Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) three
pillars of man-made global warming: collapsed
Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil Oxford, geology, 1982-86)
Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-7
25th May 2020, amended 6th June 2020
The United Nations IPCC says ongoing warming is due to man's CO2 emissions,
hence 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' (AGW). The 3 pillars on which they base
this claim are unscientific and quickly disproved.
3 pages, 10-minute read. References (in brackets) on p. 3
IPCC's Three Pillars
I. Earth's average surface temperature and man's CO2 emissions have
both risen since 1850, so CO2 must have caused the warming
Four disproofs ...
(1) What else has risen? The Sun's magnetic output, affecting cloudiness (Svensmark), more
than doubled from 1901 to 1991 (Lockwood), to its highest peak in 10,000 years (Higgs 1).
In those last 10,000 years ...
(2) simple visual cross-correlation shows changes in temperature lagged 60-160 years behind
solar-output changes, due to the ocean's vast heat capacity and slow mixing (Higgs 1, 2) &
(3) ... temperature and CO2 were uncorrelated, until their joint rise from the late 1800s.
(4) Warming since 1910 paused twice (Met. Office), for 30 years (1945-75) and 14 years
(1998-2012), unlike CO2's rise (NOAA; SeaLevel.info).
II. Global warming's continuance despite the Sun's weakening after
1991 absolves the Sun and incriminates CO2
This mismatch is simply due to the oceanic time-lag, currently about 60 years. Thus global
warming will continue (with ups and downs, mainly due to the Sun's 11-year cycles) until
around 2050, about 60 years after the Sun’s 1991 grand peak (Higgs 2).
Pillar II was asserted in IPCC's 2013 'Fifth Assessment Report', Chapter 10 (IPCC 1 p.887,
co-author Lockwood [see (1) above], citing 4 of his own papers). But IPPC already knew
about the lag, Chapter 3 having stated the "ocean’s huge heat capacity and slow circulation
lend it significant thermal inertia" (IPCC 2 p.266).
Pillar III. Sea level (SL) for the last few thousand years varied <25cm,
so the 30cm SL rise since 1850 proves abnormal warming by CO2
The 25 cm claim (only “medium confidence”; IPCC 3 p.385) is based on selected evidence
(Higgs 3) and on dismissal of the famed 1961 SL curve (Fairbridge; Wiki) with SL
oscillations of 2 to 5 metres in the last 6,000 years, confirmed by dozens of later geologists
worldwide, and lately with very strong archaeological support (Higgs 4, 5, 6).
1. That's it. That's all they have. Be surprised.
2. The Sun was by far the main driver of global temperature for the last 10,000 years.
3. CO2 is innocent; it has no climate effect; the simultaneous rise in temperature and
CO2 is pure accident; CO2's residual 'greenhouse effect' is effectively nil (Higgs 7, 8).
4. The IPCC urgently needs to consult geologists (Higgs 9, 10).
5. Global warming, by the Sun, will continue until about 2050 (Higgs 2).
6. Another Sun-driven large (about 3 metres) sea-level rise is predictable (Higgs 11).
References (all contributions by Higgs [me] are very brief)
Fairbridge 1961 classic sea-level curve, latest revision 1977, fig. 2c here ...
Higgs 1 2020 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340869622
Higgs 2 2020 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341078096
Higgs 3 2019 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336414520
Higgs 4 2020 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339875642
Higgs 5 2020 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338556345
Higgs 6 2017 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316601390
Higgs 7 2019 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803
Higgs 8 2020 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340869622
Higgs 9 2018 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331928229
Higgs 10 2019 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185
Higgs 11 2020 ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341597747
IPCC 1 2013 ...
IPCC 2 2013 ...
IPCC 3 2013 ...
Lockwood (Professor Michael Lockwood, Fellow of the Royal Society) 1999 ...
Meteorological Office UK 2020 ...
NOAA 2020 ... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html
SeaLevel.info 2020 ... https://sealevel.info/co2.html
Svensmark 2007 (google & YouTube him; breathtakingly elegant cosmic-ray link) ...
Wiki 2020 ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhodes_Fairbridge
Email me for copies of any the above, firstname.lastname@example.org
Please understand: we geologists are passionate environmentalists. Real pollution is
an entirely separate and deplorable issue, e.g. plastics, wood smoke, chemical spills
and especially vehicle emissions (diesel soot, nitrogen oxides, tire & brake dust).
CO2 is not a pollutant (far from it; Higgs 7).