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Internal Migration in Iran
Abstract
With a population over 80 million, Iran is located in western South Asia. Internal migration data have been collected since 1956, primarily by means of decennial censuses, with questions focusing on lifetime, last residence, and recent (five-year) migration since 2011, duration of residence, reasons for moving and mover characteristics. The 2016 Census data show that Iranians are moderately mobile with an ACMI around 12%. Iran displays a late migration profile, with peaks at 25 for females and 23 for males. Early peaks for males, caused by military service, are followed by another employment-related peak at 32. With nearly 75% of its population residing in cities, Iran is now one of the most urbanised countries in Asia. At an advanced early stage in the urban transition, Iran has been dominated by urban-to-urban migration since the mid-2000s. Low levels of migration effectiveness coupled with low intensities underpin limited population redistribution. Spatial patterns reflect socioeconomic inequalities with net population gains in central provinces around Tehran that turn negative in the east and west peripheries of the country. While limited, population movement has triggered policy concerns about housing costs, traffic congestion in destination areas, and questions around the ageing and feminisation of rural populations.
... A large number of people moved from war affected areas to Isfahan during eight years of war (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988). This period of mass people movement has reflected very well in the slope of the chart in Fig. 7. Most of the people settled in the core and satellite cities (Sadeghi et al., 2020). In addition to this internal displacement, a large number of immigrants from Afghanistan also migrated to the region. ...
... Isfahan city-region still absorbs people because newcomers have social and family ties with people who immigrated to this part of the country during wartime. Environmental immigration has been accelerated by severe drought and evacuation of villages in the countryside (Khavarian-Garmsir et al., 2019;Sadeghi et al., 2020). (5) Spatial (urban) planning factors Four out of 10 the first generation of new towns in the country have been in this urban-region, namely Fooladshahr close to the Foolad Mobarakeh factory, which as based on the Soviet model of accommodating factory workers (Friedmann, 2000), Shahinshahr, Iran's first planned satellite city before the Islamic Revolution in 1972, close to the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company in the north. ...
Urban sprawl is a universal phenomenon and can be seen as a city’s low-density and haphazard development from the centre to suburban areas, and it has different adverse environmental effects at local and regional scales, including increasing the cost of infrastructure. Geospatial data and technology can be used to measure urban sprawl and predict urban expansion. This technology can shed light on the characteristics, causes, and consequences of urban expansion. Unlike other studies, the methodology proposed in this paper works on a regional level rather than an individual city. In this article, Land Use Land Cover changes and the magnitude and direction of city-region sprawl in the Isfahan Metropolitan area were modelled using a multi-temporal analysis of remote sensing imagery. Shannon’s Entropy was used to quantify city-region dispersion during the last fifty years. A Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain Analysis were then used to forecast future city-region sprawl based on past patterns and physical constraints. The results revealed that this region has been suffering from sprawl during this period in different directions. Moreover, it will continue in specific directions due to several economic, political, demographic, environmental, and (urban) planning factors. In addition, the size and speed of city-region sprawl were higher than core city sprawl. The proposed approach can be generalized for other city-regions with a similar spatial structure.
... In this scenario, the soil compaction reduces its permeability and hence the aquifers' ability to be recharged, leading to a decline in both the rate and the total volume of recharge. Another factor influencing groundwater recharge is the changes in LUC, as several regions in Iran have experienced extensive deforestation, desertification, and rapid urbanization [46][47][48][49][50][51] . ...
Groundwater recharge feeds aquifers supplying fresh-water to a population over 80 million in Iran—a global hotspot for groundwater depletion. Using an extended database comprising abstractions from over one million groundwater wells, springs, and qanats, from 2002 to 2017, here we show a significant decline of around −3.8 mm/yr in the nationwide groundwater recharge. This decline is primarily attributed to unsustainable water and environmental resources management, exacerbated by decadal changes in climatic conditions. However, it is important to note that the former’s contribution outweighs the latter. Our results show the average annual amount of nationwide groundwater recharge (i.e., ~40 mm/yr) is more than the reported average annual runoff in Iran (i.e., ~32 mm/yr), suggesting the surface water is the main contributor to groundwater recharge. Such a decline in groundwater recharge could further exacerbate the already dire aquifer depletion situation in Iran, with devastating consequences for the country’s natural environment and socio-economic development.
... This finding could be attributed to increasing female labor force participation in urban areas (Majbouri, 2016). Given such a sharp decline in rural FFHs' material-well-being, if multilateral sanctions remain effective, a wave of rural-urban migration might occura population movement that has been subsiding recently (Sadeghi et al., 2020). In addition to a regional disparity, we also discover a gender gap with respect to trends in material well-being, especially in rural areas. ...
In the recent decade, the number of female-headed households has been growing in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has been shown that Iranian female heads struggle with numerous socio-economic challenges. Yet, various aspects of their economic well-being remain unknown. Over the same period, sanction-induced economic pressure inflicted a wide range of economic difficulties on Iranian households. This paper investigates how Iranian female-headed households’ material well-being has changed over the past decade compared with male-headed ones. In particular, we focus on two consecutive time frames: post-sanctions and post-nuclear deal periods. Using household-level data first, we create income and consumption-based measures of material well-being, and then we investigate changes in these measures relying on OLS and quantile regressions. We find that female-headed households’ material well-being has declined during the sanctions period. We also discover urban–rural, gender, and class disparities in terms of material well-being losses. Indeed, rural economically disadvantaged female-headed households seem to be more vulnerable to adverse sanctions-induced shocks than other households. Our analysis of the post-nuclear deal period reveals that the progressively declining trend in female-headed households’ material well-being appears to be stopped during this period.
... Iran is a developing country located in the Middle East of Asia with a population of approximately 83 million in 2020 (Sadeghi et al., 2020). The Iranian healthcare system is based on three pillars: the publicgovernmental system, the private sector and non-governmental organizations. ...
Aim:
To investigate the association between the nurses' perception of the public image (PI) of nursing and the quality of nursing work life (QNWL).
Design:
A descriptive correlational study.
Methods:
250 nurses of 12 hospitals affiliated with Tabriz University of Medical Sciences were sampled using a proportionate stratified sampling technique. Porter Nursing Image Scale and Brooks QNWL Scale were used for collecting data.
Results:
There was a significant positive correlation between nurses' perception of their public image and QNWL (r = .158, p = .012). Nurses' perception of their PI along with other significant predictors including gender, age, position, work shifts, residency, financial status, level of family support, spouse's education and spouse's job significantly explained 15.2% of the predictability of QNWL (F(10,175) = 3.017, p = .001). Findings imply that enhancement of nurses' psychological status (nurses' perception of the public image of their profession) may improve their functional status (quality of nursing work life).
In response to escalating congestion and deteriorating air quality in urban centers worldwide, exacerbated by overburdened transportation systems, there is an urgent need for accurate traffic forecasting and effective sustainable urban development strategies. This study employs agent-based modeling through four distinctive scenarios for Tehran, I. R. Iran. A synthetic population is meticulously crafted using simulated annealing, enabling the emulation of daily commuting patterns. Results show that by bolstering cycling infrastructure and enhancing public transportation services, reliance on private cars is reduced up to 46%. The introduction of flexible working hours reduces the traffic volumes during peak traffic hours by 47% and significantly altering the daily distances traveled by personal cars, as evidenced by a 1:6 ratio in car volume increase between scenarios emphasizing flexible working hours and those with more conventional traffic patterns. The results provide powerful insights for decision makers to manage the traffic especially in high polluted air conditions
Since 1970, Iran has experienced dramatic environmental, political, and socioeconomic changes and events. All these events have impacted and shaped the urbanized landscape in Iran during the past 50 years. This article provides an overview of those factors influencing the socio-spatial patterns during this half-century of urbanization and highlights the current challenges that confront Iran’s cities.
Poverty maps are shown to be of the best tools in economic policy design in poverty alleviation programs. This study uses small area estimation method to calculate the poverty headcount ratio for rural and urban areas of 397 counties of Iran. We use the "Household Expenditures and Income Survey" (HEIS) 2014 by "Statistical Center of Iran" (SCI), and 2011 Census (a 2% random sample), and some macro county-and province-level data to build models to estimate household per capita expenditures. 60 urban/rural provincial regions are divided into 13 clusters using k-means clustering method. For each of these clusters a model is built to estimate the expenditures. As usual in small area methods, we use survey data to estimate the model parameters and apply the model to census data to estimate the desired variable for each household. Regional poverty headcount ratio is then calculated for each of 794 urban/rural regions of counties.
Background: It is well established that migrants are a selected group with respect to a number of characteristics, including education. However, the extent to which the degree of educational selectivity varies between countries remains unclear.
Objective: We assess the educational selectivity of internal migrants for a global sample of 56 countries that represent over 65% of the world population.
Methods: We fit binomial logistic regression to individual-level census data drawn from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-International (IPUMS). For each country, we regress migration against educational attainment and include a set of individual-level control variables and urban status of current place of residence. We report results for individual countries and estimate global and regional population-weighted means.
Results: Globally, compared to individuals with no formal education, those with primary education are 1.7 times more likely to move, those with secondary education 2.9 times, and those with tertiary education 4.2 times. Once control variables are added, the effect of education decreases to 1.1, 1.2, and 2.3 times for primary, secondary, and tertiary education respectively. In all countries but Haiti tertiary education has a positive, statistically significant impact on migration, and in 80% of countries both secondary and tertiary education significantly increase the odds of migrating.
Conclusions: The results lend unequivocal support to the hypothesis that the likelihood to move increases with educational attainment while revealing significant variations between and within regions.
Contribution: This study has uncovered a near universal empirical regularity in the effect of education on migration while revealing limited educational selectivity in Latin America. Variations in the degree of educational selectivity indicate that the effect of education on migration decision is subtle, varied, and specific to the national context and is not a function of the level of human development as originally anticipated.
Migration is one of the prime forces behind social and technological change all over the world. Therefore, it is very important to any country to become aware of spatial changes of country population and concern proper actions for prevention of unwanted situations. In national scale, migrations between provinces is one of the imperative representations and spatial reflections of dominant structures whose addressing can provide proper recognition about population dynamics in this level. For this purpose in this research, we have paid attention to descriptive– explanatory research methods, using UCINET 6 software and public population and housing census results (2011), network and tree diagram analysis, to the migration between provinces. The results of analysis were presented in the form of analytical diagrams and show that several main clusters are between province migrations have been formed with different flow rates and finally join the main cluster (Tehran and Alboraz Provinces). In addition, some provinces have been able to play regional role in the attraction of immigrants from nearby provinces which include: Alborz, Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, Booshehr and Khorasan-e Razavi.
Keywords: Migration, Network Analysis, Between Province Exchanges, UCINET, Iran.
While considerable progress has been made in understanding the way particular aspects of internal migration, such as its intensity, age profile and spatial impact, vary between countries around the world, little attention to date has been given to establishing how these dimensions of migration interact in different national settings. We use recently developed measures of internal migration that are scale-independent to compare the overall intensity, age composition, spatial impact, and distance profile of internal migration in 19 Latin American countries. Comparisons reveal substantial cross-national variation but cluster analysis suggests the different dimensions of migration evolve systematically to form a broad sequence characterised by low intensities, young ages at migration, unbalanced flows and high friction of distance at lower levels of development, trending to high intensities, an older age profile of migration, more closely balanced flows and lower friction of distance at later stages of development. However, the transition is not linear and local contingencies, such as international migration and political control, often distort the migration-development nexus, leading to unique migration patterns in individual national contexts.
We know that internal migration shapes human settlement patterns but few attempts have been made to measure systematically the extent of population redistribution or make comparisons between countries. Robust comparisons are hampered by limited data access, different space-time frameworks and inadequate summary statistics. We use new analysis software (IMAGE Studio) to assess the effects of differences in the number and configuration of geographic zones and implement new measures to make comparisons across a large sample of countries, representing 80 per cent of global population. We construct a new Index of Net Migration Impact (INMI) to measure system-wide population redistribution and examine the relative contributions of migration intensity and effectiveness to cross-national variations. We compare spatial patterns using the slope of a regression between migration and population density across zones in each country to indicate the direction and pace of population concentration. We report correlations between measures of population redistribution and national development and propose a general theoretical model suggesting how internal migration redistributes population across settlement systems during the development process.
BACKGROUND: Age patterns are a key dimension to compare migration between countries and over time. Comparative metrics can be reliably computed only if data capture the underlying age distribution of migration. Model schedules, the prevailing smoothing method, fit a composite exponential function, but are sensitive to function selection and initial parameter setting. Although non-parametric alternatives exist, their performance is yet to be established. OBJECTIVE: We compare cubic splines and kernel regressions against model schedules by assessing which method provides an accurate representation of the age profile and best performs on metrics for comparing aggregate age patterns. METHOD: We use full population microdata for Chile to perform 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for nine sample sizes and two spatial scales. We use residual and graphic analysis to assess model performance on the age and intensity at which migration peaks and the evolution of migration age patterns. RESULTS: Model schedules generate a better fit when (1) the expected distribution of the age profile is known a priori, (2) the pre-determined shape of the model schedule adequately describes the true age distribution, and (3) the component curves and initial parameter values can be correctly set. When any of these conditions is not met, kernel regressions and cubic splines offer more reliable alternatives. CONCLUSION: Smoothing models should be selected according to research aims, age profile characteristics, and sample size. Kernel regressions and cubic splines enable a precise representation of aggregate migration age profiles for most sample sizes, without requiring parameter setting or imposing a pre-determined distribution, and therefore facilitate objective comparison.
Migration is the principal demographic process shaping patterns of human settlement, and it serves an essential role in human development. While progress has been made in measuring international migration, internal migration statistics are as yet poorly developed in many countries. This article draws on a repository of data established under the IMAGE (Internal Migration Around the GlobE) project to address this deficit by constructing the first comprehensive league table of internal migration intensities for countries around the world. We review previous work, outline the major impediments to making reliable comparisons, and set out a methodology that combines a novel estimation procedure with a flexible spatial aggregation facility. We present the results in the form of league tables of aggregate crude migration intensities that capture all changes of address over one-year or five-year intervals for 96 countries, representing four-fifths of the global population. Explanation for the observed differences has been sought, inter alia, in historical, structural, cultural, and economic forces. We examine the links between development and migration intensity through simple correlations using a range of demographic, economic, and social variables. Results reveal clear associations between internal migration intensities and selected indicators of national development.
The increasing discussion of the relationship between migration and development attention is focused almost entirely on voluntary migration. Little attention is given to the development of consequences and potential of forced migration. Yet, forced migration, especially refugees, makes up a significant proportion of international moves, most of it being south-south in nature. While the raison d’etre of forced migration is fleeing persecution and seeking refuge from it, the migration can have important economic outcomes. This paper addresses this issue by examining the educational and occupational outcomes of Afghan refugees in Iran. There is significant upward mobility among the refugees, especially between the first and second generations. It is argued that this represents potential for facilitating development.
The frequency with which people move home has important implications for national economic performance and the well-being of individuals and families. Much contemporary social and migration theory posits that the world is becoming more mobile, leading to the recent ‘mobilities turn’ within the social sciences. Yet, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this may not be true of all types of mobility, nor apply equally to all geographical contexts. For example, it is now clear that internal migration rates have been falling in the USA since at least the 1980s. To what extent might this trend be true of other developed countries? Drawing on detailed empirical literature, Internal Migration in the Developed World examines the long-term trends in internal migration in a variety of more advanced countries to explore the factors that underpin these changes. Using case studies of the USA, UK, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Germany and Italy, this pioneering book presents a critical assessment of the extent to which global structural forces, as opposed to national context, influence internal migration in the Global North. Internal Migration in the Developed World fills the void in this neglected aspect of migration studies and will appeal to a wide disciplinary audience of researchers and students working in Geography, Migration Studies, Population Studies and Development Studies. © 2018 selection and editorial matter, Tony Champion, Thomas Cooke and Ian Shuttleworth; individual chapters, the contributors.
This unique book introduces an essential element in applied demographic analysis: a tool-kit for describing, smoothing, repairing and - in instances of totally missing data - inferring directional migration flows. Migration rates combine with fertility and mortality rates to shape the evolution of human populations. Demographers have found that all three generally exhibit persistent regularities in their age and spatial patterns, when changing levels are controlled for. Drawing on statistical descriptions of such regularities, it is often possible to improve the quality of the available data by smoothing irregular data, imposing the structures of borrowed and related data on unreliable data, and estimating missing data by indirect methods. Model migration schedules and log-linear models are presented as powerful methods for helping population researchers, historical demographers, geographers, and migration analysts work with the data available to them.
This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses annual inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of economic cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16–24 years old in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of higher education. The findings suggest that unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. If there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the within-area moves that this time series does not cover. This latter possibility is examined in a companion paper using a very different data set. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
We develop and demonstrate the application of a concise set of measures intended to encapsulate key features of the age profile of internal migration and highlight the significant differences that exist between nations in these profiles. Model schedules have been the most common method of comparing internal migration patterns but issues related to the estimation and interpretation of their parameters hinder their use for cross-national comparison. We demonstrate that the interpretation of exponential coefficients as rates of ascent and descent does not best reflect the slopes of migration age profiles, and we propose more consistent measures based on the rate of change in migration intensity. We demonstrate, through correlation and factor analysis, that most of the inter-country variance in migration age profiles is captured by the age at and intensity of peak migration. The application of these two indicators to 25 countries reveals significant differences between regions.
Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambiguities about the effect of improving education as assessed using a global set of national time series. The results show consistently strong effects of improving overall levels of educational attainment, of a narrowing gender gap in education, and of fertility declines and the subsequent changes in age structure on improvements in the democracy indicator. This global relationship is then applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past two decades Iran has experienced the world's most rapid fertility decline associated with massive increases in female education. The results show that based on the experience of 120 countries since 1970, Iran has a high chance of significant movement toward more democracy over the following two decades.
"Micro-level theories of why households change residence contrast with macro-level approaches that relate the level of spatial mobility to development. This article compares the rate of residential mobility in 16 [developed] countries or other areas and examines both regional variations within countries and changes in rates of local and nonlocal moving. Hypotheses that explain why countries differ in rates of residential mobility are examined."
This paper addresses the issue of the relationship between internal migration rates at NUTS 2 level and economic developments. For five European countries, several hypotheses were tested on three groups of economic variables: general business cycle indicators, financial variables as well as variables reflecting more structural labour market developments. The empirical analysis is based on first differences of all variables. Although some support was found for all of the hypotheses tested but one, the main conclusion is that there is a stable relationship between GDP per capita and internal migration that is highly similar across countries. Copyright (c) 2008 by the Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG.
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