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Impact of climate change on coffee production: An overview
Abstract
The impacts from climate change are already widespread and the consequences have been witnessed all around the world. India is among the countries most affected by climate change according to Global Climate Risk Index (2017) and in particular the southern states where coffee is grown. Coffee is the second largest traded commodity in the world next to petroleum products. The major producing countries are Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, India and Guatemala, whose economies earn considerable foreign exchange from the export of coffee. These countries are facing local and global impacts of climate change over the decades as any fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, humidity, soil nutrients, moisture, sunlight, aeration and soil temperature could impact the growth and productivity of coffee plants. Hence, adaption of mitigation strategies involving actions to reduce global warming is an important option to overcome the impact of climate variations on coffee production.
... Climate change is predicted to have devastating impacts on the agricultural sector globally (Gokavi & Kishor, 2020). In Uganda, where Robusta coffee accounts for 80% of total coffee exports and supports the livelihoods of 9 million Ugandans, the impact of climate change will be felt more (Kagezi et al., 2021). ...
... In Uganda, where Robusta coffee accounts for 80% of total coffee exports and supports the livelihoods of 9 million Ugandans, the impact of climate change will be felt more (Kagezi et al., 2021). Depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that the global surface temperature will rise by an additional 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario or by as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario during the 21st century (Gokavi & Kishor, 2020). This will cause an increase of certain pests (eg coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus) and diseases (eg coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) as temperature rises. ...
... But in doing so, it immediately lowers the amount of CO2 that is available in the chloroplasts, which lowers photosynthetic rates (Damatta & Ramalho, 2006). Thus, systematically developing and putting into practice mitigation and adaptation measures would aid in overcoming upcoming challenges (Gokavi & Kishor, 2020). ...
Background: Previous studies have looked at suitability of Arabica coffee with less emphasis on Robusta coffee. Secondly, they looked at coffee suitability in terms of temperature and rainfall. Methods: This study examined the effect of climate change on soil moisture content for coffee growing in Uganda, using historical (1990-2022) and projected (2025-2050) data from Terraclimate and eight Global Climate Models (GCMs). Soil moisture was analyzed in relation to coffee crop moisture thresholds at the root zone to simulate historical and future coffee suitability under two scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 245 and 585. Results: Soil moisture content in Uganda was characterized by high variability in highland areas during the March to May season among years. Furthermore, there were both decreasing and increasing trends averaging at ±1mm/Month. The future was on the other hand dominated by increasing trends over the western region and eastern-northern regions under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively averaging at 0.2mm/Month. Suitability analysis for 1990-2022 revealed that 71% of Uganda was highly suitable for coffee, while future predictions indicated an increase in suitable areas to 74% under SSP245 and 81% under SSP585. Conclusion: Generally, the higher moisture content associated with climate change will result in increased suitability of coffee by 10%, however, characterized by shifting area suitability especially for the mid-northern and south western regions where a reduction and gain in suitability is expected, respectively. This study highly the importance of identification and adaptation of site-specific soil moisture conservation practices, especially in the unsuitable areas.
... Gokavi, N., (2020). [15] International Journal of Case Studies in Business, IT, and Education (IJCSBE), ISSN: 2581-6942, Vol. 6, No. 2, December 2022 SRINIVAS PUBLICATION ...
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to learn about how in India coffee producers as well as
how the country is gaining international recognition, as well as how India's coffee growing
integration with the global process has caused major difficulties that arise in the coffee
industry's agricultural sector in India and to know how suitable areas for coffee cultivation.
To comprehend major issues confronting coffee-producing countries, and the situation is
steadily deteriorating. To be aware, coffee is thought to have been cultivated for the longest
time outside of the world in India.
Objective: The focus of this article is to understand the background of how coffee was
discovered and brought to India. Additionally, to understand the many varieties and areas of
India that produce coffee utilizing PESTEL analysis
Design/Methodology/Approach: The information for the study was obtained from secondary
sources like google, journal papers, new stories, literature, reports, magazines and books.
Findings: Coffee species that are important for breeding or production are described. Soil
preparation, seedling production, harvesting, and post-harvest processing are all discussed as
important aspects of coffee cultivation. The most critical technological aspects of this crop are
compared, including full sun vs. shaded cultivation systems, arabica vs. Robusta coffee
production, and low vs. high technological input.
Research limitations/implications: There are few sources for references, few topics are not
highlighted, and most of the information is obsolete, thus gathering relevant data was difficult.
Originality/Value: This research is unique in that it aims to trace the past of India's coffee
industries as well as the various coffee laws implemented as an outcome of coffee growers.
Paper type: A Research Case study paper on Growth of Coffee Cultivation on Plantation in India an overview.
Keywords: Coffee origin, Coffee growth, Cultivation, consumption, production, PESTEL
Analysis.
... Gokavi, N., (2020). [15] International Journal of Case Studies in Business, IT, and Education (IJCSBE), ISSN: 2581-6942, Vol. 6, No. 2, December 2022 SRINIVAS PUBLICATION ...
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to learn about how in India coffee producers as well as how the country is gaining international recognition, as well as how India's coffee growing integration with the global process has caused major difficulties that arise in the coffee industry's agricultural sector in India and to know how suitable areas for coffee cultivation. To comprehend major issues confronting coffee-producing countries, and the situation is steadily deteriorating. To be aware, coffee is thought to have been cultivated for the longest time outside of the world in India. Objective: The focus of this article is to understand the background of how coffee was discovered and brought to India. Additionally, to understand the many varieties and areas of India that produce coffee utilizing PESTEL analysis Design/Methodology/Approach: The information for the study was obtained from secondary sources like google, journal papers, new stories, literature, reports, magazines and books. Findings: Coffee species that are important for breeding or production are described. Soil preparation, seedling production, harvesting, and post-harvest processing are all discussed as important aspects of coffee cultivation. The most critical technological aspects of this crop are compared, including full sun vs. shaded cultivation systems, arabica vs. Robusta coffee production, and low vs. high technological input. Research limitations/implications: There are few sources for references, few topics are not highlighted, and most of the information is obsolete, thus gathering relevant data was difficult. Originality/Value: This research is unique in that it aims to trace the past of India's coffee industries as well as the various coffee laws implemented as an outcome of coffee growers. Paper type: A Research Case study paper on Growth of Coffee Cultivation on Plantation in India an overview.
... Many coffee-growing countries have seen their output fluctuate due to temperature changes. The real changes in where and how coffee is grown are expected as a result of global warming (Gokavi & Kishor, 2020). According to scientists, one of the world's most popular beverages may become extinct if conservation and monitoring measures are not implemented (Davis et al., 2012;Feria-Morales, 2002;Castillo et al., 2020). ...
Coffee is a strategic cash crop for poverty reduction and economic growth in Nigeria,
and it is consumed worldwide, making it a significant source of income at both the micro and
macro levels. This study analysed the trends in ' 'Nigeria's coffee output and the short and longrun determinants of coffee output in Nigeria. A period of 38 years was considered and the data
were sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank and the International
Coffee Organization. The linear trend and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were
instrumental in the data analysis. The trend analysis reveals that coffee output is decreasing,
necessitating immediate action. Fertiliser use and land availability for farmers require extra
attention in the short run because they are significant and had a positive impact on coffee output.
In the long-run climate change, producer price and fertiliser use negatively impact the coffee
farmers' output. The need to make land easily accessible to coffee farmers by amending land use
regulations to ensure the conservation and expansion of farmlands is one of the most notable
recommendations of this study.
Keywords: Coffee; Output; Dynamics; Price; Climate; Land
... Coffee is a perennial plant growing under a shade canopy and requires optimum climatic conditions for its growth and development. Coffee cultivation in India is confined mostly to hilly tracts of Western and Eastern Ghats, as a well-distributed annual rainfall is preferable (Nagaraj and Kishor, 2020). In general, the area and production of coffee in India are about 4.16 lakh ha and 3.19 lakh MT respectively, with a productivity of 767 kg per ha (Database Coffee Board of India, 2019). ...
The study was undertaken to analyze the behaviour of coffee under changing climatic conditions in different coffee liaison zones of Karnataka State, India, during 2017-2020. Sample estates were identified based on elevation and rainfall patterns in different zones of the Chikkamagaluru and Hassan districts. The leaf growth parameters, bean characteristics and yield components were recorded in all the sample estates. Correlation studies indicated a significant positive relationship between the elevation, rainfall with specific leaf area (r = +0.912) and productivity (r = 0.475) during the pre-monsoon period. The monthly summer rainfall during March and April showed a significant correlation with yield in robusta (r = 0.511) and arabica (r = 0.451), indicating that blossom shower during this period significantly influenced the productivity of coffee. The studies between elevation, the quantum of rainfall and bean defect parameters indicated a significant (p<0.05) positive correlation. A positive relationship was also found between elevation and peaberry production in both robusta (r = 0.716) and arabica coffee (r= 0.456), respectively. However, there was also a significant relationship between rainfall (2020) and Jollu percentage (r = 0.386) in robusta coffee, indicating that higher elevation and rainfall-induced more peaberry content and Jollu percentage under changing climatic conditions. The overall result indicated that changes in climatic conditions such as excess rainfall and continuous soil moisture led to more vegetative growth than reproductive growth. This also produced more bean abnormalities which in turn affected the yield and quality of the coffee.
... Hal tersebut selaras dengan hasil penelitian (Tri et al., 2015); (Astuti et al., 2020) yang menyatakan bahwa kondisi cuaca dan iklim yang tidak menentu mampu mempengaruhi produksi kopi, meningkatkan insiden, mengancam kelangsungan budidaya kopi (Andrade et al., 2012); (Partelli et al., 2013); (Poltronieri dan Rossi, 2016); (Bongase dan Jimma, 2017) dan mengancam mata pencaharian di banyak negara penghasil kopi (Krishnan dan Gardens, 2017), karena menyebabkan fluktuasi suhu, curah hujan, kelembaban, nutrisi tanah, kelembaban, sinar matahari, abrasi dan suhu tanah, sehingga mempengaruhi pertumbuhan dan produktivitas tanaman kopi (Aritonang, 2018); (Erfandari et al., 2019); (Gokavi dan Kishor, 2020); (Hidayah et al., 2019). Sehingga kondisi iklim memiliki peran besar dalam produksi kopi (Indzere et al., 2018); (Kath et al., 2021). ...
Indonesia has a potency in the coffee sector. Many robusta coffee farmers really depending on the coffee sector. For the example, 75% of coffee farmers in Temanggung Regency work in the robusta coffee sector. Fluctuations and declining coffee production can be a burden for coffee potency optimization and decreasing the income of the coffee farmers. This study aims to determine the factors that can affect the declining of Robusta coffee production in Temanggung Regency. The analytical methods used in this study are Value Chain Analysis, Forward Linkage and Backward Linkage, and Fishbone Analysis. The author is using secondary and primary data. Secondary data was obtained from Statistics Indonesia and Directorate General of Plantations at the Ministry of Agriculture.Primary data was obtained from interviews with 3 key informans Robusta coffee farmers in Gesing Village who eligible. The result showed that age of plants and distance of each plants, lack of coffee picking services, weather and lack of cooperation and other sectors, such as the trade sector and the industrial sector can lead into a decreasing of coffee production.
... The results examined that the Robusta coffee growth rate was 58 percent in Karnataka but in Kerala it was declined from 47 to 38 percent during 1997-2017. Tamil Nadu showed the lower share of production (6 percent during 2012-17) with 13 percent of area [10][11][12][13]. ...
Coffee, a predominant plantation crop is a highly traded commodity and mostly consumed as a hot beverage. India stands seventh among the world coffee producing countries. Consumption is higher in south India. India grows Arabica and Robusta coffee. Consumption of coffee in India increased at 2 percent per annum till 2020 and after that there was 5 per cent growth rate (ShrutiArun, 2020). The present study was proposed with the objective of studying the trend in area, production, yield of Arabica and Robusta coffee in India and Tamil Nadu and predicting the same. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Analysis was used to find the trend in area, production and yield of coffee. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used for forecasting the area and production of Arabica and Robusta in India till 2025. Area, production, yield of Arabica and Robusta coffee in India showed a positive trend. A negative trend was observed in productivity of Arabica coffee in India. Whereas in Tamil Nadu, area of Arabica and Robusta coffee showed positive trend, a negative trend was seen in production and productivity of Arabica and Robusta. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for Arabica and ARIMA (1, 1, 0) found to provide best fit for predicting the area and production of Robusta coffee in India.
The agricultural sector of Colombia supports the national economy and food security due to the rich lands for cultivation. Although Colombia has a vast hydrological basin, climate change can impact agricultural productivity, generating economic and social adverse effects. For this, we evaluated the impact of some environmental variables on the production of the most sold crops using production, climatic, and hydrological data of the 1121 municipalities from 2007 to 2020. We modeled the production of coffee, rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and corn, adopting a Bayesian spatio-temporal model that involved a set of environmental variables: average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, vapor pressure, radiation, and wind speed. We found that increases in the average temperatures can affect coffee (-0.2% per °C), rice (-3.76% per °C), and sugarcane (-0.19% per °C) production, meanwhile, these increases can boost palm oil (+2.55% per °C) and corn (+1.28% per °C) production in Colombia. This statement implies that the agricultural sector needs to substitute land use, promoting the production of palm oil and corn. Although our results did not find a significant effect of hydrological variables in any crop, suggesting that the abundance of water in Colombia might balance the impact of these variables. The increases in vapor pressure impact all the crops negatively (between -11.2% to -0.43% per kPa), except rice, evidencing that dry air conditions affect agricultural production. Colombia must manage the production location of the traditional products and implement agro-industrial technologies to avoid the climate change impact on crops.
This study aims to explore descriptively the development of coffee plants in Indonesia. This research uses literature study and secondary data. Data mainly obtained from Coffee Statistics published by Indonesian Statistic Center. The results showed that the People's Plantation is the largest coffee plantation, with the highest production and highest productivity. Meanwhile, large state-owned companies and large private companies tend to experience a decrease in both the area of coffee plantations, their production, and productivity. In Indonesia, the provinces with the largest areas and high production followed by productivity are the provinces of South Sumatra, Lampung, Aceh, North Sumatra, and Bengkulu.
Climate change significantly impacts coffee production and quality. On the other side, the coffee plantation is dominated by smallholder plantations with limited capabilities. Farmers have implemented Climate-Smart Agriculture by improving the cultivation system. However, the level of technology adoption at the farmer level is not optimal due to the capacity and resources of farmers and the technology dissemination support system. This study aims to analyze the environmental management implementation in coffee smallholder plantations and design an Agricultural Innovation System to accelerate its implementation. The study was carried out in the Robusta coffee development area in Rejang Lebong Regency, Bengkulu Province. The analysis was performed using descriptive statistics. Environmental management in coffee smallholder plantations is related to water management, soil management, and integrated pest diseases management. The application of CSA practices is limited to a few farmers. Smallholder plantations have limited resources, weak risk management, limited access to finance and technology. Farmer organizations, networks, and social capital management have not been developed optimally. Hence the Agricultural Innovation System for supporting environmental management implementation on coffee plantations becomes strategic. The system consists of research and education, agribusiness, bridging system, and innovation ecosystem as a supporting environment.
Globally, India has the highest percentage of land under cultivation but productivity and effective utilization of the natural resources are very poor in condition. Among the agricultural crops, Rice is the most important water consuming food crop cultivated in India. Poor water management practices in rice crops threatening the sustainability of the irrigated cropping system and food security in India. At the same time, Indian agricultural sector has to produce more food grains (Mainly high water consuming Rice) to feed the increasing population pressure. So, effective water conservation technologies and utilization are needed for sustainable rice production to meet out the emerging food demand of such a huge populated country. The current major problems of improper management of watersheds, not practicing desiltation works in tanks, canals, tank banks, inefficient lowland rice cultivation irrigation and agronomic practices in farm lands leads the issues of water scarcity leading to crop failure. So, there is a need to economize on water use in rice production. Under this background some of the water conservation technologies useful to save the water and increases the rice productivity in India were discussed below. It follows, Construction of field channels, leveling the rice fields, good puddling practices in Rice fields,bund maintenance in Rice fields, community seedbeds in rice,rice cultivation by direct wet seeding and direct dry seeding method, water saving through alternate Wetting-and-Drying (AWD), System of Rice Intensification (SRI) practices, Conservation Agriculture are some of the best water management agronomic practices to improve the productivity of Rice crop and conservation of the water. Further, more demonstrations and trainings were suggested solutions for adoption of these water conservation technologies to improving the rice water productivity in India, the watershed based management practices should be integrated in a participatory manner with the rice farmers. some of the constrains in adoption of the practices were, less awareness , requirement of time and skilled labour in the mechanical operations and less awareness on weather forecasting and irrigation scheduling also important constraints. Finally, to rectify the problems, separate mission on water conservation in Rice is recommended for faster adoption of the water saving technologies in the rice production.
• The African coffee white stem borer (CWSB) Monochamus leuconotus is a destructive pest of Arabica coffee in Africa. Documentation on outbreaks, spatiotemporal development and the relationship with different environmental conditions and coffee production system is limited.
• To underpin effective control measures, we studied aspects of local and regional pest drivers in Eastern Uganda.
• At the local scale, we (i) characterized the temporal development of CWSB and explored associations with environmental and shade‐related indicators. During two growing seasons and on 84 coffee plots, we recorded CWSB incidence/infestation and microclimate on an altitudinal gradient and different shading systems. The bimodal rainfall, altitude and shade affected CWSB development through their effect on minimum temperature.
• At the landscape level, we (ii) analyzed the spatial pattern of CWSB. Data on CWSB were collected on 180 plots. Pest incidence showed a spatial arrangement varying by districts. A possible relationship with human movement and the landscape context contributing to pest spread is suggested.
• CWSB control measures should be synchronized with the bimodal rainfall patterns and an emphasis should be given to identifying and limiting pathways of pest spread from highly infested to new areas.
Coffee is one of the most important plantation crops, grown in about 80 countries across the world. The genus Coffea comprises approximately 100 species of which only two species, that is, Coffea arabica (commonly known as arabica coffee) and Coffea canephora (known as robusta coffee), are commercially cultivated. Genetic improvement of coffee through traditional breeding is slow due to the perennial nature of the plant. Genetic transformation has tremendous potential in developing improved coffee varieties with desired agronomic traits, which are otherwise difficult to achieve through traditional breeding. During the last twenty years, significant progress has been made in coffee biotechnology, particularly in the area of transgenic technology. This paper provides a detailed account of the advances made in the genetic transformation of coffee and their potential applications.
Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt.)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.
Under two contrasting light regimes (full sun and 45% shade) and the optimal coffee-growing conditions of the central valley of Costa Rica, production pattern, bean characteristics and beverage quality were assessed over two production cycles on dwarf coffee (Coffea arabica L. cv. Costa Rica 95) trees with varying fruit loads (quarter, half and full loads) imposed by manual fruit thinning. Shade decreased coffee tree productivity by 18% but reduced alternate bearing. Shade positively affected bean size and composition as well as beverage quality by delaying berry flesh ripening by up to 1 month. Higher sucrose, chlorogenic acid and trigonelline contents in sun-grown beans pointed towards incomplete bean maturation and explained the higher bitterness and astringency of the coffee beverage. Higher fruit loads reduced bean size owing to carbohydrate competition among berries during bean filling. These results have important implications in terms of agricultural management (shade, fruit thinning, tree pruning) to help farmers increase coffee plantation sustainability, produce coffee beans of larger size and higher quality and ultimately improve their revenues, especially during times of world overproduction. Copyright © 2005 Society of Chemical Industry
Project CAFNET-An effort to document the ecosystem survices from coffee based agro-forestry system in Kodagu
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