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Lessons From the West African Ebola Outbreak in Relation to New Zealand's Supply Chain Resilience

Authors:
Roger Dennis
Roger Dennis
Wendy McGuinness at McGuinness Institute
Wendy McGuinness
  • McGuinness Institute
Rick Boven at Stakeholder Strategies
Rick Boven
  • Stakeholder Strategies
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... Despite New Zealand's food production surplus, severe physical damage to Northern Hemisphere infrastructure (including ports, airports, energy, digital, and communications infrastructure), the effects of EMP (e.g., an attack on Australia), and possibly catastrophic near-100% crop failures in Europe and North America might lead to hoarding, internal conflict, and an inability to trade. As the most isolated temperate land mass in the world, supply chain issues have plagued New Zealand before (Dennis et al., 2015) and the country's extreme dependence on international shipping lanes concerns its Ministry of Transport (Ministry of Transport, 2022). ...
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes
Article
Full-text available
Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun‐reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot‐collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self‐sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macroindices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case‐study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands’ favorable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socioecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with cobenefits, which may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.
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... Despite New Zealand's food production surplus, severe physical damage to Northern Hemisphere infrastructure (including ports, airports, energy, digital and communications infrastructure), the effects of EMP (eg, an attack on Australia), and possibly catastrophic near-100% crop failures in Europe and North America, might lead to hoarding, internal con ict, and an inability to trade. As the most isolated temperate land mass in the world, supply chain issues have plagued New Zealand before (Dennis, McGuinness, & Boven, 2015) and the country's extreme dependence on international shipping lanes concerns its Ministry of Transport (Ministry of Transport, 2022). ...
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophes
Preprint
Full-text available
  • Aug 2022
Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun-reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well-placed to help reboot collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self-sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macro-indices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case-study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands’ favourable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socio-ecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with co-benefits, that may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.
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Working Paper 2020/12 – An Analysis of the Responses to the ‘Open Letter to District Health Boards (dated 25 March 2020)’
Technical Report
Full-text available
  • Apr 2021
This analysis aims to identify what type of PPE-related shortages exist, in the hope that this will help with preparations for future city/regional lockdowns. Overall, the research aims to explore the current status of PPE practices and stock that exist across DHBs and how it could adversely impact New Zealand during future viral outbreaks.
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