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Abstract

This paper develops an intuitive methodology to reveal latent tourism demand. The aim is to quantify its scale by distinguishing the pair of origin-destination and the kind of tourism. The methodology starts measuring the market size that depends on origin population size and their willingness to participate in outbound tourism. Additionally, it takes into account the varying preferences of each origin population for different kinds of tourism. Finally, it compares the current market share of tourism with the expected market share, which is estimated using a random parameter logit model. The study draws on data from EU-28 countries. It provides indicators to select target markets to be strengthened and design strategies based on better air connectivity or oriented marketing campaigns.

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... Sustainability 2020, 12, 7353 2 of 18 As far as tourism is concerned, non-purchasers are identified as consumers who are currently potential purchasers in a particular market, are known to the market players, but who still fail to become consumers, as well as those who currently consume in different markets and are not yet present in the minds of market players as potential entities in tourism [15]. This concept represents the notions of market decision makers, rather than an explanation embedded in the motivations of consumers. ...
... Researchers generally tend to prefer motivation-driven segmentation of current supplies [27,28], and deal to a much lesser degree with latent supply [29]. Naturally, the classic, supply-based division of markets is just as valid for tourism: existing markets, potential markets, and latent markets [15]. Our paper deals with the second and third of these, as existing markets are present, in one way or another, in the processes of tourism. ...
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This paper aims to study non-travelers in order to try to understand why they are absent from tourism and what the causes are for their decision. Our research showed that the study of postmodern causes apart from classic ones holds unique potential in the research of sustainable tourism processes as well. The results of cross-tabulation and correspondence analysis show that postmodern and classic causes are tightly connected to lifestyle, which represents the central theme of the current study based on the results of a Hungarian representative online survey. A certain limitation is that our research is based on the case of Hungary; however, the introduced methodology can be used in general for identifying and evaluating non-travelers. As research implications, the authors believe that the methodology and results can be used by the actors of the tourism supply market and by decision makers as well, especially for segmenting purposes. If we understand who the non-tourists or non-travelers are, we can, on the one hand, determine the latent tourism potential of a tourism destination; on the other hand, we can also receive information on specific market segments, which could contribute to sustainable tourism mostly because of the postmodern causes for non-traveling.
... Consumers are continually subjected to several factors that shape the elasticities of tourism demand [4]. Although prices and income are the most used variables to explain tourism demand, other factors include the competitiveness of rival destinations [5], seasonality [6], advertising campaigns [7] and travel distance [8]. These factors are likely to affect the impact of price on tourism demand and influence the price elasticity of different market segments. ...
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This paper complements the scarce empirical literature on contingent consumption by testing Veblen's conjecture on overnight stays in Portugal. The price elasticities for overnight stays are calculated over 2013-2019 and across NUTS II regions. The results confirm the existence of conspicuous consumption in overnight stays in most Portuguese regions, especially in the Centro, Alentejo and Madeira regions in peak seasons in 2019. Also, in average terms over 2013-2019, the region of Algarve shows evidence of conspicuous consumption of overnight stays. Yet, since the peak seasons are of short duration, the conclusions about the magnitude of elasticities must be handled with caution. These results are relevant not only for tourism management but also to tourism planning at regional level. Indeed, by exploring whether the differences in overnight stays can be explained by a status-seeking behavior, the results carry important implications for spending on future travels, especially in periods of economic downturns.
... The larger the population size, the larger the tourism industry's market scale and potential market scale. The research of Eugenio-Martin and Cazorla-Artiles [35] supports this conclusion. At the regional level, for areas with large populations, population size has a significant role in promoting tourism demand or the number of people arriving. ...
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Analyzing the impact of El Nilo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of tourists is essential in realizing the sustainable development of natural scenic spots. From the current research results, research on the effects of ENSO on tourism focuses on the impact of the formation of the natural environment. However, there is a lack of ENSO-related research on the number of people arriving at natural attractions. This paper considers the adjustment effects of personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size and constructs a new framework of ENSO’s influence on tourism. This paper builds a system GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model) and analyzes the impact of ENSO on tourist flow by using Google Trend data (big data technology) to obtain annual passenger flow data of 48 natural scenic spots in the United States (mainly national parks and national forests). The empirical results show that the increase in ENSO has led to a significant decrease in visitors to natural attractions in the United States. Moreover, the increase in personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size can weaken the relationship between ENSO and the number of tourists. This research expands and enriches the theoretical perspective of ENSO and outdoor tourism.
... Other scholars have analyzed the impacts of crisis events on tourism demand based on micromanagement principles with a focus on tourist safety perceptions, travel preferences and behavior intentions (Araña & León, 2008;Lepp & Gibson, 2003;Walters et al., 2019). While such findings provide a theoretical foundation for the measurement and perspectives of tourism demand (Eugenio-Martin & Cazorla-Artiles, 2020;Jiao et al., 2020), current research topics and perspectives on the effects of crisis events on tourism demand are still focused on the macroeconomy and micro-management and less on geo-spatial aspects. Importantly, this study analyses tourism demand from the geographic perspective, which can effectively reflect the spatial difference and evolution laws of tourism demand in each region and is helpful in clarifying the influencing factors of spatial changes in tourism demand. ...
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This study explores the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 on tourism demand at different spatial scales. The results indicate that at the macroscale, cities with developed economies and mature tourism sectors are more affected while the differences in impact are further expanded at the mesoscale. At the microscale, cultural scenic destinations or well-known attractions are far more affected than natural and religious ones. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the impact of COVID-19 on tourism demand is characterized by the “Heihe-Tengchong Line”, which is mainly affected by factors such as population density, economic level and foreign economic relations.
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This paper builds a vertical differentiation model to analyse the effects of subsidies, or lower aeronautical charges, for secondary airports on competition between low cost and full scheduled carriers. The Ryanair–Charleroi Airport agreement in Europe is used as an example and as a basis for the model. The main findings are that subsidization or lower airport charges benefit consumers and negatively affect incumbent airlines. However, they may be more affected by competition than by the subsidy. An empirical analysis provides a few insights on the influence of dominating airports in Ryanair fares. We conclude that this airline sets lower fares when flights depart from or arrive at dominated airports.
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While the marketing efforts of a number of individual states have been reported in the literature, evidently no previous attempt has been made to analyze the marketingplans of all the states. This article reports on an effort to isolate common and unique marketing approaches across as many states as possible. Thirty-six states and the District of Columbia responded to a requestfor their marketingplan (orsimilar materials). Of these 37 responses, 14 were essentially economic impact studies and 18 were marketingplans or "plan-like" materials; five states indicated that no materials were available. Analysis resulted in a list of 150 destination marketing goals, strategies, tactics, activities, and tasks which provide both an indication ofthe scope ofsuch travel/tourism marketing activities and a collection of "thought-starters" for destinations seeking to enhance their marketing efforts.
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The purpose of this research is to present a method of target market selection developed for the downhill skiing industry of Colorado. A two-dimensional system for strategically classifying alternative markets on the basis of existing sales and incremental sales potential is proposed. Using a regression model of Colorado ski visitation, the 205 nonresident areas of dominant influence (ADIs) in the continental United States are classified.
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The present paper suggests “management of demand” in the context of a careful target-marketing approach as an important instrument for the sustainable development of a tourist destination. Traditionally, destination areas plan and manage in a rather product and resource-centred way. An increased marketing effort is nowadays frequently demanded, but there are limits in adapting to the market, calling for a combined supply and market-led approach to destination marketing. In this context, “management of demand” may contribute to more sustainable tourism development. This is shown using the example of the rural tourist market in North Portugal, which is segmented based on benefits sought. Segments are evaluated according to a set of criteria in terms of attractiveness and destination-fit. The careful selection of the target market and its eventual differentiation in space and time may help a destination pursue its main development goals, which should further depend on the interests of all local stakeholders and consider preservation priorities.
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This paper presents the results of a stated choice modelling study of the factors underlying holiday destination choices. The study comprises the analysis of short-break holiday choices by tourists from Sydney, Australia in the context of six destination regions. The response data reflect the way the attributes of competing destinations influence Sydney residents' destination choices. The modelling of these choices enables estimation of the trade-offs between varying levels of destination attributes. This includes estimation of the implicit prices of attribute changes, which are reported in this paper. The simulated market share effects of selected changes in destination attributes and respondent characteristics are also presented.
Article
This paper analyses the factors involved in the decision to consume tourism services for leisure purposes. A discrete choice logit model is used, with data drawn from the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey for the period 1985-96. The results suggest that limitations on free time, cultural factors, income (with an income elasticity below one), age and the generation effect are all crucial determining factors in the probability of travel. The use of micro data leads to the detection of a high degree of heterogeneity, both among households and in the different degree to which the aforementioned variables affect travel decisions.
Chapter
The goal of portfolio selection is the construction of portfolios that maximize expected returns consistent with individually acceptable levels of risk. Using both historical data and investor expectations of future returns, portfolio selection uses modeling techniques to quantify “expected portfolio returns” and “acceptable levels of portfolio risk,” and provides methods to select an optimal portfolio. It would not be an overstatement to say that modern portfolio theory has revolutionized the world of investment management. Allowing managers to quantify the investment risk and expected return of a portfolio has provided the scientific and objective complement to the subjective art of investment management. More importantly, whereas at one time the focus of portfolio management used to be the risk of individual assets, the theory of portfolio selection has shifted the focus to the risk of the entire portfolio. This theory shows that it is possible to combine risky assets and produce a portfolio whose expected return reflects its components, but with considerably lower risk. In other words, it is possible to construct a portfolio whose risk is smaller than the sum of all its individual parts.
Article
Seasonality is one of the most problematic but least understood aspects of tourism. Many destinations are suffering from this phenomenon every year, yet limited efforts have been made to overcome the troublesome issue. This research proposed an approach to obtaining quantitative solutions which can ultimately assist marketers in mitigating seasonal effects. The study applied financial portfolio theory, widely used in securities allocation decisions. While determining the segment mix solutions to seasonality and describing the Seasonal Demand Efficient Frontier, this paper suggests that marketers should select a mix of tourism segments that fall along the Frontier given a demand–risk target.RésuméL’atténuation de la saisonnalité du tourisme : une approche quantitative. La saisonnalité est un des aspects les plus problématiques et les moins bien compris du tourisme. Bien des destinations souffrent de ce phénomène chaque année, pourtant on a fait peu d’efforts pour surmonter ce problème difficile. Ce travail de recherche a proposé une approche pour obtenir des solutions quantitatives qui pourraient à la fin aider les services commerciaux à mitiger les effets saisonniers. La recherche a appliqué la théorie du portefeuille financier, qui est souvent utilisée dans des décisions de l’allocation des valeurs. En déterminant les solutions de diversification de segments qui pourraient atténuer la saisonnalité et en décrivant la Frontière Efficace de la Demande Saisonnière, cet article suggère aux services commerciaux de choisir un mélange de segments de tourisme qui se trouvent à la Frontière étant donné un objectif de demande et de risque.
Article
This paper describes the relationship between regional climate in the home area and the choice of taking holidays in the region of origin or abroad. This decision is simultaneously estimated with a bivariate probit model. The study combines the socioeconomic characteristics of European households with information on the region of residence, such as climate, which is defined according to a new annualized climate index. The estimated probabilities are analysed using GIS and nonparametric techniques. The results of modelling support the hypothesis that the climate in the region of residence is a strong determinant of holiday destination choice. They show that residents in regions with better climate indices have a higher probability of travelling domestically and a lower probability of travelling abroad.
Article
The literature of destination choice has so far studied multi-stage decision making processes that are more representative of the general choice behavior of tourists (e.g. going on vacation, going abroad, and destination country). Alternatively, this study proposes a multi-stage decision process to the choice of tourist destination types (going on vacation, coastal character, and urban character of the destination) as these choice sets are more idiosyncratic to tourists who prefer a specific type of tourist destination (e.g. Spain with clear coastal and inland variations). In order to test this multi-stage choice process as well as the sequential order of both decisions, coastal character and urban character, the current study analyses decision processes vs. different hierarchical multi-stage processes (going on vacation and coastal character preceding urban character; and going on vacation and urban character preceding coastal character). The empirical findings support the existence of a multi-stage choice process where coastal character precedes the urban character destination choice. The main implication of these findings is that, given the limited human analytical capability, a hierarchical choice process can be useful to handle the information overload and the complexity inherent to the destination type choice.
Article
The focus of this paper is on the microeconometric analysis of spatial choice in a cross section. Nested multinomial logit models are used to analyze the determinants of individual choice among destinations and vacation activities. Cramer and Ridder's likelihood ratio test for pooled alternatives in multinomial logit models is sequentially applied in order to determine the adequate aggregation level of the mutually exclusive alternatives in the choice set. The specification test suggested by Chesher and Santos Silva (1992) is used to investigate whether or not the IIA proposition is fulfilled within the assumed choice subsets.
Article
This study explored relationships between selected factors and several key stages of the international vacation tourism decision-making process. A theoretical framework of vacation decisions involving terrorism risk served as the foundation for the analysis. Eight independent variables were examined, including international travel experience, risk perception level, international travel attitude, age, gender, education, income and presence of children in household. Dependent variables were three key stages of the decision-making process, including the general decision to travel internationally versus domestically, the extent of information search and concern for safety in evaluating destination alternatives. A mail survey of international tourists achieved a 48% response rate. Non-response bias was tested with telephone interviews. Data were analyzed using multiple and simple regression. International attitude, risk perception level and income were found to directly influence international vacation destination choice. Touristic experience and education were indirect influences.
Article
This paper focuses on the attraction basis of tourism, and addresses the neglected issue of latent demand for visits to museums and other heritage attractions. It considers the existing literature on consumer decision making to be inadequate in its application to museums and other heritage attractions, and especially in terms of latent demand. Indeed, the paper argues that other literatures need to be consulted to construct a model of consumer decision making appropriate to museums and other heritage attractions, focusing on latent demand. Such a model, the ‘columnar’ model, is proposed, and the potential usefulness of the model in segmenting latent demand is outlined as a basis for ‘product’ development and promotion.
Article
In this article we survey common themes in recent migration research and comment on the actual and potential contribution of regional science to this literature. There has been a marked shift in research from internal to international migration. The two research programmes would benefit from a unified framework. Spatial and systemic features of migration systems remain underdeveloped. Moreover, the perspectives from the different disciplines that intersect in regional science can still be integrated better. Communication of the research findings in terms understood by policymakers and practitioners is also desirable. Finally, many new and interesting research topics will emerge when greater effort is made to link migration research with other current research topics in regional science. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2003
Article
Competition between low-cost carriers in rapid expansion and full-service network carriers has definitely become one of the most relevant issues of the airline industry. The present paper addresses this matter by analyzing the entry of the low-cost Gol Airlines, in the Brazilian domestic market, in 2001. A route-choice model is estimated by making use of a flexible post-entry equilibrium profits equation and accounting for endogeneity of the main variables. Results indicate the relevance of market size and rival's route presence as underlying determinants of profitability. Furthermore, it is also performed an analysis of the consistency of Gol's entry patterns with the route-choice behavior classically established by the pre-eminent US low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines - that is, a focus on short-haul and high-density markets. Evidence is found that although Gol initiated operations by reproducing the behavior of Southwest, it quickly diversified its portfolio of routes and, at the margin, became more in accordance with the pattern of entry of JetBlue Airways (another successful US low-cost carrier), focusing mainly on longer-haul markets, albeit with some relevant country-specific idiosyncrasies.
Article
We present a micro-econometric limited dependent variable model, which simultaneously explains the decision whether to go on vacation or not, the choice of destination and the decision on the level of the vacation expenditures. The model has been estimated on the basis of a cross-section of Dutch households; we find a striking difference in income elasticity between domestic vacations and vacations abroad, and a large impact of owning certain durables (such as a boat) on the choice of destination. To illustrate the potential of the model, some simulations are performed.
Article
There were substantial fluctuations in the numbers of American overseas travelers, especially before World War II. These fluctuations in travel around the robust, long term upward trend are the focus of this paper. We first identify those fluctuations in the raw data and then try to explain the pattern of overseas travel in a quantitative way. As we show, despite the impact of a myriad of episodic events, the fluctuations in travel can be explained to a large extent by changes in the direct price of travel, changes in per capita GDP in the U.S., the extent of travel in the preceding year, and by periods of armed conflict in Europe. We attempt to explain some of the remaining variation for specific episodes in which the actual level of travel differed substantially from the predicted.