Technical ReportPDF Available

The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by neglected ocean inertia. Another Sun-driven 3-metre sea-level rise is underway.

  • Geoclastica Ltd


GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-5. Appropriately uploaded on May Day, 1st May 2020, these 2 simple slides (plus notes & sources) will convince you in 5 minutes that: (1) the Sun drives climate change (good correlation, for the last 2,000 years and more, between graphs of Sun's output and Earth's temperature, delayed ~100 years by ocean thermal inertia ); (2) the Sun's just-ended Grand Maximum (GM; 1937-2004) will drive an imminent, unstoppable sea-level (SL) rise of about 3 metres (sic), delayed ~30 years by ocean circulation (arrival of 'overwarm' water at Antarctica, triggering a MISI or MICI ice-collapse event), a repeat of the well-documented global 'Romano-British Transgression' SL rise 1,600 years ago (a few decades after the previous GM) and of other GM-driven rises before that, every 500-2,000 years; and (3) the same GM guarantees a few more decades of likewise-delayed (ocean thermal inertia) global warming, perfectly natural and beneficial (fewer deaths by winter cold). IN STARK CONTRAST the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) missed the correlations, dismissed the ocean's influence, and denied any significant solar role in climate- and sea-level change (!), instead making the facile and societally ruinous conclusion that because CO2 increased markedly after 1850 (by man's CO2 emissions) at the same time as global warming occurred (albeit with superimposed, decades-long, up-down 'sawteeth', unlike CO2), then CO2 must be responsible! IPCC has blundered catastrophically. WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 5th year of full-time, self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science' (mainly computer modelling of climate). I began this quest for climate truth in 2015, fully expecting to verify what the IPCC, the media and governments were saying (shouting) about CO2 being a supposed 'pollutant'. How wrong I was. If only the IPCC had bothered to speak to geologists … scroll down to my Technical Notes 2019-10 and 2018-2, here on ResearchGate.
The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by ocean inertia:
another 3-metre sea-level rise unrelated to CO2 is underway
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-5, 1st May 2020, amended 23-5-20
Slide 1 of 4: last 2,000 years (Slide 2 = close-up last 300 years)
CO2 = 370ppm in 2000
Earth surface
Atmospheric CO2
Sun’s ‘Modern Grand
Maximum’ (GM),
1937-2004; 1991 peak..
Decrease, with ‘sawteeth’
Decrease, with ‘sawteeth
No decrease.
No correlation until fluke post-1850
joint rise in temp. & industrial CO2
Sources & Notes: Slides 3, 4
Peak temp. expected
~2050 (Slide 2)
Good correlation; TIME LAG (yrs) = 120 90 80 160 140 80
Largest warming &
highest temp. in
>2,000 years
Biggest solar
buildup & highest
peak in >10,000
years (Note 1)
‘Sawteeth’ tiny, relative to post-1850 rise
Time-lag longer
in Little Ice Age
(Note 8)
The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by ocean inertia
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-5, 1st May 2020, amended 23-5-20
Slide 2 of 4: last 300 years
‘Global warming
hiatus’ (Wiki)
Sun’s Modern
Grand Maximum
(GM) 1937-2004
Earth surface
~2050 peak
(Note 10)
Unstoppable GM-
driven ~3m SL rise
expected to peak
~2100 (Note 9)
2016 temp.
Cosmic rays
indicate Sun’s
peak magnetic
output 1991
rel. to Sun = 100 98 73 60 58
Good correlation; time-lag (years) rel. to SL = 54 49 41 36 32
SUN output
Good correlation; time-lag (years) = 46 49 32 24 26
CO2 No decade-scale ‘sawteeth’ !
(Note 10)
The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by ocean inertia
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-5, 1st May 2020, amended 23-5-20
Slide 3 of 4: Sources
Slide 1
Graph 1. Sunspot number, reconstructed & (red) observed by telescope
Graph 2. Mean surface temp. (land & ocean), proxies & (black) thermometer
Graph 3. Atmospheric CO2
Slide 2
Graph 1. Group Sunspot Number (bold red)
Magnetic flux (grey fill)
Cosmic rays 1965-2020 (thin red)
Graph 2. Sea level. Satellite data (top right) ... & tide gauge ... Articles/Jevrejeva_2008 Sea level acceleration 200yrs ago.pdf
... grey zone = error range.
Graph 3. Global mean land-surface-air temp. & sea-surface temp.
Graph 4. CO2
1) The Sun’s surge, 1700 to Modern ‘Grand Maximum’ (GM, 1937-2004, Slides 1, 2), was the biggest rise & highest peak in >10,000
years ... & my Technical Note 2020-4 .
2) Temp. & sea level (SL) correlate well with each other & with Sun’s output, lagging behind the Sun ~30 & 60 years respectively
(Slides 1, 2). The SL lag is attributable to AMOC ocean circulation, i.e. delay for downwelled North Atlantic surface water (a ‘tape
recording’ of solar-heating variations) to reach Antarctica (AMOC; Wiki), where resultant melting fluctuations made world SL vary.
The temperature lag reflects ‘ocean memory’, i.e. slow response to changes in Sun’s output (ocean’s thermal inertia, due to its huge
thermal capacity & slow mixing, including global circulation ‘full-circuit’).
3) Both time-lags decreased after the Little Ice Age (Slides 1, 2), suggesting acceleration of ocean circulation & therefore mixing.
4) CO2 & temperature do not correlate (Slides 1, 2) except the joint rise since ~1850 (start of industrial CO2 emissions). Unlike the up-
down ‘sawteeth’ of the solar, temp. & SL graphs (Slides 1, 2), CO2 ‘sawteeth’ are much smaller (relative to the post-1850 rise) & do not
correlate with temperature. The same applies to the last 10,000 years ... .
5) Thus CO2 is irrelevant to climate change ... . Instead the Sun governs
Earth temperature via Svensmark’s cosmic ray/cloud process ... .
6) Royal Observatory of Belgium (IPCC links) “corrected” the conventional Group Sunspot Numbers (Slide 1 Graph 1 red curve),
making the Modern Grand Max. seem less exceptional ... Tech. Note 2019-17 .
7) Each of the 5(?) previous solar GMs of the last 8,000 years caused a Fairbridge-type
SL rise of 2-4 metres in <200yrs due to (AMOC-delayed) arrival at Antarctica of GM-overwarmed ocean water, breaching the MISI or
MICI ice-collapse threshold ... see my Technical Notes 2019-12 & 2020-6
8) The penultimate solar GM, spanning 275-345AD (70 years) & peaking 310AD (Slide 1), caused a diversely documented ~3-metre
sea-level rise from ~350 to ~450AD ... see my 2020 conference abstract, i.e. the
rise began ~40yr after the GM peak. The next GM 1,700 years later (Modern GM 1937-2004; 67yrs; peak 1991) was stronger (Slide 1).
9) Thus I predict another Sun-driven rapid sea-level rise of ~3 metres or more, from ~2030 (again ~40yr after the GM 1991 peak,
consistent with ~30-year lag; Slide 2 & Note 2), ending ~2100. In fact it has arguably begun, judging by the upward curvature (i.e.
accelerating rise) of both the tide-gauge & satellite records on NASA’s SL charts ... .
10) I expect cooling (year-to-year) for 2 or 3 more years (after the 2016 peak temperature; Slide 2 Graph 3), due to the sharp solar
decline at the end of the 11-year solar-cycle that peaked in 1958 (Slide 2 Graph 1). Then ‘sawtooth’ global warming will resume, until
an expected peak temperature ~2049, i.e. total lag ~58 years (Slide 2) after the 1991 solar-magnetic peak). After that, sawtooth-style
global cooling will occur, corresponding to the ongoing solar downturn since 1991 (Slide 2 Graph 1 far right).
11) IPCC neglects ocean thermal inertia, dismisses Svensmark & Fairbridge, discounts the Sun & blames modern warming on CO2 !
There is no ‘climate emergency’. Enjoy the slightly warmer temperatures while they last.
There is a sea-level emergency. It will be hideously expensive & socially very disruptive. CO2 is innocent.
The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by ocean inertia
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-5, 1st May 2020, amended 23-5-20
Slide 4 of 4: Notes
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