Article

Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

July 2020
Journal of Climate 33(18):1-43

DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0976.1

Authors:

Tom Rippeth

Bangor University

Ilker Fer

University of Bergen

Matthew Buckley Alkire

University of Washington Seattle

Show all 13 authorsHide

A 15-year duration record of mooring observations from the eastern (>70°E) Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean is used to show and quantify the recently increased oceanic heat flux from intermediate-depth (∼150-900 m) warm Atlantic Water (AW) to the surface mixed layer (SML) and sea ice. The upward release of AW heat is regulated by the stability of the overlying halocline, which we show has weakened substantially in recent years. Shoaling of the AW has also contributed, with observations in winter 2017-2018 showing AW at only 80 m depth, just below the wintertime surface mixed layer (SML), the shallowest in our mooring records. The weakening of the halocline for several months at this time implies that AW heat was linked to winter convection associated with brine rejection during sea ice formation. This resulted in a substantial increase of upward oceanic heat flux during the winter season, from an average of 3-4 W/m2 in 2007-2008 to >10 W/m2 in 2016-2018. This seasonal AW heat loss in the eastern EB is equivalent to a more than a two-fold reduction of winter ice growth. These changes imply a positive feedback as reduced sea ice cover permits increased mixing, augmenting the summer-dominated ice-albedo feedback.

Phytoplankton of the High-Latitude Arctic: Intensive Growth Large Diatoms Porosira glacialis in the Nansen Basin

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

In August 2020, during a dramatical summer retreat of sea ice in the Nansen Basin, a study of phytoplankton was conducted on the transect from two northern stations in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) (north of 83° N m and east of 38° E) through the open water to the southern station located in the Franz Victoria Trench. The presence of melted polar surface waters (mPSW), polar surface waters (PS,W), and Atlantic waters (AW) were characteristic of the MIZ. There are only two water masses in open water, namely PSW and AW, at the southernmost station; the contribution of AW was minimal. In the MIZ, first-year and multiyear ice species and Atlantic species were noted; Atlantic species and first-year ice species were in open water, and only ice flora was at the southernmost station. The maximum phytoplankton biomass (30 g m−3) was recorded at the northernmost station of the MIZ, and 99% of the phytoplankton consisted of a large diatom Porosira glacialis. Intensive growth of this species occurred on the subsurface halocline separating mPSW from PSW. A thermocline was formed in open water south of the MIZ towards the Franz Victoria Trench. A strong stratification decreases vertical nutrient fluxes, so phytoplankton biomass decreases significantly. Phytoplankton formed the maximum biomass in the thermocline. When moving south, biomass decreased and its minimum values were observed at the southernmost station where the influence of AW is minimal or completely absent. A transition from the silicon-limited state of phytoplankton (MIZ area) to nitrogen-limited (open water) was noted.

Copernicus Marine Sea Surface Temperature and chlorophyll-a indicators for two Pacific Islands: a co-construction monitoring framework for an integrated, transdisciplinary, multi-scale approach

Article

Jan 2022

Copernicus Ocean State Report, Issue 6

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2022
J OPER OCEANOGR

The Copernicus Ocean State Report is an annual publication of the Copernicus Marine Service, established in 2014 by the European Commission for Copernicus 1 and renewed in 2021 for Copernicus 2. The report provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, scientific overview on the current conditions, natural variations, and ongoing changes in the global ocean and European regional seas. It is meant to act as a reference for the scientific community, national and international bodies, decision-makers, blue economy actors, and the general public. Using satellite data, in situ measurements and models, this integrated description of the ocean state feeds into a four-dimensional view (latitude, longitude, depth, and time) of the Blue, Green, and White Ocean. It draws on expert analysis written by over 150 scientific experts from more than 30 international institutions. Scientific integrity is assured through a process of independent peer review in collaboration with the Journal of Operational Oceanography. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2022.2095169

Spatial and temporal variability of Atlantic Water in the Arctic from forty years of observations

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2022

Atlantic Water (AW) is the largest reservoir of heat in the Arctic Ocean, isolated from the surface and sea ice by a strong halocline. In recent years, AW shoaling and warming are thought to have had an increased influence on sea ice in the Eurasian Basin. In this study, we analyze 59,000 profiles from across the Arctic from the 1970s to 2018 to obtain an observationally based pan‐Arctic picture of the AW layer, and to quantify temporal and spatial changes. The potential temperature maximum of the AW (the AW core) is found to be an easily detectable, and generally effective metric for assessments of AW properties, although temporal trends in AW core properties do not always reflect those of the entire AW layer. The AW core cools and freshens along the AW advection pathway as the AW loses heat and salt through vertical mixing at its upper bound, as well as via likely interaction with cascading shelf flows. In contrast to the Eurasian Basin, where the AW warms (by approximately 0.7°C between 2002 and 2018) in a pulse‐like fashion and has an increased influence on upper ocean heat content, AW in the Canadian Basin cools (by approximately 0.1°C between 2008 and 2018) and becomes more isolated from the surface due to the intensification of the Beaufort Gyre. These opposing AW trends in the Eurasian and Canadian Basins of the Arctic over the last 40 years suggest that AW in these two regions may evolve differently over the coming decades.

Atlantic Water Properties, Transport and Heat Loss From Mooring Observations North of Svalbard

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022

The Atlantic Water inflow to the Arctic Ocean is transformed and modified in the area north of Svalbard, which influences the Arctic Ocean heat and salt budget. Year‐round observations are relatively sparse in this region partially covered by sea ice. We took advantage of one‐year‐long records of ocean currents and hydrography from seven moorings north of Svalbard. The moorings are organized in two arrays separated by 94 km along the path of the Atlantic Water inflow to investigate the properties, transport and heat loss of the Atlantic Water in 2018/2019. The Atlantic Water volume transport varies from 0.5 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹) in spring to 2 Sv in fall. The first mode of variation of the Atlantic Water inflow temperature is a warm/cold mode with a seasonal cycle. The second mode corresponds to a shorter time scale (6–7 days) variability in the onshore/offshore displacement of the temperature core linked to the mesoscale variability. Heat loss from the Atlantic Water in this region is estimated, for the first time using two mooring arrays and conserving the volume transport. The heat loss varies between 302 W m⁻² in winter to 60 W m⁻² in spring. The onshore moorings show a westward countercurrent driven by Ekman setup in spring, carrying transformed‐Atlantic Water. The offshore moorings show a bottom‐intensified current that covaries with the wind stress curl. These two mooring arrays allowed for a better comprehension of the structure and transformation of the slope currents north of Svalbard.

On the evolution of the halocline in the upper Arctic Ocean since 2007

Thesis

Dec 2021

Cecilia Bertosio

In the Arctic Ocean, stratification is determined by salinity, unlike the mid-latitude oceans which are stratified by temperature. In other words, in the Arctic, salty water ends up at the bottom, even if it is warmer. The halocline of the Arctic Ocean is a 100-200m thick layer with strong vertical salinity gradients and is located between 100 and 350m depth. The halocline lies between the sea ice at the surface and the relatively warm Atlantic water. The halocline thus insulates the ice from the heat reservoir contained in the underlying Atlantic layer, and is a key element for the maintenance of the sea ice cover. During this thesis, we studied the evolution of the Arctic Ocean halocline since 2007, using several tools: hydrographic measurements obtained from autonomous drifting platforms or from sea campaigns, and high spatial resolution numerical model simulations ("PSY4").

A Role for the Ocean in the Winter Sea Ice Distribution North of Svalbard

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2022

The ocean is suggested to play a major role in the ongoing winter decay of the sea ice cover in the western Eurasian Basin. Using a high‐resolution sea ice‐ocean model, we investigate the processes influencing the ice‐ocean interactions in winter in the waters north of Svalbard, with a particular focus on those contributing to sea ice melt events of large amplitude. These short term events, lasting 5–10 days, are associated with locally large melt rates mostly found along the pathway of the Atlantic Water. The sum of all these events over the simulation period is found to contribute 40% of the total winter melt. Episodes of strong surface winds, occasionally associated with enhanced velocity shear at the mixed layer base, can trigger enhanced entrainment of Atlantic Water through the relatively shallow upper thermocline in the Atlantic Water boundary current, leading to substantial ocean heat transfer to the sea ice. In some cases, strengthening of the boundary current also contributes to fueling the heat transfer to the ice. Another type of large melt event, not linked to increased ocean vertical heat flux but due to ice being advected over warm surface waters, is also identified, sometimes associated with episodes of ice close‐up. Sea ice budget calculations show that, overall, large melt events contribute significantly to the eastward retreat of the winter marginal ice zone on the upper slope east of Svalbard while episodes of northward advection of ice largely dominate the ice edge retreat over the shelf north of Svalbard.

A Synthesis of the Upper Arctic Ocean Circulation During 2000–2019: Understanding the Roles of Wind Forcing and Sea Ice Decline

Article

Full-text available

May 2022

Major changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean during 2000-2019, including the unprecedented spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre and the emergence of Arctic Atlantification in the eastern Eurasian Basin. We explored the main drivers for these changes by synthesizing numerical simulations and observations in this paper. The Arctic atmospheric circulation was unusual in some years in this period, with strongly negative wind curl over the Canada Basin. However, the wind-driven spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre would have been much weaker had it not been for Arctic sea ice decline. The sea ice decline not only fed the ocean with meltwater, but also made other freshwater components more available to the Beaufort Gyre through mediating the ocean surface stress. This dynamical effect of shifting surface freshwater from the Eurasian Basin towards the Amerasian Basin also resulted in the Arctic Atlantification in the eastern Eurasian Basin, which is characterized by halocline salinification and the uplift of the boundary between the halocline and the Atlantic Water layer. Contemporarily, the sea ice decline caused a strong warming trend in the Atlantic Water layer. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of Arctic annual sea surface height for this period reveals that the first two modes of the upper ocean circulation have active centers associated with the Arctic Oscillation and Beaufort High variability, respectively. In the presence of sea ice decline the first two EOFs can better distinguish the ocean variability driven by the two atmospheric circulation modes. Therefore, the major changes in the Arctic Ocean in the past two decades are indicators of climate change as is the sea ice retreat. Our synthesis could help assess how the Arctic Ocean might change in future warming climate.

Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023
NATURE

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties1. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing2. Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Enhances the Oceanic Contribution to Climate Change

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

Vladimir Ivanov

Since the mid-1990s, there has been a marked decrease in the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean. After reaching an absolute minimum in September 2012, the seasonal variations in the SIE have settled at a new level, which is almost one-quarter lower than the average climatic norm of 1979–2022. Increased melting and accelerated ice export from marginal seas ensure an increase in the open water area, which affects the lower atmosphere and the surface layer of the ocean. Scientists are cautiously predicting a transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean as early as the middle of this century, which is about 50 years earlier than was predicted just a few years ago. Such predictions are based on the fact that the decrease in sea ice extent and ice thinning that occurred at the beginning of this century, initially caused by an increase in air temperature, triggered an increase in the thermal and dynamic contribution of the ocean to the further reduction in the ice cover. This paper reviews published evidence of such changes and discusses possible mechanisms behind the observed regional anomalies of the Arctic Sea ice cover parameters in the last decade.

Winter Vertical Diffusion Rates in the Arctic Ocean, Estimated From Be Measurements and Dissipation Rate Profiles

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

Ocean turbulent mixing is a key process affecting the uptake and redistribution of heat, carbon, nutrients, oxygen and other dissolved gasses. Vertical turbulent diffusivity sets the rates of water mass transformations and ocean mixing, and is intrinsically an average quantity over process time scales. Estimates based on microstructure profiling, however, are typically obtained as averages over individual profiles. How representative such averaged diffusivities are, remains unexplored in the quiescent Arctic Ocean. Here, we compare upper ocean vertical diffusivities in winter, derived from the ⁷Be tracer‐based approach to those estimated from direct turbulence measurements during the year‐long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, 2019–2020. We found that diffusivity estimates from both methods agree within their respective measurement uncertainties. Diffusivity estimates obtained from dissipation rate profiles are sensitive to the averaging method applied, and the processing and analysis of similar data sets must take this sensitivity into account. Our findings indicate low characteristic diffusivities around 10⁻⁶ m² s⁻¹ and correspondingly low vertical heat fluxes.

Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2022

The volume, extent and age of Arctic sea ice is in decline, yet winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Previous work suggests that further warming will at some point lead to a decline in ice production, however a consistent explanation of both rise and fall is hitherto missing. Here, we investigate these driving factors through a simple linear model for ice production. We focus on the Kara and Laptev seas-sometimes referred to as Arctic “ice factories” for their outsized role in ice production, and train the model on internal variability across the Community Earth System Model’s Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). The linear model is highly skilful at explaining internal variability and can also explain the forced rise-then-fall of ice production, providing insight into the competing drivers of change. We apply our linear model to the same climate variables from observation-based data; the resulting estimate of ice production over recent decades suggests that, just as in CESM-LE, we are currently passing the peak of ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas.

Influence of suspended particulate matter on the optical properties of seawater in the western Eurasian Arctic shelf

Conference Paper

Full-text available

Dec 2022

Changes in Arctic Halocline Waters Along the East Siberian Slope and in the Makarov Basin From 2007 to 2020

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2022

The evolution of halocline waters in the Makarov Basin and along the East Siberian continental slope is examined by combining drifting platform observations, shipborne hydrographic data, and simulations from a global operational physical model from 2007 to 2020. From 2012 onwards, relatively shallow and cold Atlantic‐derived lower halocline waters, previously restricted to the Lomonosov Ridge area, progressed eastward along the East Siberian continental slope. Their eastward extent abruptly shifted from 155°E to 170°E in early 2012, stabilized at 170°E until the end of 2015, then gradually advanced to reach the western Chukchi Sea in 2017. Such eastward progression led to a strengthening of the associated boundary current and to the shedding of mesoscale eddies of cold Atlantic‐derived waters into the lower halocline of the Makarov Basin in September 2015 and near the East Siberian continental slope in November 2017. Additionally, active mixing between upwelled Atlantic Water and shelf water formed dense warm water supplying the Makarov Basin lower halocline. The increasing contribution from Atlantic‐derived waters into the lower halocline along the East Siberian continental slope and in the Makarov Basin led to a weakening of the halocline, which is characteristic of a new Arctic Ocean regime that started in the early 2000s in the Eurasian Basin. Our results suggest that this new Arctic regime may now extend toward the Amerasian Basin.

Changes in Freshwater Distribution and Pathways in the Arctic Ocean Since 2007 in the Mercator Ocean Global Operational System

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2022

Low‐salinity waters in the upper Arctic Ocean, referred to as “freshwaters”, are cold and play a major role in isolating the sea ice cover from the heat stored in the salty Atlantic Waters (AWs) underneath. We examined changes in Arctic freshwater distribution and circulation since 2007 using the 1/12° global Mercator Ocean operational model. We first evaluated model simulations over the upper water column in the Arctic Ocean, using nearly 20,000 independent in situ temperature‐salinity profiles over the 2007–2020 period. Simulated hydrographic properties and water mass distributions were in good agreement with observations. Comparison with long‐term mooring data in the Bering Strait and Beaufort Gyre highlighted the model's capabilities for reproducing the interannual evolution of Pacific Water properties. Taking advantage of the good performance of the model, we examined the interannual evolution of the freshwater distribution and circulation over 2007–2020. The Beaufort Gyre is the major freshwater reservoir across the full Arctic Ocean. After 2012 the gyre extended northward and increased the freshwater content (FC) in the Makarov Basin, near the North Pole. Coincidentally, the FC decreased along the East Siberian slope, along with the AW shoaling, and the Transpolar Drift moved from the Lomonosov Ridge to align with the Mendeleev Ridge. We found that these changes in freshwater distribution were followed in 2015 by a marked change in the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean with a reduction in Fram Strait (−30%) and an increase in the western Canadian Archipelago (+16%).

Exploring Five Methods for Estimating Net Community Production on the Siberian Continental Shelf and Slope of the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022

The loss of sea ice and changes to vertical stratification in the Arctic Ocean are altering the availability of light and nutrients, with significant consequences for net community production (NCP) and carbon export. However, a general lack of quality data, particular during winter months, inhibits our ability to quantify such change. As a result, two parameters necessary for calculating annual NCP, integration depth (Zint) and pre-bloom nitrate concentration (Npre), are often either assigned or estimated from summer measurements. Vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen were collected during three cruises conducted between August and October of 2013, 2015, and 2018 in a data-sparse region of the Arctic Ocean along the Siberian continental slope. Estimates of NCP were calculated from these data using five different methods that either assigned constant values for Zint and/or Npre or estimated these parameters from summer observations. The five methods returned similar mean values of Zint (44–54 m), Npre (5.4–5.7 mmol m–3), and NCP (12–16 g C m–2) across the study region; however, there was considerable variability among stations/profiles. It was determined that the NCP calculations were particularly sensitive to Npre. Despite this sensitivity, mean NCP estimates calculated along four transects re-occupied during the three cruises generally agreed across the five methods with two important exceptions. First, methods with pre-assigned Zint and/or Npre underestimated the NCP when the nitracline shoaled in the Laptev Sea and when high-nutrient shelf waters were advected northward from the East Siberian Sea shelf in 2015. In contrast, the methods that directly estimated both Zint and Npre did not suffer from this bias. These results suggest that assignment of Npre and/or Zint provides reasonable estimates of NCP, particularly averaged over larger spatial scales and/or longer time scales, but these approaches are not suitable for evaluating interannual variability in NCP, particularly in dynamic regions. Combining all methods across the three cruise years indicates NCP in the Laptev Sea and Lomonosov Ridge areas (10–11 g C m–2) was slightly lower than that north of Severnaya Zemlya (13 g C m–2) and in the East Siberian Sea (16 g C m–2).

Observed Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Outflow in Fram Strait

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022

We have updated time series of liquid fresh water transport (FWT) in the East Greenland Current (EGC) in the western Fram Strait with mooring observations since 2015. Novel data have been used to correct earlier estimates when instrument coverage was lower. The updated FWT (reference salinity 34.9) shows that the increased export between 2010 and 2015 has not continued, but FWT has decreased to pre‐2009 levels. Salt transport independent of a reference salinity is shown not to be sensitive to salinity changes. Between 2015 and 2019, the FWT in the Polar Water (PW) decreased to an average of 59.9 (±4.5) mSV, 15% less than the 2003–2019 long‐term mean, however, high FWT events occurred in 2017. The overall decrease is related to a slowdown of the EGC, partly attributed to a decrease of the zonal density gradient, due to stronger salinification of the halocline waters (26.5 < σθ < 27.7 kg/m³) over the shelf. This salinification counterbalances the freshening of the surface layer (σθ < 26.5 kg/m³) and the fresh water content decreases. Our results show changes in the PW between 2003 and 2019: Salinity stratification increased as the salinity difference between 155 and 55 m increased by 0.63 psu, the PW layer became thinner by 40–50 m and the Polar‐Atlantic front moved ∼10 km west in June 2015. All processes point to an “Atlantification” of the western Fram Strait and a reduced Polar outflow. Including the novel data sets reduced the uncertainty of the FWT to an average of 8% after 2015, as opposed to 17% in earlier estimates.

Increasing Winter Ocean‐to‐Ice Heat Flux in the Beaufort Gyre Region, Arctic Ocean Over 2006–2018

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Plain Language Summary Heat transferred from the ocean to the sea ice influences the extent to which sea ice melts or freezes. It is unclear how variable this heat transfer is during winter. Using multiple drifting instruments, our results reveal that ocean‐to‐ice heat transfer almost doubled from 2006–2012 to 2013–2018. The enhanced heat transfer is a result of thinner and looser sea ice that leads to enhanced ice growth during winter. This enhanced ice growth causes stronger mixing within the ocean and so larger transfers of heat from the ocean to the ice. Changes in the extent to which water is physically pushed upwards had a secondary role in enhanced ocean‐to‐ice heat transfer over the study period. As a result of the increased ice growth, the pool of water directly in contact with the ice cover is cooler, saltier, and deeper over 2013–2018 compared with 2006–2012. Changes in ocean temperature at depth additionally favor stronger subsurface heat entrainment during 2013–2018. Ocean‐to‐ice heat transfer and its increase during 2006–2018 was not geographically uniform, with hot spots found where ice was most seasonally variable.

Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition of Norwegian Barents Sea Shelf Ecosystems

Technical Report

Full-text available

Mar 2023

Patterns of wintertime Arctic sea ice leads and their relation to winds and ocean currents

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2023

We use a novel sea-ice lead climatology based on satellite observations with 1 km2 spatial resolution to identify predominant patterns in Arctic wintertime sea-ice leads. The causes for the observed spatial and temporal variabilities are investigated using ocean surface current velocities and eddy kinetic energies from an ocean model (FESOM) and winds from a regional climate model (CCLM) and ERA5 reanalysis, respectively. The presented investigation provides clear evidence for the influence of ocean depth and associated currents on the mechanic weakening of sea ice and the accompanied occurrence of sea-ice leads with their characteristic spatial patterns. While the ocean influence on lead dynamics acts on a rather long-term scale (seasonal to inter-annual), the influence of wind appears to trigger sea-ice lead dynamics on shorter time scales of weeks to months and is largely controlled by individual events causing increased divergence.

Structure and Seasonal Variability of the Arctic Boundary Current North of Severnaya Zemlya

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

We assessed the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic Boundary Current (ABC) using seven oceanographic moorings, deployed across the continental slope north of Severnaya Zemlya in 2015–2018. Transports and individual water masses were quantified based on temperature and salinity recorders and current profilers. Our results were compared with observations from the northeast Svalbard and the central Laptev Sea continental slopes to evaluate the hydrographic transformation along the ABC pathway. The highest velocities (>0.30 m s⁻¹) of the ABC occurred at the upper continental slope and decreased offshore to below 0.03 m s⁻¹ in the deep basin. The ABC showed seasonal variability with velocities two times higher in winter than in summer. Compared to upstream conditions in Svalbard, water mass distribution changed significantly within 20 km of the shelf edge due to mixing with‐ and intrusion of shelf waters. The ABC transported 4.15 ± 0.3 Sv in the depth range 50–1,000 m, where 0.88 ± 0.1, 1.5 ± 0.2, 0.61 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.15 Sv corresponded to Atlantic Water (AW), Dense Atlantic Water (DAW), Barents Sea Branch Water (BSBW) and Transformed Atlantic Water (TAW). 62–70% of transport was constrained to within 30–40 km of the shelf edge, and beyond 84 km, transport increases were estimated to be 0.54 Sv. Seasonality of TAW derived from local shelf‐processes and advection of seasonal‐variable Fram Strait waters, while BSBW transport variability was dominated by temperature changes with maximum transport coinciding with minimum temperatures. Further Barents Sea warming will likely reduce TAW and BSBW transport leading to warmer conditions along the ABC pathway.

Elemental Composition of Particulate Matter in the Euphotic and Benthic Boundary Layers of the Barents and Norwegian Seas

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

The increasing influence of Atlantic inflows in the Arctic Ocean in recent decades has had a potential impact on regional biogeochemical cycles of major and trace elements. The warm and salty Atlantic water, entering the Eurasian Basin through the Norwegian Sea margin and the Barents Sea, affects particle transport, sink, phyto-, and zooplankton community structure and could have far-reaching consequences for the marine ecosystems. This study discusses the elemental composition of suspended particulate matter and fluffy-layer suspended matter derived from samples collected in the Barents Sea and northern Norwegian Sea in August 2017. The mosaic distribution of SPM elemental composition is mainly determined by two factors: (i) The essential spatial variability of biological processes (primary production, abundance, and phytoplankton composition) and (ii) differences in the input of terrigenous sedimentary matter to the sea area from drainage sources (weak river runoff, melting of archipelago glaciers, etc.). The distribution of lithogenic, bioessential, and redox-sensitive groups of elements in the particulate matter was studied at full-depth profiles. Marine cycling of strontium in the Barents Sea is shown to be significantly affected by increasing coccolithophorid bloom, which is associated with Atlantic water. Mn, Cu, Cd, and Ba significantly enrich the suspended particulate matter of the benthic nepheloid layer relative to the fluffy layer particulate matter within the benthic boundary layer.

Changes in Freshwater Content in the Arctic Basin, Sea Ice Cover Reduction and Warming in the Arctic

Article

Jan 2022

The paper deals with global changes in regime and climate of Arctic basin. Changes in the content and inflows of freshwater into the upper 100 m layer of the Arctic basin from decade to decade (1950s – 2010s) were determined. Data from national expedition surveys of the Arctic Basin in the 1950s to the 1970s combined with data from expe- ditions in the 1980s to the 2010s were used. The results obtained showed that freshwater content (FWC) decreased in the Eurasian and increased in the Amerasian part of the Arctic basin in the 1990s – 2000s. The decrease in the FWC occurred in the result of increased Atlantic water inflow since the 1990s and the salinization of the upper 100 m layer of Arctic Ocean, despite increased precipitation, river runoff and sea ice melt. The influence from the tropics of the North Atlantic on climatic changes in the structure of Arctic basin waters, on the reduction of the sea ice cover and warming in the Arctic with a delay of 2-3 years was established. Methods of multidimensional correlation analysis, calculation of spectra and coherences, and construction of correlation graphs were used.

Acoustic Sensing of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth and Temperature from Uplooking ADCPs

Article

Nov 2022

Properties of the surface mixed layer (ML) are critical for understanding and predicting atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions in the changing Arctic Ocean. Mooring measurements are typically unable to resolve the ML in the Arctic due to the need for instruments to remain below the surface to avoid contact with sea ice and icebergs. Here, we use measurements from a series of three moorings installed for one year in the Beaufort Sea to demonstrate that upward looking Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) installed on subsurface floats can be used to estimate ML properties. A method is developed for combining measured peaks in acoustic backscatter and inertial shear from the ADCPs to estimate the ML depth. Additionally, we use an inverse sound speed model to infer the summer ML temperature based on offsets in ADCP altimeter distance during open water periods. The ADCP estimates of ML depth and ML temperature compare favourably with measurements made from mooring temperature sensors, satellite SST, and from an autonomous Seaglider. These methods could be applied to other extant mooring records to recover additional information about ML property changes and variability.

Arctic Ocean freshwater in CMIP6 coupled models

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2022

In this study we assessed the representation of the sea surface salinity (SSS) and liquid freshwater content (LFWC) of the Arctic Ocean in the historical simulation of 31 CMIP6 models with comparison to 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and investigated the projected changes in Arctic liquid and solid freshwater content and freshwater budget in scenarios with two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). No significant improvement was found in the SSS and LFWC simulation from CMIP5 to CMIP6, given the large model spreads in both CMIP phases. The overestimation of LFWC continues to be a common bias in CMIP6. In the historical simulation, the multi‐model mean river runoff, net precipitation, Bering Strait and Barents Sea Opening (BSO) freshwater transports are 2,928 ± 1,068, 1,839 ± 3,424, 2,538 ± 1,009, and −636 ± 553 km³/year, respectively. In the last decade of the 21st century, CMIP6 MMM projects these budget terms to rise to 4,346 ± 1,484 km³/year (3,678 ± 1,255 km³/year), 3,866 ± 2,935 km³/year (3,145 ± 2,651 km³/year), 2,631 ± 1,119 km³/year (2,649 ± 1,141 km³/year) and 1,033 ± 1,496 km³/year (449 ± 1,222 km³/year) under SSP5‐8.5 (SSP2‐4.5). Arctic sea ice is expected to continue declining in the future, and sea ice meltwater flux is likely to decrease to about zero in the mid‐21st century under both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. Liquid freshwater exiting Fram and Davis straits will be higher in the future, and the Fram Strait export will remain larger. The Arctic Ocean is projected to hold a total of 160,300 ± 62,330 km³ (141,590 ± 50,310 km³) liquid freshwater under SSP5‐8.5 (SSP2‐4.5) by 2100, about 60% (40%) more than its historical climatology.

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2022

Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the "Arctic Ocean Amplification." The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth's regions most susceptible to climate change.

An Optimal Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Favoring Strong Summertime Sea Ice Melting and Ice–Albedo Feedback

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2022

The rapid decline of summer Arctic sea ice over the past few decades has been driven by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and internal variability of the climate system. However, uncertainties remain regarding spatial and temporal characteristics of the optimal internal atmospheric mode that most favors summer sea ice melting on low-frequency time scales. To pinpoint this mode, we conduct a suite of simulations in which atmospheric circulation is constrained by nudging tropospheric Arctic (60-90°N) winds within the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) to those from reanalysis. Each reanalysis year is repeated for over 10 model years using fixed greenhouse gas concentrations and the same initial conditions. Composites show the strongest September sea ice losses are closely preceded by a common JJA (June-July-August) barotropic anticyclonic circulation in the Arctic favoring shortwave absorption at the surface. Successive years of strong wind-driven melting also enhance declines in Arctic sea ice through enhancement of the ice-albedo feedback, reaching a quasi-equilibrium response after repeated wind forcing for over 5-6 years, as the effectiveness of the wind-driven ice-albedo feedback becomes saturated. Strong melting favored by a similar wind pattern as observations is detected in a long preindustrial simulation and 400-yr paleoclimate reanalysis, suggesting that a summer barotropic anticyclonic wind pattern represents the optimal internal atmospheric mode maximizing sea ice melting in both the model and natural world over a range of timescales. Considering strong contributions of this mode to changes in Arctic climate, a better understanding of its origin and maintenance is vital to improving future projections of Arctic sea ice.

Abrupt Quaternary Ocean-ice Events in the Arctic: Evidence from the Ostracode Rabilimis

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022
Micropaleontology

The Arctic Ocean has experienced orbital and millennial-scale climate oscillations over the last 500 kilo-annum (ka) involving massive changes in global sea level and components of the Arctic cryosphere, including sea-ice cover, land-based ice sheets and ice shelves. Although these climate events are only partially understood, micropaleontological studies utilizing ostracodes and benthic foraminifera have demonstrated that major changes in faunas have occurred at different timescales that signify ecosystem regime changes linked to sea-ice cover, surface productivity, bottom temperature and other factors. In addition to faunal changes characterizing glacial-interglacial cycles, Arctic sediments contain several unusual faunal events that cannot be explained by orbital-scale sea level and cryospheric changes. One indicator of such events involves the ostracode Rabilimis mirabilis (Brady 1868), a shallow-water species that inhabits continental shelves in the modern Arctic. We conducted studies of the stratigraphic distribution of R. mirabilis in cores from the Northwind, Mendeleev, Lomonosov, and Alpha Ridges; the Siberian and North American (Beaufort Sea) continental margins; and the Lincoln Sea off North Greenland and in the northern Greenland Sherard Osborn Fjord. Evidence from these records suggests that this species occurs as a fossil in deeper water sediment cores on the upper parts of submarine ridges (mainly 700-900 meters water depth, mwd), in significant numbers (from 1%to 50% of total ostracodes) during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a (125-109 ka), MIS 4 (71-57 ka), and MIS 3 (57-29 ka). Furthermore, it occurs in cores from various depths on the Siberian margin, the Beaufort and Lincoln Seas during MIS 1 (the Holocene, approx. 11-0 ka). These occurrences involve well-preserved, stratigraphically consistent adult and juvenile populations, which are autochthonous in nature and not caused by downslope transport or ice rafting. Based on their age and associated paleoceanographic conditions in the Arctic, we interpret these R. mirabilis events as signifying basin-ward migration during abrupt changes in growth and decay of massive ice shelves and may be useful as biostratigraphic markers.

An Updated Assessment of the Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022
OCEANOGRAPHY

Sea ice is an essential component of the Arctic climate system. The Arctic sea ice cover has undergone substantial changes in the past 40+ years, including decline in areal extent in all months (strongest during summer), thinning, loss of multiyear ice cover, earlier melt onset and ice retreat, and later freeze-up and ice advance. In the past 10 years, these trends have been further reinforced, though the trends (not statistically significant at p <0.05) in some parameters (e.g., extent) over the past decade are more moderate. Since 2011, observing capabilities have improved significantly, including collection of the first basin-wide routine observations of sea ice freeboard and thickness by radar and laser altimeters (except during summer). In addition, data from a year-long field campaign during 2019–2020 promises to yield a bounty of in situ data that will vastly improve understanding of small-scale processes and the interactions between sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere, as well as provide valuable validation data for satellite missions. Sea ice impacts within the Arctic are clear and are already affecting humans as well as flora and fauna. Impacts outside of the Arctic, while garnering much attention, remain unclear. The future of Arctic sea ice is dependent on future CO2 emissions, but a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely in the coming decades. However, year-to-year variability causes considerable uncertainty on exactly when this will happen. The variability is also a challenge for seasonal prediction.

Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational System (NABOS): Contributing to Understanding Changes in the Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022
OCEANOGRAPHY

On September 2, 2002, the Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational System (NABOS) program deployed its first mooring in the Eastern Eurasian Basin (EEB) of the Arctic Ocean. Since then, NABOS moorings, complemented by repeat multidisciplinary shipborne surveys and Lagrangian drifters, have provided a unique data set in an area of traditionally sparse observations. A series of moorings placed at several strategically important locations continues to be the program’s primary monitoring tool for capturing major near-slope mass, heat, and salt transports and their links to lower-latitude processes. These data will aid in quantifying shelf-basin interactions, documenting water mass transformations, and understanding key mechanisms that lead to the Arctic Ocean’s variability. International collaboration, particularly among the eight Arctic countries, has been an essential part of this observational strategy, with researchers from 18 counties taking part in NABOS cruises since 2002.

Un-mixing the Ocean: Double Diffusion and Turbulence in Polar Oceans

Thesis

Sep 2021

Leo Middleton

This thesis concerns theory, numerical simulations and observations of double-diffusion in polar settings. Double diffusion refers to processes occurring due to the difference in molecular diffusivities between two components that both contribute to the density. Specifically, these processes occur in the ocean due to the much slower diffusion of salinity compared to temperature. Within polar regions, thermohaline staircases have been frequently observed. These are layered structures in both temperature and salinity that can form due to double-diffusive processes, that give a characteristic `staircase' shape to profiles of temperature and salinity. Thermohaline staircases provide observational evidence of the importance of double diffusion to small scale ocean mixing, and so motivate our discussion of double-diffusive convection in polar environments. After an introduction to the topic, the first results chapter discusses the energetics of double diffusion, developing a new model for the flow of energy within double-diffusive fluids. The second results chapter is motivated by observations of thermohaline staircases beneath George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We conducted Large-Eddy-Simulations to explore the interaction of double diffusive convection with turbulence forced at a prescribed rate. Utilising the theory developed in chapter 1, the transition between double diffusive convection and stratified turbulence is identified and a criterion is developed for that transition in terms of profiles in temperature, salinity, and turbulence rate. The third results chapter considers observational turbulence data collected in the Chukchi Sea in the marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean. This data shows an oceanographic section of a warm core intrahalocline eddy, where thermohaline layering was observed. We develop a criterion to predict the observed turbulent dissipation rates using fine-scale temperature and salinity data, assuming double-diffusive convection is active. This criterion is based on the energetic model from the first results chapter and assumes a lateral stirring of `spice’ variance (compensated thermohaline variance) along isopycnals is the driver of turbulence. The final results chapter consists of an analysis of mooring data from beneath George VI Ice Shelf, at the same location as thermohaline staircases were observed. We find that shear-driven turbulence cannot explain the observed dissipation rates. Utilising the method from the third results chapter, we show that lateral variations in spice can explain the observed turbulent mixing, suggesting it exerts control over the ice shelf basal melt rate.

Rapid loss of Arctic sea ice

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2022

Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are frequently dismissed by scientists. Thus, existing climate models are prepared with tipping points which insufficiently represent the actual environmental conditions, dismissing the strong correlations and self-reinforcements. Calculation of the Arctic sea ice loss is mostly done by using mathematical methods which only project the past observations to the future, without taking aforementioned impacts into consideration. In this contribution, we discuss environmental tipping points which might be more influential than expected when it comes to calculate the loss of the Arctic sea ice. Our literature search and Arctic sea ice volume loss analysis indicate the significant acceleration of the sea ice loss (which leads to a year around ice-free Arctic region) in near future.

Climate tipping points: A personal view

Article

Mar 2023
PHYS TODAY

Michael Edgeworth McIntyre

The worst uncertainties about climate change are outside the scope of climate models but can be thought about in other ways—especially by learning from past climates.

Technical note: Determining Arctic Ocean cold halocline and cold halostad layer depths based on vertical stability

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2023

The Arctic Ocean cold halocline layer (CHL) separates the cold surface mixed layer (SML) from the underlying warm Atlantic water, and thus provides a precondition for sea ice formation. Here, we introduce a new method in which the CHL base depth is diagnosed from vertical stability and compare it to two existing methods. Vertical stability directly affects vertical mixing and heat exchange. When applied to measurements from ice-tethered profilers, ships, and moorings, the new method for estimating the CHL base depth provides robust results with few artifacts. Comparatively large differences between our new method and two existing methods for detecting the CHL base depth were found in regions which are most prone to a CHL retreat in a warming climate. CHL base depth exhibits a seasonal cycle with a maximum depth in winter and also spring, when the SML depth is also at its maximum, but the amplitude of the CHL base depth's seasonal cycle is lower than for the SML for all three methods as expected. We also propose a novel method for detecting the cold halostad layer and study the seasonal cycle employing conservative assumptions to avoid a misclassification (including a lower bound of 50 m for the thickness). Detection of a cold halostad layer was largely confined to the Canada Basin and to the regions off the eastern coast of Greenland and also Svalbard.

Réponse à l'echelle génomique des communautés planctoniques au réchauffement climatique et conséquences sur leur biogéographie

Thesis

Full-text available

Nov 2022

Paul Frémont

Le plancton marin est constitué d'organismes microscopiques allant des virus jusqu'aux petit métazoaires en passant par les bactéries et les protistes. Il est transporté passivement par les courants, prospère sur l'ensemble des océans et a plusieurs rôles cruciaux au sein du système Terre. Le phytoplancton permet par la photosynthèse la production primaire de matière organique dans les océans soutenant l'ensemble des réseaux trophiques océaniques. Le plancton participe aussi à la pompe à carbone biologique, mécanisme par lequel la matière organique sédimente vers les fonds marins et y est stockée. Il est aujourd'hui primordial d'évaluer et projeter la réponse du plancton au changement climatique provoqué par la combustion des énergies fossiles. Dans cette thèse, j'étudie cette question sous le prisme de la biogéographie, discipline s'intéressant à la distribution des organismes dans et en interaction avec leur milieu à travers le temps et l'espace. Dans une première partie, j'étudie à l'aide des données omiques des expéditions Tara Océans et des modèles climatiques la distribution du plancton dans les océans et sa réponse au changement climatique. Il est mis en évidence un partitionnement des océans en provinces génomiques dépendant de la taille des organismes. Ces provinces sont mises en relation avec les paramètres physico-chimiques à l'aide de techniques de machine learning et extrapolées à l'ensemble des océans. Un ensemble de « génomes signatures » pour chaque province est aussi mis en évidence. Une importante réorganisation des provinces en réponses au changement climatique est projetée sur environ 50% des océans d'ici la fin du siècle. D'importants changements en composition du plancton sont projetés et mis en lien avec une diminution de 4% de la pompe à carbone biologique ce qui aurait un effet aggravant sur le changement climatique. Dans une seconde partie, j'étudie les changements de l'expression des gènes du plancton eucaryote le long de la transition entre l'océan Atlantique Nord et le bassin Arctique. Parmi les variables physiques, la température est la variable expliquant le mieux les changements transcriptionnels. L'analyse fonctionnelle des gènes corrélant avec le gradient fort de température révèle une stratégie commune d'acclimatation des algues eucaryotes. Cette stratégie inclut d'importants changements dans la machinerie d'expression génétique mais aussi la surexpression d'un ensemble de fonctions liées à l'acclimatation au froid. A l'échelle des communautés, des processus liés à la maintenance du pool protéique et de la machinerie transcriptionnelle semblent plus actifs dans l'arctique. Dans une troisième partie, je développe un modèle mécanistique basé individu de communauté de phytoplancton structurée par la taille et advectée dans un champ de vitesse imitant la circulation océanique Nord Atlantique. Le modèle représente les principaux groupes de phytoplancton: les cyanobactéries, les algues eucaryotes et les diatomées. Les caractéristiques écologiques de bases résultant de simulations sont présentées : α-diversité, biogéographie et biomasse. Une attention est apportée à l'importance du nombre de particules modélisées et son impact sur la diversité maximale représentée ainsi que l'influence des courants sur les niches écologiques des organismes modélisés. Cette thèse aborde des sujets et enjeux fondamentaux de l'écologie contemporaine et son apport s'inscrit dans la révolution omique du début du XXIème siècle. Une biogéographie génomique du plancton est proposée et sa réponse au réchauffement climatique est explorée. L'analyse omique in situ de la physiologie des algues unicellulaires du plancton à l'échelle de la communauté permet de mettre en évidence leurs capacités d'acclimatation directement dans leur milieu de vie. Enfin, le modèle basé individu du phytoplancton permet d'explorer théoriquement de nombreuses questions écologiques à mettre en lien dans le futur avec l'analyse des données omiques.

Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.

The Deep Arctic Ocean and Fram Strait in CMIP6 Models

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

Arctic sea ice loss has become a symbol of ongoing climate change, yet climate models still struggle to reproduce it accurately, let alone predict it. A reason for this is the increasingly clear role of the ocean, especially that of the “Atlantic layer,” on sea ice processes. We here quantify biases in that Atlantic layer and the Arctic Ocean deeper layers in 14 representative models that participated in phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Compared to observational climatologies and hydrographic profiles, the modeled Atlantic layer core is on average too cold by −0.4°C and too deep by 400 m in the Nansen Basin. The Atlantic layer is too thick, extending to the seafloor in some models. Deep and bottom waters are in contrast too warm by 1.1° and 1.2°C. Furthermore, the modeled properties hardly change throughout the Arctic. We attribute these biases to an inaccurate representation of shelf processes: only three models seem to produce dense water overflows, at too few locations, and these do not sink deep enough. No model compensates with open ocean deep convection. Therefore, the properties are set by the inaccurate volume fluxes through Fram Strait, biased low by up to 6 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10 ⁶ m ³ s ⁻¹ ), but coupled to a too-warm Fram Strait, resulting in a somewhat accurate heat inflow. These fluxes are related to biases in the Nordic seas, themselves previously attributed to inaccurate sea ice extent and atmospheric modes of variability, thus highlighting the need for overall improvements in the different model components and their coupling. Significance Statement Coupled climate models are routinely used for climate change projection and adaptation, but they are only as good as the data used to create them. And in the deep Arctic, those data are scarce. We determine how biased 14 of the most recent models are regarding the deep Arctic Ocean and the Arctic’s only deep gateway, Fram Strait (between Greenland and Svalbard). These models are very biased: too cold where they should be warm, too warm where they should be cold, not stratified enough, not in contact with the surface as they should, moving the wrong way around the Arctic, etc. Some problems are induced by biases in regions outside of the Arctic and/or from the sea ice models.

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

Article

Dec 2022
EARTH-SCI REV

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily digital lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise, potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2022

The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified by salinity in the uppermost layers. This stratification is a key attribute of the region as it acts as an effective barrier for the vertical exchanges of Atlantic Water heat, nutrients, and CO 2 between intermediate depths and the surface of the Eurasian and Amerasian basins (EB and AB). Observations show that from 1970 to 2017, the stratification in the AB has strengthened, whereas, in parts of the EB, the stratification has weakened. The strengthening in the AB is linked to freshening and deepening of the halocline. In the EB, the weakened stratification is associated with salinification and shoaling of the halocline (Atlantification). Simulations from a suite of CMIP6 models project that, under a strong greenhouse-gas forcing scenario (ssp585), the overall surface freshening and warming continue in both basins, but there is a divergence in hydrographic trends in certain regions. Within the AB, there is agreement among the models that the upper layers will become more stratified. However, within the EB, models diverge regarding future stratification. This is due to different balances between trends at the surface and trends at depth, related to Fram Strait fluxes. The divergence affects projections of the future state of Arctic sea ice, as models with the strongest Atlantification project the strongest decline in sea ice volume in the EB. From these simulations, one could conclude that Atlantificaton will not spread eastward into the AB; however, models must be improved to simulate changes in a more intricately stratified EB correctly.

Interactions between the Arctic Mediterranean and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022
OCEANOGRAPHY

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a significant role in the global climate system, and its behavior in a warming climate is a matter of significant concern. The AMOC is thought to be driven largely by ocean heat loss in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, but recent research increasingly emphasizes the importance of the Arctic Mediterranean for the AMOC. In turn, the AMOC may influence the Arctic heat budget through its impact on poleward heat transport. Hence, understanding the processes that link the AMOC and the Arctic is critical for our ability to project how both may evolve in a warming climate. In this paper we review some of the recent research that is shaping our thinking about the AMOC and its two-way interactions with the Arctic.

Arctic Ocean Simulations in the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

Preprint

Full-text available

Oct 2022

Arctic Ocean simulations in 19 global ocean-sea ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) of the CMIP6 are evaluated in this paper. Our results indicate that no significant improvements were achieved in the Arctic Ocean simulations from the previous Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II) to the current OMIP. Large model biases and inter-model spread exist in the simulated mean state of the halocline and Atlantic Water layer in the OMIP models. Most of the OMIP models suffer from too thick and deep Atlantic Water layer, too deep halocline base, and large fresh biases in the halocline. The OMIP models largely agree on the inter-annual and decadal variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater content and volume/heat/freshwater transports through the Arctic Ocean gateways. The models can reproduce observed changes in volume, heat and freshwater transports through the gateways except for the Bering Strait. Overall, the performance of the Arctic Ocean simulations is similar between the CORE2-forced OMIP-1 and JRA55-do-forced OMIP-2.

Climate Change Fosters Competing Effects of Dynamics and Thermodynamics in Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice

Article

May 2022

The fast decline of Arctic sea ice necessitates a stronger focus on understanding the Arctic sea ice predictability and developing advanced forecast methods for all seasons and for pan-Arctic and regional scales. In this study, the operational forecasting system combining an advanced eddy-permitting ocean–sea ice ensemble reanalysis ORAS5 and state-of-the-art seasonal model-based forecasting system SEAS5 is used to investigate effects of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics on seasonal (growth-to-melt) Arctic sea ice predictability in 1993–2020. We demonstrate that thermodynamics (growth/melt) dominates the seasonal evolution of mean sea ice thickness at pan-Arctic and regional scales. The thermodynamics also dominates the seasonal predictability of sea ice thickness at pan-Arctic scale; however, at regional scales, the predictability is dominated by dynamics (advection), although the contribution from ice growth/melt remains perceptible. We show competing influences of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics on the temporal change of ice thickness predictability from 1993–2006 to 2007–20. Over these decades, there was increasing predictability due to growth/melt, attributed to increased winter ocean heat flux in both Eurasian and Amerasian basins, and decreasing predictability due to advection. Our results demonstrate an increasing impact of advection on seasonal sea ice predictability as the region of interest becomes smaller, implying that correct modeling of sea ice drift is crucial for developing reliable regional sea ice predictions. This study delivers important information about sea ice predictability in the “new Arctic” conditions. It increases awareness regarding sea ice state and implementation of sea ice forecasts for various scientific and practical needs that depend on accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts.

A full year of turbulence measurements from a drift campaign in the Arctic Ocean 2019–2020

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022

Ocean turbulent mixing is a key process in the global climate system, regulating ocean circulation and the uptake and redistribution of heat, carbon, nutrients, oxygen and other tracers. In polar oceans, turbulent heat transport additionally affects the sea ice mass balance. Due to the inaccessibility of polar regions, direct observations of turbulent mixing are sparse in the Arctic Ocean. During the year-long drift expedition “Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate” (MOSAiC) from September 2019 to September 2020, we obtained an unprecedented data set of vertical profiles of turbulent dissipation rate and water column properties, including oxygen concentration and fluorescence. Nearly 1,700 profiles, covering the upper ocean down to approximately 400 m, were collected in sets of 3 or more consecutive profiles every day, and complemented with several intensive sampling periods. This data set allows for the systematic assessment of upper ocean mixing in the Arctic, and the quantification of turbulent heat and nutrient fluxes, and can help to better constrain turbulence parameterizations in ocean circulation models.

Mooring Measurements of Anadyr Current Nitrate, Phosphate, and Silicate Enable Updated Bering Strait Nutrient Flux Estimates

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022
GEOPHYS RES LETT

In situ nutrient concentration data and salinity‐nutrient parameterizations established at Anadyr Strait from June 2017 to June 2018 are used to estimate monthly Pacific‐to‐Arctic fluxes of nitrate, phosphate, and silicate through Bering Strait over 1997–2019. In most months our estimates rely on measurements made from mooring‐based sensors and whole water samples, while over May–August the basis is shipboard hydrography. We find annually averaged Bering Strait fluxes of 16 ± 6, 1.5 ± 0.5, and 30 ± 11 kmol/s for nitrate, phosphate, and silicate, respectively, with inter‐annual variability ±30% of the mean. Maximum fluxes occur in April, exceeding the annual average by ∼50%, while minimum fluxes occur in December. Annually averaged fluxes estimated here are ∼50% higher than previous estimates. Significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in phosphate and silicate fluxes are found over 1998–2018, but not nitrate. However, it is unclear if these trend results are due to differences in draw‐down or limitations of the salinity‐nutrient parameterizations.

Divergence in climate model projections of future Arctic Ocean stratification and hydrography

Preprint

May 2022

The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified by salinity gradients in the uppermost layers. This stratification is a key attribute of the region as it acts as an effective barrier for the vertical exchanges of Atlantic Water heat, nutrients, and CO2 between intermediate depths and the surface of the Eurasian and Amerasian basins (EB and AB). Observations show that from 1970 to 2017, the stratification in the AB has strengthened, whereas, in parts of the EB, the stratification has weakened. The strengthening in the AB is linked to a freshening and deepening of the halocline. In the EB, the weakened stratification is linked to advection of saltier halocline waters and is associated with a shoaling of the halocline (Atlantification). Future simulations from a suite of CMIP6 models project that, under a strong greenhouse-gas forcing scenario (ssp585), the overall surface freshening and warming in both basins continue, but there is a spread in hydrographic trends across the models with even opposite trends in certain regions. Within the AB, there is agreement among the models that the upper layers will become more stratified. However, within the EB models diverge regarding future stratification. The divergence is due to different balances between trends in the upper ocean, related to surface freshwater input, and trends at depth, related to fluxes through Fram Strait. From these simulations, one could conclude that Atlantificaton will not spread eastward into the AB; however, we need to improve models to simulate tendencies in a more delicately stratified EB correctly.

Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2022

Michael Edgeworth McIntyre

This essay takes a brief personal look at aspects of the climate problem. The emphasis will be on some of the greatest scientific uncertainties, as suggested by what is known about past as well as present climates, including tipping points that likely occurred in the past and might occur in the near future. In the current state of knowledge and understanding, there is massive uncertainty about such tipping points. For one thing, there might or might not be a domino-like succession, or cascade, of tipping points that ultimately sends the climate system into an Eocene-like state, after an uncertain number of centuries. Sea levels would then be about 70 m higher than today, and surface storminess would likely reach extremes well outside human experience. Such worst-case scenarios are highly speculative. However, there is no way to rule them out with complete confidence. Credible assessments are outside the scope of current climate prediction models. So there has never in human history been a stronger case for applying the precautionary principle. Today there is no room for doubt—even from a purely financial perspective—about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions urgently and drastically, far more than is possible through so-called “offsetting”.

Geographical inhomogeneity and temporal variability of mixing property and driving mechanism in the Arctic Ocean

Article

Mar 2022

Upper ocean mixing plays a key role in the atmosphere-ocean heat transfer and sea ice extent and thickness via modulating the upper ocean temperatures in the Arctic Ocean. Observations of diffusivities in the Arctic that directly indicate the ocean mixing properties are sparse. Therefore, the spatiotemporal pattern and magnitude of diapycnal diffusivities and kinetic energy dissipation rates in the upper Arctic Ocean are important for atmosphere-ocean heat transfers and sea ice changes. These were first estimated from the Ice-Tethered Profilers dataset (2005–2019) using a strain-based fine-scale parameterization. The resultant mixing properties showed significant geographical inhomogeneity and temporal variability. Diapycnal diffusivities and dissipation rates in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean were stronger than those on the Pacific side. Mixing in the Atlantic sector increased significantly during the observation period; whereas in the Pacific sector, it weakened before 2011 and then strengthened. Potential impact factors include wind, sea ice, near inertial waves, and stratification, while their relative contributions vary between the two sectors of the Arctic Ocean. In the Atlantic sector, turbulent mixing dominated, while in the Pacific sector, turbulent mixing was inhibited by strong stratification prior to 2011, and is able to overcome the stratification gradually after 2014. The vertical turbulent heat flux constantly increased in the Atlantic sector year by year, while it decreased in the Pacific sector post 2010. The estimated heat flux variability induced by enhanced turbulent mixing is expected to continue to diminish sea ice in the near future.

An Algorithm to Bias-Correct and Transform Arctic SMAP-Derived Skin Salinities into Bulk Surface Salinities

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022

An algorithmic approach, based on satellite-derived sea-surface (“skin”) salinities (SSS), is proposed to correct for errors in SSS retrievals and convert these skin salinities into comparable in-situ (“bulk”) salinities for the top-5 m of the subpolar and Arctic Oceans. In preparation for routine assimilation into operational ocean forecast models, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite Level-2 SSS observations are transformed using Argo float data from the top-5 m of the ocean to address the mismatch between the skin depth of satellite L-band SSS measurements (∼1 cm) and the thickness of top model layers (typically at least 1 m). Separate from the challenge of Argo float availability in most of the subpolar and Arctic Oceans, satellite-derived SSS products for these regions currently are not suitable for assimilation for a myriad of other reasons, including erroneous ancillary air-sea forcing/flux products. In the subpolar and Arctic Oceans, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the SMAP SSS product and several in-situ salinity observational data sets for the top-5 m is greater than 1.5 pss (Practical Salinity Scale), which can be larger than their temporal variability. Thus, we train a machine-learning algorithm (called a Generalized Additive Model) on in-situ salinities from the top-5 m and an independent air-sea forcing/flux product to convert the SMAP SSS into bulk-salinities, correct biases, and quantify their standard errors. The RMSE between these corrected bulk-salinities and in-situ measurements is less than 1 pss in open ocean regions. Barring persistently problematic data near coasts and ice-pack edges, the corrected bulk-salinity data are in better agreement with in-situ data than their SMAP SSS equivalent.

On the Interplay between Freshwater Content and Hydrographic Conditions in the Arctic Ocean in the 1990s–2010s

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022

We investigated liquid freshwater content (FWC) in the upper 100 m layer of the Arctic Ocean using oceanographic observations covering the period from 1990 through 2018. Our analysis revealed two opposite tendencies in freshwater balance—the freshening in the Canada Basin at the mean rate of 2.04 ± 0.64 m/decade and the salinization of the eastern Eurasian Basin (EB) at the rate of 0.96 ± 0.86 m/decade. In line with this, we found that the Arctic Ocean gained an additional 19,000 ± 1000 km3 of freshwater over the 1990–2018 period. FWC changes in the EB since 1990 demonstrate an intermittent pattern with the most rapid decrease (from ~5.5 to 3.8 m) having occurred between 2000 and 2005. The 1990–2018 FWC changes in the upper ocean were concurrent with prominent changes of the thermohaline properties of the intermediate Atlantic Water (AW)—the main source of salt and heat for the Arctic Basin. In the eastern EB, we found a 50 m rise of the upper AW boundary accompanied by a ~0.5 °C increase in the AW core temperature. The close relationship (R > 0.7 ± 0.2) between available potential energy in the layer above the AW and FWC in the eastern EB suggests a positive feedback mechanism that links the amount of freshwater with the intensity of vertical heat and salt exchange in the halocline and upper AW layers. Together with other mechanisms of Atlantification, this feedback creates a complex picture of interactions behind the observed changes in the hydrological and ice regimes of the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean.

Increasing Nutrient Fluxes and Mixing Regime Changes in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Plain Language Summary Microscopic algae, growing in the sunlit surface layer of the ocean, provide food for other species and form the basis of the ecosystem. In the Arctic Ocean, their growth is limited by the availability of nutrients. The main source of these nutrients are waters entering from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. These nutrient‐rich waters reside far below the sunlit zone, and vertical mixing is required to bring them upwards to support algal growth. With rapidly declining summer sea ice and changes in the ocean layering, these mixing processes might substantially change. Changes are considered most likely in the region of the steep slopes in the Siberian Seas. To investigate this, we analyze nutrient and mixing measurements in this region from 2007, 2008, and 2018. In 2018, we observed strong mixing, which is connected to ice free conditions and a process that has only recently been described. This strong mixing only happens at the narrow, steep slope region, but might supply the same amount of nutrients to the surface zone as the weak mixing over the much larger area of the deep basins.

Borealization of the Arctic Ocean in Response to Anomalous Advection From Sub-Arctic Seas

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2020

An important yet still not well documented aspect of recent changes in the Arctic Ocean is associated with the advection of anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters and biota into the polar basins, a process which we refer to as borealization. Using a 37-year archive of observations (1981–2017) we demonstrate dramatically contrasting regional responses to atlantification (that part of borealization related to progression of anomalies from the Atlantic sector of sub-Arctic seas into the Arctic Ocean) and pacification (the counterpart of atlantification associated with influx of anomalous Pacific waters). Particularly, we show strong salinification of the upper Eurasian Basin since 2000, with attendant reductions in stratification, and potentially altered nutrient fluxes and primary production. These changes are closely related to upstream conditions. In contrast, pacification is strongly manifested in the Amerasian Basin by the anomalous influx of Pacific waters, creating conditions favorable for increased heat and freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre halocline and expansion of Pacific species into the Arctic interior. Here, changes in the upper (overlying) layers are driven by local Arctic atmospheric processes resulting in stronger wind/ice/ocean coupling, increased convergence within the Beaufort Gyre, a thickening of the fresh surface layer, and a deepening of the nutricline and deep chlorophyll maximum. Thus, a divergent (Eurasian Basin) gyre responds altogether differently than does a convergent (Amerasian Basin) gyre to climate forcing. Available geochemical data indicate a general decrease in nutrient concentrations Arctic-wide, except in the northern portions of the Makarov and Amundsen Basins and northern Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin. Thus, changes in the circulation pathways of specific water masses, as well as the utilization of nutrients in upstream regions, may control the availability of nutrients in the Arctic Ocean. Model-based evaluation of the trajectory of the Arctic climate system into the future suggests that Arctic borealization will continue under scenarios of global warming. Results from this synthesis further our understanding of the Arctic Ocean’s complex and sometimes non-intuitive Arctic response to climate forcing by identifying new feedbacks in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system in which borealization plays a key role.

Laboratory Experiments on Internal Solitary Waves in Ice‐Covered Waters

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2019
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Internal solitary waves (ISWs) propagating in a stably stratified two‐layer fluid in which the upper boundary condition changes from open water to ice are studied for grease, level, and nilas ice. The ISW‐induced current at the surface is capable of transporting the ice in the horizontal direction. In the level ice case, the transport speed of, relatively long ice floes, nondimensionalized by the wave speed is linearly dependent on the length of the ice floe nondimensionalized by the wave length. Measures of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation under the ice are comparable to those at the wave density interface. Moreover, in cases where the ice floe protrudes into the pycnocline, interaction with the ice edge can cause the ISW to break or even be destroyed by the process. The results suggest that interaction between ISWs and sea ice may be an important mechanism for dissipation of ISW energy in the Arctic Ocean.

Winter storms accelerate the demise of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean

Article

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Jun 2019

A large retreat of sea-ice in the ‘stormy’ Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean has become evident through a series of record minima for the winter maximum sea-ice extent since 2015. Results from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, a five-month-long (Jan-Jun) drifting ice station in first and second year pack-ice north of Svalbard, showcase how sea-ice in this region is frequently affected by passing winter storms. Here we synthesise the interdisciplinary N-ICE2015 dataset, including independent observations of the atmosphere, snow, sea-ice, ocean, and ecosystem. We build upon recent results and illustrate the different mechanisms through which winter storms impact the coupled Arctic sea-ice system. These short-lived and episodic synoptic-scale events transport pulses of heat and moisture into the Arctic, which temporarily reduce radiative cooling and henceforth ice growth. Cumulative snowfall from each sequential storm deepens the snow pack and insulates the sea-ice, further inhibiting ice growth throughout the remaining winter season. Strong winds fracture the ice cover, enhance ocean-ice-atmosphere heat fluxes, and make the ice more susceptible to lateral melt. In conclusion, the legacy of Arctic winter storms for sea-ice and the ice-associated ecosystem in the Atlantic Sector lasts far beyond their short lifespan.

Non-Stationary Relationship between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2019
GEOPHYS RES LETT

Plain Language Summary European winter weather is heavily influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The so‐called positive NAO brings mild and wet conditions to northern Europe in winter, and the negative NAO tends to be cold and dry. Scientists attempt to forecast the NAO in advance by one of two ways: using complex weather forecast models or using relatively simple statistical equations. Although statistical methods can outperform more complicated forecast models, they assume that predictor relationships do not change over time. This assumption is not always valid. In this study we examined the relationship over time between autumn sea ice in the Barents‐Kara Seas and the winter NAO. In recent decades, a strong relationship has been observed whereby especially reduced autumn sea ice often precedes negative NAO in the following winter. When we looked further back in time, however, we found that the ice‐NAO relationship has been highly changeable and sometimes, the complete opposite to that seen recently. An analysis of hundreds of simulations from multiple climate models confirms that the ice‐NAO relationship varies a lot, just due to natural climate variability. Our results suggest it is unwise to make predictions of the winter NAO based on autumn sea ice.

Heat, salt, and volume transports in the eastern Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean from 2 years of mooring observations

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2018
OCEAN SCI

This study discusses along-slope volume, heat, and salt transports derived from observations collected in 2013–2015 using a cross-slope array of six moorings ranging from 250 to 3900 m in the eastern Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean. These observations demonstrate that in the upper 780 m layer, the along-slope boundary current advected, on average, 5.1±0.1 Sv of water, predominantly in the eastward (shallow-to-right) direction. Monthly net volume transports across the Laptev Sea slope vary widely, from ∼ 0.3±0.8 in April 2014 to ∼ 9.9±0.8 Sv in June 2014; 3.1±0.1 Sv (or 60 %) of the net transport was associated with warm and salty intermediate-depth Atlantic Water (AW). Calculated heat transport for 2013–2015 (relative to −1.8 °C) was 46.0±1.7 TW, and net salt transport (relative to zero salinity) was 172±6 Mkg s−1. Estimates for AW heat and salt transports were 32.7±1.3 TW (71 % of net heat transport) and 112±4 Mkg s−1 (65 % of net salt transport). The variability of currents explains ∼ 90 % of the variability in the heat and salt transports. The remaining ∼ 10 % is controlled by temperature and salinity anomalies together with the temporal variability of the AW layer thickness. The annual mean volume transports decreased by 25 % from 5.8±0.2 Sv in 2013–2014 to 4.4±0.2 Sv in 2014–2015, suggesting that changes in the transports at interannual and longer timescales in the eastern EB may be significant.

Structure and dynamics of mesoscale eddies over the Laptev Sea continental slope in the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2018
OCEAN SCI

Heat fluxes steered by mesoscale eddies may be a significant, but still not quantified, source of heat to the surface mixed layer and sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, as well as a source of nutrients for enhancing seasonal productivity in the near-surface layers. Here we use 4 years (2007–2011) of velocity and hydrography records from a moored profiler over the Laptev Sea slope and 15 months (2008–2009) of acoustic Doppler current profiler data from a nearby mooring to investigate the structure and dynamics of eddies at the continental margin of the eastern Eurasian Basin. Typical eddy scales are radii of the order of 10km, heights of 600m, and maximum velocities of ∼ 0.1ms⁻¹. Eddies are approximately equally divided between cyclonic and anticyclonic polarizations, contrary to prior observations from the deep basins and along the Lomonosov Ridge. Eddies are present in the mooring records about 20%–25% of the time, taking about 1 week to pass through the mooring at an average frequency of about one eddy per month. We found that the eddies observed are formed in two distinct regions – near Fram Strait, where the western branch of Atlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic Ocean, and near Severnaya Zemlya, where the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches of the AW inflow merge. These eddies, embedded in the Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current, carry anomalous water properties along the eastern Arctic continental slope. The enhanced diapycnal mixing that we found within EB eddies suggests a potentially important role for eddies in the vertical redistribution of heat in the Arctic Ocean interior.

Stability of the arctic halocline: A new indicator of arctic climate change

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2018
ENVIRON RES LETT

In this study, we propose a new Arctic climate change indicator based on the strength of the Arctic halocline, a porous barrier between the cold and fresh upper ocean and ice and the warm intermediate Atlantic Water of the Arctic Ocean. This indicator provides a measure of the vulnerability of sea ice to upward heat fluxes from the ocean interior, as well as the efficiency of mixing affecting carbon and nutrient exchanges. It utilizes the well-accepted calculation of available potential energy (APE), which integrates anomalies of potential density from the surface downwards through the surface mixed layer to the base of the halocline. Regional APE contrasts are striking and show a strengthening of stratification in the Amerasian Basin (AB) and an overall weakening in the Eurasian Basin (EB). In contrast, Arctic-wide time series of APE is not reflective of these inter-basin contrasts. The use of two time series of APE - AB and EB - as an indicator of Arctic Ocean climate change provides a powerful tool for detecting and monitoring transition of the Arctic Ocean towards a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. This new, straightforward climate indicator can be used to inform both the scientific community and the broader public about changes occurring in the Arctic Ocean interior and their potential impacts on the state of the ice cover, the productivity of marine ecosystems and mid-latitude weather.

Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: Losses and coupled variability (1958-2018)

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2018
ENVIRON RES LETT

Ronald Kwok

Large-scale changes in Arctic sea ice thickness, volume and multiyear sea ice (MYI) coverage with available measurements from submarine sonars, satellite altimeters (ICESat and CryoSat-2), and satellite scatterometers are summarized. The submarine record spans the period between 1958 and 2000, the satellite altimeter records between 2003 and 2018, and the scatterometer records between 1999 and 2017. Regional changes in ice thickness (since 1958) and within the data release area of the Arctic Ocean, previously reported by Kwok and Rothrock (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L15501), have been updated to include the 8 years of CryoSat-2 (CS-2) retrievals. Between the pre-1990 submarine period (1958-1976) and the CS-2 period (2011-2018) the average thickness near the end of the melt season, in six regions, decreased by 2.0 m or some 66% over six decades. Within the data release area (∼38% of the Arctic Ocean) of submarine ice draft, the thinning of ∼1.75 m in winter since 1980 (maximum thickness of 3.64 m in the regression analysis) has not changed significantly; the mean thickness over the CS-2 period is ∼2 m. The 15 year satellite record depicts losses in sea ice volume at 2870 km 3 /decade and 5130 km 3 /decade in winter (February-March) and fall (October-November), respectively: more moderate trends compared to the sharp decreases over the ICESat period, where the losses were weighted by record-setting melt in 2007. Over the scatterometer record (1999-2017), the Arctic has lost more than 2×10 6 km 2 of MYI-a decrease of more than 50%; MYI now covers less than one-third of the Arctic Ocean. Independent MYI coverage and volume records co-vary in time, the MYI area anomalies explain ∼85% of the variance in the anomalies in Arctic sea ice volume. If losses of MYI continue, Arctic thickness/volume will be controlled by seasonal ice, suggesting that the thickness/volume trends will be more moderate (as seen here) but more sensitive to climate forcing.

Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2018
ENVIRON RES LETT

The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO₂ emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m² throughout winter to more than 3 m² throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO₂ emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO₂ emissions.

Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice losses at the basin margins

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2018

Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming. Heat absorption at the basin margins and its subsequent accumulation in the ocean interior, therefore, have consequences for Beaufort Gyre sea ice beyond the summer season.

Observed Atlantification of the Barents Sea Causes the Polar Front to Limit the Expansion of Winter Sea Ice

Article

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Jul 2018

Barents Sea Water (BSW) is formed from Atlantic Water that is cooled through atmospheric heat loss and freshened through seasonal sea ice melt. In the eastern Barents Sea, the BSW and fresher, colder Arctic Water meet at the surface along the Polar Front (PF). Despite its importance in setting the northern limit of BSW ventilation, the PF has been poorly documented, mostly eluding detection by observational surveys that avoid seasonal sea ice. In this study, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) observations are used in addition to a temperature and salinity climatology to examine the location and structure of the PF and characterize its variability over the period 1985-2016. It is shown that the PF is independent of the position of the sea ice edge and is a shelf slope current constrained by potential vorticity. The main driver of interannual variability in SST is the variability of the Atlantic Water temperature, which has significantly increased since 2005. The SST gradient associated with the PF has also increased after 2005, preventing sea ice from extending south of the front during winter in recent years. The disappearance of fresh, seasonal sea ice melt south of the PF has led to a significant increase in BSW salinity and density. As BSW forms the majority of Arctic Intermediate Water, changes to BSW properties may have far-reaching impacts for Arctic Ocean circulation and climate.

Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2018
Nat. Clim. Change.

The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades, with greatest temperature increases observed in the northern Barents Sea. The warming signatures are not constrained to the atmosphere, but extend throughout the water column. Here, using a compilation of hydrographic observations from 1970 to 2016, we investigate the link between changing sea-ice import and this Arctic warming hotspot. A sharp increase in ocean temperature and salinity is apparent from the mid-2000s, which we show can be linked to a recent decline in sea-ice import and a corresponding loss in freshwater, leading to weakened ocean stratification, enhanced vertical mixing and increased upward fluxes of heat and salt that prevent sea-ice formation and increase ocean heat content. Thus, the northern Barents Sea may soon complete the transition from a cold and stratified Arctic to a warm and well-mixed Atlantic-dominated climate regime. Such a shift would have unknown consequences for the Barents Sea ecosystem, including ice-associated marine mammals and commercial fish stocks.

Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2018

The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s.

Structure and variability of the boundary current in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2015
DEEP-SEA RES PT I

The Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current (ACBC) transports a vast amount of mass and heat around cyclonic gyres of the deep basins, acting as a narrow, topographically-controlled flow, confined to the continental margins. Current observations during 2002–2011 at seven moorings along the major Atlantic Water (AW) pathway, complemented by an extensive collection of measured temperatures and salinities as well as results of state-of-the-art numerical modeling, have been used to examine the spatial structure and temporal variability of the ACBC within the Eurasian Basin (EB). These observations and modeling results suggest a gradual, six-fold decrease of boundary current speed (from 24 to 4 cm/s) on the route between Fram Strait and the Lomonosov Ridge, accompanied by a transformation of the vertical flow structure from mainly barotropic in Fram Strait to baroclinic between the area north of Spitsbergen and the central Laptev Sea continental slope. The relative role of density-driven currents in maintaining AW circulation increases with the progression of the ACBC eastward from Fram Strait, so that baroclinic ACBC forcing dominates over the barotropic in the eastern EB. Mooring records have revealed that waters within the AW and the cold halocline layers circulate in roughly the same direction in the eastern EB. The seasonal signal, meanwhile, is the most powerful mode of variability in the EB, contributing up to ∼70% of the total variability in currents (resolved by moorings records) within the eastern EB. Seasonal signal amplitudes for current speed and AW temperature both decrease with the eastward progression of AW flow from source regions, and demonstrate strong interannual modulation. In the 2000s, the state of the EB (e.g., circulation pattern, thermohaline conditions, and freshwater balance) experienced remarkable changes. Results showing anomalous circulation patterns for an extended period of 30 months in 2008–10 for the eastern EB, and a two-core AW temperature structure that emerged in this region of the Arctic Ocean in the most recent decade, suggest a shift of the EB toward a new, more dynamic state. This also likely suggests that the EB interior will become more susceptible to future climate change. Evaluating properties of the ACBC, its temporal variability at time scales from a season to several years, and possible governing mechanisms, this study contributes to a better understanding of Arctic Ocean circulation.

Tide-mediated warming of Arctic halocline by Atlantic heat fluxes over rough topography

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2015

The largest oceanic heat input to the Arctic Ocean results from inflowing Atlantic water. This inflowing water is warmer than it has been in the past 2,000 years. Yet the fate of this heat remains uncertain, partly because the water is relatively saline, and thus dense: it therefore enters the Arctic Ocean at intermediate depths and is separated from surface waters by stratification. Vertical mixing is generally weak within the Arctic Ocean basins, with very modest heat fluxes (0.05–0.3 W m−2) arising largely from double diffusion. However, geographically limited observations have indicated substantially enhanced turbulent mixing rates over rough topography. Here we present pan-Arctic microstructure measurements of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation. Our measurements further demonstrate that the enhanced continental slope dissipation rate, and by implication vertical mixing, varies significantly with both topographic steepness and longitude. Furthermore, our observations show that dissipation is insensitive to sea-ice conditions. We identify tides as the main energy source that supports the enhanced dissipation, which generates vertical heat fluxes of more than 50 W m−2. We suggest that the increased transfer of momentum from the atmosphere to the ocean as Arctic sea ice declines is likely to lead to an expansion of mixing hotspots in the future Arctic Ocean.

Toward Quantifying the Increasing Role of Oceanic Heat in Sea Ice Loss in the New Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2015

The loss of Arctic sea ice has emerged as a leading signal of global warming. This, together with acknowledged impacts on other components of the Earth system, has led to the term “The New Arctic”. Global coupled climate models predict that ice loss will continue through the twenty-first century, with implications for governance, economics, security and global weather. A wide range in model projections reflects the complex, highly coupled interactions between the polar atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, including teleconnections to lower latitudes. This paper summarizes our present understanding of how heat reaches the ice base from the original sources – inflows of Atlantic and Pacific Water, river discharge, and summer sensible heat and shortwave radiative fluxes at the ocean/ice surface – and speculates on how such processes may change in the New Arctic. The complexity of the coupled Arctic system, and the logistic and technological challenges of working in the Arctic Ocean, requires a coordinated interdisciplinary and international program that will not only improve understanding of this critical component of global climate but will also provide opportunities to develop human resources with the skills required to tackle related problems in complex climate systems. We propose a research strategy with components that include: 1) improved mapping of the upper and mid-depth Arctic Ocean, 2) enhanced quantification of important process, 3) expanded long-term monitoring at key heat-flux locations, and 4) development of numerical capabilities that focus on parameterization of heat flux mechanisms and their interactions.

Observations of a diapycnal shortcut to adiabatic upwelling of Antarctic Circumpolar Deep Water

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2014

In the Southern Ocean, small-scale turbulence causes diapycnal mixing which influences important water mass transformations, in turn impacting large-scale ocean transports such as the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), a key controller of Earth'sclimate. We present direct observations of mixing over the Antarctic continental slope between water masses that are part of the Southern Ocean MOC. A 12-hour time-series of microstructure turbulence measurements, hydrography and velocity observations off Elephant Island, north of the Antarctic Peninsula, reveals two concurrent bursts of elevated dissipation of O(10–6Wkg–1, resulting in heat fluxes ~10 times higher than basin-integrated Drake Passage estimates. This occurs across the boundary between adjacent adiabatic upwelling and downwelling overturning cells. Ray tracing and topography show mixing between 300-400 m consistent with the breaking of locally-generated internal tidal waves. Since similar conditions extend to much of the Antarctic continental slope where these water masses outcrop, their transformation may contribute significantly to upwelling.

At the rainbow's end: High productivity fueled by winter upwelling along an Arctic shelf

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2015
POLAR BIOL

Herein we document findings from a unique scientific expedition north of Svalbard in the middle of the polar night in January 2012, where we observed an ice edge north of 82°N coupled with pronounced upwelling. The area north of Svalbard has probably been ice-covered during winter in the period from approximately 1790 until the 1980s, a period during which heavy ice conditions have prevailed in the Barents Sea and Svalbard waters. However, recent winters have been characterized by midwinter open water conditions on the shelf, concomitant with northeasterly along-shelf winds in January 2012. The resulting northward Ekman transport resulted in a strong upwelling of Atlantic Water along the shelf. We suggest that a reduction in sea ice and the upwelling of nutrient-rich waters seen in the winter of 2012 created conditions similar to those that occurred during the peak of the European whaling period (1690–1790) and that this combination of physical features was in fact the driving force behind the high primary and secondary production of diatoms and Calanus spp., which sustained the large historical stocks of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in Arctic waters near Spitsbergen.

One More Step Toward a Warmer Arctic

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2005

This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring-based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian% Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub-polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse-like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher-latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took 1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional approx. 4.5-5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.

Winter Convection Transports Atlantic Water Heat to the Surface Layer in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2013

A one year (2009–2010) record of temperature and salinity profiles from Ice Tethered Profiler (ITP) buoys in the Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean is used to quantify the flux of heat from the upper pycnocline to the surface mixed layer. The upper pycnocline in the central EB is fed by the upward flux of heat from the intermediate depth (~150-900 m) Atlantic Water (AW) layer; this flux is estimated to be ~1 W/m2 averaged over one year. Release of heat from the upper pycnocline, through the cold halocline layer to the surface mixed layer is, however, seasonally intensified, occurring more strongly in winter. This seasonal heat loss averages ~3-4 W/m2 between January and April, reducing the rate of new winter sea-ice formation. We hypothesize that the winter heat loss is driven by mixing caused by a combination of brine-driven convection associated with sea-ice formation and larger vertical velocity shear below the base of the surface mixed layer (SML), enhanced by atmospheric storms and the seasonal reduction in density difference between the SML and underlying pycnocline.

Vertical mixing at intermediate depths in the Arctic boundary current

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2009

Microstructure and hydrographic observations, during September 2007 in the boundary current on the East Siberian continental slope, document upper ocean stratification and along-stream water mass changes. A thin warm surface layer overrides a shallow halocline characterized by a ~40-m thick temperature minimum layer beginning at ~30 m depth. Below the halocline, well-defined thermohaline diffusive staircases extended downwards to warm Atlantic Water intrusions found at 200-800 m depth. Observed turbulent eddy kinetic energy dissipations are extremely low ($\epsilon$ < 10-6 W m-3), such that double diffusive convection dominates the vertical mixing in the upper-ocean. The diffusive convection heat fluxes F H dc ~1 W m-2, are an order of magnitude too small to account for the observed along-stream cooling of the boundary current. Our results implicate circulation patterns and the influence of shelf waters in the evolution of the boundary current waters.

Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere

Article

Full-text available

Jan 1980

This study investigates the response of a global model of the climate to the quadrupling of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The model consists of (1) a general circulation model of the atmosphere, (2) a heat and water balance model of the continents, and (3) a simple mixed layer model of the oceans. It has a global computational domain and realistic geography. For the computation of radiative transfer, the seasonal variation of insolation is imposed at the top of the model atmosphere, and the fixed distribution of cloud cover is prescribed as a function of latitude and of height. It is found that with some exceptions, the model succeeds in reproducing the large-scale characteristics of seasonal and geographical variation of the observed atmospheric temperature. The climatic effect of a CO2 increase is determined by comparing statistical equilibrium states of the model atmosphere with a normal concentration and with a 4 times the normal concentration of CO2 in the air. It is found that the warming of the model atmosphere resulting from CO2 increase has significant seasonal and latitudinal variation. Because of the absence of an albedo feedback mechanism, the warming over the Antarctic continent is somewhat less than the warming in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Over the Arctic Ocean and its surroundings, the warming is much larger in winter than summer, thereby reducing the amplitude of seasonal temperature variation. It is concluded that this seasonal asymmetry in the warming results from the reduction in the coverage and thickness of the sea ice. The warming of the model atmosphere results in an enrichment of the moisture content in the air and an increase in the poleward moisture transport. The additional moisture is picked up from the tropical ocean and is brought to high latitudes where both precipitation and runoff increase throughout the year. Further, the time of rapid snowmelt and maximum runoff becomes earlier.

Internal Waves and Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zone near the Yermak Plateau

Article

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Jul 2010

Observations were made of oceanic currents, hydrography, and microstructure in the southern Yermak Plateau in summer 2007. The location is in the marginal ice zone at the Arctic Front northwest of Svalbard, where the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) carries the warm Atlantic Water into the Arctic Ocean. Time series of approximately 1-day duration from five stations (upper 520 m) and of an 8-day duration from a mooring are analyzed to describe the characteristics of internal waves and turbulent mixing. The spectral composition of the internal-wave field over the southern Yermak Plateau is 0.1-0.3 times the midlatitude levels and compares with the most energetic levels in the central Arctic. Dissipation rate and eddy diffusivity below the pycnocline increase from the noise level on the cold side of the front by one order of magnitude on the warm side, where 100-m-thick layers with average diffusivities of 5 3 10-5 m2 s-1 lead to heat loss from the Atlantic Water of 2-4 W m-2. Dissipation in the upper 150 m is well above the noise level at all stations, but strong stratification at the cold side of the front prohibits mixing across the pycnocline. Close to the shelf, at the core of the Svalbard branch of the WSC, diffusivity increases by another factor of 3-6. Here, nearbottom mixing removes 15 W m-2 of heat from the Atlantic layer. Internal-wave activity and mixing show variability related to topography and hydrography; thus, the path of the WSC will affect the cooling and freshening of the Atlantic inflow. When generalized to the Arctic Ocean, diapycnal mixing away from abyssal plains can be significant for the heat budget. Around the Yermak Plateau, it is of sufficient magnitude to influence heat anomaly pulses entering the Arctic Ocean; however, diapycnal mixing alone is unlikely to be significant for regional cooling of the WSC.

Effective Diffusivities Within Oceanic Thermohaline Staircases

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Jan 1984

Dan E Kelley

A scale for the thickness of layers in regular ``diffusive''-type thermohaline staircases, derived from dimensional analysis, is found to collapse oceanic data. Combining this scale with laboratory-derived double-diffusive flux laws, we formulate effective diffusivities for salt, heat, and density. The diffusivities depend on the Turner number Rrho, but are independent of the brunt-Vaisala frequency. For Rrho near 1 the diffusivities for salt and heat are approximately equal (~=10-4 m2s-1). They decrease roughly as Rrho-4 and Rrho-2, respectively, over the oceanic range 1

Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007

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Jun 2008
GEOPHYS RES LETT

1] The summer extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, widely recognized as an indicator of climate change, has been declining for the past few decades reaching a record minimum in September 2007. The causes of the dramatic loss have implications for the future trajectory of the Arctic sea ice cover. Ice mass balance observations demonstrate that there was an extraordinarily large amount of melting on the bottom of the ice in the Beaufort Sea in the summer of 2007. Calculations indicate that solar heating of the upper ocean was the primary source of heat for this observed enhanced Beaufort Sea bottom melting. An increase in the open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice – albedo feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.

Weak Vertical Diffusion Allows Maintenance of Cold Halocline in the Central Arctic

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Jan 2009

Ilker Fer

In spring preceding the record minimum summer ice cover detailed microstructure measurements were made from drifting pack ice in the Arctic Ocean, 110 km from the North Pole. Profiles of hydrography, shear, and temperature microstructure collected in the upper water column covering the core of the Atlantic Water are analyzed to determine the diapycnal eddy diffusivity, the eddy diffusivity for heat, and the turbulent flux of heat. Turbulence in the bulk of the cold halocline layer was not strong enough to generate significant buoyancy flux and mixing. Resulting turbulent heat flux across the upper cold halocline was not significantly different than zero. The results show that the low levels of eddy diffusivity in the upper cold halocline lead to small vertical turbulent transport of heat, thereby allowing the maintenance of the cold halocline in the central Arctic.

Arctic Ocean Warming Contributes to Reduced Polar Ice Cap

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Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

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