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Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region A Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India: A Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India
Abstract
This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the Indian subcontinent and regional monsoon, the adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It also examines the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and national climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, provide important reference material for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, they offer limited information on the regional aspects of climate change. Regional climate change effects over the Indian subcontinent, especially relating to the Indian monsoon, are unique to the region, and in particular, the climate in this region is shaped by the Himalayas, Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau, the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. Climatic variations in this region are influenced by (a) regional-scale interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere and biosphere on different time scales, (b) remote effects from natural phenomena such as the El Nino / Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Madden Julian Oscillation, and (c) human-induced climate change. This book presents policy-relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.
... These net changes in emissions can be decomposed into country-level changes in emissions from electricity, which are positive in most countries ( Supplementary Fig. 1), and in emissions from other fuels, which are negative in virtually all countries ( Supplementary Fig. 2). The case of India is particularly striking, as it exhibits large adaptationinduced declines in CO 2 emissions by end-of-century, despite facing substantial increases in exposure to extreme heat in future years 39 . This result is driven partially by the demand responses from ref. 8, which estimate that electricity demand will increase by 4.1 Exajoules (EJs) by 2099, while cumulative demand for other energy will fall by 7.0 EJs, due to electricity-temperature demand responses being relatively flat for much of the world. ...
Many behavioral responses to climate change are carbon-intensive, raising concerns that adaptation may cause additional warming. The sign and magnitude of this feedback depend on how increased emissions from cooling balance against reduced emissions from heating across space and time. We present an empirical approach that forecasts the effect of future adaptive energy use on global average temperature over the 21st century. We estimate that energy-based adaptation will lower global mean surface temperature in 2099 by 0.07 to 0.12 °C relative to baseline projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. This cooling avoids 0.6 to 1.8 trillion U.S. Dollars ($2019) in damages, depending on the baseline emissions scenario. Energy-based adaptation lowers business-as-usual emissions for 85% of countries, reducing the mitigation required to meet their unilateral Nationally Determined Contributions by 20% on average. These findings indicate that while business-as-usual adaptive energy use is unlikely to accelerate warming, it raises important implications for countries’ existing mitigation commitments.
... The average air temperature during the first two decades of the 21st century was 1 °C higher than that of 1850-1900, reaching 1.1 °C higher in 2011-2020 compared to . Furthermore, under the RCP 8.5 scenariothe most extreme GHG emissions pathway-the average land surface temperature is projected to increase by 4.4 °C by the end of the century, relative to the period from 1976 to 2005 (Krishnan et al. 2020). ...
This research aimed to analyze the Spatial and Temporal trends and variations of extreme thermal events in the Pampas region (Argentina) over three periods: the present (2009–2023), the near future (2024–2038), and the Far future (2085–2099) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8. Across these periods, 14 extreme thermal indices were calculated using maximum and minimum temperature series recorded in situ by 48 meteorological stations. For future projections, we employed two validated climate models: the CCSM4 model (validation index: 0.91) for the humid region and the CNRM-CM5 model (validation index: 0.91) for the central region, selected based on their high performance in representing regional thermal conditions. Results revealed a significant warming trend, with regional maximum temperature increasing by 1.1 °C during 2009–2023, and projections of up to 1.4 °C increase in the Far future under RCP 8.5. A notable Spatial heterogeneity was observed, with Western and central sectors of the Pampas showing more pronounced warming patterns than Eastern coastal areas. Extreme indicators showed pronounced changes: absolute maximum temperature (TXx) increased by 2.5 °C in the present period, with projections of up to 4.9 °C increase by 2085–2099 under RCP 8.5. Warm days (TX90p) increased by 5 days/15 years in the present, with projections of 6.7 days/15 years in the Far future. Concurrently, cold events decreased significantly, with cool days (TX10p) declining by 6 days/15 years in the present and projected to decrease by 7.1 days/15 years in the Far future. This thermal intensification will adversely affect agricultural production, economic development, infrastructure, biodiversity, and public health, heightening the vulnerability of the region’s socio-ecosystems. These findings are critical for developing Spatial management plans and designing climate adaptation and mitigation measures at local and regional scales.
... The land-ocean contrast is the fundamental driver of the seasonal monsoon and PR over the India. There is a decrease in annual as well as summer monsoon rainfall over India during 1951-2015, which is attributed to a rising accumulation of the atmospheric aerosols Krishnan et al. 2020). An increased prevalence of localized heavy rainfalls results in increased flooding Roxy et al. 2017). ...
The presence of inherent systematic biases in global Earth System Climate models limit their ability to accurately represent oceanic and atmospheric processes at regional scales. Therefore, the available estimates of future changes in air temperature (T2M) and precipitation (PR) from these models, are subject to high uncertainty. This study evaluates the performance of five widely used bias-correction methods using two reanalysis datasets. Among them, Quantile Mapping (QM) and Time-varying Delta (TVD) show comparable performance, with TVD marginally outperforming QM. An ensemble approach combining TVD and QM (ETQM) leverages the strengths of both methods, outperforming other methods. It is then applied to correct biases in T2M and PR from three selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models over the Indian Ocean region. The upper T2M extremes in the historical period (1980–2014) are corrected by approximately 1.54.5%. A persistent positive bias in PR extremes over the west-central Indian Ocean is reduced by 30–40%. In future projections, the upper T2M extremes decrease by approximately 4.05.0% across most of the study region. The variance in T2M anomalies (relative to the historical period) show a decline of 4.07.0% between 2015–2040, which further increases to 16.022.0% by 2071–2100. The difference in PR anomaly variance before and after bias correction are significant but do not show a substantial change in future periods. Overall, the bias correction suggests a future that is cooler than original CMIP6 model projections. Finally, the bias-corrected T2M and PR will be valuable for driving regional ocean-climate models in climate change studies.
... Conversely, stronger wind speeds over the southern parts of India suggest more efficient moisture transport, corroborating the observed rise in specific humidity. This interplay between weakened winds and dry conditions in the north versus strengthened winds and moist conditions in the south suggests a shifting climatic pattern possibly linked to large-scale circulation changes, such as the weakening of westerlies or alterations in the monsoon onset (Krishnan et al. 2020). ...
In this study, an attempt has been made to examine whether there has been any significant shift in the region of occurrence of extreme weather events associated with high temperature in the past decades during the months of March to June Following the India Meteorological Department (IMD) guidelines, we have identified heatwave locations all over India for the period 1991–2020 (3 decades) using the MAUSAM report and the period 1961–2020 (6 decades) using IMD gridded datasets at 1° × 1° resolution. In the first part, an analysis of extreme weather events caused by heatwaves (HW) and severe heatwaves (SHW) has been made. In each decade, a broad region of recurrence associated with HW/SHW has been identified. This process is repeated for a decadal‐wise study. We observed a spatial–temporal shift in the occurrence of HW/SHW events, with a significantly increasing and decreasing trend in Indian states with HW/SHW‐prone regions. The west coastal region has seen an increase in HW locations starting with the Konkan Coast up to Kerala. Also, the North‐eastern states are facing HW/SHW in the third decade, which is a contradiction to otherwise cooler conditions. In the third decade, SHW locations appear as marked from northwest to southeast India around the central region, as if following a linear structure. The occurrence of HW/SHW in hilly states like Meghalaya, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand is an unprecedented and disastrous condition that can be a dangerous trend for the future. This observational evidence provides valuable insights into the impact of climate change on extreme heat events and helps inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.
... As a result, 2,755 people lost their lives, over 416,667 houses were destroyed, 1.8 million hectares of cropland were damaged, and about 70,000 animals were killed (Pandey and Sengupta, 2022). India's average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901-2018, which may increase by 2.4-4.4°C by the end of the 21st century (Krishnan et al., 2020). Summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures showed a rise of 0.5 to 0.9°C, particularly in the Northern region Complimentary Copy of India. ...
Climate variability is a significant issue that has global implications. It refers to long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns and other climate parameters that could adversely affect the environment, wildlife and human population. Globally, climate change causes adverse effects on agricultural systems, natural resources, livelihood, food and nutritional security, particularly for small and marginal farmers in vulnerable regions. The Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) report warns of impacts such as rising sea level, cyclones, decreased crop produce in rainfed crops, heat stress in livestock, reduced milk productivity and spread of disease. As the repercussions of climate change continue to unfold, there is a need for strategies to enhance resilience within agricultural systems. Many countries depend on their frontline extension systems to cultivate resilience among households. Extension services are pivotal in disseminating knowledge and facilitating adaptation among farmers and stakeholders. This chapter explores the intersection and interaction of climate change and extension services, focusing on cultivating resilience among households from a global perspective, focusing on practical experiences and examining key components of resilience-building within the extension framework. These components include fostering adaptive capacity, promoting sustainable practices, facilitating access to resources and information, and promoting collaboration among diverse stakeholders. The chapter would also shine some light on emerging technologies and innovative approaches that can strengthen extension efforts in addressing climate change. By leveraging extension services effectively, communities can better adjust to the complexities of climatic fluctuations, mitigate risks and build adaptive capacity to ensure sustainable agricultural systems for future generations.
... Shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, such as weakening monsoons, can influence temperature trends by altering moisture availability and cloud dynamics (Krishnan et al., 2016;Rajeevan et al., 2008) ...
The main objective of this study is to examine the trends in mean monthly and mean annual minimum and maximum air temperature in all the five districts of Medinipur Division, West Bengal. To accomplish this, the study utilizes the IMD gridded daily minimum temperature data available at grid resolution of 1°x1° in binary format from the official India Meteorological Department (IMD) Pune website. The study area encompasses 16 grid points and for each point the concerned parameters were analysed for the period between 1951 and 2020 by using Mann-Kendall test and the trend magnitude was measured by Sen’s slope estimator. The results of maximum air temperature show that for monsoon and post-monsoon months, the dominant warming effect is experienced (p < 0.05, α=0.05, n = 70) across all districts with exception in a few pockets, whereas significant cooling tendency is noticeable at same significance level for winter and pre-monsoon months, particularly during December-January and April-May. This conflicting temperature trends in two different seasons makes the annual mean maximum series trendless. In case of minimum air temperature, a cooling effect is dominant in the summer months across all the districts. Significant warming tendency is noticeable in the monsoon and post monsoon particularly during July to September and November. Annual mean minimum series shows an overall increasing trend. However the warming rate (0.0080C to 0.8950C per year) is likely to be higher than the cooling rate (0.0100C to 0.7230C per year)
Aim
The aim of this study was to understand the interplay between local and regional factors as drivers of population physiological diversity in a tropical freshwater crab species.
Location
Western Ghats, south‐west India.
Taxon
Barytelphusa cunicularis, Brachyura, Crustacea.
Methods
We applied an integrative approach combining population genetics and whole animal physiology, using the tropical freshwater crab Barytelphusa cunicularis as our model species. We tested for effects of population location (e.g., latitude, altitude), season (as a proxy for rainfall and water temperature) and/or warming on indices of whole animal respiratory physiology (metabolic rate, MO 2 ) and hypoxic performance (P crit , i.e., the PO 2 at which routine MO 2 can no longer be sustained) in five widely distributed populations of this species. We also generated population genetic data (mtDNA COI and nDNA histone H3 sequences) to determine the extent of any population genetic structuring and/or cryptic species diversity present to verify that we were investigating a single species.
Results
Despite a high level of genetic structuring between the different populations of B. cunicularis examined, the genetic distances observed were consistent with intra‐ and not interspecific differences in freshwater crabs. Populations varied in the diversity of the physiological (MO 2 ) responses observed. There were significant effects of season and population on respiration in response to temperature and P crit in response to acute hypoxia.
Main Conclusions
We conclude that local environmental factors are important in shaping physiological diversity between populations in tropical freshwater species and systems. This highlights the need to include population‐level responses in any projections we make on how biodiversity will respond to ongoing and future environmental changes, including those caused by climate change.
Rising temperature is a major concern globally and its impact on crop production and food security is obvious. The impact of rising temperature on various crops needs to be studied under field conditions. Therefore, a study was conducted at Ludhiana (India) during 2021 and 2022 to investigate the effect of high temperature on growth and yield of cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.), a C3 legume, and pearl millet ( Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.), a C4 cereal grown as fodder crops. Artificial heat stress was imposed during 0–15, 16–30, 31–45, 46–60 and 0–60 days after sowing (DAS). Mini heat tents made up of galvanised iron pipe and polythene sheets were installed which resulted in an increase in maximum and minimum temperature by 4.0°C–5.1°C and 0.5°C–1.5°C, respectively. The heat stress resulted in a statistically significant reduction in the number of branches, plant height, dry matter and fresh fodder yield of cowpea, while it resulted in a statistically significant increase in plant height, dry matter and fodder yield of pearl millet. Physiological parameters like chlorophyll index and flavanol index were decreased under high temperature in both crops indicating stress. Heat stress positively affected chlorophyll fluorescence in pearl millet and negatively in cowpea. Green fodder yield of cowpea decreased by 3.83%–18.56%, while that of pearl millet increased by 9.44%–25.02% under different heat stress treatments. Thus, heat stress resulted in a decrease in fodder productivity of the C3 crop due to a reduction in physiological and growth parameters, while the increase in the same led to an improvement in fodder productivity of the C4 crop.
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