Technical ReportPDF Available

Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen durch die Transformation zu nachhaltiger Mobilität

Authors:
  • M-Five GmbH Mobility, Futures, Innovation, Economics
  • M-Five GmbH
  • M-Five GmbH Mobility, Futures, Innovation, Economics
  • M-Five GmbH Mobility, Futures, Innovation, Economics

Abstract and Figures

Macro-economic analysis of the impact of a transition to sustainable mobility in Germany until 2035. The analysis includes GDP and employment impacts as well as sectoral impacts on the automotive industry and on related industries like electronics and electric enegineering. Results indicate a stable development of GDP during the transition but a massive structural change on sectors and jobs.
Content may be subject to copyright.
A preview of the PDF is not available
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Article
Full-text available
The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) has created widespread fear of job loss and further rises in inequality. This paper discusses the rationale for these fears, highlighting the specific nature of AI and comparing previous waves of automation and robotization with the current advancements made possible by a widespread adoption of AI. It argues that large opportunities in terms of increases in productivity can ensue, including for developing countries, given the vastly reduced costs of capital that some applications have demonstrated and the potential for productivity increases, especially among the low skilled. At the same time, risks in the form of further increases in inequality need to be addressed if the benefits from AI-based technological progress are to be broadly shared. For this, skills policies are necessary but not sufficient. In addition, new forms of regulating the digital economy are called for that prevent further rises in market concentration, ensure proper data protection and privacy, and help share the benefits of productivity growth through the combination of profit sharing, (digital) capital taxation, and a reduction in working time. The paper calls for a moderately optimistic outlook on the opportunities and risks from AI, provided that policymakers and social partners take the particular characteristics of these new technologies into account. which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Article
Full-text available
At the dawn of the second automotive century it is apparent that the competitive realm of the automotive industry is shifting away from traditional classifications based on firms' production systems or geographical homes. Companies across the regional and volume spectrum have adopted a portfolio of manufacturing concepts derived from both mass and lean production paradigms, and the recent wave of consolidation means that regional comparisons can no longer be made without considering the complexities induced by the diverse ownership structure and plethora of international collaborations. In this chapter we review these dynamics and propose a double helix model illustrating how the basis of competition has shifted from cost-leadership during the heyday of Ford's original mass production, to variety and choice following Sloan's portfolio strategy, to diversification through leadership in design, technology or manufacturing excellence, as in the case of Toyota, and to mass customisation, which marks the current competitive frontier. We will explore how the production paradigms that have determined much of the competition in the first automotive century have evolved, what trends shape the industry today, and what it will take to succeed in the automotive industry of the future.
Book
Neue ÖPNV-Konzepte vernetzt gedacht und erklärt Dieses Lehr- und Fallstudienbuch bietet sowohl eine theoretische Einführung in die Thematik "Öffentlicher Personennahverkehr" als auch 25 Fallstudien mit Lösungen. Im Zentrum der Theorie stehen die strategischen Aktionsfelder der Verkehrsunternehmen und -verbünde sowie die jeweiligen Rahmenbedingungen. Die gewählten Beispiele – überwiegend aus Deutschland und Österreich – weisen durchwegs eine hohe Komplexität auf. Geeignete Instrumente zur Analyse und Lösung solcher Problemstellungen bietet die Methodik des vernetzten Denkens. Daher erläutert die Autorin zudem die Anwendung der diesbezüglichen Instrumente. Zu jeder Fallstudie wird ein Lösungsvorschlag angeboten. Ein Vorteil dieses Buches zum öffentlichen Nahverkehr ist, dass die Fragestellungen zu den einzelnen Fällen je nach Interesse und Schwerpunktsetzung auch variiert werden können, was die Fälle universeller einsetzbar bzw. anwendbar macht.
Article
Data has become a crucial resource to increase firms' efficiency in product design, production, distribution, marketing and virtually all parts of the value chain. From a competition policy perspective, however, the question emerges whether a firm's data ‘treasure’ can be the source of competitive advantage that make sit very unlikely or even impossible for other firms to catch up in the foresee able future. While digital platforms have injected competition into manymarkets, there is also an increased risk of market foreclosureby large platforms due to the tippy ‘winner-takes-all’ nature of these markets.
Article
Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI)—a general purpose technology affecting many industries—has been focused on advances in machine learning, which we recast as a quality-adjusted drop in the price of prediction. How will this sharp drop in price impact society? Policy will influence the impact on two key dimensions: diffusion and consequences. First, in addition to subsidies and intellectual property (IP) policy that will influence the diffusion of AI in ways similar to their effect on other technologies, three policy categories—privacy, trade, and liability—may be uniquely salient in their influence on the diffusion patterns of AI. Second, labor and antitrust policies will influence the consequences of AI in terms of employment, inequality, and competition. © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research. All rights reserved.
Article
Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission's 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, which aims for a low-carbon economy that increases the security of the EU's energy supplies and creates new opportunities for growth and jobs, among other benefits. We assess whether renewable energy deployment in Europe can provide this “triple dividend”, at which ambition levels of 2030 RES targets and what the role of the support policy scheme for electricity is. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. Additional emission reductions of up to 1040 Mt CO2, as compared to a baseline scenario in 2030, are possible. Demand for fossil fuels can likewise be reduced due to the deployment of renewable energy sources by up to 150 Mtoe. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets.
Article
I. Introduction, 65. — II. A model of long-run growth, 66. — III. Possible growth patterns, 68. — IV. Examples, 73. — V. Behavior of interest and wage rates, 78. — VI. Extensions, 85. — VII. Qualifications, 91.
Book
This book provides the first comprehensive description of the integrated assessment model ASTRA that enables to perform Strategic Sustainability Analysis of the European Transport Policy. Applying System Dynamics and integrating micro-level transport models with meso- and macro-level economic models constitute unique features of this tool. There is an increasing demand of transport policy makers for decision support, which is tak-ing into account the long-term sustainability impacts of transport policy actions. Several economic instruments have been developed in the past years to meet this demand: First of all macro-econometric models have been extended and highly differentiated, thus allowing for more detailed sector analysis and extended time horizons. Secondly spatial computed general equilibriums models (SCGE) are gaining importance, because they allow for testing welfare-theoretical measures of efficiency, which are widely accepted among economists. Thirdly the system dynamics approach has been rediscovered which had been very popular in the seventies after the basic foundations of Jay Forrester and the first applications of Dennis Meadows for the Club of Rome. This book is following the third line of research and presents the construction of a large-scale system dynamics tool to analyse the interactions between transport, the economy and the environment. This opens the possibility to analyse problems of new dimensions. Policy bundles can be constructed and their impacts can be tested for different periods of the future. For instance investment programmes in the transport sector can be assessed together with the financial instruments like taxes, credits or user charging. Each of the resulting policy bundles is characterised by typical impact chains over the markets and over time such that the outcomes can look very different. Another example is the construction of a sustainable development path for the development of the transportation system, when sustainability is defined eventually by a set of safe maximum values for the emission of greenhouse gases. The quantitative simulation of impact paths is close to reality and gives more reliable information to the policy makers compared with partial modelling. Synergetic and counterproductive effects can be identified in an early phase and treated politically by an appropriate timing of intensities or bundling of policy actions. This makes the ASTRA model an suitable tool to test alternative transport policy strategies.