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Taking the
‘naturalness’
out of natural
disaster
(again)
INSIDE ...
Letters
Page two
H7N9 waits in the wings
Page three
(Please see “Climate,” page fourteen)
Volume XXXVIII • Number 3 January 2014
Observer
Natural Hazards
Earth in peril (from space)
Page nine
Send the u ‘over there’
Page ten
An invited comment by
J.C. Gaillard, Michael
Glantz, Ilan Kelman, Ben
Wisner, Zenaida Delica-
Willison, and Mark Keim
C
Letters
The Natural Hazards Center joins with the rest of the hazards community in
mourning the loss of Bill Anderson, a giant in the eld of disaster loss reduction. An-
derson died on December 29, 2013, while on vacation in Hawai’i.
For over two decades, Bill served as the National Science Foundation program
ofcer for the NHC, providing invaluable guidance and support. Throughout his dis-
tinguished career in academia and at the American Sociological Association, NSF,
the World Bank, and at the National Academies, Bill was a consummate researcher,
mentor, and leader.
A Celebration of Life Service will be held on March 22, 2014 at a location to be
determined.
2 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
Staff
Research Afliates
Observer
Observer January
31, 2014
Natural Hazards Observer
H7N9 virus rushes toward the species barrier
Research varies on
whether virus can yet
jump from animals to
humans
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 3
T
Eurosurveillance
American Journal of Pathology
AJP
4 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
They Said It ...
Slate
-
quoted
Jerry
-
2013 by
swissinfo.ch
Jerry
-
swissinfo.ch
Strait Times
-
quoted
-
quoted
by
quoted
The Daily Beast
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 5
Haiyan highlights hurricanes’ havoc
Philippines hit by more and stronger
typhoons since 1983
T
Saferworld
report-
ed
Wall Street Journal
6 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
Geophysical Research Leers
Have scientists ‘substantially underestimated’ sea level rise?
Instrumentation gaps
may have led to low
estimates of warming
paper
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Me-
teorological Society
paper
RealClimate
Earth’s Future
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 7
Advances made in tsunami warnings
Shipboard, GPS, and
satellite systems all show
promise
T
Geophysi-
cal Research Leers
Science
Yarnell Hill disaster: Poor planning
and communication
New report says agency
re strategy ‘indefensible’
8 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
according
New
York T im es
Pacic Northwest quake could trigger giant landslides
Problem would be ‘greater
than previously thought,’
based on new analysis
T
study
Bulletin
of the Seismological Society of America
study
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 9
Look out below!
The earth in peril (again) from space
Chelyabinsk meteor highlights perils of near
eath objects. And, oh yeah, you probably
didn’t notice the massive solar storm.
Science Express
10 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
Killing them
softly—with
the Spanish u
Over there, over there,
Send the word,
Send the word over there
That the Yanks are coming, the Yanks are coming
The drums rum tumming everywhere
So prepare, say a prayer
Send the word, send the word to beware
We’ll be over, we’re coming over
And we won’t come back till it’s over over there
An invited comment by Joe Scanlon and Brenna Lester
Doctor Roy writes about the u
On September 29, 1918, a dOctOr who signed his name
only as “Roy” wrote a
letter
to a physician friend from
Camp Devens. He wrote, “This epidemic started about
four weeks ago, and has developed so rapidly that the
camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till
it has passed. All assemblages of soldiers taboo.”
Camp Devens was established in September
1917 as a temporary facility for training soldiers. It was
named in honor of Brevet Major General Charles
Devens, a Massachusetts native who served in the
American Civil War and was later attorney general in
the Grant administration. The letter was featured on the
PBS program The American Experience.
Dr. Roy continued, “These men start with what
appears to be an attack of la grippe or inuenza,
and when brought to the hospital they very rapidly
develop the most viscous type of pneumonia that
has ever been seen. Two hours after admission they
have the mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and
a few hours later you can begin to see the cyanosis
extending from their ears and spreading all over the
face, until it is hard to distinguish the coloured men from
the white.
“It is only a matter of a few hours then until death
comes, and it is simply a struggle for air until they
suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand it to see one,
two or twenty men die, but to see these poor devils
dropping like ies sort of gets on your nerves. We have
been averaging about 100 deaths per day, and still
keeping it up.
“There is no doubt in my mind that there is a new
mixed infection here, but what I don’t know. My total
time is taken up hunting rales, rales dry or moist, sibilant
or crepitant or any other of the hundred things that one
may nd in the chest, they all mean but one thing here
— pneumonia — and that means in about all cases
death.”
Dr. Roy was overworked, with 168 beds in his ward,
and lots of paperwork. There were four day nurses and
ve night nurses.
“I don’t wish you any hard luck Old Man,” he wrote
toward the end, “but do wish you were here for a while
at least. It’s more comfortable when one has a friend
about. The men here are all good fellows, but I get so
damned sick o’ pneumonia that when I eat I want to
nd some fellow who will not ‘talk shop’ but there ain’t
none, no how. We eat it, sleep it, and dream it, to say
nothing of breathing it 16 hours a day.”
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 11
12 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
American Experience
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 13
Joe Scanlon is professor emeritus and director of the Emergency
Communications Research Unit at Carleton University in Oawa,
Canada. He and his researchers have wrien two earlier articles as
aspects of the u. Brenna Lester is a fourth year history student at
Carleton.
American Journal of Disaster Medicine
Mortality
14 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
Going up —climate disasters
Climate ...
(
Continued from page one)
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 15
Going down—focus on root causes
Ben Wisner discovered natural hazards in 1966 while living in
a Tanzanian village aected by ood, drought, pest aacks on stored
grain and residential re spreading rapidly from thatched roof to
thatched roof.
J.C. Gaillard is an associate professor at the School of Environ-
ment of The University of Auckland.
Michael Glantz is now researching “lessons learned about les-
sons learned” about hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction.
Ilan Kelman is a reader in risk, resilience and global health at
University College London.
Aer surviving a severe tornado that destroyed his home
and community in 1982, Mark Keim now serves as an associate
director of science, leading the U.S. Centers for Disease Control’s
eorts for disaster risk reduction as it applies to health.
Who pays for disasters?
Typhoon Haiyan not only devastated the Phil-
ippines but has ruptured the fragile bonds among
the rich and poor nations over
who pays
for climate
change. The New York Times reported in mid-Novem-
ber from Warsaw that “a routine international climate
change conference here turned into an emotional
forum, with developing countries demanding compen-
sation from the worst polluting countries for damage
they say they are already suffering.”
That poor countries contribute little to the causes
of climate change while taking on most of the impact
burdens has long been accepted policy wisdom. But
now that the effects of global warming are being felt
on the ground—from sea level rise, stronger storms,
higher storm surges, and the like—there appears to
be a growing restlessness among developing nations
about the costs.
A recent study by Germanwatch assessed “to
what extent countries have been affected by the
impacts of weather-related loss events.” They found
that in 2011—the most recent year for which complete
were available—the most affected nations were Thai-
land, Cambodia, Pakistan, El Salvador and the Philip-
pines. For the 20 years between 1992 and 2011, Hon-
duras, Myanmar, and Nicaragua were the hardest hit.
All of these are developing nations that produce little
climate impact.
“We are at these climate conferences essentially
moving chess gures across the board without ever be-
ing able to bring these negotiations to a conclusion,”
Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations
Environment Program, told the Times.
John Kioli, chairman of the Kenya’s Climate
Change Working Group, said, “If developed countries
are reasonable enough, they are able to understand
that they have some responsibility.”
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 16
Zenaida Delica-Willison is an independent consultant in the
Philippines and winner of the Mary Fran Myers Award for work on
gender and disaster.
References
Disaster Prevention and Management
StarAfrica.com
http://en.starafrica.com/news/mozambique-
begins-compulsory-evacuation-of-people-in-ood-risk-areas.
html.
Land Degradation and
Society
http://
www.cred.be/emdat
Rural Development: Puing the Last
First
International
Journal of Biodiversity and Conservation
DesInventar
Online: Sistema de Inventario de Efectos de Desastres
http://online.desinventar.org/
Journal of
International Development
Climate and
Development
International Journal of Mass Emergencies and
Disasters
Climatic Change
Interpretation of Calamities
Geographische
Rundschau International Edition
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the IPCC
Climate Change Adaptation and
Disaster Risk Reduction
The Environmentalist
Nature
Weather and Climate Extremes
2009 Global Assessment Report on
Disaster Risk Reduction
2011 Global Assessment Report on
Disaster Risk Reduction
Journal of Alpine Research
http://rga.
revues.org/1701
International Social Science Journal
At
Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters.
Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies
Handbook of
Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction
Let Them Eat
(Maize) Cake: Climate Change Discourse, Misinformation and
Land Grabbing in Tanzania. Contested Global Landscapes
Dams and Development:
A New Framework for Decision-Making
Natural Hazards Observer • Januray 2014 17
Below are brief descriptions of some of the resources on hazards and disasters that have recently come to the
attention of the Natural Hazards Center. Web links are provided for items that are available free online.
Other materials can be purchased through the publisher or local and online booksellers.
All of the material listed here is available at the Natural Hazards Center Library. For more information
contact librarian Wanda Headley at wanda.headley@colorado.edu.
CLIMATE
-
http://bit.ly/1cqLbj1
www.cambridge.org/9781107694736
Living in a Dangerous Climate
Australopithicus
afarensisH. sapiens
ALL HAZARD
www.icpress.co.uk
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 18
Below are descriptions of some recently awarded contracts and grants related to hazards and disasters.
http://www.nsf.gov/
awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1333311
Calculating Catastrophe
www.politybooks.com
Disasters Without Borders
EARTHQUAKE
http://bit.ly/1833O8O
Natural Hazards Observer • Januray 2014 19
http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/
showAward?AWD_ID=1331260
http://www.nsf.gov/
awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1361454
http://www.nsf.
gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1401260
http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1360066
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 20
http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_
ID=1361323
http://
www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1400850
http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/
showAward?AWD_ID=1361678
Natural Hazards Observer • Januray 2014 21
January 16-17, 2014
Northridge Earthquake Symposium
Pacic Earthquake Engineering Research Center
Los Angeles, California
Cost: $50
http://www.northridge20.org/
January 29-30, 2014
Symposium on Earthquake and Landslide Risk in
Central Asia
European Commission FP7 Project
Bishekek, Kyrgyz Republic
Cost: $41
http://bit.ly/1kPh6Z3
January 30-31, 2014
Baltic Earth Workshop on Natural Hazards and Extreme
Events in the Baltic Sea Region
Baltic Earth
Helsinki, Finland
Cost: Free
http://www.baltic-earth.eu/hazards/
February 8-13, 2014
67th Society for Range Management Annual
International Meeting, Technical Training and Trade
Show
Dow AgroSciences and Society for Range Management
Orlando, Florida
Cost: $365
http://rangelands.org/orlando2014/
February 11-13, 2014
Business Continuity and Emergency Response Forum
Fleming Gulf
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Cost: $3,199
http://security.eminggulf.com/business-continuity-
emergency-response-forum
February 13-16, 2014
Second World Congress on Disaster Management
World Congress on Disaster Management
Hyderabad, India
Cost: $250
http://wcdm.info/index.html
February 17-19, 2014
International LiDAR Mapping Forum
SPAR Point Group
Denver, Colorado
Cost: $550
http://www.lidarmap.org/international
February 19, 2014
Advances in Extratropical Cyclone Understanding and
Prediction
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency Center for Weather
and Climate Prediction
College Park, Maryland
Cost: Free
22 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/35th.php
February 24-26, 2014
Climate Leadership Conference
Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Association of Climate
Change Ofcers, and others
San Diego, California
Cost: $525
http://www.climateleadershipconference.org/about.html
March 13-14, 2014
2014 Annual Land Use Conference
Rocky Mountain Land Use Institute
Denver, Colorado
Cost: $525
http://www.law.du.edu/index.php/rmlui/rmlui-practice/
rmlui-annual-conference/program
March 14-18, 2014
3rd World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
UNISDR
Sendai City, Japan
Cost: Not posted
http://www.preventionweb.net/wcdrr/
March 19-20, 2014
2014 Aerial Fire Fighting Conference
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection
Sacramento, California
Cost: $1400
http://tangentlink.com/event/aerial-reghting-
sacramento-2014/
May 5-8, 2014
5th Africa Regional Platform for Disaster Risk
Reduction
United Nations Ofce for Disaster Risk Reduction-Regional Ofce
for Africa
Abuja, Nigeria
Cost: Not specied
http://www.unisdr.org/africa
March 20-21, 2014
ASIS Region 1D Conference: Critical Infrastructure
Protection
American Society for Industrial Security
San Diego, California
Cost: $175
http://www.sdasis.org/
May 5-7, 2014
Design for Urban Disaster
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Cost: $75
http://www.designforurbandisaster.com/
May 12-15, 2014
2nd International Conference: Climate Change —The
Environmental and Socio-Economic Response in the
Southern Baltic Region
Baltic Sea Experiment and Szczecin University
Szecsecin, Poland
Cost: Not available
http://www.baltex-research.eu/SZC2014/index.html
May 19-21, 2014
Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Change
Preparedness Conference
Antioch Univesrity, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Manchester, New Hampshire
Cost: $240
Natural Hazards Observer • January 2014 23
Natural Hazards Observer
ISSN 0737-5425
Printed in the USA.
Published bimonthly. Reproduction with acknowledgment is permitted and encouraged.
ObserverObserver
Observer
ObserverDR-Disaster Research News You Can Use
http://ibs.colorado.edu/hazards/subscribe
http://www.antiochne.edu/innovation/climate-change-
preparedness/
June 11-12, 2014
16th Futures Conference: Sustainable Futures in a
Changing Climate
Turku University, Finland Futures Research Centre
Helsinki, Finland
Cost: $475
http://www.futuresconference./2014/
June 16-18, 2014
23rd SRA-E Conference
Society for Risk Analysis
Istanbul, Turkey
Cost: $750
http://srae2014.itu.edu.tr/
June 16-20, 2014
34th EARSeL Symposium
University of Warsaw
Warsaw, Poland
Cost: $538
http://www.earsel.org/symposia/2014-symposium-Warsaw/
index.php
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