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COVID-19 and investor behavior

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Abstract

How do retail investors respond to the outbreak of COVID-19? We use transaction-level trading data to show that investors significantly increase their trading activities as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, both at the extensive and at the intensive margin. Investors, on average, increase their brokerage deposits and open more new accounts. The average weekly trading intensity increases by 13.9% as the number of COVID-19 cases doubles. The increase in trading is especially pronounced for male and older investors, and affects stock and index trading. Following the 9.99%-drop of the Dow Jones on March 12, investors significantly reduce the usage of leverage.

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... In the economic context, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected stock markets as well as investors' stock trading patterns (Okorie & Lin, 2021;Ortmann et al., 2020). Despite heightened attention by investors (Smales, 2021), increased fear in stock trading due to the COVID-19 pandemic (Subramaniam & Chakraborty, 2021) and decline in the investors' trust and confidence in stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic (Shrotryia & Kalra, 2021), stock market liquidity had increased during the first nine months of 2020. ...
... The results of this study contradict the prevailing proposition that crises and other "distraction events" are associated with decreased trading volumes and stock volatility (Peress & Schmidt, 2020). However, the findings of this study concur with the result of recent studies, which focus on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock trading, indicating that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stock volatility has increased (see, Erdem, 2020;Heo et al., 2021;Okorie & Lin, 2021) and stock trading volumes have also increased (see, Ortmann et al., 2020). Most importantly, the results add to the body of existing literature that retail stock trading patterns changed during the first wave of COVID-19 lockdowns, underpinning strong presence of herd trading behavior. ...
... The abrupt transmission rate of the SARS-CoV-2 to the global population and the seriousness of the COVID-19, forced governments in many countries to proceed with unprecedented lockdowns and strict quarantine measures, during the first nine months of 2020 (Ortmann et al., 2020). Amid lockdowns, many people had found themselves sitting in their homes, in isolation. ...
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The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 lockdowns on retail stock trading patterns, at a transnational level. Cross-sectional empirical research was utilized with five samples of public companies from the US, Europe, Asia, and blended equity capital markets globally. The impact of the first wave of COVID-19 lockdowns on stock trading patterns was investigated using median tests and the factors that influence retail stock trading were explored with regression analyses. Contrary to the conventional proposition that stock trading activity is reduced during times of crisis, the results of this study indicate that retail stock trading increased during the first wave of COVID-19 lockdowns. In addition, the findings raise awareness of the risks to novice retail investors associated with the increased stock trading due to herd behavior.
... As financial information has become increasingly easier to access for the general public, individuals are in a position where they now have more influence over markets which were previously controlled by institutions, hence the need for more attention to the level of retail investor participation and their influence in financial markets (Annunziata, 2023). This increase in retail investor activity was further spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic and various studies have observed retail investor activity during the pandemic (Ortmann et al. 2020;Talwar et al., 2021;Chakraborty et al., 2022). ...
... Studies such as those by Ortmann et al. (2020) and Ma (2023) have investigated the trading patterns of retail investors during the outbreak of COVID-19, highlighting the shifts in sentiment and trading activity in response to the pandemic. This study concluded that retail trading activity increased on a UK-based trading app during COVID-19. ...
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This paper investigates the factors influencing the number of monthly active users of E-Trading Apps from January 2017 until June 2021. As digital platforms increasingly facilitate retail investors’ access to financial markets, understanding the drivers behind user engagement is essential. Trading apps, defined as mobile applications that enable the buying and selling of financial instruments, have transformed the financial landscape, enhancing the role of retail investors. The analysis utilises a comprehensive panel dataset containing data from four major economies – the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and France. We find that monthly income is a significant predictor of E-Trading apps usage, suggesting that higher income levels drive greater retail participation in financial markets. However, variables such as unemployment rates, mortgage rates, and stock market returns did not show statistically significant effects. Additionally, we found a significant positive influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on user numbers, highlighting its role in boosting retail investor activity during the studied period. Overall, this paper emphasises the importance of both economic indicators, affecting the financial situation of consumers, and extraordinary events in shaping retail investor usage of E-Trading apps.
... While investing and gambling both involve a voluntary exposure to risk (Neal et al. 2005) the outcomes are expected to be substantially different: gambling largely leads to financial losses, while investors might reasonably expect to make money over time (Markham et al. 2016;Muggleton et al. 2021). But this is not universally true, since speculative trading, such as high-frequency trading 1 (Ortmann et al. 2020) and highrisk investments (Frino et al. 2019;Kumar 2009), often result in losses, with a pattern of returns not dissimilar to gambling . In short, some investment products may pose risks similar to gambling. ...
... More people are investing today than ever before (Aramonte and Avalos 2021; Chiah and Zhong 2020). Ease of investing associated with rapidly growing mobile trading apps drives both increased trading activity by existing investors as well as new accounts being opened by first-time less sophisticated investors (Angel 2021;Ortmann et al. 2020;Ozik et al. 2021). Similar harmful trends have been observed with mobile phone gambling (Barber et al. 2022;Hing et al. 2022). ...
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Both gambling and trading involve risk-taking in exchange for potential financial gains. In particular, speculative high-risk high-frequency trading closely resembles disordered gambling behaviour by attracting the same individuals who tend to be overconfident, sensation-seekers, and attracted to quick large potential payoffs. We build on these studies via an incentivised experiment, in which we examine how manipulated levels of market volatility affected trading frequency. Gamblers (N=604) were screened based on the existence of household investments and recruited across the four categories of the Problem Gambling Severity Index. The volatility of stocks was manipulated between-participants (high vs. low). Participants traded fictitious stocks and were provided bonuses based on the results of their trading activity (M=US$4.77, range=[0, 16.99]). Participants traded more often in the high-volatility market, and this finding remained robust after controlling for financial literacy, overconfidence, age, and gender. Many investors trade more frequently than personal finance guides advise, and these results suggest that individuals are more likely to commit this error in more volatile markets. Exploratory analyses suggest that the effect of the volatility manipulation was strongest amongst gamblers who were at low-risk of experiencing gambling harms. As they might be otherwise considered low-risk, these individuals could be overlooked by protective gambling interventions yet nonetheless suffer unmitigated financial harms due to unchecked excessive trading.
... Arthur, Williams, and Delfabbro (2016) suggested that these harmful structural features were not easily accessible to investors and traders in 2016, and therefore "problem investing" was extremely rare. However, with the subsequent development of mobile trading apps, which are now ubiquitous, frequent continuous trading has been made very accessible (Angel 2021;Ortmann, Pelster, and Wengerek 2020), and is now common among retail traders (Stewart 2020). In fact, many trading platforms exploit behavioral patterns known to attract gamblers, such as frequent notifications and bonuses for volume users (Newall and Weiss-Cohen 2022). ...
... More people are investing today than ever before (Aramonte and Avalos 2021;Chiah and Zhong 2020). Ease of investing associated with rapidly growing mobile trading apps drives both increased trading activity by existing investors as well as new accounts being opened by first-time less-sophisticated investors (Angel 2021;Ortmann, Pelster, and Wengerek 2020;Ozik, Sadka, and Shen 2021). Retrospective self-report studies have linked levels of disordered gambling symptomology with both stock trading frequency (Mosenhauer, Newall, and Walasek 2021), and higher likelihood of selecting high-risk investments (Arthur, Delfabbro, and Williams 2015;Williams et al. 2023). ...
... Investors will become risk-averse when a company experiences a decline in overall performance, such as decreased profitability, increased financial risk, or unfavourable market sentiment (Ortmann et al., 2020;Talwar et al., 2021). As a result, they demand higher expected rates of return to compensate for the increased risk perceived by investors. ...
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Stock market financing access plays an important role in sustainable business resilience and financial performance. In the Covid-19 pandemic, the banking sector has the potential to bear high equity costs commensurate with the risk. Impression management as a corporate communication strategy can maintain shareholder perception of corporate risk. The study aims to examine the effect of impression management in moderating the relationship between financial performance and cost of equity. The study consists of 228 bank-year observations on the Southeast Asian stock exchanges for 2020-2022. Data was obtained from the Annual Report, Integrated Report, and Form 56-1 One Report. This study examines separate companies that use one-tier and two-tier board systems. The findings indicate that improvements in financial performance had a negative impact on equity costs in Indonesia but a positive impact in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. ROA and ROE only had a beneficial influence on Indonesia. The independent Board’s relationship to the cost of equity was not demonstrated. This study supports the idea that impression management improves the relationship between pandemic-related changes in financial performance and the cost of equity. The practical implications are that companies with negative changes in performance that also have proper impression management can attract investors with lower equity costs.
... The size groups remain the exact ordering, while the conditional inverse relationship between investment and profitability collapses. This may be because the investors become more risk averse and prefer stable earnings over the companies that generate higher returns [11]. Table 6 shows the winner of Q-factor sorting, which consists of the expectation. ...
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The Q-factor model is a quantitative pricing model similar to the Fama-French multi-factor model, which is an investment approach using investment (IA) and profitability (ROE) as the significant factors. This paper collects historical data (1987~2022) from Australian stocks and constructs long-short portfolios to investigate the effectiveness of applying this model in the Australian market. Net returns will be validated by Carhart regression. Finally, the optimal factor portfolios and trading strategies will be tested for factor substitution based on cumulative return trends and risk-return metrics. Overall, both the Q-factor model and the augmented Q-factor effectively analyzed investments in the Australian market. The difference between theoretical and practical-based long-short is mainly due to the abnormal ranking performance of individual factors, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. In most cases, strategies based on actual data sorting generate better risk-return outcomes than theory-based approaches, suggesting that the models must be continually adapted to suit Australia's unique economic and market conditions.
... Y. Wang & Young, 2020). Secondly, a proliferation of optimistic and pessimistic expectations on potential market recoveries from innumerable news sources inundate retail investors with inconclusive evidence on optimal investment strategies (Ortmann et al., 2020). As a result, investors are presumed to behave irrationally due to information asymmetry and inefficient markets, both emphasizing behavioral finance as a prudent rationale for diverse investment decisions (F. ...
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As the financial condition of most individuals has taken the toll during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study aims to analyze varied risk perceptions owing to dynamic behavioral aspects ingrained in individuals. The study primarily incorporates the impact of COVID-19 induced risk perceptions on psychological bias and its aftermath on perceived investment performance, with gender differences being moderators in the aforesaid relationship. A mix of probability and non-probability sampling has been used to collect data from 1,133 respondents through a structured questionnaire. The partial least square structured equation modeling (PLS-SEM) has been employed as an estimation technique. The findings highlight that risk perception has been significant in affecting the heuristics and prospects. However, it is insignificant in directly impacting the perceived investment performance. However, psychological biases, proxied by heuristics and prospects, were found to mediate the relationship between risk perception and perceived investment performance. Practical implications suggest a judicious combination of risk, return, and behavioral portfolio to stimulate, and upscale investments thereby enhancing the investment momentum to reach pre-covid levels. At the same time, the relevance for society lies in the fact that they need to re-consider their investment portfolio to adjust for uncertainties like COVID-19. Future studies can embark on cross country research to investigate varied risk perception-investment performance relationships prevalent in respective economic settings. Also, studies can explore the variation in findings with respect to different classes of investors that is, experiences, first timers, institutional, influencers and others.
... Investors often take the way of stock selling to avoid the risk of stock decline caused by these events (Ortmann et al., 2020). A relatively consistent selling behaviour in a short time will lead to abnormal fluctuations in stock prices (Wei et al., 2020). ...
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This study takes listed companies that have experienced sudden crisis events as samples. The event study method and multiple regression analysis are further adopted to explore the relationship between sudden crisis events and the stock price fluctuations of listed companies from the perspective of multidimensional characteristics. Findings reveal that sudden crisis events have a significant impact on stock price fluctuations. However, the firms' response frequency and response time to crisis events can exert a buffering role in their adverse association. Further analysis shows that the stock price fluctuations also vary with different heterogeneous characteristics including crisis event types, ownership types, firm competitiveness and firm size. The multidimensional analysis targeting the impact of sudden crisis events on the stock market is conducive to helping firms grasp the rhythm of crisis events and further implement some practical and feasible crisis management measures.
... Block et al. 2018;Chan et al., 2020;Vismara 2016) have therefore only considered campaigns posted during normal economic environments. A major socio-economic disruptive event such as the Covid-19 pandemic could affect the ability of entrepreneurs to raise funds for their campaigns as funders may be more risk averse (Baker et al., 2020;Ortmann et al. 2020;Papadamou et al., 2020) and selective of projects to support given the many aspects of uncertainty surrounding health, economic and social wellbeing. Hence, this research also aims to narrow the gap by investigating whether the Covid-19 pandemic moderates the impact of signals of quality and trust on reward crowdfunding success. ...
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This study examines the impact of quality signals as proxied by third party recognition, videos, photos, GIFs, online presence, and general disclosure; and signals of trust proxied by risk disclosure, location of fundraisers, team effort and recent funding success on reward crowdfunding success. In addition, the analysis investigates and provides new evidence on the moderating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the relationship between the two types of signaling and funding success. Using data from of 21,270 campaigns posted on Kickstarter over the period July 2019 to July 2020, logistic regression models indicate a statistically significant relationship between quality/trust signals and campaigns' funding success. Interestingly, we find that using diverse multimedia content, providing extensive information disclosure, involving a team of creators and having a track record of previous successful funding are significant determinants of reward crowdfunding success. On the contrary, the use of photos and disclosure of online presence have significant adverse effect on the likelihood of funding success. The findings also suggest that the external shock of Covid-19 pandemic only has significant interactive effects on the reward crowdfunding success for two signaling proxies, viz. Extent of risk information disclosure and external URL presence. Our findings are robust to the Difference-inDifferences model check and a range of other robustness tests.
... investor secara khusus meningkatkan investasinya pada saham dan indeks serta tidak beralih ke investasi safe haven seperti emas maupun aset berisiko seperti kripto meskipun terjadi pandemi COVID-19(Ortmann et al., 2020).Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji kemampuan properti safe haven dari emas dan bitcoin terhadap saham ketika terjadinya kondisi pasar yang ekstrim di Indonesia.Hasil empiris menyatakan jika sebagian besar waktu emas dan bitcoin tidak menunjukan kemampuan sebagai aset safe haven bagi saham. Namun, koefisien korelasi negatif yang dimiliki oleh emas dan bitcoin pada kuantil 10% dan 5% memberikan indikasi jika kedua aset ini memiliki potensi untuk bertindak sebagai aset safe haven pada kondisi pasar tertentu. ...
Article
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kemampuan logam mulia emas dan cryptocurrency bitcoin untuk berperan sebagai aset safe haven bagi pasar saham di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Dinamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) untuk menguji hubungan antara emas dan bitcoin terhadap pasar saham. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder, yang terdiri dari 1.343 observasi harian dari harga penutupan saham (IHSG), emas dan juga bitcoin. Hasil dari analisis data menunjukan bahwa koefisien korelasi emas dan saham bernilai negatif pada kuantil 10% dan bitcoin menunjukan koefisien koreasi yang bernilai negatif pada kuantil 5%, sedangkan pada kuantil lainnya koefisien korelasi bernilai positif untuk kedua aset tersebut. Hasil ini menunjukan jika emas dan bitcoin hanya berperan sebagai sebagai aset safe haven bagi saham pada kondisi pasar tertentu saja. Selain itu, hasil analisis juga menunjukan bahwa, ketika terjadinya volatilitas pasar ekstrim seperti pandemi COVID-19, emas dan bitcoin tidak dapat berperan sebagai aset safe haven bagi pasar saham.
... Important information concerning shifts in market mood may also be revealed by fluctuations in trade volume. For instance, Ortmann et al. (2020) highlighted that as the COVID-19 outbreak spreads, investors increase their trading activity. In the case of the Chinese stock market, Q. Wang and Liu (2022) proved that buying volume is positively associated with stock prices. ...
Article
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and leading equity market indices from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and globally between January 2020 and June 2022. The methodological approaches utilized are quantile regression and wavelet analysis. The results of quantile regression suggested that Google Search Volume (GSV) and Twitter-based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU) negatively influenced the equity indices at lower quantiles. The wavelet coherence analysis highlighted that, at lower frequency bands, GSV moves in sync with the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Dow Jones Industrials, and FTSE 100 but not with the DAX, CAC 40, TOPIX, Nikkei 225, or MSCI. Nonetheless, when the TMU was used to measure investors’ sentiment, the results revealed that the whole series was out of phase.
... By continuing to pay attention to news developments regarding COVID-19, investors are becoming more careful in making their investment decisions, because the information that investors continue to seek is not only to direct investors to which investment is good to buy, but tends to generate a feeling of uncertainty from investors, especially at the crisis period of COVID-19 pandemic. Ortmann et al. (2020) found that in supporting the increasing number of positive cases of COVID-19 led to an increase in the average weekly trading intensity of investors by 13.9%. Normally investors add funds to their accounts and decide to have more new accounts and allocate positions to their investments. ...
Article
Dunia dikejutkan dengan ditemukannya virus baru COVID-19 yang berdampak pada kinerja perusahaan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji pengaruh mental accounting behavior dan loss aversion terhadap kinerja perusahaan di Indonesia yang terdaftar di KOMPAS100 selama periode pandemi COVID-19. Model regresi Ordinary Least Square (OLS) pada data panel dibentuk dengan menggunakan dua variabel dependen ROA dan Tobin's Q. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perilaku loss aversion berpengaruh negatif terhadap kinerja perusahaan, baik pada variabel ROA maupun variabel Tobin's Q dan perilaku tersebut umumnya memiliki dampak yang semakin meningkat ketika krisis akibat pandemi COVID-19 terjadi. Sementara perilaku mental accounting juga terbukti memberikan dampak negatif terhadap kinerja perusahaan dengan menggunakan variabel ROA selama masa pandemi COVID-19, namun perilaku ini meningkat signifikan sehingga berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja perusahaan. Namun hasil tersebut tidak sejalan dengan penelitian menggunakan Tobin's Q yang menunjukkan hasil yang signifikan bahwa perilaku mental accounting memberikan dampak positif terhadap kinerja perusahaan dan dampak tersebut meningkat saat masa krisis akibat pandemi COVID-19. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan penelitian sebelumnya menunjukkan bahwa baik mental accounting maupun loss aversion berpengaruh terhadap kinerja perusahaan.
... It is crucial to note that, while such events cause havoc, they also serve as a perfect natural ground to evaluate the investment behavior of investors. The COVID-19 pandemic provides another such experimental setting for inspecting investors' behavior to fill the gap in the linked results (Ortmann et al., 2020). Hence, this study tries to elucidate the investor's intention to participate in stock market during COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Article
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This research aims to investigate the significance of trust in financial institution and financial literacy in the investment decision-making of individual investors during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates the strength of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in this framework. This study considered a structured questionnaire to collect data from 460 individual investors of different districts in four states of India. For testing the research hypotheses, SPSS and PLS-SEM were taken into consideration. The findings enlighten that elements of TPB, i.e. attitude (ATT) and subjective norms (SNs), are significantly associated with investment intentions (INT) while perceived behavioral control (PBC) displays an insignificant association with INT. Furthermore, along with the original components of the TPB model, Trust in financial institution (TFI) and Financial Literacy (FL) were also incorporated in the model, which shows a significant affect on investors’ intention to invest in the stock market. The results stated that TFI is the most significant factor that enhances investors’ intention to participate in stock market during COVID-19 pandemic. The study describes that during the phase of uncertainty like COVID-19 pandemic trust is the most important factor that enhances investors’ participation in the stock market. Authors suggest SEBI and other financial institutions should promote trust and trusting behavior in financial institutions as it is significant not only from the perspective of financial development but also to empower the individuals to gain from institutional services as well as to guard them, from possible negative effects (like financial frauds), which are more likely to be present outside of regulatory boundaries. This study is one of the initial attempts in the context of the Indian Stock Market to introduce TFI as a dual (both mediating and moderating) variable between the basic constructs of TPB. Further, the study also examines the importance of trust in financial institution and financial literacy in enhancing investors’ intention to participate in stock market during COVID-19 pandemic.
... Later, depositors might discover moneymaking methods based on market shortcomings to achieve uneven returns. On the contrary [19], proposed that ideal savings include sightseeing manufacturing, skill sector, industrial holidays, and gold. Authors [20] criticizes the firms' response to COVID-19 in numerous ways, because many segments were shielded during the separation stage, and it verified that the companies will be vulnerable to the epidemic. ...
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This research aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the stock markets of Pakistan (Islamabad), China (Shanghai), and the United States of America (New York). These three stock markets were chosen to demonstrate the variation in the degree of influence based on varied times in which the respective nations were impacted by COVID-19. COVID-19, a pandemic virus, was still present in China in December 2020. The one-year timeline helps us understand the pattern of the effect on different stock markets that show onward to guide us to indicate that in this situation, the lack of economic movement (due to the lockdown) had a more negative effect on stock prices than the increase in the number of new confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus. This study was carried out to assess the influence of COVID-19 on the financial sectors, including the stock market. The effects were assessed by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) to demonstrate correlations between three stock markets (Pakistan, Shanghai, and New York) and COVID-19 instances. The study's major goal is to demonstrate the differences in the three countries' levels of influence. We got empirical results and discovered that the confirmed cases had a detrimental influence on three stock exchanges. However, all three countries saw an increase in the number of recovery cases. The number of deaths was minor for Pakistan and China but had a detrimental impact on the New York Stock Exchange.
... Interestingly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been an observed increase in trading activities among investors. Ortmann et al. (2020) reported that as the number of COVID-19 cases doubled, investors' weekly average trading intensity rose by 13.9%. Investors added funds to their accounts and opened new positions on average. ...
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This research aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socially responsible investment, specifically the SRI-KEHATI stock index on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. The study utilizes secondary data comprising 11,175 observations from 35 public companies, spanning from March 2, 2020, to December 31, 2021. Panel data regression is employed to examine the relationship between stock returns and confirmed COVID-19 cases, serving as the independent variable. The model is controlled for market capitalization, market-to-book ratio, and firm size. Additionally, Indonesia's lockdown policy is incorporated as a dummy variable. The findings reveal a significant negative impact of confirmed cases on SRI-KEHATI stock returns.
... Third, Covid-19 had affected investor behavior and risk appetite. It is documented in Covid-19 studies that investors became more risk averse during Covid-19 and increased uncertainty and risk aversion among investors, causing them to sell off stocks and seek safer assets which caused stock price decline and increased volatility (Mnif, Salhi, Mouakha, & Jarboui, 2022;Ortmann et al., 2020;Yuan et al., 2022). Finally, Covid-19 impacted the global economy as a whole, leading to a decrease in global GDP and an increased risk of a recession (Gagnon et al., 2023;Havrlant et al., 2021), and impacted financial markets worldwide. ...
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This paper investigated exchange rate and stock price volatility connectedness and spillover in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) during pandemic-induced crises. We first extracted volatility using the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Then volatility connectedness and spillover were investigated by using (Diebold and Yilmaz, International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57–66, 2012) method. We find that exchange rate volatility and stock return volatilities are connected during pandemic-induced crises. The study also finds volatilities spillover among countries in the sample. Russia has strong volatility connectedness with India in these financial markets. The direction of volatility spillover is from Russia to India. Similarly, Brazil has strong volatility connectedness with South Africa and the direction volatility spillover is from Brazil to South Africa. Finally, China has a weak volatility connection with the remaining BRICS countries. Thus, the volatility transfer in these financial markets and across BRICS countries has economic implications.
... During the COVID-19 pandemic, investors behave differently under the pressure of financial crises (Barbate et al., 2021) and confirmed cases (Krishna, 2021). Ortmann et al. (2020) argue that investors increase their trading activities to sell off securities, and this uniform behaviour contributes to herding in a pandemic. Investors can panic compared to a normal trading period. ...
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Purpose Rainy-day savings have been an effective measure for maintaining financial stability in times of emergency. Motivated by the rapid expansion of cryptocurrencies, the present study examines how crypto investments could moderate the beneficial outcomes of rainy-day savings for alleviating financial anxiety during the most recent economic turbulence caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The present study carries out multivariate logistic regression with interaction effects on the most recent 2021 cohort data from the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS). Findings While rainy-day savings relate to less financial anxiety, the effect varies depending on whether an individual has invested in cryptocurrencies. Specifically, this paper finds that crypto investors experience less relief in financial anxiety from rainy-day savings than non-crypto investors. Additionally, crypto investors are more susceptible to financial stressors like job loss and financial fragility, likely due to the financial loss from investing in cryptocurrencies. Practical implications The findings highlight the necessity of implementing policies and regulations, such as the newly approved Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, that could raise people’s awareness of the high-risk nature of cryptocurrencies as well as offering targeted financial education for crypto investors, especially during times of market downturn. Originality/value This is the first attempt to study how crypto investments may weaken the benefits of rainy-day savings in reducing financial anxiety. The findings offer new insights into the beneficial outcomes of rainy-day savings for emergencies in light of individual crypto investment backgrounds. Additionally, findings from the present study also contain important implications given the rapid expansion of the cryptocurrency market as well as future economic turbulence.
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This article investigates the presence of herding on global stock markets during COVID-19. Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation developed by Chiang and Zheng (2010) and Chang et al. (2000) examine market-wide herding. Results show that herding is prevalent in Brazil, Germany, India, Italy, Korea, China-Shanghai, China-Shenzhen and Turkey. During the epidemic, no evidence of herding was detected in France, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Poland, the United Kingdom and the United States. It has been shown that the United States and Chinese cross-market herding substantially influences all markets. The impact of analyst information (target price, EPS forecasts and revenue predictions) on herding is shown before the pandemic and weakening during the pandemic. It indicates that investors disregard expert recommendations and liquidate equities during the pandemic. The findings shed light on the occurrence and determinants of herding that causes investors’ to behave irrationally during COVID-19. Policymakers, government and regulators should formulate a more robust policy to monitor, control and oversee the naïve herding that drives fundamentals away from stock prices.
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We examine the information content of no-trade periods using the onset of COVID-19 as a natural experiment. January 2020 marks a significant structural shift, characterized by reduced intertrade durations, widened spreads, and heightened return volatility. Our analysis reveals a negative relationship between intertrade durations and information asymmetry measures, implying efficient assimilation of price information during no-trade periods. Our findings align with no-trade theorems, suggesting that longer intertrade durations correspond to periods of favorable market conditions or relative efficiency. Conversely, relatively inefficient market conditions lead to increased trading activity, higher spreads, and shorter intertrade durations as new information prompts market activity.
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The COVID-19 pandemic substantially impacted many aspects of regular life including financial markets. The increased media attention and slowdown associated with the pandemic provide the opportunity to explore how both institutional and retail traders react to an attention-grabbing event. We examine how the market responded to a unique presidential press conference including CEOs of eight publicly-listed U.S. companies addressing the U.S.’s response to the pandemic. Using the press conference on March 13, 2020, we examine the effect on the trading volatility and returns for each of the eight companies represented. We find positive abnormal returns for the companies participating in the press conference. Using the Robintrack data aggregated from the Robinhood retail trading platform and intraday TAQ data, we see that both retail and institutional trading volume increased on the press conference day. However, the increase in retail trading approximately doubled the increase in institutional trading. For the two companies with the lowest Robinhood user ownership prior to the press conference, ownership more than doubled within an hour of the press conference. Panel VAR analysis including control firms shows the press conference resulted in significant intraday returns, volume, and buy-order imbalances in participating firms’ stock.
Book
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The financial sector is witnessing rapid technological innovations, leading to the emergence of Fintech (financial technologies), revolutionizing national and international financial landscapes. Fintech is expanding and enhancing financial products and services, making them more accessible and affordable while transforming customer relationships, payment methods, financing, and transfers. Advances in Emerging Financial Technology and Digital Money provides a platform for collective reflection, bringing together institutions, policymakers, digital and financial service providers, professionals, and academics from various disciplines. The aim is to clarify the challenges, opportunities, and socio-economic impacts of innovations in finance and technology on citizens and businesses in Morocco, Africa, and worldwide. This comprehensive collection offers valuable insights into the current state and prospects of financial technology and digital money. This book covers all the essential topics, including: AI and Machine Learning in Fintech and Beyond; Financial Inclusion, Literacy, and Behavior; Fintech Ecosystems, Collaboration, and Analysis; Blockchain, Security, and Sustainability; Fintech Innovations and Applications. In this new book, the authors share their experiences to provide a comprehensive and well‑researched overview of the technologies and concepts that will transform the banking industry as we know it. It aspires to be a useful reference for executive managers, CIOs, Fintech professionals, and researchers interested in exploring and implementing an efficient Fintech strategy. The book also presents selected papers from International Fintech Congress (IFC 2022).
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This study investigates the influence of analyst forecasting on market liquidity and information efficiency within developed U.S. and emerging Chinese markets, both before and during the global COVID-19 pandemic. Market liquidity, a crucial aspect of financial market functioning, is assessed using key indicators, including Amihud’s liquidity, turnover and bid/ask spreads. The findings reveal notable disparities in analysts’ forecasts of market dynamics before and after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. During the pre-COVID-19 period, our analysis confirms a statistically significant relationship between analyst forecasting and market liquidity. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged and evolved, analysts’ forecasting impacts on market liquidity showed a diminishing trend. Furthermore, the effects of analyst forecasting vary across quantiles in the Chinese market. In the United States, buy-sell recommendations and various analyst forecasting variables were significant before the pandemic. These findings underscore the nuanced interplay between analysts’ forecasts and the market dynamics within the studied regions. Most notably, the U.S. and Chinese markets experienced decreased information efficiency during the COVID-19 crisis. This shift resulted in a notable decoupling of analysts’ forecasts from information efficiency during this period. These outcomes have significant implications for scholars and investors alike, enhancing their comprehension of market conditions and investor behaviour when confronted with heightened market stressors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disrupted international financial markets.
Article
We contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus and exchange rate on stock returns during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia, China, India, and Indonesia. By employing the machine learning approach, We find that monetary stimulus positively boosts the stock return of Indonesia. Contrary, fiscal stimulus adversely affected stock return in Australia. The exchange rate positively impacts stock return for both India and Indonesia during the COVID-19 Pandemic. However, the findings from this study reveal that both monetary and fiscal stimulus have no effect on the stock market return in the case of China and India. Policymakers needs better strategy to counter the extreme events like pandemic. Our model is robust to the alternative model specification.
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11 Mart 2020’de Covid-19’un Dünya Sağlık Örgütü tarafından pandemi olarak ilan edilmesi ve akabinde tüm dünyada sokağa çıkma, kapanma ve kısıtlama yasaklarının başlaması bireylerin ve toplumların yaşamlarını birçok yönden etkilemiştir. Bu çalışmada, Covid-19 pandemisinin yatırımcıların kripto varlık yatırımlarını ne yönde etkilediği ve bu yatırımların yatırımcıların demografik özellikleri göre farklılaşma durumları analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaca yönelik olarak Türkiye’nin 7 bölgesinde 600 kişiye uygulanan anketlerin tamamı Covid-19 pandemisinden önce veya sonra kripto varlık yatırımı olanlara uygulanmıştır. Türkiye’de kripto varlık yatırımı yapan yatırımcıların %66,7’sinin Covid-19 salgını sonrasında kripto varlık yatırımı yapmaya başladığı belirlenmiştir. Bu oran kripto varlık yatırımcı sayısı açısından gerçekten çok yüksek bir orandır. Covid-19 salgını öncesinde ise kripto varlık yatırımlarında erkeklerin oranının kadınlardan fazla olduğu, ileri yaştaki bireylerin kripto varlıklara yatırım yapma oranlarının daha düşük olduğu, geliri 12.001 TL ve üzerindekilerde kripto varlıklara yatırım yapma oranlarının daha yüksek olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca, Covid-19’un kripto varlık yatırımları üzerinde etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmış, Covid-19 salgını sonrasında kripto varlık yatırımlarının yatırımcıların cinsiyetlerine göre ve gelir düzeylerine göre istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklılık gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir.
Chapter
Sustainability reporting is becoming an increasingly widespread form of reporting by various business enterprises. European Commission’s Proposal for a Directive on corporate sustainability reporting amending Accounting directive (2013/34/EU), the Non-Financial Reporting Directive (2014/95/EU), the Transparency Directive (2004/109/EC), the Statutory Audit Directive (2006/43/EC) and the Statutory Audit Regulation (No. 5357/2014) moves sustainability reporting to the margins of the norm for regular corporate reporting. Against this background, the objective of this paper is to investigate the de facto level of harmonization of hotel companies' internal sustainability reporting with respect to (1) the measurement and disclosure of environmental and social key performance indicators (KPIs) and (2) the assessment of the importance of environmental and social KPIs. Data were collected using an online questionnaire and examined using qualitative methods, where measurement and disclosure of KPIs were measured with the C index and assessing the importance of KPIs with a nonparametric Kendall’s W test of concordance. The research results show that there is a low degree of harmonization in internal sustainability reporting with respect to the two selected topics. The novelty of the study lies in the application of qualitative methods in accounting research and in the discovery of a way to link internal sustainability reporting processes with external sustainability disclosures.KeywordsSustainability accountingSustainability reportingInternal sustainability reporting harmonizationHotel industryJEL ClassificationQ56Q 01M56
Article
This paper explores the link between personal experience with COVID-19 and US retail investors' financial decision-making during the first COVID-19 wave. Do retail investors that have personally experienced COVID-19 change their investments after the pandemic outbreak, and if so, why? We use a cross-sectional dataset from an online survey of US retail investors collected in July and August 2020 to assess if and how respondents change their investment decisions after the COVID-19 outbreak. On average retail investors increase their investments during the first wave of COVID-19 by 4.7%, while many of them decrease their investments suggesting a high heterogeneity of investor behaviours. We provide the first evidence that personal experience with the virus can have unexpected positive effects on retail investments. Investors who have personal experience with COVID-19, who are in a vulnerable health category, who tested positive, and who know someone in their close circle of friends or family who died because of COVID-19, increase their investments by 12%. We explain our findings through terror management theory, salience theory and optimism bias, suggesting that reminders of mortality, focussing on selective salient investment information, and over-optimism despite personal vulnerable health contribute to the increase in retail investments. Increased levels of savings, saving goals and risk capacity are also positively associated with increased investments. Our findings are relevant to investors, regulators, and financial advisors, and highlight the importance of providing retail investors with access to investment opportunities in periods of unprecedented shocks such as COVID-19.
Chapter
The US stock market has displayed considerable excess volatility during the different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, while most US indexes fell abruptly and lost about 20–30% during the first wave and in times of lockdowns, unlike the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, the correction was rapid, and most stock indexes subsequently exceeded their pre-COVID levels. Accordingly, it is important to assess whether this dynamic is driven more by a switch in fundamentals or whether it is simply due to a conversion of investors’ emotions. This chapter aims to analyze the dynamics of the US (S&P500) stock index, both before and during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Our findings point to three interesting results. First, US stock returns are driven by both macrofinancial and behavioral factors. Second, a two-regime multifactorial model reproduces the dynamics of the US market in which financial factors play a key role whatever the regime is, while the impact of behavioral factors appears more significant only in the second regime when investors’ anxiety exceeds a given threshold. Third, our in-sample forecasts point to the superiority of our nonlinear multifactorial model to forecast the dynamics of the US stock market.KeywordsCOVID-19Stock indexesFundamentalsInvestors’ emotionsNonlinear multifactorial modelJELC2F10G10
Article
Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between the fear index and initial public offering (IPO) aftermarket liquidity in ASEAN during the bearish time, the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach This study uses random effect panel regression analysis using two proxies of IPO aftermarket liquidity, namely, volume and turnover, on data of 90 IPO companies in the ASEAN-5 countries over four study periods: 30, 60, 90 and 100 days, after their IPOs. Findings The results indicate that the COVID-19 fear index significantly affects liquidity for all periods. The fear index decreases the stock aftermarket liquidity of ASEAN-5 IPO companies. The findings are consistent with additional tests. Originality/value This study initiates research during the COVID-19 pandemic in ASEAN-5 countries. Furthermore, while the other studies examine the stock performance of existing listed companies, this study focuses exclusively on the liquidity of companies that went public through IPOs in 2020.
Article
The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic led to a large number of studies in household finance, using new high-frequency data in close to real time. In this article, we survey household behavior during the pandemic, with a focus on consumption, government policies, credit, and investment. The pandemic induced a rapid decline in consumption, which was affected by but largely preceded stay-at-home orders and was followed by a rapid rebound. Government stimulus was less effective in 2020 relative to other recessions, which is consistent with both shutdowns and precautionary savings. Delinquency rates fell, unlike in other recessions, likely due to government debt relief policies. Household investment behavior was affected by pandemic-induced changes in beliefs. We conclude by discussing avenues for future research. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 15 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
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The outbreak of covid-19 pandemic has brought a huge tide to the financial market across the globe, due to the fluctuation in the performance of a variety of sectors, it kept vacillating in the investors’ opinions, resulting in a drastic fall in the stock market, but pharmaceutical companies were excluded from the main trend. This paper is going to discuss whether the fluctuation in the medical market will be affected by the covid-19 pandemic and then assume the long-term performance of Chinese pharmaceutical companies under the influence of the pandemic. The main analytical methods that have been applicated are the series model, the order of VAR Model, the ARMA-GARCH Model and impulse and response analysis. Finally, we will draw our conclusion that under that if another sudden outbreak can be prevented, the long-term performance of the medical industries will have minor damage from the pandemic. The study provides investors and leaders in the industry with a front-sight of future market performance. We suggest that the medical industry needs to learn from experience to maintain the rise in performance, and the investors can also put faith in them, believing that the overall performance of the pharmaceutical market will not let them down.
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Article History JEL Classification: G01; G10; G11; G14; M41. In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, there has been a growing interest in investigating how stock markets behave during times of uncertainty and crisis. This is because it has been shown that stock prices seem to disconnect from fundamentals during moments of extreme uncertainty. Using earnings and returns data from publicly traded corporations for the twelve months beginning January 1, 2020, we assessed the performance of major industrial sectors during COVID-19. We also investigated the concurrent earnings/returns relation to discover whether earnings changes convey useful information during times of high uncertainty. Following prior literature along similar lines, we used firm-level earnings and returns data and estimated cross-sectional regressions to examine the earnings/returns relation. We found considerable variation in the earnings and returns data across and within the industrial sectors. Our results mostly showed a positive relationship between accounting income and concurrent stock returns, implying that accounting earnings numbers were value relevant during the pandemic. Positive earnings news (earnings increases) seemed to generate a greater market response than negative earnings news (earnings drops), leading to a shift in the overall stock market's outlook from negative to positive in the second half of 2020. These findings will help the decision-making of investors, creditors, policymakers, financial analysts, and other stakeholder groups. Contribution/Originality: The primary contribution of the study is the finding that accounting earnings are value relevant even in times of high uncertainty. The positive relationship between earnings and stock returns adds to a better understanding of the relevance of accounting earnings in company valuation during periods of high uncertainty among investors, corporations, and financial analysts.
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This paper investigates how individual attention triggers influence financial risk-taking based on a large sample of trading records from a brokerage service that sends standardized push messages on stocks to retail investors. By exploiting the data in a difference-in-differences (DID) setting, we find that attention triggers increase investors' risk-taking. Our DID coefficient implies that attention trades carry, on average, a 19 percentage-point higher leverage than non-attention trades. We provide a battery of cross-sectional analyses to identify the groups of investors and stocks for which this effect is stronger.
Article
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We study the trading of individual investors using transaction data and identifying buyer- or seller-initiated trades. We document four results: (1) Small trade order imbalance correlates well with order imbalance based on trades from retail brokers. (2) Individual investors herd. (3) When measured annually, small trade order imbalance forecasts future returns; stocks heavily bought underperform stocks heavily sold by 4.4 percentage points the following year. (4) Over a weekly horizon, small trade order imbalance reliably predicts returns, but in the opposite direction; stocks heavily bought one week earn strong returns the subsequent week, while stocks heavily sold earn poor returns.
Article
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We study the trading of individual investors using transaction data and identifying buyer- or seller-initiated trades. We document four results: (1) Small trade order imbalance correlates well with order imbalance based on trades from retail brokers. (2) Individual investors herd. (3) When measured annually, small trade order imbalance forecasts future returns; stocks heavily bought underperform stocks heavily sold by 4.4 percentage points the following year. (4) Over a weekly horizon, small trade order imbalance reliably predicts returns, but in the opposite direction; stocks heavily bought one week earn strong returns the subsequent week, while stocks heavily sold earn poor returns. The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
Article
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has affected the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. We also evaluate potential explanations for the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence we amass suggests that government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, operating with powerful effects in a service-oriented economy, are the main reasons the U.S. stock market reacted so much more forcefully to COVID-19 than to previous pandemics in 1918–1919, 1957–1958, and 1968.
Article
Market reactions to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) provide new insights into how real shocks and financial policies drive firm value. Initially, internationally oriented firms, especially those more exposed to trade with China, underperformed. As the virus spread to Europe and the United States, corporate debt and cash holdings emerged as important value drivers, relevant even after the Fed intervened in the bond market. The content and tone of conference calls mirror this development over time. Overall, the results illustrate how anticipated real effects from the health crisis, a rare disaster, were amplified through financial channels. (JEL G01, G12, G14, G32, F14) Received: May 27, 2020; editorial decision June 16, 2020 by Editor Andrew Ellul. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
Article
The rapid spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has dramatically impacted financial markets all over the world. It has created an unprecedented level of risk, causing investors to suffer significant loses in a very short period of time. This paper aims to map the general patterns of country-specific risks and systemic risks in the global financial markets. It also analyses the potential consequence of policy interventions, such as the US’ decision to implement a zero-percent interest rate and unlimited quantitative easing (QE), and how these policies may introduce further uncertainties into global financial markets.
Article
This paper highlights the enormous economic and social impact of COVID-19 with respect to articles that have either prognosticated such a large-scale event, and its economic consequences, or have assessed the impacts of other epidemics and pandemics. A consideration of possible impacts of COVID-19 on financial markets and institutions, either directly or indirectly, is briefly outlined by drawing on a variety of literatures. A consideration of the characteristics of COVID-19, along with what research suggests have been the impacts of other past events that in some ways roughly parallel COVID-19, points toward avenues of future investigation.
Article
Using a comprehensive list of terrorist attacks over three decades, we find that aggregate investor risk aversion inversely relates to terrorist activity in the United States. A one standard deviation increase in the number of attacks each month leads to a 75.09milliondropinaggregateflowstoequityfundsanda75.09 million drop in aggregate flows to equity funds and a 56.81 million increase to government bond funds. Tests on alternative channels further suggest that the shift in aggregate risk aversion is driven mainly by an emotional shock rather than changes in wealth or the outside environment. We also investigate possible alternate explanations for reduced flows to risky assets. Our evidence is consistent with a fear-induced increase in aggregate risk aversion.
Article
Using proprietary data on millions of trades by retail investors, we provide the first large-scale evidence that retail short selling predicts negative stock returns. A portfolio that mimics weekly retail shorting earns an annualized risk-adjusted return of 9%. The predictive ability of retail short selling lasts for one year and is not subsumed by institutional short selling. In contrast to institutional shorting, retail shorting best predicts returns in small stocks and those that are heavily bought by other retail investors. Our findings are consistent with retail short sellers having unique insights into the retail investor community and small firms’ fundamentals. Received May 5, 2016; editorial decision September 6, 2016 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.
Article
We compare reactions in the prices and trading patterns of common stocks and closed-end funds (CEFs), securities with substantially different investor clienteles, to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. When the market reopened 6 days later, retail investors sold and there were sharp price declines, even in assets with net institutional buying. In the subsequent 2 weeks, price reversals were substantially security specific and thus not simply due to improved systematic sentiment. Consistent with microstructure theory, comparisons between CEFs and common stocks show the speed of these reversals depended significantly on the relative quality and availability of information about fundamental values.
Article
A great number of psychological studies document the influence of emotions on individuals’ decision-making processes. This paper contributes to this literature by analyzing the possible impact of terrorism on financial trade by individual investors. Using account data for over 3000 households obtained from a large Israeli bank, we look into reactions of common stock investments to terrorist incidents in the years 1998–2002. The empirical analysis indicates that terror has a significant adverse effect on actual trade, possibly limiting the scope of risk-sharing available through traded securities. Several psychological explanations for investors’ reluctance to trade are provided. Amongst them are the increase in public fear (resulting in pessimistic risk estimates and risk averse choices); the sense of ambiguity caused by terror; repercussions of anxiety and depression disorders; a desire to avoid future regret. Our results add to the recent literature documenting the harmful effects terrorist acts have on various facets of the economy.
Risk taking during a global crisis: evidence from Wuhan
  • D Bu
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Bu, D., Hanspal, T., Liao, Y., Liu, Y., 2020. Risk taking during a global crisis: evidence from Wuhan. Working Paper.
Coronavirus recession now expected to be deeper and longer
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Lee, D., 2020. Coronavirus recession now expected to be deeper and longer. Los Angeles Times 04/01/2020. Levy, O., Galili, I., 2006. Terror and trade of individual investors. J. Socio Econ. 35, 980-991.
Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19. Review of Corporate Finance Studies
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Ramelli, S., Wagner, A.F., 2020. Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19. Review of Corporate Finance Studies. Oxford Academic. In press.
Risk taking during a global crisis: evidence from Wuhan
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Speculative retail trading and asset prices
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Coronavirus recession now expected to be deeper and longer
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