Energy policy and public opinion: patterns, trends and future directions

Abstract

This article analyzes patterns and trends in U.S public opinion about energy policy to understand which types of policy approaches Americans support and the individual-level determinants that are associated with those preferences. Specifically, we study data from three long-running surveys series—the National Surveys on Energy and Environment, the Climate Change in the American Mind survey and the Gallup Poll Social Series—which collectively provide a vast array of questions on energy policy, ranging from limits on extraction to promotion of clean energy to restrictions on fossil fuel use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis finds strong and temporally stable support for policies that promote renewable energy technologies, as well as policies that prioritize environmental protection over energy extraction. We additionally find that partisanship is the most important determinant of Americans’ energy policy preferences and that there is an increasing divide between Democrats and Republicans on energy policy. Our analysis does not show that Americans prefer particular policy instruments, but we do find that support declines for policies when their costs are made explicit and that these declines in support are similar in magnitude for Democrats and Republicans. We conclude the paper with directions for future research.

Full text

Prog. Energy 2(2020) 032003 https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/ab9592
Progress in Energy
Energy policy and public opinion: patterns, trends and future
RECEIVED
19 January 2020
REVISED
21 April 2020
ACC EPT ED FOR PUB LICATI ON
21 May 2020
PUBLISHED
28 July 2020
directions
Parrish Bergquist1,4, David M Konisky2and John Kotcher3,5
1McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington DC, United States of America
2O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University, IN, United States of America
3Center for Climate Change Communication George Mason University, VA, United States of America
4Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, CT, United States of America
5Research Assistant Professor, Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University, VA, United States of America
E-mail: parrish.bergquist@yale.edu, dkonisky@indiana.edu and jkotcher@gmu.edu
Keywords: energy policy, climate change, public opinion, United States
Abstract
This article analyzes patterns and trends in U.S public opinion about energy policy to understand
which types of policy approaches Americans support and the individual-level determinants that
are associated with those preferences. Specifically, we study data from three long-running surveys
series—the National Surveys on Energy and Environment, the Climate Change in the American
Mind survey and the Gallup Poll Social Series—which collectively provide a vast array of questions
on energy policy, ranging from limits on extraction to promotion of clean energy to restrictions on
fossil fuel use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis finds strong and temporally stable
support for policies that promote renewable energy technologies, as well as policies that prioritize
environmental protection over energy extraction. We additionally find that partisanship is the most
important determinant of Americans’ energy policy preferences and that there is an increasing
divide between Democrats and Republicans on energy policy. Our analysis does not show that
Americans prefer particular policy instruments, but we do find that support declines for policies
when their costs are made explicit and that these declines in support are similar in magnitude for
Democrats and Republicans. We conclude the paper with directions for future research.
Introduction
An energy transition is underway across the world, as countries begin to shift their economies from reliance
on fossil fuels to cleaner, renewable energy sources. The adverse ecological and health effects of fossil fuel use
are well-established and provide reason enough for governments to hasten the transition to alternative
sources of energy. Recent scientific assessments about the urgency of climate change provide even more
impetus. According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to limit warming
to 1.5 ◦C, the world will need to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and
reach net zero emissions around 2050 (IPCC 2018). This will require drastically reducing fossil fuel
consumption and quickly deploying substitutes.
Despite the urgent need for action, the pace of the energy transition varies from country to country.
Scholars have argued that a country’s transition path depends on factors such as its resource endowment and
its specific economic, political and social circumstances (Aklin and Urpelainen 2018, Fouquet and Pearson
2012, Grubler, Wilson and Nemet 2016, Smil 2016, Sovacool 2016). An important factor shaping countries’
approaches to the energy transition is citizen demand. Citizens act as consumers and in democratic countries
as voters, and their preferences for different technologies can influence elected officials’ decisions about
which energy sources to promote (Ansolabehere and Konisky 2014, Karapin 2016, Druckman 2013). Yet,
despite the potential importance of public demand, there are surprisingly few studies in the scholarly
literature that explicitly study energy policy preferences. This is especially the case for the United States,
which is the context for this study.
To be sure, there is an extensive interdisciplinary literature studying Americans’ attitudes toward energy.
Some of this work dates back many decades, including seminal work in social psychology on perceptions of
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