Analysis of livestock breeders’ perceptions and their adaptation measures to climate change in Morocco‘s arid rangelands

Abstract

The high plateaus of eastern Morocco are already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate change (CC), as the local populations’ livelihoods depend mainly on extensive sheep farming and therefore on natural resources. This research identifies breeders’ perceptions about CC, examines whether they correspond to the recorded climate data and analyses endogenous adaptation practices taking into account the agroecological characteristics of the studied sites and the difference between breeders’ categories based on the size of owned sheep herd. Data on perceptions and adaptation were analyzed using the Chi-square independence and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Climate data were investigated through Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Buishand tests.
Herders’ perceptions are in line with the climate analysis in term of nature and direction of observed climate variations (downward trend in rainfall and upward in temperature). In addition, there is a significant difference in the adoption frequency of adaptive strategies between the studied agroecological sub-zones (χ ² = 14.525, p <.05) due to their contrasting biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, as well as among breeders’ categories (χ ² = 10.568, p < .05) which attributed mainly to the size of sheep flock. Policy options aimed to enhance local-level adaptation should formulate site-specific adaptation programs and prioritise the small-scale herders.

Full text

Change Adaptation Socioecol. Syst. 2020; 6: 125
Research Article
Wadii Snaibi*
Analysis of livestock breeders’ perceptions and
their adaptation measures to climate change in
Morocco‘s arid rangelands
https://doi.org/10.1515/cass-2020-0100
received April 25, 2019; accepted June 8, 2020
Abstract: The high plateaus of eastern Morocco are
already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate
change (CC), as the local populations’ livelihoods
depend mainly on extensive sheep farming and
therefore on natural resources. This research identifies
breeders’ perceptions about CC, examines whether they
correspond to the recorded climate data and analyses
endogenous adaptation practices taking into account the
agroecological characteristics of the studied sites and the
difference between breeders’ categories based on the size
of owned sheep herd. Data on perceptions and adaptation
were analyzed using the Chi-square independence and
Kruskal-Wallis tests. Climate data were investigated
through Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Buishand tests.
Herders’ perceptions are in line with the climate
analysis in term of nature and direction of observed climate
variations (downward trend in rainfall and upward in
temperature). In addition, there is a significant difference
in the adoption frequency of adaptive strategies between
the studied agroecological sub-zones (χ2 = 14.525, p < .05)
due to their contrasting biophysical and socioeconomic
conditions, as well as among breeders’ categories (χ2
= 10.568, p < .05) which attributed mainly to the size of
sheep flock. Policy options aimed to enhance local-level
adaptation should formulate site-specific adaptation
programs and prioritise the small-scale herders.
Keywords: climate change; perception; adaptation;
livestock breeders; arid rangelands; Morocco.
1 Introduction
Climate change (CC) is unequivocal and its several
impacts on human and natural systems are widespread
worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Africa is one of the continents
most vulnerable to climate change (IPCC, 2007). This
vulnerability is mainly due to the low level of economic
development in its countries, thus generating a weak
and limited adaptive capacity to cope with the harmful
effects of CC (Bruckner, 2012). Among North African
countries, Morocco is considered to be the most
vulnerable to CC, owing to the combination of high
exposure to climate impacts (climate trends in the recent
past and probably in the future are evolving towards
warmer and drier conditions coupled with the increase
in the frequency of extreme events), pronounced
climate sensitivity (dependency on rain-fed agriculture,
water stress) and weak generic adaptive capacity (low
income per capita and its unequal distribution) (Yohe
et al., 2006; Schilling et al., 2012). Morocco is already
experiencing CC impacts. The climate trends observed
during the period from 1960 to 2005 show an increase in
aridity toward the north of the country (Mokssit, 2012)
with an increase in mean annual temperature from
1.0 to more than 1.8°C, while precipitation underwent
a general decline ranged from 3 to 30% (Maroc, 2016).
Drought has increased during the last three decades
in terms of frequency, intensity and length (Moroccan
Meteorological Office, 2007). According to future
climate projections in Morocco, total annual rainfall
could drop by 10 to 20% by 2100 (Mokssit, 2012; Maroc,
2016) while the temperature would rise and could reach
1.0 to 1.2°C by 2050 respectively under the SRES (Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios) B1 and A1B scenario
conditions (Schilling et al., 2012). Also, the probability
of occurrence of droughts would upsurge in the future
(Bzioui, 2012; Schilling et al., 2012).
Within this context, the high plateaus of eastern
Morocco (HPEM), which are one of the country’s largest
*Corresponding author: Wadii Snaibi, Morocco National Institute
of Agronomic Research, Regional Center of Agronomic Research
of Oujda, 10 Bd Mohamed VI, P.O. Box 428, Oujda, Morocco,
Email: snaibi.wadii@gmail.com
Open Access. © 2020 Wadii Snaibi, published by De Gruyter. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons
Attribution alone 4.0 License.

2 Wadii Snaibi
pastoral ecosystems, covering about 35,000 Km2, already
suffering from the effects of CC (Maroc, 2010).
The HPEM have shown widespread manifestations of
drier and warmer conditions in recent decades generated
by the notorious decrease in rainfall levels, particularly
since the mid-1970s (Born et al., 2008; Fink et al., 2010)
and the increase of the occurrence of droughts (Moroccan
Meteorological Office, 2007).
The pastoralism, based mostly on the sheep
farming, is the main livelihood and job provider for
the local population. Indeed, the climate change has
become a reality in the rangelands of the HPEM, with
negative consequences on both human activities and
the natural environment. In this pastoral ecosystem,
the phenomenon of CC is at the basis of many of its
socio-economic and environmental deregulations
and dynamics. Livestock breeding activity on natural
rangelands is highly vulnerable to CC due to its strong
dependence on climate conditions (Bechchari et al.,
2014), which, in this region, are characterized by
intra and inter-annual variability in precipitation and
recurrent droughts (Mahyou et al., 2010; Bechchari et al.,
2014). Actually, pastoral activity can be severely affected
by the adverse impacts of extreme climate events, as it is
practiced in fragile and marginal environments such as
dryland ecosystems. These arid lands present an intrinsic
natural vulnerability generated by a high exposure to a
significant water stress (Hassan, 2010). Furthermore,
given that the extreme climate events (droughts), will
increase in the future, they will pose significant risks
and threats to pastoral activity in these arid areas,
such as the declining of pastures and water resources,
increased competition over available natural resources
and even sometimes brutal conflicts between pastoral
communities (Berhanu and Beyene, 2015).
In addition, the decrease in precipitation and recurrent
droughts combined with negative anthropogenic actions
(overgrazing, rangelands cultivation) have led to the
degradation of natural resources and desertification in
the study area (Maâtougui et al., 2011). The consequence
is a substantial decline of the current agropastoral
potentialities on which relays the existence of the majority
of the local population (Bechchari et al., 2014). Moreover,
increasing the frequency and severity of projected
droughts could increase social inequality in semi-arid
rural areas in Morocco (Schilling et al., 2012). For instance,
during these extreme events, the poorer livestock breeders
are likely to face more intense pressure on less available
pastoral resources, and to their inability to purchase feeds
for their livestock. While the better-off herders are likely to
be less affected owing to their relatively low dependence
on natural resources for generating their incomes (Kuhn
et al., 2010).
Thus, this state of imbalance attributed to ongoing
and expected effects of climate change, does not allow
for better planning of development and interventions
against poverty in the future (Badraoui and Balaghi,
2012) and even threatens the sustainability of these
actions. This is why one of the main challenges ahead
for Morocco is to increase its capacity to adapt and the
resilience of its arid land ecosystems in particular, in order
to face the negative effects of this climate phenomenon
and effectively reduce its vulnerability (Schilling et al.,
2012). In the absence of adaptation measures, farmers
and more generally dryland communities would be more
vulnerable and agro-ecosystem production would be
adversely affected (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008; Rao
et al., 2011). Moreover, the importance of CC adaptation
becomes crucial due to the high vulnerability of such
fragile communities and ecosystems resulting from a
low initial adaptive capacity (Hassan and Nhemachena,
2008). Knowing that many previous empirical studies
(Benhin, 2006; Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn,
2006; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2006) cited by Mano and
Nhemachena (2007), have shown that several impacts on
agriculture in Africa linked to CC could be significantly
reduced if appropriate and effective adaptation measures
are put in place.
In addition, the decision of farmers and rural
households whether or not to adapt to CC is mainly
driven by their perceptions of change in usual climatic
conditions (Deressa et al., 2009). In fact, the CC perception
is considered the first and most significant step before
adaptation (Gbetibouo, 2009) or for the development of
relevant adaptive strategies (Speranza, 2010), and more
importantly, it is a prerequisite for adaptation, according
to Thomas et al. (2007) and Silvestri et al., (2012).
Consequently, better understanding of the perceptions
of communities in arid lands related to climate change
is critical in order to address the CC adaptation issue in
these harsh environments (Fraser et al., 2011; Silvestri et
al., 2012; Opiyo et al., 2015). Actually, the importance of
studying farmers’ perceptions on CC stems mainly from
three reasons:
(i) To fill knowledge gaps between farmers and policy
makers (Tologbonse et al., 2010);
(ii) These perceptions represent a significant factor
influencing the success of the adaptation measures to
be implemented (Tesfahunegn et al., 2016);
(iii) Comprehensive and well-documented information
on farmers’ perceptions toward CC helps formulate
effective and sustainable adaptation responses

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 3
aimed at reducing the impacts and vulnerability to
this climate phenomenon (Opiyo et al., 2015; Van
Wesenbeeck et al., 2016).
Finally, farmers’ adaptations to CC depend on their
respective sites‐specific socio‐economic and biophysical
conditions (Below et al., 2012). Hence, the design of
relevant CC adaptation policies and strategies should take
into consideration these differences within the human
and natural contexts (Fussel, 2007) by means of agro-
ecology based research (Deressa et al., 2009) and local or
farm-level perspective (Below et al., 2012).
Given all of the above, this research intends to
explore the perceptions and adaptations of breeders
in the study area in the face of climate change, while
taking into account the existing socio-territorial
differentiation (agroecological sub-zones and breeders’
categories). Thus, a thorough examination of endogenous
adaptation practices is essential to develop appropriate
CC adaptation policies and strategies aimed to enhance
the resilience and adaptability of local communities. The
specific objectives of this study are: i) To identify livestock
breeders’ perceptions toward CC and examine whether
they correspond to historical climate data recorded, and
ii) To analyze herders’ endogenous practices in adapting
to climate variability and changes. The hypothesis
underlying our research assumes that the adaptation
of livestock producers to CC is influenced by their
respective sites-specific biophysical and socio-economic
conditions. Thus, this adaptation differs according to the
agroecological sites and the categories of breeders.
2 Materials and Methods
2.1 Study Area
This study was conducted in the high plateaus of eastern
Morocco (HPEM), which are located in the 30S UTM
zone (Figure 1). They represent one of the most extensive
pastoral areas in Morocco since they cover an area of 35,000
km², representing 10% of the total land of the country’s
rangelands. Pastoralism, based principally on sheep
breeding, is the main economic activity and livelihood for
local population. The HPEM area has experienced proven
trends of climate change over the past decades such as
decreased precipitation and recurrent episodes of drought
(Mahyou et al., 2010; Maâtougui et al., 2011; Melhaoui
et al., 2018). Hence, the HPEM represent a suitable and
representative area to explore and comprehend the
breeders’ perceptions and adaptations to CC in Morocco’s
pastoral ecosystems.
A comparative case-study approach was applied to
determine whether the perception and especially the
adaptation of the breeders in this vast area depend on
site‐specific socio‐economic and biophysical contexts,
by selecting three distinct agroecological sub-zones in
the study area. The selected sites are: south zone (rural
communes of Bni Guil and Abbou Lakhal), intermediate
zone (rural communes of Tendrara and Maâtarka) and
north zone (rural commune of Bni Mathar). This site
identification and selection was based on a set of criteria:
(i) nature of the climate (decreasing bioclimate gradient
ranging from arid in the north to hyperarid or pre-
Saharan in the south);
(ii) extent of rangelands (the rangelands are more
extensive in the intermediate and southern zones
compared to the northern part);
(iii) water potential (water resources are more abundant
in the north zone);
(iv) altitude (an increasing altitude gradient from north to
south); and
(v) type of dominant livestock breeding system (more
extensive in the intermediate and southern zones
than to the north) (Table 1).
Figure 1: Location map of the study area.

4 Wadii Snaibi
As for the southern zone, in addition to the extensive
pastoral farming of small ruminants carried out by the
majority of households’ heads, some ones of them practice
the casual wage labor and localized agriculture (cereal
crops). The intermediate zone is basically specialized in
the semi-extensive or even extensive farming of small
ruminants benefiting from its vast pastoral areas. While
in the northern part, a diversified production system
combining semi-intensive breeding of sheep and bovine
cattle, fodder and cereal crops, is observed (UNICEF
Morocco-DGCL-ADO, 2010). The northern site has the
singularity to have an important groundwater, which
allows the development of an irrigated agriculture on
an area of 2,500 ha. The soils of the study area are little
evolved, from silty to sandy-silty texture, resting on a
calcareous crust and their organic matter content is very
low.
2.2 Data collection and sampling
2.2.1 Data collection
Method of data collection used a combination of literature
review, key informant interviews, focus group discussions
and a survey of pastoralist households’ heads (Figure 2).
Relevant literature available from the extension services
and agricultural development agencies were consulted to
Table 1: Socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of the study area.
Zone North Intermediate South
Population (number of inhabitants) , , ,
Density of population (inhabitants / Km) High Low Low
Households (number) , , ,
Area, (Km) , , ,
Arable land, (ha) , , ,
Irrigated area, (ha / household) . . .
Maximum altitude, (m) , , ,
Climate, Semi-arid to arid Arid Arid to hyperarid
Precipitation, (mm)   
Average annual temperature, (°C) .  
Groundwater, Important Reduced Reduced
Soil productive potential, Low Low Low
Level of rangelands degradationModerate Moderate to severe Severe to very severe
Extent of rangelands , Reduced Great Average
Type of breeding system, Semi-intensive Semi-extensive to extensive Semi-extensive to extensive
Sheep numbers (heads/household)   
Goat numbers (heads/household)   
Bovine numbers (heads/household)   
Importance of local livestock market, High Average Low
Poverty (%) . . .
Vulnerability (%) . . .
Sources: 1High Commission for Planning HCP (2018). General census of population and housing 2014; 2Province of Figuig-ADS (2010).
Participatory territorial diagnosis of the rural communes of Abbou Lakhal, Bni Guil, Tendrara and Maâtarka; 3UNICEF Morocco-DGCL-ADO
(2010). Communal Plan of Development 2010-2015 of the rural commune of Bni Mathar; 4Mahyou et al. (2016); 5Regional Directorate
of Agriculture of the Oriental DRAO (2017). Livestock statistics in the Oriental Region; 6HCP (2010). Communal indicators of poverty,
vulnerability and inequality.

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 5
acquire mainly the information on the local climate trends,
livestock practices and endogenous adaptation measures
practiced by the breeders to combat the negative effects of
CC in the study area (Annex A).
Prior to the household survey, 11 interviews with key
informants, such as representatives of extension services,
agricultural agencies and pastoral cooperatives (Annexes B
and C), were conducted in July 2015. These interviews aimed
to get a global and clear overview about the CC issue in the
HPEM, mainly withregardtotheidentificationof major
climate change patterns in the last five decades and the
local adaptation practices in response to these observed
changes. During this phase of field data collection,
rainfall and temperature data were gathered from local
agricultural development agencies.
The data collected cover the annual rainfall volumes
of the three meteorological stations of Bni Mathar (1931-
2016), Tendrara (1931-2016) and Bouaârfa (1981-2016) and
the temperature data of Bni Mathar station (1970-2016).
The long time series of temperature concerning other
remaining stations are unavailable. After that, three focus
group discussions (FGDs), one per agroecological sub-
zone, were organized with the aim to obtain the qualitative
data related to the main climate hazards that have occurred
in the study area over the last five decades, the changes
in rainfall and temperature patterns and the endogenous
adaptation practices. The FGDs consisted of groups made
up of 12 to 15 participants, including heads of pastoral
households with different wealth status (small, medium
and large breeders), extension staffs and agricultural
agencies representatives. The final stage of fieldwork
involved the survey of pastoral households using a closed
questionnaire, which covers household’s demographic
and socio-economic characteristics, perceptions of CC
(frequent risks and hazards linked to climate, changes
in rainfall and temperature patterns) and the adaptation
strategies practiced in response to perceived climate
changes (Annex D). The household survey was conducted
from September to December in 2015.
2.2.2 Sampling design
To select the livestock producers surveyed in the study
area, a multi-step sampling procedure was used by
involving purposive and random sampling methods. At
the first stage of selection, as mentioned above, three
agroecological sub-zones were identified and selected. At
the second stage, given the similarity in the agroecological
characteristics with other rural communes belonging to
the north agroecological sub-zone, the commune of Bni
Mathar has been conserved to represent the rest of the
Figure 2: Analytical framework.

6 Wadii Snaibi
neighbouring localities. Thus, five rural communes were
purposively selected, these are Bni Guil, Abbou Lakhal
(south zone), Tendrara, Maâtarka (intermediate zone)
and Bni Mathar (north zone). They cover about 88% of
the total area of the HPEM. The third stage involved the
random selection of 167 households proportionate to the
breeders’ population size of the selected rural communes
(Table 2). The sample was drawn up as follows: 55 herders
in the southern zone, 82 in the intermediate area and
30 breeders in the northern zone. Given that the sheep
breeding constitutes the main source of income in the
study area and that the ovine species dominates the
structure of existing small ruminant herds (83%), the size
of the sheep flock in ownership was chosen as the criterion
of discrimination between breeders, and this in agreement
with the representatives of the local agricultural extension
agencies. Therefore, three categories of livestock breeders
were identified. The large breeders are those with a sheep
flock exceeding 300 heads, medium livestock keepers
own sheep flocks of between 101 and 300 heads, and
finally the small-scale breeders with the number of sheep
owned less than or equal to 100 heads. At the final stage,
respondent livestock breeders were randomly selected
from the established lists of surveyed rural commune
households stratified based on differences in wealth
status (the size of the sheep flock). The distribution of the
surveyed herders by category identified 96 small livestock
producers (14 in north, 50 in the intermediate zone and
32 in the southern part), 47 medium breeders (12 in the
north zone, 19 in the intermediate zone and 16 in south),
and 24 large herders (4 in north, 13 in intermediate zone
and 7 in the southern part). This distribution was based on
respecting the representativeness of the three categories
of breeders within the five selected rural communes.
2.3 Data analysis methods
The collected data on the livestock breeders’ perceptions
to CC, were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-
square independence test. The latter aims to highlight the
possible relationship between the perception of changes
in climate parameters and the agroecological sub-zone.
While the data gathered regarding to the practiced
adaptation measures were analyzed by the means of
Kruskal-Wallis’s test and Chi-square independence test.
Kruskal-Wallis test is an appropriate nonparametric test
for comparing more than two independent samples. It is
a rank-based test that can be used to test whether such
samples come from the same distribution (Ostertagova
et al., 2014). In our case, the Kruskal-Wallis test was
used to look for differences in the frequency of adoption
of adaptation strategies among three agroecological
sub-zones and between three livestock breeders’
categories. If the Kruskal-Wallis statistic is significant,
the nonparametric multiple comparison method is used
to find out which agroecological sub-zones or categories
of breeders are different from the others. In addition, a
Chi-square independence test was conducted to verify
whether this difference within the three agroecological
sub-zones is linked to socio-economic conditions at the
community level. Finally, quantitative data gathered from
household survey were processed using the software
called Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).
Meteorological data were studied to highlight any
change in the patterns of precipitations and temperature.
The methods used aimed to either study the variability
and trends within the climate chronicles through the use
of Mann-Kendall’s test or to detect breaks within these
series by the use of two appropriate homogeneity tests,
namely Pettitt’s test (Pettitt, 1979) and Buishand’s test
(Buishand, 1982, 1984). Mann-Kendall’s test was carried
out to indicate whether there are trends in the studied
climate series and the degree of their significance when
they exist. This test is often used because of its property
that no assumptions are needed on the data to be tested
(Sulaiman et al., 2015). The statistical methods for
detecting breaks within time series are intended to show
a change in the average behavior of the studied climate
parameter. As regards to Pettitt’s and Buishand’s tests,
Table 2: Distribution of breeders surveyed by agroecological sub-zone.
Agroecological sub-zones No. of rural communes No. of rural communes selected Total number of households Sample size
Southern zone   , 
Intermediate zone   , 
Northern zone   , 
Total   , 
Source: Field study (2015)

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 7
this involves dividing the main series of N elements into
two sub-series at each time t between 1 and N-1. The
main series shows a break at time t if the two subseries
have different distributions (Kingumbi et al., 2000). The
null hypothesis of these tests is the absence of rupture.
Climate data were analyzed using XLSTAT and Khronostat
software.
3 Results
3.1 Livestock breeders’ perceptions about
climate change
The majority of the surveyed herders perceived many
changes in their current climate compared to that of the
past five decades, particularly as regards variations in
the patterns of rainfall and of temperature (Figure 3). The
results indicate that all breeders observed a substantial
decline in the rainfall amounts, mostly since the 1970s. In
addition, the majority of herders noticed some irregularity
and shortening of the rainy season (late onset of the
rains, sometimes their early cessation than expected,
appearance of drought pockets). As a result, a disorder
in the usual calendar of agricultural practices and a
disrupting of growing season for pastoral plants and cereal
crops. These changes are mostly observed by the breeders
of the north and south zones (existence of relatively large
cropping areas). The occurrence of heavy rains that can
cause serious damage, especially to livestock, houses
(tents) and road infrastructures, is primarily noted by
the livestock producers of the intermediate zone (93%)
and those of the southern part (58%). In fact, the rains
in these two localities are sometimes of torrential nature
over the very rainy years. Therefore, the results of the chi-
square independence test show that there is a significant
difference in terms of perceived heavy rains between the
agroecological sub-zones studied (χ2 = 69.896, p < .001).
Furthermore, nearly 90% of breeders perceived
changes in temperature pattern that occurred in their
area over the last five decades. Indeed, the majority of
the respondents (82%) observed a significant rise in
temperature, principally in the intermediate zone (79%)
and the south area (91%). This increase in temperature is
more perceived in these localities (χ2 = 12.625, p = .013).
In addition to these major climate changes observed
by the interviewed breeders, other climate hazards were
mentioned, notably the increase in strong winds and
sandstorms. The increased high winds are noticed mainly
in the south (100%) and the intermediate (76%) zones.
The perceived strong winds differed significantly within
the three agroecological sub-zones studied (χ2 = 22.894,
p < .001). Similarly, there was a significant difference in
terms of perception of increasing sandstorms between
the three agroecological sub-zones (χ2 = 15.774, p < .001).
Figure 3: Perception of changes in climate factors for the past five decades in the HPEM’s area (in %). HPEM: High plateaus of eastern
Morocco, NZ: North zone, IZ: Intermediate zone, SZ: South zone.

8 Wadii Snaibi
Indeed, the rise in sandstorms is more perceived in the
south (100%) and the north (90%) sites.
Overall, except the unanimity on the widespread
decline of precipitation throughout the study area,
breeders’ perception toward CC varies significantly
through the studied agroecological sub-zones. Thus, the
results suggest that the intermediate and the south zones
are the most vulnerable to climate change compared to
the northern area characterized by slightly more favorable
climate conditions.
3.2 Analysis of historical climate data
3.2.1 Long-term changes in precipitation in the study
area
3.2.1.1 Interannual variability and rainfall trends
The precipitation data collected at the three meteorological
stations of Bni Mathar, Tendrara (1931-2016) and Bouaârfa
(1981-2016) show a spatio-temporal irregularity of annual
rainfall heights. Indeed, the great inter-annual variability
is more pronounced in the intermediate and southern
zones, as evidenced by the high values of the coefficients
of variation. The latter are respectively of 47 and 44%
(Table 3).
The recorded data on rainfall reveal a slight downward
trend of the annual rainfall in the studied chronic series
with a more marked regression of precipitation in the
northern region of the study area (Bni Mathar). This one
shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. In
addition, the correlation between precipitation and time
is significant only in Bni Mathar station since its rainfall
amounts vary considerably over the years.
This decline in rainfall is probably due to global
climate change that has been observed in recent decades.
Furthermore, since average rainfall values in Tendrara
(intermediate zone) and Bouaârfa (southern zone) are
higher than those of the median rainfall values, respectively
of 177 and 132 mm, it can be argued that the average rainfall
in these two sites is somewhat influenced by the wet
extreme years. Contrariwise, for the Bni Mathar station, its
average rainfall is slightly influenced by the dry extreme
years because the value of its median rainfall is 218 mm.
In order to determine if there is a significant trend
in rainfall series, a Mann- Kendall test was run. The
rainfall series of Bni Mathar station, exhibits a decreasing
tendency, which is statistically significant (Kendall’s Tau
statistic τb = -.182, p = .014), unlike precipitation series
of the meteorological stations of Tendrara (τb = -.076, p
= .307) and Bouaârfa (τb = -.015, p = .910), which do not
show significant trend.
Table 3: Analysis of precipitation data in the study area.
Rainfall Bni Mathar Tendrara Bouaârfa
Total years   
Mean (mm) . . .
Standard deviation (mm) . . .
Minimum rainfall (mm) . . .
Maximum rainfall (mm) . . .
Median (mm)  . .
Amplitude of variation (mm) . . .
Coefficient of variation (%) . . .
Trend (mm/year) -.* -. -.
Correlation -.* (.) -. (.) -. (.)
Total change calculated from the trend (mm/total years) -. -. -.
Rate of change (%) -. - -.
1: Amplitude of variation or the extent is the difference between the largest and lowest value of rainfall data.
2: Correlation between time and rainfall series. Pearson correlation (significance).
3: The rate of change is the difference between the trend line value of the final year and the initial year (VF-VI) relative to the initial year’
value.
*: Significant (P < .05).

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 9
3.2.1.2 Rainfall homogeneity
In order to confirm these identified trends and to investigate
possible rainfall breaks in the three series studied, two
homogeneity tests were used. The results obtained by
Pettitt’s test (K = 752.000, p = .010) and Buishand’s test (Q
= 15.363, p = .004) show that the calculated p-values are
lower than the level of significance alpha (= .05). Thus, the
null hypothesis (H0) of homogeneity of the rainfall series
of the Bni Mathar station should be rejected. There is a
point or time t from which there is a significant change in
the mean of annual rainfall, this point is in 1976.
Figure 4 clearly shows this rupture of stationarity in
this studied rainfall series. Contrariwise, according to the
results of Pettitt’s test (K = 368.000, p = .815; K = 90.000,
p = .979) and Buishand’s test (Q = 6.342, p = .629; Q =
4.086, p = .601), respectively, for the stations of Tendrara
and Bouaârfa, the calculated p-values are greater than the
threshold significance level alpha (= .05). Thus, H0 cannot
be rejected and therefore the precipitation data at these
two stations are homogeneous (no shift between two parts
of each time series).
Overall, a general regression trend of the annual
rainfall amounts is observed between the two recording
periods 1931-1976 and 1977-2016. Indeed, the average
annual rainfall of the Bni Mathar station decreased from
239 mm to 186 mm, which is a diminution of more than
22%. This decline in annual rainfall over the considered
periods is less marked at the Tendrara station, i.e. a
decrease of 3.2%.
3.2.2 Long-term changes in temperature in the study
area
3.2.2.1 Interannual variability and temperature trends
The slopes of the three trend lines (Tmean, Tmin and Tmax)
have a positive value, which indicate an increase in annual
temperature over the period 1970 to 2016 at the station
of Bni Mathar (Figure 5). Since the factors for modifying
the minimum and maximum annual temperature are
respectively of .096 and .012, it can be argued that the
fluctuation of the minimum temperature was much greater
than that of the maximum temperature. To determine if
there is a trend in temperature series, a Mann-Kendall test
was carried out. For the mean temperature (Kendall’s Tau
statistic τb = .553, p < .0001) and minimum temperature
(τb = .647, p < .0001), the p values indicate that we reject
the null hypothesis (no trend) and therefore there is
an upward trend in these series, which is statistically
significant, unlike the maximum temperature series (τb =
.059, p = .557).
3.2.2.2 Homogeneity of temperatures
The series of annual minimum temperatures shows a
significant change in the mean observed according to
Pettitt’s test (K = 502.000, p < .0001) and Buishand’s test (Q
= 19.608, p < .0001) since the calculated p-values of these
two tests are lower than the level of significance alpha
(= .05). The rupture date is around 1988. Thus, between
Figure 4: Graph of the homogeneity of annual precipitation at the Bni Mathar station (according to the Pettitt’s test).

10 Wadii Snaibi
the periods 1970-1988 and 1989-2016, the minimum
temperature is increased from 6.95 to 9.65 °C, that a rise of
about 39% (Figure 6). Similarly, for the mean temperature,
the Pettitt’s test (K = 424.000, p < .0001) and Buishand’s
test (Q = 15.047, p < .0001) suggest that the null hypothesis
H0 of homogeneity of the temperature data of this series
must be rejected.
Therefore, mean annual temperature of Bni Mathar
station, before and after the 2000 rupture date, is
significantly different. Indeed, between the periods 1970-
2000 and 2001-2016, the average temperature is increased
from 15.12 to 16.49 °C, thus registering a rise of about 9%.
However, there is no significant change in the mean of the
series of maximum annual temperatures, according to the
Pettitt’s test (K = 212.000, p = .203) and Buishand’s test (Q
= 6.705, p = .211).
Figure 5: Change in mean, minimum and maximum annual temperature at the Bni Mathar station.
Figure 6: Graph of homogeneity of annual minimum temperatures at the Bni Mathar station (according to the Pettitt’s test).

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 11
3.3 Analysis of the endogenous adaptation
strategies to climate variability and change
Based on the FGDs conducted, key informant interviews
and literature review, 25 adaptation measures to climate
variability and change have been identified and are
currently being practiced by livestock breeders in the
study area. These local adaptation practices can be
grouped into three main categories: (i) Adjustment of farm
management and pastoral practices; (ii) Diversification of
income sources and (iii) Other adaptations. A large part of
these adaptation strategies concerns the first dimension.
A general divergence between the agroecological sub-
zones on all identified practices, was observed (Table 4).
In fact, the frequencies of adoption of these adaptation
measures differ according to the agroecological sub-zones.
The Kruskal-Wallis test showed that there is a statistically
significant difference in the frequency of the adoption of
adaptation strategies between the studied agroecological
sub-zones (χ2 = 14.525, p = .001), with a mean rank of 28.94
for the northern zone, 51.26 for the intermediate zone and
33.80 for the southern area.
This lack of similarity in the frequency distributions
of adaptation strategies within the three agroecological
sub-zones is due to the presence of a significant difference
between the northern and the intermediate zone (χ2 =
12.839, p < .001) and between the southern area and the
intermediate zone (χ2 = 8.145, p = .004).
Concerning the first category of adaptation measures,
it is noted that the northern area benefits from some
specific natural (climate conditions relatively favorable
compared to other sites, presence of a large groundwater)
and physical assets (existence of an important local
livestock’ market, geographical proximity of the capital
of the Eastern Region of the country). These elements
have enabled local development of irrigated agriculture
on a perimeter of 2,500 ha, which often acts as a buffer,
especially during drought events. As a result, fodder crops
(barley, oats, alfalfa) have become increasingly practiced
by local breeders. Thus, the availability of on-site forage
resources has encouraged many herders to diversify
their livestock by introducing bovine cattle (with as a
corollary the intensification of prophylactic care), to store
animal feed and, above all, to achieve greater integration
between livestock and agriculture. The breeding system
at this site is market-oriented, as this region is a center
of intermediation between the production areas and the
regional animal market in Taourirt. This explains the
relative high frequencies of animal commercialization
practices. At the intermediate zone and because of the
aridity of the climate and the recurrence of the drought
episodes, the breeders of this locality opted for the
diversification of their flock through the rearing of
goats and this for their characteristics of hardiness and
polyfunctionality. On the other hand, given the immensity
of its pastoral lands of approximately 17,360 km2 and
the large numbers of small ruminants owned which
are around 450 thousand heads, the systematic use of
the motorization and the mobility of herds is more than
justified (Bourbouze, 2000). The frequent and regular
practice of veterinary care is emerged thanks to the
“Livestock and Rangelands Development Project in the
Eastern Region of Morocco” and the public programs
against unpredictable climate events, which include the
improvement of flocks’ health particularly by regular
vaccination campaigns. In addition, Tendrara’s local
livestock market is coveted by several animal speculators
who seek either to supply the local demand in red meats or
to make more profits by supplying large but distant urban
agglomerations. Moreover, the supervision of breeders in
this locality, by local institutions (National Association of
Sheep and Goat Breeders-ANOC, agricultural development
agencies) and international cooperation actors (IFAD,
USAID), has allowed the improvement of their technical
and commercial skills and performances (sheep fattening
practice, consolidation of quality butcher, contracts of
sale of animal products with several supermarkets).
With regard to the second dimension of adaptation
measures, the practices related to the diversification of the
livelihoods and research of additional sources of income,
are more frequently applied by the livestock producers
in the South area. In fact, as a complement to livestock
breeding, these herders have been forced to engage in
other activities, namely temporary wage labor, services
and small activities generating additional income such
as collection of truffles. In addition, natural (increased
drought or dry years) and economic (fluctuating prices
of livestock and livestock feed) insecurity conditions
have prompted several breeders in this area to convert
their animal capital into real estate capital. Finally, with
respect to the third dimension, only the intermediate zone
still shows signs of mutual aid and community solidarity.
Similarly, even for the agroecological sub-zones,
adaptation practices of the first dimension “Adjustment
of farm management and pastoral practices” are most
frequently practiced by the breeders in the study
area (Table 5). In addition, the analysis of the relative
frequencies of adaptation measures indicates a general
divergence between categories of breeders. The Kruskal-
Wallis test showed a statistically significant difference in
the frequency of adopting adaptation strategies within
breeders’ categories (χ2 = 10.568, p = .005), with a mean

12 Wadii Snaibi
rank of 47.60 for small-scale breeders, 38.78 for medium
herders and 27.62 for large livestock keepers.
Moreover, the distribution of several adaptation
measures differs significantly between categories
of breeders. This lack of similarity in the frequency
distributions of adaptation strategies within breeders’
categories is due to the presence of a significant difference
between small and large-scale breeders (χ2 = 9.535, p
= .002) and between medium and large breeders (χ2 =
3.812, p = .05). This shows that breeders’ adaptations in
the study area depend mainly on their wealth status or
economic power, expressed by the size of the sheep herd
in possession.
Concerning the first dimension of adaptation
measures, the large livestock producers opt for
strategies of various purposes. Their strategies include
Table 4: Frequencies of adaptation measures in percentage according to the agroecological sub-zones.
Adaptation measures (%) North Intermediate South
Adjustment of farm management and pastoral practices
M . Mixed livestock crop farming system* . . .
M . Diversification of livestock species (sheep & goats)* . . .
M . Irrigated agriculture and livestock integration* .  
M . Regular practice of veterinary care* . . .
M . Practice of fattening*   .
M . Selection of animals and conduct of reproduction*  . .
M . Improved livestock technologies (vaginal sponge)* . . 
M . Herd mobility*   .
M . Profit of state agricultural programs* . . .
M . Mechanization and equipment* .  .
M . Storage of animal feed*  . .
M . Regular Sale of animals to stock up on feed* . . .
M . Sale of the animal in a good physical state*  . .
M . Use continuously of a favorable pasture site*  . .
M . Privative appropriation of rangelands  . .
M . Rangeland enclosure by cereal cultivation . . .
M . Climate multihazard insurance .  .
Diversification of income sources
M . Casual labor* . . .
M . Internal or external emigration in search of jobs . . .
M . Collection of truffles as additional income*   .
M . Livestock mixed with income generating activities . . .
M . Possession of an urban center based house*   .
M . Construction of concrete residence in rangelands*  . .
Other adaptations
M . Credit from speculators livestock feed* . . .
M . Seeking support from friends and the tribe*  . .
Note: * Significant difference between distributions within the three agroecological sub-zones (level of significance: .05).
Source: Author’s own elaboration.

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 13
the diversification of their productions (integration of
livestock breeding and cereal farming, rearing of mixed
flocks of sheep and goats), improving the quality of red
meat offered (practice of fattening as well as the selection
and reproduction of well sought races), mobility or
transhumance of short duration and low amplitude,
intensification of production factors (mechanization and
acquisition of means of transport, regular or frequent
veterinary care) and market orientation (final products
of good taste quality). In fact, all these adaptation
measures require the mobilization of substantial
financial resources, which explains the differences in
frequency distribution of these responses relatively less
important among the medium and small-scale breeders.
Thus, taking advantage of their wealth status and their
relational networks, the better-off breeders tend to
Table 5: Frequencies of adaptation measures in percentage according to the category of breeders.
Adaptation measures (%) Small Medium Large
Adjustment of farm management and pastoral practices
M . Mixed livestock crop farming system*  . 
M . Diversification of livestock species (sheep & goats) . . .
M . Irrigated agriculture and livestock integration . . .
M . Regular practice of veterinary care* . . .
M . Practice of fattening* . . .
M . Selection of animals and conduct of reproduction* . . .
M . Improved livestock technologies (vaginal sponge) . . .
M . Herd mobility* . . 
M . Profit of state agricultural programs   .
M . Mechanization and equipment*  . 
M . Storage of animal feed* . . .
M . Regular Sale of animals to stock up on feed . . .
M . Sale of the animal in a good physical state* . . 
M . Use continuously of a favorable pasture site . . 
M . Privative appropriation of rangelands* .  .
M . Rangeland enclosure by cereal cultivation . . .
M . Climate multihazard insurance* . . .
Diversification of income sources
M . Casual labor* . . .
M . Internal or external emigration in search of jobs . . .
M . Collection of truffles as additional income* . . 
M . Livestock mixed with income generating activities . . .
M . Possession of an urban center based house* . . 
M . Construction of concrete residence in rangelands* .  .
Other adaptations
M . Credit from speculators livestock feed* . . .
M . Seeking support from friends and the tribe . . .
Note: * Significant difference between distributions within the three categories of breeders (level of significance: .05).
Source: Author’s own elaboration.

14 Wadii Snaibi
obtain more and more rangelands for their private use
by capturing large expanses of collective pastures. This
is reflected in the significant differences between the
average available agricultural areas, which are 86, 37
and 15 hectares respectively for great, medium and small
livestock keepers. Recently, the subscription to the multi-
risk insurance climate has become a common practice,
particularly for large livestock producers and to a lesser
extent among the medium breeders. The adoption of this
adaptation measure by large and medium-sized breeders
has two objectives. Climate insurance contracts represent,
according to local breeders, justifications demonstrating
the legitimacy of the property ownership while they
are indeed acts of annexation of collective pastures. In
addition, this practice allows to this category of breeders,
but also to the medium herders, to obtain important
financial revenues via compensation of climate vagaries
(drought in particular) that can reach 600 MAD per ha.
As regards to the second dimension of adaptation
measures “Diversification of income sources”, the
small breeders are forced to engage in other small-scale
activities, such as temporary labor, collecting truffles and
small trades. These activities allow satisfying both the
needs of their families and those of their meager herds
especially during prolonged drought event. As for the
large livestock producers, to circumvent the conditions
of climate and economic insecurities linked to the
increasingly competitive livestock activity, they invest in
activities of speculation including the real estate.
4 Discussion
4.1 Coherence between herders’ perceptions
of CC and recorded climate data
To assess livestock breeders’ perception toward climate
variability and change, the study examined how this
local perception corresponds to climate data recorded
at meteorological stations in the HPEM area. Thus,
we compared climate changes perceived by livestock
producers with the evolution in meteorological stations’
recorded data (variability and trends). At first, we looked
at if our findings of climate analysis are consistent with
those of previous climate studies conducted in the HPEM.
Indeed, the results obtained from the statistical analysis of
climate data corroborate those of these studies, since the
latter have shown that rainfall is characterized by large
inter-annual variability with a decreasing trend, while
temperature has increased over the years (Mimouni and
Mahyou, 2006; Jorion, 2009; Mahyou et al., 2010; François
et al., 2016; Melhaoui et al., 2018). Jorion (2009), using
rainfall series (1936 - 2006) from the stations of Bni Mathar
and Tendrara, highlighted a declining precipitation trend,
especially during the spring season, towards the end of
the 1970s. Thus, the Bni Mathar station showed a break
in the rainfall series by 1976, recording a regression of
precipitation by 23%. He also noted an upward trend in
temperatures in particular the mean and the minimum
temperatures. Similarly, François et al. (2016) found that in
Eastern Morocco, since 1981, annual rainfall amounts have
decreased by 29%, while the temperature has increased.
Melhaoui et al. (2018), based on precipitation series from
1935 to 2015 regarding Bni Mathar and Tendrara stations,
pointed out a significant downward trend with a climate
rupture, located in 1976/1977, within the rainfall data of
the first meteorological station. While, even the Tendrara’
rainfall series shows a decrease in precipitation, there is
no statically significant trend in the studied data.
Given that all interviewed breeders perceived a
decrease in rainfall amounts, mainly since the 1970s, and
most of them (82%) noticed an increase in temperature over
the past five decades, so we can conclude that livestock
breeders’ perception is consistent across the entire study
area and that it is in agreement with the meteorological
stations data. In addition, these perceptions (decrease in
precipitation and increase in temperature) are in perfect
concordance with those reported by several authors in
different African countries: Benin (Vissoh et al., 2012),
Ghana (Ndamani and Watanabe, 2016), Burkina Faso
(Ouédraogo et al., 2010), South Africa (Gbetibouo, 2009),
Ethiopia (Tamiru et al., 2014) and Kenya (Opiyo et al.,
2015). Likewise, Berhanu and Beyene (2015) and Opiyo et
al. (2015) emphasize that the recorded trend of increased
temperature and decline in precipitation in the last
three decades is found to correspond with pastoralists’
perception of CC, respectively in southern Ethiopia and
northwestern Kenya. For their part, Gbetibouo (2009)
and Ouédraogo et al. (2010) highlight this concordance
between farmers’ perception and observed climate trends,
respectively in Limpopo basin of South Africa and Burkina
Faso.
Moreover, 81 and 87% of the respondents observed
a rise of strong winds and sandstorms, respectively,
and this notably in the intermediate and the southern
zones. Indeed, regarding these other climate-related
risks, Mahyou et al. (2016) and Melhaoui et al. (2018)
reported that hot dry winds, in the two aforementioned
localities, are recurrent and generate strong sandstorms,
particularly in the summer. Vissoh et al. (2012) and Yila
and Resurreccion (2013) highlighted that winds are

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 15
stronger, mainly during the dry season, respectively in
southeast Benin and Northeastern Nigeria.
4.2 Analysis of the endogenous adaptation
strategies to climate variability and change
The results showed that livestock producers in the
intermediate zone adopt, with higher frequencies, most of
the endogenous adaptation strategies in response to the
experienced climate variability and change, compared
to those of the other two agroecological sub-zones. This
difference could be attributed to several biophysical,
economic and socio-cultural factors. Melhaoui et al.
(2018) found that this locality has the highest coefficient
of variation of annual rainfall, i.e. 47% versus 34%
and 44% respectively for the northern and southern
sites. In addition, according to these same authors, the
frequency of dry years during the period between 1981
and 2015 is much higher (51%) in the intermediate zone
compared to the north and south zones, which record
frequencies about 36 and 33% respectively. Gutu et al.
(2012) pointed that the farmers of the zones where the
rainfall is low and the temperature is high, adopt easily
adaptation measures compared to those belonging to
areas receiving more precipitation and less temperature.
Similarly, Atinkut and Mebrat (2016) emphasized that the
households of the woina dega (Ethiopia) are more likely to
implement adaptation strategies because this site receive
less amounts of precipitation with high variability and
frequent drought. Deressa et al. (2009) highlighted that
decreasing precipitation significantly rises the probability
of adopting soil conservation, changing crop varieties,
changing planting dates and irrigating. Ouédraogo et
al. (2010) stated that the adoption of water and soil
conservation techniques and organic fertilization in the
Sahelian zone (rainfall between 300 and 600 mm) is more
important compared to the Sudanian zone (precipitation
between 900 and 1,200 mm). These same authors
added that adaptation strategies are more adopted in
vulnerable area to CC (Sahelian zone). Contrariwise,
Below et al. (2012) showed that the differences in the
frequencies of adaptation practices between two wards in
Tanzania (Mlali: sub‐humid climate with average annual
precipitation of 890 mm and Gairo: semi‐arid climate with
average annual precipitation of 499 mm) are significant.
Furthermore, the distribution of most adaptation practices
also differs significantly between the two wards, in favor
of Mlali site, which has high agroecological potential.
In addition, breeders in the intermediate zone have
specialized over time in the extensive rearing of small
ruminants, while those of the northern zone have taken
advantage of the availability of water to practice, in
addition to breeding, a localized irrigated farming. On
the other hand, due to the aridity of the climate and the
low agricultural potential of the southern zone, herders,
especially the poor among them, have been forced to
practice certain activities independent of livestock farming
such as casual labor, small trades and the collection of
truffles to obtain additional income necessary for their
survival. The chi-square independence test confirms
this observation since it has shown that there is a highly
significant relationship between the exercise of an
ancillary activity in addition to livestock farming and
belonging to an agroecological sub-zone (χ2 = 38.094, p <
.001). Indeed, more than half of the livestock producers in
the intermediate site (56%) do not carry out any ancillary
activity generating additional income, unlike 21% and
23% respectively for the southern and northern areas.
This local specialization of the production system also
stems from the extent of available rangelands and the
large numbers of small ruminants held by breeders in
the intermediate zone (Table 1). Thus, given the fact that
the occupation of the farmer is an indication of the total
amount of time available for farming activities (Gbetibouo,
2009), off-farm employment may constrain technology
adoption because it competes for on-farm managerial
time (McNamara et al., 1991).
Other socioeconomic factors turned out to be
statistically significant in explaining this difference in
terms of adoption frequency of CC adaptation practices
within agroecological sub-zones. The chi-square test
shows that breeders, belonging to the intermediate zone,
are better endowed with the necessary equipment for
extensive and transhumant breeding activities such as
trucks (χ2 = 38.094, p < .001), water tanks (χ2 = 38.094, p <
.001) and pastoral hydraulics infrastructure for watering
herds (χ2 = 82.644, p < .001) and employ more shepherds
to guard their flocks (χ2 = 6.779, p = .03). Moreover, they
are more present in the rangelands as evidenced by the
type of prevailing habitat in this locality, that is the tent
“Kheima” (χ2 = 108.855, p < .001). The herders belonging to
the intermediate zone benefit the most from the training
actions regarding livestock breeding, development and
management of rangelands and other technical topics
of interest (χ2 = 25.701, p < .001), adhere massively to a
technical supervisory structure, namely the National
Association of Sheep and Goat Breeders- ANOC (χ2 = 8.596,
p = .01) and are of high average ages (χ2 = 7.219, p = .02).
These last elements suggest that breeders belonging to the
intermediate zone have accumulated a great experience
in pastoral breeding compared to their counterparts in

16 Wadii Snaibi
the other sites. In line with thesefindings, Hassan and
Nhemachena (2008) and Ouédraogo et al. (2010) found
that ownership of heavy machinery or agricultural
equipment enhances significantly and positively the
ability of farmers to adapt in response to climate change.
Piya et al. (2013) and Tiwari et al. (2014) pointed out that
the received training affects positively and significantly the
probability that livestock producers will adopt adaptive
strategies to deal with CC impacts. Tiwari et al. (2014)
and Taruvinga et al. (2016) expressed that membership in
community-based organizations increases the adoption of
CC adaptation practices. Yila and Resurreccion (2013) and
Mabe et al. (2014) emphasized that farming experience
significantly and positively affects the implementation
of CC adaptation strategies, respectively in the semi-arid
Nguru Local Government Area, Northeastern Nigeria and
in Northern Ghana.
In addition, breeders in the intermediate zone have
been able to preserve socio-cultural values specific to
pastoral communities (social cohesion and solidarity,
habits of the nomadic way of life, receptivity, socio-
cultural value of livestock and breeding, pastoral pacts
with distant communities). These socio-cultural values
attracted various development projects of rangelands and
livestock rearing in the HPEM area. Berhanu and Beyene
(2015) have argued that traditional pastoralism represents
a resilient and unique system of adaptation to hostile and
unpredictable climate variability in dryland ecosystems.
Lastly, the significant difference in the adoption
frequencies of CC adaptation practices between the three
studied agroecological sub-zones suggests that living in
different agroecological regions, influences the adoption
and the implementation of CC adaptation measures.
Because these measures mainly vary according to local
biophysical and socio-economic conditions (Deressa
et al., 2009; Ouédraogo et al., 2010; Below et al., 2012;
Piya et al., 2013; Tiwari et al., 2014; Atinkut and Mebrat,
2016). Therefore, the adaptation in response to climate
change seems to be site-specific. This finding is supported
by many previous literatures attributing the difference
in the adaptation measures to CC between different
agroecological zones to climate factors (Ouédraogo et
al., 2010; Below et al., 2012; Atinkut and Mebrat, 2016),
soils and other natural resources (Atinkut and Mebrat,
2016), as well as to socioeconomic characteristics of local
communities (Tiwari et al., 2014).
Furthermore, the study showed a significant
difference in the adoption frequencies of CC adaptation
practices between different wealth groups of breeders,
which are based on the size of sheep flock in ownership.
Thus, better-off herders are much more committed to
implementing CC adaptation strategies in comparison
with small-scale livestock keepers. Indeed, given that the
sheep farming is by far the main economic activity of the
households in the study area, the sheep herd size provides
information on the level of breeder’ wealth and then could
influence his decision to embrace adaptation strategies to
climate variability and change. In line with this finding,
Berhanu and Beyene (2015) and Opiyo et al. (2015) have
found that herd size had a positive and significant effect on
the likelihood that pastoralists adapt to CC. In addition, it
is widely recognized that the implementation of adaptive
strategies requires the provision of substantial financial
resources such as a great livestock flock (Opiyo et al.,
2015). In fact, holding of large livestock herds represents
a sign of pastoralists’ wealth (Watson and Binsbergen,
2008; Deressa et al., 2009) and provides economic and
socio-cultural values required for adaptation (Opiyo et al.,
2015).
4.3 Methodological discussion
In order to compare farmers’ perceptions with
meteorological stations’ recorded data, several studies
have performed the same type of analysis using linear
trend tests of annual means of rainfall and temperatures.
For instance, Gbetibouo (2009) compared the precipitation
and temperature data trend in the Limpopo river basin of
South Africa with the responses given by 794 farmers if
they had noticed changes in temperature and rainfall over
the past 20 years. Berhanu and Beyene (2015) examined
the pastoralists’ perception toward CC compared to actual
recorded trends of increased temperature and decline
in precipitation in a climate series from 1964 to 2012. In
addition to the analysis of climate trends, we used the
homogeneity tests of climate series to detect possible
ruptures. Indeed, these tests are very useful to know
exactly when the changes in climate parameters occurred
(break dates) and if they are statistically significant. These
statistical methods have been used by some authors as El
Ibrahimi et al. (2015), Lubès-Niel et al. (1998) and Paturel
et al. (1996, 1998).
To examine whether the adoption of CC adaptation
practices significantly differs according to three
different agroecological sub-zones in the study area
and between three breeders’ categories, we carried out
the Kruskal-Wallis test. This test was useful because we
had one nominal independent variable, each with three
modalities (agroecological sub-zone or breeder category)
and one dependent variable (frequency of adoption).
Similarly, Gbetibouo (2009) assessed if the perceptions

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 17
toward climate change differed significantly, according
experience level (three classes) and education level (four
classes) by using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Below et al.
(2012) pointed out a significative difference in the adoption
frequencies of adaptation strategies between two distinct
agroecological sites, namely Mlali and Gairo in Tanzania
by using Mann-Whitney test. Note that the difference
between Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests is simply
due to the fact that this last can compare more than two
independent groups. Other authors have used regression
models to highlight the effect of the agroecological zone
on the adoption of CC adaptation measures in Burkina
Faso (Ouédraogo et al., 2010) or the influence of this factor
on the farmers choice of adaptation strategies in Dera
woreda, Ethiopia (Atinkut and Mebrat, 2016).
5 Conclusions
In the study area, livestock producers are faced with
frequent extreme climate events such as recurrent
droughts (perception rate: 98%), strong winds (81%) and
sandstorms (87%). Precipitation is characterized by high
spatial and temporal variability with a downward trend
since the late 1970s. This drop in rainfall is very marked in
the northern zone (1976 as the date of rupture) and slightly
visible in the other sites. Analysis of the temperature
series from 1970 to 2016, for the Bni Mather station located
in the northern part of the HPEM, showed a significant
increase in the annual temperature, more precisely the
minimum temperature, which increased by 39 % (date of
rupture in 1988). Overall, livestock producers’ perceptions
toward climate change are consistent with meteorological
recorded data and actual climate trends. This suggests that
breeders’ perceptions regarding long-term climate change
should be incorporated into future climate research in the
study area.
The significant differences observed in the frequency
of adoption of CC adaptation strategies in the HPEM area
can be mainly attributed to the contrasting biophysical
and socioeconomic conditions within the three studied
agroecological sub-zones and the level of herder’ wealth
(expressed in terms of the size of the owned sheep herd).
In addition, the distribution of most adaptation practices
differs significantly according agroecological sub-zones
and breeders’ categories.
The findings underscore the imperative need to tailor
climate change adaptation interventions to agroecological
zones and the livestock keepers’ status of wealth. Since
small breeders are the most vulnerable group, programs
and public incentives should target them as a priority.
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20 Wadii Snaibi
Annex A: List of relevant literature review related to climate change and
climate risks in the study area
– BECHCHARI, A., EL AICH, A., MAHYOU, H., BAGHDAD, B., BENDAOU, M. : Etude de la dégradation des pâturages
steppiques dans les communes de Maâtarka et Béni Mathar (Maroc oriental). J. Mater. Environ. Sci., 5 (S2) : 2572-
2583, 2014.
– BECHCHARI, A., EL AICH, A., MAHYOU, H., BAGHDAD, B., BENDAOU, M. : Analyse de l’évolution du système
pastoral du Maroc oriental. Revue d’élevage et de médecine vétérinaire des pays tropicaux 67 (4),151-162, 2014.
– BOURBOUZE, A.: Pastoralisme au Maghreb : la révolution silencieuse. Fourrages, 161: 3-21, 2000.
– BOURBOUZE, A., EL AICH, A. : Gestion des parcours et des troupeaux en régions steppiques et réponse à l’aléa
climatique, in : Livestock Production and Climate Uncertainty in the Mediterranean, Guessous, F., Rihani, N.,
Ilham, A. (Eds.), EAAP Publication no. 94. Wageningen Pers, Wageningen, pp. 307-319, 2000.
– FRANÇOIS, A., GAUCHÉ, E., GÉNIN, A. : L’adaptation des territoires aux changements climatiques dans l’Oriental
marocain : la vulnérabilité entre action et perceptions. Vertigo 16 (1), 2016, http://journals.openedition.org/
vertigo/17177: DOI: 10.4000/vertigo.17177.
– INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT (IFAD-Morocco). Livestock and Rangelands
Development Project in the Eastern Region of Morocco - Phase II, Report “Upgrading of a monitoring and evaluation
system and updating of a baseline situation of the Project”, Morocco, 2008, 61p.
– INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT (IFAD-Morocco). Livestock and Rangelands
Development Project in the Eastern Region of Morocco - Phase II, Report “Master Plan for the development of
rangelands and livestock in the high plateaus of Eastern Morocco”, Morocco, 2010, 81p.
– INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT (IFAD-Morocco). Livestock and Rangelands
Development Project in the Eastern Region of Morocco - Phase II, Project completion Report, Morocco, 2012, 54p.
– JORION, N.: Changements climatiques dans l’oriental marocain et modification de la zone agroclimatique de stipa
tenacissima. Mémoire Master en sciences géographiques option climatologie. Faculté des sciences géographiques.
Université de Liège, Belgique, 2009.
– LAZAREV, G.: L’élevage pastoral dans les hauts plateaux de l’oriental du Maroc, Les notes d’analyse du CIHEAM
N°37, 2008, https://www.academia.edu/25722081/L%C3%A9levage_pastoral_dans_les_Hauts_Plateaux_de_
lOriantal_Marocain_ann%C3%A9es_1990
– MAÂTOUGUI, A., ACHERKOUK, M., EL FADILI, M., ELHOUMAIZI, M.A. : Les pâturages steppiques de l’Oriental
marocain. L’essentiel sur l’état de dégradation et les voies d’amélioration. Division de l’information et de la
communication, INRA-Edition, Rabat, Maroc, pp. 1-57, 2011.
– MAHYOU, H., TYCHON, B., BALAGHI, R., MIMOUNI, J., PAUL, R.: Désertification des parcours arides au Maroc.
Tropicultura 28(2), 107-114, 2010.
– MAHYOU, H., TYCHON, B., BALAGHI, R., LOUHAICHI, M., MIMOUNI, J., 2016. A knowledge-based approach for
mapping land degradation in the arid rangelands of North Africa. Land Degrad. Develop., 27: 1574-1585, 2016.
– MELHAOUI, M., MEZRHAB, A., MIMOUNI, J. : Evaluation et cartographie de la sécheresse météorologique dans les
hauts plateaux de l’Oriental du Maroc. Rev. Microbiol. Ind. San et Environn., 12 (1): 71-92, 2018.
– UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION (UNIDO-Morocco). Project “Participatory control
of desertification and poverty reduction in the arid and semi-arid high plateaus ecosystems of Eastern Morocco”,
Project baseline study Report on the main natural disasters frequent in the high plateaus of Eastern Morocco,
Morocco, 2010, 193p.
– UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION (UNIDO-Morocco). Project “Participatory control
of desertification and poverty reduction in the arid and semi-arid high plateaus ecosystems of Eastern Morocco”,
Project baseline study report on the local techniques and know-how in terms of breeding and natural resources
and their management, exploitation and development in the high plateaus of Eastern Morocco, Morocco, 2010, 93p.

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 21
Annex B: List of key informants interviewed
Agricultural agencies
– Director of the Provincial Directorate of Agriculture of Figuig (over 12 years of experience in the study area)
– Head of the Division of Agricultural production chains - Regional Directorate of Agriculture of Oriental-Morocco
(over 20 years of experience in the study area)
Agricultural extension services
– Provincial Director of the National Office of the Agricultural Council (ONCA) - Province of Figuig (over 25years of
experience in the study area)
– Head of the Center of the Agricultural Council - Rural Communes of Tendrara and Maâtaka (over 22 years of
experience in the study area)
– Head of the Center of the Agricultural Council - Rural Communes of Bni Guil and Abbou Lakhal (over 17 years of
experience in the study area)
– Head of the Center of the Agricultural Council - Rural Commune of Bni Mathar (over 8 years of experience in the
study area)
Representatives of pastoral cooperatives
– President of the federation of pastoral cooperatives of the high plateaus of eastern Morocco (68 years old)
– President of the Union of pastoral cooperatives of the tribes of Bni Guil- Tendrara and Maâtrka (57 years old)
– President of the Union of pastoral cooperatives “Union of Rangelands” (33 years old)
– President of the Union of pastoral cooperatives “Ouahda” (58 years old)
– President of the pastoral cooperative “Faress” (65 years old)
Annex C: Interview guide for key informants in the study area
1. Perceptions des changements climatiques Perceptions regarding climate change
Pour vous, à partir des cinq dernières décennies, la tendance est : For you, from the last five decades, the trend is:
1.1. Pour la pluviométrie For rainfall
– Plus de pluie [ ] ; Moins de pluies [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
– Nombre de jours de pluie: Augmentation [ ]; diminution [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
1.2. Pour la température For the temperature
– Fait-il :
– Plus chaud (Oui [ ], Non [ ]); Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
– Plus froid (Oui [ ], Non [ ]); Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
Température maximale: Augmentation [ ]; Diminution [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
Température minimale: Augmentation [ ]; Diminution [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
1.3. Pour le vent For the wind
– Plus de vent [ ]; Moins de vent [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
Ces dernières années, les vents ont tendance à être :
– Plus forts [ ]; Moins forts [ ]; A la fois plus forts parfois et plus faible d’autrefois [ ]; Pas de changement [ ];
Ne sait pas [ ]

22 Wadii Snaibi
1.4. Pour les inondations et les crues For floods
– Les inondations/ crues ont tendance à être :
– Durée: Plus longue [ ]; Moins longue [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
Ampleur:
– Etendue : Plus étendue [ ]; Moins étendue [ ]; Pas de changement [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
– Niveau d’eau : Plus élevé [ ]; Moins élevé [ ]; Normal [ ]; Ne sait pas [ ]
1.5. Classer par ordre d’importance ou d’occurrence ces risques (1: le plus important)
Rank these risks in order of importance or occurrence (1: most important)
Risques Risks:
– Mauvaise répartition des pluies et accourcissement de la saison des pluies (par retard des pluies ou part arrêt
précoce des pluies)
– Accroissement de vents violents
– Chaleur excessive/ fort ensoleillement
– Sécheresse saisonnière/ poches de sécheresses plus fréquentes
– Sécheresse aigue
– Pluies intenses
– Inondations fluviales (par crues)
– Ensablement/ désertification
– Envasement des cours d’eau
– Dégradation des parcours
1.6. Autres perceptions des changements climatiques: Other perceptions of climate change ………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………
2. Conséquences des changements climatiques Consequences of climate change
Consequences on the natural and physical environment, water supply, the daily life of breeders, livestock farming
and household living conditions
2.1. Dans votre zone d’action quels sont les conséquences des changements climatiques les plus visibles sur le
milieu ? (Espèces végétales, Espèces animales, Points d’eau temporaires ou bas-fonds, Champs ou terrains inondés
temporairement, Erosion)
2.2. Quelles sont pour vous les conséquences les plus importantes de ces changements sur le quotidien des éleveurs ces
dernières années ?
2.3. Quels sont les autres conséquences sur l’approvisionnement en eau ?
Mauvaise qualité des eaux: Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Autres: ………………………………………………………………………

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 23
2.4. Quels sont les problèmes causés par les CC sur l’élevage dans votre zone d’action ?
Conséquences sur Ovins Caprins Bovins
Apparition de certaines maladies. Si oui, Les-
quelles?..................................................
Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Recrudescence de certaines maladies. Si oui, Les-
quelles?......................................
Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Disparition de certaines maladies ? Si oui, Les-
quelles?......................................
Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Difficultés de pâture pour alimentation ? Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Difficulté d’abreuvement du cheptel? Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Baisse de performances ? Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Autres………………………………… Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ] Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
2.5. Pensez-vous que ces changements ont un effet sur les conditions de vie du ménage ?
Oui [ ]; Non [ ]. Si oui, comment ? Augmentation du revenu ? Oui [ ]; Non [ ]; Baisse du revenu ? Oui [ ]; Non
[ ]; Autres ? (Préciser)…………………………………………………………………..
3. Adaptation aux changements climatiques Adaptation to climate change
Adaptation options to climate variability and change undertaken and those that your organization can envisage;
the most common strategies that breeders have developed to deal with climate change
3.1. Quels sont les options d’adaptation à la variabilité et au CC entreprises par votre organisation?
(Exemple d’options d’adaptation: Restauration pâturages, Points d’eau, Techniques d’irrigation, Reforestation pentes et bassins
versants, Travaux du sol, Espèces résistantes à la sécheresse, Création assurances et primes climatiques, Autres:………………)
3.2. Y-a-t-il d’autres techniques ou aménagements que vous envisagerez d’entreprendre pour faire face aux changements
climatiques ?: Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
Si oui, lesquels ?..............................................................................................................................................
3.3. Quelles sont les stratégies les plus répandues que les éleveurs ont développé pour faire face aux changements
climatiques ?
Annex D : Pastoral household survey
PARTIE1: CARACTERISTIQUES SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES DE L’ELEVEUR
PART 1: SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BREEDER
1.1 Identification de l’éleveur Identification of the breeder
Nom et prénom
Age
Niveau instruction*
Coopérative
Fraction de tribu
Commune rurale
*1= sans; 2= Coranique; 3=Primaire; 4= Supérieur; 5= Formation Professionnelle.

24 Wadii Snaibi
1.2 Caractéristiques sociodémographiques Sociodemographic characteristics
Activité
princip. ()
Activité
second.
Nb d’enf:
<  ans
Nb d’enf:
>  ans
Nb MO
familiale
Nb MO
salariée
Nb d’enf.
émigrés Maroc
Nb d’enf. émigrés
Etranger
SAU tot.
(ha)
SAU irriguée
(ha)
(1): 1= Elevage; 2= Elevage+ Agriculture; 3= Agriculture; 4= Autre à préciser
1.3 Statut foncier, habitat et matériel agricole Land status, habitat and agricultural equipment
Statut foncier
de la SAU Type Habitat Matériel Nb Matériel Nb Services sociaux Oui/Non
[ ] Melk [ ] En dur Camion Charrette Electricité ONE
[ ] En indivision [ ] Kheima Pickup Citerne Eau potable ONEP
[ ] Collectif [ ] Les deux Tracteur Motopompe Distance marché le + proche (km)
[ ] Location [ ] Gourbi Remorque Autres à préciser Accès au crédit formel
PARTIE2: Systèmes de production
PART 2: Production systems
2.1 Système de production végétale (compagne agricole 2014-2015) Crop production system
Spéculations Superficie (ha) Rendement (qx/ha) Production totale (qx)
Orge
Blé tendre
Blé dur
Luzerne
Maïs fourrager
Olivier
2.2 Elevage: Cheptel animal Breeding: Animal livestock
Espèces Nb total E. du troupeau mère Espèces Nb total
Ovins BG Bovins
Ovins OJ Equidés
Caprins Chevaux & dromadaires
PARTIE3: ALEAS CLIMATIQUES & ACTIONS D’ADAPTATION FACE AU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE
PART 3: CLIMATE HAZARDS & ADAPTATION ACTIONS FACING CLIMATE CHANGE
Par rapport à l’époque des parents, quels sont les aléas et risques climatiques les plus fréquents dans votre CR?
A. Pluies: Rainfall
1. [ ] Baisse des pluies; [ ] Augmentation des pluies
2. Diminution du nombre des jours des pluies : Oui [ ]; Non [ ]

Climate change adaptation in Morocco‘s rangelands 25
3. Début tardif des pluies: Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
4. Augmentation de la fréquence des poches de sécheresse dans la saison des pluies (multiplication des ruptures de
pluies au début et à la fin de la saison pluvieuse entrainant des stress hydriques): Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
5. Pluies violentes causant des dégâts: Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
6. Sécheresses plus fréquentes (prolongement de la durée de la saison sèche) Oui [ ]; Non [ ]
B. Température: Temperature
[ ] Augmentation, [ ] Diminution [ ], Pas de changement [ ]
C. Vents & Tempêtes de sable Winds & Sand storms
1. Vents violents: [ ] Augmentation, [ ] Diminution [ ], Pas de changement [ ]
2. Tempêtes de sable: [ ] Augmentation, [ ] Diminution [ ], Pas de changement [ ]
D. Pratiques d’adaptation: Adaptation practices
Quelles sont les actions d’adaptation face à la sécheresse que vous entreprenez?
Actions d’adaptation Actions d’adaptation
[ ] Transhumances exceptionnelles hors CR [ ] Possession d’une maison au centre urbain
[ ] Utilisation de terroirs complémentaires [ ] Changement d’activité (Si oui, laquelle?)
[ ] Stock fourrager [ ] Utilisation de l’éponge vaginale (pounja)
[ ] Vente régulière d’animaux pour s’approvisionner en aliments de
bétail
[ ] Mise en culture (ou extension des mharets)
[ ] Crédit auprès des spéculateurs d’aliments de bétail [ ] Pratique de l’engraissement
[ ] Association de l’élevage avec d’autres AGR
(petits éleveurs: Intermédiation [ ], petits métiers [ ]
/ grands éleveurs: Commerce [ ], immobilier [ ])
[ ] Vente de l’animal dans un état physique assez
bon ou fini
[ ] Emigration interne ou externe à la recherche d’emplois [ ] Appartenance à l’ANOC
[ ] Appropriation de l’espace pastoral (petits & moyens éleveurs:
Zniga [ ] / grands éleveurs: Tagdal (hourm/oukar) [ ])
[ ] Profit des actions d’amélioration pastorale
(MR, points d’eau, plantations)
[ ] Possession d’un mharet [ ] Travail occasionnel
[ ] Possession ou exploitation quasi continue d’un maader [ ] Assurance multirisque climatique
[ ] Construction en dur dans le parcours [ ] Pratique régulière des soins vétérinaires
[ ] Soutien ou solidarité familiale ou ethnique [ ] Profit du programme de sauvegarde (orge)
[ ] Collecte des trues [ ] Apiculture
[ ] Formation en élevage/agriculture [ ] Possession d’un lot de terrain irrigué