Alpine ecosystems occur above the bioclimatic treeline and support cryophilic plant communities with high endemism, which are governed by low temperatures and short growing seasons. However, the climate of many alpine ecosystems is changing rapidly with warming temperatures, declining snow cover and lengthening growing seasons. Alpine vegetation dynamics in response to changes in climate over recent decades have been observed via long-term ecological monitoring techniques, but such studies are less common in the southern hemisphere including in the marginal alpine ecosystems of the Australian Alps. Therefore, the scale, ecological processes and implications of climate-induced dynamics are less clear for this important ecological, cultural and socioeconomic region. The central aim of this thesis is to understand the responses of vegetation in the largest contiguous alpine area in the Australian Alps, the Kosciuszko alpine area, to climate change over recent decades across varying spatial scales.
To assess the status, distribution, themes and evolution of research examining alpine vegetation in relation to climate change, a multi-component bibliometric literature review was conducted (Chapter 2). Globally, there were 3,143 publications relating to climate change and alpine vegetation, with research on this topic exceeding the rate of increase apparent for research in general, which likely reflects the pronounced changes observed recently in alpine ecosystems. However, geographic disparities were apparent when continental alpine areas were compared with research outputs. Temporally, there was a shift in research from treelines to grasslands, largely driven by increasing research about the Tibetan Plateau, but there are still relatively few studies on cryophilic and periglacial communities. Traditional, field-based ecological monitoring techniques were often used, but increasingly remote sensing techniques are providing valuable insights. The review highlights the importance of this topic, changes in methods and technology, and important thematic and geographic research gaps including relatively limited research in the southern hemisphere.
Beginning at the microscale (metres), microclimate and vegetation dynamics along snowmelt gradients over 13 years were assessed in critically endangered snowpatch communities in the Kosciuszko alpine area (Chapter 3). Specifically, snowmelt zones were delineated using continuous soil temperature monitoring while vegetation composition was assessed using data from of 84 permanently-marked 1 m2 quadrats surveyed in 2007 and 2013, combined with new data from a survey in 2020 conducted as part of this thesis. Microclimatic changes were most pronounced in the late melt zone, where growing seasons have lengthened and temperatures have warmed, with the initially distinct microclimates of each melt zone becoming more similar over time. Alongside these microclimatic changes, there was increasing cover of graminoids and declining cover of snowpatch specialists in the mid and late melt zones, but diversity remained relatively stable across the three surveys. There were changes in composition as well as community-weighted traits and strategies, with vegetation increasingly dominated by taller species with larger leaves resulting in a shift from ruderal-tolerant to stress-tolerant compositions over time. With the climate continuing to warm, the loss of defining abiotic and biotic characteristics of snowpatches may lead to ecosystem collapse via replacement by a novel ecosystem.
Moving up to mesoscale dynamics (hectares), microclimate and vegetation dynamics of common alpine plant communities were assessed over 15 years along an elevation gradient in the Kosciuszko alpine area (Chapter 4). Specifically, microclimatic data were obtained from continuous soil temperature monitoring. Vegetation composition data were obtained from permanently-marked plots on five ~ 1 ha summits surveyed in 2004 and 2011, along with new data from a survey in 2019 conducted as part of this thesis. At this mesoscale, soil temperatures increased through time and were correlated to air temperatures. While species richness increased over time, diversity declined as a result of biotic homogenisation driven by the increasing cover of generalist and thermophilic graminoids and shrubs via densification and in-filling. There were also elevation-dependant changes in cover and composition with increasing dominance of shrubs at lower elevations and graminoids at higher elevations, with the most pronounced changes in composition at higher elevations. As climate-induced vegetation dynamics intensify with further warming, there are important implications for increasing potential for novel biotic interactions along elevation gradients as well as increasing biomass and landscape flammability in this alpine area.
Finally, to understand macroscale (kilometres) and longer-term dynamics over three decades in response to climate change and the landscape-level wildfires in 2003, changes across the whole Kosciuszko alpine area (~455 km2) were assessed (Chapter 5). Changes in climate were identified including increasing temperatures (1910-2019), precipitation (1900-2019) becoming more seasonally variable and declining snow cover (1954-2021), with the most rapid changes in recent decades. Then, vegetation cover and zonation were modelled using optimised random forest classification of Landsat growing season composites for 1990, 2000, 2010 & 2020. Concurrent with recent changes in climate, the cover of woodlands has increased via densification at lower elevations but there has been treeline stasis, except where wildfires resulted in treeline recession. Heathlands were mostly replaced by woodlands at lower elevations and shrublines have advanced upslope, however wildfire led to suppression of upslope movement in burnt areas as grasslands replaced burnt heathlands at higher elevations. Small increases in the cover of screelands were associated with drought and loss of vegetation during the less extensive 2020 wildfires. Finally, wildfire led to increasing cover of grasslands, which recovered rapidly in areas burnt in 2003 but were replaced by heathlands and woodlands by 2020. With increasing landscape flammability and fire weather conditions associated with climate change in this alpine area, some vegetation dynamics may be incremental in response to relatively gradual climatic changes while others may be transformative in response to wildfires.
Overall, this thesis provides novel insights and addresses important knowledge gaps regarding how alpine vegetation responds to climate change, particularly in the Australian Alps. Specifically, the climate has changed rapidly over recent decades with warmer temperatures, lengthening growing seasons, more variable precipitation and declining snow cover, all of which are abiotic determinants of alpine vegetation. In response, there has been increasing cover of generalist and thermophilic competitive taxa and subsequent declines in cryophilic taxa. Climate-induced responses may be amplified along elevation and snowmelt gradients, with fire regulating woody advances upslope but not encroachment via densification at lower elevations. With the cumulative loss of abiotic and biotic factors conditions that governed the distribution of alpine vegetation in the past, as well as the increasing risk of wildfire, the stability and persistence of the Kosciuszko alpine flora is in question. Without effective climate action alongside the mitigation of threats such as invasive species, wildfire and recreation impacts, further vegetation dynamics changes seem imminent.