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Herndon, J. M. (2020).!True Science for Government Leaders and Educators: The Main Cause of Global Warming. Advances in Social
Sciences Research Journal, 7(7) 106-114.
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T'LP,/"(=)Global! warming;! Climate! change;! Particulate! pollution;! Aerosol!
particulates;!Geoengineering.!
!
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Climate! change,! sometimes! called! global! warming,! is! currently! a! high-profile! subject! of! public!
debate,!and! a!matter! of!grave! concern!for! government!leaders! and!educators.! Those!individuals!
ought!to! be! able!to!rely! on! trained!scientists! for! guidance,!for!true! understanding,! but!there! is! a!
problem.!Science!has!become!tainted!by!politics.!That!was!not!always!the!case.!
!
During! the! first! half! of! the! 20th! century,! when! important! discoveries! were! made! that! underpin!
modern!electronics!technology,!there!was!virtually!no!government!support!for!science.!The!science!
community!was!small,!but!disciplined.!New!ideas!were!discussed!and!debated,!and,!if!unable!to!be!
refuted,!were!acknowledged![1].!This!is!the!way!science!–!real!science!–!should!function.!After!World!
War!II,!government!support!for!civilian!science!burgeoned.!Unfortunately,!the!mechanisms!put!in!
place! for! administrating! civilian! science-funding! were! badly! flawed,! which! contributed! to! the!
progressive!corruption!of!science!in!America!and!elsewhere![2].!Science!to!a!large!extent!has!now!
become!politicized,!transformed!into!political-pseudoscience!at!taxpayer!expense.!
!
!
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Advances!in!Social!Sciences!Research!Journal!(ASSRJ)!
Real!science,!unlike!politics,!is!not!about!promoting!consensus-accepted!ideas,!while!ignoring!other!
competing!ideas,!as!currently!practiced.!Instead,!real!science!is!about!finding!out!what!is!wrong!with!
current!scientific!concepts!and!replacing!less-correct!concepts!with!concepts!that!are!more-correct.!
Real!science,! unlike! politics,! is! all! about! telling! the! truth,! truth! that! is! securely! anchored! to! the!
properties!of!matter!and!radiation![1,3].!That!is!how!real!science!progresses.!
!
In!the!highly!politicized!domain!of!climate(change,!there!are!two!schools!of!thought:!The!majority!
view!is! that!global! warming! is! occurring,! caused! by! carbon! dioxide! (CO2)! and! other! greenhouse!
gases!trapping!heat!that!would!otherwise!be!released!into!space.!The!minority!view!is!that!there!is!
no!global!warming,!and!any! variation! in! global! temperature!is!natural.!Real!science,!as!described!
below,!clearly!leads!to!the!conclusion!that!neither!school!of!thought!is!correct:!Global!warming!is!in!
fact!occurring,!but!not!primarily!as!a!consequence!of!greenhouse!gases.!Global!warming!is!primarily!
caused!by! particulate!pollution! [4-10].! The!good! news!is! that! reducing! particulate! pollution! will!
rapidly!reduce!global!warming!in!a!matter!of!days!to!weeks.!
!
E4?<E8GE)V.>F)H>.D<)H!.)??)
Harvard!physicist!Bernard!Gottschalk![11,12]!noticed!a!thermal!peak!coincident!with!World!War!II!
(WW2)!!in!a!global!temperature!profile!image!on!the!front!page!of!the!January!19,!2017!New(York(
Times,!and!was!inspired!to!investigate!further.!He!applied!sophisticated!curve-fitting!techniques!to!
eight!independent! global! temperature!datasets! from! the!U.!S.! National! Oceanic!and! Atmospheric!
Administration!(NOAA),!demonstrated!that!the!WW2!peak!is!a!robust!feature,!and!concluded!that!
the!thermal!peak!“is(a(consequence(of(human(activity(during(WW2”![11,12].!
V*I2/')W5)G,ML),A)B,;;(&0$-NX()A*;;'")&2/#'()A,/)'*I0;)8>!!)"$;$)(';()(0,P*%I)/'-$;*#');'CM'/$;2/')
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!
The!conspicuous!aspect!of!Gottschalk’s!global-warming!curves![11],!shown!by!the!black!curves!in!
Figure! 1,! is! that! immediately! after! WW2! the! global! warming! rapidly! subsided.! That! behavior! is!
!
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Herndon, J. M. (2020).!True Science for Government Leaders and Educators: The Main Cause of Global Warming. Advances in Social Sciences Research
Journal, 7(7) 106-114.
inconsistent!with!CO2-caused!global!warming!as!CO2!persists!in!the!atmosphere!for!decades![13,14].!
Furthermore,!CO2-caused!global!warming!during!WW2!can!be!ruled!out!as!Antarctic!Law!Dome!Ice!
core!data! during!the!period!1936-1952!show!no!significant!increase!in!CO2!during! the!war!years,!
1939-1945![15].!
!
I!realized!a!different!explanation.!World!War!II! activities!injected!massive!amounts!of!particulate!
matter!into!the!lower!atmosphere!(troposphere)!from!extensive!military!industrialization!and!vast!
munition! detonations,! which! included! demolition! of! entire! cities,! and! their! resulting! debris! and!
smoke.! The! implication! is! that! the! aerosolized! pollution! particles! trapped! heat! that! otherwise!
should!have!been!returned!to!space,!and!thus!caused!global!warming!at!Earth’s!surface![4]!which!
would!have! subsided! rapidly!after! hostilities! ceased.!Rapid! cessation! of!WW2! global!warming! is!
understandable!as!tropospheric!pollution-particulates!typically!fall!to!ground!in!days!to!weeks![16-
20].!
!
Figure! 1,! from! [4,11],! shows! relative-value,! particulate-pollution! proxies! added! to! Gottschalk’s!
figure:!Global!coal!production![21,22];!global!crude!oil!production![22,23];!and,!global!aviation!fuel!
consumption![22].!Each!proxy!dataset!was!normalized!to!its!value!at!the!date!1986,!and!anchored!
at!1986!to!Gottschalk’s!boldface,!weighted!average,!relative!global!warming!curve.!The!particulate-
proxies!track!well!with!the!eight!NOAA!global!datasets!used!by!Gottschalk![4].!
!
Following!the!end!of!WW2!hostilities,!wartime!aerosol!particulates!rapidly!settled!to!ground![16],!
Earth!radiated!its!excess!trapped!energy,!and!global!warming!abruptly!subsided!for!a!brief!time![4].!
Soon,!however,!post-WW2!industrial!growth,!initially!in!Europe!and!Japan,!and!later!in!China,!India,!
and!the!rest!of!Asia![24]!increased!worldwide!aerosol!particulate!pollution!and!with!it!concomitant!
global!warming! [4].!The! rapid! non-linear! rise! in! these! curves!in! recent!decades! presumably! has!
been! greatly! accelerated! by! deliberately! emplaced! tropospheric! aerosol! particulate-pollution!
[25,26].!
!
From! the! evidence! shown! in! Figure! 1,! there! is! one! inescapable! conclusion:! Aerosol! particulate!
pollution,!not! carbon!dioxide,!is!the!main!cause!of!global!warming.!That!conclusion!was!not!at!all!
evident!from!the!“radiation-balance”!methodology!and!parametrized!models!widely!utilized!by!the!
climate! science! community.! The! concept! that! aerosol! particulate! pollution! is! the! main! cause! of!
global!warming!thus!constitutes!a!climate-science!paradigm!shift.!Yet,!in!certain!respects!it!might!
have!been!obvious!to!those!who!observe!nature!and!who!reason!objectively.!For!example,!one!might!
have!observed!that!in!the!desert!cloudy!days!are!usually!cooler!than!non-cloudy!days,!while!cloudy!
nights!are!typically!warmer!than!non-cloudy!nights.!
)
E4?<E8GE)>V)BD>K!D)H!.F?8B)
Two! measurements,! the! daily! high! temperature! and! the! nightly! low! temperature,! when! tracked!
over!time!over! a! large!geographic! area,! provide!an! independent! measure! of!climate! change.! The!
daily!high!temperature!minus!nightly!low!temperature,!(Tmax!–!Tmin),!called!the!diurnal!temperature!
range!(DTR),!is! essentially! independent!of!any!effects!of!greenhouse!gases! [13,27].!Figure!2!from!
Qu!et!al.![28]!presents!yearly!DTR,!Tmax,!and!Tmin!mean!values!over!the!continental!USA!throughout!
most!of!the!20th!century!and!into!the!21st!century!up!to!2010.!
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Vol.7,!Issue!7,!July-2020!
Advances!in!Social!Sciences!Research!Journal!(ASSRJ)!
V*I2/')]5))^'$/-L)<@.7)@C$Q7)$%")@C*%)C'$%)#$-2'(),#'/);0')&,%;*%'%;$-)U+!5)@0')/'")-*%'()$/')-*%'$/)
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!
As!shown!in!Figure!2,!Tmin!increases!at!a!greater!rate!than!Tmax!causing!DTM!to!decrease!over!time,!
a!phenomena!that!is!observed!in!many!similar!investigations![29-32]!but!not!all![33].!Whereas!the!
reduction!in!Tmax!can!be! explained! by! sunlight!being!absorbed!or! scattered! by! particulates!or!by!
clouds,! the! increase! in! Tmin!is! inexplicable! within! the! current! consensus-driven! climate! science!
paradigm![13].!
!
FEGJ!8?+F)>V)BD>K!D)H!.F?8B)K^)!E.>+>D)9!.@?GUD!@E+)
Aerosol!particles!are!heated!by!solar!radiation!and!by!radiant!heat!from!the!Earth,!and!transfer!that!
heat! to! atmospheric! gases! by! molecular! collisions.! The! resultant! atmospheric! heating! has! the!
consequence!of!reducing!atmospheric!convection!and!thus!reducing!heat!loss!from!Earth’s!surface!
[7,9].!
!
Convection! is! perhaps! the! most! misunderstood! natural! process! in! Earth! science.! Hypothetical!
convection! models! of! Earth’s! fluid! core! [34-37]! and! of! Earth’s! mantle! [38,39]! continue! to! be!
produced,!although!sustained!thermal!convection!in!each!instance!has!been!shown!to!be!physically!
impossible![40]!thus!necessitating!a!fundamentally!different!geoscience!paradigm![41-47].!!
!
Chandrasekhar!described!convection!in!the!following,!easy-to-understand!way![48]:!
The(simplest(example(of(thermally(induced(convection(arises(when(a(horizontal(layer(of(
fluid( is( heated( from( below( and( an( adverse( temperature( gradient( is( maintained( [( i.e.(
bottom( hotter( than( top].( The( adjective( ‘adverse’( is( used( to( qualify( the( prevailing(
temperature(gradient,( since,(on(account(of(thermal(expansion,(the(fluid(at(the(bottom(
becomes(lighter(than(the(fluid(at(the(top;(and(this(is(a(top-heavy(arrangement(which(is(
!
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Herndon, J. M. (2020).!True Science for Government Leaders and Educators: The Main Cause of Global Warming. Advances in Social Sciences Research
Journal, 7(7) 106-114.
potentially(unstable.(Under(these(circumstances(the(fluid(will(try(to(redistribute(itself(to(
redress(this(weakness(in(its(arrangement.(This(is(how(thermal(convection(originates:(It(
represents(the(efforts(of(the(fluid(to(restore(to(itself(some(degree(of(stability.((
To! the! best! of! my! knowledge,! consequences! of! the! adverse( temperature( gradient,! described! by!
Chandrasekhar! [48]! have! not! been! explicitly! considered! in! either! solid-Earth! or! tropospheric!
convection!calculations.!The!following!simple!classroom-demonstration!experiment,!however,!can!
provide! critical! insight! for! understanding! how! convection! works! that! is! applicable! to! both!
tropospheric!and!Earth-core!convection![7].!
!
As!described!recently![9]:!
The( convection( classroom-demonstration( experiment( was( conducted( using( a( 4( liter(
beaked-beaker,(nearly(filled(with(distilled(water(to(which(celery(seeds(were(added,(and(
heated(on(a(regulated(hot(plate.(The(celery(seeds,(dragged(along(by(convective(motions(
in(the(water,(served(as(an(indicator(of(convection.(When(stable(convection(was(attained,(
a(ceramic(tile( was( placed(atop(the( beaker( to(retard(heat( loss,( thereby(increasing(the(
temperature( at( the( top( relative( to( that( at( the( bottom,( thus( decreasing( the( adverse(
temperature(gradient.((
Figure!3,!from![7],!extracted!from!the!video!record![49,50],!shows!dramatic!reduction!in!convection!
after!placing! the! tile! atop! the! beaker.! In!only! 60! seconds! the! number! of! celery! seeds! in!motion,!
driven!by!convection,!decreased!markedly,!demonstrating!the!principle!that!reducing!the!adverse!
temperature!gradient!decreases!convection.!That!result!is!reasonable!as!zero!adverse!temperature!
gradient!by!definition!is!zero!thermal!convection.!
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*%)C,;*,%)$;)@dec)('&5))
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Particulate!matter!in!the!troposphere,!including!the!moisture!droplets!of!clouds,!as!described!here,!
not!only!blocks!sunlight,!it!also!absorbs!radiation!both!from!in-coming!solar!radiation!and!from!out-
going!terrestrial!radiation.!The!thusly!heated!aerosol!particles!transfer!that!heat!to!the!surrounding!
atmosphere!which!increases!its!temperature!and!reduces!the!adverse!temperature!gradient!relative!
to! air! near! the! surface.! The! reduction! of! adverse! temperature! gradient,! as! demonstrated! by! the!
above! classroom-demonstration,! concomitantly! reduces! convective! heat! transport! from! the!
surface.!This!is!the!mechanism!whereby!particulate!pollution!causes!global!warming.!
!
+@>99?8B)BD>K!D)H!.F?8B)!8<)?F9.>4?8B)JE!D@J)
Life!on!Earth!is!possible!because!of!the!natural!balance!of!interactions!by!and!between!myriad!biota!
and!the!physical!processes!of!their!environments.!For!more!than!three!billion!years,!as!long!as!life!
has!existed!on!Earth,!this!balance!has!maintained!itself!without!human!intervention!despite!being!
bombarded! by! potentially! variable! solar! radiation! from! above! [51,52]! and! potentially! variable!
planetary!energy!from!below![40-43,47].!Even!now!there! is! natural! variability.! Heat! exiting! from!
within!the!Earth!is!increasing![53].!The!intensity!of!the!geomagnetic!field!is!decreasing![54].!Humans!
can! learn! to! adapt! to! natural! variability! and! can! prosper.! But! unnatural!variability! is! not! only!
unhealthy,!but!potentially!devastating!to!humans!and!other!biota![25,26].!
!
Anthropogenic!(human-created)!global!warming!is!one!particularly!devastating!form!of!unnatural!
variability.!Its!cause,!however,!has!been!grossly!misunderstood.!It!is!neither!necessary!to!trap!and!
sequester!carbon!dioxide![55]!nor!to!emplace!particles!in!the!upper!atmosphere!(stratosphere)!to!
reflect! sunlight! [56],! a! disastrous! “cure”! that! in! the! extreme! might! even! initiate! a! new! ice! age.!
Significantly!reducing! tropospheric!particulate!pollution,!as!real!scientific!evidence!indicates,!will!
quickly!lead!to! reduced!global!anthropogenic!warming!and!to! great!improvements!in!human!and!
environmental!health.!
!
Air!pollution!is!the!leading!environmental!cause!of!disease!and!death!worldwide,!and!it!is!increasing!
at!an!alarming!rate![57].!Exposure!to!air!pollution!particles!is!a!significant!risk!factor!for!premature!
death,! including! ischemic! heart! disease,! chronic! obstructive! pulmonary! disease,! and! respiratory!
infections![58].!Long-term,!cumulative!exposure! to! fine! particulate!matter!in!the!United! States! is!
associated!with!all-cause!mortality,!cardiovascular! disease,! and! lung! cancer! [59].! In! recent! years,!
emerging!evidence!from!clinical,!observational,!epidemiological!and!experimental!studies!strongly!
suggest!that!Alzheimer’s!Dementia,!Parkinson’s,!and!thrombotic!stroke!are!associated!with!ambient!
air! pollution! [60].! Children! residing! in! highly! polluted! urban! environments! were! found! to! have!
cognitive!deficits,!and!the!majority!of!them!showed!brain!abnormalities!on!MRI![61]!
!
The!combined-causes!of!air!pollution!and!runaway!global!warming!are!modifiable!in!a!short!time-
frame! by! reducing! industrial! and! deliberate! particulate! pollution.! But! corrective! actions! hinge!
embracing! the! real! climate-science! paradigm-shift! [4,7,9,25,26]! and! not! continuing! to! promote!
flawed!and!harmful!political!dictums! that! serve! vested! self-interests.!In!the!light!of!real!scientific!
truth,!leaders!should!strive!for!international!cooperation!at!all!levels!of!authority.)
!
.'A'/'%&'()
1. Herndon,!J.M.,!Some!reflections!on!science!and!discovery.!Curr.!Sci.,!2015.!108(11):!p.!1967-1968.!
2. Herndon,!J.M.,!Make!America!Great!Again!in!Science:!A!Guide!for!All!Sovereign!Nations.!Advances!in!Social!
Sciences!Research!Journal,!2020.!7(4):!p.!310-317.!
!
!
U.D=)http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/assrj.77.8626!
112!
Herndon, J. M. (2020).!True Science for Government Leaders and Educators: The Main Cause of Global Warming. Advances in Social Sciences Research
Journal, 7(7) 106-114.
3. Herndon,!J.M.,!Inseparability!of!science!history!and!discovery.!Hist.!Geo!Space!Sci.,!2010.!1:!p.!25-41.!
4. Herndon,!J.M.,!Air!pollution,!not!greenhouse!gases:!The!principal!cause!of!global!warming.!J.!Geog.!Environ.!Earth!
Sci.!Intn.,!2018.!17(2):!p.!1-8.!
5. Herndon,!J.M.,!Scientific!misrepresentation!and!the!climate-science!cartel.!J.!Geog.!Environ.!Earth!Sci.!Intn.,!2018.!
18(2):!p.!1-13.!
6. Herndon,!J.M.,!Fundamental!climate!science!error:!Concomitant!harm!to!humanity!and!the!environment!J.!Geog.!
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