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Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies

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... Majority would only take the discussion independently (Ulucak, Danish and Khan, 2020;Gozgor, Mahalik, Demir, et. al., 2020;Paterson and P-Laberge, 2017;Cui, 2020;Lomborg, 2020). In most cases, their discussions on all these areas may only explicitly emphasize on some elements, while the rest may not be addressed in sufficient detail. ...
... al., 2021). According to Lomborg (2020), governments have been trying to address this issue through The Paris Agreement which the expected outcomes actually do not worth the cost. The agreement is to keep the global temperature from rising under 2 degrees celsius. ...
... From 197 countries that agreed, only 17 of them have passed laws accordingly. It will cost greater than US$50 trillion to lower the temperature under 3 degrees Celsius (Lomborg, 2020). The issue comes from the developing countries that need to concurrently consider the economic stability, from how they impose the tariff and laws on foreign companies that may not be in favour with addressing the climate change (Leal et. ...
... While there are differences in optimal temperature targets and the amount of emissions mitigation, economic growth is uncertain but expected by Nordhaus [78][79], Stern [82], Weitzman [87], Lomborg [86] and others [81]. ...
... The main cause of the differences in the taxes on carbon and the optimal mitigation path is not the expected economic growth, as most expect the economy to become between 4 to 10 times bigger, but the intertemporal discount applied on expected damages. Applying very different discount rates on time horizons from 80 to 200 years can change the optimal policy from dramatic and urgent [82][87] to a inconvenient topic at the end of the century [78] [86]. ...
... The literature body that expects constant global growth till 2100 suggests carbon taxing, adaptation, investment in low carbon energy research and deployment [86], geoengineering [87], together with further growth as the best tools to mitigate climate change together with other development issues such as poverty, health or unemployment [86] . ...
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In this paper we demonstrate that economic growth is not a necessary nor sufficient condition to ensure long term prosperity, due to its decreasing effectiveness on wellbeing enhancement, the subsequent life threatening risks of crossing planetary boundaries, its dependency on limited dense sources of cheap energy and the weak link with poverty, unemployment and inequality alleviation. Long term GDP growth is incompatible with sustainable development, despite the mainstream faith on green growth.
... These studies generally argue that regions with a high incidence of inequality are conflict-prone. Studies also attribute increasing conflict to climate change (Gleditsch and Nordas, 2014;Berchin et al., 2017;Lomborg, 2020). The general presumption, therefore, is that climate change could promote inequality directly or through increasing conflict. ...
... Wang et al. (2020) identified seasonal migration due to unequal environmental conditions and the pursuit of a meaningful life as the inequality channel in china. The UN Climate Panel (IPCC) projected an increase to 450% of today's welfare over the twenty-first century, but climate change will reduce the welfare increase to 434% in the twenty-first century (Lomborg, 2020). Increasing climate change is expected to reduce development and welfare, and increase inequality. ...
... The climate change-inequality channels identified are flood, hurricanes, wildfires and droughts. Other channels are premature death, increasing number of physically challenged persons, contraction in economic growth and increased poverty (Lomborg, 2020). Ujunwa et al. (2018) identified food insecurity, hunger and hopelessness channels. ...
Article
This study investigates the potential impact of climate change and armed conflict on inequality in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). The system‐GMM for a panel of 35 SSA countries is employed using annual data from 1997 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that armed conflict and climate are major drivers of inequality in SSA. The direct impact of the two determinants is more than the indirect impact. Also, the impact of armed conflict is more than the climate change. The coefficients of population growth, output growth, unemployment, natural rent, exchange rate and inflation rate are significant positive predictors of inequality in the SSA. The study advocates for a multidisciplinary inclusive growth strategy that prioritises the climate change reversal, de‐escalation of armed conflict, population control, reduction of the unemployment rate and increasing informal sector productivity, to promote inclusive growth and reduce inequality. However, sequencing the policy targets relative to the magnitude of their impact on inequality is extremely crucial.
... They raise important issues that show the inadequacy of free markets as an instrument for managing general societal welfare. Based on the contributions of (Pigou, 1929) and many others (Esping-Andersen, 2001, Hicks, 1939, Lomborg, 2020, welfare economists analyse the social costs and social benefits of decisions taken by different economic agents, argue for redistribution of wealth, optimal taxation regimes, and show the relationship/cooperation between different economic role players with the government. Pigouvian taxes and subsidies are seen as interventions meant to correct externalities arising from actions of economic agents. ...
... Pigouvian taxes and subsidies are seen as interventions meant to correct externalities arising from actions of economic agents. Furthermore, other social welfare issues that have been tackled in literature include unemployment benefits, housing, transfer payments and medical insurance (Lomborg, 2020, Edenhofer et al., 2021. The Covid 19 pandemic raised questions on welfare around the world and in South Africa specifically (Cantillon et al., 2021, Mok et al., 2021, Ranchhod and Daniels, 2021. ...
... e high power factor is the main indicator to measure the performance of an aviation rectifier [2]. It is necessary to obtain grid voltage phase information, which is usually done by a phase-locked link, to achieve high power factor operation of the rectifier [3,4]. It is also important to optimize the Luenberger observer by vector control, as it is the central bearing system of the phase-locked loop. ...
... e Luenberger Observer phase-locked loop and the Linear Kalman Filter phase-locked loop are simulated in the Matlab/Simulink environment for performance comparison. e three-phase voltage is expressed as (3). According to (21), the relationship between w n and f b when R � 1 and ϕ � π/3, the relationship between R and f b when w n � 1 and ϕ � π/3, and the relationship between ϕ and f b when R � 1 and w n � 1 are also calculable. Figure 8 shows the specific relationship between the above elements. ...
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This work aims to strengthen the comprehensive performance of the Luenberger observer in the application of aviation three-phase converter and in physical exercise wearable devices to effectively detect human physiological signals. Firstly, the use status and characteristics of three-phase converters are discussed. Then, the Luenberger observer and its optimization process are described. Finally, the Luenberger observer is optimized through phase-locked loop technology and the vector control method. The experimental results indicate that the PLL of the steady-state linear Kalman filter is applicable to the multielectric aircraft converter for the aviation variable frequency power supply. The phase-locked loop of the steady-state linear Kalman filter is complicated, and the output angular frequency is inconsistent with the angular frequency of the actual voltage of the aircraft variable-frequency power supply. Consequently, it does not have the function of frequency locking. On the contrary, the Luenberger observer phase-locked loop designed here is suitable for the multielectric aircraft converter for the aircraft variable-frequency power supply. In addition, it is simpler than the steady-state linear Kalman filter phase-locked loop and realizes the frequency-locking function. In addition, the vector control method significantly improves the control performance of the Luenberger observer. The control error of the original observer is about 0.24°, and the control error of the optimized observer is about 0.18°. This work provides technical support for the performance optimization of the Luenberger observer and contributes to the performance improvement of the aviation three-phase converter.
... Radical changes result in behavioral shifts [119,120], and our analysis is especially relevant for understanding the impact of radical changes and demands on human behaviors. A representative example of a radical change in the priorities of societies is climate change and the need to protect the planet in the direction of a sustainable production structure linked to sustainable behaviors [119,120]. ...
... Radical changes result in behavioral shifts [119,120], and our analysis is especially relevant for understanding the impact of radical changes and demands on human behaviors. A representative example of a radical change in the priorities of societies is climate change and the need to protect the planet in the direction of a sustainable production structure linked to sustainable behaviors [119,120]. This influence concerns behavioral portfolios for the promotion of sustainability at an individual and organizational level of the firm [121][122][123]. ...
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Incorporating the unavoidable changes manifesting in the behavior of individuals as an outcome of evolution at the level of development of the economy and society, we pinpoint a new theoretical background requiring the reconfiguring of the micro-foundations of economic theory regarding the creative economy. We thus set the theoretical micro-foundations of the creative economy where the main microeconomic incentive lies in life satisfaction attainment rather than utility maximization. At the macroeconomic level, we propose the pairing of sustainability with the creative economy. The objective is met through the vehicle of social identity derived from the responses to a questionnaire distributed in Greek society. Through principal components analysis, we locate two sets of variables shaping life satisfaction: the exogenous influences within social identity (state of health, age, and level of education) and the endogenous primary influences within social identity (lending, cultural change, and happiness). Each one of these variables is determined by other interpretative variables. Furthermore, we observe a weakness of economic policy to influence life satisfaction in advanced Western societies, resulting in a paradox of the economic toolkit. Our findings are relevant for policymaking to promote life satisfaction, especially within the creative economy context.
... It is known that the negative impacts of climate change are felt by various communities [1]. Climate change can affect human health, including factors of infectious diseases, malaria, and mental health diseases [2][3][4][5]. ...
... A total of 197 countries have signed the Paris Agreement which presents an agenda and discusses the main issues for implementing efforts to tackle climate change by involving various local, regional, national and international stakeholders [14]. The climate change has made various countries in the world have a commitment to limit the rise in global temperatures because of the real impact of climate change which causes various disasters and can even lead to the extinction of humans [1]. ...
... Challenges of global climate change and increasing pollution can also be solved. However, there is an efficient level of control, where the marginal damage from the use of natural resources equals the marginal costs of the reduction (e.g., [17,[21][22][23]). Therefore, abandoning lifestyle habits can only ever make economic sense to a certain extent. ...
... Indeed, many other strategies for the energy turnaround would have been possible even without the reduction in the operating life of German nuclear power plants triggered by the Fukushima accident. For example, the promotion of renewable energies could have been used to substitute coalfired power plants more quickly and thus reduce CO 2 emissions, which would have been obvious at least regarding the measures against climate change [21,23]. ...
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The devastating nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, which was triggered by a tsunami in the wake of an earthquake, resulted in the decision to quickly phase out nuclear power and with it implicitly accelerated the German Energiewende (energy transition). To the outside observer, the decision appeared to be spontaneous and possibly due to a distorted perception of the associated risks of nuclear power. From the decision results not only the limiting uses of private property by conventional energy providers, but the exit from nuclear energy has also implications for the energy market. As with every human, political actors decide under uncertainty and incomplete information. Based on these parameters, we emphasize that the decision of a political actor is comparable to management decision-making. The paper takes this as an opportunity to examine the political decision to phase-out nuclear energy by discussing relevant parameters from the perspective of decision theory. We plead for a mandatory consideration of economic findings, especially from decision theory and risk management in political decision-making processes, especially in matters that affect future generations.
... Nowadays the climate change problems are in the center of attention of both politicians and the world business community (Yeganeh et al., 2020) An active discussion about the need for urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the essence of these measures goes beyond climatology and ecology, since the main emitters of greenhouse gases are such powerful sectors of the world economy as energy, construction and transport (Hasan et al., 2020;Alves et al., 2020: Lomborg, 2020. The transition to low-carbon technologies in these sectors of the economy is associated not only with huge investments, but also with changes in the existing infrastructure, consumer behavior of millions of people , and most importantly, with the degradation of some traditional markets and the formation of completely new markets with other major players (Lomborg, 2020;. ...
... Nowadays the climate change problems are in the center of attention of both politicians and the world business community (Yeganeh et al., 2020) An active discussion about the need for urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the essence of these measures goes beyond climatology and ecology, since the main emitters of greenhouse gases are such powerful sectors of the world economy as energy, construction and transport (Hasan et al., 2020;Alves et al., 2020: Lomborg, 2020. The transition to low-carbon technologies in these sectors of the economy is associated not only with huge investments, but also with changes in the existing infrastructure, consumer behavior of millions of people , and most importantly, with the degradation of some traditional markets and the formation of completely new markets with other major players (Lomborg, 2020;. Therefore, the introduction of lowcarbon technologies is still a field of competitive war between the largest energy corporations and, as a result, between the countries to which these corporations belong de jure. ...
Article
The aim of this study is tracking the goals of national climate policies and real trends in the carbon intensity of the economies of the G20 countries. A comparative content analysis of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) of the G20 countries was performed. The trends of mean were built for the carbon intensity indicator of G20 countries in the period 1991-2014. The countries, which already passed the peak of the carbon intensity of the economy, were identified. The constructed models of time series of carbon intensity can be used to forecast the future dynamics of the carbon intensity of the G20 countries and to estimate the changes in the world’s hydrocarbons demand. The issues of global energy security from the perspective of energy resources exporters were discussed. Keywords: climate strategies, G20, carbon intensity, global energy security, energy transitionJEL Classifications: O33, Q42, Q47, Q48DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10432
... One, it would leave the world much more exposed and vulnerable to shocks, including existential risks (Aschenbrenner, 2020;Bostrom, 2003a). Two, it will make the adjustment to a zerocarbon emitting economy more costly (Lomborg, 2020). Three, it would raise the risk of conflict by turning the economy into a zero-sum game 34 (Alexander, 2022;Naudé, 2022). ...
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The Future Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Mythical Agents, a Singleton and the Dark Forest
... Climate change and its effects on social well-being have become the priority for many nations trying to focus their efforts on keeping the rise in global temperatures to a maximum of 1.5 C (Lomborg 2020;Robinson and Shine 2018). To this end, a series of indicators and composite indices have been adopted to support nations in defining their climate policies Schmidt-Traub et al. 2017) At the same time, these indicators have helped scientists to better understand the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate tech and social inequality, the latter of which can be seen as a cause of consumption variation and a barrier to the adoption of climate tech Capasso et al. 2019). ...
Article
The objective of this study was to propose an index based on the IPAT model to quantify the performance of countries concerning their emissions, also taking into account the level of climate technology and the level of inequality. In this study, two quantitative techniques were applied to a sample of 100 countries and 21 indicators. The main results were: (a) a 1% increase in social inequality contributes to an increase in emissions levels by 0.105; (b) the 1% increase in climate techs contributes to reducing emissions levels by 0.141; (c) The proposed IPA index shows that only Estonia and Slovenia are the best performers, mainly in overcoming the inequality barrier, while South Africa and Nigeria are the worst performers in reducing their emissions. The results provide evidence that climate policies should contain social targets to improve country performance and should use a representative value to identify their effectiveness.
... Inequality between countries grew dramatically as the industrialized world developed and receded, whereas, both global and inter-country inequality peaked in the second half of the twentieth century (Lomborg 2020). In another study, Yamamura 2015 investigated how natural disasters affect income inequality from 1965 to 2004 using cross-country panel data. ...
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Despite making significant progress in reducing poverty over the last several decades, the world has witnessed persistent surge in global inequality. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between natural resource, environmental vulnerability, monetary-fiscal stability, and inequality in a global perspective during 2005 to 2019 for 61 countries. We distinguish between consumption and income inequality to see whether the variables under study have different implications for different measurement of inequality. The study employs Driscoll-Kraay standard error method which can account for the cross-sectional dependence between the countries. The study divides 61 countries according to the World Bank income classifications to provide evidence of heterogeneity in the sample economies. The main finding highlights that natural resources induce both consumption and income inequality whereas greenhouse gas emissions have been found to reduce the inequality of both types. Quality of government and access to electricity decrease consumption and income inequality while technological innovation and monetary-fiscal stability have incremental impacts on inequality. The coefficient of natural disaster has been shown to be positive for consumption inequality but negative and insignificant for income inequality. When analyzing moderating impacts, we find that quality of government cannot moderate the positive impact of natural resources on consumption inequality, but it can exacerbate the resources’ impact on income inequality. The result for sub-sample group also differs for consumption and income inequality. The study recommends management of natural resources in a sustainable way with the help of good governance.
... Moral circle exclusion and sentience denial can have significant consequences, including harm and the oppression of humans and nonhuman animals (henceforth, "animals"; Caviola, Everett, & Faber, 2019;Dhont, Hodson, & Leite, 2016;Loughnan et al., 2010;Opotow, 1990Opotow, , 1993Pratto et al., 2006;Starmans et al., 2017). Much of this research has focused on explaining and reducing the inequities within human societies (e.g., Dovidio, Love, Schellhaas, & Hewstone, 2017;Haslam & Loughnan, 2014;Leslie et al., 2020;Lomborg, 2020;Paluck et al., 2021). Some has elucidated the speciesist tendencies that place humans firmly at the top of a moral hierarchy of natural entities such as plants and animals (Amiot & Bastian, 2015;Caviola & Capraro, 2020;Caviola et al., 2019;Dhont et al., 2016). ...
Article
Understanding the moral consideration of AIs as moral patients is increasingly critical given their rapid integration into daily life and the projected proliferation of advanced AIs. We present the results from a preregistered online survey with 300 U.S. Americans on the psychological predictors of the moral consideration of AIs to develop psychological theory surrounding this phenomenon. We tested an array of psychological predictors inspired by the literature on human-human and human-animal relations: perspective (future orientation, con-strual level), relational (social dominance orientation, sci-fi fan identity), expansive (human-centric norms, anthropomorphism, global citizenship, openness to experience, techno-animism), technological (affinity for technology, substratism, human-AI overlap, realistic threat, identity threat), and affective (emotions felt towards AIs). The strongest predictors were substratism, sci-fi fan identity, techno-animism, and positive emotions. We also identified three conceptual dimensions of moral consideration with an exploratory factor analysis of eight moral consideration indices drawn from prior literature: mind perception, psychological expansion, and practical consideration. Additionally, the temporal existence of AIs impacted moral consideration: AIs existing in the future were attributed more emotional capacity and more value as feeling entities than were current AIs. These results illustrate nuances in the moral consideration of AIs and lay the foundation for future research.
... Our aim was to explore whether environmental disclosure, reported in adherence to the GRI standards, significantly increased after the Directive adoption. We focused on environmental reporting due to the pressing and challenging nature of environmental concerns that are increasingly attracting stakeholders' attention (Lomborg, 2020;Krasodomska and Zarzycka, 2020). Given the interconnection of environmental and economic themes, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and energy efficiency illuminate the major concern of policymakers. ...
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Purpose To determine whether to entrust the European Union (EU) to create a new nonfinancial reporting framework or endorse the extant reporting framework developed by the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), this study aims to explore whether the mandatory implementation of the EU Directive positively impacted the GRI-based environmental disclosure. Design/methodology/approach The authors compared the pre- and post-EU Directive environmental disclosure of 16 Italian environmentally sensitive companies. The authors used an extended coding scheme and developed a unique scoring system to compare the quantitative and qualitative changes in environmental disclosure. Findings The analysis showed that the quantity of environmental disclosure increased after the mandatory EU Directive adoption. The most significant change was observed regarding the disclosure topics explicitly required by the Italian legislature. Additionally, disclosure of soft information continued to prevail over that of hard information in the post-Directive period. While the Directive boosted the level of adherence to GRI standards, Italian companies disclosed information that could be easily mimicked (soft) instead of objective measures that could be verified (hard). In light of this evidence, the endorsement of extant GRI standards could be a valuable option for enhancing the comparability and transparency of environmental disclosure. Originality/value This study used an original extended coding system and proposed related environmental disclosure indexes that allow monitoring changes in environmental disclosure over time. To the authors’ best knowledge, this study is one of the few that justifies the significant impact of regulation (here the EU Directive) on the increase in environmental disclosure and that uses hard and soft information typology to examine the quality of environmental disclosure.
... Green public transportation vehicles are designed to provide public transportation services, reduce carbon emissions [12][13][14][15][16][17], and achieve pro-environmental goals [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. However, as a result of the spread of the pandemic and the high risk of infection [35][36][37], people's willingness to go out and use public transportation has declined [27,32]. ...
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Using Meizhou City as an example, the aim of this study was to verify whether e-bike sharing systems can improve the convenience of engaging in leisure and tourism activities in cities, and thus increase residents’ well-being. First, quantitative research was carried out to collect data on users’ opinions. Then, qualitative research was carried out to obtain the opinions of experts. Finally, the investigation was conducted using multivariate review analysis. The results of the research showed that e-bikes should be classified based on electric quantity, the rental fee should be charged based on mileage, and the relevant corporate information should be integrated. It is also necessary to develop a software interface with functions for users to rent e-bikes and search for information related to consumption, leisure, and travel activities, and make promotion plans. Finally, people need to be encouraged to cycle to obtain the benefits of leisure and exercise. In this manner, the convenience of participation in leisure and tourism activities can be increased, people’s physical and mental health will be substantially improved, and the happiness index of the people and the city will increase.
... Y de una crisis económica, también bastante evidente, que en algunos países ha provocado caídas en la producción y en el empleo como no se observaban en décadas, y de la que no sabemos cuándo acabará. Aún más teniendo en cuenta que, a pesar de las opiniones dominantes, no es tan obvio que las ganancias de las medidas previstas para alcanzar la "neutralidad climática" superen con claridad a los costes (Lomborg, 2020). Y, probablemente, en medio de cambios geopolíticos de calado, quizá acelerados a consecuencia del manejo de la pandemia, tales como una creciente relevancia de China, cuyos gobernantes no parecen dispuestos a sacrificar el crecimiento económico en el altar de las energías renovables, y seguirán apostando en la medida en que lo crean necesario por el carbón y la energía nuclear 8 . ...
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A lo largo del último año se ha mantenido el tipo de discusión pública habitual sobre la problemática energética y medioambiental. En ella, según Eric Haymann, primero, no es obvio que sus protagonistas estén abiertos a todas las soluciones tecnológicas que podrían llevarnos, si es deseable, a la neutralidad en carbono en tres décadas. Segundo, tampoco está claro que las consideraciones de costes sean del todo realistas, especialmente los costes sistémicos de confiar cada vez más en fuentes de energía dependientes del tiempo que hace (solar, eólica). Tercero, “el impacto de la actual política climática en la vida cotidiana de la gente es todavía muy abstracto y aceptable para muchos hogares”, pero si nos tomamos en serio la llamada “neutralidad climática”, los cambios en la vida cotidiana serán omnicomprensivos, requerirán de aumentos considerables de precios para inducir a la gente a cambiar sus comportamientos, y de mayores dosis de ordeno y mando para aquellos a quienes ni siquiera baste la inducción de los precios más altos. Si tiene razón Haymann, se trataría de una discusión pública no del todo “adulta”, en la que una buena parte de los costes de las decisiones y algunas de las soluciones tecnológicas desaparecen del horizonte, y en la que al público en general, estando o no de acuerdo con las decisiones, se le hurta, de hecho, ese tipo de informaciones decisivas. Todo ello en un contexto en el que, para una buena parte del público, los impactos de los cambios y de los mayores costes quedan bastante difuminados. Este trabajo intenta, justamente, observar en qué medida ese público europeo participa, siquiera indirecta o implícitamente, en esa discusión pública. Intenta imaginar una suerte de conversación sobre cuestiones medioambientales que estaría protagonizada por cada una de las ciudadanías de los países que conforman la Unión Europea. Se trataría, en realidad, de una conversación implícita, que solo en parte estaría reflejada en las conversaciones y decisiones, a escala nacional y europea, de las elites políticas y de otro tipo. Lo que este trabajo hace es resaltar las perspectivas de los ciudadanos del común de cada país. Y lo hace a través del análisis de una veintena larga de Eurobarómetros sobre estos temas publicados en la última década larga.
... In his Nobel Prize speech, William Nordhaus, the architect of RICE/DICE, described global temperatures of 3 or 4 degrees above preindustrial levels-levels climate scientists view as potentially catastrophic-as 'optimal' given the high costs of adjustment in his models. This is a view most recently endorsed by Lomborg (2020). ...
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The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for humanity, with potentially very significant impacts for human health, become increasingly likely if societies maintain their current development paths. This paper assesses what is known about the likely economic implications of either current trends or the transformation to a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy in the years to 2050 for which GEO-6 calls. A key conclusion is that no conventional cost–benefit analysis for either scenario is possible. This is because the final cost of meeting various decarbonisation and resource-management pathways depends on decisions made today in changing behaviour and generating innovation. The inadequacies of conventional modelling approaches generally lead to understating the risks from unmitigated climate change and overstating the costs of a low-carbon transition, by missing out the cumulative gains from path-dependent innovation. This leads to a flawed conclusion as to how to respond to the climate emergency, namely that significant reductions in emissions are prohibitively expensive and, therefore, to be avoided until new, cost-effective technologies are developed. We argue that this is inconsistent with the evidence and counterproductive in serving to delay decarbonisation efforts, thereby increasing its costs. Understanding the processes which drive innovation, change social norms and avoid locking in to carbon- and resource-intensive technologies, infrastructure and behaviours, will help decision makers as they ponder how to respond to the increasingly stark warnings of natural scientists about the deteriorating condition of the natural environment.
... Mitigation pathways to limit the warming by 1.5°C by the end of the century are far behind, and they have received little attention. It is estimated that it will cost US$ 50 trillion to keep the global temperature rise below 3.0°C by the end of the 21st century [30]. If countries are to implement onshoring, and this cost is to be shared based on the emission percentage, it could be too expensive for nations like Brazil and SA to implement onshoring. ...
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The world has become a global village with companies investing in different nations to remain afloat and competitive. In the process of offshoring- outsourcing, companies and nations have become interdependent in their efforts to bridge the supply chain network. However, during a pandemic, such as the Coronavirus (COVID-19) that involved the closure of borders, and during which there was a high demand of lifesaving machines and personal protective equipment, many countries were left scrambling for critical medical products such as ventilators and personal protective equipment for doctors. Hence, the tendency away from offshoring and outsourcing to onshoring production. COVID-19 has elicited that countries need to invest in an onshore business if they are to remain afloat. However, investing in onshore (local) business calls for a tradeoff, which some countries cannot afford. Many countries lack skilled labour (developing countries), and where available, it is too expensive (developed countries) making onshore an expensive venture. Besides, promoting manufacturing companies means increased air pollution and greenhouse gases that are responsible for 4.2–7.0 million premature deaths every year, and which costs $4.6 trillion per year. Such death rates and cost can hinder the onshore business. Therefore, for countries to survive in the era of a pandemic, the best alternative is to build strong ties with offshore-outsource nations.
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This study explores the impact of the Paris Agreement on the determinants of firm-level capital structure decisions of listed contractor-owned Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) companies in the oil and gas (O&G) industry from 2000 to 2019. The study identified various financing structures between contractor-owned FPSO companies due to their individual and institutional characteristics. Tangibility, profitability, market-to-book (growth), size and effective tax rates are critical determinants of capital structure. Overall, the results support applying the pecking-order theory (PoT) from a firm-level and macro-economic context. The 2015 Paris Agreement ratification significantly impacted the capital structure determinants; the dynamic association has changed in the post-Paris period. Besides, the impact of the global financial crisis on leverage ratios was potentially mitigated by the upward trend in Brent crude oil price between 2007 and 2013.
Chapter
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that climate change causes at least 150,000 fatalities each year, with that figure predicted to double by 2030. A common worldwide objective is to enhance everyone’s health. Climate change is affecting human health globally. Not a risk creator or risk factor, rather a risk multiplier. Increase in the incidence of existing public health concerns, especially in communities with a high prevalence of climate-sensitive illnesses and disorders. Hotter and more frequent heatwaves raise the risk of myocardial infarction (heart attack), especially in individuals with coronary artery disease. Access to natural resources, services, and enrichment (such as culture) is required for civilizations and their inhabitants. In the South Pacific, negative health effects, especially non-communicable diseases (NCDs), are likely. Environments may cause illness and disease, as well as numerous harms, such as emotions of uneasiness and discontent. Changes in the environment affect the reproduction and spread of infectious organisms, vectors, human hosts, and disease reservoirs. Many Pacific Island nations confront significant difficulties today, including NCDs, infectious diseases, and climate change effects. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), NCD death rates in several Pacific Island countries (PICs) are already amongst the highest globally. There have been about 40 significant infectious disease outbreaks in the previous four years. Dengue, chikungunya, leptospirosis, and Zika virus illnesses are all connected to climate change. If climate change continues its current path, new patterns (and possibly new types) of health issues will develop when different thresholds are crossed later this century. This introspective study based on secondary data from books and publications as well as websites, web journals, reports, and government agencies. The study’s goal is to identify and characterize current and prospective health hazards in a community, population, or area. Assessing, planning, and evaluating adaptation (risk management) activities and assessing the extra-institutional, resource, and governance demands and needs on healthcare systems and larger population-based public health practice. This research could help Pacific islanders design and implement future climate change initiatives that improve structural and social determinants of health.KeywordsEnvironmental changeSouth PacificHealthNCDsDiseases
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Although the carbon pricing policy is a critical driving factor that will help China achieve economic growth, energy transition, and dual climate change mitigation goals, the kind of carbon pricing policy that will complement the country's current development situation remains controversial. We apply the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model to explore the heterogeneity and synergy of different carbon pricing policies, and the results indicate that it will be challenging to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The study find that the combined policy —a mix of carbon tax and carbon market policies — has the optimal emission reduction effect but comes with the highest economic cost, proving to be unsuitable in the long run. The carbon tax policy is an important transitional means to assist in emission reduction, which can serve as an important supplement to carbon market policy and be phased out after the market mechanism matures.
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Since the beginning of the 21st century, accompanied by the tremendous achievements of China's economic growth is an increasingly severe income gap between the rich and the poor. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2018, this study systematically examined the relationship among transport infrastructure, economic growth, carbon emissions, and income inequality in China, using the panel vector autoregressive model estimated by the generalized method of moments. We further divided China into three regions to investigate the regional heterogeneity of these relationships. The results show a long‐run equilibrium relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth, carbon emissions, and income inequality. Income inequality in the previous year significantly affects that in the current year positively. Whether at the national or regional level, economic growth affects income inequality negatively. For the national sample, the highway reduces income inequality, while the railway increases income inequality. For both the subsamples and the national sample, carbon emissions significantly increase income inequality and are the Granger test cause for income inequality. Furthermore, we discuss some of the possible mechanisms of these results. Our findings generate policy implications for reducing income inequality in regard to economic growth, transport infrastructure, and carbon emissions.
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Plain Language Summary Observed temperature has been steadily increasing over the last century and much of this warming can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, the maximum intensity (or potential intensity) a hurricane can achieve depends strongly upon sea surface temperature, with warmer temperatures producing stronger storms. From this perspective, we might expect that the warming surface temperatures are driving observable changes in hurricane intensity. To this end, we analyze climate model experiments to determine if the observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity can be attributed to human‐related emissions over the period 1958–2005. Of the 11 models analyzed, we find that only seven predict that hurricane potential intensity has changed in response to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The change in potential intensity differs across models, with one model predicting a decreasing trend in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, while two models predict an increasing trend in potential intensity. Different reanalysis data sets are likewise inconsistent. These results indicate that currently we cannot attribute changes in North Atlantic hurricane intensity to human‐related forcings. It is possible that as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, an unequivocal forced response in North Atlantic potential intensity may emerge in the future.
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The estimates used to value mortality risk reductions are a major determinant of the benefits of many public health and environmental policies. These estimates (typically expressed as the value per statistical life, VSL) describe the willingness of those affected by a policy to exchange their own income for the risk reductions they experience. While these values are relatively well studied in high-income countries, less is known about the values held by lower-income populations. We identify 26 studies conducted in the 172 countries considered low- or middle-income in any of the past 20 years; several have significant limitations. Thus there are few or no direct estimates of VSL for most such countries. Instead, analysts typically extrapolate values from wealthier countries, adjusting only for income differences. This extrapolation requires selecting a base value and an income elasticity that summarizes the rate at which VSL changes with income. Because any such approach depends on assumptions of uncertain validity, we recommend that analysts conduct a standardized sensitivity analysis to assess the extent to which their conclusions change depending on these estimates. In the longer term, more research on the value of mortality risk reductions in low- and middle-income countries is essential.
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The following four key messages derive from the Lancet Countdown’s 2018 report: 1 Present day changes in heat waves, labour capacity, vector-borne disease, and food security provide early warning of the compounded and overwhelming impact on public health that are expected if temperatures continue to rise. Trends in climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities show an unacceptably high level of risk for the current and future health of populations across the world. 2 A lack of progress in reducing emissions and building adaptive capacity threatens both human lives and the viability of the national health systems they depend on, with the potential to disrupt core public health infrastructure and overwhelm health services. 3 Despite these delays, a number of sectors have seen the beginning of a low-carbon transition, and it is clear that the nature and scale of the response to climate change will be the determining factor in shaping the health of nations for centuries to come. 4 Ensuring a widespread understanding of climate change as a central public health issue will be crucial in delivering an accelerated response, with the health profession beginning to rise to this challenge.
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Direct economic losses result when a hurricane encounters an exposed, vulnerable society. A normalization estimates direct economic losses from a historical extreme event if that same event was to occur under contemporary societal conditions. Under the global indicator framework of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the reduction of direct economic losses as a proportion of total economic activity is identified as a key indicator of progress in the mitigation of disaster impacts. Understanding loss trends in the context of development can therefore aid in assessing sustainable development. This analysis provides a major update to the leading dataset on normalized US hurricane losses in the continental United States from 1900 to 2017. Over this period, 197 hurricanes resulted in 206 landfalls with about US$2 trillion in normalized (2018) damage, or just under US$17 billion annually. Consistent with observed trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the continental United States since 1900, the updated normalized loss estimates also show no trend. A more detailed comparison of trends in hurricanes and normalized losses over various periods in the twentieth century to 2017 demonstrates a very high degree of consistency. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.
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In the past two decades there have been fears that many low-lying atoll islands around the world could disappear as a consequence of climate change and sea level rise, leading to mass migration and threatening the existence of several island nations. Here we show how sea level rise does not inevitably lead to coastal areas becoming uninhabitable, and that humans have an innate and often underestimated capacity to adapt to changes in their environment. To do so we showcase three instances of human- and earthquake-induced land subsidence that have taken place in the 21st century, where the coastal/island areas are still inhabited despite the challenge of living with higher water levels: the Tohoku coastline following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami (subsidence ∼0.4–1.0 m), the present day situation of coastal areas in Jakarta due to ground water extraction (>5.0 m), and the islands of Tubigon, Bohol in central Philippines after the 2013 Bohol Earthquake (∼1.0 m). Humans are able to adapt and arrive at solutions even when confronted with cases of rapid rises in water levels, and thus it is likely that in the future vulnerable coastlines will be engineered and largely remain at present day locations, particularly in densely populated areas. If anything, around densely populated areas it is more likely that humans will continue to encroach on the sea rather than the reverse. We caution, however, that small islands are not homogeneous, and many are unlikely to respond to rising sea levels in the manner that atolls do (in fact, many might just resort to build at higher elevations). Where engineering and other adaptation responses become necessary, the financial and human resource requirements may well be beyond capacity of some small islands, which could lead to impoverishment and associated challenges in many communities.
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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.
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