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SETI and Democracy
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Abstract
There is a wide-ranging debate about the merits and demerits of searching for, and sending messages to, extraterrestrial intelligences (SETI and METI). There is however reasonable (but not universal) consensus that replying to a message from an extraterrestrial intelligence should not be done unilaterally, without consultation with wider society and the rest of the world. But how should this consultation actually work? In this paper we discuss various ways that decision making in such a scenario could be done democratically, and gain legitimacy. In particular we consider a scientist-led response, a politician-led response, deciding a response using a referendum, and finally using citizens' assemblies. We present the results of a survey of a representative survey of 2,000 people in the UK on how they thought a response should best be determined, and finally discuss parallels to how the public is responding to scientific expertise in the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Significance
Does life’s early emergence mean that it would reappear quickly if we were to rerun Earth’s clock? If the timescale for intelligence evolution is very slow, then a quick start to life is actually necessary for our existence—and thus does not necessarily mean it is a generally quick process. Employing objective Bayesianism and a uniform-rate process assumption, we use just the chronology of life’s appearance in the fossil record, that of ourselves, and Earth’s habitability window to infer the true underlying rates accounting for this subtle selection effect. Our results find betting odds of >3:1 that abiogenesis is indeed a rapid process versus a slow and rare scenario, but 3:2 odds that intelligence may be rare.
New space is a misleading expression. Many new trends steer the evolution of space activities. Development of commercial space, with start-ups and space ventures, is one of the most visible trends in space. Stimulated by the first initiatives related to space tourism, access to space and the growing use of small satellites, space activities have attracted new entrepreneurs, both start-ups and big web actors with substantial investment capacity. This revolution started in the Silicon Valley and spread worldwide. Start-ups have attracted around $18.4 billion of investment since 2000. It is far below the annual institutional budgets but the pace gained momentum since 2006 and specially 2012.
Between teenage crisis and age of reason, New space is now old: the first start-ups shall confirm their promises, while new players pop up and try to find their way. It shakes the legacy players but they demonstrate resilience and adaptation capacity. It is now the right time to take stock of the first lessons learnt. Start-ups disrupt the established industry? Instead of a simplistic shortcut, this paper reports an “organisational ecology” study. Its ambition is to help understanding complex evolutions in the space ecosystem.
The first part of the paper introduces the current ecosystem, its actors, the key trends and the main types of activities. Through facts and figures on technology, investments and markets, the second part reviews how “new space” trends is preparing the advent of big space. The third part summarises lessons from other industries and typical disruption scenarios that could affect space activities. The drivers of New space are discussed in section four. The last part is a foresight exercise, discussing possible evolutions and impacts, threats and opportunities. The decisive role of institutional actors and the « new Newspace » with more and more space-faring nations is also highlighted.
Something big is happening in space. While it is too early to depict the new landscape, this study shows that the future picture will not be black and white but more colourful. The size and the age of the company are less important than agility, mindset, ability to manage risks and to cooperate. A big vision for the future, from entrepreneurs or from nations, is also needed.
Regulations governing METI are weak or non-existent. Post-detection SETI protocols are non-binding and too general. Vastly increased SETI capabilities, Chinese involvement in the field, and an intensified effort by METI-ists to initiate radio transmissions to the stars are among reasons cited for urgency in addressing the question of appropriate regulations. Recommendations include regulations at the agency level and laws at the national level as well as international treaties and oversight.
The debate about the wisdom of sending interstellar transmissions is well-known to those involved in SETI, and frustrating for many. Its tendency towards intractability is a result of multiple factors, including: different models of the scientist's role as citizen and/or leader; disparate ideas about society's readiness to cope with frontier science; variable political substrates, particularly ideas concerning individual freedom and state control; competing ideologies of globalization; and the perceived relative risks and benefits of contact. (Variations in the latter, i.e. assessments of the risks and benefits of contact, derive partly from different thinking styles, including tolerance for risk, and partly from inferences based upon episodes of biological and cultural contact on Earth.) Unpacking the debate into its components may be of use to those debating policy about SETI transmissions, or at the very least, help keep in focus what, precisely, the perennial arguments are really about.
We discuss the hardware design of SERENDIP IV, which will be deployed in early 1997 for a 21-cm sky survey at the National Astronomy and Ionospheric Center's 305-m radio telescope in Arecibo, Puerto Rico. SERENDIP IV is a 167 million channel spectrum analyzer, covering a 100-Mhz bandwidth, with 0.6-Hz resolution and a 1.7-s integration time. SERENDIP IV's modular design incorporates a bank of digital mixers and filters to separate the 100 MHz band into 40 2.5 MHz subbands. Each 2.5 MHz subband is further broken down into 0.6 Hz bins by means of a four million point fast Fourier transform. The resulting power spectra are analyzed by 40 high-speed processors. Narrowband signals having power significantly above background noise levels are recorded along with telescope coordinates, time, and frequency. The data are sent in real time to Berkeley for analysis.
A Dialogic Model of constructing a unified reply message is suggested in which differences between perspectives are valued, rather than minimized. In this model, a diversity of views is seen as a virtue. Consensus in the broad sense of agreeing to include multiple perspectives is encouraged, while consensus in the narrow sense of everyone agreeing about all parts of the message is seen as overly restrictive, if not impossible. In the Dialogic Model, even perspectives that are irreconcilable with one another might be included in a single reply. Drawing upon multiple perspectives allows us to expand beyond our own preconceptions, gives extraterrestrials several ways to understand our views of the world, and portrays the breadth of human concerns.Seven benefits of beginning work on a reply message immediately are identified: (1) concretely understanding the challenge of creating an adequate reply; (2) helping decode messages from extraterrestrials; (3) creating interstellar compositions as a new form of art; (4) having a reply ready in case we receive a message; (5) providing a sense of concrete accomplishment; (6) preparing for an active search strategy; and (7) gaining public support for SETI.
Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is a scientific area whose goal is to detect intelligent life outside Earth. One approach, known as radio SETI, uses radio telescopes to listen for narrow-bandwidth radio signals from space. Such signals are not known to occur naturally, so a detection would provide evidence of extraterrestrial technology. SETI@home uses millions of computers in homes and offices around the world to analyze radio signals from space. This article describes the design and implementation of SETI@home and discusses its relevance to future distributed systems. It is introduced as a new step in experimenting public-resource computing. To attract and keep users, a project must explain and justify its goals, providing compelling views of local and global progress. Screensaver graphics are an excellent medium for displays that also provide a form of viral marketing. Moreover, the success of public-resource computing projects has the ancillary benefit of increasing public awareness of science and democratizing, to an extent, the allocation of research resources.
We advocate international consultations on societal and technical issues to
address the risk problem, and a moratorium on future METI transmissions until
such issues are resolved. Instead, we recommend continuing to conduct SETI by
listening, with no innate risk, while using powerful new search systems to give
a better total probability of detection of beacons and messages than METI for
the same cost, and with no need for a long obligatory wait for a response.
Realistically, beacons are costly. In light of recent work on the economics of
contact by radio, we offer alternatives to the current standard of SETI
searches. Historical leakage from Earth has been undetectable as messages for
credible receiver systems. Transmissions ('messages') to date are faint and
very unlikely to be detected, even by very nearby stars. Future space microwave
and laser power systems will likely be more visible.
On the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) - Volume 114 Issue 1 - Richard B. Bilder
The eclectic range of artefacts and ‘messages’ we dispatch into the vast expanse of space may become one of the most enduring remnants of our present civilization, but how does his protracted legacy adequately document the plurality of societal values and common, cultural heritage on our heterogeneous world? For decades now, this rendition of the egalitarian principle has been explored by the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence community in order to draft theoretical responses to ‘who speaks for Earth?’ for hypothetical extra-terrestrial communication strategies. However, besides the moral, ethical and democratic advancements made by this particular enterprise, there remains little practical exemplars of implementing this garnered knowledge into other experimental elements that could function as mutual emissaries of Earth; physical artefacts that could provide accessible details about our present world for future archaeological observations by our space-faring progeny, potential visiting extrasolar denizens or even for posterity. While some initiatives have been founded to investigate this enduring dilemma of humanity over the last half-century, there are very few comparative studies in regards to how these objects, time capsules and transmission events collectively disseminate content about the aggregate of our species and the Earth system it inhabits. This catalogue, assembled for extended study as part of the Beyond the Earth foundation , is intended as an initial, dialogic step towards evaluating such a ‘profile of humanity’. This investigation will endeavour to collate all cultural resources that can presently be garnered from spacecraft (non-mission orientated, cultural material that conveys an impression of Earth) and non-terrestrial transmissions (electromagnetic signals that are intentionally aimed off-world to embody humanities’ evolving, philosophical identity) in the expanse beyond our planetary borders in order to cross-analyse how we presently illustrate the diversity of our planet before, subsequently, deducing how we could appropriately depict our collective human civilization [and biosphere] within deep space and cosmic time.
In this compelling book, leading scientists and historians explore the Drake Equation, which guides modern astrobiology's search for life beyond Earth. First used in 1961 as the organising framework for a conference in Green Bank, West Virginia, it uses seven factors to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilisations in our galaxy. Using the equation primarily as a heuristic device, this engaging text examines the astronomical, biological, and cultural factors that determine the abundance or rarity of life beyond Earth and provides a thematic history of the search for extraterrestrial life. Logically structured to analyse each of the factors in turn, and offering commentary and critique of the equation as a whole, contemporary astrobiological research is placed in a historical context. Each factor is explored over two chapters, discussing the pre-conference thinking and a modern analysis, to enable postgraduates and researchers to better assess the assumptions that guide their research.
Understanding the controversy over "Messages to Extra Terrestrial Intelligence" or METI requires a grounding in the history and rationale of SETI (Search for ETI). Insights since the turn of the century have changed SETI's scientific basis. Continued null results from the radio search do not invalidate continuing effort, but they do raise questions about long-held assumptions. Modified search strategies are discussed. The Great Silence or Fermi Paradox is appraised, along with the disruptive plausibility of interstellar travel. Psychological motivations for METI are considered. With this underpinning, we consider why a small cadre of SETI-ist radio astronomers have resisted the notion of international consultations before humanity takes a brash and irreversible step into METI, shouting our presence into the cosmos.
A globalized world, some argue, needs a global democracy. But there is considerable disagreement about whether global democracy is an ideal worth pursuing. One of the main grounds for scepticism is captured by the slogan: "No global demos, no global democracy." The fact that a key precondition of democracy-a demos-is absent at the global level, some argue, speaks against the pursuit of global democracy. I discuss four interpretations of the skeptical slogan-each based on a specific account of the notion of "the demos"-and conclude that none of them establishes that the global democratic ideal must be abandoned. In so doing, I systematize different types of objections against global democracy, thus bringing some clarity to an otherwise intricate debate, and offer a robust but qualified defense of the global democratic ideal.
I propose that the IAF and the International Astronomical Union establish a joint committee that will create a reply message to respond to a confirmed extraterrestrial signal. The goal of this committee will be to reach a consensus among the international intellectual community as to the contents of such a reply. If this reply message exists before a signal is detected, it will deflect pressure to send non-international replies and will focus attention on the desirability of having the Earth speak with one voice to our neighbor civilizations.
Long recognized as the Gold Standard text for astrobiology courses, The Search for Life in the Universe now appears in a completely revised and updated Third Edition. This book engages students in astronomy by presenting a great, unsolved mystery: How likely is life beyond earth, and how can we find it if it exists? The text covers the fundamentals of astronomy and astrophysics, including the discovery of more than 55 planets around other stars, and also provides an overview of biology, geology, evolution, and the possibilities of interstellar travel and communication. Written for readers with no background in mathematics, the book includes 24 color insert pages and brilliantly rendered illustrations by Jon Lomberg.
Throughout the entire history of terrestrial civilization, only four projects involving transmitting of interstellar radio messages (IRMs) have yet been fully developed and realized. Nevertheless, we should understand a simple thing -- if all civilizations in the Universe are only recipients, and not message-sending civilizations, than no SETI searches make any sense. We present the theory and methodology of composing and transmitting of future IRMs.
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