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International Journal of Research in Finance and Management 2019; 2(2): 99-104
P
P-ISSN: 2617-5754
E-ISSN: 2617-5762
IJRFM 2019; 2(2): 99-104
Received: 19-05-2019
Accepted: 21-06-2019
Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tien
Saigon International
University, Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam
Dr. Bui Xuan Bien
Finance and Banking
University in Hanoi, Vietnam
Nguyen Thanh Vu
Nguyen Tat Thanh University,
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Nguyen Thanh Hung
Binh Duong University,
Vietnam
Correspondence
Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tien
Saigon International
University, Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam
Brexit and risks for the world economy
Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tien, Dr. Bui Xuan Bien, Nguyen Thanh Vu and
Nguyen Thanh Hung
Abstract
The event of the United Kingdom, a great power of the world, leaving the EU is gaining the attention
of the public. The people of this country have voted to choose the path that they think is best for their
country, but there are many unanimous views that Brexit increases the risks for the global economy. At
the same time, many EU member states as well as business partners suffer from certain effects.
Understanding the magnitude of the problem, the article addresses the Brexit concept, thereby
evaluating and analyzing its negative impacts on the global economy with the possible economic and
financial implications brought about by Brexit.
Keywords: Brexit, risk, world economy, EU
1. Introduction
The United Kingdom is a relatively isolated island nation from the rest of Europe throughout
its history. Even when European countries formed an alliance between European countries
after World War II, Britain was out of the game. England in turn refused to join the
European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1951 and then the European Economic
Community (EEC) in 1957. It was several years later, when the economies of France and
Germany recovered quickly and forming a strong alliance, the British authorities gradually
changed their views on joining the EEC. The British government applied to join the EEC in
1961, but was rejected twice by French President Charles de Gaulle in 1963 and 1967. It was
not until 1973 that England officially became a member of the EEC. In 1990, the UK joined
the European Monetary System (EMS) with the goal of stabilizing the fixed exchange rate
throughout the bloc. However, only two years later Britain announced its withdrawal from
the system, after the pound crisis. In 1995, the UK also refused to join the Schengen
Agreement on freedom of movement between member states and did not use the common
European currency. Following the global financial crisis and public debt in several European
countries, the UK refused to sign the 2011 EU-Fiscal and Budget Treaty to overcome some
of the country's own financial problems encountered. Since 2010, polls show that the British
public has had a split in leaving or staying in the European Union. In January 2013, Prime
Minister David Cameron pledged to hold a referendum if he won the 2015 general election.
Prior to the general election, a number of MPs from UK political parties including the Party
Conservatives and some other parties such as the British Independent Party (UKIP), the
British National Party had called for a referendum. The EU is an economic-political bloc of
28 countries, established after World War II to strengthen economic cooperation among its
members. But these lawmakers, however, argue that the EU has changed a lot since its
inception and expanded control over people's daily lives. In addition, a number of other
arguments include the idea that Britain was constrained by the EU with its business
regulations, huge membership fees that received little benefit. Despite opposing Brexit,
Prime Minister David Cameroon decided to agree for a referendum to take place.
2. Theoretical Framework
Up to now, there is no unified definition of risks, different schools and different authors give
different risk definitions. These definitions are diverse and plentiful but can be divided into
two major schools: the traditional school and the neutral school. According to the traditional
thinking, risk is the damage, loss, danger or factors related to danger, difficulty, or
uncertainty that can occur to humans.
International Journal of Research in Finance and Management http://www.allfinancejournal.com
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According to the neutralist school, risks are measurable
uncertainties. Risks are twofold: both positive and negative.
Risks can cause losses, losses, dangers, but also the risks
that can bring people opportunities [1].
Risk management is the process of approaching risk
scientifically, comprehensively, continuously and
systematically identifying, controlling, preventing and
minimizing losses, losses and adverse effects of risks and at
the same time potential to turn risks into opportunities for
success [1].
Globalization is a process of turning different regions,
communities of people from an isolated state, separate from
one another into a different state of substance, by
connecting together into an organic unity. Then, an event, a
phenomenon, a problem happening in this region, in this
community will affect and affect other regions and
communities on a worldwide scale.
Globalization contributes to the promotion and development
of economic as well as socio-economic sectors of each
country and the whole world through the process of market
expansion, trade and tax relief. Increasing production factors
such as capital (both fixed capital and human capital) and
science and technology are encouraged through the
liberalization of capital circulation, technology transfer, and
development of an effective global communication system,
lowering the costs of international transactions and
production costs. Learn experience of management
organization, economic development, science and
technology, job creation, awareness raising and living
standards of the people. Countries improve the quality of
infrastructure, environmental quality, improve the wages of
workers.
In addition to the positive effects, the benefits of
globalization also have some negative effects that need to be
limited. Globalization fades away, eroding the identity of
traditional local cultural values. Through the WTO,
developed countries are not willing to consume developing
countries' exports, making it difficult for developing
countries to participate in globalization. Developing
countries to speed up the process of industrialization,
exploitation and export of preliminarily processed mineral
resources, the prices of these commodities are increasingly
high, exported to highly developed countries. Low
technology and import of high technology equipment leads
to trade deficit. In the process of receiving aid, cooperative
investment, developing countries due to lack of experience
in organizing management, incomplete legal system and
failing to manage corruption, ineffective investment
projects. As a result, foreign debt has increased [2].
Trade protectionism is an economic term that refers to the
application of measures to protect the nation's goods and
services industry by raising standards such as quality,
hygiene, safety, labor, environment, origin or impose high
import tax rates on some commodities; used in trade
relations between countries. Trade protection is the intention
of some economists and policymakers, but it has certain
long-term effects on the nation's macro economy and the
global economy. These effects can include limited consumer
choices and they pay more for goods and services. A major
effect of trade protection is that consumers will have a
limited choice of quantity, quality, and type of product
because quotas are imposed on imported goods. Another
problem consumers will face is that they have to pay more
for limited quantities of goods, which can lead to a
significant increase in inflation. In general, global
competition is an important factor in keeping the prices of
many goods and providing consumers with the ability to
spend. Although protectionism is not a major cause of the
global economic recession, this is certainly a worrying
factor and can hinder overall growth. This is also reflected
in the political field [4].
Secessionism is the support of the separation of a country
that divides its culture, ethnicity, tribe, religion, race,
government or gender from a larger group. Although it often
refers to full political separatism, separatist groups may only
seek greater autonomy. While some critics may equate
separatism with religious division, racial segregation, or
sexism, most separatists argue that separatism follows the
choice is not the same as the division of government and can
serve useful purposes [5].
3. Research methodology
The first used methods of analysis and synthesis means
studying information collected from related textbooks,
books and newspapers, and summarizing it to have the most
general, objective and multi-dimensional view of brexit and
its effects on the international economy. In the current trend
of economic globalization, in order to ensure the sustainable
development of the business activities of nations, we must
be able to adapt and improve ourselves to cooperate,
integrate and catch opportunity in a timely manner. To do
so, the business community needs to consciously build its
own strong business culture. When integrating, we can
hardly compete with large-scale enterprises in terms of
capital, technology, price, talent, etc. So how do we build
our own competitive advantage? How do we stand out from
them? It is the business culture that is an important clue to
differentiate Vietnamese enterprises, create prestige,
reputation and vitality for businesses, maximize the capacity
of individuals and guide them toward the strategic goal of
business strategy, helping us to achieve success. Since then,
new businesses have been able to promote their role,
making an important contribution to the national policies of
the Party and the State in the cause of national
industrialization and modernization, deep integration into
the international economy.
The second used method of summarizing practices to make
ample clarification of theoretical issues is the collection of
actual data through business results reports, figures and
documents from experts. Then, all of them are summarized
to identify the common risks and causes of risks, the degree
of influence of risks, how other businesses prevent risks, the
successes and failures of other businesses from which to
draw lessons for their businesses. In fact, in the current
context of integration, many Vietnamese enterprises have
matured, sustained and developed strongly, but the main
reason is that these enterprises have been attaching great
importance to building a joint business culture. However, at
present, many leaders, businesses and entrepreneurs are not
aware of the role and motivation of business culture in
integration, so in the course of business, they have revealed
inadequacies and negative effects to the competitiveness of
enterprises, reducing the performance of businesses.
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4. Research Results and Discussion
4.1. Short-term Brexit impacts
4.1.1. Stock market
The focus of Europe in the second quarter was the
development of a UK referendum on June 23, 2016 on
whether the country would leave or remain in the European
Union. In the first session after the referendum, the global
stock market evaporated $ 2.08 trillion, the largest absolute
decline ever. European markets dropped the most, such as
Italy and Spain (over 12%); London (7.2%); Japanese
Nikkei (7.9%); S & P500 of the US (3.6%). After the
weekend, the major stock exchanges in the world continued
to decline, before recovering slightly afterwards. For both
sessions, the FTSE 250 index of the UK lost 13.65%, the
two stock exchanges in Italy and Spain also decreased by
15.9% and 14.0% respectively. Meanwhile, the US S&P
500 and Japan's Nikkei 225 also lost over 5% after two
sessions.
4.1.2. Forex market
On the foreign exchange market, the pound has depreciated
sharply against other major currencies such as Euro, USD or
Japanese Yen. At the same time, the Euro also depreciated
slightly against the USD. The Pound has been continuously
falling and establishing its lowest level in 31 years. By the
end of June 30, the GBP had depreciated 11.6% compared
to the time before the referendum. Meanwhile, EUR also
dropped by 3% in value against USD. Concerned about the
uncertain future of the UK and European economy in the
coming time, investors were looking for safe money and
other assets. The two currencies that are most interested in
at the moment are the USD and JPY. The Japanese Yen, in a
different direction, is considered the safest currency at the
moment. Even, this currency is still in an upward trend
compared to the value of the dollar.
4.1.3. Property market
In the asset market, gold price is constantly fluctuating due
to the increasing demand for investment in safe assets. In
the UK market, right after the Brexit result, gold price
increased by 3.8%. Gold price in the session on 4/7/2016
reached 1,348.8 USD / troy oz, up 9.3%. Gold price then
kept relatively stable, maintained at around 1,340 USD / oz
and only fluctuated within ± 2.2%. However, right after the
information about the Brexit launch time was confirmed by
the British Prime Minister, the asset market had a slight
fluctuation. Gold price on 4/10 2016 has decreased by 3.6%
to 1,268.0 USD / oz while the pound lost about 2%. Not
only gold and strong currencies, countries with high safety
levels such as the US, Switzerland, Japan or Germany were
also selected by investors during this time. Government
bond yields of these countries have dropped sharply after
the referendum. Even in Japan, Switzerland and Germany,
the yield for 10-year notes fell below 0%. Investors are
willing to pay for these governments to keep money.
4.2. Long term impacts
4.2.1. Immigration issues
The big controversial issue in the farewell between the UK
and EU concerns the influx of immigrants. Currently, the
UK receives more than 300,000 (net) immigrants each year,
including nearly 200,000 from the EU. According to
Woodford Fund (2016) [16], this number of immigrants helps
to increase about 0.5% of the annual labor force in the UK.
This helps promote economic growth without leading to a
rise in the domestic basic wage, thereby maintaining
inflation and interest rates at low levels.
However, many Britons do not. They argue that EU-
regulated immigrants reduce the amount of jobs and wages
of local people. Therefore, British immigration policy will
be one of the key factors in Brexit. The UK's application of
the policy of tightening immigration flows from the EU as
with other countries, if any, will greatly affect its economy:
+ In the short term, because the regulations cannot be
changed immediately, the number of immigrants to the UK
may increase massively. At the same time, those who have
been in the UK will find a way to stay longer because they
know it will be harder to come back after the new
immigration rules are set. The same is true for UK residents
currently immigrating to EU countries. Therefore, even
though the UK announced a tightening of the immigration
stream after Brexit, the net influx will only change slightly
in the short term.
+ However, in the long term, net immigration from the EU
to the UK will almost certainly decrease when the tightening
immigration policy takes effect. Woodford Fund (2016) [16]
thinks that this brings both positive and negative aspects for
the British economy. A declining labor force leads to
pressure to raise wages and eventually to inflation.
However, the UK government may impose new criteria on
migrant workers from the EU, especially those related to
labor quality. The new influx of immigrants is likely to be
of better quality and help increase the labor productivity of
the economy
4.2.2. International commerce
Trade is said to be the second aspect to be directly affected
after Brexit took place. According to 2015 data, 47.3% of
UK exports to EU countries 28 and 55.1% of imports from
these countries. In addition, about 13.6% of UK goods
export to FTAs with the EU (Global Counsel, 2015). In
contrast, the volume of EU exports and imports to the UK
accounts for a relatively modest share of total EU trade.
This means that if Brexit takes place, the UK will be more
affected. Many hypotheses stated that the UK will face the
risk of renegotiating free trade agreements with the EU and
countries with FTAs with the EU. However, within 2 years
of negotiations, the UK still had full rights as a member of
the EU. Most quantitative studies provide three main
scenarios for the UK-EU post-Brexit relationship
(Woodford Fund, 2016) [16], (Schoof, Petersen, Aichele, &
Felbermayr, 2015) [13].
+ Norway's scenario: the current UK scenario is quite
similar to Norway, outside the EU but still participating in
the EU Economic Area (EEA). Therefore, the UK
commodity market is still a single market within the EU and
is not influenced by Brexit. However, this scenario is very
unlikely.
+ Swiss scenario: UK will be similar to Switzerland, not in
EEA but negotiating bilateral agreements with the EU.
Under this scenario, a number of issues both sides are
affected by, such as additional trade costs, non-trade
barriers; rules of origin. However, in the long term, trade
between the two sides will still be guaranteed in the long
International Journal of Research in Finance and Management http://www.allfinancejournal.com
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term. This scenario is relatively reasonable but will take a
long time to negotiate.
+ Worst case, the WTO scenario: assuming that the UK
failed to negotiate FTAs with the EU, trade between the two
sides would apply the most favored nation (MNF) rule in
the WTO. Accordingly, the UK will treat the EU like non-
EU countries and no FTAs with the UK. This has a
significant impact on trade between the UK and the EU.
However, Woodford Fund (2016) [16] also believes that the
UK will have the opportunity to negotiate separate FTAs
with non-EU countries. If taking advantage of opportunities,
the impact of Brexit will be relatively small, even more
beneficial to the UK in the long run. Egert and Gal (2016)
show that trade openness can decrease by 4 percentage
points after 10 years.
4.2.3. Foreign Direct Investment
According to official figures from the UK National
Statistics Office (ONS), the accumulated FDI into the UK
reached GBP 1,034.3 billion. In particular, investment
capital from EU countries reached 495.8 billion GBP,
accounting for 47.9% of total investment capital. However,
the annual amount of FDI from the EU to the UK has
dropped sharply in recent years, replaced by investment
from non-EU countries. The ratio of FDI from EU countries
to the UK has decreased from an average of 50.1% in the
period of 2005-2009 to 48.4% in the period of 2010-2014.
4.2.4. Public area
Public finance is also one of the reasons why many people
in the UK choose to leave the EU. In principle, the EU is not
allowed to collect taxes directly, but through donations from
member governments. According to the data, the British
government contributed £ 18.8 billion, or 1% of the
country's GDP, in 2014. Although much of this money is
spent in the UK, Brexit supporters still want The British
government kept and decided to spend the money. Britain's
exit from the EU will save the country an annual
contribution to the EU budget. London have identified two
factors affecting the UK's public sector:
- Positive technical factor: In the contribution of GBP
18.8 billion, the EU refunds GBP 4.4 billion and spends
8.7 billion GBP on services in the UK. Therefore, the
UK has to contribute 5.7 billion GBP, equivalent to
0.3% of GDP and 100 million GBP / week. Emmerson
et al. (2016) [10] suggested that UK public finance
would improve by about 8 billion GBP / year, thereby
increasing funding for spending, reducing taxes and
reducing budget deficits. On the other hand, the UK's
contribution to the EU budget also serves the trade
agreement in the EEA, which is said to be around 4
billion GBP (assuming the amount Norway is paying).
Therefore, leaving the EEA could affect the UK's
ability to access EU financial services market, thereby
affecting the UK economy.
- National income factor: the public financial sector may
also be affected through the national income effect.
This area can only benefit if Brexit has no negative
effects on national income. According to Emmerson et
al. (2016) [10], if the UK economy only drops by 0.6
percentage points, this impact will overwhelm the
positive public financial impact of technical factors.
However, the impact of Brexit on trade agreements,
immigration policies and thereby on the UK economy is
still a big question mark.
4.2.5. Economic growth
Based on possible scenarios, many studies have been done
to assess the impact of Brexit on UK economic growth in
the long term. The effect on GDP can be through major
channels including trade, budget, investment, migration, UK
and EU regulations. Economic growth of the Eurozone has
slowed down by only 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019
after reaching 0.4% in the previous quarter. European
statistics (Eurostat), published on August 14, the number of
employed people also increased only 0.2% in both Eurozone
countries in particular and the European Union (EU) in
general, both decreased compared to the increase in general
of 0.4 of the first quarter of 2019. In June, industrial
production seasonally adjusted in Eurozone and EU both
decreased, at 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to
June last year, this index in Eurozone and EU also has
decreased by 2.6% and 1.9% respectively.
The adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) of the 28
member countries of the European Union (EU) also
increased by only 0.2% in the second quarter, down from
0.5% in the first 3 months. Economic experts evaluate these
indicators showing that the European economy in general is
on the decline. According to a new report published by the
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(UNCTAD), a sudden divorce between London and the EU
will significantly affect the conditions for access to the UK
market for both developed and developing countries. If hard
Brexit occurs, EU exports to the UK could fall by nearly US
$ 34.5 billion.
In the "Brexit no agreement" scenario, that is, there will be
no transition period to negotiate bilateral agreements for the
future, Turkey is said to be second to the EU in the list of
economies losing, with the value of exporting goods to the
UK falling by about US $ 2.4 billion. Next is South Korea,
Norway, Iceland, Cambodia and Switzerland.
According to a study published by the IWH Research
Institute (Germany), about 612,000 jobs could be threatened
in more than 43 countries due to the decline in European
goods exports. IWH estimates that UK imports of EU goods
could fall by 25%. The study says nearly 179,000 jobs in the
EU will be directly affected by the decline in imports and
433,000 indirect jobs will be threatened if including in the
EU and other countries. The inevitable consequences of
Brexit will also have many negative impacts on the tourism
industry. If there is no agreement between the UK and
Europe, customs barriers will be restored and Brits who
want to go to Europe may need to apply for an international
driving license. In general, the ability to change the rules as
well as the travel conditions will affect the decision of
travelers to the UK.
5. Conclusion and Recommendation
5.1. Conclusion
The UK referendum ended with victory on the side that
favored leaving the EU. The new government of Prime
Minister Theresa May has also confirmed that the time to
launch Brexit is before Q2 2017. This event has a significant
impact on the UK economy as well as the global economy.
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In the short term, uncertainty about the future of Anglo-EU
relations can impact the market through channels: financial
markets; Forex market; and asset markets such as
government bonds and gold. The obvious fluctuations are
the simultaneous decline in major global stock exchanges,
the pound devaluated sharply against the USD and other
strong currencies, the interest rates of government bonds of
some major countries plummeted and the price of gold
increased due to increased demand for these assets.
However, these effects were temporary and the market
quickly stabilized afterwards. In the long term, the UK
economy is expected to face more disadvantages due to the
impact of immigration and labor, international trade and
foreign direct investment. With Vietnam, we believe that
Brexit will not have much impact on the economy in the
short and long term, when the economic relationship
between Vietnam and the UK is not really big in relation to
partners. Other like USA, China or Japan.
5.2. Recommendations
To solve the problem caused by brexit and limit risks to the
global economy as well as countries in the region, the
following issues need to be done:
- It is necessary to sit down to discuss for a short time to
answer UK and EU to find the best way to bring mutual
benefits.
- Find security net alternatives to set up customs
networks to maintain open goods stores and circulation.
- Prepare an adaptive mentality and a courageous
response to changes and negative fluctuations
- Develop a risk management plan and roadmap: identify,
control, and deal with bad situations, incidents that can
seriously affect growth, recession or even bankruptcy of
the business.
- Review business strategies, adjusting business plans
appropriately in the new situation.
5.2.1 For Vietnam
- The UK's leaving the EU will make Vietnam's import
and export difficult. In addition, the bilateral trade
negotiations between the two countries will create new
conditions for Vietnam to grasp this. We need to
strengthen the negotiation of these agreements wisely
and flexibly.
- Import-export and investment, Vietnam needs to find
new markets to reduce the decline of import-export and
investment activities from the UK to the EU.
- In terms of currency, after Brexit, the value of the
pound and the euro are devalued and maybe their
position may decline relative to other currencies. In that
correlation, the State Bank ( The central bank applied
the central exchange rate for the overview of VND,
which will increase the price, leading to an increase in
Vietnam's export prices.
- Before this Brexit event, Vietnam needs to focus on
building appropriate adaptive scenarios (especially on
exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves ...), so people
should calmly wait for results, avoid emotional
reactions. calculation and crowd psychology,
proactively preventing risks on the double exchange
rate between the devaluation of the Euro and
appreciation of Yen and USD.
5.2.2. For the World
- First of all, it is expected that when dealing, trading
with countries in the European Union will face a
situation of higher costs and slower procedures. Fees
for using bank cards between the UK and the EU may
also increase. Especially online purchases will be more
expensive, as goods purchased from the European
Union will no longer enjoy low value added tax.
- Second, businesses doing business with the EU will
have higher costs due to increased customs duties and
more papers. Therefore, the government recommends
businesses to renegotiate contracts to accommodate
changes in customs procedures and taxes.
- The third is about financial services. The world
recommends customers in countries of the European
Economic Space that they will not be able to rely on the
services of an investment bank located in the UK. To
avoid operational turmoil, many UK investment banks
have set up branches in the European Union.
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