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The Driverless City: How will AVs shape cities in the future?
Abstract and Figures
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are poised to become the next revolution in mobility. Marketers and engineers enthusiastically promise numerous benefits that AVs will deliver in a future without human drivers: huge reductions in accidents, parking spots, congestion, even the elimination of the loathsome commute among many others. But there are as many, if not more potential ways that the AV revolution can also go wrong: worsening traffic and congestion, urban sprawl, and eroding public transit, for example. How will Autonomous Vehicles shape cities in the future? The Driverless City is not one city: it is many. AVs could be a boon or a debacle. They could even be both at the same time. An extensive literature review revealed a broad cone of possibilities: a myriad different impacts that driverless vehicles could have on different aspects of a city. After synthesizing these into ten main areas of impact, key scenarios are expounded with supplemental foresight. This top-down approach is followed by a bottom-up research workshop where non-expert participants from the general public weighed in on the synthesis and scenarios, and expressed their own thoughts and concerns about what The Driverless City could be. Then, a group of experts helped narrow the cone of possibility into much tighter cones of probability using the Delphi research method. These forecasts and projections shine a spotlight on the key considerations that city planners, urban designers, policy makers and other decision-makers should be taking now to promote desirable outcomes for their city, and curtail undesirable ones.
Figures - uploaded by Sergio De Lara
All figure content in this area was uploaded by Sergio De Lara
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