Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution

Abstract

A mess of plastic
It is not clear what strategies will be most effective in mitigating harm from the global problem of plastic pollution. Borrelle et al. and Lau et al. discuss possible solutions and their impacts. Both groups found that substantial reductions in plastic-waste generation can be made in the coming decades with immediate, concerted, and vigorous action, but even in the best case scenario, huge quantities of plastic will still accumulate in the environment.
Science , this issue p. 1515 , p. 1455

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Cite as: W. W. Y. Lau et al., Science
10.1126/science.aba9475 (2020).
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Table 1. Plastic mass; percent of total plastic demand under different end of life fates for year 2016 and for year 2040 under
the ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU) and ‘System Change’ scenarios (SCS); and percent change in plastic mass under different end
of life fates for SCS in 2040 relative to 2016 and BAU in 2040.
End of life fate
Plastic mass (Mt/y)
95% CI
Fate as % plastic demand
95% CI
SCS 2040% change
95% CI
2016
BAU 2040
SCS 2040
2016
BAU 2040
SCS 2040
2016
BAU 2040
Reduction
0
0, 0
0
0, 0
130
110, 150
0
0, 0
0
0, 0
31
28, 33
—
—
Substitution
0
0, 0
0
0, 0
71
62, 81
0
0, 0
0
0, 0
17
15, 18
—
—
Recycling
31
26, 32
55
46, 63
84
75, 93
14
12, 15
13
11, 15
20
18, 21
170
140, 200
54
46, 61
Disposal
97
83, 97
140
120, 150
100
89, 110
44
39, 45
32
28, 33
24
22, 26
3.5
3.3, 3.8
–26
–24, –28
Mismanaged
91
84, 100
240
220, 260
44
40, 49
42
41, 47
56
53, 59
10
9.4, 12
–51
–48, –54
–81
–76, –87
Open burn*
49
40, 60
130
110, 160
23
18, 29
54
42, 63
56
44, 65
53
41, 65
–53
–45, –61
–82
–70, –95
Dumpsite*
12
7.4, 21
25
14, 41
3.2
1.5, 5.0
13
8.2, 22
11
5.9, 17
7.3
3.3, 11
–74
–49, –99
–87
–54, –120
Aquatic pollution*
11
9.0, 14
29
23, 37
5.3
3.8, 7.0
12
9.8, 14
12
9.8, 15
12
9.0, 15
–52
–43, –60
–82
–68, –95
Terrestrial pollution*
18
13, 25
52
34, 70
12
7.8, 18
20
13, 27
22
14, 29
28
18, 39
–33
–23, –42
–76
–55, –97
*Components of the mismanaged end of life fate. These categories sum to the total for mismanaged waste.
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Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution
Milan M. Petit, U. Rashid Sumaila, Emily Neil, Mark V. Bernhofen, Keith Lawrence and James E. Palardy
Laura Koerselman, Edward Kosior, Enzo Favoino, Jutta Gutberlet, Sarah Baulch, Meera E. Atreya, David Fischer, Kevin K. He,
Julien Boucher, Margaret B. Murphy, Richard C. Thompson, Emilia Jankowska, Arturo Castillo Castillo, Toby D. Pilditch, Ben Dixon,
Winnie W. Y. Lau, Yonathan Shiran, Richard M. Bailey, Ed Cook, Martin R. Stuchtey, Julia Koskella, Costas A. Velis, Linda Godfrey,
published online July 23, 2020
ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/07/22/science.aba9475
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SUPPLEMENTARY http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2020/07/22/science.aba9475.DC1
REFERENCES http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/07/22/science.aba9475#BIBL
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