitary Waves (ISWs) that form on internal density interfaces in the ocean are responsible for the horizontal transport and vertical mixing of heat, nutrients, and other water properties. The waves also induce fluid motion that can induce stresses and motion on floating structures, such as sea ice. This study investigates ISW‐sea ice interactions. Using laboratory experiments, ISWs generated via the lock gate technique are observed interacting with weighted floats of varying sizes. The motion of these floats can be modeled effectively, simply as the average velocity of the fluid under the float, and it is found that when floats are small relative to the wavelength, they behave in the same manner as a fluid particle, but as floats become bigger relative to the wavelength, the maximum velocity decreases, and interaction time increases. This phenomenon is explained simply by the wave‐induced flow as opposed to energy transfer arguments. By using this model with a large sample of theoretical waves, the float motion is parameterized based on the float length and wave parameters. Whilst small floats do not disrupt the flow patterns, the wave‐induced flow under larger floats forms a pair of counter‐rotating vortices at each end of the float. The formation and evolution of these flow features arise as a result of boundary layer separation with the horizontal wave‐induced flow relative to the float velocity. This reveals complex dynamics due to the non‐stationary behavior of both the float and flow.

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2023
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Plain Language Summary The Last Interglacial (LIG; 129–116 Kyr before present) represents the most recent period with Arctic summer temperatures significantly higher than during the pre‐industrial era. This warming results from higher insolation than today in the Arctic, and is associated with changes in Arctic sea ice that are potentially comparable in magnitude to those projected for the near future. Therefore, the LIG climate represents a good testing ground for investigating processes responsible for sea‐ice loss. Here, we compare the distribution of the Arctic sea‐ice concentration for solar‐forced LIG warming and CO2‐forced future warming in climate simulations. The aim is to determine whether the decline in Arctic sea ice follows a similar spatial pattern for two distinct forcings when focusing on periods with similar sea‐ice volumes. The main differences occur in winter, close to ice margins. They are related to changes in wind intensity over the Greenland and the northern Bering Seas, and differences in Atlantic Water temperatures, which regulate ice melting in the Barents Sea. In summer, sea‐ice cover in Baffin Bay experiences the greatest changes due to differences in circulation regime. As suggested by previous studies, the region north of Greenland is the most resilient to the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Basic Oceanographic Parameters and Their Significance

Chapter

Jan 2023

Oceanic water columns, their overall health, and the ongoing biogeochemical processes in these oceanic masses are integral in regulating several global phenomena and providing ecosystem services to humankind. Ever since the potential of oceanic water bodies and the significance of all the biotic life forms in this hydrosphere have been realized by the global scientific community, measuring and monitoring these water masses have become imperative.

Technical note: Determining Arctic Ocean halocline and cold halostad depths based on vertical stability

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2023
OCEAN SCI

The Arctic Ocean halocline separates the cold surface mixed layer from the underlying warm Atlantic Water (AW), and thus provides a precondition for sea ice formation. Here, we introduce a new method in which the halocline base depth is determined from vertical stability and compare it to two existing methods. We also propose a novel method for detecting the cold halostad, a layer characterized by a small vertical salinity gradient, which is formed by the Pacific Winter Water in the Canada Basin or by meltwater off the eastern coast of Greenland and off Svalbard. Our main motivation for determining the halocline base depth depending on vertical stability was that vertical stability is closely related to vertical mixing and heat exchange. Vertical stability is a crucial parameter for determining whether the halocline can prevent vertical heat exchange and protect sea ice from warm AW. When applied to measurements from ice-tethered profilers, ships, and moorings, the new method for estimating the halocline base depth provides robust results with few artifacts. Analyzing a case in which water previously homogenized by winter convection was capped by fresh water at the surface suggests that the new method captured the beginning of new halocline formation in the Eurasian Basin. Comparatively large differences between the methods for detecting the halocline base depth were found in warm AW inflow regions for which climate models predict halocline thinning and increased net surface energy fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Patterns of wintertime Arctic sea-ice leads and their relation to winds and ocean currents

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2023
TC

We use a novel sea-ice lead climatology for the winters of 2002/03 to 2020/21 based on satellite observations with 1 km2 spatial resolution to identify predominant patterns in Arctic wintertime sea-ice leads. The causes for the observed spatial and temporal variabilities are investigated using ocean surface current velocities and eddy kinetic energies from an ocean model (Finite Element Sea Ice–Ice-Shelf–Ocean Model, FESOM) and winds from a regional climate model (CCLM) and ERA5 reanalysis, respectively. The presented investigation provides evidence for an influence of ocean bathymetry and associated currents on the mechanic weakening of sea ice and the accompanying occurrence of sea-ice leads with their characteristic spatial patterns. While the driving mechanisms for this observation are not yet understood in detail, the presented results can contribute to opening new hypotheses on ocean–sea-ice interactions. The individual contribution of ocean and atmosphere to regional lead dynamics is complex, and a deeper insight requires detailed mechanistic investigations in combination with considerations of coastal geometries. While the ocean influence on lead dynamics seems to act on a rather long-term scale (seasonal to interannual), the influence of wind appears to trigger sea-ice lead dynamics on shorter timescales of weeks to months and is largely controlled by individual events causing increased divergence. No significant pan-Arctic trends in wintertime leads can be observed.

A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2023
NAT GEOSCI

The extent and seasonality of Arctic sea ice during the Last Interglacial (129,000 to 115,000 years before present) is poorly known. Sediment-based reconstructions have suggested extensive ice cover in summer, while climate model outputs indicate year-round conditions in the Arctic Ocean ranging from ice free to fully ice covered. Here we use microfossil records from across the central Arctic Ocean to show that sea-ice extent was substantially reduced and summers were probably ice free. The evidence comes from high abundances of the subpolar planktic foraminifera Turborotalita quinqueloba in five newly analysed cores. The northern occurrence of this species is incompatible with perennial sea ice, which would be associated with a thick, low-salinity surface water. Instead, T. quinqueloba’s ecological preference implies largely ice-free surface waters with seasonally elevated levels of primary productivity. In the modern ocean, this species thrives in the Fram Strait–Barents Sea ‘Arctic–Atlantic gateway’ region, implying that the necessary Atlantic Ocean-sourced water masses shoaled towards the surface during the Last Interglacial. This process reflects the ongoing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean, currently restricted to the Eurasian Basin. Our results establish the Last Interglacial as a prime analogue for studying a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean, expected to occur this century.

Upper ocean warming and sea ice reduction in the East Greenland Current from 2003 to 2019

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023

The sea ice extent and sea ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean have declined consistently in the last decades. The loss of sea ice as well as warmer inflowing Atlantic Water have major consequences for the Arctic Ocean heat content and the watermasses flowing out from the Arctic. Sustained observations from ocean moorings show that the upper ocean temperature across the Arctic outflow with the East Greenland Current in the Fram Strait has increased significantly between 2003 and 2019. Polar Water contains more heat in summer due to lower sea ice concentration and longer periods of open water upstream. Warm returning Atlantic Water has a greater presence in the central Fram Strait in winter since 2015, impacting winter sea ice thickness and extent. Combined, these processes result in a reduced sea ice cover downstream along the whole east coast of Greenland with inevitable consequences for winter-time ocean convection and ecosystem functioning.

Wind-Driven Motions of the Ocean Surface Mixed Layer in the Western Arctic

Article

Apr 2023

Observations of sea ice and the upper ocean from three moorings in the Beaufort Sea quantify atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer, with a particular focus on the inertial-frequency response. Seasonal variations in the strength of mixed layer (ML) inertial oscillations suggest that sea ice damps momentum transfer from the wind to the ocean, such that the oscillation strength is minimal under sea ice cover. In contrast, the net Ekman transport is unimpacted by the presence of sea ice. The mooring measurements are interpreted with a simplified one-dimensional ice-ocean coupled “slab” model. The model results provide insight into the drivers of the inertial seasonality: namely, that a combination of both sea ice internal stress and ocean ML depth contribute to the seasonal variability of inertial surface currents and inertial sea ice drift, while under-ice roughness does not. Furthermore, the importance of internal stress in damping inertial oscillations is different at each moorings, with a minimal influence at the southernmost mooring (within the seasonal ice zone) and more influence at the northernmost mooring. As the Arctic shifts to a more seasonal sea ice regime, changes in sea ice cover and sea ice internal strength may impact inertial-band ice-ocean coupling and allow for an increase in wind forcing to the ocean.

Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition of Norwegian Barents Sea Shelf Ecosystems

Technical Report

Full-text available

Mar 2023

Patterns of wintertime Arctic sea ice leads and their relation to winds and ocean currents

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2023

We use a novel sea-ice lead climatology based on satellite observations with 1 km2 spatial resolution to identify predominant patterns in Arctic wintertime sea-ice leads. The causes for the observed spatial and temporal variabilities are investigated using ocean surface current velocities and eddy kinetic energies from an ocean model (FESOM) and winds from a regional climate model (CCLM) and ERA5 reanalysis, respectively. The presented investigation provides clear evidence for the influence of ocean depth and associated currents on the mechanic weakening of sea ice and the accompanied occurrence of sea-ice leads with their characteristic spatial patterns. While the ocean influence on lead dynamics acts on a rather long-term scale (seasonal to inter-annual), the influence of wind appears to trigger sea-ice lead dynamics on shorter time scales of weeks to months and is largely controlled by individual events causing increased divergence.

Structure and Seasonal Variability of the Arctic Boundary Current North of Severnaya Zemlya

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

We assessed the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic Boundary Current (ABC) using seven oceanographic moorings, deployed across the continental slope north of Severnaya Zemlya in 2015–2018. Transports and individual water masses were quantified based on temperature and salinity recorders and current profilers. Our results were compared with observations from the northeast Svalbard and the central Laptev Sea continental slopes to evaluate the hydrographic transformation along the ABC pathway. The highest velocities (>0.30 m s⁻¹) of the ABC occurred at the upper continental slope and decreased offshore to below 0.03 m s⁻¹ in the deep basin. The ABC showed seasonal variability with velocities two times higher in winter than in summer. Compared to upstream conditions in Svalbard, water mass distribution changed significantly within 20 km of the shelf edge due to mixing with‐ and intrusion of shelf waters. The ABC transported 4.15 ± 0.3 Sv in the depth range 50–1,000 m, where 0.88 ± 0.1, 1.5 ± 0.2, 0.61 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.15 Sv corresponded to Atlantic Water (AW), Dense Atlantic Water (DAW), Barents Sea Branch Water (BSBW) and Transformed Atlantic Water (TAW). 62–70% of transport was constrained to within 30–40 km of the shelf edge, and beyond 84 km, transport increases were estimated to be 0.54 Sv. Seasonality of TAW derived from local shelf‐processes and advection of seasonal‐variable Fram Strait waters, while BSBW transport variability was dominated by temperature changes with maximum transport coinciding with minimum temperatures. Further Barents Sea warming will likely reduce TAW and BSBW transport leading to warmer conditions along the ABC pathway.

Elemental Composition of Particulate Matter in the Euphotic and Benthic Boundary Layers of the Barents and Norwegian Seas

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

The increasing influence of Atlantic inflows in the Arctic Ocean in recent decades has had a potential impact on regional biogeochemical cycles of major and trace elements. The warm and salty Atlantic water, entering the Eurasian Basin through the Norwegian Sea margin and the Barents Sea, affects particle transport, sink, phyto-, and zooplankton community structure and could have far-reaching consequences for the marine ecosystems. This study discusses the elemental composition of suspended particulate matter and fluffy-layer suspended matter derived from samples collected in the Barents Sea and northern Norwegian Sea in August 2017. The mosaic distribution of SPM elemental composition is mainly determined by two factors: (i) The essential spatial variability of biological processes (primary production, abundance, and phytoplankton composition) and (ii) differences in the input of terrigenous sedimentary matter to the sea area from drainage sources (weak river runoff, melting of archipelago glaciers, etc.). The distribution of lithogenic, bioessential, and redox-sensitive groups of elements in the particulate matter was studied at full-depth profiles. Marine cycling of strontium in the Barents Sea is shown to be significantly affected by increasing coccolithophorid bloom, which is associated with Atlantic water. Mn, Cu, Cd, and Ba significantly enrich the suspended particulate matter of the benthic nepheloid layer relative to the fluffy layer particulate matter within the benthic boundary layer.

Changes in Freshwater Content in the Arctic Basin, Sea Ice Cover Reduction and Warming in the Arctic

Article

Jan 2022

The paper deals with global changes in regime and climate of Arctic basin. Changes in the content and inflows of freshwater into the upper 100 m layer of the Arctic basin from decade to decade (1950s – 2010s) were determined. Data from national expedition surveys of the Arctic Basin in the 1950s to the 1970s combined with data from expe- ditions in the 1980s to the 2010s were used. The results obtained showed that freshwater content (FWC) decreased in the Eurasian and increased in the Amerasian part of the Arctic basin in the 1990s – 2000s. The decrease in the FWC occurred in the result of increased Atlantic water inflow since the 1990s and the salinization of the upper 100 m layer of Arctic Ocean, despite increased precipitation, river runoff and sea ice melt. The influence from the tropics of the North Atlantic on climatic changes in the structure of Arctic basin waters, on the reduction of the sea ice cover and warming in the Arctic with a delay of 2-3 years was established. Methods of multidimensional correlation analysis, calculation of spectra and coherences, and construction of correlation graphs were used.

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2024
SURV GEOPHYS

As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Dissolved organic matter in the Arctic Ocean

Chapter

Jan 2024

A Simple Model for Multiple Equilibria in Ice-Covered Oceans

Article

Jul 2024

Michael A. Spall

The existence of multiple equilibria (ice-covered and ice-free states) is explored using a set of coupled, nondimensional equations that describe the heat and salt balances in basins, such as the Arctic Ocean, that are subject to atmospheric forcing and two distinct water mass sources. Six nondimensional numbers describe the influences of atmospheric cooling, evaporation minus precipitation, solar radiation, atmospheric temperature, diapycnal mixing, and the temperature contrast between the two water masses. It is shown that multiple equilibria resulting from the dependence of albedo on ice cover exist over a wide range of parameter space, especially so in the weak mixing limit. Multiple equilibria can also occur if diapycnal mixing increases to O (10 ⁻⁴ ) m ² s ⁻¹ or larger under ice-free conditions due to enhanced upward mixing of warm, salty water from below. Sensitivities to various forcing parameters are discussed. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand under what circumstances high-latitude seas, such as the Arctic Ocean, can exist in either an ice-covered or an ice-free state. The temperature and salinity of the ocean, as well as the heat exchange with the atmosphere, are drastically different depending on which state the ocean is in. The theory presented here identifies how forcing from the atmosphere and ocean dynamics determines whether the ocean is ice covered, ice free, or possibly either one.

Influence of the representation of landfast ice on the simulation of the Arctic sea ice and Arctic Ocean halocline

Article

Apr 2024
OCEAN DYNAM

Landfast ice is near-motionless sea ice attached to the coast. Despite its potential for modifying sea ice and ocean properties, most state-of-the-art sea ice models poorly represent landfast ice. Here, we examine two crucial processes responsible for the formation and stabilization of landfast ice, namely sea ice tensile strength and seabed–ice keel interactions. We investigate the impact of these processes on the Arctic sea ice cover and halocline layer using the global coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO-LIM3. We show that including seabed–ice keel stress improves the seasonality and spatial distribution of the landfast ice cover in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas. This improved landfast ice representation sets the position of flaw polynyas to new locations approximately above the continental shelf break. The impact of sea ice tensile strength on the stability of the Arctic halocline layer is far more effective. Incorporating this process in the model yields a thicker, more consolidated, and less mobile Arctic sea ice pack that further decouples the ocean and atmosphere. As a result, the available potential energy of the Arctic halocline is decreased (increased) by

\sim

30kJ/m

^2

(

\sim

30kJ/m

^2

) in the Amerasian (Eurasian) compared to the reference simulation excluding sea ice tensile strength and seabed–ice keel stress. Our findings highlight the need to better understand landfast ice physical processes conjointly with the subsequent influences on the ocean and sea ice states.

The impact of sea ice melt on the evolution of surface pCO2 in a polar ocean basin

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2024

The strong CO2 sink in Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the global carbon budget. As a high-latitude oceanic ecosystem, the features of sea surface pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux are significantly influenced by sea ice melt; however, our understanding of pCO2 evolution during sea ice melt remains limited. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of pCO2 during the progression of sea ice melt in the western Arctic Ocean based on data from two cruises conducted in 2010 and 2012. Our findings reveal substantial spatiotemporal variability in surface pCO2 on the Chukchi Sea shelf and Canada Basin, with a boundary along the shelf breaks at depths of 250-500 m isobaths. On the Chukchi Sea shelf, strong biological consumption dominates pCO2 variability. Moreover, in Canada Basin, the pCO2 dynamics are modulated by various processes. During the active sea ice melt stage before sea ice concentration decreases to 15%, biological production through photosynthetic processes and dilution of ice melt water lead to a reduction in DIC concentration and subsequent decline in pCO2. Further, these effects are counteracted by the air-sea CO2 exchange at the sea surface which tends to increase seawater DIC and subsequently elevate surface pCO2. Compared to the pCO2 reduction resulting from biological production and dilution effects, the contribution of air-sea CO2 exchange is significantly lower. The combined effects of these factors have a significant impact on reducing pCO2 during this stage. Conversely, during the post sea ice melt stage, an increase in pCO2 resulting from high temperatures and air-sea CO2 exchange outweighs its decrease caused by biological production. Their combined effects result in a prevailing increase in sea surface pCO2. We argue that enhanced air-sea CO2 uptake under high wind speeds also contributes to the high sea surface pCO2 observed in 2012, during both active sea ice melt stage and post sea ice melt stage. The present study reports, for the first time, the carbonate dynamics and pCO2 controlling processes during the active sea ice melt stage. These findings have implications for accurate estimation of air-sea CO2 fluxes and improved modeling simulations within the Arctic Ocean.

Modulated Trends in Arctic Surface Air Temperature Extremes as a Fingerprint of Climate Change

Article

Jan 2024

Strengthened by polar amplification, Arctic warming provides direct evidence for global climate change. This analysis shows how Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) extremes have changed throughout time. Using ERA5, we demonstrate a pan-Arctic (>60°N) significant upward SAT trend of +0.62°C decade ⁻¹ since 1979. Due to this warming, the warmest days of each month in the 1980s to 1990s would be considered average today, while the present coldest days would be regarded as normal in the 1980s to 1990s. Over 1979–2021, there was a 2°C (or 7%) reduction of pan-Arctic SAT seasonal cycle, which resulted in warming of the cold SAT extremes by a factor of 2 relative to the SAT trend and dampened trends of the warm SAT extremes by roughly 25%. Since 1979, autumn has seen the strongest increasing trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as counts of days with SAT above the 90th percentile and decreasing trends in counts of days with SAT below the 10th percentile, consistent with rapid Arctic sea ice decline and enhanced air–ocean heat fluxes. The modulated SAT seasonal signal has a significant impact on the timing of extremely strong monthly cold and warm spells. The dampening of the SAT seasonal fluctuations is likely to continue to increase as more sea ice melts and upper-ocean warming persists. As a result, the Arctic winter cold SAT extremes may continue to exhibit a faster rate of change than that of the summer warm SAT extremes as the Arctic continues to warm. Significance Statement As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice is receding, exposing more and more areas to air–sea interactions. This reduces the range of seasonal changes in Arctic surface air temperatures (SAT). Since 1979, the reduced seasonal SAT signal has decreased the trend of warm SAT extremes by 25% over the background warming trend and doubled the trend of cold SAT extremes relative to SAT trends. A substantial number of warm and cold spells would not have been identified as exceptional if the reduction of the Arctic SAT seasonal amplitudes had not been taken into account. As the Arctic continues to warm and sea ice continues to diminish, seasonal SAT fluctuations will become more dampened, with the rate of decreasing winter SAT extremes exceeding the rate of increasing summer SAT extremes.

Radium Isotopes as Tracers of Shelf‐Basin Exchange Processes in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2023

Radium isotopes, which are sourced from sediments, are useful tools for studying potential climate‐driven changes in the transfer of shelf‐derived elements to the open Arctic Ocean. Here we present observations of radium‐228 and radium‐226 from the Siberian Arctic, focusing on the shelf‐basin boundary north of the Laptev and East Siberian Seas. Water isotopes and nutrients are used to deconvolve the contributions from different water masses in the study region, and modeled currents and water parcel back‐trajectories provide insights on water pathways and residence times. High radium levels and fractions of meteoric water, along with modeled water parcel back‐trajectories, indicate that shelf‐ and river‐influenced water left the East Siberian Shelf around 170°E in 2021; this is likely where the Transpolar Drift was entering the central Arctic. A transect extending from the East Siberian Slope into the basin is used to estimate a radium‐228 flux of 2.67 × 10⁷ atoms m⁻² d⁻¹ (possible range of 1.23 × 10⁷–1.04 × 10⁸ atoms m⁻² d⁻¹) from slope sediments, which is comparable to slope fluxes in other regions of the world. A box model is used to determine that the flux of radium‐228 from the Laptev and East Siberian Shelves is 9.03 × 10⁷ atoms m⁻² d⁻¹ (possible range of 3.87 × 10⁷–1.56 × 10⁸ atoms m⁻² d⁻¹), similar to previously estimated fluxes from the Chukchi Shelf. These three shelves contribute a disproportionately high amount of radium to the Arctic, highlighting their importance in regulating the chemistry of Arctic surface waters.

Fluctuating Atlantic inflows modulate Arctic atlantification

Article

Aug 2023
SCIENCE

Enhanced warm, salty subarctic inflows drive high-latitude atlantification, which weakens oceanic stratification, amplifies heat fluxes, and reduces sea ice. In this work, we show that the atmospheric Arctic Dipole (AD) associated with anticyclonic winds over North America and cyclonic winds over Eurasia modulates inflows from the North Atlantic across the Nordic Seas. The alternating AD phases create a "switchgear mechanism." From 2007 to 2021, this switchgear mechanism weakened northward inflows and enhanced sea-ice export across Fram Strait and increased inflows throughout the Barents Sea. By favoring stronger Arctic Ocean circulation, transferring freshwater into the Amerasian Basin, boosting stratification, and lowering oceanic heat fluxes there after 2007, AD+ contributed to slowing sea-ice loss. A transition to an AD- phase may accelerate the Arctic sea-ice decline, which would further change the Arctic climate system.

Consistent picture of the horizontal circulation of the Atlantic Ocean over 3 decades

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023
OCEAN SCI

The circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is marked by the complex system of pathways of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These currents change meridionally due to the interaction with nearby water masses. Hydrographic data provide the opportunity to characterize these currents for the whole water column with high-resolution data over the last 30 years. Moreover, inverse methods enable the quantification of absolute zonal transports across these sections, determining the strength of each current at a certain latitude in terms of mass, heat, and freshwater, as well as their transport-weighted temperature and salinity. Generally, no changes can be found among decades for each of the currents in terms of transport or their properties. In the South Atlantic, the circulation describes the subtropical gyre affected by several recirculations. There are nearly 61 Sv entering from the Southern and Indian oceans at 45∘ S. The South Atlantic subtropical gyre exports 17.0 ± 1.2 Sv and around 1 PW northward via the North Brazil Current, as well as -55 Sv southward at 45∘ S into the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In the North Atlantic, most of the transport is advected northward via the western boundary currents, which reduce their strength as they take part in convection processes in the subpolar North Atlantic, also reflected in the northward progress of mass and heat transport. Deep layers carry waters southward along the western boundary, maintaining similar values of mass and heat transport until the separation into an eastern branch crossing the mid-Atlantic Ridge in the South Atlantic. Abyssal waters originating in the Southern Ocean are distributed along the South Atlantic mainly through its western subbasin, flowing northward up to 24.5∘ N, subjected to an increasing trend in their temperature with time.

Arctic ice-ocean interactions in an 8-to-2 kilometer resolution global model

Article

May 2023
OCEAN MODEL

The commonly overlooked environmental tipping points

Article

Apr 2023

Climate models are developed based on well-established physical principles applied to past and recent climate changes. There is considerable confidence that the models can also provide estimates of some climate variables (i.e., surface temperature, CO2 levels, ocean heat content). Despite advanced mathematical developments in the field of climate modeling, the existing climate models suffer from the following major limitations: first, the models do not consider that their estimations will be highly unreliable when a tipping point is triggered; secondly, many of the environmental tipping points are already triggered, however their existence is overlooked; and third, the existing climate models do not consider the interrelations among the tipping points (i.e., one tipping point can trigger other tipping points to be tipped more rapidly). Our objective is to describe the importance of environmental “tipping points,” the importance of which is often ignored or downplayed in relevant literature. Our analysis, based on extensive multidisciplinary literature searches, reveals that there are many environmental tipping points which are overlooked in climate-modeling studies. We argue that climate modeling could be improved when the tipping points and their interrelations are all considered within the modeling process. We further discuss two other important issues regarding environmental tipping points: first, all tipping points might not be as impactful on the climate system, therefore their relative impacts should be ranked; second, it is in principle impossible to know the exact number of environmental tipping points, therefore even though it could be possible to devise improvements to the existing climate models with our suggestions, it may be impossible to achieve a perfect model to estimate the climate variables of the upcoming years. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: In the background section, we introduce research on tipping points within commonly used climate models. We explain the aerosol masking effect and ocean dynamics with respect to their commonly overlooked roles as important contributors to environmental change. We introduce remote sensing and AI methods that serve as promising approaches for identification of currently unknown tipping points. We mention perturbation theory, a standard set of mathematical methods in physics that serves as a potentially systematic method to rank environmental tipping points according to their impact on extant climate models. In the discussion section, we make suggestions regarding further research on identifying the typically overlooked tipping points, and we make suggestions to improve climate models by considering additional information presented in the current paper. Finally, we conclude this article summarizing our chief methodological recommendations.

Climate tipping points: A personal view

Article

Mar 2023

Michael Edgeworth McIntyre

The worst uncertainties about climate change are outside the scope of climate models but can be thought about in other ways—especially by learning from past climates.

Technical note: Determining Arctic Ocean cold halocline and cold halostad layer depths based on vertical stability

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2023

The Arctic Ocean cold halocline layer (CHL) separates the cold surface mixed layer (SML) from the underlying warm Atlantic water, and thus provides a precondition for sea ice formation. Here, we introduce a new method in which the CHL base depth is diagnosed from vertical stability and compare it to two existing methods. Vertical stability directly affects vertical mixing and heat exchange. When applied to measurements from ice-tethered profilers, ships, and moorings, the new method for estimating the CHL base depth provides robust results with few artifacts. Comparatively large differences between our new method and two existing methods for detecting the CHL base depth were found in regions which are most prone to a CHL retreat in a warming climate. CHL base depth exhibits a seasonal cycle with a maximum depth in winter and also spring, when the SML depth is also at its maximum, but the amplitude of the CHL base depth's seasonal cycle is lower than for the SML for all three methods as expected. We also propose a novel method for detecting the cold halostad layer and study the seasonal cycle employing conservative assumptions to avoid a misclassification (including a lower bound of 50 m for the thickness). Detection of a cold halostad layer was largely confined to the Canada Basin and to the regions off the eastern coast of Greenland and also Svalbard.

A Possible Hysteresis in the Arctic Ocean due to Release of Subsurface Heat During Sea Ice Retreat

Article

Feb 2023

The Arctic Ocean is characterized by an ice-covered layer of cold and relatively fresh water above layers of warmer and saltier water. It is estimated that enough heat is stored in these deeper layers to melt all the Arctic sea ice many times over, but they are isolated from the surface by a stable halocline. Current vertical mixing rates across the Arctic Ocean halocline are small, due in part to sea ice reducing wind-ocean momentum transfer and damping internal waves. However, recent observational studies have argued that sea ice retreat results in enhanced mixing. This could create a positive feedback whereby increased vertical mixing due to sea ice retreat causes the previously isolated subsurface heat to melt more sea ice. Here, we use an idealized climate model to investigate the impacts of such a feedback. We find that an abrupt “tipping point” can occur under global warming, with an associated hysteresis window bounded by saddle-node bifurcations. We show that the presence and magnitude of the hysteresis are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and the hysteresis occurs for only a limited range of parameters. During the critical transition at the bifurcation point, we find that only a small percentage of the heat stored in the deep layer is released, although this is still enough to lead to substantial sea ice melt. Furthermore, no clear relationship is apparent between this change in heat storage and the level of hysteresis when the parameters are varied.

Réponse à l'echelle génomique des communautés planctoniques au réchauffement climatique et conséquences sur leur biogéographie

Thesis

Full-text available

Nov 2022

Paul Frémont

Le plancton marin est constitué d'organismes microscopiques allant des virus jusqu'aux petit métazoaires en passant par les bactéries et les protistes. Il est transporté passivement par les courants, prospère sur l'ensemble des océans et a plusieurs rôles cruciaux au sein du système Terre. Le phytoplancton permet par la photosynthèse la production primaire de matière organique dans les océans soutenant l'ensemble des réseaux trophiques océaniques. Le plancton participe aussi à la pompe à carbone biologique, mécanisme par lequel la matière organique sédimente vers les fonds marins et y est stockée. Il est aujourd'hui primordial d'évaluer et projeter la réponse du plancton au changement climatique provoqué par la combustion des énergies fossiles. Dans cette thèse, j'étudie cette question sous le prisme de la biogéographie, discipline s'intéressant à la distribution des organismes dans et en interaction avec leur milieu à travers le temps et l'espace. Dans une première partie, j'étudie à l'aide des données omiques des expéditions Tara Océans et des modèles climatiques la distribution du plancton dans les océans et sa réponse au changement climatique. Il est mis en évidence un partitionnement des océans en provinces génomiques dépendant de la taille des organismes. Ces provinces sont mises en relation avec les paramètres physico-chimiques à l'aide de techniques de machine learning et extrapolées à l'ensemble des océans. Un ensemble de « génomes signatures » pour chaque province est aussi mis en évidence. Une importante réorganisation des provinces en réponses au changement climatique est projetée sur environ 50% des océans d'ici la fin du siècle. D'importants changements en composition du plancton sont projetés et mis en lien avec une diminution de 4% de la pompe à carbone biologique ce qui aurait un effet aggravant sur le changement climatique. Dans une seconde partie, j'étudie les changements de l'expression des gènes du plancton eucaryote le long de la transition entre l'océan Atlantique Nord et le bassin Arctique. Parmi les variables physiques, la température est la variable expliquant le mieux les changements transcriptionnels. L'analyse fonctionnelle des gènes corrélant avec le gradient fort de température révèle une stratégie commune d'acclimatation des algues eucaryotes. Cette stratégie inclut d'importants changements dans la machinerie d'expression génétique mais aussi la surexpression d'un ensemble de fonctions liées à l'acclimatation au froid. A l'échelle des communautés, des processus liés à la maintenance du pool protéique et de la machinerie transcriptionnelle semblent plus actifs dans l'arctique. Dans une troisième partie, je développe un modèle mécanistique basé individu de communauté de phytoplancton structurée par la taille et advectée dans un champ de vitesse imitant la circulation océanique Nord Atlantique. Le modèle représente les principaux groupes de phytoplancton: les cyanobactéries, les algues eucaryotes et les diatomées. Les caractéristiques écologiques de bases résultant de simulations sont présentées : α-diversité, biogéographie et biomasse. Une attention est apportée à l'importance du nombre de particules modélisées et son impact sur la diversité maximale représentée ainsi que l'influence des courants sur les niches écologiques des organismes modélisés. Cette thèse aborde des sujets et enjeux fondamentaux de l'écologie contemporaine et son apport s'inscrit dans la révolution omique du début du XXIème siècle. Une biogéographie génomique du plancton est proposée et sa réponse au réchauffement climatique est explorée. L'analyse omique in situ de la physiologie des algues unicellulaires du plancton à l'échelle de la communauté permet de mettre en évidence leurs capacités d'acclimatation directement dans leur milieu de vie. Enfin, le modèle basé individu du phytoplancton permet d'explorer théoriquement de nombreuses questions écologiques à mettre en lien dans le futur avec l'analyse des données omiques.

Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.

The Deep Arctic Ocean and Fram Strait in CMIP6 Models

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

Arctic sea ice loss has become a symbol of ongoing climate change, yet climate models still struggle to reproduce it accurately, let alone predict it. A reason for this is the increasingly clear role of the ocean, especially that of the “Atlantic layer,” on sea ice processes. We here quantify biases in that Atlantic layer and the Arctic Ocean deeper layers in 14 representative models that participated in phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Compared to observational climatologies and hydrographic profiles, the modeled Atlantic layer core is on average too cold by −0.4°C and too deep by 400 m in the Nansen Basin. The Atlantic layer is too thick, extending to the seafloor in some models. Deep and bottom waters are in contrast too warm by 1.1° and 1.2°C. Furthermore, the modeled properties hardly change throughout the Arctic. We attribute these biases to an inaccurate representation of shelf processes: only three models seem to produce dense water overflows, at too few locations, and these do not sink deep enough. No model compensates with open ocean deep convection. Therefore, the properties are set by the inaccurate volume fluxes through Fram Strait, biased low by up to 6 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10 ⁶ m ³ s ⁻¹ ), but coupled to a too-warm Fram Strait, resulting in a somewhat accurate heat inflow. These fluxes are related to biases in the Nordic seas, themselves previously attributed to inaccurate sea ice extent and atmospheric modes of variability, thus highlighting the need for overall improvements in the different model components and their coupling. Significance Statement Coupled climate models are routinely used for climate change projection and adaptation, but they are only as good as the data used to create them. And in the deep Arctic, those data are scarce. We determine how biased 14 of the most recent models are regarding the deep Arctic Ocean and the Arctic’s only deep gateway, Fram Strait (between Greenland and Svalbard). These models are very biased: too cold where they should be warm, too warm where they should be cold, not stratified enough, not in contact with the surface as they should, moving the wrong way around the Arctic, etc. Some problems are induced by biases in regions outside of the Arctic and/or from the sea ice models.

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

Article

Dec 2022
EARTH-SCI REV

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily digital lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise, potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Borealization of the Arctic Ocean in Response to Anomalous Advection From Sub-Arctic Seas

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2020

An important yet still not well documented aspect of recent changes in the Arctic Ocean is associated with the advection of anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters and biota into the polar basins, a process which we refer to as borealization. Using a 37-year archive of observations (1981–2017) we demonstrate dramatically contrasting regional responses to atlantification (that part of borealization related to progression of anomalies from the Atlantic sector of sub-Arctic seas into the Arctic Ocean) and pacification (the counterpart of atlantification associated with influx of anomalous Pacific waters). Particularly, we show strong salinification of the upper Eurasian Basin since 2000, with attendant reductions in stratification, and potentially altered nutrient fluxes and primary production. These changes are closely related to upstream conditions. In contrast, pacification is strongly manifested in the Amerasian Basin by the anomalous influx of Pacific waters, creating conditions favorable for increased heat and freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre halocline and expansion of Pacific species into the Arctic interior. Here, changes in the upper (overlying) layers are driven by local Arctic atmospheric processes resulting in stronger wind/ice/ocean coupling, increased convergence within the Beaufort Gyre, a thickening of the fresh surface layer, and a deepening of the nutricline and deep chlorophyll maximum. Thus, a divergent (Eurasian Basin) gyre responds altogether differently than does a convergent (Amerasian Basin) gyre to climate forcing. Available geochemical data indicate a general decrease in nutrient concentrations Arctic-wide, except in the northern portions of the Makarov and Amundsen Basins and northern Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin. Thus, changes in the circulation pathways of specific water masses, as well as the utilization of nutrients in upstream regions, may control the availability of nutrients in the Arctic Ocean. Model-based evaluation of the trajectory of the Arctic climate system into the future suggests that Arctic borealization will continue under scenarios of global warming. Results from this synthesis further our understanding of the Arctic Ocean’s complex and sometimes non-intuitive Arctic response to climate forcing by identifying new feedbacks in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system in which borealization plays a key role.

Laboratory Experiments on Internal Solitary Waves in Ice‐Covered Waters

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2019
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Internal solitary waves (ISWs) propagating in a stably stratified two‐layer fluid in which the upper boundary condition changes from open water to ice are studied for grease, level, and nilas ice. The ISW‐induced current at the surface is capable of transporting the ice in the horizontal direction. In the level ice case, the transport speed of, relatively long ice floes, nondimensionalized by the wave speed is linearly dependent on the length of the ice floe nondimensionalized by the wave length. Measures of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation under the ice are comparable to those at the wave density interface. Moreover, in cases where the ice floe protrudes into the pycnocline, interaction with the ice edge can cause the ISW to break or even be destroyed by the process. The results suggest that interaction between ISWs and sea ice may be an important mechanism for dissipation of ISW energy in the Arctic Ocean.

Winter storms accelerate the demise of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2019

A large retreat of sea-ice in the ‘stormy’ Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean has become evident through a series of record minima for the winter maximum sea-ice extent since 2015. Results from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, a five-month-long (Jan-Jun) drifting ice station in first and second year pack-ice north of Svalbard, showcase how sea-ice in this region is frequently affected by passing winter storms. Here we synthesise the interdisciplinary N-ICE2015 dataset, including independent observations of the atmosphere, snow, sea-ice, ocean, and ecosystem. We build upon recent results and illustrate the different mechanisms through which winter storms impact the coupled Arctic sea-ice system. These short-lived and episodic synoptic-scale events transport pulses of heat and moisture into the Arctic, which temporarily reduce radiative cooling and henceforth ice growth. Cumulative snowfall from each sequential storm deepens the snow pack and insulates the sea-ice, further inhibiting ice growth throughout the remaining winter season. Strong winds fracture the ice cover, enhance ocean-ice-atmosphere heat fluxes, and make the ice more susceptible to lateral melt. In conclusion, the legacy of Arctic winter storms for sea-ice and the ice-associated ecosystem in the Atlantic Sector lasts far beyond their short lifespan.

Non-Stationary Relationship between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2019
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Plain Language Summary European winter weather is heavily influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The so‐called positive NAO brings mild and wet conditions to northern Europe in winter, and the negative NAO tends to be cold and dry. Scientists attempt to forecast the NAO in advance by one of two ways: using complex weather forecast models or using relatively simple statistical equations. Although statistical methods can outperform more complicated forecast models, they assume that predictor relationships do not change over time. This assumption is not always valid. In this study we examined the relationship over time between autumn sea ice in the Barents‐Kara Seas and the winter NAO. In recent decades, a strong relationship has been observed whereby especially reduced autumn sea ice often precedes negative NAO in the following winter. When we looked further back in time, however, we found that the ice‐NAO relationship has been highly changeable and sometimes, the complete opposite to that seen recently. An analysis of hundreds of simulations from multiple climate models confirms that the ice‐NAO relationship varies a lot, just due to natural climate variability. Our results suggest it is unwise to make predictions of the winter NAO based on autumn sea ice.

Heat, salt, and volume transports in the eastern Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean from 2 years of mooring observations

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2018
OCEAN SCI

This study discusses along-slope volume, heat, and salt transports derived from observations collected in 2013–2015 using a cross-slope array of six moorings ranging from 250 to 3900 m in the eastern Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean. These observations demonstrate that in the upper 780 m layer, the along-slope boundary current advected, on average, 5.1±0.1 Sv of water, predominantly in the eastward (shallow-to-right) direction. Monthly net volume transports across the Laptev Sea slope vary widely, from ∼0.3±0.8 in April 2014 to ∼9.9±0.8 Sv in June 2014; 3.1±0.1 Sv (or 60 %) of the net transport was associated with warm and salty intermediate-depth Atlantic Water (AW). Calculated heat transport for 2013–2015 (relative to -1.8 ∘C) was 46.0±1.7 TW, and net salt transport (relative to zero salinity) was 172±6 Mkg s-1. Estimates for AW heat and salt transports were 32.7±1.3 TW (71 % of net heat transport) and 112±4 Mkg s-1 (65 % of net salt transport). The variability of currents explains ∼90 % of the variability in the heat and salt transports. The remaining ∼10 % is controlled by temperature and salinity anomalies together with the temporal variability of the AW layer thickness. The annual mean volume transports decreased by 25 % from 5.8±0.2 Sv in 2013–2014 to 4.4±0.2 Sv in 2014–2015, suggesting that changes in the transports at interannual and longer timescales in the eastern EB may be significant.

Structure and dynamics of mesoscale eddies over the Laptev Sea continental slope in the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2018
OCEAN SCI

Heat fluxes steered by mesoscale eddies may be a significant, but still not quantified, source of heat to the surface mixed layer and sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, as well as a source of nutrients for enhancing seasonal productivity in the near-surface layers. Here we use 4 years (2007–2011) of velocity and hydrography records from a moored profiler over the Laptev Sea slope and 15 months (2008–2009) of acoustic Doppler current profiler data from a nearby mooring to investigate the structure and dynamics of eddies at the continental margin of the eastern Eurasian Basin. Typical eddy scales are radii of the order of 10 km, heights of 600 m, and maximum velocities of ∼0.1 m s-1. Eddies are approximately equally divided between cyclonic and anticyclonic polarizations, contrary to prior observations from the deep basins and along the Lomonosov Ridge. Eddies are present in the mooring records about 20 %–25 % of the time, taking about 1 week to pass through the mooring at an average frequency of about one eddy per month. We found that the eddies observed are formed in two distinct regions – near Fram Strait, where the western branch of Atlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic Ocean, and near Severnaya Zemlya, where the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches of the AW inflow merge. These eddies, embedded in the Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current, carry anomalous water properties along the eastern Arctic continental slope. The enhanced diapycnal mixing that we found within EB eddies suggests a potentially important role for eddies in the vertical redistribution of heat in the Arctic Ocean interior.

Stability of the arctic halocline: A new indicator of arctic climate change

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2018
ENVIRON RES LETT

In this study, we propose a new Arctic climate change indicator based on the strength of the Arctic halocline, a porous barrier between the cold and fresh upper ocean and ice and the warm intermediate Atlantic Water of the Arctic Ocean. This indicator provides a measure of the vulnerability of sea ice to upward heat fluxes from the ocean interior, as well as the efficiency of mixing affecting carbon and nutrient exchanges. It utilizes the well-accepted calculation of available potential energy (APE), which integrates anomalies of potential density from the surface downwards through the surface mixed layer to the base of the halocline. Regional APE contrasts are striking and show a strengthening of stratification in the Amerasian Basin (AB) and an overall weakening in the Eurasian Basin (EB). In contrast, Arctic-wide time series of APE is not reflective of these inter-basin contrasts. The use of two time series of APE - AB and EB - as an indicator of Arctic Ocean climate change provides a powerful tool for detecting and monitoring transition of the Arctic Ocean towards a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. This new, straightforward climate indicator can be used to inform both the scientific community and the broader public about changes occurring in the Arctic Ocean interior and their potential impacts on the state of the ice cover, the productivity of marine ecosystems and mid-latitude weather.

Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: Losses and coupled variability (1958-2018)

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2018
ENVIRON RES LETT

Ronald Kwok

Large-scale changes in Arctic sea ice thickness, volume and multiyear sea ice (MYI) coverage with available measurements from submarine sonars, satellite altimeters (ICESat and CryoSat-2), and satellite scatterometers are summarized. The submarine record spans the period between 1958 and 2000, the satellite altimeter records between 2003 and 2018, and the scatterometer records between 1999 and 2017. Regional changes in ice thickness (since 1958) and within the data release area of the Arctic Ocean, previously reported by Kwok and Rothrock (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L15501), have been updated to include the 8 years of CryoSat-2 (CS-2) retrievals. Between the pre-1990 submarine period (1958-1976) and the CS-2 period (2011-2018) the average thickness near the end of the melt season, in six regions, decreased by 2.0 m or some 66% over six decades. Within the data release area (∼38% of the Arctic Ocean) of submarine ice draft, the thinning of ∼1.75 m in winter since 1980 (maximum thickness of 3.64 m in the regression analysis) has not changed significantly; the mean thickness over the CS-2 period is ∼2 m. The 15 year satellite record depicts losses in sea ice volume at 2870 km 3 /decade and 5130 km 3 /decade in winter (February-March) and fall (October-November), respectively: more moderate trends compared to the sharp decreases over the ICESat period, where the losses were weighted by record-setting melt in 2007. Over the scatterometer record (1999-2017), the Arctic has lost more than 2×10 6 km 2 of MYI-a decrease of more than 50%; MYI now covers less than one-third of the Arctic Ocean. Independent MYI coverage and volume records co-vary in time, the MYI area anomalies explain ∼85% of the variance in the anomalies in Arctic sea ice volume. If losses of MYI continue, Arctic thickness/volume will be controlled by seasonal ice, suggesting that the thickness/volume trends will be more moderate (as seen here) but more sensitive to climate forcing.

Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2018
ENVIRON RES LETT

The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO₂ emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m² throughout winter to more than 3 m² throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO₂ emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO₂ emissions.

Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice losses at the basin margins

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2018

Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming. Heat absorption at the basin margins and its subsequent accumulation in the ocean interior, therefore, have consequences for Beaufort Gyre sea ice beyond the summer season.

Observed Atlantification of the Barents Sea Causes the Polar Front to Limit the Expansion of Winter Sea Ice

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2018

Barents Sea Water (BSW) is formed from Atlantic Water that is cooled through atmospheric heat loss and freshened through seasonal sea ice melt. In the eastern Barents Sea, the BSW and fresher, colder Arctic Water meet at the surface along the Polar Front (PF). Despite its importance in setting the northern limit of BSW ventilation, the PF has been poorly documented, mostly eluding detection by observational surveys that avoid seasonal sea ice. In this study, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) observations are used in addition to a temperature and salinity climatology to examine the location and structure of the PF and characterize its variability over the period 1985-2016. It is shown that the PF is independent of the position of the sea ice edge and is a shelf slope current constrained by potential vorticity. The main driver of interannual variability in SST is the variability of the Atlantic Water temperature, which has significantly increased since 2005. The SST gradient associated with the PF has also increased after 2005, preventing sea ice from extending south of the front during winter in recent years. The disappearance of fresh, seasonal sea ice melt south of the PF has led to a significant increase in BSW salinity and density. As BSW forms the majority of Arctic Intermediate Water, changes to BSW properties may have far-reaching impacts for Arctic Ocean circulation and climate.

Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2018
Nat. Clim. Change.

The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades, with greatest temperature increases observed in the northern Barents Sea. The warming signatures are not constrained to the atmosphere, but extend throughout the water column. Here, using a compilation of hydrographic observations from 1970 to 2016, we investigate the link between changing sea-ice import and this Arctic warming hotspot. A sharp increase in ocean temperature and salinity is apparent from the mid-2000s, which we show can be linked to a recent decline in sea-ice import and a corresponding loss in freshwater, leading to weakened ocean stratification, enhanced vertical mixing and increased upward fluxes of heat and salt that prevent sea-ice formation and increase ocean heat content. Thus, the northern Barents Sea may soon complete the transition from a cold and stratified Arctic to a warm and well-mixed Atlantic-dominated climate regime. Such a shift would have unknown consequences for the Barents Sea ecosystem, including ice-associated marine mammals and commercial fish stocks.

Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2018

The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s.

Structure and variability of the boundary current in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2015
DEEP-SEA RES PT I

The Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current (ACBC) transports a vast amount of mass and heat around cyclonic gyres of the deep basins, acting as a narrow, topographically-controlled flow, confined to the continental margins. Current observations during 2002–2011 at seven moorings along the major Atlantic Water (AW) pathway, complemented by an extensive collection of measured temperatures and salinities as well as results of state-of-the-art numerical modeling, have been used to examine the spatial structure and temporal variability of the ACBC within the Eurasian Basin (EB). These observations and modeling results suggest a gradual, six-fold decrease of boundary current speed (from 24 to 4 cm/s) on the route between Fram Strait and the Lomonosov Ridge, accompanied by a transformation of the vertical flow structure from mainly barotropic in Fram Strait to baroclinic between the area north of Spitsbergen and the central Laptev Sea continental slope. The relative role of density-driven currents in maintaining AW circulation increases with the progression of the ACBC eastward from Fram Strait, so that baroclinic ACBC forcing dominates over the barotropic in the eastern EB. Mooring records have revealed that waters within the AW and the cold halocline layers circulate in roughly the same direction in the eastern EB. The seasonal signal, meanwhile, is the most powerful mode of variability in the EB, contributing up to ∼70% of the total variability in currents (resolved by moorings records) within the eastern EB. Seasonal signal amplitudes for current speed and AW temperature both decrease with the eastward progression of AW flow from source regions, and demonstrate strong interannual modulation. In the 2000s, the state of the EB (e.g., circulation pattern, thermohaline conditions, and freshwater balance) experienced remarkable changes. Results showing anomalous circulation patterns for an extended period of 30 months in 2008–10 for the eastern EB, and a two-core AW temperature structure that emerged in this region of the Arctic Ocean in the most recent decade, suggest a shift of the EB toward a new, more dynamic state. This also likely suggests that the EB interior will become more susceptible to future climate change. Evaluating properties of the ACBC, its temporal variability at time scales from a season to several years, and possible governing mechanisms, this study contributes to a better understanding of Arctic Ocean circulation.

Tide-mediated warming of Arctic halocline by Atlantic heat fluxes over rough topography

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2015

The largest oceanic heat input to the Arctic Ocean results from inflowing Atlantic water. This inflowing water is warmer than it has been in the past 2,000 years. Yet the fate of this heat remains uncertain, partly because the water is relatively saline, and thus dense: it therefore enters the Arctic Ocean at intermediate depths and is separated from surface waters by stratification. Vertical mixing is generally weak within the Arctic Ocean basins, with very modest heat fluxes (0.05–0.3 W m−2) arising largely from double diffusion. However, geographically limited observations have indicated substantially enhanced turbulent mixing rates over rough topography. Here we present pan-Arctic microstructure measurements of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation. Our measurements further demonstrate that the enhanced continental slope dissipation rate, and by implication vertical mixing, varies significantly with both topographic steepness and longitude. Furthermore, our observations show that dissipation is insensitive to sea-ice conditions. We identify tides as the main energy source that supports the enhanced dissipation, which generates vertical heat fluxes of more than 50 W m−2. We suggest that the increased transfer of momentum from the atmosphere to the ocean as Arctic sea ice declines is likely to lead to an expansion of mixing hotspots in the future Arctic Ocean.

Toward Quantifying the Increasing Role of Oceanic Heat in Sea Ice Loss in the New Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2015

The loss of Arctic sea ice has emerged as a leading signal of global warming. This, together with acknowledged impacts on other components of the Earth system, has led to the term “The New Arctic”. Global coupled climate models predict that ice loss will continue through the twenty-first century, with implications for governance, economics, security and global weather. A wide range in model projections reflects the complex, highly coupled interactions between the polar atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, including teleconnections to lower latitudes. This paper summarizes our present understanding of how heat reaches the ice base from the original sources – inflows of Atlantic and Pacific Water, river discharge, and summer sensible heat and shortwave radiative fluxes at the ocean/ice surface – and speculates on how such processes may change in the New Arctic. The complexity of the coupled Arctic system, and the logistic and technological challenges of working in the Arctic Ocean, requires a coordinated interdisciplinary and international program that will not only improve understanding of this critical component of global climate but will also provide opportunities to develop human resources with the skills required to tackle related problems in complex climate systems. We propose a research strategy with components that include: 1) improved mapping of the upper and mid-depth Arctic Ocean, 2) enhanced quantification of important process, 3) expanded long-term monitoring at key heat-flux locations, and 4) development of numerical capabilities that focus on parameterization of heat flux mechanisms and their interactions.

Observations of a diapycnal shortcut to adiabatic upwelling of Antarctic Circumpolar Deep Water

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2014

In the Southern Ocean, small-scale turbulence causes diapycnal mixing which influences important water mass transformations, in turn impacting large-scale ocean transports such as the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), a key controller of Earth'sclimate. We present direct observations of mixing over the Antarctic continental slope between water masses that are part of the Southern Ocean MOC. A 12-hour time-series of microstructure turbulence measurements, hydrography and velocity observations off Elephant Island, north of the Antarctic Peninsula, reveals two concurrent bursts of elevated dissipation of O(10–6Wkg–1, resulting in heat fluxes ~10 times higher than basin-integrated Drake Passage estimates. This occurs across the boundary between adjacent adiabatic upwelling and downwelling overturning cells. Ray tracing and topography show mixing between 300-400 m consistent with the breaking of locally-generated internal tidal waves. Since similar conditions extend to much of the Antarctic continental slope where these water masses outcrop, their transformation may contribute significantly to upwelling.

At the rainbow's end: High productivity fueled by winter upwelling along an Arctic shelf

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2015
POLAR BIOL

Herein we document findings from a unique scientific expedition north of Svalbard in the middle of the polar night in January 2012, where we observed an ice edge north of 82°N coupled with pronounced upwelling. The area north of Svalbard has probably been ice-covered during winter in the period from approximately 1790 until the 1980s, a period during which heavy ice conditions have prevailed in the Barents Sea and Svalbard waters. However, recent winters have been characterized by midwinter open water conditions on the shelf, concomitant with northeasterly along-shelf winds in January 2012. The resulting northward Ekman transport resulted in a strong upwelling of Atlantic Water along the shelf. We suggest that a reduction in sea ice and the upwelling of nutrient-rich waters seen in the winter of 2012 created conditions similar to those that occurred during the peak of the European whaling period (1690–1790) and that this combination of physical features was in fact the driving force behind the high primary and secondary production of diatoms and Calanus spp., which sustained the large historical stocks of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in Arctic waters near Spitsbergen.

One More Step Toward a Warmer Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2005

This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring-based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian% Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub-polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse-like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher-latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took 1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional approx. 4.5-5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.

Winter Convection Transports Atlantic Water Heat to the Surface Layer in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2013

A one year (2009–2010) record of temperature and salinity profiles from Ice Tethered Profiler (ITP) buoys in the Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean is used to quantify the flux of heat from the upper pycnocline to the surface mixed layer. The upper pycnocline in the central EB is fed by the upward flux of heat from the intermediate depth (~150-900 m) Atlantic Water (AW) layer; this flux is estimated to be ~1 W/m2 averaged over one year. Release of heat from the upper pycnocline, through the cold halocline layer to the surface mixed layer is, however, seasonally intensified, occurring more strongly in winter. This seasonal heat loss averages ~3-4 W/m2 between January and April, reducing the rate of new winter sea-ice formation. We hypothesize that the winter heat loss is driven by mixing caused by a combination of brine-driven convection associated with sea-ice formation and larger vertical velocity shear below the base of the surface mixed layer (SML), enhanced by atmospheric storms and the seasonal reduction in density difference between the SML and underlying pycnocline.

Vertical mixing at intermediate depths in the Arctic boundary current

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2009

Microstructure and hydrographic observations, during September 2007 in the boundary current on the East Siberian continental slope, document upper ocean stratification and along-stream water mass changes. A thin warm surface layer overrides a shallow halocline characterized by a ~40-m thick temperature minimum layer beginning at ~30 m depth. Below the halocline, well-defined thermohaline diffusive staircases extended downwards to warm Atlantic Water intrusions found at 200-800 m depth. Observed turbulent eddy kinetic energy dissipations are extremely low (

\epsilon

< 10-6 W m-3), such that double diffusive convection dominates the vertical mixing in the upper-ocean. The diffusive convection heat fluxes F H dc ~1 W m-2, are an order of magnitude too small to account for the observed along-stream cooling of the boundary current. Our results implicate circulation patterns and the influence of shelf waters in the evolution of the boundary current waters.

Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere

Article

Full-text available

Jan 1980

This study investigates the response of a global model of the climate to the quadrupling of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The model consists of (1) a general circulation model of the atmosphere, (2) a heat and water balance model of the continents, and (3) a simple mixed layer model of the oceans. It has a global computational domain and realistic geography. For the computation of radiative transfer, the seasonal variation of insolation is imposed at the top of the model atmosphere, and the fixed distribution of cloud cover is prescribed as a function of latitude and of height. It is found that with some exceptions, the model succeeds in reproducing the large-scale characteristics of seasonal and geographical variation of the observed atmospheric temperature. The climatic effect of a CO2 increase is determined by comparing statistical equilibrium states of the model atmosphere with a normal concentration and with a 4 times the normal concentration of CO2 in the air. It is found that the warming of the model atmosphere resulting from CO2 increase has significant seasonal and latitudinal variation. Because of the absence of an albedo feedback mechanism, the warming over the Antarctic continent is somewhat less than the warming in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Over the Arctic Ocean and its surroundings, the warming is much larger in winter than summer, thereby reducing the amplitude of seasonal temperature variation. It is concluded that this seasonal asymmetry in the warming results from the reduction in the coverage and thickness of the sea ice. The warming of the model atmosphere results in an enrichment of the moisture content in the air and an increase in the poleward moisture transport. The additional moisture is picked up from the tropical ocean and is brought to high latitudes where both precipitation and runoff increase throughout the year. Further, the time of rapid snowmelt and maximum runoff becomes earlier.

Internal Waves and Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zone near the Yermak Plateau

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2010

Observations were made of oceanic currents, hydrography, and microstructure in the southern Yermak Plateau in summer 2007. The location is in the marginal ice zone at the Arctic Front northwest of Svalbard, where the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) carries the warm Atlantic Water into the Arctic Ocean. Time series of approximately 1-day duration from five stations (upper 520 m) and of an 8-day duration from a mooring are analyzed to describe the characteristics of internal waves and turbulent mixing. The spectral composition of the internal-wave field over the southern Yermak Plateau is 0.1-0.3 times the midlatitude levels and compares with the most energetic levels in the central Arctic. Dissipation rate and eddy diffusivity below the pycnocline increase from the noise level on the cold side of the front by one order of magnitude on the warm side, where 100-m-thick layers with average diffusivities of 5 3 10-5 m2 s-1 lead to heat loss from the Atlantic Water of 2-4 W m-2. Dissipation in the upper 150 m is well above the noise level at all stations, but strong stratification at the cold side of the front prohibits mixing across the pycnocline. Close to the shelf, at the core of the Svalbard branch of the WSC, diffusivity increases by another factor of 3-6. Here, nearbottom mixing removes 15 W m-2 of heat from the Atlantic layer. Internal-wave activity and mixing show variability related to topography and hydrography; thus, the path of the WSC will affect the cooling and freshening of the Atlantic inflow. When generalized to the Arctic Ocean, diapycnal mixing away from abyssal plains can be significant for the heat budget. Around the Yermak Plateau, it is of sufficient magnitude to influence heat anomaly pulses entering the Arctic Ocean; however, diapycnal mixing alone is unlikely to be significant for regional cooling of the WSC.

Effective Diffusivities Within Oceanic Thermohaline Staircases

Article

Full-text available

Jan 1984

Dan E Kelley

A scale for the thickness of layers in regular ``diffusive''-type thermohaline staircases, derived from dimensional analysis, is found to collapse oceanic data. Combining this scale with laboratory-derived double-diffusive flux laws, we formulate effective diffusivities for salt, heat, and density. The diffusivities depend on the Turner number Rrho, but are independent of the brunt-Vaisala frequency. For Rrho near 1 the diffusivities for salt and heat are approximately equal (~=10-4 m2s-1). They decrease roughly as Rrho-4 and Rrho-2, respectively, over the oceanic range 1

Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2008
GEOPHYS RES LETT

1] The summer extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, widely recognized as an indicator of climate change, has been declining for the past few decades reaching a record minimum in September 2007. The causes of the dramatic loss have implications for the future trajectory of the Arctic sea ice cover. Ice mass balance observations demonstrate that there was an extraordinarily large amount of melting on the bottom of the ice in the Beaufort Sea in the summer of 2007. Calculations indicate that solar heating of the upper ocean was the primary source of heat for this observed enhanced Beaufort Sea bottom melting. An increase in the open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice – albedo feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.

Weak Vertical Diffusion Allows Maintenance of Cold Halocline in the Central Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2009

Ilker Fer

In spring preceding the record minimum summer ice cover detailed microstructure measurements were made from drifting pack ice in the Arctic Ocean, 110 km from the North Pole. Profiles of hydrography, shear, and temperature microstructure collected in the upper water column covering the core of the Atlantic Water are analyzed to determine the diapycnal eddy diffusivity, the eddy diffusivity for heat, and the turbulent flux of heat. Turbulence in the bulk of the cold halocline layer was not strong enough to generate significant buoyancy flux and mixing. Resulting turbulent heat flux across the upper cold halocline was not significantly different than zero. The results show that the low levels of eddy diffusivity in the upper cold halocline lead to small vertical turbulent transport of heat, thereby allowing the maintenance of the cold halocline in the central Arctic.

Arctic Ocean Warming Contributes to Reduced Polar Ice Cap

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2010

Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediate-depth (150-900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local ~1°C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminatedin 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.24°C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomaliesof up to 1°C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AWwarming was associated with a substantial (up to 75-90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice-ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28-35 cm of ice thickness after ~50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m-2 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

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