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Roadmap to success for the International Whaling Commission -Southern Ocean Research Partnership (IWC-SORP) Theme 6 -the Right Sentinel for Climate Change: linking southern right whale foraging ecology to demographics, health and climate

May 2020

DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.13001.57441

Authors:

Emma Carroll

University of Auckland

Els Vermeulen

University of Pretoria

Penny Clarke

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Report of the Workshop. Please use the following citation: Carroll EL, Charlton C, Vermeulen E, Clarke P and J. A. Jackson (Eds). 2020. Roadmap to success for the International Whaling Commission - Southern Ocean Research Partnership (IWC-SORP) Theme 6 - the Right Sentinel for Climate Change: linking southern right whale foraging ecology to demographics, health and climate: Report of the Workshop. Report SC68B/SH/07 presented to the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission, Cambridge, UK

Content uploaded by Emma Carroll

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Content uploaded by Emma Carroll

Content may be subject to copyright.

Roadmap' to' success' for'the' International' Whaling' Commission' -' Southern' Ocean'

Research' Partnership'(IWC-SORP)' Theme'6' -' the' Right' Sentinel' for' Climate' Change:'

linking'southern'right'whale'foraging'ecology'to'demographics,'health'and'climate'

Report!on!the!southern!right!whale!workshop!held! at ! the! World! Marine! Ma mmal! Conference,!

Barcelona,!Spain,!in!December!2019!

CONTENTS'

1.!INTRODUCTORY!ITEMS!!!!!!!!!3!

!1.1!Arrangement!for!the!workshop!!!!!!!!3!

! 1.2!Review!of!the!documents!and!available!material!!!!!3!!!!!

2!SESSION!1:!THE!RIGHT!ADVICE!!!!!!!!4!

2.1!Introduction!to!the!IWC-SORP!theme!and!workshop!overview! ! ! 4!

2.2!Inference!from!comparing!multiple!right!whale!populations:!lessons!learned! 5!

3!SESSION!2:!THE!RIGHT!TOOLS!!!!!!!!6!

3.1!OBJECTIVE!1:!FORAGING!ECOLOGY!!!!!!6!

3.1.1!Telemetry!!!!!!!!!6!

3.1.2!Stable!isotopes!!!!!!!!6!

3.1.3!Synthesis!and!discussion!on!foraging!ecology! ! ! ! 7!

3.2!OBJECTIVE!2:!DEMOGRAPHICS!!!!!!!8!

3.2.1!Southern!right!whale!population!models!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!8!

3.2.2!Development!of!a!common!model!to!assess!southern!right!whale!

population!demographics!across!wintering!grounds!!!!!!9!

3.2.3!Synthesis!and!discussion!on!demographics! ! ! ! 9!

3.3!OBJECTIVE!3:!HEALTH!!!!!!!!11!

3.3.1!Photogrammetry!body!condition!assessments! ! ! ! 11!

3.3.2!Assessing!energetic!cost!of!entanglement!to!the!fecundity!of!North!Atlantic!

right!whales!!!!!!!!!!12!

3.3.3!Physiological!indicators!of!health!!!!!13!

3.3.4!Synthesis!and!discussion!on!health!!!!!13!

3.4!OBJECTIVE!4:!UNDERSTANDING!CLIMATE!!!!!14!

3.4.1!The!Southern!Ocean!under!climate!change!!!!14!

3.4.2!Synthesis!and!discussion!on!climate!change!!!!15!

4.!SESSION!3:!DEVELOPING!THE!RIGHT!ROAD!MAP!FOR!SUCCESS!!!!16!

4.1!BRINGING!THE!GOALS!AND!PRINCIPLES!OF!IWC-SORP!TO!THE!DISCUSSION!16!

4.2!IDENTIFICATION!OF!DATA!GAPS!AND!RESEARCH!PRIORITIES!!!16!

4.2.1!FORAGING!ECOLOGY!!!!!!!17!

4.2.1.1!Telemetry!!!!!!!17!

4.2.1.2!Stable!isotopes!!!!!!!17!

4.2.1.3!Satellite!imagery!!!!!!18!

4.2.1.4!Acoustics!!!!!!!18!

4.2.1.5!Habitat!modelling!of!foraging!grounds!!!!18!

4.2.2!DEMOGRAPHICS!!!!!!!!19!

4.2.2.1!Photo-ID!and!genetic!monitoring!programmes!!!19!

4.2.2.2!Population!demographic!modelling!!!!19!

4.2.3!HEALTH!!!!!!!!!20!

4.2.3.1!Photogrammetry/Visual!health!assessments!!!20!

4.2.3.2!Physiological!indicators!of!health!!!!20!

4.2.3.3!Anthropogenic!threats,!strandings!and!necropsy! ! 20!

4.2.4!CLIMATE!!!!!!!!!21!

5.!PROPOSED!WORKING!GROUPS!AND!ACTIONS!!!!!!21!

5.1!FORAGING!ECOLOGY!!!!!!!!21!

5.2!DEMOGRAPHICS!!!!!!!!!21!

5.3!HEALTH!!!!!!!!!!22!

5.4!CLIMATE!!!!!!!!!!22!

6.!ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS!!!!!!!!!23!

7.!REFERENCES!!!!!!!!!!23!

8.!ANNEXES!

!ANNEX!A:!Participant!List! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 26!

!ANNEX!B:!Agenda!!!!!!!!!27!

!ANNEX!C:!Proposal!for!a!common!simple!and!widely!applicable!model!for!right!

whale!population!assessments! ! ! ! ! ! ! 28!

!ANNEX!D:!Survey!information!for!long!term!southern!right!whale!genetic!and!

photo!ID!datasets!for!identifying!biases!for!development!of!common!model!to!

compare!demographics! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 36!

!ANNEX!E:!Gaps!Analysis!template!for!completion!within!each!region!!! Appended!

1. INTRODUCTORY'ITEMS'

1.1 Arrangement'for'the'workshop''

The!Workshop!was!held!at!The!Centre!de!Convencions!Internacional!de!Barcelona!(CCIB),!Spain,!

on!Saturday!8th!December!2019.!

Workshop!details!as!follows:!

Workshop!organizing!committee:!Emma!Carroll,!Els!Vermeulen!and!Claire!Charlton!

Chair!Person:!Carlos!Olavarría!was!elected!Chair!

Meeting!Rapporteur:!Penny!Clarke!

Workshop!Participants:!Annex!A!

Agenda:!Adopted!as!given!in!Annex!B'!

1.2 Review'of'the'documents'and'available'material'

Documents!circulated!to!the!workshop!participants!prior!to!the!meeting!included:!

- Agenda!(Annex!B)!

- Right!Whale!Simple!Common!Model!Description!–!Doug!Butterworth!(Annex!C)!

- Long!term!southern!right!whale!dataset!summary!table!(Annex!D)!

- Gaps!analysis!template!for!completion!within!each!region!(Annex!E)!!

In!the!lead!up!to!the!Workshop,!participants!were!requested!to!provide!information!for!the!gaps!

analysis!and!the!long!term!southern!right!whale!dataset!summary!table,!in!collaboration!with!

other!researchers!from!each!region.!Participants!provided!relevant!information.!

! !

2. SESSION'1:'THE'RIGHT'ADVICE''

2.1 Introduction'to'the'IWC-SORP'theme'and'workshop'overview'

Southern!right!whale!(SRW,!Eubalaena(australis)!recovery!from!commercial!whaling!has!been!

monitored!in!wintering!grounds!in!Argentina,!Brazil,!South!Africa,!Australia!and!New!Zealand!

through!decades-long!photo!identification!(photo-ID)!and!genetic!monitoring!studies.!However,!

in!recent!years,!a!decrease!in!SRW!reproduction!through!increased!mortality!and!the!

lengthening!of!calving!intervals!was!observed!in!some!wintering!grounds,!which!has!been!

associated!with!reduced!population!growth.!Reproduction!is!dependent!on!female!body!

condition,!which!is,!in!turn!linked!to!foraging!success.!Therefore,!the!IWC-SORP!SRW!theme!will!

combine!new!knowledge!on!foraging!areas!and!migratory!linkages!with!existing!long-term!

datasets!from!wintering!grounds!to!investigate!the!impact!of!climate!variation!on!SRW!

recovery.!!

The!SRW!IWC-SORP!theme!has!four!objectives:!

1. Increase!our!understanding!of!SRW!foraging!habitats!and!ecology!

2. Update!our!knowledge!on!SRW!population!dynamics!in!a!comparative!framework!

3. Pursue!integration!of!health!assessment!indicators!with!long-term!monitoring!data!

4. Investigate!the!impact!of!climate!variation!at!foraging!grounds!on!population!recovery!

The!first!objective!on!foraging!ecology!aims!to!make!use!of!a!range!of!tools,!such!as!genetics,!

telemetry,!stable!isotope!analysis!and!acoustics!to!identify!the!location!of!SRW!foraging!

grounds,!investigate!habitat!use!and!determine!prey!species,!and!assess!links!between!summer!

foraging!and!winter!nursery/socialising!grounds.!

The!second!objective!aims!to!develop!a!comparative!framework!with!which!to!estimate!

population!parameters!across!wintering!grounds,!using!both!photo-ID!and!genetic!data.!

The!third!objective!aims!to!integrate!health!indicators!with!long-term!monitoring!data!through!

visual!health!assessments,!photogrammetry,!and!physiological!indicators!of!health,!to!provide!

reliable!tools!that!detect!changes!in!SRW!health!over!time!and!across!wintering!grounds.!!

The!final!objective!is!to!investigate!the!impact!of!climate!variation!at!foraging!grounds!on!

population!recovery.!This!will!be!done!by!assessing!meaningful!linkages!between!foraging,!

health!and!reproduction,!and!assessing!the!impact!of!climate!change!on!foraging!grounds!and!

prey!resources.!

The!three!Workshop!objectives!were:!!

(1)!Generate!discussion!with!experts!on!tools!that!could!be!used!to!address!the!IWC-SORP!

Theme!6!objectives!!

(2)!Develop!a!tool!to!identify!research!priorities!to!achieve!the!IWC-SORP!SRW!theme!objectives!

(3)!To!form!working!groups!under!each!of!the!four!objectives!to!increase!communication!and!

outreach!within!the!IWC-SORP!community!and!to!enhance!the!network!for!collaborative!

research.!

The!purpose!of!this!report!is!to!present!a!summary!of!the!workshop!and!progress!towards!the!

workshop!objectives!to!the!IWC!Science!Committee!(SC)!Southern!Hemisphere!Sub-Committee!

in!IWC!SC68B!in!May!2020.!

Those!who!were!not!in!attendance!of!the!meeting!were!acknowledged!and!in!particular,!

recognition!was!given!to!the!outstanding!contributions!of!Bannister!and!Best!to!the!SRW!

research!field.

2.2 Inference'from'comparing'multiple'right'whale'populations:'lessons'learned'

(Presenter:'Peter'Corkeron)'

Prior!to!the!paper!by!Pace!et!al.!(2017),!demonstrating!that!North!Atlantic!right!whales!(E.(

glacialis,!NARW)!were!in!decline,!there!had!been!a!general!belief!in!the!community!of!scientists!

and!managers!working!on!the!species!that!it!was!doing!well.!This!was!despite!the!clear!

difference!in!the!rates!of!recovery!of!NARW!and!several!populations!of!SRW.!NARW!seemed!to!

be!increasing!slower!than!were!SRW.!By!comparing!times!series!of!calf!counts!between!three!

SRW!populations!and!NARW,!we!showed!that!NARW!were!not!recovering!at!anywhere!near!the!

rate!at!which!SRW!were!(Corkeron!et!al.!2018).!Further,!using!matrix!models!of!female!NARW!

life!history,!we!also!showed!that!NARW!could!have!increased!at!least!twice!the!rate!that!they!did!

through!to!2010.!The!comparison!with!SRW!recovery!helped!impress!the!point!that!NARW!

recovery!has!always!been!inadequate.!A!clear!message!of!the!work!was!that!human-caused!

mortality!had!always!jeopardized!the!recovery!of!NARW.!!The!success!of!the!collaborative!

project!comparing!the!time!series!of!calf!counts!was!driven!by!a!few!factors!(1)!focus:!the!

project!was!focused,!and!had!a!very!clear!aim!–!a!scientific!paper;!(2)!success!at!remote!

working:!the!work!was!web-based,!with!no!meeting!needed,!which!would!have!caused!delay,!

and!incurred!costs!(3)!prioritisation:!everyone!involved!in!the!project!agreed!to!collaborate!and!

share!data!quickly;!(4)!respect:!all!contributors!saw!that!the!conservation!aim!of!the!work!was!

important,!and!everyone!respected!each!other’s!contributions.!!Perhaps!most!importantly,!all!

collaborators!trusted!each!other:!their!motives,!the!quality!of!their!science,!and!everyone’s!

capacity!to!work!together!to!achieve!a!shared!goal.!These!are!lessons!to!take!forward!into!IWC-

SORP!right!whale!theme.!

3. SESSION'2:'THE'RIGHT'TOOLS''

3.1 OBJECTIVE'1:'FORAGING'ECOLOGY'

3.1.1 Telemetry'(Presenter:'Alex'Zerbini)'

SRW!typically!migrate!between!wintering!breeding/calving!grounds!close!to!land!masses!and!

feeding!habitats!in!the!open!ocean.!Their!distribution,!seasonal!occurrence!and!behaviour!

during!the!winter!reproductive!season!is!relatively!well!known!in!the!main!calving!areas!(e.g.,!

eastern!coast!of!South!America,!South!Africa,!New!Zealand!sub-Antarctic!and!southwest!

Australia).!However,!much!less!is!known!about!their!migratory!behaviour,!feeding!destinations!

and!foraging!ecology!mainly!because!these!whales!appear!to!disperse!into!middle!and!low!

latitude!open!ocean!areas!where!survey!conditions!can!be!challenging!and!expensive.!Telemetry!

methods!have!become!a!powerful!tool!to!assess!movements!and!behaviour!of!cetaceans!in!the!

past!two!decades,!especially!in!cases!where!animals!move!to!remote!habitats.!Whale!borne!

electronic!tags!are!in!continuous!development;!current!instruments!can!carry!multiple!sensors,!

are!more!reliable,!and!less!impactful!to!individual!animals.!During!his!presentation,!Zerbini!

provided!a!summary!of!the!different!telemetry!methods!available!to!study!foraging!ecology!of!

whales,!with!an!emphasis!on!long-term!satellite!tracking.!Findings!from!an!ongoing!study!with!

western!South!Atlantic!SRW!were!shared!as!an!example!of!how!these!technique!can!be!used!to!

investigate!movements!of!whales!once!they!leave!the!calving!grounds,!including!an!assessment!

of!the!migratory!routes!and!destinations,!as!well!as!preferred!foraging!habitats!(Zerbini!et!al.!

2018).!!

3.1.2 Stable'Isotopes'(Presenter:'Emma'Carroll)'

Stable!isotopes!analysis!(SIA)!is!a!tool!that!has!been!used!extensively!in!ecology!to!examine!

animal!diet,!habitat!use,!movement,!and!physiology!(Newsome!et!al.!2010).!In!the!context!of!the!

SORP!SRW!theme,!it!offers!the!ability!to!use!skin!samples!collected!from!whales!on!their!

wintering!grounds!to!provide!information!on!the!foraging!grounds!visited!by!whales!in!the!prior!

2-3!months.!Carroll,!presenting!also!on!behalf!of!Newsome,!discussed!how!the!power!of!such!

analyses!will!depend!on!(1)!baseline!isotopic!variation!in!the!ecosystem!or!source;!(2)!isotopic!

incorporation!into!the!whale’s!tissue!and!(3)!isotopic!discrimination.!For!(1)!there!is!

considerable!variation!in!the!Pacific!and!Atlantic!Ocean!d13C!and!to!a!lesser!extent!d15N!that!

provide!the!ability!to!discriminate!foraging!ground!locations!on!a!broad!scale!(Graham!et!al.!

2010).!For!(2),!it!was!discussed!how!isotopic!incorporation!is!dependent!on!tissue!type,!which!

varies!from!rapid!(e.g.,!breath!CO2)!to!long-term!or!potentially!life-long!(e.g.,!bone!collagen).!

Baleen!was!described!as!the!gold!standard!tissue,!because!as!it!grows!it!becomes!a!continuous!

but!metabolically!inert!record!(i.e.,!does!not!change!once!synthesised)!of!the!whale’s!isotopic!

profile!over!several!migratory!cycles.!In!SRW,!this!record!likely!represents!up!to!8!years!of!

migratory!behaviours!(Best!&!Schell!1996).!For!(3),!it!was!discussed!how!isotopic!

discrimination!is!the!difference!in!isotopic!profile!between!diet!and!consumer!tissue!due!to!

physiological!processes.!The!most!common!SIA!uses!‘bulk’!tissues,!which!includes!two!different!

categories!of!amino!acids!(AAs);!essential,!which!cannot!be!synthesized!de!novo!by!the!animal,!

and!non-essential,!which!can!be!synthesized!from!macromolecular!substrates!(e.g.,!lipids!and!

carbohydrates).!As!essential!AAs!are!incorporated!without!alteration,!they!likely!reflect!the!

source!or!ecosystem!the!animal!was!foraging!more!strongly!than!non-essential!AAs.!!Compound!

specific!SIA!seeks!to!characterise!the!isotope!profile!separately!for!essential!and!non-essential!

AAs,!to!tease!apart!the!influence!of!trophic!level!and!source!isotopic!influences!(McMahon!&!

Newsome!2019).!This!is!becoming!the!gold!standard!for!understanding!foraging!ecology!and!

migration!strategies!using!stable!isotopes!(e.g.,!Polito!et!al.!2017).!Newsome!highlighted!

research!opportunities!and!gaps!that!could!be!addressed!under!the!auspices!of!the!IWC-SORP!

SRW!theme,!namely!identifying!and!augmenting!potential!prey!datasets!to!provide!datasets!

against!which!to!compare!whale!isotope!profiles!and!the!identification!of!SRW!baleen!

collections!that!could!be!analysed.!

3.1.3 Synthesis'and'discussion'on'foraging'ecology'

The!Workshop!discussed!the!value!of!understanding!how!habitat!use!patterns!vary!between!

different!age!and!sex!classes.!In!particular,!much!species-wide!work!on!SRW!habitat!use!to!date!

has!focused!on!the!movements!of!mothers!and!calves.!Thus,!gathering!information!about!the!

habitat!use!patterns!of!other!demographic!classes!would!be!very!useful.!Analyses!of!bulk!d13C or

d15N skin stable!isotope!data!from!New!Zealand!SRW!show!that!foraging!patterns!vary!between!

different!age!and!sex!classes!(Carroll!et!al.!in!prep),!supporting!that!it!is!an!important!

consideration.!!

Linking!telemetry!data!with!demographic!information!was!encouraged!by!the!Workshop,!for!

example,!by!ensuring!data!are!collected!on!tagged!whales!that!enables!them!to!be!matched!to!

long-term!photo-ID!and/or!genetic!catalogues.!This!allows!the!tagging!data!to!be!understood!in!

the!context!of!the!site!fidelity/residency!patterns!and!demography!of!individual!whales,!and!

strengthens!the!ability!for!follow!up!monitoring!of!tagged!animals.!Additionally,!collecting!skin!

biopsy!samples!concurrent!to!tagging!enable!the!whale’s!sex!to!be!determined!using!genetic!

methods!and!information!on!past!habitat!use!gained!via!matching!to!genetic!catalogues.!

Furthermore,!a!SRW!epigenetic!ageing!assay!under!development!(Carroll!et!al.!unpublished!

data)!could!be!combined!with!satellite!tagging!data!to!allow!for!better!specification!of!habitat!

use!patterns!between!different!age!classes.!!

The!Workshop!further!discussed!that!while!some!telemetry!studies!with!an!excellent!scientific!

basis!can!be!successful!and!provide!valuable!information,!the!work!is!often!not!feasible!to!carry!

out!due!to!logistical!or!geographical!constraints.!Recent!work!in!South!Georgia!(Islas!Georgias!

del!Sur)!provides!an!example!of!the!difficulties!due!to!the!logistical,!operational!and!

environmental!complexity!of!the!prevailing!field!area!(Jackson!et!al.!2018).!!

With!respect!to!stable!isotope!analysis,!the!Workshop!discussed!that!the!isotopic!turnover!rates!

within!skin!samples!of!SRW!are!currently!assumed!to!be!two-three!months,!based!on!inferences!

from!a!blue!whale!(Balaenoptera(musculus)!study!(Busquets-Vass!et!al.!2017).!Therefore,!

samples!collected!on!wintering!grounds!likely!reflect!the!last!major!foraging!area!visited!by!

whales!prior!to!migration.!The!Workshop!noted!that!museums!can!be!a!repository!for!both!

baleen!and!skin!samples!for!isotope!analysis.!Kemper!offered!assistance!to!the!IWC-SORP!

community!in!the!identification!of!such!datasets!for!SRWs!in!Australia;!this!was!welcomed!by!

the!Workshop.!!

The!Workshop!further!discussed!the!known!prey!items!of!SRWs.!The!only!SRW!stomach!

contents!data!available!is!from!illegal!Soviet!catches!from!the!1950s-1960s.!This!work!showed!

that!the!SRW!fed!on!Antarctic!krill!at!high!latitudes;!on!copepods!at!lower!latitudes;!and!a!

mixture!of!both!prey!in!whales!caught!between!40ºS!and!50ºS!(Tormosov!et!al.!1998).!However,!

little!is!known!about!present!day!prey!of!the!SRW.!Ongoing!relevant!work!includes!the!

collection!of!active!acoustic!data!to!map!prey!fields!in!the!vicinity!of!SRW!at!South!Georgia!(Islas!

Georgias!del!Sur)!(Jackson!et!al,!unpublished!data).!DNA!diet!work!is!also!ongoing!on!

opportunistically!collected!faecal!samples!from!Auckland!Islands!and!South!African!wintering!

grounds!(see!IWC-SORP!report!2020,!SC68b!for!more!information).!

3.2 OBJECTIVE'2:'DEMOGRAPHICS'

3.2.1 Southern'Right'Whale'Population'Models'(Presenter:'Justin'Cooke)'

Cooke!presented!some!issues!associated!with!the!fitting!of!SRW!population!models,!illustrated!

using!the!data!collected!from!the!Argentinian!population!at!Península!Valdés!by!Rowntree’s!

team!since!1971.!The!different!components!of!the!population!!‒!adult!females!at!various!stages!

of!their!reproductive!cycle,!juveniles!and!adult!males!‒!are!differentially!represented!in!the!data!

sets,!and!these!different!variables!also!change!over!time.!!The!differences!probably!result!from!a!

mixture!of!behavioural!factors!‒!which!animals!enter!the!study!area!‒!but!possibly!also!to!some!

extent!from!the!bias!of!researchers!who!focus!on!the!whales!of!most!interest,!particularly!

mother-calf!pairs.!No!component!of!the!population,!not!even!mother-calf!pairs,!was!subject!to!a!

100%!sampling!rate.!The!data!also!showed!significant!individual!heterogeneity!in!the!

availability!of!whales!for!sampling.!!A!particular!issue!was!whether!whales!whose!calves!die!

young!were!sampled!with!or!without!the!calf.!!In!the!early!years,!there!were!many!apparent!

five-year!calving!intervals,!which!were!believed!to!represent!cryptic!calf!loss,!but!hardly!any!

two-year!intervals.!!In!the!2000s,!two-year!intervals!began!to!be!observed!in!significant!

numbers,!followed!by!calf!death.!!The!“normal”!interval,!following!a!successfully!weaned!calf,!

remained!at!three!years.!!A!consequence!of!all!these!factors!is!that!the!data!could!be!explained!

by!a!fairly!simple!biological!model,!but!a!fairly!complex!sampling!model!was!required!to!relate!

the!observed!data!to!the!happenings!in!the!population.!Calf!survival!rates!in!this!population!

were!high!in!most!years,!but!lower!in!some!years;!the!fluctuations!are!likely!related!to!ecological!

factors!that!merit!further!investigation.!

3.2.2 Development'of'a'common'model'to'assess'SRW'population'demographics'across'

wintering'grounds'(Presenter:'Prof.'Doug'Butterworth)'

A!simple!model!was!presented!by!Butterworth!with!the!aim!to!be!applicable!across!a!number!of!

SRW!populations,!in!particular!so!as!to!provide!results!that!can!be!compared!across!these!

populations!(Annex!C).!For!this!reason,!the!model!is!designed!to!require!only!very!limited!data,!

specifically!a!time!series!of!comparable!annual!calf!counts!without!too!many!missing!values.!

Right!whales!are!assumed!to!calve!at!either!three-!or!five-year!intervals,!with!the!associated!

proportions!changing!over!time.!Similarly,!the!value!of!the!parameter!(X)!reflecting!the!product!

of!the!proportion!of!births!that!are!female!and!the!first-year!survival!rate!may!change!over!time.!

An!initial!application!to!calf!count!data!for!the!South!African!right!whale!population!suggests!

that!such!data!do!not!contain!sufficient!information!for!annual!variations!in!both!the!X!

parameter!and!in!the!annual!proportion!of!calving!intervals!that!are!three!years!to!be!estimated.!

Fixing!X!and!estimating!annual!changes!in!the!proportion!of!three-year!calving!intervals!only!

appears!to!provide!the!best!performing!approach.!

3.2.3 Synthesis'and'discussion'on'demographics'

A!multi-ocean!assessment!of!demographic!parameters!is!required!to!investigate!the!changes!to!

calving!intervals!in!recent!years!in!a!comparable!framework,!with!the!aim!to!assess!linkages!

between!population!parameters!and!climate!variates.!The!development!of!!the!common!model!

has!progressed!with!support!of!the!IWC!SC!SH!sub-committee!(IWC!2019,!2020),!a!version!of!

which!was!presented!on!by!Butterworth.!In!contrast,!Cooke!provided!an!overview!of!SRW!

models!used!to!estimate!population!parameters!to!date,!particularly!for!the!Península!Valdés!

10!

wintering!ground.!The!Workshop!discussed!the!different!approaches!to!modelling!

demographics.!The!simple!common!model!proposed!to!use!count!data!and!assumed!constant!

survival!and!calving!interval!probabilities!over!time!and!could!be!compatible!with!short-term!

datasets.!It!was!noted!that!a!common!model!would!allow!for!comparison!of!data!from!various!

wintering!grounds!(i.e.!Annex!D),!whereas!the!comprehensive!models!require!long-term!

datasets,!are!much!more!complicated!to!implement!and!are!specific!to!individual!wintering!

grounds!(i.e.,!Cooke!et!al.!2001;!Brandão!et!al.!2018).!An!approach!was!encouraged!that!allowed!

for!a!comparable!framework!with!the!option!to!use!a!simple!model!or!to!build!on!the!simple!

model!with!more!parameters!if!datasets!were!available.!For!example,!the!Workshop!highlighted!

the!importance!of!being!able!to!detect!changes!to!calving!intervals!from!three!to!four!years,!to!

reflect!recent!increases!in!observed!in!calving!intervals!reported!by!Vermeulen!et!al.!(2018)!and!

Charlton!et!al.!(2018!SC67B_for!Info),!which!would!require!a!more!complex!model!than!the!

simple!common!one!described.!

The!Workshop!agreed!that!an!important!step!forward!for!a!multi-ocean!assessment!of!

population!demographics!was!to!assess!biases!in!each!wintering!ground!dataset,!driven!by!

sampling!effort,!proportion!of!wintering!population!included!in!each!survey,!and!connectivity!

between!wintering!grounds!(see!Section!5.2).!Connectivity!is!being!addressed!by!the!

comparison!of!the!Argentinian!and!Brazilian!photo-ID!catalogue,!funded!by!an!IWC!grant!during!

IWC!SC68A,!and!the!Australasian!Right!Whale!Photo!Identification!Catalogue,!a!National!

Environmental!Science!Programme!funded!to!combine!major!SRW!photo!ID!databases!in!

Australia.!Furthermore,!as!populations!such!as!those!on!the!Argentinean!and!South!African!SRW!

wintering!grounds!may!potentially!mix!and!mate!on!shared!feeding!grounds!(Carroll!et!al.!

2019),!this!could!also!provide!an!avenue!for!mating!on!shared!migratory!corridors.!The!

Workshop!discussed!how!migratory!movements!between!wintering!grounds!could!be!factored!

into!the!population!models,!in!order!to!reduce!bias!in!abundance!and!trend!estimates.!It!was!

noted!that!immigration!could!be!included!as!a!parameter!in!complex!models!to!account!for!this.!

The!population!status!and!monitoring!of!two!poorly!recovering!regions!were!discussed:!Chile-

Peru!and!Southeast!Australia.!While!SRW!sightings!in!Chile!are!very!rare,!acoustic!data!are!

being!collected!with!the!aim!of!identifying!priority!areas!for!future!research!(Annex!E).!Further!

acoustic!data!exist!from!a!study!that!focused!on!blue!and!fin!whales!that!could!be!reanalysed!for!

SRW!detections!(Buchan!et!al.!2014). In!addition,!there!is!difficulty!in!collecting!biopsy!and!

photo-ID!data!because!current!Chilean!legislation!requires!any!boats!in!the!vicinity!of!a!SRW!to!

depart!the!area!upon!sighting!the!whale.!With!respect!to!Southeast!Australia,!data!suggests!the!

population!is!still!small!(Stamation!et!al.!2020)!and!there!has!been!no!increase!in!calving!rates!

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since!1985!(Watson,!unpublished!data).!The!workshop!agreed'that!dedicated!funding!for!a!

long-term!monitoring!project!in!south!eastern!Australia!was!a!high'priority.!

The!Workshop!agreed'the!need!for!standardising!processes!and!protocols!for!photo-ID!

matching!and!databasing,!to!identify!biases!between!different!datasets!to!inform!population!

modelling.!In!regards!to!this,!a!photo-ID!working!group!was!formed!and!a!circumpolar!SRW!

photo-ID!consortium!was!proposed!(see!Section!5.2).!The!Workshop!encouraged!the!working!

group!to!progress!the!consortium!and!explore!avenues!for!standardising!matching!and!database!

storage!for!SRW,!including!between!ship-based!side!on!and!drone/aerial!top-down!

photographs.!The!Flukebook!Artificial!Intelligence!project!funded!by!NOAA!could!be!a!useful!

tool!along!with!other!regional!catalogues!including!the!Australasian!Right!Whale!Photo!

Identification!Catalogue!(ARWPIC)!and!the!NARW!Consortium!and!photo-ID!database.!It!was!

noted!that!there!is!already!an!existing!circumpolar!genomic!collaboration!that!is!using!

molecular!methods!to!assess!connectivity!(e.g.,!Carroll!et!al.!2020).!

3.3 OBJECTIVE'3:'HEALTH''

3.3.1 Photogrammetry'body'condition'assessments'(Presenter:'Fredrik'Christiansen)'

This!presentation!focussed!on!the!third!aim!of!IWC-SORP!SRW!related!to!linking!body!condition!

(i.e.!health!assessment!indicators)!to!population!dynamics!(i.e.!long-term!monitoring!data).!

Christiansen!first!provided!an!introduction!to!aerial!photogrammetry!techniques,!focusing!in!

particular!on!unmanned!aerial!vehicles!(UAVs).!Christiansen!spoke!of!the!different!metrics!that!

can!be!used!and!the!benefits!and!limitations!of!UAV!aerial!photogrammetry.!He!then!went!

through!a!series!of!case!studies!based!on!his!current!and!past!research!projects!focusing!on!

body!condition!in!relation!to!reproduction!in!right!whales.!The!first!study!focused!on!SRWs!in!

South!Australia!where!body!condition!of!females!was!linked!to!the!growth!rates!of!their!calves.!

In!the!second!study,!he!presented!an!ongoing!“global”!comparison!of!right!whale!body!

condition,!which!highlights!the!poor!condition!of!the!North!Atlantic!right!whales,!a!population!

that!is!currently!in!decline.!Last,!he!presented!an!ongoing!study!in!Península!Valdés,!Argentina,!

where!they!are!trying!to!link!calf!body!condition!to!survival.!The!presentation!ended!with!a!

discussion!about!future!potential!work!in!linking!body!condition!to!vital!rates,!prey!availability!

and!climate.!

3.3.2 Assessing'energetic'cost'of'entanglement'to'the'fecundity'of'North'Atlantic'right'

whales'(Presenter:'Michael'Moore)'

Moore,!presenting!on!behalf!of!van!der!Hoop,!discussed!assessing!energetic!cost!of!

entanglement!to!the!fecundity!of!NARW.!This!species!has!poor!fecundity,!and!the!majority!have!

12!

been!entangled!once!or!more!(Knowlton!et!al.!2012).!These!entangled!animals!are!free-

swimming,!with!a!consequent!significant!loss!of!body!condition!in!chronic!cases.!To!estimate!the!

energy!cost!of!entanglement,!drag!forces!from!entangling!gear!were!measured!with!a!

tensiometer!(Van!der!Hoop!et!al.!2016).!Results!showed!that!drag!forces!varied!with!gear!

configuration.!If!animals!do!not!slow!down,!entanglement!increases!power!output,!leading!to!

entangled!whales!having!thinner!blubber!at!death.!The!energy!cost!is!comparable!to!other!life!

history!events,!and!of!similar!duration!(van!der!Hoop!et!al.!2017).!The!team!plans!to!extrapolate!

costs!to!other!cases,!where!no!gear!is!in!hand,!to!model!the!cost!of!entanglement!at!the!species!

level!in!the!context!of!normal!life!history!demands.!Better!data!on!the!energetic!values!for!

foraging,!reproduction,!migration,!basal!metabolic!rate,!and!stressors!such!as!entanglement,!

noise!and!climate!change!are!needed.!With!these!data,!it!should!be!possible!to!understand!the!

extent!to!which!entanglement!contributes!to!net!fecundity,!in!the!context!of!the!dynamics!of!

foraging!success.!This!in!turn!will!predict!the!extent!to!which!fecundity!can!be!enhanced!by!

meaningful!reduction!of!entanglement.!This!information!could!lead!US!and!Canadian!

management!to!understand!that!they!need!to!substantially!reduce!morbidity!as!well!as!

reversing!their!failure!to!reduce!mortality,!if!the!species!is!to!survive.!

3.3.3 Physiological'indicators'of'health'(Presenter:'Joanna'Kershaw)'

Blubber!biopsies,!typically!taken!with!a!dart!deployed!either!with!a!cross-bow!or!a!modified!air!

rifle,!provide!a!powerful!opportunity!to!quantify!physiological!biomarkers!in!the!tissue,!as!

Kershaw!discussed!in!this!presentation.!Biomarkers!are!naturally!occurring!molecules,!genes,!or!

characteristics!that!can!provide!information!on!a!particular!metabolic!pathway!or!process.!!A!

recent!pilot!study!at!the!University!of!St!Andrews!(Scotland)!aimed!to!validate!the!use!of!

commercially!available!ELISA!kits!to!quantify!progesterone!and!cortisol!in!SRW!blubber!

biopsies!as!biomarkers!of!reproductive!and!physiological!state,!respectively!(Kershaw!et!al.!

2019).!Six!blubber!samples!collected!incidental!to!skin!sampling!of!SRW!in!the!Campbell!Islands!

in!2016,!were!used!to!extract,!quantify!and!validate!steroid!concentrations!in!the!tissue.!Quality!

assessment!and!quality!control!(QA-QC)!checks!showed!that!a!commercially!available!cortisol!

ELISA,!used!in-house!for!the!analysis!of!samples!from!other!marine!mammals,!accurately!

quantified!cortisol!in!these!samples.!!A!commercially!available!progesterone!ELISA!did!not!pass!

the!necessary!QA-QC!checks,!likely!because!the!concentrations!measured!in!the!samples!were!

too!low!(Kershaw!et!al.!2019).!Future!work!will!validate!the!use!of!a!commercially!available!

progesterone!ELISA!for!SRW!samples.!Other!recent!work!investigating!steroid!concentrations!in!

NARW!have!used!ELISAs!to!quantify!hormones!in!blow!samples.!However,!due!to!the!role!of!

steroid!hormones!in!multiple!physiological!processes,!and!variability!in!concentration!among!

individuals,!data!on!single!hormones!in!these!samples!are!difficult!to!interpret.!For!this!reason,!

13!

liquid!chromatography/mass!spectrometry!methods!have!recently!been!used!to!simultaneously!

quantify!a!full!suite!of!steroid!hormones!in!humpback!whale!blubber.!This!full!hormone!‘profile’!

approach!can!provide!a!huge!amount!of!information!on!steroidogenesis,!and!is!vital!when!

aiming!to!map!endocrinological!pathways,!and!better!interpret!steroid!concentrations!

measured!in!the!samples.!Another!growing!field!of!study!uses!proteomic!and!transcriptomic!

approaches!to!investigate!the!use!of!adipokines!as!biomarkers!of!physiological!and!energetic!

state.!Adipokines!are!cell!signalling!proteins!that!are!secreted!by!adipose!tissue!and!are!known!

to!contribute!towards!the!regulation!of!a!huge!variety!of!tissue!specific!and!systemic!metabolic!

processes!including,!for!example,!the!regulation!of!appetite!and!energy!balance!and!immune!

system!function.!A!handful!of!studies!have!started!to!investigate!these!proteins!in!cetaceans!and!

phocid!seals.!These!show!huge!potential!to!provide!insights!into!the!multifunctional!nature!of!

blubber!tissue!and!identify!biomarkers!of!individual!health.!

3.3.4 Synthesis'and'discussion'on'health'

The!Workshop!discussed!the!difference!between!quantitative!and!qualitative!health!

assessments.!Quantitative!methodology!involves!measuring!body!condition!through!

morphometric!measurements!of!whales!taken!via!drone,!while!qualitative!visual!health!

assessments!involve!trained!observers!measuring!body!condition!through!scoring!of!visual!

features!such!as!skin!condition!and!presence!of!cyamids.!The!Workshop!strongly'supported!

the!comparative!work!and!ongoing!data!collection!of!photogrammetry!data!and!quantitative!

health!assessments,!exemplified!in!a!recent!global!comparative!study!(Christiansen!et!al.!2020).!

Furthermore,!a!qualitative!methodology!for!visual!health!assessments!in!SRW,!created!by!South!

African!and!Australian!researchers!(Hoerbst,!Vermeulen,!Charlton,!Christiansen),!based!on!

Pettis!et!al.!(2004)!was!discussed.!It!was!recognised!that!there!is!a!need!to!compare!qualitative!

and!quantitative!methods!to!enable!comparisons!across!wintering!grounds!and!datasets,!while!

acknowledging!historical!datasets!may!be!limited!to!qualitative!analyses.!!

The!Workshop!discussed!a!range!of!topics!pertinent!to!proteomic!studies!and!the!use!of!blubber!

biopsy!sampling!and!biomarkers.!The!potential!influence!of!human!induced!contamination!and!

water!borne!pollutants!on!biomarkers!was!discussed.!For!commonly!assayed!steroid!hormones!

the!impact!of!contaminants!is!likely!to!be!low!in!comparison!with!biological!processes!such!as!

reproductive!maturity!and!pregnancy.!!

The!Workshop!encouraged!concurrent!collection!of!biopsy!sampling!with!photogrammetry!to!

gather!quantifiable!data!on!whale!health!such!as!body!condition!and!reproductive!state.!!This!

was!linked!to!a!general!consideration!discussed!by!the!Workshop,!that!body!condition!would!

vary!across!the!migratory!cycle!and!depending!on!demographic!class,!even!in!healthy!whales.!

14!

Therefore,!being!able!to!detect!changes!in!body!condition!that!are!indicative!of!individual!or!

population!level!challenges,!such!as!a!decrease!in!prey!availability,!requires!an!understanding!of!

‘normal’!changes!in!body!condition!over!the!migratory!cycle!and!across!age!and!demographic!

classes.!

While!the!Workshop!discussed!efforts!to!validate!single!steroid!hormones!assays!from!SRW!

biopsy!samples!(Kershaw!et!al.!2019),!work!was!highlighted!that!showed!multi-hormone!

profiles!are!more!informative!for!accurately!assessing!the!demographic!state!of!baleen!whales!

(Dalle!Luche!et!al.!2020).!It!was!noted!that!strandings!provided!the!opportunity!to!collect!

material!with!which!to!test!and!develop!steroid!hormone!assays,!such!as!blubber!and!ear!plugs!

(Trumble!et!al.!2013).!The!Workshop!recognised!that!there!is!a!need!for!standardised!necropsy!

sampling!protocols!and!data!sharing!platforms,!and!the!group!encouraged!international!

collaboration.!With!regards!to!necropsy,!the!group!agreed!it!was!a!high'priority!to!secure!

funding!to!cover!cost!of!necropsy!and!pathology!testing!within!regions!(see!Section!5.3).!!

3.4 OBJECTIVE'4:'UNDERESTANDING'CLIMATE'

3.4.1 The'Southern'Ocean'under'climate'change''

Presenter:'Andrew'Meijers'

Meijers!presented!on!the!international!coupled!model!inter-comparison!project!(CMIP),!which!

forms!the!basis!for!the!Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change!(IPCC)!projections!of!future!

climates!for!this!century!and!beyond.!The!present!iteration!(CMIP5)!consists!of!coupled!climate!

models!from!more!than!20!climate!modelling!groups!around!the!world,!includes!atmospheric!

chemistry!and!ocean!biogeochemistry!and!simulates!both!historical!hindcasts!and!multiple!

future!carbon!forcing!scenarios!under!a!variety!of!potential!climate!forcings;!totalling!almost!

two!PB!of!output.!As!we!stand!on!the!cusp!of!the!first!releases!of!the!next!generation!of!CMIP6!

models!and!over!an!order!of!magnitude!more!data,!this!presentation!reviewed!the!state!of!the!

art!in!climate!modelling!of!the!Southern!Ocean.!This!region!is!critical!for!global!climate!and!

highly!susceptible!to!climatic!change,!but!is!generally!poorly!represented!in!model!hindcasts!in!

terms!of!water!mass!properties,!sea-ice!extent!and!ocean!circulation.!In!particular!strong!sea!

surface!temperature!biases!are!a!wide!spread!problem.!In!future!projections!there!are!some!

uniform!trends!across!the!ensemble,!towards!strengthening!and!poleward!shifting!westerlies,!

increased!precipitation,!warming!and!freshening!surface!waters!and!sea!ice!loss.!However,!there!

is!a!wide!variance!between!models!even!in!these!trends,!and!dramatic!differences!in!future!

circulation!patterns,!the!trends!of!which!often!have!completely!different!signs!between!models.!

In!order!to!reduce!uncertainty!and!use!model!projections!as!input!to!higher!order!models!(e.g.!

15!

ecosystem!models)!it!is!necessary!to!understand!the!limitations!of!the!CMIP!ensemble!and!make!

use!of!techniques!such!as!emergent!constraints!to!increase!confidence!in!projections.!

3.4.2 Synthesis'and'discussion'on'climate'change'

The!participants!sought!clarification!from!Meijers!on!which!climate!models!can!predict!primary!

and!secondary!oceanic!productivity,!and!the!scale!at!which!such!projections!are!available.!When!

regional!projections!are!modelled!by!region,!and!incorporate!an!average!of!climate!models!and!

defined!boundary!conditions,!they!can!provide!more!reliable!projections.!Downscaling!also!

provides!a!means!to!add!regional!granularity!and!reduce!uncertainty.!CMIP5!and!CMIP6!models!

were!highlighted!as!a!good!choice!for!understanding!climate!projections!for!the!Southern!

Hemisphere,!as!these!models!incorporate!primary!productivity,!with!the!latter!likely!to!perform!

better.!

There!was!discussion!on!the!movement!of!Polar!(PF)!and!Subtropical!Fronts!(STF),!key!regions!

for!foraging!marine!predators!including!SRW,!under!future!climate!projections.!The!PF!is!

projected!to!move!along!with!couple!sea!surface!temperature!isotherms,!a!key!habitat!

parameter!that!can!have!implications!on!prevailing!environmental!conditions!and!in!turn,!

foraging!success!(Cristofari!et!al.!2018).!Likewise,!the!STF!may!shift!pole-ward!due!to!an!

increase!in!gyre!circulation!in!response!to!wind!stress!kernels!that!are!expected!to!increase!with!

climate!change.!However,!the!northern!boundary!of!the!STF!is!poorly!oceanographically!

defined,!due!to!the!density!compensating!driven!gradients!that!have!little!impact!on!the!

currents.!

The!Workshop!also!discussed!the!implications!of!recent!marine!heat!waves.!Such!events!have!

not!been!extensively!modelled!yet,!but!could!have!a!larger,!albeit!temporary,!impact!on!right!

whale!populations!compared!with!the!comparatively!incremental!shifts!from!climate!change.!

How!these!long-term!(changes!in!PF!and!STF)!and!potentially!short!term!(marine!heat!waves)!

climate!variations!should!be!incorporated!into!the!common!demographic!population!model!was!

discussed.!The!Workshop!agreed'that!moving!forward!the!application!of!common!models!

should!account!for!both!regional!and!global!climate!variables!to!account!for!the!variation!in!

long-term!and!short-term!climate!impacts!on!different!wintering!grounds.!Again,!the!discussion!

highlighted!the!need!to!progress!Objective!1;!understanding!foraging!habitat!and!ecology!(see!

Section!5.1).!

4.'SESSION'3:'DEVELOPING'THE'RIGHT'ROAD'MAP'FOR'SUCCESS'

4.1'BRINGING'THE'GOALS'AND'PRINCIPLES'OF'IWC-SORP'TO'THE'DISCUSSION'

16!

Presenter:'Helena'Herr'''

IWC-SORP!is!an!international,!non-lethal!cetacean!research!initiative!that!enhances!the!delivery!

of!science!to!the!IWC!through!collaboration,!cooperation!and!coordination.!It!was!established!in!

2009!with!the!aim!to!conduct!collaborative!non-lethal!research!in!order!to!maximise!

conservation!of!Southern!Ocean!whales!by!understanding!the!status,!health,!dynamics!and!

environmental!linkages!of!their!populations!and!the!threats!they!face.!The!SRW!theme!is!one!of!

seven!established!so!far.!To!date,!IWC-SORP!has!produced!144!peer!reviewed!papers!and!133!

IWC!Scientific!Committee!Papers!since!2009.!All!data!and!methods!are!shared!with!the!

international!scientific!community,!the!IWC!and!in!other!international!forums.!There!are!

currently!13!member!countries!in!the!Partnership.!IWC-SORP!warmly!welcomes!new!members.!

4.2'IDENTIFICATION'OF'DATA'GAPS'AND'RESEARCH'PRIORITIES'

The!workshop!reviewed!a!pre-populated!spreadsheet!summarising!information!on!the!research!

conducted!to!date!for!each!of!the!four!objectives!of!the!SRW!IWC-SORP!theme!per!wintering!

ground!as!well!as!the!South!Georgia!(Islas!Georgias!del!Sur)!and!Falkland!Islands!(Islas!

Malvinas)!habitats.!This!allowed!for!the!identification!of!data!gaps!and!research!prioritisation!as!

follows:!

(1) High!priority;!denoting!areas!where!there!is!little!to!no!progress!or!funding,!and!where!

there!is!a!significant!data!gap!

(2) Medium!priority;!those!areas!where!there!is!progress!and!funding!established,!though!

the!data!gap!remains!significant,!and!!

(3) Low!priority;!representing!those!areas!where!a!substantial!amount!of!work!has!already!

been!completed.!!

The!priority!categories!identified!the!gaps!in!research!required!to!fulfil!IWC-SORP!theme!

objectives.!A!low!ranking!did!not!suggest!that!the!field!of!research!or!project!is!not!of!high!

priority,!but!that!substantial!work!is!already!complete!to!address!objectives,!or!that!it!is!perhaps!

less!relevant!for!addressing!specific!IWC-SORP!theme!objectives.!The!workshop!later!agreed!

that!the!weight!of!conservation!status!of!a!given!population!should!influence!the!priority.!

It!was!recognised!that!several!regions!that!were!historically!considered!to!be!calving!or!nursery!

grounds!still!show!limited!or!no!recovery,!including!Tristan!Da!Cunha/Gough!Island,!Namibia,!

Mozambique/Madagascar,!Southeast!Australia!and!Chile-Peru,!remain!the!least!well!

understood.!Chile-Peru!was!highlighted!as!being!subject!to!an!IWC!Conservation!Management!

Plan!(CMP)!(Galletti!Vernazzani!et!al.!2016).!It!was!recommended!that!research!on!these!

regions!be!made!a!high'priority'as!knowledge!gaps!exist!across!all!of!these!areas.!However,!in!

17!

most!cases,!this!lack!of!information!also!means!that!demographic!trends!and!their!links!to!

climate!change!cannot!be!investigated,!as!neither!foraging!ground!links!nor!population!

demography!are!characterised.!!

4.2.1'FORAGING'ECOLOGY'

4.2.1.1'Telemetry'

Given!that!there!is!considerable!ongoing!research!in!Argentina!that!is!funded!until!2020,!the!

workshop!agreed!that!this!region!is!considered!a!low!priority!in!comparison!to!the!others.!

Work!in!South!Africa!was!agreed!as!a!medium!priority!given!published!telemetry!work!(Mate!et!

al.!2011)!and!funds!likely!secured!for!telemetry!work.!The!workshop!agreed!that!the!high'

priority!areas!to!identify!foraging!grounds!through!satellite!tagging!are:!Brazil,!New!Zealand,!

Australia,!Uruguay,!South!Georgia!(Islas!Georgias!del!Sur)!and!the!Falkland!Islands!(Islas!

Malvinas)!given!no!or!limited!telemetry!data!from!these!regions!(e.g.!two!whales!from!NZ!and!

one!whale!from!SEA!tracked!offshore;!respectively,!(Mackay!et!al.!2020))!and!the!need!to!secure!

funding.!

General!principles!for!guiding!telemetry!work!were!discussed,!including!the!agreement!to!

follow!best-practice!guidelines!(Andrews!et!al.!2019).!In!this!regard,!the!Workshop!

recommended!the!deployment!of!tags!that!are!capable!of!capturing!dive!and!location!data,!

providing!information!both!on!migratory!movements!and!fine-scale!habitat!use.!Furthermore,!

reiterating!earlier!discussions,!the!workshop!agreed!that!telemetry!data!be!collected!across!

different!demographic!groups!as!much!as!possible,!in!addition!on!both!foraging!and!wintering!

grounds!where!feasible.!

4.2.1.2'Stable'isotopes'

The!Workshop!agreed!that!it!was!a!high'priority'to!identify!or!support!the!collection!of!

potential!prey!datasets,!to!increase!the!power!of!isotope!data!collected!from!wintering!SRWs!to!

resolves!foraging!ground!links!and!prey!species.!Stable!isotope!analysis!in!areas!where!studies!

have!already!been!carried!out,!or!are!underway!e.g.!New!Zealand,!Australia,!South!Africa,!

Argentina,!Brazil,!Falkland!Islands!(Islas!Malvinas)!and!South!Georgia!(Islas!Georgias!del!Sur)!

are!considered!a!medium!priority,!because!funding!has!already!been!obtained!to!progress!this!

work.!!

4.2.1.3'Satellite'imagery'

Very!high!resolution!(VHR)!satellite!imagery!(WorldView-3!satellite,!31cm!spatial!resolution)!

has!been!used!to!successfully!detect!SRWs!off!Península!Valdés!(Cubaynes!et!al.!2019).!

18!

Currently!limitations!of!this!method!include:!cost!of!commercial!imagery;!time!involved!in!

manual!processing;!high!wind!and!or!cloud!cover!during!image!capture;!and!lack!of!image!

contrast!between!whales!and!water.!Imagery!costs!can!be!significantly!reduced!by!using!

archived!images!and!taking!advantage!of!research!institute!rates!offered!under!the!

sustainability!goals!of!Maxar!(commercial!provider).!Manual!processing!may!be!reduced!by!

machine!learning!and!deep!learning!techniques,!and!algorithms!are!currently!being!developed!

by!the!British!Antarctic!Survey.!The!white!callosities!of!SRWs!may!help!detect!whales!in!

otherwise!low!contrast!images.!The!feasibility!of!using!VHR!satellite!imagery!to!detect!SRWs!has!

not!been!tested!in!offshore!environments!or!in!inshore!areas!around!the!south-east!coast!of!

Australia.!It!was!agreed!that!it!is!worth!exploring!this!method!further!to!determine!its!

usefulness!in!detecting!high!use!areas!of!SRWs!on!the!poorly!surveyed!south-east!coast!of!

Australia!and!in!offshore!environments.!!

4.2.1.4'Acoustics'

It!was!agreed!that!the!opportunities!for!assessing!the!distribution!of!SRW!in!the!Southern!

Ocean!using!the!Southern!Ocean!hydrophone!network!and!Australian!Ocean!Data!Network!-!

Integrated!Marine!Observing!System!should!be!investigated!with!high'priority.!The!use!of!

automated!analysis!and!coding!should!be!considered,!as!well!as!the!detectability!of!SRW!in!

terms!of!rate!and!propagation!of!vocalisations.!High'priority!was!given!to!analysing!active!

acoustics!data!collected!in!South!Georgia!(Islas!Georgias!del!Sur)!and!to!applying!acoustic!

technology!to!increasing!our!understanding!of!SRW!presence!and!distribution!off!the!Falkland!

Islands!(Islas!Malvinas).!

4.2.1.5'Habitat'modelling'of'foraging'grounds'

Foraging!habitat!modelling!conducted!to!date!has!relied!on!historical!whaling!data!(Torres!et!al.!

2013;!González!Carman!et!al.!2019),!which!is!limited!in!resolution!and!may!not!reflect!

contemporary!foraging!ecology!of!SRW.!It!was!therefore!agreed!that!a!high'priority!is!to!

undertake!habitat!modelling!using!all!available!telemetry!data!and!link!this!to!environmental!

variables.!More!generally,!the!workshop!agreed!it!should!be!a!priority!to!compile!a!review!

paper!to!evaluate!past!and!present!knowledge!of!right!whale!diets!and!collaborate!with!experts!

engaged!in!potential!prey!species!abundance!and!distribution!to!help!with!understanding!SRW!

habitat!selection!(See!Section!5).!!

4.2.2'DEMOGRAPHICS'

4.2.2.1'Photo-ID'and'genetic'monitoring'programmes'

19!

The!Workshop!discussed!the!importance!of!monitoring!to!increasing!knowledge!in!regions!with!

poor!recovery!and!little!knowledge!of!distribution!and!recovery,!and!the!continuation!of!long-

term!datasets!that!are!needed!to!develop!population!models!that!can!incorporate!health!and!

climate!co-variates.!A!high'priority'was!given!to!the!continuation!of!long-term!photo-ID!and!

genetic!monitoring!studies!in!Australia,!Argentina,!New!Zealand!and!South!Africa.!The!

Workshop!recognised!that!the!southeast!and!southwest!Australian!wintering!grounds!are!

managed!distinctly!due!to!genetic!differentiation!and!differences!in!recovery,!and!

recommended!that!a!dedicated!monitoring!programme,!potentially!including!systematic!aerial!

surveys,!be!established!for!the!critically!endangered!southeast!Australian!population!with!high'

priority.!!

The!workshop!prioritised!the!need!to!collate!existing!photo!ID!datasets!into!national!or!

regional!repositories.!The!completion!of!the!Australian!Right!Whale!Photo!Identification!

Catalogue!(ARWPIC)!is!encouraged,!including!sourcing!funding!required!to!merge!outstanding!

datasets!into!ARWPIC,!such!as!historical!data!from!South!Australian!Museum,!Head!of!Bight!and!

additional!data!from!calving!grounds!in!southwest!Australia.!The!workshop!agreed!that!it!is!a!

high!priority!to!complete!the!cross-match!of!the!Brazilian!and!Argentina!datasets,!currently!

partially!funded!through!the!IWC.!In!a!related!discussion,!the!Workshop!strongly'

recommended!the!development!and!funding!of!a!strict!protocol!to!process,!print!and!store!

archival!photo-ID!data.!This!became!a!sub-committee!action!(see!Section!5.2).!

4.2.2.2'Population'demographic'modelling'

Demographic!modelling!draws!on!available!photo-ID,!genetic!ID!and!sightings!data.!Both!

Argentina!and!South!Africa!have!established!population!models!and!demographic!databases!and!

are!considered!a!medium!priority.!The!group!agreed!that!moving!in!forward!the!high'priority!

is!the!demographic!modelling!for!Australia!and!New!Zealand,!which!have!long!term!datasets,!

after!which!modelling!attempts!should!be!made!for!Brazil,!Chile!and!South!East!Australia,!where!

data!is!more!sporadic!and!opportunistic.!High'priority!was!given!to!the!development!of!a!

common!model!to!assess!demographics!in!a!comparative!framework!for!multi-ocean!

assessment!and!assessing!links!to!climate!variates!(see!section!5.2)!

4.2.3'HEALTH'

4.2.3.1'Photogrammetry/Qualitative'visual'health'assessments'

The!Workshop!recommended!that!the!photogrammetry!and!photograph-based!visual!health!

assessment!methods!be!standardised!across!populations!and!studies.!Visual!health!assessments!

have!also!been!completed!for!South!Georgia!(Islas!Georgias!del!Sur)!and!are!underway!for!

20!

Australia!and!South!Africa,!so!these!were!given!a!medium!priority.!While!substantial!progress!

has!been!made!in!Argentina!on!assessing!health,!the!Workshop!recommended!this!region!was!

a!high'priority!for!future!work!under!the!CMP!given!the!recent!die-offs.!High'priority!was!

given!to!continuation!of!photogrammetry!work!in!wintering!grounds,!and!its!combination!with!

other!tools!including!stable!isotopes,!genetic!sex!ID!and!linkages!with!long-term!monitoring!

datasets!as!a!way!to!assess!linkages!between!health,!reproduction!and!climate.!

4.2.3.2'Physiological'indicators'of'health'

The!Workshop!discussed!the!need!to!reconcile!photogrammetry/visual!health!assessments!and!

hormone/proteomic!indicators!of!health.!Therefore,!it!was!agreed!that!where!possible,!data!

collection!methods!should!be!combined,!including!photogrammetry,!biopsy,!visual!health!data!

and!breath!sampling.!Furthermore,!to!ensure!that!health!metrics!for!different!demographic!

classes!are!obtained,!the!group!agreed'it!was!important!to!collect!combined!data!from!different!

sexes!and!reproductive!states!across!populations.!It!was!discussed!that!where!possible!archival!

blubber!data!should!be!acquired!and!analysed,!e.g.,!to!validate!assays.!In!addition,!the!Workshop!

recommended!the!collection!of!faecal!samples!where!possible!for!both!health!and!diet!

purposes,!although!it!was!recognised!this!may!be!limited!as!field!work!is!primarily!on!wintering!

grounds.!

4.2.3.3'Anthropogenic'threats,'strandings'and'necropsy'

As!the!numbers!of!right!whales!increase!so!will!mortalities,!so!it!is!important!to!begin!planning!

now.!The!Workshop!discussed!the!importance!of!understanding!and!quantifying!anthropogenic!

treats!to!SRW!populations,!including!ship!strike!and!entanglement,!retrospectively!and!going!

forward.!The!Workshop!recommended!that!quantifying!threats!in!all!wintering!grounds!should!

be!set!as!a!priority.!The!Workshop!also!recommended'that!the!development!and!funding!of!

stranding,!necropsy!and!pathology!testing!should!be!a!high'priority!across!all!regions.!

Furthermore,!the!different!available!necropsy!protocols!were!discussed,!including!those!

developed!by!the!North!Atlantic!right!whale!consortium,!Argentinean!researchers!involved!in!

the!die-off!response,!and!general!IWC!necropsy!protocols.!It!was!recommended!that!collation!

of!these!protocols!and!methods!that!can!be!employed!alongside!capacity!building,!together!with!

a!central!database!to!house!necropsy!results!(see!section!5.3).!Such!methods!should!also!include!

guidance!on!best!practice!on!photographing!dead!right!whales.!

4.2.4'CLIMATE'

The!Workshop!recognised!that!there!has!to!be!substantial!progress!on!Objectives!1-3!to!enable!

linkages!with!climate!change!to!be!assessed.!Regardless,!it!was!a!high'priority!that!the!

21!

correlation!of!demographic!parameters!with!climatic!indices!be!investigated!(see!section!5.2).!

To!this!end,!the!Workshop!(1)!encouraged!collaboration!with!other!research!groups!studying!

the!impact!of!climate!on!other!baleen!whales!or!species!niches!similar!to!SRW;!and!(2)!placed!a!

high'priority!on!collaborating!with!experts!engaged!in!researching!prey!abundance!and!(3)!

recommended!that!the!sub-committee!on!climate!should!identify!the!most!important!

demographic!parameters!or!indices!to!be!used!in!future!work!(Section!5.2).!It!was!agreed!that!a!

time!frame!of!two!years!be!given!to!reassess!what!progress!can!be!made!towards!Objective!4.!

5.'PROPOSED'WORKING'GROUPS'AND'ACTIONS'

Working!groups!were!formed!for!each!of!the!four!objectives.!This!is!a!summary!of!proposed!

working!groups!and!actions!to!progress!new!research!activities!under!each!objective,!that!were!

agreed!or!recommended!by!Workshop.!!

5.1'FORAGING'ECOLOGY'

• The!workshop!agreed'it!should!be!a!priority'to!develop!a!working!group!that!will!

compile!a!review!paper!to!evaluate!past!and!present!knowledge!of!right!whale!diets.!!

• The!workshop!acknowledged!the!importance!of!historical!museum!skin!and!blubber!

samples!for!genetic!and!isotope!analysis,!and!agreed'funding!should!be!sought!to!

inventory,!access!and!analyse!such!samples.!Kemper!kindly!offered!to!identify!museums!

around!Australia!holding!appropriate!samples.!!

5.2'DEMOGRAPHICS'

• The!IWC!SC!SH!sub-committee!working!group!on!‘Multi-ocean!assessment!of!

demographics!and!links!to!climate!variates’,!co-convened!by!Vermeulen!and!Charlton!

submitted!an!IWC-SORP!proposal!in!January!2020!to!progress!the!development!of!a!

common!model!to!enable!the!multi-ocean!assessment!of!demographic!parameters!and!

links!to!climate!variates.!The!proposal!also!included!the!establishment!of!a!photo-ID!

consortium!and!a!desktop!review!of!climate!variates!appropriate!for!modelling!links!to!

demographics.!The!Workshop!encouraged!the!proposal!submission!and!progress!of!

this!work.!

• The!Workshop!supported!the!establishment'of!a!circumpolar'SRW'photo-ID'

consortium,!which!was!created!during!the!WMMC!and!led!by!Vermeulen,!Rowntree,!

Hamilton,!Charlton.!Watson!and!Kemper.!The!consortium!aims!to!develop!standardised!

processes!and!protocols!for!photo-ID!matching,!including!between!side-on!and!top-

down!images,!and!sightings!databases!as!recommended!by!the!Workshop,!to!enable!

SRW!photo-ID!data!to!be!comparable!on!a!circumpolar!level.!The!working!agreed!that!it!

22!

would!meet!annually!and!Hamilton!and!Rowntree!agreed!to!move!forward!with!a!

funding!application!for!the!work.!!

• The!Workshop!agreed!that!in!order!to!achieve!a!global!comparison!of!demographics,!a!

priority!would!be!to!compile!a!review!paper!of!the!wintering!ground!photo-ID!and!

genetic!monitoring!datasets,!areas,!parameters!and!modelling!techniques!to!identify!

biases!and!understand!available!data.!

5.3'HEALTH'

• The!Workshop!agreed'that!a!framework!should!be!developed!from!the!available!data!on!

body!condition!and!reproductive!success!across!SRW!and!NARW!to!understand!the!

relationship!between!body!size,!reproductive!maturity,!and!the!ability!of!females!to!get!

pregnant!and!successfully!gestate.!This!framework!could!then!be!used!with!assumptions!

about!energetics!to!look!at!correlations!between!body!condition,!reproductive!output!

and!climate!indices.!!

• The!Workshop!recommended!the!formation!of!a!working'group!on!necropsy!

protocols!that!included!Kemper,!to!also!include!or!liaise!with!Argentine!researchers!

given!their!experience!with!necropsy!protocols.!The!necropsy!working!group!should!

collate!existing!necropsy!and!sample!archive!protocols!for!NARW!and!SRW;!and!collate!

or!develop!guidelines!for!the!implementation!of!necropsies!possible!at!different!levels!of!

capacity.!

5.4'CLIMATE'

• The!workshop!recommended!a!working!group!be!established!to!undertake!a!literature!

review!on!long-term!top!predator!and!prey!monitoring!programmes!in!the!Southern!

Hemisphere.!This!group!could!use!published!information!or!available!datasets!to!inform!

hypotheses!on!how!climate!change!could!impact!SRW,!by!(1)!assessing!potential!

demographic!response!variables!that!were!found!to!be!significantly!affected!by!climate!

variables!in!other!top!southern!ocean!predators;!(2)!understanding!what!model!prey!

variables!are!important!to!consider!and!(3)!what!climate!variables!are!important!to!both!

other!predators!and!to!prey.!The!Workshop!agreed!that!funding!for!an!IWC-SORP!

proposal!would!be!beneficial!to!formulate!a!literature!review.!Pendleton!agreed!to!

collate!information!from!participants!of!this!discussion!to!develop!a!proposal.!!

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS'

23!

The!Report!editors!would!like!to!thank!the!following!people!for!providing!information!on!the!

status!of!following!wintering!grounds!after!the!Workshop:!Stephanie!Martin:!Tristan!da!Cunha,!!

Jean!Paul!Roux:!Namibia;!Paula!Costa!Urrita!and!Rodrigo!García!Píngaro:!Uruguay.!

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submitted!by!Chile!and!Peru!April!2016.!Report!SC/66b/BRG/23!submitted!to!the!

Scientific!Committee!of!the!International!Whaling,!.!

González!Carman!V,!Piola!A,!O’Brien!TD,!Tormosov!DD,!Acha!EM.!2019.!Circumpolar!frontal!

systems!as!potential!feeding!grounds!of!Southern!Right!whales.!Progress!in!Oceanography!

176:102123.!Elsevier.!Available!from!https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102123.!

Graham!B,!Koch!P,!Newsome!SD,!McMahon!K,!Aurioles!D.!2010.!Using!isoscapes!to!trace!the!

movements!and!foraging!behavior!of!top!predators!in!oceanic!ecosystems.!Pages!299–318!

in!L.!Wang,!G.!S.!Okin,!and!S.!A.!Macko,!editors.!Isoscapes:!understanding!movement,!

pattern,!and!process!on!earth!through!isotope!mapping.!Springer.!

IWC.!2019.!Annex!H:!Report!of!the!Sub-Committee!on!Other!Southern!Hemisphere!Whale!

Stocks.!Journal!of!Cetacean!Research!and!Management!(Supp)!20.!

IWC.!2020.!Annex!H:!Report!of!the!Sub-Committee!on!Other!Southern!Hemisphere!Whale!

Stocks.!Journal!of!Cetacean!Research!and!Management!(Supp)!In'Press.!

Jackson!JA!et!al.!2018.!Sightings!and!acoustic!records!of!right!whales!collected!in!South!Georgia!

(Islas!Georgias!del!Sur)!waters!January-!February!2018.!Report!SC/67B/SH/20!submitted!

to!the!Scientific!Committee!of!the!International!Whaling!Commission,!Cambridge,!UK.!

Kershaw!JL,!Carroll!EL,!Torres!L,!Hall!A.!2019.!Steriod!hormone!extraction!and!quantification!

validation!in!Southern!right!whale!(Eubalaena(australis)!blubber!biopsy!samples.!Report!

SC/68A/SH/03!presented!to!the!Scientific!Committee!of!the!International!Whaling!

Commission,!Cambridge,!UK.!

Knowlton!AR,!Hamilton!PK,!Marx!MK,!Pettis!HM,!Kraus!SD.!2012.!Monitoring!North!Atlantic!

right!whale!Eubalaena(glacialis!entanglement!rates:!A!30!yr!retrospective.!Marine!Ecology!

Progress!Series!466:293–302.!

Mackay!A!et!al.!2020.!Satellite!derived!offshore!migratory!movements!of!southern!right!whales!

(Eubalaena(australis)!from!Australian!and!New!Zealand!wintering!grounds.!PLoS!One!In'

Press.!

25!

Mate!B,!Best!P,!Lagerquist!B,!Winsor!M.!2011.!Coastal,!offshore!and!migratory!movements!of!

South!African!right!whales!revealed!by!satellite!telemetry.!Marine!Mammal!Science!

27:455–476.!

McMahon!KW,!Newsome!SD.!2019.!Amino!Acid!Isotope!Analysis.!Pages!173–190!in!K.!A.!Hobson!

and!L.!I.!Wassenaar,!editors.!Tracking!Animal!Migration!with!Stable!IsotopesSecond!Edi.!

Elsevier!Inc.!Available!from!http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814723-8.00007-6.!

Newsome!S,!Clementz!M,!Koch!P.!2010.!Using!stable!isotope!biogeochemistry!to!study!marine!

mammal!ecology.!Marine!Mammal!Science!26:509–572.!

Pace!RM,!Corkeron!PJ,!Kraus!SD.!2017.!State-space!mark-recapture!estimates!reveal!a!recent!

decline!in!abundance!of!North!Atlantic!right!whales.!Ecology!and!Evolution:8730–8741.!

Available!from!http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ece3.3406.!

Pettis!HM,!Rolland!RM,!Hamilton!PK,!Brault!S,!Knowlton!AR,!Kraus!SD.!2004.!Visual!health!

assessment!of!North!Atlantic!right!whales!(Eubalaena(glacialis)!using!photographs.!

Canadian!Journal!of!Zoology!82:8–19.!Available!from!

http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/z03-207.!

Polito!MJ,!Hinke!JT,!Hart!T,!Santos!M,!Houghton!LA,!Thorrold!SR.!2017.!Stable!isotope!analyses!

of!feather!amino!acids!identify!penguin!migration.!Biology!letters!13:20170241.!

Stamation!K,!Watson!M,!Moloney!P,!Charlton!C,!Bannister!J.!2020.!Population!estimate!and!rate!

of!increase!of!southern!right!whales!Eubalaena(australis!in!southeastern!Australia.!

Endangered!Species!Research!41:373–383.!

Tormosov!D,!Mikhaliev!Y,!Best!P,!Zemsky!V,!Sekiguchi!M,!Brownell!R.!1998.!Soviet!catches!of!

Southern!right!whales!Eubalaena(australis!1951-1971.!Biological!Conservation!86:185–

197.!

Torres!LG,!Smith!TD,!Sutton!P,!Macdiarmid!A,!Bannister!J,!Miyashita!T.!2013.!From!exploitation!

to!conservation:!habitat!models!using!whaling!data!predict!distribution!patterns!and!threat!

exposure!of!an!endangered!whale.!Diversity!and!Distributions!19:1138–1152.!

Trumble!SJ,!Robinson!EM,!Berman-Kowalewski!M,!Potter!CW,!Usenko!S.!2013.!Blue!whale!

earplug!reveals!lifetime!contaminant!exposure!and!hormone!profiles.!Proceedings!of!the!

National!Academy!of!Sciences!of!the!United!States!of!America!110:16922–16926.!

van!der!Hoop!J,!Corkeron!P,!Moore!M.!2017.!Entanglement!is!a!costly!life-history!stage!in!large!

whales.!Ecology!and!Evolution!7:92–106.!

Van!der!Hoop!JM,!Corkeron!P,!Kenney!J,!Landry!S,!Morin!D,!Smith!J,!Moore!MJ.!2016.!Drag!from!

fishing!gear!entangling!North!Atlantic!right!whales.!Marine!Mammal!Science!32:619–642.!

Vermeulen!E,!Wilkinson!C,!Thornton!M,!Peters!IT,!Findlay!K,!Africa!S,!Town!C,!Africa!S.!2018.!

REPORT!ON!THE!MAMMAL!RESEARCH!INSTITUTE!WHALE!UNIT!SOUTHERN!RIGHT!

WHALE!SURVEY.!Report!SC/67B/SH/01!presented!to!the!Scientific!Committee!of!the!

26!

International!Whaling!Commission,!Cambridge,!UK.!

Zerbini!AN!et!al.!2018.!Satellite!tracking!of!Southern!right!whales!(Eubalaena(australis)!from!

Golfo!San!Matías,!Rio!Negro!Province,!Argentina.!Report!SC/67B/CMP17!to!the!Scientific!

Committee!of!the!International!Whaling!Commission,!Cambridge,!UK.!

' '

27!

Annex'A:'Workshop'Participant'List'

Macarena!Angelo:!maca.agrelo@gmail.com!!

Bob!Brownell:!robert.brownell@noaa.gov!

Doug!Butterworth:!doug.butterworth@uct.ac.za!!

Emma!Carroll:!carrollemz@gmail.com!!

Claire!Charlton:!claire.charlton@live.com.au!

Fredrik!Christiansen:!f.christiansen@live.se!!

Penny!Clarke:!penny@ukaht.org!!

Justin!Cooke:!jgc@cems.de!!

Peter!Corkeron:!pcorkeron@neaq.org!!

Sue!Gibbs:!sue.gibbs@bigpond.com!!

Karina!Groch:!karinagroch@gmail.com!

Philip!Hamilton:!phamilton@neaq.org!

Angus!Henderson:!afhender@gmail.com!

Helena!Herr:!helena.herr@uni-hamburg.de!!

Catherine!Kemper:!Catherine.Kemper@samuseum.sa.gov.au!

Joanna!Kershaw:!jk49@st-andrews.ac.uk!!

Christin!Khan:!christin.khan@gmail.com!

Andrew!J.S.!Meijers:!andmei@bas.ac.uk!

Michael!Moore:!mmoore@whoi.edu!!

Alice!Morrison:!alice.morrison3@gmail.com!

Susan!Nash:!s.bengtsonnash@griffith.edu.au!!

Petra!Neveceralova:!petra.neveceralova@natur.cuni.cz!!

Seth!Newsome:!newsome@unm.edu!!

Carlos!Olavarría:!carlitos.olavarria@gmail.com!

Dan!Pendleton:!dpendleton@neaq.org!

Will!Rayment:!will.rayment@otago.ac.nz!!

Maria!Vanesa!Reyes:!vanesa.reyes@cethus.org!!

Vicky!Rowntree:!rowntree@biology.utah.edu!!

Jon!Seger:!seger@math.utah.edu!!

Ben!Sellers:!ben.sellers@utas.edu.au!

Andreia!Sousa:!agsousa@fc.ul.pt!

Kasey!Stamation:!kasey.stamation@delwp.vic.gov.au!!

Gideon!van!den!Berg:!vandenberggideon@gmail.com!

Els!Vermeulen:!elsvermeulen5@gmail.com!

Mandy!Watson:!Mandy.Watson@delwp.vic.gov.au!

Caroline!Weir:!SWPO@conservation.org.fk!

Alex!Zerbini:!alex.zerbini@noaa.gov!

28!

Annex'B:'Agenda'

1. Introductory!Items:!Welcome!and!house!keeping!

2. The!right!advice!

2.1 Introduction!to!the!IWC-SORP!theme:!building!the!roadmap!to!success!

2.2 Inference!from!comparing!multiple!right!whale!populations:!lessons!learned!

3. The!right!tools!!

3.1 Objective!1:!foraging!ecology!

3.1.1 Telemetry!

3.1.2 Stable!Isotopes!

3.2 Objective!2:!Demographics!

3.2.1 Right!Whale!Population!Models!

3.2.2 Uniting!Australian,!South!African!and!South!American!data!to!estimate!

population!parameters!!

3.3 Objective!3:!Health!!

3.3.1 Photogrammetry!body!condition!assessments!!

3.3.2 Assessing!energetic!cost!of!entanglement!to!the!fecundity!of!North!Atlantic!right!

whales!!

3.3.3 Physiological!indicators!of!health!!

3.4 Objective!4:!Understanding!Climate!

3.4.1 The!Southern!Ocean!under!climate!change!!

4. Session!3:!Developing!the!right!road!map!for!success!!

4.1 Bringing!the!goals!and!principles!of!IWC-SORP!to!the!discussion!!

4.2 Identification!of!data!gaps!to!meet!objectives,!and!identification!of!best!tools!for!data!

gaps!!

4.3 Formalising!workplan:!integration!of!tools,!data!gaps!and!models!

4.4 Workshop!summary!and!re-cap!on!workshop!objectives/outputs!!

! !

29!

Annex'C:'Proposal'for'a'common'simple'and'widely'applicable'model'for'right'whale'

population'assessments'

D.S.(Butterworth(and(A.(Ross-Gillespie(

Summary'

A! simple! model! is! presented! whose! aim! is! to!be! applicable! across! a! number! of! right!

whale!populations,!in!particular!so! as! to!provide!results!that! can! be! compared!across!

these!populations.!For!this!reason,!the!model!is! designed!to! require!only!very!limited!

data,! specifically! a! time! series! of! comparable! annual! calf! counts! without! too! many!

missing!values.!Right!whales!are!assumed!to!calve!at!either!three-!or!five-year!intervals,!

with! the! associated! proportions! changing! over! time.! Similarly,! the! value! of! the!

parameter!(X)!reflecting!the!product!of!the!proportion!of!births!that!are!female!and!the!

first-year!survival! rate!may! change!over!time.! An! initial ! applicati on! to! calf! cou nt! data!

for! the! South! African! right! whale! population! suggests! that! such! data! do! not! contain!

sufficient!information!for!annual!variations!in!both!the!X!parameter!and!in!the!annual!

proportion! of! calving! intervals! that! are! three! years! to! be! estimated.! Fixing! X!and!

estimating! annual! changes! in! the! proportion! of! three-year! calving! intervals! only!

appears!to!provide!the!best!performing!approach.!!!!!

Introduction

The!basic!idea! underlying!this!document! is!to!develop!an!as-simple-as-possible!model!that!can!

be! applied! to! all! the! various! Southern! Hemisphere! right! whale! populations! to! assess!

demographics!and!allow!for!comparison!across!the!populations.!The!proposed!model!is!outlined!

in! this! document,! and! results! are! provided! for! a! preliminary! application! to! the!South! African!

right!whale!data!to!assess!feasibility.!The!full!details!of!the!model!proposed!can!be!found!in!the!

Appendix,!but!a!broad!outline!of!key!features!is!provided!here:!

• Two!key!population!components!are!estimated! for!each!year:!the!total!number!of!adult!

(past!the!age!at!first!parturition)!females!(

)!and!the!total!number!of!calving!females!

(

).!

• The!model! assumes!that!each!female! will!reproduce! after!either! a!three-year! or! a!five-

year!interval.!

• The!model!is!fit!to!annual!calf!counts!(which!are!assumed!not!to!miss!any!animals).!

• The!model!estimates:!

o the!starting!adult!female!population!size!for!

!"%&'

,!!

o the! annual! proportion! of! calving! females! that! will! enter! a! three-year! calving!

cycle,!!

o a! (potentially! time-varying)! parameter! that! accounts! for! juvenile! mortality!as!

well!as!the!proportion!of!calves!that!are!female,!and!

o the!initial!(assumed!to!be!steady)!population!growth!rate.!

Results

In!order!to!commence!the!population’s!dynamics,!the!model!is!started!a!fair!number!of!n!years!

before!the! year!

()%*

!for!which!the! first!calf! count!is!available.!Several! assumptions!have!been!

made!for!this!initial!analysis,!such!as:!

(a)!a!constant!growth!population!growth!rate!(R),!!

(b)!a!constant!juvenile!mortality!rate!(

+%*

!and!!

(c)!that!a! constant!proportion!(

,%*

!of! calving!females! will! enter! a! three-year! calving!cycle!

during!these!n!years.!!

30!

This!leads!to!an!inter-dependence!of!three!key!model!parameters!R,(

!and!

.!In!the!interest!of!

simplicity,!and!as!a!first!attempt!for!fitting!the!model,!two!approaches!have!been!taken!for!the!

results!presented!in!this!document.!

1. The!annual!proportion!of!calving!females!that!will!enter!a!three-year! calving!cycle

-(."*

is!assumed!to!be!constant!with!time.!

!is!fixed!at!a!range!of!values,!R!is!estimated!freely,!

and!

!is!determined!by!the!values!of!

!and!R!(see!the!Appendix!for!further!details).!

2. The! juvenile! mortality! (plus! proportion! of! calves! that! are! female)! parameter! (

+"*

!is!

assumed!to!be!constant!with!time.!

!is!fixed!at!a!range!of!values,! R!is!estimated!freely,!

and!

!is!determined!by!the!values!of!

!and!R.!

Results!are!presented!for!five!runs!–!runs!1a!and!b!as!per!approach!(1)!above!for!two!different!

values!of!

,!and!runs!2a-c!as!per!option!approach!(2)!above!for!three!different!values!of!

Table! 1! lists! key! parameter! values! and! negative! log-likelihood! components! for! the! five! runs.!

Figure!1!plots!the!estimated!population!trajectories,!as!well!as!the!trajectories!for!

!and!

Discussion

Some!key!discussion!points!are!provided!in!bullet!point!form!below.!

• Approach!(2)!(a!time-invariant!proportion!of!births!that!are!female!and!juvenile!survival!

rate,!

)! seems! in! general! to! be! able! to! provide! better! fits! to!the! data.! Furthermore,!

approach!(1)!(constant!proportion!

!of!three-year! calving!cycles)!appears! to! require!a!

strong!temporal!trend!in!the!

!parameter!trajectory!in!order!to!fit!the!data,!which!may!

be! beyond! the! range! of! biological! plausibility.! For!these! reasons,! it! would! seem! that!

approach!(2)!is!preferable!to!approach!(1),!having!greater!“flexibility”.'

• A!key!feature!in!the!South!African!right!whale!data!is!the!noticeable!drop!in!calf!counts!

in!very!recent!years.!Approach!(2)!tries!to!address!that!by!substantially!reducing!the!

proportions! in! the! most! recent! years! considered! in! the! model,! i.e.! it! explains! the!

reduction!in!calf!counts!by!assuming!that!a!large!majority!of!adult!females!have!entered!

five-!rather!than! three-year! cycles.! This!supposition!can!be! validated! only!given! future!

data,!as!it!implies!an!expected!imminent!increase!in!number!of!calves!over!the!next!few!

years.'

• The! impact! of! cha nging! the! adult! survival ! rate! assumed! for! these! a nalyses! (

/ 0 1234*

needs!to!be!explored.!This!value!is!somewhat!lower!than!the!value!of!0.99!that!has!been!

estimated!in! the! application!of! a! more!complex!population!model!(using! more!detailed!

data)!for!the!South!African!right!whale!population!(Brandão!et(al!2018).!The!reason!for!

the!choice!for!this!analysis!was!that!the!model!exhibited!slightly!more!stable!behavior!

for!this!somewhat!lower!survival!rate,!given!the!interdependence!of!

,!R!and!S(for!

the!initial!year!configuration!of!the!model!(see!equation!A4!of!the!Appendix).'

• Note!that!the!scale!of!the!abundance!estimates!output!by!the!model!is!determined!by!the!

assumption! that! the! calf! counts! do! not! miss! any! animals! (and! that! there! are! no!

mortalities!resulting! from! non-natural!causes).! If! the! proportion!missed!remains!about!

the!same!over!time,!abundance!estimates!would!simply!need!to! be! scaled!upwards!by!

the!inverse!of!that!proportion;!however,!if!there!was!a!temporal!trend!in!the!proportion!

missed,!the!impact!on!results!could!be!more!complex.'

• Many!more!variations!of!these!five! runs! could!be!explored!(such!as! estimating!both!

and!

!and! fixing! R(–( though! preliminary! attempts!at! this! suggest! that! the! model! has!

difficulties! in! distinguishing! variations! in!

!from! those! in!

!from! the! limited! data! –!

annual!calf! counts! -! available),!but! this! document! is!primarily! intended! to!outline! the!

proposed!model!and!to!provide!some!preliminary!results.!Overall!the!fit!of!the!model!to!

the!data!(particularly!for!approach!(2))!is!not!unreasonable,!and!the!estimates!of!overall!

population!size!appear!to!be!fairly!consistent!across!the!five!variants,!suggesting!that!the!

31!

model!has!some!potential!to!be!used!as!a!common!widely!applicable!model!for!the!right!!

whale! populations.! However,! further! exploration! and! development,! as! well! as! trial!

applications!to!other!right!whale!populations,!should!first!be!pursued.!

• For!applications!to!other!right!whale!populations,!the!following!information!would!need!

to!be!provided:!

o a!few!values!(considered!to!be!plausible)!for!the!non-juvenile!survival!rate!

;!!

o a!value!for!the!age!at!first!parturition!

;!and!

o a! time! series! of! annual! calf! counts! (desirably! complete,! though! the! approach! can!

accommodate!missing!values!for!a!few!of!the!years).!

Reference

Brandão,! A.,! Vermeulen,! E.,! Ross-Gillespie,!A.,! Findlay,!K.! and! Butterworth,!D.S.!2018.!Updated!

application!of!a!photo-identification!based!assessment!model!to! southern!right!whales!

in! South! African! waters,! focussing! on! inferences! to! be! drawn! from! a! series! of!

appreciably!lower!counts!of! calving! females! over! 2015! to!2017.! International! Whaling!

Commission:!SC/67b/SH22:!18pp.!

Table'1:!Summary!of!results!for!the!five!runs!presented!in!this!document.!The!first!two!runs!(1a!

and!b),!fix!the!value!of!

!(the!value!of!

!prior!to!

,!where!

!is!the!first!year!for!which!

data!are!available),!estimate!R!and! allow!

!to!vary!after!

!(the!value!of!

+"-

prior!to!

(

)!is!determined!by!

!and!R,!see!the!Appendix!for!more!details).!The!next!set!of!three!

runs!(2a-c)!fix!the!value!of!

,!estimate!R!and!allow!

!to!vary!after!

.!Analogous!to!the!

first!two!runs,!the!value!of!

!is!determined!by!the!values!of!

!and!R.!In!the!table!below,!

the!symbols!are!defined!as!follows:!

!is! the! value!of!

!prior! to!

!(the! first! year!for! which! there!are! data),! i.e.! the!proportion! of!

calving!females!entering!a!three-year!(rather!than!five!year)!cycle!prior!to!

)%7

!is!the!mean!of!

!after!

!is!the!value!of!

!prior!to!

,! i.e.! the! value! of! the! variable! taking!juvenile!survival!rate!and!

proportion!of!calves!that!are!female!into!account!prior!to!

)%7

!is!the!mean!of!

!after!

and!

!are! the! variance! parameters! for!the! fluctuations! about!the! means! for!

and!

!post!

year!

!(see!the!Appendix!for!more!details),!

R(is!the!constant!growth!rate!assumed!for!the!initial!period!prior!to!

<=>?-

(

5@5A=

*!gives!the!difference!in!total!negative!log-likelihood!points!between!run!1a!and!the!

rest,!

<=>?-

(

BA5A

*!gives! the! difference! in! negative! log-likelihood! points! for! the! data! component!

between!run!1a!and!the!rest,!and!!

<=>?-

(

.C>A=5DCE

*!gives! the! different! in! total! negative! log-likelihood! points! for! the! combined!

penalties!between!run!1a!and!the!rest.!

<=>?-(5@5A=*

<=>?-(BA5A*

<=>?-(.C>A=5DCE*

1.00

0.3

0.28

0.5

1.05

0.0

0.00

0.60

0.3

0.34

0.5

1.05

15.9

17.4

-1.50

0.57

0.58

0.4

0.40

0.5

1.05

-66.1

-67.3

1.21

32!

0.66

0.69

0.3

0.35

0.5

1.04

-73.8

-78.1

4.36

0.71

0.77

0.3

0.30

0.5

1.03

-53.3

-59.6

6.35

33!

Figure! 1:!Some!graphical!output!for!the!five!runs!presented!in!this!document.!The!top!row!shows!the!population!trajectories!(in!numbers)!of!the!

total!female!population!past!the!age!at!first!parturition!(!"

#),!and!for!the!number!of!females!calving!each!year!(!"

$).!The!data!to!which!the!

model!is!fit!(the!counts!of!number!of!calves!per!year)!are!shown!by!the!closed!circles.!The!vertical!dashed!lines!mark!the!year!%&=1979,!

the!first!year!for!which!data!are!available.!The!second!row!shows!the!estimates!of!+"!(combination!of!juvenile!survival!rate!and!proportion!

of!calves!that!are!females)!and!the!bottom!row!the!estimates! of!,"!(the!proportion!of!calving!females!each!year!entering!into!a!three-year!

calving!cycle).!The!estimated!values!of!the!growth!rate!R!and!the!total!negative!log-likelihoods!are!shown!in!the!bottom!left!corners.!

34!

Appendix

Methodology for the proposed right whale common model

The!total!female!population!in!year!y+1!is!given!by:!

!"#$

%&!"%'()(!"*%+#$

,'%+-"*%+#$!

(A1)!

where!

!"%!

is!the!total!female!population!past!the!age!at!first!parturition!in!year!y,!

!",!

is!the!number!of!females!calving!in!year!y,!

is!the!non-juvenile!survival!rate,!

./!

is!the!age!at!first!parturition,!and!!

-"!

is!an!additional!(possibly!time-varying)!parameter!to!take!juvenile!(first!year)!

survival!into!account.!Xy!needs!to!be!less!than!0.50!to!account!(at!least)!for!the!

proportion!of!calves!that!are!female.!

!"*%+#$

,'%+-"*%+#$

!is! thus! the! number! of! female! calves! that! were! born!

01./)2

years!ago!and!have!now!reached!the!age!at!first!parturition.!

To!calculate!the!number!of!calving!females!in!year!y,!and!assumption!needs!to!be!made!

regarding!calving!interval.!For!this!proposed!model,!it!is! assumed!that!each!female!will!

reproduce!either!after!a!three-year!or!a!five-year!interval.!Then:!!

!",&!"*3

,4"*3'3)!"*5

214"*5

'5)!"*%/

,-"*%+'%+

(A2)!

where!

!is! the! proportion! calving! each! year! which! will! take! 3! years! until! they! calve!

again.!Therefore,!in!equation!(A2)!above:!

!"*3

,4"*3'3!

is!the!number!of!females!that!calved!three!years!ago!which!(a)!took!

a! three-year! calving! interval !t o!r eproduce! aga in! and! (b)! survi ved!

the!three!years!since!last!calving,!

!"*5

,6214"*57'5!

is!the!number!of!females!that!calved!five!years!ago!and!which!(a)!

didn’t!take!a!three-year!calving!interval!(which!by!assumption!

implies!they!took!a!five-year!interval)!and!(b)!survived!the!five!

years!since!last!calving,!and!

!"*%/

,-"*%+'%+

is!the!number!of!females!reaching!age!at!first!parturition!in!year!y!

(i.e.!the!assumption!is!made!that!all!females!at!age!of!first!

parturition!will!produce!a!calf).!

35!

Initial'situation'(before'year'

Start!the!model!some!n$years!before!the!actual!first!year!of!interest,!

,!and!assume! the!

following!for!those!n!years.!

1. The!total!number!of!adult!females!in!year!

;0:1<=

!is!an!estimable!parameter.!

2. Each! year! a! constant! proportion!

!of! the! total! population! is! calving,! i.e.!

!",&

>!"%

3. The! proportion! of! females! in! three-year! calving! cycles! is! constant,! i.e.!

4"#$&

4"&?:

4. The!juvenile!mortality!and!female!ratio!variable!

$is!constant,!

5. The! population! is! growing! at! a! steady! rate! R!so! that!

!"#$

%&@!"%

!and!

!"#$

@!",

.!!

With!these!assumptions,!equation!(A2)!becomes:!

!",&!",

@3?:'3)!",

@5;21?:='5)!",

@%+-:'%+!

(A3)!

Therefore!

!can!be!calculated!as:!

-:&A21'3

@3?:1'5

@5;21?:=BCA'%+

@%+B!

(A4)!

Furthermore,!under!the!assumption!that!

!",&>!"%

,!equation!(A1)!can!be!re-written!as:!

@!"%&!"%'()(>!"%'%+-:C;@%+*$=!

(A5)!

From!this,!!

>&@%+*$;@1'=C;'%+-:=!

(A6)!

Model'set-up'post'

The!calculations! above! provide! the! values! for!

!"%

!",

and!

!for!the!n$years! prior!to!

.! From!

!onwards,! equations! (A1)! and! (A2)! are! used! to! calculate! the! population!

dynamics.! The! parameters!

!and!

!are! estimated! as! a! mean! value! with! annual!

residuals! that! are! assumed! to! be! normally! distributed! with! a! mean! of! zero! and! a!

standard!deviation!of!

!and!

!–!more!details!can!be!seen!in!the!table!below.!

Model'parameters'

The!table!below!lists!key!model!parameters!along!with!further!details.!

36!

Parameter'

Fixed/Estimable'

G<!":*H

Total! female! population! size! in! start! year,! n$

years! before! the! first! year! for! which! data! are!

available! ( 0:&2IJI)! for! SA! right! whales.!

Estimated!in!log!space.!

Estimable.! For! the!

results! in! this! paper!

n!is!set!at!20!years.!

?:'

The!constant!value!of!4"!assumed!for!the!initial!

set-up,!n!years!before!1979.!

Fixed!on!input!

Non-juvenile!survival!rate!

Fixed!(at!0.971)!

Age!at!first!parturition!

Fixed!(at!5!years2)!

-"&KLM

2)N*EO

Parameter!to!take!additional!juvenile!mortality!

into!account!as!well!as!the!proportion!of!calves!

that!are!female.!The!estimable!parameter!is!-"

P,!

estimated!in!logit! space!so!that!-"!lies!between!

0!and!0.5,!as!the!female!proportion!is! assumed!

not!to!exceed!0.5!.!

Estimable!

P&QE)R"

The! model! estimates! a! mean! for! -"

P!and!

residuals!R"

E,! where!R"

ES!;KTDE

U=,! with!DEfixed!

on!input.!

Estima ble! mean! an d!

fixed! standard!

deviation!

4"&2

2)N*FO

The! proportion! of! adult! females! calving! each!

year! that! will! take! three!years! until! they!calve!

again.!Similar! to!X,! the! es timable! parameter! is!

P,! estimated! in! logit! space! so! that! 4"!lies!

between!0!and!1.!

Estimable!

P&QF)R"

The! model! estimates! a! mean! for! 4"

P!and!

residuals!R"

F,! where!R"

FS!;KTDFU=,! with!DFfixed!

on!input.!

Estima ble! mean! an d!

fixed! standard!

deviation!

Data'and'likelihood'

The!model!is!fit!to!number!of!calves!seen!each!year!assuming!a!Poisson!distribution:!

1G<V&1!",TWXYG<!",)!",!

(A7)!

where!

!",TWXY!

is!the!number!of!calves!(male!and!female)!observed!in!year!y,!and!

!",!

is!the!number!of!females!calving!in!year!y.!

In!addition,! a! penalty!is!added! to! the!negative!log-likleihood!for!each!of!the!

!and!

parameters!so!that!the!estimated!residuals!correspond!roughly!to!a!normal!distribution!

with!their!mean!“forced”!to!be!zero.!

4N<E&ZE

]

;

^DE

(A8)!

and!similarly!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!This!value!is!somewhat!lower!than!the!0.99!estimated!in!Brandão!et$al.!(2018),!and!was!chosen!

to!provide!greater!stability!for!these!initial!explorations.!

!See!Brandão!et$al.!(2018).!

37!

4N<F&ZF[\R"

"]U)\6R"

F7UC6^DFU7

(A9)!

Lastly,!penalties!are!added!to!the!negative!log-likelihood!to! force!some!continuity!in!

and!

!when! transitioning! from! the! initial! setup! (before!

)! to! the! post-

!model!

dynamics.!

4N<ET,WH% &A-:12

2K\-"

"_#`

"_BUC;^;KLK2=U=!

(A10)!

4N<FT,WH% &

?:12

"_#`

;

^;KLK2

(A11)!

! !

38!

Annex%D:%Survey%information%for%long%term%southern%right%whale%genetic%and%photo%ID%datasets%for%identifying%biases%for%development%of%common%model%to%compare%demographics%(note:%further%information%

available%in%Annex%E%on%other%regions%including%Tristan%da%Cunha,%Uruguay,%Namibia)%

Wintering%ground%

Systematic/%

Opportunistic%

Years%

Methodology%

Timing%

Duration%

Length:%kms2%

Relative%

proportion%of%

Population%

calving%ground%vs%

mating%ground%

Other%bias%

South!Africa!

Systematic!

1969!-!2019!

Helicopter!

Early!October!

1!week-!10!days!

(weather!

dependent)!

Nature’s!Valley!-!

Muizenberg!

~80-100%!

Calving!ground!

Photo!ID!prioritises!

CC!

Argentina!!

Systematic!

1971-2019!

fixed!wing!

5-10!September!

2!days!(1!day!

Golfo!Nuevo,!1!

day!Golfo!San!

José)!

320km!

~100%!

calving!ground!

Photo!ID!prioritises!

CC!

Brazil!!

systematic!

1987-1988;!1992-

1994;!1997-2019!

(except!2014)!!

fixed!wing!(up!to!

1997);!helicopter!

(from!1998!on)!

September!1!-28!

(main!survey);!+!

monthly!surveys!in!

some!years:!July!to!

November)!!

1!day!(usually)!

300km!usually!(some!

years!varied)!

~90%!!

Calving!ground!

(unaccompanied!

adults!also!sighted)!

Photo!ID!all!

individuals!but!mostly!

CC!sighted!

Chile-Peru!

Opportunistic!

1964-2019!

variable!

June-February!

NA!

Unk!

Calving!and!mating!

grounds!

Variable!effort.!

Difficult!sampling!

area.!

Australia!–!SW!!

Systematic!

1975-2019!

fixed!wing!

August!15-Sept!5!

5!days!

1500km!

~100%!SW!sub-

population!

Calving!and!mating!

grounds!

Photo!ID!prioritises!

CC.!Surveys!expanded!

from!Western!

Australia!into!South!

Australia!in!1993!to!

include!whole!SW!

population!

Australia!–!Head!of!

Bight!

Systematic!

1991-2019!

Cliff!based!

August!15-30!!

Min!14,!max!100!

30km2!

~30%!SW!sub-

population!

Calving!and!mating!

grounds!

Survey!effort!variable!

across!years.!

Consistent!period!for!

all!years!Aug!15-30.!

Surveys!extended!

May-Oct!in!some!

years.!

Australia!–!SE!!

Systematic!

2013!&!2014!!!

fixed!wing!

late!August!

8!days!

Ceduna!to!Sydney!

(including!Tas)!

100%!SE!sub-

population!

Calving,!mating,!

migration!corridor!

N/A!

Australia!–!SE!!

Opportunistic!

1995!-!2019!!

fixed!wing,!

helicopter,!drone,!

land!based!

June!-!October!

varied!1!-!2!hours!

Variable:!Western!

Victoria,!parts!of!

NSW,!parts!of!SA,!

parts!of!Tas,!parts!of!

QLD!

~30%!SE!sub-

population!

Calving,!mating,!

migration!corridor!

Variability!temporally!

and!spatially.!

Opportunistic!

New!Zealand!-!

Auckland!Islands!

photo-ID!

Opportunistic!

Systematic!

1995-1998,!2006-2009!!

Auckland!Islands!

surveys!(UOA)!

2010-2013,!2016-2018!

Auckland!Isl!(Otago!

Uni)!

Small!boat!<!6m.!

UAV!>2016!

July/August!

11!-21!days!

200-700km!variable!

~20%!of!area!

(80%!CC!

detection!in!

survey!area)!

Calving!ground.!

Temporal!and!spatial!

variability,!low!

elevation.!

New!Zealand!-!other!

photo-ID!

Opportunistic!

Campbell!Island:!1995,!

1997!(Project!Tohorā),!

2014!(NIWA)!

Small!boat/!variable!

39!

Mainland:!

opportunistic!since!

1976!

New!Zealand!-!

Auckland!Islands!

genetics!!

Opportunistic!

Auckland!Islands!

surveys:!1995-1998;!

2006-2009;!2020-

2021;!!

Small!boat!<!6!m!!

July/August!

12-35!days!

Port!Ross!area;!not!

linear!survey!!

Assume!

Auckland!Islands!

is!part!of!core!

range!for!all!NZ!

right!whales!

Calving!ground.!All!

demographic!classes!

present.!Mating!

behaviour!observed.!!

Evidence!of!

reproductive!

autonomy!from!

parentage!analyses!

Whales!also!present!

around!mainland!and!

Campbell!Island!

New!Zealand!-!other!

genetics!

Opportunistic!

Campbell!Island!

survey:!2014;!

Mainland!NZ:!

opportunistic!data!

collection!2001-2018!

Small!boat/variable!

Opportunistic!

NA!

Opportunistic!so!

variable!

Campbell!Island:!no!

calves!in!2014!

Mainland!NZ:!Calving!

ground.!All!

demographic!classes!

present.!Mating!

behaviour!observed.!!

Whales!also!present!

in!the!Auckland!

Islands!

Falkland!Islands!

(Islas!Malvinas)!

Systematic!

2017,!2019-2020!

(Falklands!

Conservation)!

Small!boat!6.5m.!

Limited!aerial!shots!

with!drone.!

May-August!

Several!days!per!

month!(varied,!

weather!

dependent)!

North-east!Falklands!

coast,!variable!

Unknown!

Unknown.!No!calves.!

Some!mating!

behaviour!observed.!

Small,!localised!study!

area!relative!to!rest!of!

Falklands.!Variable!

effort.!Side-on!head!

shots!from!boat.!

New Zealand southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; Tohorā nō Aotearoa) behavioural phenology, demographic composition, and habitat use in Port Ross, Auckland Islands over three decades: 1998–2021

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022
POLAR BIOL

Changes in habitat availability and prey abundance are predicted to adversely influence survival and reproduction of wildlife in the Southern Ocean. Some populations of southern right whale (SRW; Eubalaena australis) are showing dramatic changes in habitat use. Surveys were undertaken in the austral winters of 2020 and 2021 at the key nursery and socialising ground for New Zealand SRWs: Port Ross, Auckland Islands, with 548 encounters and 599 skin biopsy samples collected. Data from these two surveys spanned peak periods of use and were used to test the hypothesis there have been shifts in the phenology, demographic composition and behaviour of SRWs using the Auckland Islands over the past three decades. The behavioural phenology and demographic composition of SRW resembles that observed in the 1990s. In contrast, the proportion of groups containing cow-calf pairs increased from 20% in the 1998 survey to 50% in 2020/21. These changes are consistent with a growing population undergoing strong recruitment, not limited by food resources. Continued use of Port Ross by all SRW demographic classes confirms this as key habitat for SRW in New Zealand waters, and we support increased enforcement of existing management measures to reduce whale-vessel interactions in this remote subantarctic archipelago.

Ocean warming threatens southern right whale population recovery

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2021

Whales contribute to marine ecosystem functioning, and they may play a role in mitigating climate change and supporting the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) population, a keystone prey species that sustains the entire Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystem. By analyzing a five-decade (1971–2017) data series of individual southern right whales (SRWs; Eubalaena australis) photo-identified at Península Valdés, Argentina, we found a marked increase in whale mortality rates following El Niño events. By modeling how the population responds to changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, we found that such events are likely to impede SRW population recovery and could even cause population decline. Such outcomes have the potential to disrupt food-web interactions in the SO, weakening that ecosystem’s contribution to the mitigation of climate change at a global scale.

Updated application of a photo-identification based assessment model to southern right whales in South African waters, focussing on inferences to be drawn from a series of appreciably lower counts of calving females over 2015 to 2017

Technical Report

Full-text available

May 2018

This paper extends the analyses of Brandão et al. (2013) which applied the three-mature-stages (receptive, calving and resting) model of Cooke et al. (2003) to photo-identification data available from 1979 to 2012 for southern right whales in South African waters, by taking five further years of data into account. The lower counts of calving females over 2015 to 2017 are indicated to be a reflection of time variability in the probability that a resting whale rests another year, rather than of any mass mortality. The 2017 number of parous females is estimated to be 1 765, the total population (including males and calves) 6 116, and the annual population growth rate 6.5%. This reflects a small decrease to the 6.6% increase rate estimated previously; even in the instance of lesser numbers seen in recent years than estimated previously. Information from resightings of grey blazed calves as adults with calves allows estimation of first year survival rate of 0.852, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 0.850, compared to a subsequent annual rate of 0.988.

Satellite derived offshore migratory movements of southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) from Australian and New Zealand wintering grounds

Article

Full-text available

May 2020
PLOS ONE

Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) migrate between Austral-winter calving and socialising grounds to offshore mid- to high latitude Austral-summer feeding grounds. In Australasia, winter calving grounds used by southern right whales extend from Western Australia across southern Australia to the New Zealand sub-Antarctic Islands. During the Austral-summer these whales are thought to migrate away from coastal waters to feed, but the location of these feeding grounds is only inferred from historical whaling data. We present new information on the satellite derived offshore migratory movements of six southern right whales from Australasian wintering grounds. Two whales were tagged at the Auckland Islands, New Zealand, and the remaining four at Australian wintering grounds, one at Pirates Bay, Tasmania, and three at Head of Bight, South Australia. The six whales were tracked for an average of 78.5 days (range: 29 to 150) with average individual distance of 38 km per day (range: 20 to 61 km). The length of individually derived tracks ranged from 645–6,381 km. Three likely foraging grounds were identified: south-west Western Australia, the Subtropical Front, and Antarctic waters, with the Subtropical Front appearing to be a feeding ground for both New Zealand and Australian southern right whales. In contrast, the individual tagged in Tasmania, from a sub-population that is not showing evidence of post-whaling recovery, displayed a distinct movement pattern to much higher latitude waters, potentially reflecting a different foraging strategy. Variable population growth rates between wintering grounds in Australasia could reflect fidelity to different quality feeding grounds. Unlike some species of baleen whale populations that show movement along migratory corridors, the new satellite tracking data presented here indicate variability in the migratory pathways taken by southern right whales from Australia and New Zealand, as well as differences in potential Austral summer foraging grounds.

Genetic diversity and connectivity of southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) found in the Brazil and Chile-Peru wintering grounds and the South Georgia (Islas Georgias del Sur) feeding ground *** This paper is open access: https://academic.oup.com/jhered/article/111/3/263/5826886 ***

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2020

As species recover from exploitation, continued assessments of connectivity and population structure are warranted to provide information for conservation and management. This is particularly true in species with high dispersal capacity, such as migratory whales, where patterns of connectivity could change rapidly. Here we build on a previous long-term, large-scale collaboration on southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) to combine new (nnew) and published (npub) mitochondrial (mtDNA) and microsatellite genetic data from all major wintering grounds and, uniquely, the South Georgia (Islas Georgias del Sur: SG) feeding grounds. Specifically, we include data from Argentina (npub mtDNA/microsatellite=208/46), Brazil (nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=50/50), South Africa (nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=66/77, npub mtDNA/microsatellite=350/47), Chile-Peru (nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=1/1), the Indo-Pacific (npub mtDNA/microsatellite=769/126), and SG (npub mtDNA/microsatellite=8/0, nnew mtDNA/microsatellite=3/11) to investigate the position of previously unstudied habitats in the migratory network: Brazil, SG and Chile-Peru. These new genetic data show connectivity between Brazil and Argentina, exemplified by weak genetic differentiation and the movement of one genetically identified individual between the South American grounds. The single sample from Chile-Peru had a mtDNA haplotype previously only observed in the Indo-Pacific and had a nuclear genotype that appeared admixed between the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic, based on genetic clustering and assignment algorithms. The SG samples were clearly South Atlantic, and were more similar to the South American than the South African wintering grounds. This study highlights how international collaborations are critical to provide context for emerging or recovering regions, like the SG feeding ground, as well as those that remain critically endangered, such as Chile-Peru.

Population comparison of right whale body condition reveals poor state of the North Atlantic right whale

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2020

The North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis (NARW), currently numbering <410 individuals, is on a trajectory to extinction. Although direct mortality from ship strikes and fishing gear entanglements remain the major threats to the population, reproductive failure, resulting from poor body condition and sublethal chronic entanglement stress, is believed to play a crucial role in the population decline. Using photogrammetry from unmanned aerial vehicles, we conducted the largest population assessment of right whale body condition to date, to determine if the condition of NARWs was poorer than 3 seemingly healthy (i.e. growing) populations of southern right whales E. australis (SRWs) in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand. We found that NARW juveniles, adults and lactating females all had lower body condition scores compared to the SRW populations. While some of the difference could be the result of genetic isolation and adaptations to local environmental conditions, the magnitude suggests that NARWs are in poor condition, which could be suppressing their growth, survival, age of sexual maturation and calving rates. NARW calves were found to be in good condition. Their body length, however, was strongly determined by the body condition of their mothers, suggesting that the poor condition of lactating NARW females may cause a reduction in calf growth rates. This could potentially lead to a reduction in calf survival or an increase in female calving intervals. Hence, the poor body condition of individuals within the NARW population is of major concern for its future viability.

Population estimate and rate of increase of southern right whales Eubalaena australis in southeastern Australia

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2020

In Australian waters, southern right whales Eubalaena australis form 2 genetically distinct populations that have shown contrasting patterns of recovery since whaling ceased: a western population in South Australia and Western Australia and an eastern population in southeastern Australia (Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales). Here, we provide an abundance estimate derived from a breeding female superpopulation mark-recapture model for the southeastern southern right whale population. The population comprises 268 individuals (68 breeding females) and has increased at a rate of 4.7% per annum between 1996 and 2017. There has been no significant change in the annual abundance of mother-calf pairs sighted at the only calving ground (Logans Beach in Victoria) over the last 3 decades. The total number of southern right whales (i.e. all adults and calves) using the southeastern Australian coastline has increased by 7% since 1985. Unlike the population estimate (which was restricted to breeding females sighted prior to the post-breeding southward migration), this estimate is likely to include transiting whales from the southwestern population. The theoretical population model predicts 19 breeding females at Logans Beach in 2018 and 28 in 2028; the actual number of breeding females, as of 2018, is 14. This study provides the first complete estimate of population size and rate of increase of southern right whales along the southeastern Australian coastline. This knowledge is critical for assessing population status and recovery of southern right whales in Australia. It provides a basis for monitoring persistence and responses of the population to environmental stressors.

Androstenedione and testosterone but not progesterone are potential biomarkers of pregnancy in Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) approaching parturition

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2020

The blubber steroid hormone profiles of 52 female humpback whales migrating along the east coast of Australia were investigated for seasonal endocrine changes associated with reproduction. Individuals were randomly sampled during two stages of the annual migration: before reaching the breeding grounds (northward migration; June/July), and after departing from the breeding grounds (southward migration; September/October). Assignment of reproductive status of the sampled individuals was based on season, single-hormone ranks and multi-variate analysis of the hormonal profiles. High concentrations of progesterone (>19 ng/g, wet weight), recognised as an indicator of pregnancy in this species, were only detected in one sample. However, the androgens, testosterone and androstenedione were measured in unusually high concentrations (1.6–12 and 7.8–40 ng/g wet weight, respectively) in 36% of the females approaching the breeding grounds. The absence of a strong accompanying progesterone signal in these animals raises the possibility of progesterone withdrawal prior to parturition. As seen with other cetacean species, testosterone and androstenedione could be markers of near-term pregnancy in humpback whales. Confirmation of these androgens as alternate biomarkers of near-term pregnancy would carry implications for improved monitoring of the annual fecundity of humpback whales via non-lethal and minimally invasive methods.

Best practice guidelines for cetacean tagging

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2019

Animal-borne electronic instruments (tags) are valuable tools for collecting information on cetacean physiology, behaviour and ecology, and for enhancing conservation and management policies for cetacean populations. Tags allow researchers to track the movement patterns, habitat use and other aspects of the behaviour of animals that are otherwise difficult to observe. They can even be used to monitor the physiology of a tagged animal within its changing environment. Such tags are ideal for identifying and predicting responses to anthropogenic threats, thus facilitating the development of robust mitigation measures. With the increasing need for data best provided by tagging and the increasing availability of tags, such research is becoming more common. Tagging can, however, pose risks to the health and welfare of cetaceans and to personnel involved in tagging operations. Here we provide 'best practice' recommendations for cetacean tag design, deployment and follow-up assessment of tagged individuals, compiled by biologists and veterinarians with significant experience in cetacean tagging. This paper is intended to serve as a resource to assist tag users, veterinarians, ethics committees and regulatory agency staff in the implementation of high standards of practice, and to promote the training of specialists in this area. Standardised terminology for describing tag design and illustrations of tag types and attachment sites are provided, along with protocols for tag testing and deployment (both remote and through capture-release), including training of operators. The recommendations emphasise the importance of ensuring that tagging is ethically and scientifically justified for a particular project and that tagging only be used to address bona fide research or conservation questions that are best addressed with tagging, as supported by an exploration of alternative methods. Recommendations are provided for minimising effects on individual animals (e.g. through careful selection of the individual, tag design and implant sterilisation) and for improving knowledge of tagging effects on cetaceans through increased post-tagging monitoring.

The recovery of North Atlantic right whales, Eubalaena glacialis , has been constrained by human-caused mortality

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2018

North Atlantic right whales (NARW), Eubalaena glacialis, were nearly exterminated by historical whaling. Their abundance slowly increased up until 2010, to a maximum of fewer than 500 whales, and since then they have been in decline. We assessed the extent to which the relatively slow increase demonstrated by NARW was intrinsic, and how much could be due to anthropogenic impacts. In order to do so, we first compared calf counts of three populations of Southern right whales (SRW), E. australis, with that of NARW, over the period 1992–2016. By this index, the annual rate of increase of NARW was approximately one-third of that of SRW. Next we constructed a population projection model for female NARW, using the highest annual survival estimates available from recent mark–resight analysis, and assuming a four-year calving interval. The model results indicated an intrinsic rate of increase of 4% per year, approximately twice that observed, and that adult female mortality is the main factor influencing this rate. Necropsy records demonstrate that anthropogenic mortality is the primary cause of known mortality of NARW. Anthropogenic mortality and morbidity has limited the recovery of NARW, and baseline conditions prior to their recent decline were already jeopardizing NARW recovery.

Circumpolar frontal systems as potential feeding grounds of Southern Right whales

Article

Jun 2019
PROG OCEANOGR

All subpopulations of Southern Right whales (SRWs) have been subject of intense commercial whaling during the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. Although the abundance and population status of some subpopulations are improving, their recovery could be compromised if inadequate advice are given rooted in poor data on basic aspects of their ecology, such as the location of feeding grounds. In this study, we combine historical whaling data with key environmental features known to be important for Balaenids to predict the offshore distribution of SRWs throughout the Southern Hemisphere using monthly Ensemble Distribution Models. We found that the location of potential feeding grounds of SRWs changes from mid-latitude shelf and oceanic waters in September towards higher latitude waters in December, a situation that holds throughout the summer. In March and April, suitable feeding grounds reach their minimum geographic coverage, being mostly restricted to areas near calving grounds. We also provide evidence that highly suitable areas of SRWs overlap with the Subtropical Frontal Zone and the Polar Front, so these frontal systems stand as important potential feeding grounds for SRWs from late spring to early fall at circumpolar scale. Improved identification of offshore feeding areas of SRWs will require more efforts to directly observe vast areas of the open ocean and to track individuals from calving to feeding grounds.

Amino Acid Isotope Analysis

Chapter

Jan 2019

Roadmap to success for the International Whaling Commission -Southern Ocean Research Partnership (IWC-SORP) Theme 6 -the Right Sentinel for Climate Change: linking southern right whale foraging ecology to demographics, health and climate

Abstract

Recommendations

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