Article

Mutiny in Africa, 1950–2018

Authors:
  • University of Central Florida & Chr. Michelsen Institute
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Abstract

The majority of literature on civil–military relations has focused on coups d’état. Yet, studying lesser forms of military insubordination can offer valuable insight into the true condition of states’ civil–military relations. This paper introduces a data collection effort on mutinies across Africa from 1950 to 2018, revealing several interesting trends. First, most African countries have experienced mutinies, with these events increasing in frequency in the post-Cold War period. Second, while mutinies rarely escalate into coups, they are associated with an increased likelihood of coups in the future. This dataset provides a useful tool to explore the complexity of states’ civil–military relations.

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Article
The composition of the armed forces is, by now, well established as a major factor determining the risk of coups d’état. However, military discontent not only manifests in the form of coups but also as mutinies. This latter form of troop rebellion has received little empirical attention. We examine how the practice of recruiting foreigners into the armed forces affects the likelihood of such events and develop two arguments regarding a direct and a moderating effect of legionnaires on mutiny risk. First, we contend that the recruitment of legionnaires is likely to cause material-based grievances, hence be perceived as detrimental to the corporate interests, wages, and promotion prospects of the rank-and-file, and thus troops will oppose the introduction of such recruitment policies. We hence expect the onset of legionnaire recruitment policies to be associated with an increased risk of mutinies. However, once such policies are in place, the presence of legionnaires can mitigate the effects of other mutiny drivers as foreign recruits impede local soldiers’ task-related grievances and thus incentives to mutiny in reaction to them. Using global data over the period 1948–2015, we find empirical support for the expectations derived from both arguments.
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The article analyses the market of security services in Africa also examining the position which Russia holds in the current structure of supply and demand. Thus, a key goal is to determine the most promising directions within which Russian influence in terms of security provision can be widened. For this particular reason, the authors focus on supply and demand in the market of security services in Africa. In other words, the article consistently examines the main security challenges faced by regional governments and, at the same time, Russia’s successful experience in the security provision in Africa. In order to provide for the structural examination of customers’ preferences the authors highlight six groups of African states. Such a classification is based on the specific features, the severeness and the number of threats faced by the government and allows to study demand characteristics in details. At the same time the analysis of the Russian approach to cooperation with African states illustrates both advantages and disadvantages of the security services provided by Moscow. Suchwise, the key factors which predetermine the Kremlin’s attractiveness as a security provider are the adherence to the three-noes concept, including non-interference in the internal affairs of security partners, readiness to find compromises and to adopt a realistic approach to goal-setting. Russia’s successful experience in combatting rebels as well as the export of weapons are two components that also play an important role in the strategy adopted by Moscow. However current prospects are limited by the foreign pressure put on Russian allies in the region. As a result, the most promising direction to expand Russian influence in Africa in terms of security provision relates to the cooperation with the states that face a crisis affecting all the spheres of social life and that suffer from neo-colonial policies of former colonial powers. Moreover, it seems essential to develop forms and tools of military assistance for African security forces.
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Civil-military relations and terrorism are both extensively studied subjects. Their relationship has, however, yet to be examined. We maintain that public conflict between the civilian and the military leadership in a country and declining civil control over the armed forces may often precipitate a rise in domestic terror events. Civil-military conflict and reduced civilian control can lead to agency slack by the armed forces and ineffective counterterror policies. These phenomena are also associated with policies that exclude groups in society and generate grievances, leading some to turn to terror. In zero inflated negative binomial analyses of domestic terror events and two distinct indicators of civil-military tension, we find support for our contention. Terror incidents increase both when civil-military conflict rises and when civilian control decreases. Our results add to understanding of both the domestic consequences of civil-military tension and the types of influences that impact domestic terror.
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Military mutinies are critical to scholars’ collective understanding of civil–military relations. This article introduces a new dataset that systematically codes mutinies across all regions and conducts an exploratory analysis of these new data. The primary contribution made here is the introduction of a new dataset that provides scholars with a sample of mutinies across region, space, and time. The new Military Mutinies and Defections Database (MMDD) codes events of military indiscipline from 1945 to 2017. This dataset uses geocoding techniques that will enable scholars to explore the spatial patterns and diffusion associated with mutinies. The second contribution is the preliminary exploration of these new data. Of note, I demonstrate that over one-third of all mutinies are violent, 6% of mutinies are associated with civilian deaths, and anocracies are more likely to experience mutinies than democratic or autocratic counterparts. MMDD provides investigators with an exciting new tool to explore dimensions of military disloyalty.
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The transfer of power through the use of military force is a commonplace event in world affairs. Although no two coups d'etat are alike, they all have a common denominator: poverty. We analyze political and economic data from 121 countries during the period 1950–1982 and find that the probability of a government's being overthrown by a coup is significantly influenced by the level of economic well-being. Thus, even authoritarian governments have powerful incentives to promote economic growth, not out of concern for the welfare of their citizens, but because poor economic performance may lead to their removal by force. When the simultaneity of low income and coups is accounted for, we find that the aftereffects of a coup include a heritage of political instability in the form of an increased likelihood of further coups. Although the effect of income on coups is pronounced, we find little evidence of feedback from coups to income growth.
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Since 1990, Côte d’Ivoire has experienced over a dozen army mutinies, with three major events occurring in the first half of 2017. This paper explores the underlying causes of these events, considering both this year’s mutinies and the state’s prior experiences with military insubordination. A review of the events of Côte d’Ivoire’s tumultuous 2017 indicates a number of parallels with some of its earlier mutinies, though these more recent events are perhaps unique due to the presence of a larger range of dynamics and the scale of the mutineers’ demands. Beyond requests for better pay, which are nearly ubiquitous, these events also illustrate the general hazards of post-conflict civil–military relations, including challenges related to demobilisation, integration of rebel forces, the consequences of soldiers having contributed to a leader’s ascendance, and the perils of soldier loyalties lying with personalities instead of the state. © 2017, GIGA German Institute for Global and Area Studies. All rights reserved.
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Between 1952 and 2012, there were a total of 88 successful military coups in Africa. Of those, 63 occurred prior to 1990, and 10 cases since the adoption, by the defunct Organization of African Unity (OAU), of the Lomé Declaration in July 2000, banning military coups and adopting sanctions against regimes born out of this. The article shows that the African Union (AU) has followed in the footsteps of the OAU in this regard. Assisted by some African regional organisations and international partners, the combined effect of this policy of the AU – assisted by other factors – has been a significant reduction in the occurrence of this phenomenon. While not constituting a funeral arrangement for military coups in the immediate future, these developments – if they were to continue – may indeed make this eventuality achievable in the long run. But the article also reveals some challenges the AU is facing in ensuring this.
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We describe the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD), a new event dataset for conducting research and analysis on various forms of social and political unrest in Africa. SCAD contains information on over 7,200 instances of protests, riots, strikes, government repression, communal violence, and other forms of unrest for 47 African countries from 1990–2010. SCAD includes information on event dates, actors and targets, lethality, georeferenced location information, and other conflict attributes. This article gives an overview of the data collection process, presents descriptive statistics and trends across the continent, and compares SCAD to the widely used Banks event data. We believe that SCAD will be a useful resource for scholars across multiple disciplines as well as for the policy community.
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The act of mutiny has always been amenable to broad interpretation, embracing both active and passive insubordination undertaken with or without arms. By threatening the military's control, mutiny poses a danger to the concept of the nation itself. This article explores the various permutations of mutiny through etymology of the word 'mutiny' since 16th century France, as well as the social conditions and legal remedies that have been applied to it. The author concludes that mutiny may become more likely since society and the armed forces are more collectivised in terms of unions and professional groupings set apart from the institutional basis for service.
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Journal of Democracy 12.3 (2001) 63-72 Côte d'Ivoire, long one of Africa's most stable and prosperous countries, experienced the first military coup d'étatin its history on 24 December 1999. The political instability that triggered the coup and the fraudulent elections that followed were foreseeable consequences of the poor leadership of the ousted president, Henri Konan Bédié. Although the junta leader General Robert Gueï and his cabinet successfully organized a referendum on 23 July 2000 leading to approval of a new constitution and the establishment of the Second Republic, they failed in preparing free and fair presidential elections. Through exclusionary tactics and juridical manipulation, Gueï effectively disqualified the most popular candidates -- Alassane Dramane Ouattara of the Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR) and Emile Constant Bombet of the Parti Démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI)--making way for his own run for the presidency. The list of candidates included Laurent Gbagbo of the Front Populaire Ivoirien(FPI), who had become a close collaborator with General Gueï, and three other candidates of little importance. The presidential balloting of 22 October 2000 was a sham. The PDCI and the RDR boycotted the elections. Before the results were tabulated, Gueï suspended the electoral commission and claimed victory. Gbagbo, in response, rapidly proclaimed himself president of the republic and called his party militants into the street to show support for his electoral coup; RDR and PDCI supporters joined the FPI militants in the streets, not to support Gbagbo but to defend their right to free and fair elections. They chased Gueï into exile on October 25. Despite the exclusion of other candidates and the low voter turnout of 37 percent (compared to 54 percent for the referendum), Gbagbo held his ground. The electoral commission later confirmed his victory with 59.4 percent of votes cast to Gueï's 32.3 percent. Gbagbo, upon his installation, launched another round of political repression by security forces. The legislative elections of December 10 repeated the debacle of the presidential balloting. Only the municipal elections of 25 March 2001 have given Ivoirians and international observers some hope that democracy may be salvageable in Côte d'Ivoire. Since Côte d'Ivoire's transition to multiparty democracy in 1990, the electoral process has opened a Pandora's box of rampant fear and greed among powerful Ivoirian politicos. This West African nation of nearly 16 million inhabitants, formerly a leading producer of coffee and cocoa, is in decline and spiraling toward economic ruin. Abidjan, the "Pearl of the Lagune" and the commercial capital of Côte d'Ivoire, no longer beckons seductively to the international business and finance community, as it had during 30 years of strong-armed leadership by Félix Houphouët-Boigny. Many PDCI barons who served under the one-party regime that he founded have organized opposition parties -- a process that began a few years before his death in 1993. They are competing for ethnic loyalties, power, and authority, while leaving a path of death and destruction in their wake. Houphouët's carefully crafted ethnic balancing act has been dismantled, leaving primordial ethnic linkages up for grabs and disturbing fragile alliances among the urban middle class, as each group battles to protect the positions and advantages it gained during the First Republic. The latest round of elections has revealed profound weaknesses in the capacity of the leadership to prevent violence and guarantee the rights of citizens while these disparate groups defend their turf. Their actions have analysts wondering whether Côte d'Ivoire can avoid the fate of its less fortunate neighbors to the west, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Only the determination of the international financial community to restrict donor funds when conditions allowing wanton violations of human rights, killings, and insecurity went unchecked seems to have forced the leadership to reconsider its role and its responsibilities to the state. To understand the roots of the political crisis in Côte d'Ivoire, one must examine the effect of historical and ethnographic forces on politics. The ethnic factor remains a divisive and disturbing theme in the country's internal...
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▪ Abstract Who will guard the guardians? Political scientists since Plato have sought to answer this, the central question of the civil-military relations subfield. Although civil-military relations is a very broad subject, encompassing the entire range of relationships between the military and civilian society at every level, the field largely focuses on the control or direction of the military by the highest civilian authorities in nation-states. This essay surveys political science's contribution to our understanding of civil-military relations, providing a rough taxonomy for cataloguing the field and discussing the recent renaissance in the literature as well as fruitful avenues for future research. The essay focuses on theoretical developments, slighting (for reasons of space) the many case studies and empirical treatments that have also made important contributions to our knowledge.
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This article presents ACLED, an Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset. ACLED codes the actions of rebels, governments, and militias within unstable states, specifying the exact location and date of battle events, transfers of military control, headquarter establishment, civilian violence, and rioting. In the current version, the dataset covers 50 unstable countries from 1997 through 2010. ACLED's disaggregation of civil war and transnational violent events allow for research on local level factors and the dynamics of civil and communal conflict. Findings from subnational conflict research challenges conclusions from larger national-level studies. In a brief descriptive analysis, the authors find that, on average, conflict covers 15% of a state's territory, but almost half of a state can be directly affected by internal wars.
The Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance Dataset (REIGN)
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Madagascar; Troops mutiny ahead of political summit
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Schiel R, Faulkner C, and Powell J (2017) Mutiny in Côte d'Ivoire. Africa Spectrum 52 (2):103-115.