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SYSTEMATIC REVIEW
published: 15 May 2020
doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2020.00064
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 1May 2020 | Volume 4 | Article 64
Edited by:
Alberto Sanz Cobeña,
Centro de Estudios e Investigación
para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y
Medioambientales (CEIGRAM), Spain
Reviewed by:
Benjamin Sanchez Gimeno,
Instituto Nacional de Investigación y
Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria
(INIA), Spain
Libère Nkurunziza,
Swedish University of Agricultural
Sciences, Sweden
*Correspondence:
Elena Mihailescu
elenacopenh@gmail.com
Specialty section:
This article was submitted to
Climate-Smart Food Systems,
a section of the journal
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
Received: 09 December 2019
Accepted: 17 April 2020
Published: 15 May 2020
Citation:
Mihailescu E and Bruno Soares M
(2020) The Influence of Climate on
Agricultural Decisions for Three
European Crops: A Systematic
Review.
Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 4:64.
doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2020.00064
The Influence of Climate on
Agricultural Decisions for Three
European Crops: A Systematic
Review
Elena Mihailescu*and Marta Bruno Soares
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
The severity and uneven distribution of the expected climate change impacts across
climate-sensitive agricultural areas, and the cropping systems operated within, call for
identification, and effective management of these impacts. The climate services have
the potential to help identifying and adequately addressing the expected changes in
climate and their impacts on agricultural production systems. However, the development
of effective climate services is conditioned by the need to clearly understand the critical
decisions that underpin end-users’ activities and how climate information can support
those decision-making processes. This paper reviews and identifies the main decisions
linked to key climate change impacts on the cropping systems of interest—olive,
grape and durum wheat—in order to inform the development of climate services for
these crops in the future. Our review results indicate two types of key findings: (i)
the most common types of decisions across the three cropping systems address the
increase in temperature, variability, and uneven distribution of rainfall, occurrence of
extreme events, and increased solar radiation; (ii) the most common decisions are
likely to be affected by an increase in temperature above the maximum supported
by the three crops, or in combination with other impacting climate changes. These
decisions mainly relate to irrigation and other water stress reducing measures (olive,
durum wheat), choice of varieties (grape, durum wheat), clones and rootstocks (grape),
training system and vine load (olive, grape), canopy management (olive, grape), change
in planting/sowing and harvest date (olive, durum wheat), pest and disease management
(grape), allocation/choice of cultivation area (grape, durum wheat), use of decision
support tools (grape), and crop insurance (durum wheat). In these decision-making
contexts, the timely availability of climate information on temperature increase and rainfall
variability can be used for developing climate services to effectively support the affected
decisions. Although this paper does not provide an exhaustive analysis, the entry points
identified can be considered as starting points for informing the development of climate
services to further support the adjustment of decision making for the identified olive,
grape, and durum wheat cropping systems, as well as similar decision-making contexts
beyond those identified here.
Keywords: agricultural decisions, olive, durum wheat, grape, Europe, climate impacts
Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
INTRODUCTION
The impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector
are intrinsically complex due not only to physical aspects,
(e.g., climate conditions) but also socio-economic factors (e.g.,
cropping decisions; Iglesias et al., 2012). The dependence of
agricultural practices as well as the production and quality of
crops on weather and climate conditions make the agriculture
sector particularly susceptible to climate change impacts
(Ciscar et al., 2011; Lorencová et al., 2013; Giannakis and
Bruggeman, 2015). Among the most impacting weather and
climate conditions, the temperature is expected to register
disparate increases across south-western (up to 5.1◦C) and
northern European areas (2.1◦C) with large seasonal temperature
differences across eastern European areas (between 0.5 and
2.5◦C) (Malheiro et al., 2010; Iglesias et al., 2012; Salazar-Parra
et al., 2018). The predicted pattern of annual mean rainfall,
is expected to vary largely across the northern and southern
European areas (Mechler et al., 2010), with differing increases
and uneven distribution during the year across most of the
northern European regions (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2016) and
differing decrease, across the lower latitudes, in most of the
central (Heumesser et al., 2012) and the southern regions
(Malheiro et al., 2010; Iglesias et al., 2012) The increase in
frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as
drought, is expected in parts of the Mediterranean area (Iberian
Peninsula, France, Italy, and Albania) as well as in parts of
south-eastern Europe and central Europe and even in some
humid areas, such as Northwest France and Southeast England,
(Giannakis and Bruggeman, 2015; Carrão et al., 2016; European
Environment Agency, 2017).
The Mediterranean Basin is considered as a hot spot for
climate change (and associated socio-economic) impacts in
Europe with cumulative and unevenly distributed impacts
becoming increasingly severe (Giorgi, 2006; Guiot and Cramer,
2016). These impacts include increased frequency of extreme
meteorological events (particularly drought), increased inter-
annual climate variation, sea level rise, increased soil salinity and
coastal erosion (Grasso and Feola, 2012; Cramer et al., 2019).
Among these, a particularly severe impact is the increase in
water stress (i.e., the ratio between actual and maximum plant
transpiration; Fraga et al., 2016) due to increasingly frequent
water shortages (Københavns Universitet, 2013; Dubrovský et al.,
2014). Additionally, a temperature increase in the last 100 years
and an expected increase of up to 2◦C in the coming years
together with a predominantly negative trend in precipitation in
the last 50 years across the region; a decrease and variation of
rainfall in the coming years; and limited ground water resources
will have a direct impact on the occurrence of more frequent
and severe droughts and overall accelerated drier conditions
(Dubrovský et al., 2014; Ponti et al., 2014; Mereu et al.,
2016; European Environment Agency, 2017). Furthermore, the
coupled effect of warming and drought is expected to lead to a
general increase in aridity and subsequent desertification of many
Mediterranean areas (Cramer et al., 2019).
Of particular importance in the Mediterranean region are
three key staple crops—olive, grape and durum wheat—which are
of utmost cultural, economic and ecological importance, not only
as they are critical to the Mediterranean diet, but also critical food
commodities in the global market (Ponti et al., 2014; Eurostat,
2020).
The most common climate information required to inform
agricultural planning and decision-making relates to temperature
and water availability due to the strong influence that
these two factors have on crop growth and development
(World Meteorological Organization, 2012; Food Agriculture
Organization, 2019). However, for effective planning and farming
decisions making, it is critical that the necessary climate
information is made available in a timely manner (Table 1).
In this context, the potential of climate services to provide
“(. . . ) people and organizations with timely, tailored climate-
related knowledge and information that they can use to reduce
climate-related losses” (Vaughan and Dessai, 2014, p. 588) can
be critical to help identifying and adequately addressing the
expected changes in climate and their impacts on European
agriculture. Effective climate services are based on a clear
understanding of the decision-making context and the key
decisions whose services are expected to help inform and enhance
(Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Bruno Soares et al., 2018a; Vincent
et al., 2018). As such, it is critical to understand the range
of aspects affecting the critical decisions that underpin end-
users activities and how climate information can be provided to
support and enhance those decision-making processes. In the
agricultural sector, these aspects often include the level of risk
aversion (e.g., the perception of the influence of the climatic
conditions on crop production), the production and profit
objectives, and the level of knowledge and access to technical
advice, all of which influence, to different extents, the decisions
made to manage the expected impacts of climate change on
various aspects of crop production (Bert et al., 2006).
To date, there is limited understanding of the linkages between
expected climate change impacts and key agricultural-related
decisions for the olive, grape, and durum wheat cropping
systems. Such knowledge can help enhance those key decisions
by supporting the development of climate services that are able to
adequately provide the climate information required to address
future climate change.
TABLE 1 | Agricultural decisions at a range of temporal scales.
Farming decision type Frequency (years)
Logistics (e.g., scheduling of planting/harvest
operations)
Intra-seasonal (<0.2)
Tactical crop management (e.g., fertilizer/pesticide use) Intra-seasonal (<0.2–0.5)
Crop choice (e.g., wheat or chickpeas) or herd
management
Seasonal (0.5–1.0)
Crop rotations (e.g., winter or summer crops) Annual/bi-annual (1–2)
Crop industry (e.g., grain or cotton; native or improved
pastures)
Decadal (10)
Agricultural industry (e.g., crops or pastures) Inter-decadal (10–20)
Land use (e.g., agriculture or natural systems) Multi-decadal (>20)
Source: Food Agriculture Organization (2019).
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 2May 2020 | Volume 4 | Article 64
Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
The aim of this paper is therefore to review and identify the
main decisions linked (either explicit or implicit) to key climate
change impacts on the cropping systems of interest—olive, grape
and durum wheat—in order to inform the development of
climate services and other decision-support tools for these crops
in the future.
METHODS
To pursue the analysis of the climate change impacts and key
agricultural decisions in the three crops—olive, grape and durum
wheat—we conducted a systematic literature review. This allowed
us to review relevant literature systematically according to clearly
formulated objectives and specific eligibility criteria (Ford et al.,
2011). Our review followed the protocol for systematic reviews
developed for social (Maki et al., 2018) and health sciences
(Li et al., 2015; Singh, 2017) which included the following
stages: search eligibility criteria, search results screening and data
abstraction, risk bias assessment, and data synthesis and analysis.
A detailed description of the protocol, as well as the eligibility
criteria used to screen the literature, are covered in Appendix A.
The initial search retrieved 1,753 peer-reviewed articles and
gray literature documents. The titles, abstracts and keywords
of the search results were screened according to the eligibility
criteria developed (see Appendix A). Following from this initial
screening process, 80 documents (including both peer-reviewed
and gray literature) were selected for the data abstraction phase.
The overall limited number of retained studies can be understood
as room for more research linking expected climate change
impacts and key agricultural-related decisions for the olive, grape,
and durum wheat cropping systems.
The literature was coded using NVIVO (New QSR
International Pty Ltd, 2014) and a cluster analysis was performed
on the NVIVO nodes to help us identify common climate change
impacts and climate-related decisions across the three cropping
systems of interest to this study.
It is important to clarify that the key decisions identified
within the three crops under analysis were, in some instances,
retrieved from different sources from those identifying the
climate change impacts since in general, climate change impacts
tend to be examined and reported separately from the key
decisions that are affected by such impacts. In such instances,
we made certain assumptions based on both the literature on
agricultural-related decisions and activities as well as based
on our expertise in the field in order to implicitly link the
potential climate change impacts and how that may affect existing
decisions on the ground.
To identify decision areas which could be
supported/enhanced by climate services across similar climatic
conditions, we identified locations situated at very similar
latitudes to the ones in the reviewed studies and prone to similar
expected impacts of climate change. The similar latitudes have
been associated with annual temperature analogs, which can
be used to better understand the challenges and opportunities
that agricultural decision makers may face in the future by
comparing the existing crop choices, cropping techniques, and
procedures with those currently employed to manage the crops
cultivated in climate analog locations. These climate analogs can
be contextualized to provide practical, usable information about
decision makers in different land use sectors managed within the
context of their climate (Dunn et al., 2019). However, there were
no climate analogs identified for annual rainfall, which limits
the identification of types of decisions that can be informed by
tailored climate services across similar latitudes.
For the identification of temperature analog locations, the
latitude values for the reviewed specific study locations are
indicated in the tables including the findings for the olive,
grape, and durum wheat cropping systems. Moreover, because
topography affects the meso-climate of each location (Dunn et al.,
2019), the reviewed study locations have been divided into higher
and lower areas.
Therefore, across the three cropping systems, the study
locations were separated between “southern areas and lower
latitudes of northern areas” and “northern areas and higher
latitudes of southern areas.” The extended tables, including all
study locations for all the three cropping systems, are presented
in Appendix B and illustrated in Figure 1.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Linking Climate Change Impacts to
Agricultural Decisions: Olive, Grape and
Durum Wheat Cropping Systems
Changes in Temperature
Among the identified impacts, the most affecting one relates to
the uneven increase of temperature during the cropping season.
This affects the identified decisions across the olive, grape and
durum wheat cropping systems, as determined by the expected
impacts on the corresponding crops.
Table 2 presents the main expected changes in climate,
their potential impacts and decisions that are expected to be
affected across the olive, grape and durum wheat cropping
systems (Appendix B includes the expected climatic changes,
their impacts, affected decisions and study locations, for the three
cropping systems).
For the olive and grape cropping systems, the identified types
of decisions follow the southward and northward trends in
the manifestation of the identified impacts of expected changes
in climate.
For the olive cropping systems located in the southern
areas/lower latitudes, the uneven increase in temperature affects
the decisions addressing the water stress, altered development
and phenology, yield, cultivation areas, variable incidence of
pests and diseases, and occurrence of extreme events. In
northern areas/higher latitudes, the decrease in temperature
affects the decisions addressing the altered suitability of
cultivation areas (Appendix B). However, these decisions are
influenced by other factors besides the impacts of climate
change on crops. For example, the decisions regarding the
expected changes in olive yield are largely influenced at the
local scale by aspects such as olive tree varieties, age structure,
agronomic practices, and occurrence of pest and diseases,
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 3May 2020 | Volume 4 | Article 64
Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
FIGURE 1 | PRISMA flow diagram systematic review detailing the database searches, the number of abstracts screened and the full texts retrieved.
as they can affect the levels and variability of olive yields
(Ponti et al., 2014).
The grape and wine producing areas have been delimited
by the 12–13◦C (lower threshold) and the 22–24◦C (upper
threshold) isotherm limits of the average growing season
temperature which corresponds to latitudes between 30 to 50◦N
and 30◦to 40◦S. Geographically speaking, for Europe, the lower
limit is the south of London, United Kingdom, and the upper
limit includes the Euro-Mediterranean countries (Schultz and
Jones, 2010). However, both of these limits can highly vary in the
context of uneven increases of temperature across the grape and
wine producing areas (Schultz, 2016).
For the grape cropping systems located in the southern
areas/lower latitudes, the increase in temperature affects the
decisions mainly addressing the altered phenology, berry
development, and grape biochemistry of the red varieties,
increased incidence of pests and diseases, altered suitability of
grape varieties and of cultivation areas. In northern areas/higher
latitudes, the increase in temperature affects the decisions
mainly addressing the altered biochemistry and suitability
of the white grape varieties (Appendix B). However, some
of these decisions are influenced by other factors besides
the impacts of climate change on grapes. For example, the
changes in, and decisions regarding the, grape biochemistry
are also affected by other factors such as increased solar
radiation, adjusted viticultural techniques, and longer “hangtime”
(Van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016).
Due to the different crop (olive, grape) responses to
the expected impacts of climate change, there have been
identified very few common decisions including: canopy
management, training techniques, and phytosanitary treatments,
for the southern areas/lower latitudes, and choice of plantation
settlement for the northern areas/higher latitudes (Appendix B).
The different decisions for the olive and grape cropping
systems, mainly for the southern areas/lower latitudes, include
irrigation and water stress reducing measures (careful control
of weeds, low plant density, adequate intensity of pruning)
(olive), rescheduled planting dates (olive), development of skills
to quantify climate impacts (olive), abandon of farms at risk
(olive), use of late ripening and warm climate clones (grape) and
of decision support tools (grape) (Appendix B). However, the
effectiveness of irrigation—as one of the main affected decisions
for the olive cropping system—has been debated. Some authors
stress that under increasing temperature conditions, an increased
evapotranspiration rate requires a substantial increase in the
amount of water needed for irrigation (Iglesias et al., 2010) which
may make the olive production sector compete with other local
water demanding sectors. One way to prevent this to happen
would be to considerably reduce the volume of irrigation water
during the stone hardening stage, when the olive fruit is less
sensitive to water stress, and when a reduction in the seasonal
volume of irrigation water does not negatively affect the yield
levels (Tombesi et al., 2007).
Other decisions have been influenced by other factors. For
example, the decision relating to abandon of farms at risk was
valid in cases of severe pest infestation and loss of production
(Ponti et al., 2014). The decision regarding the use of clones of
traditional cultivars is largely affected by the compliance with
existing regulations (Resco et al., 2016) for each grape and wine
producing country.
For the durum wheat cropping systems, the identified
decisions do not follow as clear regional trends as for the other
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Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
TABLE 2 | Expected changes in climate, its impacts, and key decisions affecting olive, grape, and durum wheat crops.
Expected changes in
climate
Expected impacts Key decisions affected Crop
Increase in temperature (in
humid conditions)
Overall increase in pest and diseases’ incidence (Mozell and
Thach, 2014; Ponti et al., 2018)
Adequate phytosanitary treatments (Rossi et al., 2014) Grape
Increased incidence of downy mildew (Bois et al., 2017)
Increased incidence of European grapevine moth (central
and eastern Europe) (Bois et al., 2017)
Increased incidence of pests and pathogens originating from
warmer climates (Koch and Oehl, 2018)
Cultural practices (Rossi et al., 2014)
Use of decision support tools (Horta SRL, 2012; Rossi et al.,
2014)
Uneven increase in
temperature
Variable yield (Gonzalez-Zeas et al., 2014) Supplemental irrigation (Iglesias et al., 2012; Gonzalez-Zeas
et al., 2014)
Durum wheat
(Coscarelli et al., 2016) Supplemental nitrogen fertilization (Iglesias et al., 2012)
Crop insurance (Gonzalez-Zeas et al., 2014)
Improve soil moisture retention capacity (Gonzalez-Zeas
et al., 2014)
Shift crops from vulnerable areas (Gonzalez-Zeas et al.,
2014)
Shift in sowing date (Iglesias et al., 2012)
Highly variable yields (Iglesias et al., 2010; Ponti et al., 2014) Abandon of farms at risk (Ponti et al., 2014) Olive
Settling olive orchards on hill slopes (Tombesi et al., 2007)
Variable levels of incidence of pests and diseases (Ponti
et al., 2014)
Pathogen treatments; Protection of
pests’ natural enemies; Choice of pest
resistant olive
Cultivars (Tombesi et al., 2007; Proietti and Regni, 2018)
Decrease in annual rainfall Alteration of cultivation areas (Ronchail et al., 2014) Shift in crops (Ronchail et al., 2014)
Decrease in summer
rainfall
Earlier maturation (Cook and Wolkovich, 2016) Use of drought resistant rootstocks (Van Leeuwen and
Darriet, 2016)
Grape
Decrease in summer and
autumn rainfall
Decreased suitability of
cultivation areas (Rothamstead Research Limited, 2009;
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, 2015)
Earlier harvest date (Proietti and Regni, 2018) Durum Wheat
Occurrence of prolonged
water stress/drought
Decrease in the ratio of di-/tri-hydroxylated anthocyanins
(color of red cultivars) (Bobeica et al., 2015)
Deficit irrigation techniques (Mozell and Thach, 2014) Grape
Irrigation (Malheiro et al., 2010)
Decreased thiol concentration
(aroma of white cultivars) (Schultz, 2016)
Anti-transpirant combined
with defoliation treatments (Institut National de la Recherche
Agronomique, 2016)
Reduced yield-south-east Europe (Malheiro et al., 2010;
Vrši ˇ
c and Vodovnik, 2012)
Settle vineyards on soils with moderate soil-water-holding
capacity (Van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016)
Reduced yield - Mediterranean areas (Fraga et al., 2016;
Fraga and Santos, 2017; Ponti et al., 2018)
Use of drought resistant varieties (Københavns Universitet,
2013; Sima et al., 2015)
Durum wheat
Reduced leaf elongation rate (Institut National de la
Recherche Agronomique, 2015)
Irrigation (Gonzalez-Zeas et al., 2014)
Decrease in yield (Musolino et al., 2018; Kahiluoto et al.,
2019; Roselló et al., 2019)
Increased genetic diversity (Kahiluoto et al., 2019; Roselló
et al., 2019)
Crop insurance (Gonzalez-Zeas et al., 2014)
2 cropping systems, because the production of durum wheat in
Europe is mainly concentrated in a few Mediterranean countries
(Italy, Spain, France, Macedonia, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, and
Malta), all of which have similar climatic conditions (Ventrella
et al., 2012; Ranieri, 2015; Moriondo et al., 2016). In these areas,
the yield response indicates declining resilience to increasing
temperatures, potentially due to continuously homogenizing and
declining cultivars or genetic pool (Kahiluoto et al., 2019; Roselló
et al., 2019).
The common decisions for durum wheat along with olive
and grape cropping systems include irrigation (olive), use of
drought resistant varieties (grape), and shifting the sowing date
(olive). Different decisions for durum wheat cropping systems
include supplemental nitrogen fertilization and crop insurance,
increased genetic diversity. The fertilization is required because,
under increasing temperature conditions, the general decrease
in durum wheat productivity is caused by the shortening of the
growing period with subsequent negative effects on the grain
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Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
filling (Iglesias et al., 2012). The crop insurance is mainly chosen
by bigger farmers (Sima et al., 2015).
To sum up, the common decisions for the southern areas
(and south-eastern, for grape cropping system)/lower latitudes
mainly address the impacts of water and heat stress, for all the
three cropping systems. For the northern areas/higher latitudes,
the affected decisions mainly address the impacts of extreme
events (olive), and other climate-related impacts such as the shifts
in traditional varieties, the reduction of white grape and wine
quality, and the “import” of pests and diseases from the warmer
climates, for grape cropping systems.
Decrease and Variability of Rainfall
Another identified impact of climate change is the uneven
decrease and rainfall distribution pattern during the cropping
year, which affects differently the operationality of the three
cropping systems.
For the olive cropping systems in the southern areas/lower
latitudes, the affected decisions are similar to some of the
decisions for the impacts of increased temperature in the same
areas (irrigation and water stress reducing measures, shift in
crops). However, as olive tree has reduced water requirements,
it can be used as an alternative to crops which exhibit a higher
sensitivity to climate change, as is the case for grapevine (Migliore
et al., 2019). The decision regarding the shift in crops was also
influenced by a drop in the cereal market price determining a
shift from cereals (less resistant to water stress) to olive trees
(known as being tolerant to dry conditions) (Ronchail et al., 2014)
(Appendix B).
For the grape cropping systems in the southern areas/lower
latitudes, the affected decisions are more variate than for the
olive cropping system, including irrigation, training techniques,
management of soil conditions, canopy management, use of
drought resistant rootstocks (Appendix B). These decisions are
critical where increasingly severe dry conditions are expected,
such as across the wine regions in south-eastern Europe (Vršiˇ
c
and Vodovnik, 2012), across some of the Mediterranean areas
(e.g., southern Iberia, Emilia Romagna and Lombardy in Italy
and along the Aegean Sea; Malheiro et al., 2010; Fraga et al., 2016;
Fraga and Santos, 2017), as well as in central Europe, particularly
during summer (Heumesser et al., 2012). Differently, in the
northern areas/higher latitudes, the reduced rainfall coupled with
increased temperature trigger the “import” of some diseases
(fan leaf and leaf roll-associated viruses) from warmer climate.
In these areas, the most common decisions identified relate to
adequate phytosanitary treatments, cultural practices (pruning,
burning of infested organs, tillage and hoeing control soil-
borne insects), and the use of decision support tools (vite.net;
Rossi et al., 2014 and MODEM_IVM DSS; Horta SRL, 2012)
(Appendix B).
The decisions for the durum wheat cropping systems
are similar to the ones addressing the impacts of increased
temperature. These decisions are critical in the durum wheat
cultivation areas at increasing risk in terms of their climatic
suitability due to: (i) increasingly frequent water shortages
(Københavns Universitet, 2013; Dubrovský et al., 2014) and (ii)
a decrease and variation of rainfall and limited ground water
resources (Fraga et al., 2016). Additional to the increasingly
dry conditions, the decreasing genetic potential of durum wheat
varieties is being emphasized as another important contributor to
decreasing and variable durum wheat yields. Therefore, measures
like increasing the genetic diversity of durum wheat varieties are
gaining increasing attention (Moriondo et al., 2016; Kahiluoto
et al., 2019; Roselló et al., 2019).
To sum up, the only common decisions for the three cropping
systems relate to different irrigation techniques and water stress
reducing measures adjusted to the specificity of each cropping
system and local context.
Occurrence of Prolonged and More Frequent
Extreme Events
For the olive cropping systems located in the northern
areas/higher latitudes, the identified extreme events include
frequent late spring and early autumn frost, severe winds,
increase in the hail amount and frequency. The affected decisions
include changing the harvest date, choice of the plantation
settlement, and phytosanitary treatments (Appendix B). In the
southern areas/lower latitudes, the impacts of the occurrence of
prolonged/repeated water deficit, the affected decisions relate to
specific irrigation techniques (Appendix B).
For the grape cropping systems in the southern areas/lower
latitudes and the durum wheat systems, the main expected
extreme event is the occurrence of prolonged water
stress/drought. The affected decisions are similar to the
ones discussed for the decrease in rainfall (Appendix B).
For the grape cropping systems in the northern areas/higher
latitudes, the increased solar insolation may contribute to
increased suitability of the northern grape cultivation areas, on
one hand. On the other hand, for the plantations located at high
altitudes, the increased solar insolation (and UV-B radiation, in
particular) has been identified as contributing, for example, to
the induction of off-flavors in white grapes (Van Leeuwen and
Darriet, 2016). In these plantations, the detrimental impacts of
high solar radiation can be limited by canopy management (late
leaf removal), adapted training system, use of more adaptable
grape varieties, and the use of special nets that filter UV-B
radiation which protect the grape bunch zone (Appendix B).
To sum up, due to the variety of the expected extreme
events, there were very few common affected decisions across the
three cropping systems, including irrigation techniques (all three
cropping systems) and use of drought resistant varieties (grape
and durum wheat cropping systems) (Appendix B).
Overall, there is no common decision suiting the responses of
all the three crops to the identified impacts of climate change,
due to agronomic differences, as well as other factors, such as
the decision makers’ level of risk aversion, their production and
profit objectives, and their level of knowledge and access to
climate information.
Identifying Entry-Points for Climate
Services
Climate services can help those operating in the agricultural
sector with identifying expected changes in climate and its
impacts on their activities as well as taking advantage of
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Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
opportunities to enhance their operations through the use
of tailored climate information (Vaughan and Dessai, 2014).
Such services can help to better prepare for the occurrence
of extreme events, better understanding trends for the next
growing season as well as supporting other decisions related to
planning activities, production and workforce (Hansen, 2002;
Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Bruno Soares, 2017). However, the
use of climate information—both at seasonal and longer-term
timescales—to support agricultural decisions and activities is still
somewhat limited in Europe (Bruno Soares et al., 2018b).
An example of recent efforts to develop tailored climate
information for the agriculture sector is the Global Agriculture
Project. This initiative, funded by the European Commission
as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S),
provides different products including crop related indicators
(e.g., crop productivity, harvest indices and crop water use)
as well as agricultural water resource indicators (e.g., soil
moisture, surface- and groundwater availability, river discharge
and reservoir status) (European Commission, 2019a). Also
pursued in the context of the C3S is the “Agricultural Climate
Advisory Services” (AgriCLASS) project which developed tools
aimed at specific Mediterranean crops such as grape and olive.
These tools enable the tracking of growing degree days across
Europe (for the past, present, and future), monitoring of grape
growth (Huglin Index), determining the onset, duration and
magnitude of drought condition (Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index), and calculating the day of first annual
appearance of olive fruit fly in spring (spring flight) (European
Commission, 2019b). Another example is the “Vineyards’
Integrated Smart Climate Application” (VISCA) project whose
decision-support tool integrated climatic and phenological data
to supply climate-informed decisions to the wine industry.
Such decisions included those related to crop forcing, irrigation
techniques, pruning and canopy management using short-
term and mid-term forecasts for temperature, wind speed,
accumulated precipitation, and relative humidity (Porras et al.,
2017; Rossi et al., 2018).
Table 2 provides an overview of the information regarding
the range of expected changes in climate conditions, expected
impacts from such changes, and the key decisions that will be
affecting olives, grapes and durum wheat crops. These decisions
can be considered as entry points for the development of effective
climate services, tailored for specific users’ needs.
For example, an increase in temperature above the maximum
threshold supported by the three crops (or in combination
with other climate changes e.g., rainfall variation, drought
occurrence, elevated CO2levels, soil moisture deficit) is likely
to affect decisions relating to irrigation and other water stress
reducing measures (olive and durum wheat), the choice of
varieties (grape and durum wheat), the type of clones and
rootstocks (grape), the training system and vine load (olive
and grape), canopy management (olive and grape), change in
planting/sowing and harvest date (olive and durum wheat), pest
and disease management (grape), allocation/choice of cultivation
area (grape and durum wheat), use of decision support tools
(grape), and crop insurance (durum wheat).
The occurrence of severe and prolonged dry conditions,
associated with prolonged water stress, is likely to affect decisions
relating to irrigation and other water stress reducing measures
(all 3 cropping systems), use of drought resistant varieties (grape,
durum wheat), crop insurance (durum wheat), adjusted trellis’
height (grape). The variation and decrease in rainfall below the
minimum water requirements or at critical development stages
(fruit setting and development) are likely to affect decisions
associated with irrigation and other water stress reducing
measures (olive), shift in crops (olive, durum wheat), and use of
drought resistant rootstocks (grape).
Other changes in climate and related conditions such as
frost, hail, severe winds, solar radiation and salinity are also
likely to affect these cropping systems and, as such, will require
the implementation of adequate measures to address those
challenges (Appendix B).
As depicted from Table 2, many of the decisions around the
production and management of the olive, grape and durum
wheat crops will be affected by changes in seasonal and long-
term climate change patterns. For example, an increase in
seasonal temperature can inform the decision to change for
grape varieties more resistant to warmer climates. Similarly,
a decrease in expected annual rainfall, particularly spring
and summer rainfall, below water requirements required by
olive trees can help support key decisions for implementing
water-stress reduction measures or even the decision to shift
to alternatives crops. Curiously, an expected decrease in
summer rainfall can potentially affect all three crops—olive,
grape and durum wheat—although the decisions associated
with these changes would differ depending on the crops’
responses. An increase in the occurrence of other climate-
related phenomena, such as, for example droughts, can
also help support a number of key decisions such as the
use of drought-resistant durum wheat varieties, improving
irrigation systems and/or take on crop insurance in order
to cover any potential risks associated to the occurrence of
drought conditions.
Understanding the type of climate information required (in
terms of specific variables, temporal scale and prediction lead
time) to support key decisions for these staple Mediterranean
crops is a first step to help us understand the type of climate
services that may be critical to support and inform the production
and management of these crops in the future (Bruno Soares,
2017; Bruno Soares et al., 2018a; Falloon et al., 2018). Such
climate services will need to be developed to fit the specific
decision-making contexts of the various crops but also shaped
by the decision-makers’ level of risk aversion, their production
and profit objectives, and their level of knowledge and access to
climate information (Lemos et al., 2012).
This paper does not provide an exhaustive analysis but rather
a synthesis of the entry points identified which can be regarded
as a starting point for developing tailored climate services for
the olive, grape, and durum wheat cropping systems, as well as
for similar decision-making contexts to the ones identified in
this study.
One remaining gap is that no climate analogs for annual
rainfall were identified, which limits the identification of types
of decisions that can be informed by tailored climate services.
As explained in section Methods, the climate analogs can be
contextualized to provide practical, usable information about
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 7May 2020 | Volume 4 | Article 64
Mihailescu and Bruno Soares Climate Influence on Agricultural Decisions
decision makers in different land use sectors managed within the
context of their climate (Dunn et al., 2019).
CONCLUSIONS
The aim of this paper is to review and identify the main decisions
linked (either explicit or implicit) to key climate change impacts
on the cropping systems of interest—olive, grape and durum
wheat—in order to inform the development of climate services
and other decision-support tools for these crops in the future.
The type of decisions identified as being linked to the
most common impacts of climate change on olive and grape
cropping systems mainly address the distinct regional trends
(north, south, south-east) in the manifestation of these impacts.
For the southern areas and lower latitudes of northern areas,
the most common identified impacts related to: (i) reduced
suitability of olive cultivation areas, decreases and variability of
olive yields, limited olive fruit development and reduced olive
oil quality (olive cropping system); and (ii) reduced suitability of
cultivation areas, limited grape development, altered phenology
and grape biochemistry, and reduced yields (grape cropping
system). For the northern areas and higher latitudes of southern
areas, the most common identified impacts related to: (i) reduced
suitability of cultivation areas and damages of olive trees and
fruits (olive cropping system) and (ii) shift in grape cultivars
and altered grape biochemistry, (grape cropping system). For
the durum wheat cropping system, the identified impacts did
not follow distinct regional trends and were related to reduced
suitability of cultivation areas, impaired plant development and
phenology, and yield variability.
The most common decisions are likely to be affected by
an increase in temperature above the maximum supported by
the three crops, or in combination with other climate changes
(rainfall variation, drought occurrence, elevated CO2levels, soil
moisture deficit). These decisions mainly relate to irrigation
and other water stress reducing measures (olive and durum
wheat), choice of varieties (grape and durum wheat), clones
and rootstocks (grape), training system and vine load (olive
and grape), canopy management (olive and grape), change in
planting/sowing and harvest date (olive and durum wheat), pest
and disease management (grape), allocation/choice of cultivation
area (grape and durum wheat), use of decision support tools
(grape), and crop insurance (durum wheat).
In these decision-making contexts, the timely availability
of climate information on temperature increase can be used
for developing climate services to effectively support the
affected decisions.
Although this paper does not provide an exhaustive analysis,
the entry points identified can be considered as a starting point
for informing the development of climate services which can
further support the adjustment of decision making for the olive,
grape, and durum wheat cropping systems in the study locations,
as well as for similar decision-making contexts beyond those
identified in this study. Currently, such services are limited for
these three cropping systems in Europe, most likely due to the
fact that such developments are still evolving in Europe.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
All the stages of the protocol of the systematic review, as
described in Appendix A, were carried out by EM. Writing of
the abstract, introduction, methods, and Results and Discussion
sections was done by EM. Writing of the Conclusions and
Identifying entry-points for climate services sections was done
by MB. MB also revised all the other sections of the manuscript.
FUNDING
This research was funded by the MED-GOLD (Turning
climate-related information into added value for traditional
MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat food
systems) project through the European Union’s Horizon
2020 research and innovation programme under grant
agreement No. 776467.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to thank the MED-GOLD team, including:
Luigi Ponti, Sandro Calmanti, Alessandro Dell’Aquila, Maurizio
Calvitti, Sergio Musmeci, Adolfo Rosati, Chiara Monotti, Marco
Silvestri, Cesare Ronchi, Luca Ruini, Federico Caboni, Luca
Pinna, Michela Secci, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Albert
Soret, Marta Terrado, Raül Marcos, Ilaria Vigo, Marco
Turco, Massimiliano Pasqui, Piero Toscano, Edmondo Di
Giuseppe, Javier Lopez, Silvia Lopez, Rafael Sanchez de
Puerta, Ricardo Arjona, Pedro Carrillo, Almudena Sanchez,
Antonio Tabasco, Freddy Wilmer Rivas González, Pierluigi
Meriggi, Matteo Ruggeri, Valentina Manstretta, Tiziano Bettati,
Andrea Toreti, Matteo Zampieri, Michael Sanderson, Erika
Palin, Christos Giannakopoulos, Anna Karali, Maria Hatzaki,
Ioannis Lemesios, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Aris Dadoukis,
Antonio Graça, Natasha Fontes, Marta Teixeira, Suraje Dessai,
Stavroula Maglavera, Athanasios Korakis, José Ricardo Cure,
Daniel Rodríguez.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found
online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.
2020.00064/full#supplementary-material
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Conflict of Interest: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the
absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a
potential conflict of interest.
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Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 10 May 2020 | Volume 4 | Article 64
