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Assessing future use of autonomous, shared and electric vehicle technologies to meet decarbonisation goals: a case study in Lisbon

Authors:
  • ISEG – Lisboa School of Economics & Management

Abstract and Figures

Decarbonisation policy goals are expected to drive significant changes in transport and urban mobility markets. However, future city trajectories that could enable multiple societal benefits from low carbon and zero-emissions solutions in a cost-efficient way are still uncertain. To the best of our knowledge, the research reported in this paper represents the first attempt to assess trends in the use of disruptive passenger urban transport solutions in Lisbon, while providing insights on the mechanisms by which stakeholders (public transport operators, new mobility providers such as car-sharing, infrastructure managers, etc.) management activities are open to change, cooperation and can foster strategic innovation towards decarbonizing mobility pathways. The pilot study supported by the Lisbon City Council comprised the former application of the "Benefits Realization Management" approach in the context of urban passenger mobility. Semi-structured surveys were implemented to a multimodal network of stakeholders. Finally, the "Benefits Dependency Roadmap" were derived as a strategic planning tool.
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Proceedings of 8th Transport Research Arena TRA 2020, April 27-30, 2020, Helsinki, Finland
Assessing future use of autonomous, shared and electric vehicle
technologies to meet decarbonisation goals: a case study in Lisbon
Elisabete Arsenioa
*
, Mário Romãob , Jorge Gomesb , José Pratab
aLNEC, Av. do Brasil 101, 1700-066 Lisboa, Portugal
bISEG Lisbon School of Economics & Management, Rua do Quelhas nº. 6, 1200-781 Lisboa, Portugal
Abstract
Decarbonisation policy goals are expected to drive significant changes in transport and urban mobility markets.
However, future city trajectories that could enable multiple societal benefits from low carbon and zero-emissions
solutions in a cost-efficient way are still uncertain. To the best of our knowledge, the research reported in this
paper represents the first attempt to assess trends in the use of disruptive passenger urban transport solutions in
Lisbon, while providing insights on the mechanisms by which stakeholders (public transport operators, new
mobility providers such as car-sharing, infrastructure managers, etc.) management activities are open to change,
cooperation and can foster strategic innovation towards decarbonizing mobility pathways. The pilot study
supported by the Lisbon City Council comprised the former application of the “Benefits Realization Management”
approach in the context of urban passenger mobility. Semi-structured surveys were implemented to a multimodal
network of stakeholders. Finally, the “Benefits Dependency Roadmap” were derived as a strategic planning tool.
Keywords: Transport decarbonisation; disruptive mobility; benefits management; shared mobility; electric
mobility; autonomous vehicles.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +351-21-8443326
E-mail address: earsenio@lnec.pt
Arsenio, E. et al. / TRA2020, Helsinki, Finland, April 27-30, 2020
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1.1.1. Nomenclature
BM Benefits Management or Benefits Realization Management
BDR Benefits Dependence Roadmap or Benefits Dependence Network
LMA Lisbon Metropolitan Area
GHG Greenhouse Gas Emissions
V2G Vehicle-to-Grid
2. Introduction: policy context and objetives
Considering the European Commission’s High-Level Panel of the European Decarbonisation Pathways Initiative,
transport services within the EU-28 Member States are responsible for 26% of the total domestic CO2 emissions,
being road transport responsible for 82% of those emissions in 2015 (EC, 2018). As previously set by the European
Commission’s White Paper (EC, 2011a), greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from transport are expected to be
reduced by 20% and 70%, respectively until 2030 and 2050 (with respect to 2008 levels). Moreover, conventional
vehicles are to be banned from cities until 2050. The “European Strategy for Low-emission Mobility” has among
its main elements increasing the efficiency of transport, accelerate the deployment of low-emission alternative
energy for transport and move towards zero-emissions vehicles (EC, 2016). At the 2016 United Nations Climate
Change Conference (twenty-second Conference of the Parties, COP 22) in Marrakech, the Portuguese Government
committed internationally to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Roadmap for Portugal
(RNC 2050) envisaging a long-term strategy for carbon neutrality of the Portuguese economy was developed and
approved through the Resolution of the Council of Ministers N.107/2019 of 1st July (MEET, 2019). In Portugal,
the transport sector continues to be among those with the highest energy consumption and a major source of GHG
emissions (responsible for 24,3% of the country emissions), being the third most energy-intensive sector (APA,
2019).
Given the above context, decarbonisation goals entail significant challenges to the transport and urban mobility
and related stakeholders across European cities. The entry of new players in the market as providers of low carbon
and zero-emission mobility services will require new business models and enhanced mobility management tools
able to maximize the expected benefits (and minimize costs) for the whole ecosystem of actors (public and private
transport operators, providers of new mobility services, new mobility providers such as car-sharing, infrastructure
managers, etc.). Although there exists several decarbonisation roadmaps at the European and regional level
developed by several international institutions, European funded projects, etc. (EC, 2018), future city trajectories
that could enable multiple societal benefits from disruptive mobility forms in a cost-efficient way are still
uncertain. The research reported in this paper aims to contribute to fill this gap and add knowledge in the context
of Lisbon city stakeholders’ strategies and plans towards mobility decarbonisation. Overall, research outcomes are
useful to move towards an inclusive and just transition pathway towards sustainable and multimodal mobility in
Lisbon.
The research reported in this article is built on the project “Trends in the use of disruptive urban transport solutions:
the case of passenger transport” of the ISEG Lisbon School of Economics & Management and LNEC, which
comprised a pilot study supported by the Lisbon City Council, through its Mobility Cabinet and its public bus
operator CARRIS. The research questions underlying the project can be described as follows:
Which are the main trends in urban passenger transport as representing use of disruptive technological
solutions to meet decarbonisation goals?
Considering the emerging mobility trends and the city of Lisbon and stakeholders’ strategies, which are
the solutions/measures attached to the highest impact on mobility decarbonisation?
If we apply the “Benefits Realization Management” approach to the multimodal network of stakeholders,
will the transformational roadmap serve to identify the required organization changes and pathways to
realize the identified benefits (pilot study)?
To the best of our knowledge, the research reported in this paper represents the first pilot study in the context of
the Lisbon city to assess trends in the use of disruptive passenger urban transport solutions, while providing
insights into the mechanisms by which stakeholders (multimodal) are open to change, cooperation and are able to
Arsenio, E. et al. / TRA2020, Helsinki, Finland, April 27-30, 2020
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foster strategic innovation towards decarbonizing mobility pathways to maximize their expected benefits and
overcome barriers. One important outcome of the research is to derive the “Benefits Dependency Roadmap”
(BDR) for the city and its stakeholders by pilot testing the “Benefits Management” approach (Ward & Daniel
2012; Gomes and Romão, 2018) within the city of Lisbon urban mobility stakeholders’ context. This tool is
expected to support policy strategies and the implementation of solutions/measures towards reaching business
value for stakeholders, explore synergic effects between planned actions for reaching carbon neutrality and other
desired societal benefits in the long term.
3. Theorethical framework
One of the novel features of the research reported in this article is that it represents the former application of the
Benefits Management (BM) approach in the context of the Lisbon mobility ecosystem of stakeholders to achieve
the realization of expected benefits linked to decarbonisation. Indeed, BM has already been applied mostly in the
context of information systems and technology projects and has received increasing attention in recent years, from
professionals, consultants and academy (Thorp, 2007; Jenner, 2009; Bradley, 2010; Pina et al., 2011; Breese, 2012;
Caldeira et al., 2012; Ashurst, 2012; Gomes et al., 2013; Doherty, 2014; Breese et al., 2015; Coombs, 2015; Gomes
& Romão, 2016; Madeira et al., 2017; Gomes & Romão, 2018). More recently, Keeys and Huemann (2017)
showed the importance of sustainable development as a strategy to generate stakeholders’ benefits. In the applied
context of Information Systems/Information Technologies (IS/IT), BM is defined as “the process of organizing
and managing such that the potential benefits arising from the use of IS/IT are actually realized” (Ward & Daniel
2012). Simply stated, BM can be understood as a set of sequential steps to guide the planning and implementation
of projects, such that the potential benefits from those projects are effectively realized. In this process, required
changes need to be clearly identified tracked and managed for their successful conversion in effective benefits
(Peppard et al., 2007). The same authors prescribe the construction of a benefits realization plan, which requires a
stakeholder’s brainstorm to gather answers to the following main questions: Why and what business or operational
improvements are necessary or possible? What benefits and changes will be realized for each affected stakeholder?
Who will be responsible, and how can we verify that the changes and benefits have been achieved?
Figure 1a represents the five stages of the BM model adapted from Ward & Daniel (2012). After identifying the
policy/business drivers, the investment objectives, and the derived benefits, it follows the identification of the
changes that need to be carried out in the form of individuals or groups, which is an integral part of achieving the
new capabilities and benefits. In the BDR each benefit is individually mapped in order to provide a dependency
link for each of the changes that cause its achievement. BDR works in backwards from the objectives the ends,
to the proposed solutions the means (Fig. 1b). This ensures that investments are driven by policy and/or business
demands. Briefly, the main elements of BDR are the following: drivers represent opportunities or concerns driven
from external or internal environments, capturing important ‘signs’ for the business; investment objectives are a
small number of statements that define the focus of the projects and how they link to drivers; business benefits are
advantages to a specific stakeholder or groups of stakeholders; business changes represent process changes
required in the business in order to generate benefits; enabling changes are required one-off changes that facilitate
business changes to occur; with IS/IT enablers, technology plays its role, facilitating changes of the on-going
processes and, ultimately, the achievement of business benefits.
a b
Fig. 1 (a) BM stages and its activities; (b) Benefit Dependency Network (Ward & Daniel, 2012)
Arsenio, E. et al. / TRA2020, Helsinki, Finland, April 27-30, 2020
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4. Disruptive technology trends in urban passenger transport
The research aimed to identify the range of disruptive technology trends in urban passenger transport that are most
likely to impact on the Portuguese economy pathway towards urban mobility decarbonisation. These are then used
to develop the semi-structured survey to assess stakeholders’ strategies and views and that will be key to build the
BDR. Indeed, urban transport disruptions represent a unique challenge and opportunity for planners and policy
makers to influence and shape outcomes for society but also can lead to non-optimal outcomes (Kane et al, 2017).
The findings reported here were built upon the literature review conducted as part of the previous Horizon 2020
Coordination and Support Action “Users, Safety, Security and Energy in Transport Infrastructure” (USE-iT) Work
Package 4 (WP4) that focused on energy efficiency and carbon reduction across modes (Reeves et al., 2018). As
part of the mentioned WP4, a comprehensive literature review identified technologies across the following
thematic areas: powering transport; constructing and maintaining infrastructure and vehicles; and operating and
managing transport systems. For the purpose of the present research, the analysis of barriers, opportunities,
maturity and transferability of each technology was centred in the case of urban passenger transport. Since the
previous literature review used sources until end of 2016, it had to be complemented. The research strategy was to
make use from updated European Technology Platforms roadmaps and the JRC scientific Hub. The list of
measures/changes that would enable decarbonisation are better described in section 5, noting that these are subject
to the stakeholders’ assessment.
Disruptive innovations represent processes that lead to changes in the transport markets (Christensen, C.M, 2013).
Various technologies are expected to be disruptive in the context of urban passenger transport. The literature
review showed that the following key trends offer a higher disruptive likelihood: automation, connectivity, electric
mobility (including use of renewable energy) and vehicle sharing. Three main innovation clusters related to
interconnected technologies and transport-related solutions can be: a) autonomous driving innovations; b)
technologies for transport sharing and public transport data analysis that stimulate new solutions in urban livability;
c) management systems, platform development and vehicle-optimization technologies (Cassetta et al., 2017;
ERTRAC, 2017a; ERTRAC, 2017b; ERTRAC, 2017c; EC, 2018c).
The expected increase in the uptake of electric mobility and alternative fuels until 2050 will disrupt the
infrastructure network for conventional vehicles and service stations for gasoline/diesel/gas will be replaced.
Considering the work developed by the ITF (2017), shared mobility solutions can be associated with significant
impacts on reduction congestion and emissions but will require changing business models as well. Duarte and
Ratti (2018) posed a series of questions around the ongoing development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) which
are still subject to uncertainty and effects with contradictory evidence (ETSC, 2018; OECD/ITF, 2018).
Nevertheless, AVs are understood as an opportunity to rethink mobility and cities (Alessandrini et al., 2015) and
the first opportunity to rethink urban life and city design since cars replaced horse-powered traffic (Duarte and
Ratti, 2018). For example, if AVs can be part of a multimodal and sharing-mobility system, a significant amount
of parking space in cities will be free, threating established parking management enterprise and source of city
revenues. On the other hand, gains in public space can be released to pedestrians and cyclists, assuming no
additional road space demand will be required or provided for AVs, which can generate additional social and
environmental benefits to citizens. Automated driving is associated to significant socio-economic effects in the
economy, employment structure and skills required in the future (EC JRC, 2018b). The economic impacts of the
full deployment of connected and automated technologies and shared mobility will affect other sectors such as
urban passenger transport, insurance, logistics and health, electronics and software (EC JRC, 2018b; NASEM,
2018). In Europe connected vehicle systems are understood as complementary technologies to automated vehicles
(Zmud, J.P & Reed, N., 2018). Following the same authors, cybersecurity is a big challenge for connected vehicles
and a higher concern for levels 4 (vehicle is self-driving in some conditions but not all) and 5 of automation
(vehicle can be completely self-driving in all situations and no human participation is required).
5. Methodology
Following the literature review steps described in section 4 that identified main disruptive technologies in urban
passenger transport, the initial BDR was built for the network of stakeholders following the main stages of the BM
approach described previously in section 3. For validating the BDR, a survey tool was developed with the purpose
Arsenio, E. et al. / TRA2020, Helsinki, Finland, April 27-30, 2020
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of inquiring a sample of representative stakeholders in the urban passenger transport ecosystem. A semi-structure
survey was developed using the google forms facility. It was organized into three main parts:
Part 1 The organization (stakeholder) strategy in urban passenger transport regarding the identified
trends, their motivations, expected benefits, internal changes required, external changes to the
organization required to fully achieve the expected benefits and the set of critical factors that can influence
(positively or negatively) the intended changes.
Part 2 Trends in urban transport passenger (to achieve sustainable mobility and meet decarbonisation
goals), where stakeholders were asked to rate their perceived effectiveness of the measures identified in
the literature review for decarbonizing mobility. These measures are related to electric mobility
(electrification of road transport, supply of public charging stations, supply of charging stations at the
residence/garage, charging stations of higher speed - less than 10 minutes, higher battery autonomy > 500
km, technology V2G, smart buildings, production of electricity using renewable energy sources),
autonomous driving/automation levels/connected vehicles and sharing (adaptative cruise control,
assistance to driving/safety braking, assistance to driving in dedicated urban corridors, full autonomous
assistance, connected vehicles/ICT, connected vehicles/sharing services, connected vehicles/sharing
information with buildings, connected vehicles/V2V and V2I, connected vehicles with mobile
applications, Vehicle design/materials/aerodynamics, integrated technologies for autonomous,
connected, electric and shared vehicles) and other complementary measures (promoting multimodality,
promoting sustainable urban mobility plans, understanding real time needs of passengers and urban
logistics, promoting accessibility to public transport ensuring social equity, planning for resilient
infrastructures to climate change, governmental incentives to purchase less polluting vehicles,
governmental incentives to generate energy through renewable energy sources, fiscal incentives for
vehicle sharing and taxation of individual car use). Each stakeholder was asked to confirm how they
would see them travel for functional trips in Lisbon by 2030.
Part 3 Changes required to achieve the expected benefits, where stakeholders were asked to rate in terms
of effectiveness a set of relevant changes required to fully enable decarbonisation to occur. A total of
twenty measures that were identified in the literature review are: legislative changes (insurance related to
autonomous driving), legislative changes regulation and monitoring of autonomous and connected
vehicles, legislative changes business models related to vehicle sharing, legislative changes business
models related to autonomous vehicles, legislative changes business models related to connected
vehicles, legislative changes recycling of batteries, electricity generation production of electricity
using renewable energy sources, cultural changes sustainability awareness, cultural changes social
and ethical responsibility, cultural change valuation of resources, cultural change road safety
perception, cultural change new business models (for the sharing economy), planning- promote agile
strategic urban plans and use of ICT to monitor changes, planning- development of intelligent
management platforms, government- internalization of environmental external costs, government
initiatives for a sustainable lithium resources’ extraction.
Considering the complex socio-technical mobility system (differences in interest, cultures, experiences, mental
models, etc.) in a changing business marketplace, the “power of dialogue” acted as a key component in the
approach (Vasconcelos and Silva, 2015). To this purpose, the city of Lisbon facilitated the identification of
stakeholders and their engagement in the process. The pilot survey was tested in July 2018 through the main bus
public transport operator in the city of Lisbon (CARRIS) and its feedback helped to adjust the survey. The semi-
structured survey was then implemented in August/September 2018. A total of 40 stakeholders were invited by e-
mail and the survey could take place online, face-to-face or by phone upon request. The response rate was 20%. It
was possible to obtain feedback from eight stakeholders (public and private), with recognized importance in
passenger urban mobility. The Lisbon city is the capital of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) that concentrates
around 27% of the national population and 30% of the national enterprises (INE, 2018). Additionally, the
participating stakeholders covered several modes of transport like car, bus, train, taxi service and inland waterways
which are representative of the share on mobility patterns. Considering the data presented in the Sustainable
Urban Mobility Action Plan for the LMA, the modal share for internal trips (home/work based) in the city of
Lisbon is: 35.3% (car), 28.3% (bus), waking (23.5%), 10,1% (metro/tramway) train (6%), others (2.7%), including
inland waterways. Table 1 shows the list of institutional stakeholders, including a brief summary of the scope of
their market activities and roles.
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Table 1. Involved stakeholders and roles.
Stakeholder
(group code)
Key roles
CML - Lisbon
City Hall (I)
Portugal's capital; the City is responsible for the urban planning, including the implementation
of the Sustainable Urban Mobility Action Plan for the LMA.
Launched in 2017 an Intelligent Management Platform (smart city).
Responsible for the provision of urban surface public passenger transport service.
EU co-financed projects to renew the fleet of buses with superior environmental and energy
performance.
Carris (W)
Carris, the main public bus operator, has been under CML management since 1st February,
2017.
Passenger mobility data is thus sent to CML, which will enable its use through the city's
intelligent management platform.
Fertagus (W)
The first private railway operator to manage and operate a railway line in Portugal;
Currently it serves 14 stations with a length of 54 km: Setúbal, Palmela, Venda do Alcaide,
Pinhal Novo, Penalva, Coina, Fogueteiro, Foros de Amora, Corroios, Pragal, Campolide, Sete
Rios, Entrecampos and Roma-Areeiro.
Transtejo (W)
Public river transport service integrated into LMA system, being a key operator in the Tagus
river crossing.
EMEL (-)
Plan, manage, operate and ensure the maintenance of public parking in Lisbon, mobility and
the consequent optimization of urban accessibility.
Multimodal travel / electric bike manager (GIRA - Lisbon bicycles).
IP -
Infraestruturas
de Portugal (M)
National road and rail infrastructure manager.
Conception, design, construction, financing, conservation, operation, requalification,
extension and modernization of national road and rail networks, including traffic
management.
Innovation and Planning Departments.
Cabify (U)
Multinational digital transport network company.
Interfaces
Portugal
Transport technology company.
6. Case study
6.1. Identification and structuring of benefits
The first step of the case study identified and structured the expected benefits of the decarbonisation initiative. The
drivers that justify investments are aggregated under different typologies (Ward & Daniel, 2012): (i) the strategic
ones related to the competitiveness within the industry or to a competitive advantage; (ii) the ones with higher
potential resulting from a new business model and/or new technology; (iii) the operational ones that aim to promote
the effectiveness of operations by overcoming or previously avoiding competitive advantages in the future, and
(iv) the supportive ones related to the need to increase efficiency and reduce activity-specific costs. The four
drivers analysed in the present article are shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Analysis of drivers.
ID
Type
Description
D1
Operational
and support
Need for new mobility concepts based on new
technologies and more sustainable behavior
patterns
D2
Strategic
Competitiveness increase
D3
High
potential
Technological innovation
D4
Support
Climate change and global adverse impacts
The objectives of a given stakeholder’s project are: (i) specific, if their description is clearly understood; (ii)
measurable, when these are achieved; (iii) achievable and realistic; (iv) relevant and (v) temporal, i.e. achievable
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within a given period (OGC, 2007). Table 3 represents the objectives which were also related to the previous
drivers.
Table 3. Identification of objectives.
ID
Description of objectives
O1
Increase vehicle energy efficiency and promote innovative, sustainable energy sources & propulsion systems.
O2
Increase transport efficiency and infrastructure use through market incentives.
O3
Increase the efficiency of transport and infrastructure use through information systems.
O4
Reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
Given the definition of the objectives mentioned above, we proceeded with the mobilization of a set of stakeholders
for the execution of the so called “benefits plan”. The identified benefits (long-term, namely, by 2050) are
presented in Table 4. These were also linked to the objectives.
Table 4. Identification of benefíts.
ID
Benefits
B1
Greater recognition by the population of decarbonization mobility policies - considering that the
Government promotes development policies and obtain recognition from the population /voters
B2
Employment creation - increased number of specialized jobs in the field of sustainability of mobility and
transport
B3
Wealth generation - contribution to the GDP increase induced by the replacement / renewal of the car park
(and associated new technological accessories) as well as energy independence (focus on renewable sources)
B4
Reducing external costs (environmental and social) - reducing costs associated with road accidents, travel
time (making the system more efficient), pollution (air quality) and GHG related
B5
Improving the quality of life of the population to prevent/mitigate/adapt to climate change and associated
adverse effects, but also in view of significantly better air quality in large cities
It is important to identify the owner of each benefit, responsible for its delivery according to specific evaluation
metrics (Table 5). As a result, changes in the (business) represent new ways of working and are fundamental
requirements to ensure that benefits are realized.
Table 5. Identification of benefit owners and structuring of metrics.
ID
Description
Owner
Metric
Driver
Objective
B1
Greater public
recognition of
transport and
mobility policies
Government
Population satisfaction (observable) with
transport and mobility policies aimed at
decarbonization, etc.
D1,
D4
O2, O4
B2
Employment
creation
Area of
Government (AG):
Economy
Contribute to reducing the unemployment
rate - from 8.9% at the end of 2017 (INE,
2018)
D1,
D2,
D3
O1, O3
B3
Wealth generation
Automotive
industry
50% reduction in the number of Internal
Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) by
2030 in urban transport and removing
them from city traffic by 2050 (EC, 2011a)
D1,
D2,
D3
O1, O3
B4
Reduction of
external costs
(environmental and
social)
AG: Environment
and Internal Gov
Administration
Approach the goal of “zero deaths” in road
traffic accidents by 2050 (EC, 2011a)
D1,
D2,
D3,
D4
O1, O3,
O4
B5
Improvements in
quality of life
Citizens /
Population
Limiting global average temperature rise
to 1.5°C from pre-industrial level
(UNFCCC, 2015)
D4
O4
Table 6 maps the required changes that in the way current businesses are done. It shall be noted that benefits result
from changes in current ways of working (work processes by individuals, groups or entities). In fact, managers,
users and other relevant stakeholders can all make these changes and then realize benefits. All projects, supported
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or funded, have results, but not all of these become business benefits. Benefits do not occur automatically. Also,
changes need to be monitored and pursued in order to obtain benefits.
Table 6. Identification of (business) changes in the sector.
ID
Description of changes
Owner
Benefits
M1
Change of energy source used by vehicles (decarbonisation of energy
production) - Promote electricity generation through renewable sources that
promotes energy autonomy and independence.
AG: Economy
B1, B2, B3,
B4
M2
New electricity consumption profiles - High energy demand is expected,
especially during the night, which tends to stabilize consumption variations.
AG: Economy
B2, B3
M3
Change in legislation - Legislation should be amended in a number of areas,
including: compulsory recycling of lithium-ion batteries on national territory;
increased electricity production through renewable sources; regulation of new
business models (e.g. technology / transport companies - Uber, Cabify, etc.);
creating financial incentives to promote the population's adoption of
environmentally friendly technologies and habits; creation of new insurance /
guarantee models and typologies.
AG: Finance
ministry
B2, B3
M4
Sustainability awareness (economic, environmental and social) - Need to
raise environmental concern in the population through environmental
education, using youth and children as generational catalysts for change
(healthy and green habits, use of cleaner technologies, and adopting 5Rs as
everyday actions.
AG:
Environment
Gov
Administration
B1, B4, B5
M5
Mobility of the 21st Century (“Cultural Change”) - The way people “look”
at mobility should be shaped and a paradigm shift can be supported by the
following vectors: environmental/energy security and quality of life (for the
current and future generation); respect for other (environmental resources;
individuals in vehicle sharing); etc.
AG: Science,
Technology
and Higher
Education
B5
In order to implement the necessary changes, thus achieving the related objectives and benefits, it is necessary to
identify the set of critical factors that exist in the context of these changes. Table 7 illustrates examples of those
factors.
Table 7. Identification of critical factors for change (illustrative list).
ID
Critical factors
Owner
Changes
Benefits
F1
Exploration of the Portuguese Lithium Reserves - It
is important to exploit endogenous resources in order to
create employment and create wealth by changing the
energy source used in terms of mobility.
AG: Economy
M1
B1, B2, B3,
B4
F2
Internal recycling of lithium-ion batteries - Batteries
are shipped to Germany / Belgium and companies such
as Accurec / Umicore (Hanisch et al., 2015) carry out the
recycling process. It is important to encourage the
creation of specialized companies to reuse lithium-ion
battery components (especially in the face of the
expected boom).
AG: Economy
M1, M3,
M4
B1, B2, B3,
B4, B5
F3
Increased production of electricity from renewable
sources - it is important for the country to reduce its
energy dependency and in parallel contribute to the
reduction of external environmental costs.
AG: Economy
M1, M2,
M3, M4
B1, B2, B3,
B4, B5
F4
Production of components for the electric and shared
mobility - the development of hardware and software by
Portuguese companies will contribute to wealth
generation and job creation.
AG: Science,
Technology and
Higher Education
M1, M2
B1, B2, B3,
B4
F5
New business models in view of a shared and efficient
mobility, it is important to create and explore new
business models that allow vehicle owners to obtain
AG: Planning and
Public
Infrastructures
M3, M5
B1, B2, B3,
B4, B5
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financial benefits from their investment.
F6
Creating financial / tax incentives for adopting green
technologies and habits - Adopt user-pay measures in
conventional technologies; introduce incentives to
remove ICEVs; create benefits for users using shared
vehicles (including public transport).
AG: Finance
M3, M4
B1, B2, B3,
B4, B5
The adoption of technology facilitators by the organizations and the population allows the desired changes towards
sustainable mobility (Table 8). It should be noted that the combination of the three technology facilitators results
in the definition of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles in a single technology package.
Table 8. Identification of technology enablers.
ID
Technology enablers
Owner
Critical
factors
Changes
I1
Electric vehicles - Aiming to directly improving air
quality in cities and contributing to the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions by gradually replacing
conventional vehicles
AG: Environment
F1, F2, F3,
F4, F6, F7,
F8, F9, F11
M1, M2,
M3, M4,
M5
I2
ICT sharing concept - These are catalysts and
aggregators of all vehicle sharing potential and make the
system more efficient and connected through vehicle
intelligence with users, vehicles and infrastructures
AG: Economy
F4, F5, F6,
F7, F8, F9,
F11, F12
M1, M2,
M3, M4,
M5
I3
Autonomous technology It may lead to a transport
system with better road safety indicators if road
accidents are avoided.
AG: Internal
Administration
F6, F7, F8,
F10, F11,
F13
M1, M2,
M3, M4,
M5
6.2. Building the Benefits Dependency Network
The Benefit Dependency Network links the different components described above and maps the owners of changes
and benefits. The identification and structuring of the benefits foreseen in the BDR comprises well-defined
responsibilities and appropriate metrics that enable monitoring of effects. The matrix of power/interest is also
relevant (Fig. 2) to identify stakeholders to monitor/keep informed/satisfied and to manage carefully.
Fig. 2 Matrix of power/interest for the network of stakeholders
6.3. Validation of the Benefit Dependence Roadmap
Using the Lisbon urban passenger stakeholders’ responses to the survey described in section 5 we could validate
the BDN and derive the implied interdependences (Fig. 3).
Arsenio, E. et al. / TRA2020, Helsinki, Finland, April 27-30, 2020
9
Fig.3 Validated aspects (green arrows) of the Benefits Dependency Network by the interviewed stakeholders
7. Results, policy implications and concluding remarks
The case study showed that the BM approach was effective to derive a “Benefits Dependency Roadmap”
considering its validation by the city of Lisbon/representative sample of main stakeholders related to urban
passenger transport. The pilot was able to cover main public (bus, inland waterways) and private modes of transport
(taxi, rail) in the city, infrastructures (national infrastructure manager for road and rail infrastructures), parking
management and technology service providers. Considering the data gathered, the BDR tool helped to highlight
which stakeholders are already aligned with the challenge of decarbonisation and are more likely to be engaged
into collaborative strategies to maximize social and environmental benefits. Due to data privacy issues, only the
aggregate results are shown in this article. The majority of stakeholders considered that the most important
measures to be implemented to enable decarbonisation of urban passenger transport are: to increase citizens
awareness of sustainability issues (promote cultural change/awareness), to promote agile strategic plans and
develop intelligent management platforms (planning), to internalize the environmental costs/externalities of
transport (governmental policy), to implement legislation on business models for vehicle sharing and electric
mobility (regulation) while most considered that autonomous technology is distant and well beyond 2030. The
sampled stakeholders considered that electric and shared vehicles have the highest potential to replace internal
combustion vehicles until 2050. Some public and private operators aim to improve quality of service and to
promote multimodal transport. Two stakeholders mentioned potential benefits with their connection with existing
public electric bicycle stations. Having the identified cooperation of stakeholders, the City of Lisbon is expecting
to achieve future benefits from a decarbonisation roadmap by improving citizens’ quality of life and access to
work, services and leisure. Future research is envisaged to extend the BM tool to a wider network of stakeholders
(e.g. covering urban logistics). Overall, the case study helped to identify policy measures to enable decarbonisation
benefits and demonstrates the importance of co-creating ex ante convergent pathways towards a sustainable and
multimodal urban mobility system.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express thanks to the Lisbon City Council for the support provided to the pilot study.
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