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Posted 29 March 2020. Last Updated 10 May 2020. v7.3
MMR Vaccine Appears to Confer Strong Protection from COVID-19:
Few Deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in Highly Vaccinated Populations
Rubella component of MMR vaccine may prevent death or severe disease from COVID-19
Principal Investigator: Jeffrey E. Gold1, President, World Organization (inset); Co-Investigator: Larry P. Tilley2, Diplomate, ACVIM;
Co-Investigator: William H. Baumgartl3, MD, MSME; Correspondence: mmr@world.org Text/Call: 202-642-4445
Summary: Published epidemiological data suggests a correlation between patients who receive measles-
rubella containing vaccines such as the commonly available MMR vaccine, and reduced COVID-19 death
rate. Similar observations were recently noted in a Cambridge Study by Young et al, who noted protein
homology between the COVID-19 virus and the rubella virus, corroborating the evidence in this report. The
epidemiologic associations suggest that a measles-rubella containing vaccine, as currently produced, may
be protective against severe disease and death from COVID-19 exposure.
Introduction
COVID-19 infections have presented with a very unusual morbidity penetration, where patients younger than 50 show
little morbidity from the disease, with mortality dramatically increasing above age 50. This is a very different
presentation from other viral diseases, suggesting that some factor is protective in younger people, and missing in
older patients. It was our theory that different exposure to vaccines between younger and older people may account
for this different morbidity rate. Widely deployed measles-rubella containing vaccines (MRCV) including MMR, MR,
and MMRV are believed to be why children, teenagers and other young adults often have few symptoms from
COVID-19, and few deaths are attributed to COVID-19 in the young. Statistical data also demonstrates that MRCV
vaccination rates substantially correlate with the widely varying outcomes from country to country related to COVID-
19 mortality. Countries with recent, major MRCV vaccination programs have few if any deaths from COVID-19. [1]
Published Epidemiologic Data
Globally, COVID-19 has what appears to be a clearly defined fatality rate pivot point close to 50 years old. From birth
to age 49 the fatality rate from COVID-19 increases only slightly with each year of age. After age 50 the fatality rate
from COVID-19 climbs quickly and steadily. This is very different from most other diseases.
Case Fatality Rates by Age from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Posted 29 March 2020. Last Updated 10 May 2020. v7.3
The MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine was introduced in 1971. It was most commonly given as a single
vaccination from 1971-1978 then as a set of two vaccinations at least 28 days apart starting in 1979. Based upon its
year of introduction, most people today aged 49 and under would likely have had at least one MMR vaccination, and
those 41 and under would most likely have had two MMR vaccinations. This vaccine history may be a possible
explanation for a COVID-19 death rate pivot point close to age 50. The fact that some aged 40-49 only received a
single MRCV dose is a possible reason why this age range has a marginally higher death rate than those under 40.
LEFT: Deaths per 100,000 population from John Hopkins (3 May 2020 at 11:53 PM EDT): https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
RIGHT: MMR Vaccine Coverage, 2002 (excerpted from BMJ chart): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC261838/
In countries where vaccination "catch up" programs have been instituted in recent decades there appears to be the
lowest incidence of death from COVID-19, and in a few countries no deaths at all. In many of these countries, two
doses of MRCV were given to older teenagers, and in some cases also to young adults, in addition to children.
The potential lethality of COVID-19 is related, in part, to it easy and rapid transmissibility, leading to wide-spread
exposure. Early data suggested that each person would likely transmit the virus to two other people, leading to a
quick, logarithmic progression of the infection. Under the theory of herd immunity, having large portions of the
population with immunity, dramatically reduces the transmissibility of the disease. It is not necessary in any single
population to vaccinate 100% of individuals with MRCV to eliminate nearly all deaths from COVID-19. Instead, one
has to only provide enough coverage with MRCV so that the effective reproductive number (R) of the virus through
each patient is less than 1, which stops the logarithmic progression. A drop in the R value below 1 likely explains why
several populations including those of Madagascar, Hong Kong, and South Korea, which have all had aggressive
MRCV vaccination programs, have reported so few deaths from COVID-19.
Published data demonstrates the following associations:
Madagascar, a country with 26.26 million people, recently vaccinated 7.2 million of its citizens (over 27.4% of the total
population) with MRCV in 2019. This is in addition to any citizens who may have already been vaccinated. There
have been no deaths at all from COVID-19 in Madagascar as of May 4, 2020. [2]
Hong Kong in 1997 initiated a mass immunization campaign targeting infants through 19-year old adults. During
2019, Hong Kong instituted a free MMR vaccination program for all adult healthcare workers, airport staff and foreign
domestic helpers, and also made MMR vaccinations available to many other adults seeking them. Hong Kong
continued this program into 2020. Only four people have died from COVID-19 in all of Hong Kong despite its
proximity the epicenter of the pandemic, just 563 miles away in Wuhan, China. Hong Kong is the world’s fourth most
dense country in the world with a population nearly the size of New York City which recently had large scale protests,
with over 1 million people at some rallies, continuing well into 2020. Nonetheless, no new COVID-19 deaths have
been reported during the seven-week period ending 3 May 2020. [3] [4]
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Belgium is the country with the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world.
Belgium didn’t even offer MMR vaccinations until 1985, and it wasn’t until 1995 that it began giving the recommended
two doses of MMR vaccinations per person. Even though Belgium has a population just 54% larger than Hong Kong,
it has had a staggering 7,844 deaths from COVID-19, compared to Hong Kong’s four. [5] [6]
Several other countries which have reported zero or near zero deaths from COVID-19 have had aggressive MRCV
programs which include a large percent of the adult population: North Korea (many adults vaccinated through age
45), Turkmenistan (many adults vaccinated through age 40), Cook Islands (many adults vaccinated through age 35),
Posted 29 March 2020. Last Updated 10 May 2020. v7.3
Marshall Islands (many adults vaccinated through age 40), Solomon Islands (many adults vaccinated through age
29), and Tuvalu (many adults vaccinated through age 34).
South Korea had a huge outbreak of measles in 2000 - 2001 (55,707 reported cases) resulting in the government
going back and vaccinating its entire population at well above the typical child-only MRCV protocols in most other
countries. In addition to childhood immunizations, the South Korean military requires all new recruits to get two MMR
vaccinations. Since every male in the country is required to join the military between age 18 to 28, many men
received the MMR vaccine as many as three or four times, conferring maximum immunity. During measles outbreaks,
there have even been MMR vaccine shortages in South Korea as many in the adult population sought to get
immunized. South Korea is showing an unusually low incidence of death from COVID-19 as compared to other
countries with a similar timeline of initial infection. [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]
Many other countries which have MRCV programs reaching beyond young children are also seeing far fewer deaths
as well as much slower death doubling rates than most other countries from COVID-19. Such countries include:
Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia, Nepal, Maldives, Libya, Djibouti, Republic of Georgia, El Salvador, Uruguay, Nicaragua,
Guatemala, Belarus, Armenia, Oman, Somalia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Papua New Guinea, and
Micronesia. One small country in Asia, Bhutan, with zero COVID-19 deaths, has vaccinated nearly its entire
population of both children and adults with MRCV.
Another country on the opposite end of the spectrum, Italy had a large-scale measles outbreak in 2017 affecting over
4,000, caused by a much lower than typical MRCV rate in that country. The lack of sufficient MRCV is a possible
explanation why there has been a higher death rate in Italy from COVID-19 when compared to most other similarly
affected countries. The measles immunization rate in Italy in 2005 was just 85%, one of the lowest in Europe. [12]
[13] [14]
Analysis of data related to topics like MRCV are, of course, not always straightforward. For example, Iran is another
country that has been hard hit by COVID-19 deaths. Iran engaged in an aggressive MRCV strategy in 2003, which
one would normally expect to have had a protective effect as Iran vaccinated over 33 million of its citizens that year,
up through age 25. The reason that program likely did not protect the population substantially from COVID-19 is that
only one MRCV vaccination was given, while two at least 28 days apart are required for full effect. [15]
Further epidemiological evidence possibly supporting MRCV decreasing severity of COVID-19 cases can be obtained
from the U.S.S. Roosevelt. As of 30 April 2020, 1102 people on board the Roosevelt tested positive for COVID-19.
Although there was one crew member death early on, of 1102 current COVID-19 positive crew members only seven
have been hospitalized over the course of the outbreak, and no cases are currently in an ICU. [16] The data set
provided by the U.S.S. Roosevelt is unique because unlike the general population which typical receives only MMR
vaccinations as young children, the U.S. military gives all recruits new MMR vaccinations upon entry regardless of
prior vaccine history. This means nearly everyone on the U.S.S. Roosevelt most likely had updated MMR
vaccinations within the last several years. Most crew members of the U.S.S. Roosevelt likely fall into the 20-44 age
range which is known to have a typical COVID-19 hospitalization rate of 14.3-20.8%. Currently at only a 0.6%
hospitalization rate, the hospitalization rate for those on the U.S.S. Roosevelt appears to be around 20 times lower
than that for the general population of COVID-19 positive people in the same age range. [17] [18] [19]
Infants are presumed well protected from COVID-19 because their own mothers have mostly likely had two MRCV
vaccinations, thus passing along MRCV related passive immunity to them. Ordinarily, babies receive their first dose
of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine in the United States between 12-15 months of age. A second
dose of MMR is recommended between ages 4 and 6 ― before a child enters kindergarten or first grade.
The efficacy of MRCV has been shown to go down with age, leaving some of those who received the vaccines in
their youth more vulnerable as they age. Most people over age 60 never received any form of MRCV. [20]
Outside of countries where MRCV have been widely given to adults, some adults get additional MRCV as part of a
vaccine protocol when traveling to certain countries. Health care workers are sometimes offered additional access to
vaccination as well. [21]
Discussion
A possible mechanism for the protective effect of the rubella component of MRCV in relation to COVID-19 was
recently described by scientists at the University of Cambridge, corroborating from a biological perspective the same
conclusion reached herein by Principal Investigator from an epidemiological perspective. Further evidence supporting
the postulated relationship between MRCV and COVID-19 include: a live measles vaccine has previously been
considered in studies as a base for other Coronavirus vaccines including SARS; novel alphacoronaviruses and
Posted 29 March 2020. Last Updated 10 May 2020. v7.3
paramyxoviruses (the measles family) have been found to cocirculate; and MRCV have previously been shown to
generally increase immunity against many unrelated viruses. An excellent discussion was presented noting the
homology of amino acid sequences between the COVID virus, and the rubella virus, possibly explaining cross-over
reactivity of the vaccines. [22] [23] [24] [25]
The variety of epidemiologic associations clearly suggest a plausible indication that the MMR vaccine may
confer protection to the COVID-19 virus as well. Right now, it is a national priority to develop a safe and
effective vaccine for the COVID-19 virus, and the race is on to do this, with dozens of companies and millions
of dollars spent in this effort. As part of this effort, there should be an immediate investigation of using the
already available MMR vaccine in controlled studies to show a protective benefit. Epidemiologic studies
suggest this may already be effective as a COVID-19 vaccine, and this could be instituted within months,
perhaps saving thousands of lives with an earlier deployment than other vaccines under development.
This study began on 18 March 2020. An early version was sent to Anthony S. Fauci, MD (NIAID Director) and
subsequently forwarded by the National Institute of Health to the COVID-19 Research Team on 29 March 2020.
Note: In the interest of providing early information to other researchers and the public, many COVID-19 researchers
including ourselves are publishing "early release" articles like this one which are not considered final. The information
contained herein, and certainty of any conclusions being reached, are subject to change as this study continues.
Author Information:
1Jeffrey E. Gold: Founder and president of World Organization, Gold is a veteran computer scientist, inventor, and data analyst. Gold was
the first person to publish research demonstrating correlations between the MMR Vaccine and COVID-19. He has been devoting his full-time
efforts to this research since March 18, 2020. Gold is also inventor of the world’s first 3D microphone, Barnaby Pro, capable of recording
audio so real, it is indistinguishable from real life. Prior to launching World Organization, Gold created and programmed Go.com, the world’s
first online entertainment portal acquired by the Walt Disney Company in 1997. Gold’s mathematical and data analysis accomplishments
date back to high school when in 1981 he programmed the world’s first computer simulation to solve Rubik’s Cube, and also scored first
place in a math competition run by the State of California. Gold does all database programming for World Organization’s Rescue Me website.
2 Larry P. Tilley, DVM, Diplomate, ACVIM: One of the world’s most-respected veterinary researchers, there are few veterinarians worldwide
who wouldn’t know his name or have at least one if not several of Tilley’s standard-of-care books on their shelves. Tilley is a Diplomate,
American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine. In addition to his well-known veterinary work, Dr. Tilley is also a consulting human medical
researcher working with pharmaceutical companies to assist them in the development of new medications. Tilley has authored and co-
authored hundreds of scholarly articles, books and proceedings. His articles and research have been published in: JAVMA, JAVRS, JAAHA,
VM/SAC, Canine Practice, Feline Practice, The American Journal of Pathology, Journal of Veterinary Radiology, Medical Education
Dynamics, Medical Times, Comparative Pathology Bulletin, ACVIM Scientific Proceedings, and dozens of other publications. Tilley has
written and edited over 30 veterinary books that veterinarians depend on to provide current best standard of care in their practices including:
Manual of Canine and Feline Cardiology, Blackwell's Five- Minute Veterinary Consult, ECG for the Small Animal Practitioner, Canine and
Feline Cardiac Arrhythmias Self-Assessment, and Blackwell's Five-Minute Veterinary Consult: Laboratory Tests and Diagnostic Procedures.
3William H. Baumgartl, MD, MSME: Director of Stem Cell Therapies at Nevada Spine Center in Las Vegas, Baumgartl has a rare
background combining Mechanical and Biomedical Engineering, and Medicine. After receiving a bachelor’s and master’s degree in
engineering from Virginia Tech, Baumgartl went to medical school at the University of Florida. Following this, he trained in orthopedic
surgery, and completed his Residency in Anesthesiology, and a Fellowship in Pain Management at UC San Francisco. Following this, he had
further training in Acupuncture through the UCLA Medical School. Baumgartl is triple board-certified in Anesthesia, Pain Management, and
Addiction Medicine. Baumgartl was the previous Associate Professor of Medicine and director of Interventional Pain Management at UC
Davis in California where he taught advanced interventional pain treatment techniques.
World Organization is a 501c3 public charity. It’s website World.Org was launched in 1997 and has recently been repositioned to
devote itself entirely to World’s research related to COVID-19 and the MMR Vaccine. World also operates one of the most
visited international charity websites, Rescue Me, a pet adoption site has helped 950,000 pets find homes. Rescue Me is ranked
4,086th most visited website in the United States, serving more monthly visitors than the ASPCA, and six times the number of
monthly visitors as the United Way.
Posted 29 March 2020. Last Updated 10 May 2020. v7.3
References
1. MRCV DATA FROM W.H.O. USED HEREIN:
https://www.who.int/immunization/monitoring_surveillance/data/Summary_Measles_SIAs.xls
2. MADAGASCAR VACCINATES 7.2 MILLION WITH MEASLES-RUBELLA VACCINE IN 2019
https://measlesrubellainitiative.org/measles-news/mri-gavi-partners-help-vaccinate-7-2-million-children-in-madagascar-
against-measles/
3. HONG KONG MMR CAMPAIGN: https://www.who.int/bulletin/archives/80(7)585.pdf
4. LARGE SCALE FREE MMR CAMPAIGN IN HONG KONG 2019-2020:
https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/01/20200129/20200129_131138_327.html
5. DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION (FROM JOHN HOPKINS):
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
6. MMR VACCINATION HISTORY FOR BELGIUM:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4998501/
7. ERADICATION OF MEASLES IN SOUTH KOREA:
https://www.virology.ws/2007/04/12/eradication-of-measles-in-south-korea/
8. SOUTH KOREA MEASLES OUTBREAK: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3534158/
9. MMR VACCINE SHORTAGES IN SOUTH KOREA DUE TO HIGH DEMAND:
http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=5108
10. SOUTH KOREA FIRST WESTERN PACIFIC COUNTRY TO ELIMINATE RUBELLA
http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=1577
11. VACCINE POLICY FOR SOUTH KOREA MILITARY:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4366953/
12. ITALY MEASLES OUTBREAK: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.37.30614
13. INADEQUATE VACCINATION IN ITALY: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5243a4.htm
14. MEASLE VACCINATION RATES IN IN ITALY: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6321942/
15. MEASLES/RUBELLA VACCINE FAILURE IN IRAN:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197120700080X
16. USS ROOSEVELT COVID-19 INFECTION AND HOSPITALIZATION RATES APRIL 24, 2020:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/24/coronavirus-uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-test-covid-19-
positive/3018331001/
17. US MILITARY MMR VACCINATION POLICY:
https://www.thebalancecareers.com/military-vaccinations-4058318
18. AGE DEMOGRAPHICS OF US NAVY ACTIVE DUTY MEMBERS:
https://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2015-Demographics-Profile-Navy-Active-Duty-Members.pdf
19. COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATION RATES BY AGE:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105402/covid-hospitalization-rates-us-by-age-group/
20. VACCINE IMMUNITY CAN WEAR OFF OVER TIME:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/measles-undervaccinated-1.5094362
21. MEASLES VACCINES FOR TRAVELERS: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/plan-for-travel.html
22. PROTECTION FROM SARS CORONAVIRUS USING MEASLES VACCINE:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0042682214000051
23. VIRUSES COCIRCULATE: https://aem.asm.org/content/83/18/e01326-17
24. MEASLES VACCINES ADDITIONAL BENEFITS: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28646947
25. HOW MMR MIGHT PROTECT AGAINST COVID-19:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20053207v1.full.pdf
