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Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region A Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India: A Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India
Abstract
This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the Indian subcontinent and regional monsoon, the adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It also examines the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and national climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, provide important reference material for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, they offer limited information on the regional aspects of climate change. Regional climate change effects over the Indian subcontinent, especially relating to the Indian monsoon, are unique to the region, and in particular, the climate in this region is shaped by the Himalayas, Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau, the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. Climatic variations in this region are influenced by (a) regional-scale interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere and biosphere on different time scales, (b) remote effects from natural phenomena such as the El Nino / Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Madden Julian Oscillation, and (c) human-induced climate change. This book presents policy-relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.
... The integration of climate variables into vulnerability assessments allows for the identification of hotspots with exposure and sensitivity converge at low adaptive capacity. Understanding the trends and anomalies in climate variables, such as reduced monsoon precipitation or prolonged heatwaves, helps in framing adaptive strategies to mitigate vulnerability (Krishnan et al. 2020). ...
... However, shifting monsoon patterns, increasing rainfall intensity, and prolonged dry spells have exacerbated the frequency of floods and droughts. Tamil Nadu, for instance, has experienced erratic rainfall trends, leading to both water scarcity and flooding (Krishnan et al. 2020). ...
Climatic vulnerability is an emerging concept for understanding the impacts of climate change and its policy implications. It refers to the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Climate change significantly impacts agriculture, causing damage to crop productivity, food security, and economic stability. In India, about 80% of the population resides in highly vulnerable districts. The southern part of India is particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. This study attempts to map the vulnerability of the Cauvery Delta Region in Tamil Nadu using the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) and to classify districts into categories ranging from highly vulnerable to least vulnerable. The results of the study identify district as the most vulnerable, Cuddalore with a CVI of 0.65, followed by Nagapattinam (CVI: 0.52), Thiruvarur (CVI: 0.49), Perambalur (CVI: 0.44), Ariyalur (0.36). Pudukkottai and Tiruchirappalli (CVI: 0.34 each) and Thanjavur (CVI: 0.32) are categorized as less vulnerable districts. This classification is crucial for planning effective remedial measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change and enhance the resilience of the region.
... Consequently, climate change emerges as a formidable impediment to achieving sustainable agricultural development and ensuring food security. Regrettably, India is one of the susceptible nations to climate change, as evidenced by projections from earlier studies (Chaturvedi et al., 2012;Krishnan et al., 2020) indicating escalated rainfall and extreme temperatures, impeding timely crop sowing, growth, yields, and food security. According to Chaturvedi et al. (2012), mean warming across India is anticipated to range between 1.7 to 2.0 °C by the 2030s and 3.3 to 4.8 °C by the 2080s, with precipitation projected to surge by 4 to 5 percent by the 2030s and 6 to 14 percent by 2080s compared to the 1961-1990 baseline. ...
This study investigates the influence of climate change variables—namely rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature—on mean rice yields and yield variability across different agro-climatic zones in Andhra Pradesh during the Kharif and Rabi seasons. Utilizing Just and Pope production function, the research focuses on rice, a crucial crop for both seasons in the region. Drawing from panel data spanning 1998 to 2022, the study offers significant insights. During the Kharif season, increased rainfall, along with favorable maximum and minimum temperatures, positively correlates with higher mean rice yields and reduced yield variability. In contrast, during the Rabi season, only increased rainfall showed a significant impact on enhancing yields and minimizing variability, while temperature variables did not exhibit a substantial effect. Additionally, the time trend variable showed a positive and significant association with mean yield and yield variability in both seasons. Thus, technological advancement has contributed to improved rice yields and reduced variability. These findings underscore the importance of informed decision-making in sustainable rice cultivation, enabling farmers to effectively manage the impacts of climate change on yield and variability. By utilizing this knowledge, farmers can adapt their crop management strategies to optimize productivity and bolster the resilience of rice production in the face of evolving climatic conditions.
Scientific assessments are tools used to look across a broad body of knowledge and draw overarching conclusions about the state of the science. They allow experts to synthesize technical knowledge and develop broad understanding of observed and future trends, risks, and opportunities. The National Climate Assessment (NCA), a major climate report of the United States (U.S.) Government, is one such assessment report. The NCA was created by Congressional statute and is classified as a Highly Influential Scientific Assessment, which results in a wide range of obligations, as well as required compliance with various statutes and other federal policies and procedures. The NCA also represents a unique effort to bring together federal agencies, the scientific community, and users of climate science throughout the U.S. to empower decision-making, build consensus, and drive climate actions. Innovations in the NCA development process over multiple cycles of the report’s development were implemented to meet both evolving legal requirements and user needs are described in this paper to share institutional knowledge and best practices with those assessment developers who might be navigating similarly complex constraints. This paper seeks to summarize that history and draw out some valuable lessons for future interagency assessment development teams. A discussion of critical innovations, including expansion of technical resources, knowledge bases, and communication tools, is included to inform the development process of future scientific assessments.
Groundwater security is threatened by human activities and climate change, especially in developing nations where artisanal and small-scale mining are pervasive. This chapter examines the dual impacts of artisanal small-scale mining and climate change on groundwater resources by focusing on two aspects: quality and availability. Most artisanal small-scale mining is done without considering any regulatory requirements, and results in the contamination of the groundwater. Simultaneously, climate change is increasing the rates of groundwater depletion due to increasing droughts, altering precipitation patterns, and reduced rates of groundwater recharge. Study cases in the Global South illustrate the point of artisanal small-scale mining and climate change: degradation of groundwater is very rapid. This chapter, therefore, underlined the imperative need for integrated management, much firmer regulation, and sustainable mining that could reduce adverse impacts on groundwater security in precarious regions. Future trends have also shown that the activities and impacts related to ASM, as well as those due to climate change, may increase due to unending economic pressures, population growth, and the global precious minerals demand, especially in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Climate models similarly predict more frequent and severe droughts that stress groundwater systems even further. These parallel trends may result in more acute water shortages that undermine livelihoods and intensify conflicts over water resources. The international community and agencies like the United Nations and the World Bank have much to do in the area of capacity building, policy advocacy, and facilitating access to technology that moderates environmental damage to ensure the best sustainable practices that would improve the monitoring and management of groundwater in developing nations for groundwater security future generations.
The key issue behind the recent global climate change is a continuous increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Emission of greenhouse gases during the time period from 2010 to 2019 was higher across the globe than the previous time periods in human history. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases since 1850–1900 is responsible for warming of 1.1 °C. Taking note of the serious issues of global climate change, world governments in the year 1992 agreed on a global treaty called ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’ for stabilising the concentration of greenhouse gases. Subsequently, Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 aimed ‘to hold global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’. Countries made commitments under the Paris Agreement through their nationally determined contribution.
Protection of forested lands, improved forest management, restoration of degraded forests and other ecosystems have major potential to offset emission of greenhouse gases. As per the India State of Forest Reports, carbon stocks in India’s forest increased from 6071 million tonnes in 1996 to 7204 million tonnes in 2021. India’s third National Communication to the UNFCCC reveals that forests were removing 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2019. Shifting of distribution ranges of many species would occur in future owing to the changing climate combined with land-use change. Significant changes in Himalayan forests with respect to their vegetation composition and distribution pattern at different altitudes were observed mainly due to changing climate. Ecosystem-based adaptation and nature-based solutions can enhance mitigation and adaptation benefits of forests towards climate change. Studies on climate change vulnerability, impacts, loss and damage, adaptation and long-term sustainability are priority areas for future research in forest sector. Inadequate financial and technical resources in the country are key barriers for conducting these studies and implementing suitable adaptation measures. A programme to reduce emission from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) was initiated in 2005 by UNFCCC primarily to address the causes of deforestation. However, a comprehensive policy approach put forth by India led to the inclusion of conservation of forest carbon stocks and sustainable management of forests in the agenda of REDD and since then it was upgraded to REDD+. In India, National REDD+ Strategy, Forest Reference Level and Safeguards Information System are already in place to facilitate implementation of REDD+ activities. Forest sector in India is witnessing a number of domestic initiatives to address the climate change issues. Eight national missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change reflect India’s vision of sustainable development along with meeting its climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. The NDC target for forest sector of India is ‘to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030’. In India, a strong policy framework is already in place for the protection and conservation of forests. The objective of the National Forest Policy of 1988 is ‘to ensure ecological constancy and maintenance of ecological balance with an aim to bring one-third of geographical area of the country under forest and tree cover’. The Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980 was brought to check rampant diversion of forest lands for non-forest purposes and to regulate and control the land use changes in forests. With the implementation of this act, the rate of diversion of forest land for non-forest purposes has been radically reduced. The National Working Plan Code also attempts to include climate change and biodiversity conservation aspects through forest working plans in the country.
The paper emphasizes the importance of strong climate diplomacy, particularly in India, in addressing climate issues. It advocates for a world without carbon emissions and promotes climate policy measures in India. The study also highlights the need for international collaboration, successful climate policies, and effective climate finance deployment. The urgent need for India to enhance its climate diplomacy and participate in global sustainability initiatives is emphasized.
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