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The effects of terrorism on tourism demand: A systematic review

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Abstract

A vast literature has focused on the effects of terrorism on tourism demand. This article aims to contribute to this strand of literature by systematically reviewing existing studies and subsequently synthesising their findings. Based on a systematic search of the Web of Science and Scopus databases, a total of 45 peer-reviewed English-language articles were included. The review was conducted and reported under Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The general conclusion is that, with some exceptions, terrorism negatively affects tourism demand. To decompose the effects of terrorism on tourism demand, several main themes were identified within the studies. However, effects varied widely depending on context, for example, terrorism and tourism demand variables used or locations and time periods studied. Consequently, the review identifies gaps in existing research and provides important suggestions for future studies.

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... Lv and Xu (2017) examined the effect of corruption and various factors on tourism demand and found that the effect of corruption on tourism demand varies for various levels of corruption. Studies further supported the negative impact of low-security levels on tourism demand (Krajňák, 2021). There are also studies that show that the effects of terrorism events are seen after the violence exceeds a certain level. ...
... Besides terrorism, explanatory (control) variables such as income (e.g. real GDP per capita), tourist expenditurebased prices, binary exchange rates, transportation costs, population size, temporal variables, lagged variables, other forms of political violence, and dummy for various events variables were used in the analysis (Krajňák, 2021). ...
Article
It is of great importance for countries to increase the contribution of the tourism sector to the economy. Therefore, the authorities focus on how to increase the demand for tourism. However, the most important issue is to define the factors that influence the demand for tourism in a complex environment and this study attempts to contribute to this field. Specifically, the study examines the effects of REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) and security conditions on tourism demand using panel data methods for 73 countries, in the tourism ranking list from UNWTO reports, over the period 2003-2018. The main results of this study show that while the effect of REER on tourism demand is negative, the security condition has a positive effect on the demand for the tourism sector. In addition to these findings which confirm the existing literature, the innovative character of the methodology – fixed-effect panel quantile regression analysis - allowed us to check whether the effects of these variables may vary in different percentiles of tourism demand. Estimation result reveals that the effect of change in REER on tourism demand increases in high percentiles. Nevertheless, the effect of the security on tourism demand decreases as percentiles increase.
... This, along with other terrorist attacks, significantly influences the economic condition of the country, such as European countries, which lost from 0.8 to 1 billion USD due to terrorist attacks in Paris [55]. Terrorism practices spread fear, discourages investors and demotivates tourists; hence, it provides a strong negative nexus for economic development [56,57]. Pakistan was also a major victim of terrorism (GTD) after 9/11, which brought huge losses to the country in all directions (economically, socially, security-wise, etc.). ...
... Terrorism spreads fear, threatens tourists, has a negative impact worldwide, and discourages investor and the local community. The study findings show that terrorism has a strong negative influence on the tourism industry, which means terrorism leads to a direct decline in tourism's role in economic development, which aligns with the previous finding [55][56][57]59,71]. In addition, the study also reveals that inflation, which presents the country's stability, has a negative nexus regarding the tourism industry because inflation reflects the certainty/uncertainty in the country. ...
Article
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... This, along with other terrorist attacks, significantly influences the economic condition of the country, such as European countries, which lost from 0.8 to 1 billion USD due to terrorist attacks in Paris [55]. Terrorism practices spread fear, discourages investors and demotivates tourists; hence, it provides a strong negative nexus for economic development [56,57]. Pakistan was also a major victim of terrorism (GTD) after 9/11, which brought huge losses to the country in all directions (economically, socially, security-wise, etc.). ...
... Terrorism spreads fear, threatens tourists, has a negative impact worldwide, and discourages investor and the local community. The study findings show that terrorism has a strong negative influence on the tourism industry, which means terrorism leads to a direct decline in tourism's role in economic development, which aligns with the previous finding [55][56][57]59,71]. In addition, the study also reveals that inflation, which presents the country's stability, has a negative nexus regarding the tourism industry because inflation reflects the certainty/uncertainty in the country. ...
Article
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Abstract: Tourism has played an influential role in global economies. It is considered the third largest socio-economic sector and contributes about 9% to the world economy’s GDP. Tourism enhances investments, creates job opportunities, harnesses entrepreneurship, and secures heritage and cultural values and norms. However, tourism faces serious challenges in developing countries, especially in Pakistan. Therefore, the main aim of the current study is to examine the influential factors that affect the tourism sector and exhibit the nexus between tourism and economic development in Pakistan. The study collected data from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Pakistan Tourism Statistics, and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the period from 1995 to 2017. The results of the study present that terrorism, which hampers peace and certainty, tourism expenditure, and inflation rate, has a strong influence on the tourism sector in Pakistan. Moreover, the study also disclosed that tourism boosts the long-term macro-economic factors and leads to the economic development of Pakistan
... This, along with other terrorist attacks, significantly influences the economic condition of the country, such as European countries, which lost from 0.8 to 1 billion USD due to terrorist attacks in Paris [55]. Terrorism practices spread fear, discourages investors and demotivates tourists; hence, it provides a strong negative nexus for economic development [56,57]. Pakistan was also a major victim of terrorism (GTD) after 9/11, which brought huge losses to the country in all directions (economically, socially, security-wise, etc.). ...
... Terrorism spreads fear, threatens tourists, has a negative impact worldwide, and discourages investor and the local community. The study findings show that terrorism has a strong negative influence on the tourism industry, which means terrorism leads to a direct decline in tourism's role in economic development, which aligns with the previous finding [55][56][57]59,71]. In addition, the study also reveals that inflation, which presents the country's stability, has a negative nexus regarding the tourism industry because inflation reflects the certainty/uncertainty in the country. ...
Article
Full-text available
Tourism has played an influential role in the global economies. It is considered the third largest socio-economic sector and contributes about 9% to the world economy’s GDP. Tourism enhances investments, creates job opportunities, harnesses entrepreneurship, and secures heritage and cultural values and norms. However, tourism faces serious challenges in developing countries, especially in Pakistan. Therefore, the main aim of the current study is to examine the influential factors that affect the tourism sector and exhibit the nexus between tourism and economic development in Pakistan. The study collected data from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Pakistan Tourism Statistics, and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the period from 1995 to 2017. The results of the study present that terrorism, which hampers peace and certainty, tourism expenditure and inflation rate, has a strong influence on the tourism sector in Pakistan. Moreover, the study also disclosed that tourism boosts the long-term macro-economic factors and leads to the economic development of Pakistan.
... demand has been the most distinct and recurring theme of this cluster according to its citing articles [40,237,[256][257][258][259][260][261][262][263]. This cluster also has some degrees of heterogeneity, and while it is predominantly linked to the relationship between terrorism threat and tourism, it generally addresses a range of economics-related topics [264,265] including the impact on foreign investment [241,266], the impact on stock/financial markets and investments [267][268][269][270], the impact on the global economy [271,272] or the effect of income inequality and economic growth on terrorism [273][274][275]. ...
... Despite the fact that our analysis identified the topic of economic impacts of terrorism as one of the currently most active areas of this field, only a few review studies are found on this topic. Dabic et al. [322] reported on a bibliometric analysis of the nexus between terrorism and tourism, while the study of Krajnak [259] reported on a more recent and a conventional systematic review on the adverse effects of terrorism on tourism demand. The meta-analysis of Park and Newaz [270] investigated the potential of such adverse impacts on financial markets. ...
Article
Scholarly literature on terrorism is analysed in its full scope with three main goals: (i) to objectively determine the structural makeup of the field, (ii) to document its current and past temporal trends; and (iii) to identify underrepresented areas. The size of the literature is estimated to have exceeded 18,000 items. At the highest level of aggregation, the field is found to be composed of three major divisions representing: (a) political, ideological and criminological, (b) economic, (s) psychological; and (d) emergency response aspects of terrorism research. The literature has been largely driven and guided by outside political events. Two major spikes in the intensity of this research are distinctly identifiable. The extent of research triggered by and linked to the September 11 attacks has been such that it has generated its own stream of research, although, activities associated with this cluster have notably slowed down since 2010. Two major research streams—one linked to “domestic terrorism” and a newer stream linked to “economic impacts of terrorism (particularly, on tourism and financial markets)”—are identified as currently the trendiest topics of this research. Research on “right-wing/far-right” terrorism, although not new in this domain, shows clear signs of re-emergence and surge of activities. The analyses also identify gaps where further research is required. Most notable on that front is the striking paucity of empirical research on human behavior (i.e., civilian response) during (or in the aftermath of) terror attacks. Largely overlooked in this domain is the potential role of individual mental preparedness and/or peace-time training in mitigating the impact of terror events and increasing communities' self-efficacy in the face of terror. The multitude of dimensions that branch out from this single notion could potentially form a new cluster of terrorism research—possibly, a multidisciplinary crossover between the existing psychology and emergency response divisions—whose findings can help better prepare the public and reduce impacts of terror attacks on civilian communities. Some of these dimensions include (a) developing scales/inventories for measuring public preparedness level to react to terror attacks, (b) determining best response strategies to various forms of terror attacks, (c) identifying public misconceptions about best response, (d) examining public conformity and acceptance of training programs, (e) identifying effective means/media of raising awareness, (f) break down knowledge retainment barriers, and (g) determining best means of utilising bystander role as “zero responders” during terror attacks and capitalising on civilians’ altruistic tendencies for terror impact mitigation.
... According to prospect theory, people tend to overreact to events with low probabilities because they overweight them. Terrorist cases are a good example of these situations, and their effect on tourism demand has been studied by Krajňák (2021). If a destination has suffered a terrorist attack, people will select an alternative tourism destination: a destination that might even have threats (for example, ordinary criminality) with a greater likelihood of occurrence, but the consequences are not so dramatic as in the case of terrorist attacks. ...
... Table 1 lists the frequency of terrorist target categories and frequency of terrorist attacks per city in Kenya from March 1975-December 2017. There is a bi-directional causality between tourism and terrorism, with terrorism negatively affecting tourism demand (Krajňák 2021). These attacks and the political unrest climate that these underpin, caused, among others, booking cancelations and reduction to bank loans for tourism investments (Kabii 2018). ...
Article
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The economic development of many countries globally relies heavily on tourism arrivals and spending. Terrorist attacks, political unrest, and other external shocks create disruptions and imbalances that lead to tourism crises with devastating effects on a country’s economy. The paper quantitatively examines the wider economic impacts and welfare effects of a continued decrease in tourism revenues caused by terrorism and political instability on the Kenyan economy. We use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model which we calibrate to a 2003 Social Accounting Matrix for Kanya. Our results reveal that a decrease in tourism spending causes a contraction of the economy in the short-term and long-term. Tourism contraction leads to decreased output, prices and wages in urban households, whereas the rural households notice an increase in welfare in the short and medium-term and a decrease in the long-term. Diversification of the tourism product, better branding, crisis management preparations and emphasis on domestic tourism that is less affected by disruption are ways to safeguard tourism in Kenya and beyond.
... Its assurance is regarded as one of the most pressing issues now facing the industry around the world [ However, "a tourism crisis can take an infinite variety of forms and have been occurring regularly for many years" [3], according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Historically, terrorism [4], political instability [5], economic crises [6], financial problems [7], natural disasters [8], and infectious diseases [9] have caused major blows to the global tourism industry. As the UNWTO warns: "Never underestimate the possible harm a crisis can do to your tourism. . . ...
Article
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Perceived risk clearly impacts travel behavior, including destination selection and satisfaction, but it is unclear how or why its effect is only significant in certain cases. This is because existing studies have undervalued the mediating factors of risk aversion, government initiatives, and media influence as well as the multiple forms or dimensions of risk that can mask its direct effect. This study constructs a structural equation model of perceived risk’s impact on destination image and travel intention for a more nuanced model of the perceived risk mechanism in tourism, based on 413 e-questionnaires regarding travel to Chengdu, China during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the Bootstrap method to analyze suppressing effect. It finds that while perceived risk has a significant negative impact on destination image and travel intention, this is complexly mediated so as to appear insignificant. Furthermore, different mediating factors and dimensions of perceived risk operate differently according to their varied combinations in actual circumstances. This study is significant because it provides a theoretical interpretation of tourism risk, elucidates the mechanisms or paths by which perceived risk affects travel intention, and expands a framework for research on destination image and travel intention into the realms of psychology, political, and communication science. It additionally encourages people to pay greater attention to the negative impact of crises and focuses on the important role of internal and external responses in crisis management, which can help improve the effectiveness of crisis management and promote the sustainable development of the tourism industry.
... Several studies agreed that terrorism harms tourism (Pizam & Fleischer, 2002;Abadie & Gardeazabal, 2003;Hanon & Wang, 2020;Krajňák, 2021;Seabra et al., 2020). However, many researchers went beyond this point and studied the magnitude of this effect (Enders & Sandler, 1991;Drakos & Kutan, 2003;Neumayer, 2004;Saha & Yap, 2014;Voltes-Dorta et al., 2016). ...
Article
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The booming tourism sector in Turkey has resulted in major economic gains in terms of direct revenues to both government and private sectors alike. Turkey had more than 45 million visits in 2018, and top inbound arrivals were from Russia and European Union (EU) members, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Bulgaria, among others (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2020). However, terrorism is becoming a challenge to tourism development. This study explores terrorism–tourism dynamics in Turkey. The short- and long-run impacts of terror attacks on tourism revenues were examined within the framework of an autoregressive lag (ARDL) model using monthly data for the period between 2012 and 2018. The empirical findings did not support terrorism's effects on tourism revenues. However, in the long run, terror-related casualties and fatalities on tourism revenues had different effects. The findings affirm that the casualty rate has a stronger impact on terrorism–tourism dynamics in Turkey because a 1% increase in reported injuries from terror attacks hampers revenues by approximately 0.1%. Hence, adequate and continuous support for general security establishments is imperative while strengthening commitments to the international cooperation on the war against terrorism to proactively contain the undesirable impacts of terrorism in the Turkish tourism industry
... Opačný proces, kdy nejrůznější události ohrožují turismus, je často probíraným výzkumným tématem zejména kvůli předpokládaným dopadům na poptávku v turismu. Hrozby přírodního a antropogenního charakteru zapříčiňují pokles příjezdů a příjmů z turismu v přímo zasažených destinacích i v jejich okolí (Krajňák 2020). Pokud jsou okolní destinace vnímané jako bezpečné alternativy, mohou mít z krize v zasažené destinaci naopak prospěch. ...
Article
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Nemoci představují pro turismus významnou překážku. Cílem článku je nastínit jak a proč byl turismus zasažen pandemií covidu-19. Zásadní byla protiepidemická opatření zahrnující uzavření hranic a omezení volnočasového pohybu osob. Dokazují to jak data z ubytovacích zařízení, tak z turistických cílů včetně zoo, na jejichž příkladu je situace ilustrována. Největší ztráty zaznamenaly destinace závislé na mezinárodním turismu. // The effects of the pandemic on tourism and recreation. Diseases are substantial constraints for tourism. The present article aims to delineate how and why tourism has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Anti-epidemic measures, including the closure of borders and restrictions on leisure mobility, were substantial. This is shown by data from accommodation establishments as well as from tourist attractions, namely zoos, which are used in the article to illustrate the situation. The highest losses were recorded by destinations dependent on international tourism.
... Terrorism has had a greater negative effect on tourism, especially in recent years, as foreign tourist cities have become more vulnerable to terrorist attacks. For example, in 2015-2017, terrorist activities reduced the tourism revenue of Paris by about US $2 billion [22,23]. Meanwhile, terrorism affects domestic tourists [24,25]. ...
Article
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Terrorism poses a huge threat to economic development. Based on the data of terrorist activities provided by the Global Terrorism Database, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of terrorist activities in Xinjiang. Using Gradient Boosting Regression Tree and generalized moment estimation, the impact of terrorism on Xinjiang’s economic growth and fixed asset investment is empirically analyzed from 2007 to 2017. The results show that investment in fixed assets has an important characteristic degree to economic development without other external factors. After introducing the internal and external conflict, the importance ranking of each index to gross domestic product has changed. The effect of exogenous shock is also demonstrated by the robustness test. Also, terrorist activities have a great hindrance to economic growth. The fixed assets investment and foreign investment play a positive role in promoting economic growth in Xinjiang, especially the fixed asset investment. Although there is no significant correlation between terrorist activities and fixed asset investment, terrorist activities still increase the fixed asset investment.
... Subsequent work, for both individual case studies and small groups of countries, have confirmed initial findings that tourism demand falls shortly after terrorist attacks, that there is a contagion effect as terrorism in any country deterred tourists from the continent overall, and that there is market substitution between countries (e.g., Drakos and Kutan 2003;Fletcher and Morakabati 2008;Feridun 2011;Seabra, Reis, and Abrantes 2020). See Krajnák (2020) for an extensive review of the recent literature. ...
Article
This article exploits the Arab Spring, which occurred in 2011, as a natural experiment to study the effect of political upheavals on international travel. We find that foreign tourists’ demand to travel to countries experiencing Arab Spring episodes was sharply reduced and persisted after two years. We also find evidence of two different spillover effects: a tourism diversion to rest of the world, and a regional contagion to geographically nearby countries (other Arab countries that did not experience Arab Spring episodes and the Mediterranean region, although with heterogenous effects across individual countries). To disentangle how spillovers are channeled, we test whether geographical and cultural (Islamic) affinity play any role. We find that diversion is explained by the attitudes of Western tourists but not of those whose origin is Arabic. Furthermore, we find that the contagion caused by the Arab Spring is stronger for the nearest Muslim countries. JEL codes: F14, F51, H12, O11
... While an inverse relationship exists between tourism development and property crime (Bianchi and Chen, 2021), tourists first need to feel safe and visit the destination for the tourism development to occur. Uncertain and unsafe environments diminish people's willingness to visit a place, let alone extreme situations such as during pandemics or terrorism attacks (Krajňák, 2020). In the framework of sports tourism, the study of Kim, Choi, and Leopkey analyzes risk-related factors that have a negative influence on people's intentions to travel to a mega sporting event. ...
... Numerous studies have examined the effects of terrorism on tourism, with most researchers confirming the negative relationship (Krajňák, 2020). This study notes Ryan (1993) and Faulkner (2001), who establish the general framework for the relation between terrorism and tourism and the policy responses. ...
Article
This study examines the determinants of the relationship between terrorism and tourism, by testing different proxies to assess both the frequency and the severity of terrorist activity. The methodological approach includes implementing Principal Component Analysis into four different sets of possible proxies for terrorism in order to examine their relationship with international tourism arrivals over the period 1998-2018. The dataset includes world tourist flows and terrorist incidents anywhere in the world in order to avoid regional effects. The empirical results show that all candidate proxies exhibit a long-run, negative relationship with tourism, while there is also an impact of tourism on terrorism, with conflicting directions between the short run and the long run. The findings suggest that increased terrorist activity may cause destination substitution in the short run but will have adverse effects in the long run. In addition, authorities should be prepared for a rise in terrorist incidents during periods with increased tourist flows. Finally, research on terrorism should take into account the qualitative characteristics of terrorist activities.
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The tourism sector is a complex field that has impacts on the economy and the environment. With good planning and policies, these impacts can be mitigated and become a strategy for tourism sustainability through the development of human resources (HR). Prior research seems to have not contributed to halal tourism, so this study aims to analyze the relationship between the human development index and the performance of the Organization Islamic Cooperation halal tourism, as well as its relationship to economic and environmental sustainability. This research was conducted using quantitative research methods for the dataset of 47 countries that are members of the OIC. Studies were analyzed by PLS-SEM using PLS 3.0. The findings reveal that the human development index is significant to the halal tourism performance of countries that are members of the OIC and is related to economic and environmental sustainability. The performance of halal tourism is determined by the development of superior human resources, so that human resources provide a competitive advantage for Islamic countries and improve the quality of their country's halal tourism. Through this study, the government can build a halal tourism framework by highlighting the human development index so that it can contribute more to halal tourism so as to create green halal tourism through social, economic and environmental sustainability. It is hoped that the OIC countries can improve the quality of human resources so that problems in the economic and environmental fields can become a strategy for the sustainability of halal tourism in the future.Keywords: Human, Development, Halal, Tourism, Sustainability
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The literature on the effects of security threats such as terrorism, political instability, and geopolitical power-plays on travel and tourism has produced mixed results with scant attention paid to the spillover effects on the tourism economy (e.g., employment, leisure expenditure, travel, and tourism services’ contribution to gross domestic product). This study provides a conceptual framework for the transmission of direct, indirect, and induced spillover effects of security threats on travel and tourism service industries. It uses rigorous methodological design and non-spatial and spatial panel-data analyses to examine the effects of security threats on tourism demand and economy. The conceptual framework and results of spatial panel data provide novel insights into security threats’ spillover effects on spatial inter-connectivity in the tourism service industry. The results show that security threat indices have significant negative impacts on tourist receipts, but they also contribute positively to employment, leisure expenditure, and tourist arrivals. Our conceptual model and substantial findings will inform both policymakers and future research.
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The COVID‐19 outbreak has affected everyday lives worldwide. As governments started to implement confinement and business closure measures, the economic impact was felt by entire societies immediately. The urgency of such a theme has led researchers to study the phenomenon. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to provide the state of the art on relevant dimensions and hot topics of research to understand the economic impacts of COVID‐19. In this survey, we conduct a text mining analysis of 301 articles published during 2020 which analyzed such economic impacts. By defining a set of relevant dimensions grounded on existing literature, we were able to extract a set of coherent topics that aggregate the collected articles, characterized by the predominance of a few sets of dimensions. We found that the impact on “financial markets” was widely studied, especially in relation to Asia. Next, we found a more diverse range of themes analyzed in Europe, from “government measures” to “macroeconomic variables.” We also discovered that America has not received the same degree of attention, and “institutions,” “Africa,” or “other pandemics” were studied less. We anticipate that future research will proliferate focusing on several themes, from environmental issues to the effectiveness of government measures.
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Purpose Tourism development is critical for economic transformation, particularly in emerging economies. However, the growing spate of terrorism dissuades international tourists, reduces tourism receipts and ultimately hampers the tourism sector's performance. Thus, the government intervenes by altering its military spending to curtail terrorism. Against this backdrop, this study examines the moderating role of military spending in the terrorism–tourism nexus in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) to investigate the moderating role of military spending in the terrorism–tourism nexus in Nigeria. The authors employ the data that cover the period 1995Q1–2019Q4. Findings The results reveal that terrorism has a catastrophic effect on tourism arrivals in Nigeria while military spending has a positive impact on tourism arrivals. The results further show the moderating role of military spending in the terrorism–tourism nexus is positive and statistically significant. However, the findings are subject to the measures of military spending, terrorism and tourism. Practical implications The practical implication of the findings is the need for deliberate and strategic budgeting for the Ministry of Defence to combat terrorism, which should not only focus on the procurement of arms and ammunition but also cover the welfare of the military personnel. Nigeria also needs to formulate and implement necessary tourism policies aimed at countering terrorism in a bid to create and maintain a positive image on the global tourist map. Originality/value Many studies, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria, had examined the effect of terrorism on tourism but none has examined the moderating role of military spending in the terrorism–tourism nexus. Hence, this study examines the moderating role of military spending in the relationship between terrorism and tourism in Nigeria, a terrorism-prone country with several tourist sites.
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The essence of the research concerns the impact of armed conflicts and terrorist attacks on the arrivals of foreign tourists with Egypt selected as the testing ground. It was found that revolutions and terrorist attacks have a negative impact on the development of the tourism industry – following the social unrest that took place in Egypt in the years 1997, 2011 and 2015, the number of arrivals of foreign tourists decreased by: 13%, 33% and 42% respectively (depending on countries of the world the reduction of the flow of tourists was within the range of 21-78%). The decrease in the number of tourists which takes place after a terrorist attack is short-lived and usually does not last longer than a year, whereas the consequences of a revolution are noticeable for tourism for a period of 3 to 5 years. According to respondents, the most important consequence of social unrest (protests, demonstrations, terrorist attacks) for tourism is a drop in the number of arrivals of foreign tourists, reduction in the income generated by tourism, decline in employment in tourism and the general slowdown in the development of tourism.
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In January 2020, infections with a novel coronavirus were confirmed in China. Two years into the pandemic, countries continue to struggle with fifth and sixth waves, new virus variants, and varying degrees of success in vaccinating national populations. Travel restrictions continue to persist, and the global tourism industry looks into a third year of uncertainty. There is a consensus that the COVID crisis should be a turning point, to “build back better”, and that a return to pre-pandemic overtourism phenomena is undesirable. Yet, there is very limited evidence that the crisis has changed or will change tourism beyond the micro-scale. In regard to many issues, such as new debt, global tourism has become more vulnerable. Against the background of the climate crisis, the purpose of this paper is to take stock: Which lessons can be learned from the pandemic for global warming? To achieve this, relevant papers are discussed, along with a dissection of the development of the crisis in Germany, as an example of ad hoc crisis management. Findings are interpreted as an analogue to climate change, suggesting that our common interest should be to put every possible effort into mitigation and the avoidance of a > 1.5 °C future. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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Purpose: To investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism, this study analyzed time series data over the period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities. Findings: Utilizing the ARDL model, the result indicates that there is strong negative short and long-run relationship between terrorism and tourism in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The unidirectional causalities from terrorism, per capita GDP, and terrorism intensity towards tourist's receipts have their implication for the country in terms oftourism development. Research limitations/implications: The fact that the number of reviews has been used as a proxy is a limitation and adds a provisional character to our results and encourages the replication of our analysis with data on the effective occupation of the accommodation, to which we did not have access to in our case. Similarly, if possible, other smaller Latin American cities could bestudied. Research implications: In the perspective of policy implementation, the govemment of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh must take quick actions to control terrorism since it is destructive to the tourism industry as well as in light of its negative effect on economic development of a country. Moreover, the govemment should expand the business and employment opportunities notjust in light of the fact that unemployment is harmful to economic growth yet additionally to spare the economy from terrorism as unemployed people can easily become the puppets of terrorist groups by paying them and to feed their families. Originality/value: This study utilized time series data over a period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh) to investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism.
Article
Purpose: To investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism, this study analyzed time series data over the period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities. Findings: Utilizing the ARDL model, the result indicates that there is strong negative short and long-run relationship between terrorism and tourism in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The unidirectional causalities from terrorism, per capita GDP, and terrorism intensity towards tourist's receipts have their implication for the country in terms oftourism development. Research limitations/implications: The fact that the number of reviews has been used as a proxy is a limitation and adds a provisional character to our results and encourages the replication of our analysis with data on the effective occupation of the accommodation, to which we did not have access to in our case. Similarly, if possible, other smaller Latin American cities could be studied. Research implications: In the perspective of policy implementation, the govemment of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh must take quick actions to control terrorism since it is destructive to the tourism industry as well as in light of its negative effect on economic development of a country. Moreover, the govemment should expand the business and employment opportunities not just in light of the fact that unemployment is harmful to economic growth yet additionally to spare the economy from terrorism as unemployed people can easily become the puppets of terrorist groups by paying them and to feed their families. Originality/value: This study utilized time series data over a period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh) to investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism.
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In this article, we use attendance data from La Cité du Vin , a wine museum in the city of Bordeaux, to assess the impact of the recent wave of terror that affected France on wine tourism. We use recent count regression estimation techniques suited for time series data to build a prediction model of the demand for attendance at this museum. We conclude that the institution lost about 5,000 visitors over 426 days, during which 14 successive terrorist attacks took place. This corresponds to almost 1% of the total number of visitors in the sample period. (JEL Classifications: L83, Z30)
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of terrorism on tourism demand in Greece using monthly data from 1977 to 2012. We investigate whether this relationship is bidirectional and whether it exhibits long run persistence. Thus, we employ a large dataset of terrorist incidents and perform cointegration and long-run causality tests, correcting our data for cyclical seasonality and applying PCA to construct a terrorism proxy according to the severity of the incident. Our findings concur that terrorism has a significant negative impact on tourist arrivals to Greece and that causality is noted from terrorism to tourism only. The results suggest that authorities should establish firm measures against terrorism and that further actions should be taken to promote tourism, safety and security, as a response to terrorist incidents. Our study is, to the best our knowledge, the first to approach terrorism using a three-factor proxy with qualitative features.
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The present investigation is a cross-sectional, multi-national, quantitative, and quasi-experimental comparison of tourists' risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a "home-is-safer-then-abroad-bias" with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time.
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We analyze spatial spillover effects in international tourism as a consequence of transnational terrorist attacks. Specifically, we hypothesize that attacks executed in Islamic countries on citizens from Western countries will generate spatial spillovers of three kinds. Firstly, tourism from the victims’ countries to Islamic destination countries other than the location of the attacks will decline. Secondly, tourism from other Western countries to the country in which the attacks took place will decline. Thirdly, tourism from other Western countries to other Islamic destination countries also will decline. These spatial spillover effects occur because the terror message is strategically addressed at Western citizens in general rather than the tourists’ countries of origin per se. Tourists update their priors after such attacks, rationally expecting a greater chance of becoming victimized in other Islamic countries as well, given the transnational character of Islamist terror groups and the limited capacity of governments in Islamic countries to prevent such attacks.
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This essay describes terrorism as a mode of warfare and examines its unique characteristics, by comparing this method of struggle to other forms of violent conflict. It further emphasizes the role of terrorism as a strategy of insurgence and delineates the main strategic ideas by which terrorists have hoped to achieve their political objectives. The study evaluates terrorists’ success in obtaining political goals and the conditions which affect their ability to materialize their objectives.The author concludes that the mode of struggle adopted by insurgents is dictated by circumstances rather than by choice, and that whenever possible, insurgents use concurrently a variety of strategies of struggle. Terrorism, which is the easiest form of insurgency, is practically always one of these modes.
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The hypothesis that political violence deters tourism is mainly based on case study evidence and a few quantitative studies confined to a small sample of countries. Two estimation techniques—a fixed-effects panel estimator with contemporaneous effects only and a dynamic generalized method of moments estimator—are used to test the impact of various forms of political violence on tourism. Both models show strong evidence that human rights violations, conflict, and other politically motivated violent events negatively affect tourist arrivals. In a dynamic model, even if autocratic regimes do not resort to violence, they have lower numbers of tourist arrivals than more democratic regimes. Results also show evidence for intraregional, negative spillover, and cross-regional substitution effects.
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A consumer-choice theoretical model is developed to test the regional effects of terrorism on competitors' market shares in the tourism sector where involved countries enjoy significant tourism activities but are subject to a high frequency of terrorist attacks. Using data for three Mediterranean countries—Greece, Israel, and Turkey—for the period from January 1991 to December 2000, results show significant own and spillover effects of terrorism on market shares. Terrorist incidents are decomposed to better identify the impacts of terrorism on tourism. Significant contagion effects of terrorism on market shares in the region are documented, as is evidence of the effect of terrorism on the substitutability between countries.
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The results of a study conducted on the impact of acts of terrorism on tourism demand in Israel during the period of May 1991 to May 2001 confirmed the hypothesis that the frequency of acts of terrorism had caused a larger decline in international tourist arrivals than the severity of these acts. The implications of this study are that in cases similar to Israel, tourist destinations can recover from even severe acts of terrorism, as long as the terrorist acts are not repeated. However, when acts of terrorism—whether of high or low severity—occur at high frequency and regular intervals, tourism demand will constantly decrease, and eventually the destination’s tourism industry will come to a standstill.
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The aim of the paper is to analyze the causal nexus between tourist arrivals and terrorism. In this paper, unlike other studies, we used the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) prepared by the Institute for Economics & Peace for the determination of terrorism level of a country. For more unbiased and robust estimates, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) method is employed to examine the causal nexus between tourist arrivals and terrorism in thirteen emerging countries cover the period 2006-2016. The results indicated that there is a one-way causality running from terrorism to tourist arrivals. Results suggest that emerging country authorities should increase security precautions to ensure that tourists feel safe and in order to attract more tourists, ceteris paribus.
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This paper examined the relationship among tourism, terrorism and broad economic aggregates. We made use of the impulse response and variance decomposition of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) on the Nigerian economy from 1995Q1 to 2012Q4. Besides the appropriate unit root and cointegration properties of the variables, the result revealed, that terrorism had negative effects on other variables of the study, especially tourism. Also, shocks in other variables are majorly caused by terrorism. The study also revealed that tourism responds positively to FDI, but its response to GDP and FDI are mixed overtime. Therefore, growth-promoting and other complimentary policies that will engender aggregate welfare improvement need to be pursued to ensure that the tourism sector sidestep the adverse consequences of terrorism.
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The aim of this study was to explore the causal relationship between terrorism and international tourism arrivals in several selected European tourist destinations. The main goal is to look at this issue from another perspective, i.e. whether the tourism-led terrorism hypothesis can be proved valid in addition to the already established terrorist-led tourism hypothesis. The study used econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model (VAR model), the analysis of variance decomposition and the impulse response function for the monthly time-series data from 2001 (1) to 2015 (12). Based on the research conducted, it was found that tourism Granger causes terrorism in Turkey, United Kingdom and Germany, while terrorism Granger causes tourism in Italy and Spain.
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We present a theoretical model (adapted from the structural gravity model by Anderson and van Wincoop, American Economic Review, 93, 2003, 170) to capture the effects of terrorism on air passenger traffic between nations affected by terrorism. We then use equations derived from this model, in conjunction with alternative functional forms for trade costs, to estimate the effects of terrorism on bilateral air passenger service flows from 58 source countries to 26 destination countries during 2000–14. An additional small‐scale terrorist incident in the origin country and destination country together results in a reduction in bilateral air passenger travel by, at least, 1.3% and 0.81%, respectively, for pairs of countries located 1,000 and 2,000 km or less apart. The adverse impact of transnational terrorism is approximately five times larger. Terrorism adversely impacts bilateral air passenger travel both by reducing national output and especially by increasing psychological distress. Last but not the least, international air passenger travel is found to be extremely sensitive to fatal terrorist attacks and terrorist attacks on targets such as airports, travel or tourists.
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Security concerns especially from terrorism events and travel warnings against the country presents a challenge to the tourism industry in Kenya. This study applies the Arellano-Bond difference GMM model to analyze the effects of terrorism and travel warning on demand for tourism in Kenya. Quarterly arrivals data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics from 22 source countries covering the period 2010q1 to 2015q4 are used. The study focuses on travel warnings by the UK and US. The results obtained show that terrorism events, represented by fatalities, significantly reduce tourism demand. The adverse effect lasts at least through to the following quarter. Travel warnings also show a negative effect on tourist arrivals in the country. However, the evolution of its effect over time seems to depend on which country issued the warning. For a UK warning, the bulk of the impact comes in the following quarter, while for a US travel warning the negative effect is mainly in the same quarter. The sector appears to recover more quickly from a US travel warning relative to a UK warning.
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While it is established that tourism benefits growth through increased employment and investments, it is not well understood whether tourism has an effect on exports. This paper explores exports as an additional channel through which tourism affects domestic economic activity. Using bilateral tourist and trade flows, the paper explores the causal effect of tourist flows on exports. To deal with endogeneity, two instruments are constructed and subsequently used on two different sets of exporters, one of the instruments being the number of casualties due to terrorism in a country. We find that tourism affects mainly the exports of differentiated products. Specifically, we find that tourism benefits the exports from non-OECD exporters of processed food products and this effect is only estimated for South–North trade with an elasticity close to 1. For European countries, the findings point in the same direction; tourism affects differentiated consumer products and processed food with elasticity close to 1, which adds plausibility to the earlier results. We also find a lagged effect for tourism mainly on the export of consumer goods (for the two samples) and processed food products (for European countries). The results suggest that exporting is an additional channel through which tourism can stimulate domestic economic activity in the tourist destination.
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In this article we investigate the link between fluctuations in tourist arrivals (total, Arabs, Europeans) to Lebanon and terrorism in Lebanon on one hand, and the Syrian civil war on the other hand. This is done by estimating a set of models from the GARCH(1,1) family. Hence, in this article we attempt to model the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly tourist arrivals to Lebanon between January 1995 and December 2014. The results reveal a significant negative marginal effect for terrorism on tourism demand. Moreover, terrorism is found to have a negative impact on the volatility of total international arrivals and Arab arrivals, but a positive impact on the volatility of European arrivals. Hence, terrorism reduces fluctuations in tourist arrivals in the first two cases, but increases fluctuations in the third case. However, terrorism has a transitory effect on the Lebanese tourism sector while the Syrian civil war has a permanent effect. In fact, during the Syrian civil war the volatility of the Lebanese tourism demand decreased.
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The present study examines the impact of physical economic development proxied by road density, air transport facilities, tourism infrastructure measured in terms of availability of hotels, and crime activities on the arrival of foreign visitors, domestic visitors, and revenue receipts from tourism in 25 Indian states using a state-level panel data covering the period 1995–2011. The empirical estimate reveals that economic development, world heritage sites and availability of hotels significantly increase inflow of foreign and domestic visitors in Indian states. However, crime activities adversely affect the inflow of foreign and domestic tourists in short run, while major terror attacks do not significantly impact tourist arrivals. Finally, the estimates from IV-Tobit model show that road density, availability of land check post facility and government expenditure on the tourism industry leads to a significant increase in tourism receipts.
Article
The paper applies dynamic panel modeling to investigate the impact of terrorism and travel advice on global tourism. Annual arrivals data for 49 destinations and 15 leading countries of origin for the period 2010–2014 are used. Results indicate that casualties or fatalities from terrorism, absent travel advice, significantly reduce tourism demand. However, casualties (fatalities) combined with travel advice have a relatively larger adverse impact on tourism demand. The effects identified, however, are sensitive to country characteristics. Casualties (fatalities) as well as travel advice significantly weaken tourism demand for low-income countries but have no significant effect in high-income countries.
Article
Purpose The present study empirically examines the determinants of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals and revenue receipts from tourism using state-level panel data in 25 Indian states for the period 1995 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach The study employs IV-2SLS method to examine the determinants of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals in Indian states. Economic development (proxied by Per Capita Income, PCI) is an endogenous variable. We have used the state-wise ‘liable to flood prone area’ as an instrument for PCI to control for endogeneity. An inverse relationship exists between state-wise ‘liable to flood prone area’ and real PCI in a sense that states with greater proportion of area marked as liable to flood, experience lower economic development. For robust analysis, the study has also employed IV-Tobit model in order to examine the effects of economic development and crime on revenue receipts from tourism. Findings The empirical results based on IV-2SLS method suggest that in addition to economic development, other factors such as the presence of world class monuments, natural landscapes and cultural heritage also encourage both international and domestic visitors in Indian states. While crime activities adversely affect the inflow of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals, terror activities do not significantly impact tourist arrivals and tourism receipts. Finally, the estimates of IV-Tobit model show that economic development and government expenditure on tourism sector leads to a significant increase in tourism receipts. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study done in Indian context in which state-level panel data has been used to examine the impact of economic, social and cultural factors on tourist arrivals and revenue earnings from tourism. Hence, the present study not only contributes to existing tourism literature but also makes an important contribution to structuring suitable tourism management policies for the Indian states.
Article
This article investigated the tourism–terrorism nexus in Nigeria using quarterly time series data within a vector autoregression analytical framework. Unlike extant studies, we gauge the influence of terrorism shocks on the tourism sector specifically on the one hand and broadly the response of some key macroeconomic variables on the other hand. Several interesting results ensued. To sum up these findings, we found a negative response of tourism revenues to terrorist incidents over the long haul as well as adverse effects on other key macroeconomic variables. Therefore, government policies to revamp the ailing economy should be complemented with well-tailored counter-terrorism approaches for effectiveness.
Article
While the relation between terrorism and tourism has been an important topic for tourism research, the questions whether terrorism affects tourism immediately and how long after a terrorism event tourism recovers are, as yet, not clearly answered. The aim of this article is to better understand the magnitude and temporal scale of the impact of terrorism on tourism. To this end, a research model differentiating between short-term and long-term effects of terrorism on tourism is developed and analyzed for the destination Israel using data on tourists from Germany. The results show both short-term and long-term impacts with a time lag between the terrorist event and the beginning of tourism decline of 1 or up to 6 months. An economic influence on the development of tourist arrivals was not detected, but seasonality plays an important role in the relationship between terrorism and tourism.
Article
Personal security is a major concern for tourists. Most tourists will seek safe and secure destinations and avoid those that have been plagued by terrorism. This research quantifies the relationship between terrorism and tourism in 95 different countries and territories using international tourism demand models. After controlling for income, we find there is no long run effect of terrorism on international tourism demand and the short run effect is quite limited from a global perspective using panel data models. Only nine countries out of the 95 show a long run impact of terrorism on tourism and 25 countries out of the 95 show a short run impact using time series models, implying that international tourism is resilient to terrorism. The influence of terrorism is diverse in destinations with different political instability, income levels and tourism intensities.
Article
Turkey is one of the most advanced economies in the MENA region and one of the most important tourist destinations in the world, but with a long lasting history of terrorism that has significantly increased during the last years after the Syrian Civil War. This paper uses an updated sample of quarterly data on GDP, inbound tourism and terrorism to explore the relationship between tourism and economic growth adding information on terrorist activity. Different specifications of cointegrating regressions are used to quantify the impact of terrorism on the relationship between tourism demand and economic growth, including the novelty approach of a threshold cointegrating regression, where the stationary transition variable is given by a standard measure of terrorist activity. Results show that, with a delay between three to six months, and even for a relatively small number of estimated terrorist attacks, there is a negative impact of terrorism on real GDP of around 10% through a reduction of the contribution of tourism demand on economic growth.
Article
Studies focusing on the relationship between transnational terrorism and tourism examine the effect of terror on tourism, while this study looks at a different question: does international tourism affect transnational terrorism? We hypothesized that the higher the number of international tourist arrivals to a country, the higher the number of terror attacks, and examined this effect from four distinct aspects: perpetration by foreign attackers against local victims, perpetration by local attackers against foreign victims, perpetration by foreign attackers against foreign victims, and perpetration of terror attacks against foreign private parties. We conclude that there is an inverse U relationship between number of arrivals and number of attacks perpetrated by foreigners, and also a robust significant relationship between number of arrivals to a country and terror attacks in which both the attacker and the victim are foreigners. However, it is not unequivocal whether this is a positive linear or an inverse U relationship.
Article
This paper uses dynamic panel model to compare the effect of terrorism on developed and emerging country demand for tourism in Kenya. Quarterly data spanning 2010Q1 to 2013Q4, sourced from the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics, for 27 developed and 34 emerging countries is used. Intensity of terror attack measured by fatalities significantly reduces tourist arrivals from developed countries but not from emerging countries. A 1% increase in fatality reduces arrivals from developed countries by 0.082%. This translates to 2487 visitors per year, or roughly 155.8 million Kenya shillings lost annually from an increase of one fatality per quarter.
Article
Fear appeals are a polarizing issue, with proponents confident in their efficacy and opponents confident that they backfire. We present the results of a comprehensive meta-analysis investigating fear appeals' effectiveness for influencing attitudes, intentions, and behaviors. We tested predictions from a large number of theories, the majority of which have never been tested meta-analytically until now. Studies were included if they contained a treatment group exposed to a fear appeal, a valid comparison group, a manipulation of depicted fear, a measure of attitudes, intentions, or behaviors concerning the targeted risk or recommended solution, and adequate statistics to calculate effect sizes. The meta-analysis included 127 articles (9% unpublished) yielding 248 independent samples (NTotal = 27,372) collected from diverse populations. Results showed a positive effect of fear appeals on attitudes, intentions, and behaviors, with the average effect on a composite index being random-effects d = 0.29. Moderation analyses based on prominent fear appeal theories showed that the effectiveness of fear appeals increased when the message included efficacy statements, depicted high susceptibility and severity, recommended one-time only (vs. repeated) behaviors, and targeted audiences that included a larger percentage of female message recipients. Overall, we conclude that (a) fear appeals are effective at positively influencing attitude, intentions, and behaviors; (b) there are very few circumstances under which they are not effective; and (c) there are no identified circumstances under which they backfire and lead to undesirable outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record
Article
The symbiotic relationship between terrorism and tourism needs to be understood and acted on, not just in terms of security and marketing, but in terms of such factors as planning, site development, employment policies, political risk analysis and emergency management. This article looks at the relationship between tourism and terrorism from several perspectives. The political and economic impact of terrorism on tourism is assessed, including the sensitivity of the tourism industry to general political strife and the vulnerability of travellers and tourist facilities to terroristic activity. The nature of terroristic violence and the objectives of terrorist groups are evaluated to determine why and how attacks on tourists and facilities may fit the organizational and political objectives of terrorist groups. Finally, the article suggests how the industry and policy makers must proceed to reduce the vulnerability for tourists and the travel sector.
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the direction of the causality between tourism development and economic growth in Lebanon between 1995 and 2013, after taking into consideration terrorist incidents and their intensities. These are considered as exogenous shocks that affect tourism development and economic growth instantaneously and with a lag. Design/methodology/approach – To reach the objectives, the authors estimate a vector auto regressive model with exogenous variables, applying a series of unit root tests with and without structural breaks and the Granger causality test. Findings – The findings suggest a positive unidirectional causality running from tourism development to economic growth in the short run. Thus, the authors find evidence for the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in Lebanon despite the exposure of the country to frequent terrorist incidents. The impulse response functions reveal that tourism development (economic growth) responds positively to a positive shock to economic growth (tourism development). Practical implications – The findings call for Lebanese policy makers aiming at promoting growth to design policies that encourage tourism, such as implementing tourism marketing policies and building the needed tourism infrastructure. Such policies will have positive but transitory effects on economic growth. The findings may also be useful for regional representatives of intergovernmental organizations and the offices of statistics of United Nations World Tourism Organization and the World Bank to better understand the tourism industry in Lebanon and similar countries suffering from instabilities. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the existing literature in three points: despite the importance of the tourism industry to the Lebanese economy, this topic did not receive careful attention in the literature; it takes into consideration the presence of structural breaks and possible nonlinearities in the number of tourist arrivals; and it investigates the TLGH after accounting for instability in the country.
Book
International Security Studies (ISS) has changed and diversified in many ways since 1945. This book provides the first intellectual history of the development of the subject in that period. It explains how ISS evolved from an initial concern with the strategic consequences of superpower rivalry and nuclear weapons, to its current diversity in which environmental, economic, human and other securities sit alongside military security, and in which approaches ranging from traditional Realist analysis to Feminism and Post-colonialism are in play. It sets out the driving forces that shaped debates in ISS, shows what makes ISS a single conversation across its diversity, and gives an authoritative account of debates on all the main topics within ISS. This is an unparalleled survey of the literature and institutions of ISS that will be an invaluable guide for all students and scholars of ISS, whether traditionalist, 'new agenda' or critical.
Article
In late 2011, the Spanish terrorist organization ETA announced the end of armed violence after more than forty years of illegal activity. While the existing literature has already established the negative impact of terrorist actions on international tourism in a particular region, this paper aims to determine whether ETA’s final ceasefire and definitive dissolution had a positive impact on domestic tourism in Basque Country. To that end, a directed gravity model is estimated over a panel data-set of 699 domestic tourist flows between the Spanish regions from 2008 to 2013. Results suggest that the negative impact on visitor flows was localized in the Basque Country. Also, regardless of a permanent ceasefire announced in 2010, only the 2011 ‘definitive cessation of violence’ had an immediate significant impact on the number of visitors to the Basque Country. These results complement the scarce literature on post-conflict tourism analysis and may have implications for regional authorities in affected regions in their efforts to rebuild their destination brands.
Article
This paper uses a dynamic panel data model to analyse the effects of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya. We use annual data from 2010 to 2013 for a widely dispersed set of 124 countries of origin covering Europe, Asia, the Americas and Africa. The result suggests that a one per cent increase in fatalities significantly reduces tourist arrivals by about 0.13 per cent. This translates to a reduction of about 2,507.5 visitors per year and roughly 157.1 million Kenya Shillings lost in tourism revenue per year for every one unit increase in fatality. Other proxies for terrorism, such as incidence or casualties, have a similar effect, indicating the robustness of the results. On the other hand, previous visits have a strong and positive effect on the level of current arrivals.
Article
This article evaluates the effects of political instability, terrorism, and corruption on tourism development, particularly UNESCO-listed heritage destinations. Using a fixed-effects panel data analysis for 139 countries over the period 1999–2009, the result reveals that a one-unit increase in political instability decreases tourist arrivals and tourism revenue between 24% and 31% and 30% and 36%, respectively. Furthermore, in the presence of heritage, terrorism has negative effects on tourism demand even though its effect is lower than that of political instability. However, the study shows that an increase in corruption index would not have an adverse influence on tourist arrival numbers, particularly for those countries that have historical and natural heritage. Perhaps, many experienced travelers have expectations that they would require paying bribes to corrupt authorities for travel visa or permits to some tourist destinations in order to make things accessible. Moderation effect results indicate that political instability reduces tourism demand even in UNESCO-listed heritage destinations.
Article
Over 10 years have passed since the first paper on the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) was published in 2002. Since then, a wave of studies has appeared trying to understand the temporal relationship between tourism and economic growth. Hence, it is possible to provide an assessment in terms of econometric methods used and main empirical findings achieved so far. This paper presents an exhaustive review of approximately 100 peer-reviewed published papers on the TLGH. An overview on the economic theoretical framework behind the TLGH is also provided. Notably, the results present an increasing diversification in the econometric modelling used. With a few exceptions, the empirical findings suggest that overall international tourism drives economic growth.
Article
Looking at the current political turmoil across the globe, this study aims to analyze the effects of interaction between political instability and terrorism on tourism development using panel data from 139 countries for the period 1999-2009. The study measures the extent to which a country's political conflicts and terrorism can negatively impact its tourism industry. The results reveal that the effect of political instability on tourism is far more severe than the effects of one-off terrorist attacks. Surprisingly, the findings suggest that terrorist attacks increase tourism demand for those low- to moderate-political-risk countries. However, countries that experience high levels of political risk witness significant reductions in their tourism businesses. In addition, political volatility and terrorism together can cause serious damage to the tourism industry.
Article
Important tourist locations and gateways in India have suffered recurrent terrorist attacks. However, a quantitative analysis of the impact of such incidents on Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in the country is lacking. This paper explores the effects of terror incidents in India on FTAs and the durability of such impacts using econometric tools of analysis. It is expected that the findings will be helpful for policy-makers to understand to what extent the campaigns launched by them in the aftermath of terror strikes succeed in restoring the confidence of the potential tourists and thereby in winning them back to travel to India.
Article
Acts of terror are intended to incite fear and intimidation, which makes tourism particularly susceptible to attacks. Because the hospitality industry serves as a useful barometer of the indirect impact of attacks, we examine the impact of terrorist incidents on lodging-use rates in Italy between 1995 and 1997. We make use of data on domestic as well as international terrorism at the city level to explore more localized implications of terrorist incidents. We find that lodgings used by foreign visitors are the most sensitive to terrorist attacks and that the incidents have the largest impact during the year of the attack.
Article
International tourism demand and its determinants have been the subjects of numerous studies over the past three decades. Previous reviews of this body of research have identified only a small number of these studies. In contrast, this survey has attempted a comprehensive review of the literature. In this article, the first in a three-part series, similarities and dissimilarities in approach are discussed as a guide to researchers wishing to conduct similar studies.
Article
On Tuesday morning, September 11, 2001, 19 suicide hijackers took control of four United States commercial airplanes and crashed them, respectively, into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center (WTC) in New York City, the Pentagon in Washington, DC, and in a field in Somerset County, west of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An estimated 5000–6000 people were killed. The cost of the tragedy, in terms of rebuilding, is estimated at about $105 billion (CNN Television News Report, October 5, 2001). The tourism industry in America was severely affected, with immediate declines in airline passenger loads of 50% and more, and similar declines in hotel occupancy.This article describes the impacts of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the travel and tourism industry in the USA. It is compiled from the wealth of secondary data published in the print media, news reports on major television networks in the USA (e.g., ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN), and informal discussions with 50 Executive MBA students and 21 faculty members at a university in the southeastern part of the USA. It is divided into six parts: (1) background: sequence of events; (2) impacts on the travel and tourism industry; (3) managerial implications; (4) future research; (5) limitation; and (6) summary and conclusion.