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Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies

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... Based on data from the National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) in China, the impact of temperature on high-risk cognitive abilities is evaluated by Zivin et al. [28], which shows that increased temperature can reduce students' cognitive performance. In addition, the reduced human capital and increased welfare costs caused by heatwaves are pointed out by Fishman et al. [71], Donadelli et al. [72], Lomborg [73], Frijters and Van Praag [74], and Hu and Li [75]. ...
... Wealthier countries with higher economic levels can better prepare for and respond to heatwaves, potentially reducing welfare losses associated with high temperature. Lomborg [73] argue that mitigating the adverse effects of climate change requires sufficient financial investment. We obtained the data of economic development from the World Bank dataset. ...
... (4) Economic growth rate is measured by the growth rate of total GDP (i.e., GDPG), which indicates the economic growth momentum of a country. Rapid economic growth can provide additional resources for investment in climate resilience and adaptation measures, potentially reducing welfare losses from heatwaves [73]. Our data of economic growth rate come from the World Bank dataset. ...
... This includes other market-based solutions, such as carbon trading, where profit is required above all. This allows the wealthy nations and corporations to continue polluting while the poor communities bear the burden of the impacts of environmental and social cost (Lomborg, 2020). ...
... Displacement caused by either extreme weather events or sea-level rise can make individuals and families homeless or relegated to poor living conditions. In many instances, destroyed housing further exacerbates the social and economic disparities of the affected population due to their lack of access to available and safe shelter in the aftermath of the catastrophe (Lomborg, 2020). ...
... This requires root causes of vulnerability and exclusion, which are deeply entrenched in social, economic, and political factors that should be addressed. Policies and programs should attempt to reduce income, educational, and resource access gaps, while fostering social inclusion and the empowerment of marginal groups (Lomborg, 2020). ...
Chapter
This chapter explores the intersection of climate change and global inequality, highlighting how climate impacts exacerbate existing disparities and challenge social justice. By examining case studies from Bangladesh, Puerto Rico, the Sahel region, and Pacific Island nations, it reveals the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable populations. The analysis underscores the urgent need for integrated climate justice frameworks, community-based adaptation strategies, and sustainable development initiatives. Key global responses, including the Paris Agreement and international migration compacts, are assessed for their effectiveness in addressing these challenges. Future directions emphasize enhancing international cooperation, leveraging technological innovations, and improving monitoring and accountability. The chapter aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how climate change intensifies inequality and offers actionable insights for building a more equitable and resilient future.
... 443-444), "The AR5 assessed with low confidence that most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimated the observed warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 1979-2012, … CMIP6 models show that this warming bias in tropospheric temperatures remains." 37 (IPCC, 2021, p. 1856) 38 (Pielke, 2020) 39 (Lomborg, 2020) 40 (Pielke, 2020) 41 (Klotzbach, Bowen, Pielke, & Bell, 2018), (Crok & May, 2023, pp. 142-157), and (Pielke, 2019) 42 (Crok, Extreme views on disasters, 2023) 43 (Grinsted, Ditlevsen, & Christensen, 2019) 44 (Pielke, 2020) and (Crok & May, 2023) the changes in high river flows on the global scale… [and] there is low confidence in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence ..." 45 ...
... 45 (IPCC, 2021, p. 1569) 46 (IPCC, 2021, p. 1588) 47 (Crok, 2023) 48 (Pielke, 2019) 49(Lomborg, 2020) 50(Lomborg, 2020) ...
... 45 (IPCC, 2021, p. 1569) 46 (IPCC, 2021, p. 1588) 47 (Crok, 2023) 48 (Pielke, 2019) 49(Lomborg, 2020) 50(Lomborg, 2020) ...
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Prior to the mid‐19th century, Earth was in the grip of the Little Ice Age. Since then, temperatures have on average trended upward. At the same time, human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have increased, and the interest of scientists has turned to consider the extent of the relative contributions of anthropogenic CO 2 and natural forces to warming. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II (WGII) claims that human‐caused climate change or global warming is dangerous. According to the report, “Human‐induced climate change … has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. … The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt ( high confidence )” (IPCC, 2022a, p. 9). The AR6 WGI and WGII reports measure climate change as the global warming since 1750 or 1850. The period before these dates is commonly referred to as the “pre‐industrial period.” The Little Ice Age, a phrase rarely used in AR6, extends from about 1300 to 1850. It was a very cold and miserable time for humanity, with a lot of well documented extreme weather in the historical record from all over the Northern Hemisphere. It was also a time of frequent famines and pandemics. Arguably today's climate is better than then, not worse. None‐the‐less, the IPCC claims that extreme weather events are worse now than in the past, however observations do not support this. Some extreme weather events, such as the land area under extreme drought (Lomborg, 2020), is decreasing, not increasing. Globally the incidence of hurricanes shows no significant trend (IPCC, 2013, p. 216; Lomborg, 2020). Observations show no increase in damage or any danger to humanity today due to extreme weather or global warming (Crok & May, 2023, pp. 140–161; Scafetta, 2024). Climate change mitigation, according to AR6, means curtailing the use of fossil fuels, even though fossil fuels are still abundant and inexpensive. Since the current climate is arguably better than the pre‐industrial climate and we have observed no increase in extreme weather or climate mortality, we conclude that we can plan to adapt to any future changes. Until a danger is identified, there is no need to eliminate fossil fuel use.
... Managing human-derived nitrogen inputs is critical, demanding better fertilization and reduced losses. Despite this, feeding the projected additional 1.5-2 billion people by the century's end requires increased nitrogen inputs (Liang et al., 2021;Lomborg, 2020). Nations with 35 % lower pollution experienced only a 1 % potential yield loss (Gu et al., 2023). ...
... Uneven global phosphorus distribution, concentrated in nations like Morocco, leads to surpluses in some regions but deficits in others, exacerbating soil fertility challenges (Pahalvi et al., 2021). Over-fertilization saturates soils in certain areas, while 30 % of farmland globally faces phosphorus deficiency, posing threats to agricultural output and food security (Lomborg, 2020). ...
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Using chemical fertilizers extensively in small farms has helped increase crop yields, supporting food security and economic growth. However, recent studies show that these fertilizers are often used inefficiently and inconsis tently. This leads to environmental harm, unbalanced soil nutrients, and lower-quality food production. These issues threaten food security, which is vital for human survival and may lead to the abandonment of arable land. This situation calls for a significant shift in soil conservation research to better connect scientific findings with practical conservation methods, ensuring that agricultural progress goes hand in hand with environmental sustainability. Effective use of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) fertilizers is vital for both environmental sustainability and food security. Correcting nutritional imbalances, especially the disrupted N/P ratio caused by faulty fertilization practices, is key to ensuring a balanced nutrient supply. These imbalances have a substantial effect on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, altering their functionality, biodiversity and human nutrition Therefore, adopting balanced fertilization techniques is essential to combine environmental sustainability with global food security and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).To optimize nutrient consumption and production efficiency, regulations should be enacted to enforce the 4R principle, which involves applying the right nutrient source at the appropriate rate, time, method and location. This article emphasizes the connections between current agricultural practices, land use, fertilizer application, soil degra dation, and future challenges. It promotes environmentally friendly farming methods that recognize the vital links between soil quality, food security, human health, and environmental sustainability.
... Today, it is increasingly emphasized that climate change causes irreversible losses and damages to the physical and biological environment and human life, with the scale of these damages growing as the global impact intensifies [1]. While it ranks among the most critical environmental challenges of the 21st century, it has also become a factor profoundly affecting economic structures and public health systems [2,3]. Although international agreements and policies aimed at mitigating these impacts are intensifying, understanding the causal relationships between environmental and economic indicators is crucial in developing effective strategies. ...
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This study investigates the causal relationships between carbon emissions, temperature increases, and health expenditures within the framework of environmental and economic indicators. With the accelerating global impacts of climate change and rising carbon emissions, understanding their effects on public health systems has become critical. This research evaluates these interdependencies using panel causality models, dividing 115 countries into two groups—developing and developed—based on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (PPP) and health expenditures as a percentage of GDP. Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality analysis was applied to examine bidirectional relationships among key indicators, including population density, temperature changes, carbon emissions, GNI, and health expenditures. The findings reveal that population density has significant causal effects on both temperature changes and carbon emissions, while carbon emissions also influence health expenditures. Moreover, the causality from population density to temperature changes is stronger in developed countries, whereas the impact of temperature changes on health expenditures is more pronounced in developing countries. These results highlight the need to strengthen climate adaptation capacities in the health systems of developing countries and implement stricter carbon emission reduction policies in developed nations as essential strategies to address these interconnected challenges.
... Outdoor and indoor air pollution are the two leading causes of economic disadvantage from environmental factors respectively (Lomborg, 2020;Stanaway et al., 2018). Transport, especially in urban environments, is a major contributor to outdoor air pollution O'Driscoll et al., 2018;Pastorello & Melios, 2016). ...
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In response to the demand for advanced tools in environmental monitoring and policy formulation, this work leverages modern software and big data technologies to enhance novel road transport emissions research. This is achieved by making data and analysis tools more widely available and customisable so users can tailor outputs to their requirements. Through the novel combination of vehicle emissions remote sensing and cloud computing methodologies, these developments aim to reduce the barriers to understanding real-driving emissions (RDE) across urban environments. The platform demonstrates the practical application of modern cloud-computing resources in overcoming the complex demands of air quality management and policy monitoring. This paper shows the potential of modern technological solutions to improve the accessibility of environmental data for policy-making and the broader pursuit of sustainable urban development. The web-application is publicly and freely available at https://cares-public-app.azurewebsites.net .
... The expertise of civil engineers, combined with careful observation and manual calculations, played a crucial role in developing effective flood risk management strategies and mitigation measures even in the absence of advanced computational tools. A standard workflow of the aforementioned process is depicted in Figure 2 [29][30][31], while the detailed steps are described in Section 3, in the context of the Pikrodafni case study. ...
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As cities have expanded into floodplains, the need for their protection has become crucial, prompting the evolution of flood studies. Here, we describe the operational tools, methods and processes used in flood risk engineering studies in the 1970s, and we evaluate the technological progress up to the present day. To this aim, we reference relevant regulations and legislation and the recorded experiences of engineers who performed hydrological, surveying and hydraulic studies in the 1970s. These are compared with the operational framework of a contemporary flood risk assessment study conducted in the Pikrodafni basin in the Attica region. We conclude that, without the technologically advanced tools available today, achieving the level of detail and accuracy in flood mapping that is now possible would have been unfeasible, even with significant human resources. However, ongoing urban development and growth continue to encroach upon flood plains that have existed for centuries, contributing to increased flood risk.
... The problem with many of existing climate policies under the Paris Agreement, as some have shown, is that it comes with significant transition costs but 'relatively insignificant emissions reductions' (Li et al., 2017). Further estimates show that these costs vary from 1 to 2 trillion annually by 2030, with most of the costs borne by developing countries (Lomborg, 2020). If these figures are true, it means that more modest abatement strategies are preferable, to ensure that policy costs are minimised. ...
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Recently, scholars have advanced an ideal of the entrepreneurial state in which industrial policy is pursued in a mission-directed manner. Crucially, this perspective does not merely call for the heavier use of industrial policy, but envisions the state as a central focal point, mobilising society around the pursuit of a common mission. Using the historical example of East Asia's developmental state, which closely resembles its contemporary variant, I demonstrate that mission-directionality – should it be consistently applied – tends towards the pursuit of a singular overarching mission, and could require the use of authoritarian and disciplinary mechanisms to sustain mission focus in an environment of uncertainty. In turn, this potential risk arises because mission-directionality seeks to transcend the otherwise directionless nature of market-based and democratic decision-making through the use of bureaucratic discretion, to align the behaviour of social actors in a cohesive and directional manner.
... The struggle for sustainable development has identified two strategies, namely harnessing renewable energy and developing green trade policies on how to reversing the adverse impact done to the natural environment and how to enhance economic growth. As the climate situation in the world continues to worsen, countries of the world continue to ramp up their efforts to achieve economic development with sustainability (Lomborg, 2020). For this reason, South Asian economies are a particularly suitable target of research due to the fact of economic growth, continuously rising energy demand, and vulnerability to climate change. ...
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The purpose of this study is to measure the efficiency of green trade policies to encourage appropriate economic behavior. Some of the friendly trade eco policies such as Eco friendly trade agreement, –Carbon Tariffs, Technology transfers seek to spur some level of eco responsibility and reduce the economic infringements on the ecology. This research, therefore, seeks to examine the role of these policies in enhancing carbon neutral growth and their relevance as an instrument for development in South Asia. We conducted comparative research on South Asian countries regarding " the Role of Renewable Energy Integration and Green Trade Policies on Environmental quality and Carbon-Neutral Economic Growth: A Dynamic Comparative Analysis of South Asian Economies "using data from selected emerging nations. Data was gathered from the World Bank website, covering the period from 2001 to 2022, alongside data from Organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank, and Asian bank provide extensive datasets and publications related to Renewable Energy Integration and Green Trade Policies, Environmental quality and Carbon-Neutral Economic Growth. We conducted robustness checks, pairwise correlation tests, linear regression, symmetry analysis, and VIF tests. The present research contributes towards understanding the details of the interactions between RE integration, green trade policies and economic development of SA economies. The results reveal the importance of renewable energy sources in enhancing environmental quality as well as produce vivid revelation of the effect of CO₂ emissions on the environment. Increase in GDP has been predicted by the green trade policies thus indicating that sustainability of trade policies can enhance the growth of the economy hence supporting the economic hypothesis, about sustainability of trade polices but there impact on quality of outputs is unknown. Besides, technological advancement as an impediment of economic development as an element of innovation for a low-carbon economy. On the other hand, negative correlation between labor force participation and GDP reveals Lounge that calls for labor market changes with respect to productivity and efficiency.
... Moreover, the challenges of balancing renewable energy integration with economic stability have been examined in diverse regions, pointing to the need for harmonized policy approaches [3,4]. Lomborg [5,6] and Tol [7], challenges the cost of energy transition, which has become obvious lately by the increased energy cost in Germany resulting from "green" politics [8] which led to a collapse of the industrial production [9]. These insights underline the importance of examining a country's energy evolution within a global framework, to assess how past strategies align with or diverge from international trends. ...
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This paper elucidates the development of electricity production and distribution in Greece from the 1950s to date, in correlation with national and European energy policy. During this period, Greece experienced a multifaceted energy transition, including both the transition of ownership of energy generation companies from public to private and a transition from an energy mix in which coal (lignite) served as a major and inexpensive resource to a mix in which wind power, solar power and natural gas gained a primary role, but with high costs for energy generation. The correlation between electrical energy consumption and economic growth is explored in this context, revealing an increase in consumption before the 2009 recession and a decline thereafter. The study investigates the correlation between escalating electricity prices and legislative dependencies that mandated the purchase of wind- and solar-generated electricity at exorbitant rates, the closure of cost-effective lignite units, and the reliance on natural gas—a commodity susceptible to geopolitical shifts. It also shows that, given the structure of the Greek energy mix, the increase in the share of wind and solar energy in the mix is directly related to the increase in the price of electricity. Highlighting the importance of energy costs for prosperity, this paper underscores, through the detailed review of the Greek energy “landscape”, that the major determinants of electricity prices are both the accessibility to natural resources but also their proper and judicious management.
... It is crucial to ensure that the cost and benefit of climate action have an equitable distribution. Such course of action would lead to a just and sustainable society Lomborg, 2020).There is an pressing need to address carbon emanation inequality issues for ensuring that the affluent sections of the society reduce emissions, and the poorer sections have access to clean technologies. Such practices will create sustainable and unbiased society. ...
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Climate change and disparities among economic groups represent significant challenges confronting the global community today. Inadequate action against climate change is likely to worsen economic inequalities, while these inequalities can hinder the effective execution of climate change initiatives. Against this backdrop this study examines the impact of ENT on carbon emissions inequality (CEI) to develop equitable and inclusive mitigation strategies. Using a unique GMM-PVAR approach, we analyze structural dynamics in a panel dataset of 41 developing and developed countries for 1990–2020. This method is efficient and robust. It is capable of taking into account the structural dynamism in the data. Further this method can tackle the endogeneity in the concerned data sets. The empirical models account for geopolitical risk, economic complexity, total natural resource rents, and GDP growth as potential influencers of CEI. Our findings reveal that: (1) ENT negatively impacts CEI, underscoring its importance in reduction efforts; (2) economic complexity exhibits a negative relationship with CEI, implying it contributes to its reduction; (3) geopolitical risk, natural resources, and GDP growth all positively impact CEI, hindering its reduction; (4) impulse response analysis shows that shocks to ENT induce an initial inverse response in CEI, followed by oscillating inverse responses over ten periods; and (5) causality test corroborates these results and indicate no reverse causality. The robustness test based on impulse response function and heterogeneous causality test confirm the earlier findings. The empirical outcomes reveal a negative effect of ENT on CEI, showing that any upsurge of one unit in ENT leads to a decline in the CEI by 1.09 units in the long run. Remarkably, a unit increase in geopolitical risk will automatically contribute to an escalation of CEI by 5.977 units. The results from Impulse Response Analysis documents how CEI responds to the shocks in the independent variables over ten periods. The analysis demonstrates that any shock in the ENT will stimulate an inverse response to CEI in the first period and then oscillate across inverse response over a period of 10 periods Grounded on these outcomes, the study concludes with potential policy implications to promote equitable and sustainable CEI reduction strategies. The government of the concerned countries should embrace environmental policies to enhance the application of ENT to stimulate the harmonious effects. The government can implement carbon pricing system that will create economic incentive for individuals and companies to reduce emissions and invest in clean technologies. Graphical abstract
... Microplastics disrupt marine life impairing essential physiological processes, reproduction, and feeding behaviors, contributing to a decline in fish population and the degradation of vital ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling. This ecosystem disruption is anticipated to result in economic losses ranging from $200 billion to $1 trillion (Lomborg, 2020;Haubrock et al., 2022). Furthermore, the global fisheries and aquaculture sectors, valued at approximately $250 billion in 2020, face additional threats due to reduced yields and heightened disease vulnerability in species exposed to microplastics, potentially leading to losses of $100 billion to $500 billion (Azwar et al., 2022). ...
Article
The burgeoning issue of microplastic pollution in marine ecosystems has emerged as a significant concern, presently multifaceted difficulty to the sustainability and prosperity of the blue economy. This review examines the intricate link between microplastics (MPs) and the blue economy (BE), exploring how microplastics infiltrate marine environments, their persistence, and their impacts on economic activities reliant on healthy oceans in a global scenario. Diminished seafood quality and quantity, degraded coastal aesthetics affecting tourism revenues, and increased operational costs due to fouling and contamination are among the economic repercussions identified. Additionally, the review discusses the potential long-term consequences on human health and food security, emphasizing the urgency for proactive mitigation measures and policy interventions in the global scenario. The study highlights the interconnectedness of the blue economy and environmental health, prompting a comprehensive strategy to mitigate microplastic pollution. It calls for collaborative efforts among stakeholders, including policymakers, industries, academia, and civil society, to develop innovative strategies for combating microplastic pollution and promoting sustainable blue economic practices. In conclusion, the review stresses the pressing need for concerted action to address microplastic threats to the blue economy, recommending science-based policies, technological innovations, and public awareness campaigns to protect marine ecosystems and ensure the resilience and prosperity of ocean-dependent economic activities.
... The temperature is projected to rise by a minimum of 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st century (Wuebbles, 2018). The prevalence of poverty is increasing as a result of recent global warming and is expected to continue rising for various groups when the global mean temperature rises by 1 °C to 1.5 °C and beyond (Lomborg, 2020). The Bundelkhand region, located in central India spans a total area of 2.94 million hectares. ...
... The literature highlights the need for coherent and well-informed policies to address current urban challenges such as population growth, climate change and social inequalities [5][6][7]. Cities contribute significantly to global economic development, generating over 80% of the world's gross world product [8], with just 600 urban areas producing 60% of this total [9]. Rapid urbanization, climate change and poor management of water and waste infrastructure present urgent challenges for cities' resilience. ...
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Urban development is a current priority in terms of improving the sustainability of cities amid demographic pressure and intensive economic development in the European Union. In this context, we aim to critically analyze the progress achieved by the European Member States in the period of 2010-2022 from the perspective of Sustainable Development Goal 11-Sustainable Cities and Communities-and conceptualize the new development scoreboard from the perspective of SDG11. The methods used consist in applying principal components analysis for a set of 15 sustainability indicators related to the studied objective and designing the new sustainability index from the perspective of the ODD11 and the European ranking. The results of the study will allow for the formulation of public policies useful for European decision makers to improve the progress made relating to this objective, and we believe that their implementation could support the transformation of European cities in a sustainable and equitable way.
... Adverse effects of climate change, including changes in weather patterns, sea level rise, wildlife, agriculture, and human health, are becoming more apparent due to the ongoing utilization of fossil fuels [1,2]. To address this issue, international efforts have been made as part of the Paris Agreement [3] to restrict the increase in global temperatures to either 1.5 • C or 2 • C [4] above the levels observed during the pre-industrial era. ...
Article
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The solvent regeneration in the post-combustion carbon capture process usually relies on steam from the power plant steam cycle. This heat duty is one of the challenges of energy consumption in PCC (Post-combustion Carbon Capture). However, this practice results in a significant energy penalty, leading to a substantial reduction in the capacity of the Power Plant, estimated to be between 19.5 and 40 %. This paper investigate the techno-economic feasibility of a solar-assisted regeneration process for the PCC industrial scale with diglycolamine solvent. The study aims to assess the impact of system configuration modifications, such as LVC (Lean Vapor Compression), SPCC (Solar Post-combustion Carbon Capture), and combinations of trough or compound solar collectors with LVC, on energy efficiency and overall plant performance. With 3E analysis for SPCC configuration results show that this configuration. However, reducing energy consumption and energy penalty factor, exhibits a decrease in exergy and exergoeconomic efficiency compared to the other configurations in terms of exergy and exergoeconomic aspects. However, the LVC + SCSS (Solar Combined Separator-Stripper) configuration demonstrates the best performance across the 3E aspects, resulting in a reduction energy penalty to 12.2 % and improvements of 38 % and 4.2 % in exergy and exergoeconomic factors, respectively.
... It is also crucial to avoid a scenario where well-intentioned policies end up leaving the world much poorer, especially in light of the numerous challenges we face in terms of human development. 8 To quote American economist Thomas Sowell, we live in "a world of trade-offs, not solutions", 9 and whatever trade-off is decided upon will still leave unmet needs or unresolved issues. Saying this does not equate to claiming that we have the ideal trade-offs already and should leave them alone. ...
... al 2021). While I cringe at extrapolating into the distant future from the recent past (and thus violating the Lucas Critique), I view this 7% prediction to be small given ongoing global economic growth and the fact that this prediction does not incorporate the adaptation that will surely take place (Lomborg 2020). ...
Preprint
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The microeconomic approach to climate change adaptation is presented. Lessons from the Friedman's book Free to Choose are applied to this emerging challenge.
... Several studies show that the adverse effects of climate change on future well-being are enormous (Breyer et al. 2017). Therefore, climate change mitigation has become an absolute necessity (Lomborg 2020). According to current literature, adopting renewable energy is the main factor in mitigating climate change by reducing emissions, preserving energy, and encouraging more ecological mode production (Amri et al. 2019). ...
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Several governance regulations have been adopted in European countries to promote environmental sustainability, such as environmental taxation and environmental disclosures in financial reports. In this context, this paper examines the linkage between environmental taxation, International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and environmental sustainability in European countries from 1994 to 2018. Unlike earlier empirical studies, the present work is the first to assess the impact of environmental taxation and IFRS adoption on consumption-based carbon emissions. In order to yield valid and reliable outcomes, the modern econometric method that is vigorous to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity was employed. Likewise, the study uses the novel method of moment quantile regressions (MMQR). The MMQR outcomes illustrated that environmental taxation significantly negatively affects consumption-based emissions in European countries, indicating that environmental taxation has a positive effect on the ecological sustainability. Besides, the findings show that IFRS negatively affects consumption-based emissions, while economic growth positively affects the level of consumption-based emissions. Therefore, European governments must use fiscal and financial policies to mitigate ecological pollution. Moreover, more environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure in European industries could also help promote environmental sustainability in European countries.
... Recent estimates show that investment in green R&D technologies makes carbon emissions reduction cheaper. Therefore, this method seems to be the most effective climate policy, with a return of $11 climate benefits per dollar spent (Lomborg 2020). Notwithstanding, up to the current stage, measures related to green R&D lag behind. ...
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In a polluting Cournot duopoly with homogeneous goods, this work compares the environmental, public finance and welfare impacts of three policies: an emissions tax, an abatement subsidy, and a policy mix. A subsidy, alone or coupled with a tax, always increases abatement; however, taxation disincentivises production, leading to decreased environmental damage, which positively affects welfare. Except for a rather inefficient technology, the emissions tax produces the lowest environmental damage; this positive effect, jointly with the tax revenues the government collects, more than offsets the negative impact on profits and consumer surplus due to output contraction, leading to the highest welfare. Only when societal awareness is negligible and technology is inefficient does the government design a policy providing a subsidy.
... By this policy, the MGP predicted the increase of productivity of cereal crops and a partial reconversion of land towards more creative value-added uses, particularly those of fruit arboriculture. In fact, while cereals occupy almost 65% of the UAA, they contribute only 19% the agricultural GDP [19]. Figure 5 shows the activation of this policy in the Agriculture & Land Policy Simulator effected directly three variables: cropland carbon potential, crop yield, and crop export. While the motivation for encouraging arboriculture may be economic, the simulation shows how each policy affect multiple outputs. ...
Conference Paper
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During last decades, African countries have gone through important changes for the sake of their development. Yet, several big challenges need to be addressed to sustain the development in the continent. Sorting out the best policies in this case is not straightforward. Morocco has implemented many programs aiming at tackling agriculture issues. However, one critical factor emerged as a key limitation to pursue such program: climate change. Water scarcity remains a critical constraint. Thus Morocco has to constantly change its policy in order to cope with these limitations. Stakeholders are in need of adaptation tools, that can help them to assess reasonably the different potential policies. In that work, we present a new system dynamics based framework for the Agriculture and Land Policy Simulations to support policy-makers decisions. Fitted to the case of Morocco, we use this tool to examine how elements of the Moroccan Green Plan can contribute to secure food production under different constraints.
... For example, Lindzen [23] has expressed skepticism regarding the anthropogenic causes of climate change. On the economic front, Lomborg [24] has argued against an exclusive focus on environmental policies, advocating for the efficient allocation of limited resources to maximize overall social benefits. Stavins [25] has delved into the unequal economic burdens associated with climate policies. ...
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This study delves into the intricate relationship among peace attitudes, personality traits, and sustainable behaviors in a diverse sample of 279 adults from different regions of Italy. Building upon the existing literature, this research affirms the influence of agreeableness, openness, and conscientiousness as primary personality traits associated with sustainable behaviors. Additionally, this study scrutinizes the unique predictive power of peace attitudes. The Peace Attitude Scale (PAS), the Big Five Questionnaire (BFQ), and the Sustainable Behaviors Scale (SBS) were utilized to evaluate peace attitudes, personality traits, and sustainable behaviors. The analysis reveals that peace attitudes significantly predict sustainable behaviors, accounting for 31% of the variance. This predictability is attributed to intrinsic motivation and value alignment. Importantly, peace attitudes extend beyond environmental concerns to embrace social justice and equity, integral components of sustainability. The findings underscore the unique and substantial contribution of peace attitudes to understanding sustainable behavior. This study not only confirms the role of personality traits but also emphasizes the importance of intrinsic values in propelling pro-environmental actions.
... They take accurate measures to divest institutions from fossil fuels, block the establishment of toxic industrial facilities in Black and brown neighborhoods, influence local legislators on environmental laws, and so much more. After raising awareness, they take the critical next step: to effect actual change (Bjorn, 2020). The focus on individual branding and personality in influencer culture is opposed to grassroots organizing. ...
Article
The actions and policies enacted by today's youth hold profound implications for future generations, underscoring their pivotal role in advocating for climate issues. Younger cohorts exhibit heightened concern regarding climate change and are highly visible on social media platforms. Hence, this study aims to delineate the portrayal of climate-related news and disasters on TikTok. The research draws upon fifty TikTok accounts focused on climate-related content. Employing social network analysis, PageRank, and Superedge Rank methodologies, this investigation evaluates how TikTok users-called TikTokers-address climate change and its impact on social media. The assessment scrutinizes climate-related news, disasters, and the resultant networks to gauge the influence wielded by social influencers in disseminating messages. Results reveal that among the four key entities -internet influencers, government, scientists, and producers-internet influencers exert the most substantial influence on climate change news dissemination on TikTok, while the government plays an influential role in climate disasters. Like other social media platforms, TikTok is a valuable arena for gauging public sentiment on critical health concerns like global warming. Nonetheless, ensuring the reliability and depth of messages shared on TikTok necessitates the presence of credible experts who can deliver comprehensive and scientifically sound information within the platform's time constraints.
... However, it's worth noting that even in such cases, support for a 4-degree warming scenario may not be justified [17]. There are arguments advocating for the consideration of discount rates separately for market and non-market values, the rate corresponding to the latter is called "social discounting". ...
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This paper explores the application of fisheries management theories to broader environmental issues, including climate change and biodiversity conservation. It underscores the inherent trade-off in fisheries between yield and resource conservation, identifying harvesting as a significant environmental burden. Early recognition of the sustainability concept aimed to address challenges like economic discounts and the tragedy of the commons, contributing to the issue of overfishing. These insights extend beyond fisries to other environmental concerns, particularly climate change. The development of adaptive management, initially tailored to address uncertainties and non-stationarity in fisheries, has found application in diverse environmental issues. Recognizing humans as integral parts of ecosystems highlights the impossibility of achieving zero environmental impact when utilizing natural resources. The paper advocates for passive restoration to prevent overfishing, leveraging nature's resilience. While goals like complete biodiversity restoration are inherent in fisheries, their relevance may not be immediately apparent to other environmentalists. Despite ongoing discussions on the sustainability of ecosystem services, legislation often tends to favor the long-term maximization of fisheries yield. The paper calls for mutual understanding of theories and experiences across various environmental fields, including fisheries, to enhance collaborative efforts in each field.
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Background Climate change, largely triggered by human-induced greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, seems unstoppable. There was a strong rebound of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, the preponderant GHG in terms of contribution to global warming, around the world after the COVID-19 lockdown. Also, there is still no widely accepted international treaty on curbing the anthropogenic emissions of CH 4 and N 2O, the second and third predominant GHG, respectively, so far. Thereby, prima facie, in respect to mitigating climate change, currently, humans have no aces up their sleeves. It seems that current temperature rise is not high enough to take alarm until the occurrence of tipping point. Policy Climate-related international treaties, such as 2016 Paris agreement, are compromises among conflicting geopolitical pressures. However, currently, the climate treaties show little mandatory binding force on the signatories who are able to violate and then get off scot-free, thus may end up like a nostrum. Throughout the European history, I find that the only way, if at all, to achieve the peace or obedience of a treaty is via balancing powers, embodied in Bismarck’s Realpolitik of Germany and Richelieu’s Raison d'état of France. Similarly, the Chinese history in East Asia proved the significance of unadulterated ideological neutrality and Darwinian adaptability in the kaleidoscope of evolving circumstances in maintaining order and enforcement of international treaties through balancing the power of rivalries to constrain ever-recurring challengers for equilibrium. Recommendations A successful policy needs to make a thorough analysis of all relevant factors to form a long-term strategic notion. Then, statesmen need to distill an array of nebulous, always contradictory options into a tenacious, controllable direction. Thereby, I suggest that, for better curbing global warming, climate agreements or climate club be incorporated into an overall geopolitical framework among the international communities.
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Migration tends to lead to both integration and segregation in several national and regional contexts, two phenomena which seem contradictory at first glance. In Sweden, there is a negative statistical relationship between the percentage of migrants and school results. Individual-level data partly confirms this pattern. This seems to be, in part, related to the composition of migrants in both countries as Sweden and the United States have had high influxes of migrants from developing countries such as Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq, Somalia, and Syria in the case of Sweden and Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras regarding the United States. However, much of the same data also shows that a partial integration has taken place. To some extent, this might be because of partially successful integration of migrants in the United States, but also due to the fact that the demographic composition of migrants has changed as more talented Africans and Asians have entered the country in recent decades. It is likely that only high-skilled migration flows to Sweden and the United States can end the parallelization of integration and segregation in both contexts.
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Plain Language Summary Observed temperature has been steadily increasing over the last century and much of this warming can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, the maximum intensity (or potential intensity) a hurricane can achieve depends strongly upon sea surface temperature, with warmer temperatures producing stronger storms. From this perspective, we might expect that the warming surface temperatures are driving observable changes in hurricane intensity. To this end, we analyze climate model experiments to determine if the observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity can be attributed to human‐related emissions over the period 1958–2005. Of the 11 models analyzed, we find that only seven predict that hurricane potential intensity has changed in response to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The change in potential intensity differs across models, with one model predicting a decreasing trend in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, while two models predict an increasing trend in potential intensity. Different reanalysis data sets are likewise inconsistent. These results indicate that currently we cannot attribute changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity to human‐related forcings. It is possible that as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, an unequivocal forced response in North Atlantic potential intensity may emerge in the future.
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The estimates used to value mortality risk reductions are a major determinant of the benefits of many public health and environmental policies. These estimates (typically expressed as the value per statistical life, VSL) describe the willingness of those affected by a policy to exchange their own income for the risk reductions they experience. While these values are relatively well studied in high-income countries, less is known about the values held by lower-income populations. We identify 26 studies conducted in the 172 countries considered low- or middle-income in any of the past 20 years; several have significant limitations. Thus there are few or no direct estimates of VSL for most such countries. Instead, analysts typically extrapolate values from wealthier countries, adjusting only for income differences. This extrapolation requires selecting a base value and an income elasticity that summarizes the rate at which VSL changes with income. Because any such approach depends on assumptions of uncertain validity, we recommend that analysts conduct a standardized sensitivity analysis to assess the extent to which their conclusions change depending on these estimates. In the longer term, more research on the value of mortality risk reductions in low- and middle-income countries is essential.
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The following four key messages derive from the Lancet Countdown’s 2018 report: 1 Present day changes in heat waves, labour capacity, vector-borne disease, and food security provide early warning of the compounded and overwhelming impact on public health that are expected if temperatures continue to rise. Trends in climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities show an unacceptably high level of risk for the current and future health of populations across the world. 2 A lack of progress in reducing emissions and building adaptive capacity threatens both human lives and the viability of the national health systems they depend on, with the potential to disrupt core public health infrastructure and overwhelm health services. 3 Despite these delays, a number of sectors have seen the beginning of a low-carbon transition, and it is clear that the nature and scale of the response to climate change will be the determining factor in shaping the health of nations for centuries to come. 4 Ensuring a widespread understanding of climate change as a central public health issue will be crucial in delivering an accelerated response, with the health profession beginning to rise to this challenge.
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Direct economic losses result when a hurricane encounters an exposed, vulnerable society. A normalization estimates direct economic losses from a historical extreme event if that same event was to occur under contemporary societal conditions. Under the global indicator framework of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the reduction of direct economic losses as a proportion of total economic activity is identified as a key indicator of progress in the mitigation of disaster impacts. Understanding loss trends in the context of development can therefore aid in assessing sustainable development. This analysis provides a major update to the leading dataset on normalized US hurricane losses in the continental United States from 1900 to 2017. Over this period, 197 hurricanes resulted in 206 landfalls with about US2trillioninnormalized(2018)damage,orjustunderUS2 trillion in normalized (2018) damage, or just under US17 billion annually. Consistent with observed trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the continental United States since 1900, the updated normalized loss estimates also show no trend. A more detailed comparison of trends in hurricanes and normalized losses over various periods in the twentieth century to 2017 demonstrates a very high degree of consistency. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.
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In the past two decades there have been fears that many low-lying atoll islands around the world could disappear as a consequence of climate change and sea level rise, leading to mass migration and threatening the existence of several island nations. Here we show how sea level rise does not inevitably lead to coastal areas becoming uninhabitable, and that humans have an innate and often underestimated capacity to adapt to changes in their environment. To do so we showcase three instances of human- and earthquake-induced land subsidence that have taken place in the 21st century, where the coastal/island areas are still inhabited despite the challenge of living with higher water levels: the Tohoku coastline following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami (subsidence ∼0.4–1.0 m), the present day situation of coastal areas in Jakarta due to ground water extraction (>5.0 m), and the islands of Tubigon, Bohol in central Philippines after the 2013 Bohol Earthquake (∼1.0 m). Humans are able to adapt and arrive at solutions even when confronted with cases of rapid rises in water levels, and thus it is likely that in the future vulnerable coastlines will be engineered and largely remain at present day locations, particularly in densely populated areas. If anything, around densely populated areas it is more likely that humans will continue to encroach on the sea rather than the reverse. We caution, however, that small islands are not homogeneous, and many are unlikely to respond to rising sea levels in the manner that atolls do (in fact, many might just resort to build at higher elevations). Where engineering and other adaptation responses become necessary, the financial and human resource requirements may well be beyond capacity of some small islands, which could lead to impoverishment and associated challenges in many communities.
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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report is a comprehensive assessment of our understanding of global warming of 1.5°C, future climate change, potential impacts and associated risks, emission pathways, and system transitions consistent with 1.5°C global warming, and strengthening the global response to climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
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Between 1981 and 2013, the share of the global population living in extreme poverty fell by 34 percentage points. This paper argues that such rapid reductions will become increasingly hard to achieve for two reasons. First, the majority of the poor now live in middle-income countries where the benefits of growth have often been distributed selectively and unequally. Second, a reservoir of extreme poverty remains in low-income countries where growth is erratic and aid often fails to reach the poor. If the international community is to most effectively leverage available resources to end extreme poverty, it must ensure that its investments in institutions and physical infrastructure actually provide the poor the capabilities they need to craft an effective pathway out of poverty. We term the human and social systems that are required to form this pathway “invisible infrastructure” and argue that an effective domestic state is central to building this. By corollary, ending extreme poverty will require both expanding state capacity and giving the poor power to demand reforms they need by solving agency problems between citizens, politicians, and bureaucrats.
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The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating our understanding of climate change. This study explores uncertainty in baseline trajectories using multiple integrated assessment models commonly used in climate policy development. The study examines model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the probability distributions of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting distributions provide a useful input into climate policy discussions. © 2018 by The Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
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Significance This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5), illustrating particular importance for understanding extreme outcomes.
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