Rapid worldwide research and development related to autonomous and shared autonomous vehicles (AVs and SAVs) and their expected presence on roads capture the attention of the public, decision-makers, industry, and academics. AVs and SAVs are expected to dominate automotive markets in the future due to their distinctive benefits: increased road safety, better utilization of travel time, improved energy consumption, enhanced traffic throughput, and expected environmental benefits are examples of some of the positive implications of these vehicles. However, AVs and SAVs will most likely increase the traveled miles and number of trips on roads because of their greater accessibility, which will most likely aggravate congestion. Therefore, there is a foreseen need for traffic regulation policies like road pricing (RP) to alleviate congestion-related problems in the era of AVs and SAVs.
On the one hand, AVs and SAVs possess advanced technology that allows for the application of advanced RP schemes that is anticipated to be implemented in the presence of driverless vehicles. On the other hand, RP has been proven effective in reducing traffic-related problems, for example, pollution in Milan and congestion in Stockholm. Despite this, the public acceptance of such a policy is considered low, which is a major reason for the scheme's failure. Therefore, this dissertation investigates the possible approaches to applying RP successfully and efficiently in the era of AVs and SAVs.
For a successful implementation of RP, the key requirement is public acceptability, which I investigated through a two-step approach: (1) I distributed a survey based on well-known methodologies in five capitals to define the factors that affect RP acceptability, (2) I developed the previous methodologies and disseminated a survey in four countries to investigate the factors that may influence RP acceptability in the era of driverless vehicles and driverless vehicle adoption in the presence of RP. I utilized different econometric models in analyzing the collected data to provide insight into the public perception of RP, AVs, and SAVs. For instance, a factor analysis was applied to minimize the large set of items into a lower number of factors. A multinomial logit model was generated to obtain the utility function parameters of conventional cars, AVs, and SAVs. In addition, multiple linear regression was applied to investigate RP acceptability as a function of all examined factors.
The results show that, in line with previous research, people who enjoy driving are less likely to choose AVs and SAVs, whereas environmentally oriented users are more likely to opt for AVs and SAVs. On the other hand, my research confirms the importance of other factors, such as the positive impact of the willingness to share personal trips with other passengers on RP acceptability and AV and SAV choice. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the interdependency between the factors influencing RP acceptability and AV and SAV choice. To the best of my knowledge, this study is the first to RP acceptability and AV and SAV adoption while also examining the impacts of various factors on both. Moreover, the results indicate that the identity of each case study and its general policy implications determine which factors significantly affect the public acceptability of the RP scheme.
For an efficient application of RP, I utilized dynamic traffic assignment using a transport network model for Budapest within the traffic macroscopic simulation software "Visum" through a two-step approach to investigate: (1) the impact of the emergence of AVs and SAVs on the Budapest network and consumer surplus in alternative future scenarios (2) the impact of three RP strategies (static and dynamic) on network performance and social welfare in the same alternative future scenarios.
Three future scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 are presented and characterized by different penetration rates of AVs and SAVs to reflect the uncertainty in the market share of future cars. Moreover, the travel demand of the developed scenarios was obtained from The Centre for Budapest Transport projections for the respective years, where the total predicted private transport demand was 2.23, and 2.31 million trips per day for the years 2030, and 2050, respectively. In the "Mix-Traffic" scenario for 2030, conventional cars, AVs, and SAVs operate together in the network. The other two scenarios comprise only AVs and SAVs and are assumed for the year 2050, where the "AV-Focused" scenario represents high dependency on privately owned AV, and the "SAV-Focused" scenario reflects a high usage of SAV fleets. I also compared the implications of three distinct RP strategies in Budapest's proposed future traffic scenarios. The pricing schemes consisted of a static-fixed toll (bridge toll scheme), a static-variable toll (distance-based scheme), and a dynamic RP (link-based scheme).
The results regarding the impact of the deployment of AV and SAV on Budapest's network reveal that: from a traffic perspective, the emergence of AVs and SAVs would improve the overall network performance; furthermore, better performance was observed with increasing the share distribution of SAVs, where the lowest queues length, minimum delays, maximum velocity, and lowest vehicle kilometers traveled took place in the SAV-Focused scenario, followed by AV-Focused and Mix-Traffic scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the consumer surplus increased in all future scenarios, where the highest increment occurred in the AV-Focused scenario. Consequently, the advent of AVs and SAVs will improve traffic performance and increase consumer surplus, benefiting road users and authorities. The results regarding the implications of the applied pricing strategies demonstrate that the impact of RP schemes differs according to the change in penetration rates of AVs and SAVs. Nevertheless, considering the gained social benefits, implementing a dynamic pricing strategy (Link-based Scheme) in the case of AV-Focused and SAV-Focused scenarios performed better than static ones. On the contrary, the static pricing strategies (i.e., Bridge Toll and Distance-based Schemes) outperformed the dynamic ones in the Mix-Traffic scenario. Furthermore, the link-based scheme generated the maximum revenues (i.e., gathered tolls).